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Royals Extend Whit Merrifield

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The Royals have announced a four-year deal with second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported. The contract will guarantee him $16.25MM, Morosi tweets, and includes a club option for a fifth year

Merrifield earns salaries of $1MM, $5MM, $6.75MM, and $2.75MM, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan has the breakdown (Twitter links). While that may seem like an odd order at first glance, the front-loaded structure benefits the player by moving up his earnings (notably, in this case, in advance of the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement). The contract also comes with a $750K buyout on the club option, which can be exercised at $10.5MM. Rather than incentive pay, the deal includes $2MM in possible escalators in its final two guaranteed seasons, based upon plate appearances and awards.

Since Merrifield was already under control through 2022, his new deal will cover his final pre-arbitration season and his three arb-eligible years. Merrifield, a client of The L. Warner Companies, will also give up the rights to one prospective free-agent season via option. Of course, that’ll come after he has already reached his 34th birthday — a critical factor in understanding this agreement.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

MLBTR profiled Merrifield as an extension candidate last March, explaining that he was a non-traditional, but nevertheless intriguing, potential target for a deal. The concept was rather simple, and remains largely the same now, though he has one more year of service and has further boosted his on-field value in the interim. For Merrifield, a deal offers a chance to ensure he locks in significant career earnings, cutting off the risks associated with his relatively advanced age — a factor that also significantly limits his future free agent upside. For the team, it’s an opportunity to achieve cost certainty and some savings for the arbitration seasons while also picking up control over an additional season of the two-time All-Star’s services.

In terms of the financial figures involved, there’s not a ton of cash at stake. For a player who remains a league-minimum earner even after hitting his 30th birthday, though, it’s a big chunk of change. Merrifield might have anticipated topping $16.25MM in his three seasons of arb to come, but not by a massive amount. Even reaching that level of pay would assume he’s at full health and continues at least to be worthy of regular playing time. Looking at a few recent second base comps, DJ LeMahieu earned exactly at that level ($16.3MM) over his three arb years. It’s certainly possible that Merrifield could have topped that with more campaigns like his 2018 effort. On the other hand, despite a higher first-year starting salary than LeMahieu, Joe Panik is now on track to earn a good bit less (he’s at $7.25MM through two seasons) after experiencing a setback season.

From the Royals’ perspective, the risk is limited and there are some clear benefits to this new pact. The broader state of the franchise is also an important consideration, though. Although the club is coming off of a 58-win season and figures to miss the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, it has consistently turned away trade interest in Merrifield. General manager Dayton Moore declared prior to last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline that the Royals “need [Merrifield] in our city and on our team.” Thus, the late-blooming standout’s extension will serve as the organization’s latest vote of confidence not only in Merrifield, but in its broader slate of MLB and near-MLB talent.

Cashing in on the affordable club control over Merrifield through a trade surely had its appeal as well. Indications are that such an approach was at least explored at the 2018 trade deadline and perhaps in the offseason as well, though Moore made clear more recently to rival orgs that Merrifield was staying put. Of course, the pact may not preclude the Royals from trading him in the relatively near future. The Padres, for instance, awarded reliever Brad Hand a team-friendly extension last January and then traded him to the Indians in July for an offer they simply couldn’t pass up. Such a quick flip seems less likely in this case, considering the Royals’ faith in Merrifield and the team’s desire to avoid a full-blown rebuild. Generally, though, the contract shouldn’t hurt Merrifield’s marketability, even if it doesn’t vastly increase the value of his control rights.

So, what are the Royals getting for their money? A ninth-round pick of the K.C. org back in 2010, the 30-year-old Merrifield has likely emerged as the Royals’ premier player in the club’s post-Lorenzo Cain/Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas era. Merrifield debuted with a respectable showing in 2016, albeit over just half a season (81 games, 332 plate appearances), before truly breaking out the next year. Since 2017, the righty-hitting Merrifield has accrued 8.1 fWAR (including 5.2 in 2018, tying him for 15th among position players) and slashed .296/.347/.449 with 31 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 1,337 PAs.

