Mariners Sign Ken Giles
FEB. 18: It’s a two-year, $7MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Giles will earn a $1MM salary in 2021 and a $5MM salary in 2022. There’s also a $9.5MM option or a $500K buyout for 2023. Additionally, the contract features a $500K signing bonus.
FEB. 11: The Mariners are in agreement on a two-year contract with free-agent reliever Ken Giles, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Shannon Drayer of ESPN 710 first reported the news. Giles is a client of Rowley Sports Management.
Because he underwent Tommy John surgery as a member of the Blue Jays on Oct. 1, Giles will not be able to help the Mariners in 2021. However, if his recovery goes well, Giles’ history suggests he will emerge as a valuable part of the Mariners’ bullpen the next season. Giles, after all, has logged a 2.74 ERA/2.57 SIERA with well-above-average strikeout and walk rates (33.3 and 7.7 percent, respectively) across a combined 351 innings with the Phillies, Astros and Jays. The 30-year-old right-hander has also converted 115 of 130 save attempts and averaged better than 97 mph on his fastball.
Giles’ elbow issues limited him to 3 2/3 frames last year, but it would be difficult to find many relievers who were harder to face in 2019. That season, Giles threw 53 innings of 1.87 ERA/2.49 SIERA ball and ended up sixth among bullpen arms in K-BB percentage (31.7).
Brian Dozier Announces Retirement
Former All-Star second baseman Brian Dozier announced on Thursday that he’s retiring after a nine-year career in the Majors and at the age of 33.
An eighth-round pick by the Twins back in 2009, Dozier was never considered a premium prospect even within his own organization, topping out as Baseball America’s No. 10 Twins prospect heading into the 2012 season. That didn’t stop the University of Southern Mississippi product from not only making it to the big leagues but to cementing himself as one of the club’s better players of the past decade.
After an inauspicious debut in 2012, Dozier claimed the everyday second base job at Target Field in 2013 and steadily improved his output at the plate over the next several years. In a brief but excellent peak from 2013-17, Dozier was one of the game’s best all-around second basemen, hitting at a .252/.333/.465 clip with 145 home runs, 81 stolen bases and solid defense. Along the way, he won a Gold Glove, made an All-Star team and took home MVP votes in three different seasons. Dozier was worth about 22 wins above replacement in that five-year stretch according to both the Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs versions of the metric.
Unfortunately for both the Twins and for Dozier, he sustained a knee injury early in the 2018 campaign that severely hampered him at the plate. He was traded to the Dodgers that summer and struggled badly down the stretch — hardly the platform any player would want for his first trip to free agency.
Dozier landed a one-year, $9MM deal with the Nationals that winter and served as the club’s primary second baseman for most of the year. In many ways, Dozier enjoyed a rebound campaign, posting a .238/.340/.430 output with 20 homers and 20 doubles alike. His playing time faded late in the year, however, as hot-hitting trade acquisition Asdrubal Cabrera saw more and more of the playing time at second base. Dozier kept his spot on the Nationals’ postseason roster and was hailed as a vital presence in the clubhouse, but he tallied just seven plate appearances during the club’s World Series run.
Dozier signed a minor league deal with the Padres prior to the 2020 season before requesting his release and turning up for a brief seven-game stint with the Mets. That proved to be the final act of Dozier’s career.
All in all, Dozier will head into retirement as a career .244/.325/.441 hitter with 192 home runs, 231 doubles, 21 triples, 105 steals, 664 runs scored and 581 runs driven in. He made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and in his final full season took home a World Series ring for his role in the Nationals’ improbable Cinderella run. Dozier cleared $30MM in salary during a career that Baseball-Reference pegged at 22.7 WAR and FanGraphs valued at 23.7 WAR. Best wishes to Dozier on the next chapter.
Mariners Sign James Paxton
Feb. 18: The Mariners have formally announced their one-year deal with Paxton. Right-hander Andres Munoz, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was placed on the 60-day IL to open a roster spot.
Feb. 13: The Seattle Mariners have an agreement in place with James Paxton, per Chad Dey of Sportsnet650 (via Twitter). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirms the deal. Paxton will make $8.5MM on a one-year deal with bonuses upping the potential value to $10MM, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). “Big Maple” will earn an additional $750K with 10 games and $750K at 20 games, adds MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Paxton is represented by the Boras Corporation.
By signing for just one season, Paxton will have the opportunity to prove his good health and return to the open market. It’s no small thing that he’ll get to do so in an environment where he’s comfortable, having made T-Mobile Park his home from 2013 to 2018. Assuming good health, Paxton should have no trouble reaching those performance incentives to make this contract a clean $10MM.
Health hasn’t always been Paxton’s strong suit, of course. Before missing most of 2020 with a left flexor strain, Paxton spent time on the injured list with knee inflammation, left forearm contusions twice, lower back inflammation, a strained pectoral muscle, a left elbow contusion, a strained tendon in his middle finger, as well as twice hitting the shelf in 2014 with a left Latissimus dorsi muscle strain (read: back). He made just five starts for the Yankees this season after 29, 28, 24, and 20 the four years prior. Despite the litany of ailments, Paxton had largely persevered before missing most of 2020.
It’s worth mentioning, the Mariners have been clear about their intentions to run out a six-man rotation in 2021. Still, a healthy season would get Paxton well past the 20 games threshold, and the additional time between starts is more likely to help Paxton make it to 20 games than hurt. The 32-year-old will slot near the top of the Mariners’ rotation along with fellow southpaws Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justus Sheffield. Right-handers Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn are expected to round out the six-man crew.
For the Mariners, the deal has little downside. Seattle still has a payroll under $100MM and their long-term flexibility intact. Meanwhile, they get to return Paxton to the team that drafted him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. He made 102 starts over six seasons for the Mariners, earning himself a reputation as a starter with frontline potential by way of a 3.58 ERA/3.13 FIP over 582 1/3 innings to that point. The Mariners dealt him to the Yankees following the 2018 season for Dom Thompson-Williams, Erik Swanson, and Sheffield. The Mariners will now enjoy at least one season of Paxton and Sheffield in the rotation together.
On the diamond, Paxton has the potential to move the needle for the Mariners. Limited to just 20 1/3 inning in 2020, Paxton entered free agency on the heels of an uninspiring 6.64 ERA. His 90.7 mph opponents’ exit velocity was a career-high, and his average heater dipped by about three miles per hour. A 32.1 percent groundball rate continued a two-year spike in flyball rate, which led to more home runs allowed in the Bronx. Prior to joining the Yankees, however, Paxton had a 44.7 percent groundball rate.
Many of Paxton’s other metrics, however, were more bullish. He registered a 4.37 FIP/3.88 SIERA, typically-strong 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 7.8 percent walk rate that was better than the league average of 9.2 percent. At this price point, betting on a return to his career norms is a reasonable gamble for the M’s, who continue to position themselves as a potential sleeper in a year when the AL West looks more wide open than ever.
J.T. Realmuto Suffers Fractured Thumb
The Phillies kicked off Spring Training with some brutal news for fans. Star catcher J.T. Realmuto recently sustained a small fracture in his right thumb, manager Joe Girardi announced to reporters (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki). The injury occurred six days ago when catching a bullpen session, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.
Realmuto’s thumb will be immobilized for the next two weeks, and while the Phils are hopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day, there’s no guarantee that’ll be the case. It’s certainly not the way the team or Realmuto hoped to kick off his newly inked five-year, $115.5MM contract.
Realmuto will be reevaluated after that immobilization period, at which point the club will have a better timeline for his return to games. If Realmuto is forced onto the injured list to begin the season, the Phillies would likely turn to Andrew Knapp as the primary catcher in his absence. Rafael Marchan could get a look as the backup role in that scenario, given that he’s already on the 40-man roster. If not Marchan, one of Jeff Mathis or Christian Bethancourt could get the nod. Both would need to be added to the 40-man roster, however, as they’re in Spring Training as non-roster invitees at the moment.
Padres Sign Mark Melancon
Feb. 18: The Padres have announced the signing. Mike Clevinger was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Clevinger, of course, is expected to miss the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.
Feb. 17: Melancon will be guaranteed $3MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’ll earn a $2MM salary in 2021, and there’s a $1MM buyout on a a mutual option for the 2022 season, Heyman adds. The contract allows Melancon to earn another $2MM via incentives.