Merrifield didn’t offer much power in 2018 (12 home runs, .134 ISO), but he still logged a terrific 120 wRC+ on the strength of a league-leading 192 hits, a .304 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. When Merrifield did reach base, he terrorized opposing clubs, evidenced in part by his league-high 45 steals on 55 attempts. He was also eminently durable, appearing in 158 games, and effective in the field. Merrifield earned plus defensive marks in 900-plus innings at the keystone and upward of 300 frames in the outfield, including 241 in center.

The broad profile is of a versatile, multi-functional player who’d clearly be of interest to every single team in baseball. That’s a remarkable state of affairs given where Merrifield’s career stood entering the 2016 season, which he opened at the Triple-A level for a third-straight time, on the heels of a mediocre .265/.317/.364 showing for Omaha in the prior campaign. The intervening development is a credit both to the Royals and Merrifield, so it’s only appropriate that team and player each seem to have a path to benefit from this new contract — modest though it may be in its overall impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Sign Hunter Strickland

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JAN. 27: Strickland will earn a $1.3MM salary this year and could end up making nearly $2.6MM via incentives based on appearances and games finished, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports.

JAN. 24: The Mariners have agreed on a one-year contract with righty reliever Hunter Strickland, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter).  Though only a one-year contract, Seattle still retains control over Strickland through the 2021 season, via Strickland’s two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons.

Strickland was something of a surprise addition to the free agent relief market when the Giants designated him for assignment in November, effectively releasing him prior to the non-tender deadline.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Strickland for a modest $2.5MM salary in 2019, so combined with the team control through 2021, it raised some eyebrows when the Giants parted ways with the 30-year-old.

2018 was, however, the weakest of Strickland’s four full MLB seasons.  He posted career-worst totals in ERA (3.97), homer rate (9.1%), grounder rate (38.1%), strikeout rate (7.35), and swinging strike rate, while allowing far more hard contact than in past years — Strickland’s 42.3% hard-hit ball rate dwarfed his 31.7% career rate.  The real lowlight was a two-month DL stint due to a fractured hand, an injury suffered when Strickland punched a door in anger after a blown save.

The Giants may have simply felt that a change in scenery was necessary, so the Mariners now get the opportunity at a potential bargain if Strickland returns to his old form.  Over 173 2/3 innings and 195 appearances from 2015-17, Strickland was a quality part of San Francisco’s bullpen, posting a 2.75 ERA, 2.84 K.BB rate, and 8.6 K/9.  He could find himself in line for saves as part of the Mariners’ drastically overhauled bullpen, with Cory Gearrin and Anthony Swarzak also in the mix for closer duty.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Pursuing Manny Machado

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TODAY: The Padres are considering a face-to-face meeting with Machado, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin tweets.  Machado held some well-publicized meetings with the Yankees, White Sox, and Phillies last month, and it isn’t known if he has sat down with any other mystery suitors.  As Lin and Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday (subscription required), however, multiple sources said they’d be “shocked” if San Diego signed Machado or Bryce Harper, with another source describing the Padres as a “longshot” for either player.

FRIDAY: The Padres have jumped into the Manny Machado derby as a late entrant and hope to sign the four-time All-Star as their primary third baseman, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. While the Friars weren’t one of the early “mystery teams” for Machado, Acee notes, they’ve recently entered the bidding given the unexpectedly quiet market for Machado to this point.

The extent to which the Padres are willing to go in order to sign Machado remains to be seen, though the Friars did sign Eric Hosmer to an eight-year contract that came with a $144MM guarantee just a year ago. Machado is two years younger than Hosmer was when he signed that contract and, of course, has a vastly superior overall track record.

Signing Machado would give the Padres a premium third baseman to pair with fast-rising prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias. If a Machado agreement does come to fruition, that quartet (Hosmer included) would seemingly comprise San Diego’s infield of the future, as both Tatis and Urias figure to receive the opportunity to cement themselves as regulars at some point in the 2019 season.