Feb. 12: The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.
Melancon, 36 next month, adds a former All-Star closer to an already deep Friars bullpen. He’ll give skipper Jayce Tingler another option for ninth-inning work, joining Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan as closer candidates in San Diego. Based on his recent work, Melancon could well jump to the front of the line as the favorite for saves.
Melancon just finished up the final season of a four-year, $62MM contract that briefly stood as the all-time record for a reliever. (Both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen topped that mark within weeks of Melancon signing.) The deal didn’t exactly pay dividends for the Giants, as Melancon battled injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but he bounced back with a strong showing in 2019 and was quite strong over the past season-plus following a trade to the Braves.
Melancon pitched 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, racking up 22 saves while posting strong strikeout and walk percentages (26.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). He’s also one of the game’s leading ground-ball pitchers, evidenced by a whopping 61.4 percent mark over the past two years.
Despite the success in Atlanta, there are some red flags surrounding Melancon. In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. He still excelled at inducing weak contact and ought to benefit from a generally strong defensive infield defense, though.
The Friars already had not only a crowded but also relatively immobile bullpen (from a roster flexibility standpoint). None of Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen or Javy Guerra can be optioned to the minors. Pagan has options but surely isn’t in danger of being sent down, and Tim Hill (who also has options) is one of the team’s three lefties. It could be tough for the Padres to continue carrying the out-of-options Guerra, a converted shortstop who has yet to find much success in Triple-A or the Majors, but they may not want to give up on him considering his heater averages better than 98 mph.
Those, of course, are the types of decisions that playoff-caliber clubs are forced to make when adding improvements, and the Padres have solidified themselves as just that. After making the postseason for the first time under newly promoted president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in 2020, the Padres have added the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim this winter while also re-signing Jurickson Profar. Melancon is the latest, and perhaps the final, piece of an active offseason that has deepened an already-talented team which looks increasingly capable of giving the World Champion Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.
Cubs Sign Jake Arrieta
It’s reunion season in Chicago. The Cubs on Wednesday announced that they’ve signed right-hander Jake Arrieta to a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second season. Arrieta, a Boras Corporation client, is reportedly guaranteed $6MM, which will be paid out in the form of a $4MM salary in 2021 and a $2MM buyout on next year’s $10MM option. He can also earn a $250K bonus for reaching each of 150, 160, 170 and 180 innings.
Arrieta, who struggled at the beginning of his career as an Oriole, joined the Cubs alongside Pedro Strop in a franchise-altering trade in 2013 and was an enormous success with the team through 2017. He earned a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series title (2016) as a Cub, and he also recorded a sterling 2.73 ERA/3.49 SIERA across 803 regular-season innings with the team.
The Cubs were in touch with Arrieta throughout his free agency, but they moved in a different direction, signing right-hander Yu Darvish to a six-year contract while Arrieta was still looking for a new team. Arrieta’s return to the Cubs, somewhat coincidentally, comes as the team is looking to make up some of the innings lost when dumping the remainder of Darvish’s salary in a trade with the Padres.
The Phillies may not have been expecting another Cy Young out of Arrieta when they signed him to a three-year, $75MM deal with a multi-season option, but they surely hoped to be getting an above-average starter. That, of course, did not prove to be the case.
While Arrieta had a respectable debut campaign with the Phils, his 2019 and 2020 seasons were marred by injuries, resulting in his worst performance since breaking out with the Cubs in the first place. Overall, Arrieta threw 352 2/3 innings with the Phillies in that three-year term, logging a disappointing 4.36 ERA/4.57 SIERA that was more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm than a difference-maker at the top of the staff.
Because of his mediocre performance and health issues in Philadelphia, Arrieta had no chance to rake in another high-paying contract this offseason. But the soon-to-be 35-year-old should earn plenty of starts now that he is back with the Cubs, who have just two proven options ahead of him in Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. Alec Mills, Trevor Williams and Adbert Alzolay look like the most realistic candidates to pitch out of the Cubs’ rotation, and they’ll probably all get their share of innings. Like most teams, the Cubs will likely cycle through a wide array of starting pitching options as they look to ease their staff’s transition from last year’s shortened 60-game slate back to a full 162-game workload.