San Diego stood out as a plausible “mystery team” for Machado, as noted yesterday at MLBTR, given the team’s wealth of young talent, relatively open long-term payroll outlook and lack of a premier third-base prospect. While paying Machado at an annual rate upward of $30MM would clearly be a steep price for a Padres team that not long ago had a collective team payroll only a bit north of that ($37.9MM in 2010), the organization has just $64.25MM on the books in 2020 and $44MM in 2021. Beyond that, Hosmer’s contract was actually front-loaded, meaning his $21MM salary will actually drop to $13MM per year in the final three seasons of the contract.

Add to those circumstances that the Padres have a veritable tidal wave of young talent on the cusp of the Majors, all of which will be pre-arbitration for at least three seasons and arb-eligible for three years after that, and the team looks like it can support a few sizable annual salaries even if it continues to operate on a fairly restricted budget. Bringing Machado into the fold could slash the team’s 2019 profitability — though adding him to the mix would surely boost ticket sales, at least early on — but the money they still owe to Phil Hughes, Jedd Gyorko and Kazuhisa Makita will all be off the books after 2019 (none of the three are on the 40-man roster any longer). Similarly, the Padres will see their commitment to Hector Olivera finally evaporate after the 2020 campaign.

Payroll could be manipulated/reduced in other ways, as well. Certainly, the first season of Machado’s contract could come at a discounted rate, with higher salaries put into place in the forthcoming seasons. Additionally, the Padres are known to have been seeking a trade partner for Wil Myers, and if they can successfully move the remaining $64MM on his contract (or a portion of it), that’d also go a long way toward clearing room on the ledger for Machado.

At a certain point, given the reportedly tepid interest in Machado was bound to lead to some unexpected clubs jumping into the mix (if, in fact, interest ever was tepid; agent Dan Lozano had plenty to say on the to-date reporting regarding his client in a statement issued last week). The Phillies and White Sox are still known to be serious suitors for Machado’s services, with the Yankees lurking on the periphery at the very least. There were reportedly multiple “mystery” teams in the mix for Machado as well, however, so it’s quite possible that another suitor or two will emerge before he puts pen to paper and brings finality to his long-running free-agent saga.

Agent: Nicholas Castellanos Prefers Trade Before Spring Training

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TODAY: Avila addressed the comments today, telling MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery (Twitter links) and other media that “That’s something where he felt like he needed to express that publicly. That’s fine.  [The comments] have no effect on the team or his performance or anything like that. He’ll come in in great shape. He’ll come in and compete and he’ll be one of our better hitters in the lineup and I expect him to have a great season.”  The general manager also reiterated that a trade “can’t be forced.”

THURSDAY: Nicholas Castellanos has seen his name bandied about the rumor circuit enough to know that the Tigers intend to trade him before this season’s non-waiver deadline, and his agent, David Meter, tells Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press that Castellanos would prefer to open Spring Training with a new team if it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be moved eventually anyhow. However, Detroit general manager Al Avila said today (link via Will Burchfield of 97.1 FM The Ticket) that the market for Castellanos has been “frustrating” and plainly stated that, “…right now, really, I don’t have anything going on,” with regard to Castellanos talks.

Castellanos, 27 in March, is entering his final season of club control and has already agreed to a $9.95MM salary for the upcoming season. It’s no secret that the Tigers are well into a large-scale rebuild, and as a pending free agent, Castellanos stands out as an obvious trade piece. The two sides have reportedly discussed long-term arrangements in the past but failed to find a common ground.

There’s little denying that Castellanos is a high-quality bat that could deepen the lineup for any contending club. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted a combined .285/.336/.495 with 67 home runs, 107 doubles and 19 triples in 1790 trips to the plate. He’s cut back on his strikeout rate over the past two seasons as well and, in 2018, notched a career-best 7.2 percent walk rate that helped him post a career-high .354 on-base percentage. Castellanos isn’t the premier slugger that the Tigers had on their hands in J.D. Martinez, but he’s also younger and less expensive.