Arrieta becomes the latest modestly priced free-agent addition of a 2020-21 offseason that has seen the Cubs add several new players without concretely improving. Ownership clearly wanted to scale back the payroll, hence the trades of Darvish and Victor Caratini and the non-tenders of Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora. The front office, under newly promoted president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, has signed Arrieta, Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Williams and Jake Marisnick since a report that owner Tom Ricketts gave the green light for a “slight” payroll increase.
In addition to that group, the Cubs also picked up Davies in return for Darvish. They’ve certainly created the possibility that this wider base of talent could outperform the players they’re more or less replacing, and if it works out that way, Hoyer & Co. will receive plenty of praise for threading the needle between creating future flexibility and fielding a winning product.
That said, it’s also a risk-laden group with several players in need of bounceback campaigns. The Cubs aren’t clearly better than they were with Darvish, Schwarber, Caratini and a higher payroll and are arguably quite a bit worse. If this group struggles, the 2020-21 offseason will be widely viewed as a missed opportunity, given that only one team (the Cardinals) made any clear upgrades in what should’ve been a wide-open race for the division title.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that it’d be a one-year term. Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a deal was in place, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided financial details (Twitter links).
Cubs To Sign Brandon Workman
8:38am: The two sides have a Major League deal in place, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
8:34am: The Cubs are closing in on a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Brandon Workman, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal in question would guarantee Workman $1MM with another $2MM available via incentives. The Workman deal comes one day after Cubs president of baseball operations signaled that he expected to soon add one more reliever on a Major League deal.
Outside of a catastrophically bad 13 2/3 innings with the Phillies last year, Workman has ranged anywhere from a solid to shutdown late-inning arm in recent years. From 2017 up until last year’s trade to Philadelphia, the 32-year-old Workman gave the Red Sox 159 1/3 innings of 2.65 ERA ball with a 28.8 percent strikeout rate, an 11.8 percent walk rate and a 46.4 percent grounder rate.
Workman’s 2019 season, in particular, was a source of intrigue. The righty stepped up as Boston’s primary closer and posted a 1.88 ERA with a ridiculous 36.4 percent strikeout rate, but he also turned in a bloated 15.7 percent walk rate that was far and away the highest of his career.
In 2019, Workman scaled back the use of his four-seamer and cutter that year and leaned into his curveball at a career-high 47.2 percent, perhaps contributing both to the spike in walks and the much larger spike in strikeouts. He was following the same gameplan in 2020, and doing so with better control of the strike zone in a limited sample, before greatly reducing his curveball usage in Philadelphia. Whether Workman lost the feel for his curveball with the Phillies or lost confidence in the pitch (perhaps both), the once-wipeout offering quickly became the source of his struggles. After hitting just .135/.250/.195 on plate appearances ending with Workman’s curveball in 2019, opponents uncorked a staggering .436/.511/.641 slash against that same hook in 2020.
The Cubs will obviously look to restore Workman’s curveball to peak levels. If they’re able to do so, Workman ought to be a considerable bargain at his modest price point. He should have the opportunity to pitch in high-leverage situations, reprising his role as a setup man for former Boston teammate and current Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel.
Hoyer Calls Bryant Trade Rumors “Inaccurate,” Says Cubs Expect To Sign A Reliever
Recent reports of trade talks between the Cubs and Mets regarding star third baseman Kris Bryant are inaccurate, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer tells reporters in a Zoom conference call (Twitter link via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). Hoyer emphasized that he is not engaged in any active trade conversations and has not had recent trade talks. “By and large, I would expect this is what our team will look like,” Hoyer added (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago).
That’s not to say that there won’t be slight tweaks. Hoyer left open the door for some potential minor league deals even after camp opens, and he more interestingly tipped his hand that the club could soon have another Major League free-agent signing to announce for the bullpen (via Wittenmyer).
Bullpen help would be plenty sensible for the Cubs even if their entire current group were healthy, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Hoyer revealed that right-hander Rowan Wick is behind schedule due to an intercostal strain, while southpaw Kyle Ryan is likely to be placed on the Covid-19 list and will have his start to Spring Training delayed as a result. As a reminder, that’s not an indication that Ryan himself tested positive; players can be placed on the Covid-19 list due to exposure to positive cases as well.