Like Martinez, however, the primary knock on Castellanos is his outfield defense. The converted third baseman shifted to right field full-time last season due to poor defense at his original position, but the results in the outfield weren’t any better. Castellanos graded out extremely poorly (-19 DRS, -12.9 UZR and a league-worst -24 Outs Above Average), which makes him a tough sell to a National League club. While it’s probably fair to expect that his glovework can improve with more reps at a still relatively new position, any team acquiring Castellanos to play in the field regularly would do so knowing that he’d be giving back a portion of the value provided by his excellent bat.

Fenech reports that the Tigers’ asking price for Castellanos has been one “top-level” prospect, adding that Detroit would need to feel it was receiving better value than a potential pick in the 2020 draft. That indicates that the organization considers Castellanos a potential qualifying offer candidate following the ’19 season.

Beyond Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, the Tigers are in a tough spot with regard to trading Castellanos given that several plausible suitors have recently filled holes in other ways. The Dodgers reportedly struck a deal with A.J. Pollock just a few hours ago, and the Braves re-signed Nick Markakis earlier this week. The Rays, meanwhile, signed Avisail Garcia last week, and the division-rival Twins, who could’ve viewed Castellanos as a DH candidate, instead signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year deal with an option.

The Astros were also said to be in on Cruz and stand out as a speculative on-paper fit for Castellanos, and the Indians are known to be seeking some additional outfield help. Perhaps the Phillies could view Castellanos as something of a fallback option if their higher-profile pursuits don’t pan out, but Rhys Hoskins’ poor defense in left field was a catalyst for this offseason’s trade of Carlos Santana, and Castellanos’ struggles were similar, if not more substantial, to those of Hoskins. The Giants are reportedly in the mix for outfield help but don’t seem likely to pay a premium for a one-year rental (and also surely are wary of the defensive question marks). Similar sentiments could apply to the White Sox.

Of course, teams interested in Castellanos also figure to be reluctant to pay a premium when there are still so many corner-outfield options available in free agency. Marwin Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Denard Span and Derek Dietrich are just some of the many alternatives in free agency, and while Castellanos is a safe bet to outperform most of that bunch (excepting Marwin Gonzalez, perhaps), the cost of acquisition would be only money. In the case of all but Marwin, in fact, each of that bunch should cost less than Castellanos’ $9.95MM total commitment. The trade market also has alternatives in the form of Hunter Renfroe, Eric Thames and others.

It’s understandable that Castellanos would want to know his fate sooner rather than later, but at the same time, there’s a greater supply of players with his skill set (or close to it) than there is demand. An injury to a contending club’s designated hitter or corner outfielder in Spring Training could create a new suitor, however, so perhaps it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Castellanos if he’s still with the Tigers when camp opens.

Athletics Sign Marco Estrada

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The Athletics have announced a one-year deal with free-agent right-hander Marco Estrada, as Jane Lee of MLB.com first reported (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $4MM, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).

The former Brewers/Blue Jays hurler is a client of TWC Sports. To clear roster space, the club has outrighted just-claimed righty Parker Bridwell, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

This move represents the latest short-term strike from an Oakland organization that wants to boost its pitching staff in the near-term without tying up long-term resources. Naturally, that means taking some chances on players who have not been at top form of late, and Estrada certainly matches that characterization.

The A’s previously inked Mike Fiers and Joakim Soria, but it was clear that the rotation, in particular, was in need of at least one more addition. It’s certainly still possible that other hurlers will be added, at least on minor-league deals.

As for Estrada, he’ll be looking to bounce back from a pair of less-than-effective seasons. Lower body and back issues may partially have been to blame, so returning to full health could make a difference in and of itself. Otherwise, it’s a question whether Estrada can hold off the hands of time for at least one more campaign.

Last year, working in his fourth straight season in Toronto, Estrada posted a brutal 5.64 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He was stung, especially, by the long ball. While he only allowed dingers on a reasonable 11.2% of the flyballs put in play against him, that still worked out to 1.82 per nine, due to the large number of flies he permits.

Estrada still works in more or less the same fastball velocity range (89.0 mph) that he long has, though it did dip in the second half as his struggles increased. He also sat at a typical 10.1% swinging-strike rate last year. Perhaps, then, much of his physical skill remains intact.

The A’s surely won’t be expecting an ace-level performance, of course, but they obviously feel confident that Estrada will provide a good volume of solid innings. He has mostly done just that over the course of his MLB career.

Indians Re-Sign Oliver Perez

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The Indians announced Friday that they’ve re-signed left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. It’s a one-year contract with a vesting option for the 2020 season for the Scott Boras client. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Perez will be guaranteed $2.5MM (Twitter link). Perez has a $2.75MM club option that will automatically vest if he reaches 55 games pitched, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The option can also vest at $3MM if he appears in 60 games.

Oliver Perez | David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Perez, 37, quietly enjoyed a surprising career renaissance with the Indians last season, working to a sparkling 1.39 ERA with 12.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate in 32 1/3 innings of work. Perez’s workload in the Majors was limited by the fact that he opened the season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate after agreeing to a minor league deal in hopes of rebuilding his stock. The opportunity to do so didn’t present itself with the Yankees, but Perez latched on with Cleveland on a big league deal in early June and firmly put himself back on the map as a viable bullpen option over the season’s final four months.

While one might think that Perez will serve as a left-handed specialist, as he has in the past, his dominance in 2018 should earn him opportunities regardless of opponent. Righties and lefties alike were utterly befuddled by Perez last year; he held left-handed opponents to a .194/.215/.274 slash, which is excellent but still pales in comparison to the comical .104/.218/.104 slash to which he limited righties.

It’s been a quiet offseason for Cleveland, with Perez somewhat incredibly representing their first Major League free-agent signing of the offseason. The Indians have been more active on the trade front, though they’ve dealt away more MLB talent (Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion) than they’ve acquired while also losing free agents Michael Brantley (to the Astros) and Cody Allen (to the Angels).

That makes for a puzzling offseason for a club that entered the winter widely expected to run away with its fourth straight division title in 2019. Cleveland may still be the favorites, but improvements by the Twins and White Sox alike will give the Tribe a tougher time in securing a division title — especially considering the lack of improvement this winter. Payroll issues, however, have been said to be a very real limitation in Cleveland after a franchise-record figure in 2018, and it doesn’t seem as if the team is poised to make any notable expenditures between now and Opening Day. All that said, if Perez is able to remotely approximate last season’s excellence, he’ll help to solidify a bullpen that was in dire need of augmentation.

Mets To Sign Justin Wilson

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The Mets are in agreement on a contract with free-agent lefty Justin Wilson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The ACES client’s contract is still pending the completion of a physical. Assuming that checks out, he’ll be paid a total of $10MM over two years, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

Justin Wilson | Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Wilson, 31, will give the Mets a much-needed lefty to a bullpen where the previous top options included an inexperienced Daniel Zamora and non-roster invitee Luis Avilan. It’s possible that one or both of those southpaws will still pitch alongside Wilson in the ’pen, but the veteran Wilson will help to solidify the area of need and provide plenty of strikeouts along the way.

Wilson is coming off an up-and-down tenure with the Cubs, with whom he posted a strong 3.41 ERA and averaged 11.4 K/9 last season. While control was an issue early in his Cubs tenure, he righted the ship in that regard over the course of the 2019 season; after walking 30 hitters in his first 26 1/3 innings as a Cub, Wilson regained his control and issued a vastly more manageable 22 walks in his final 46 innings of work in ’18. Left-handed batters, in particular, struggled against Wilson this past season, hitting just .188/.301/.342. He’s been far more than a specialist throughout his career, however, holding right-handed opponents to a .210/.305/.323 line in parts of seven Major League seasons.

The addition of Wilson is the third notable pickup for the Mets and new GM Brodie Van Wagenen this winter, as they’ve previously acquired Edwin Diaz in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners and re-signed Jeurys Familia to a three-year, $30MM contract as well. That newly acquired trio (re-acquired — in Familia’s case) will be joined by righties Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in anchoring what should be an improved Mets bullpen in 2019.

With the signing, Wilson becomes the tenth free-agent reliever to sign a multi-year contract this offseason and the second to do so with the Mets (joining Familia). Adding an annual $5MM salary to the mix will push the Mets’ payroll a bit further north. While they’ll technically be on the hook for upwards of $163MM in 2019, they’ll also receive substantial compensation from insurance policies on both David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. At present, including the Wilson signing and the insurance money they’ll recoup from Wright and Cespedes, the Mets project to a roughly $149MM payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Yankees Sign Adam Ottavino

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Jan. 24: The Yankees have formally announced the signing. Ottavino will be paid $8MM annually, tweets Heyman, and he’ll receive a deferred $3MM signing bonus.

Jan. 17, 12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Adam Ottavino | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

Cubs To Sign Brad Brach

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1:24PM: Brach will earn at least $4.35MM in guaranteed money in 2019, Rosenthal tweets.  The mutual option is also more of a dual option for the 2020 season, similar to what we’ve seen in recent contracts for Zach Britton and Yusei Kikuchi.  If the Cubs exercise their option for 2020, Brach will receive $9.5MM over the course of the two seasons.  If Brach exercises his side of the option but the Cubs do not, Brach is still under team control for 2020 but at a lesser salary.

11:59AM: The Cubs have agreed to sign free agent reliever Brad Brach, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).  The deal is a one-year contract worth $3MM, as per Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports (Twitter links), and the two sides hold a mutual option for the 2020 season.  Brach, a client of Big League Management Company, will have to pass a physical before the deal is official.

After four years of excellent numbers out of the Orioles’ bullpen from 2014-17, Brach’s production stumbled in the first half of the 2018 season, as he posted a 4.85 ERA over 39 innings with Baltimore.  Brach had an untidy 4.4 BB/9 rate over that stretch, though an inflated BABIP may have somewhat unfairly contributed to Brach’s struggles.  After a deadline trade to the Braves, however, Brach looked more like his old self, delivering a 1.52 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 2.44 K/BB rate over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.

On the whole, Brach posted a career-best 46% grounder rate in 2018, though he also had a career-worst 35% hard-hit ball rate, far surpassing his previous high of 29.6%.  His fastball also averaged 94.4mph after three years of topping the 95mph threshold, though Brach also threw his fastball less often than usual last season, instead using his changeup with greater frequency in 2018 than in any season save 2015.

These warning signs and Brach’s age (33 in April) may have been enough to lower Brach’s price tag to just one guaranteed season.  (MLBTR ranked Brach 41st on our Top 50 Free Agents list, with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd projecting Brach for a two-year, $12MM deal.)  The mutual option does provide the right-hander with the ability to test free agency again next winter if he returns to his old form, making the deal essentially a pillow contract.

Brach served as Baltimore’s closer in 2017 when Britton was on the disabled list, and he could very well pick up some save opportunities early next season as Brandon Morrow recovers from November elbow surgery.  At the very least, Brach will provide some backing behind Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., or whomever ends up handling the ninth inning while Morrow is out, assuming Joe Maddon doesn’t deploy a committee approach.

Getting the 2013-17 version of Brach for, at most, $9.5MM over two years would be a nice coup for a Cubs team that has been facing a payroll crunch all winter.  Even the modest expenditure for Brach, however, puts Chicago into a higher Competitive Balance Tax bracket.  As per Roster Resource’s projections, the Cubs now have a luxury tax payroll over just under $229MM for next season, putting them in line for an additional tax beyond the usual 20% “first-time” rate for not only exceeding the $206MM luxury tax threshold, but exceeding it by more than $20MM.  There had been speculation that the Cubs could explore trading a big contract or two off its current roster to afford bullpen help or other acquisitions, and it remains to be seen if Theo Epstein’s front office has more moves in store to cut payroll