That pair of absences likely leaves the Cubs with a mix of Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Jason Adam, Duane Underwood Jr., Brad Wieck, Robert Stock, Dillon Maples and Jonathan Holder, among a few others with even less experience, on the 40-man roster. Adam Morgan, Joe Biagini and Rex Brothers give the Cubs some additional veteran options on non-roster deals, but it’s pretty clear that the group could use some additional augmentation.
Hoyer unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to the identity of the apparently forthcoming signing, but the market still has plenty of interesting names from which to choose. Right-hander Jeremy Jeffress posted solid results but ugly secondary marks in a shortened 2020 season with the Cubs, and veterans like David Robertson, Shane Greene, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Workman, Pedro Strop, Jose Alvarez, Tony Watson and Oliver Perez are among the many yet-unsigned free agents.
We don’t have a clear idea of the Cubs’ budget at this point, but after dumping Yu Darvish‘s salary and non-tendering Kyle Schwarber, the Cubs are nowhere near the luxury-tax threshold and have their lowest bottom-line payroll since 2015. Ownership recently gave the green light on spending a bit of money after those aggressive cuts earlier in the winter, which has resulted in the additions of Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams and Jake Marisnick.
Twins To Sign Matt Shoemaker
The Twins and free-agent right-hander Matt Shoemaker have reached a one-year, $2MM agreement, pending a physical, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. The deal includes up to $250K in performance bonuses. Shoemaker is a client of ISE Baseball.
Shoemaker began his career as a member of the Angels, with whom he pitched from 2013-18 and typically provided respectable production as a mid- to back-end type of starter. But Shoemaker had some injury issues then, throwing just 108 2/3 innings in his final two seasons as an Angel, before moving on to the Blue Jays prior to 2019.
Shoemaker was also unable to stay healthy during his two years as a Blue Jay, as a torn ACL limited him to 28 2/3 innings in 2019, while shoulder problems held him to a matching 28 2/3 frames last season. That said, Shoemaker mostly did a decent job in Toronto when he was able to take the mound. The 34-year-old now owns a 3.86 ERA/3.88 SIERA with above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 21.8 and 5.9, respectively, in 602 1/3 major league innings.
Shoemaker will be the second free-agent signing this offseason for the Twins’ rotation, which added J.A. Happ earlier in the winter. Those two are in line to complement Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda at the beginning of the season, though Randy Dobnak could also push for a starting spot. It’s unclear if the Shoemaker addition will affect whether the Twins re-sign Jake Odorizzi, arguably the No. 1 starter left in free agency.
Rays Agree To Deal With Rich Hill
9:22pm: Hill will earn $2.5MM on a one-year deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
8:32pm: The two sides have a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of Fansided tweets.
8:22pm: The Rays are progressing toward a deal with free-agent left-hander Rich Hill, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
Hill will turn 41 in March, and though he was hardly outstanding during the first decade of his career, he has only gotten better with age. Dating back to his stunning renaissance in 2015, Hill – despite possessing 90 mph velocity – has logged a 2.93 ERA/3.57 SIERA with a quality strikeout percentage of 28.6 and and a better-than-average walk rate of 7.9 percent in 503 innings as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics, Dodgers and Twins. The only concern has been Hill’s durability, as various injuries have limited him and he hasn’t hit the 136-inning mark in a season since he revived his career. He threw 38 2/3 frames as a Twin during the truncated 2020 campaign, averaging fewer than five innings out of his eight starts.
Of course, if there’s any team unconcerned about a hurler going deep into games, it’s the Rays. They’re known to rely heavily on their bullpen, evidenced in part by their opener strategy, so Hill could be an ideal fit for the club. The Rays lost 2020 starters Blake Snell (trade) and Charlie Morton (free agency) earlier in the offseason after an AL-winning year, but the small-budget team is trying to put together a low-priced rotation with Hill, fellow offseason additions Chris Archer and Michael Wacha (and potentially Collin McHugh), as well as holdovers Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough.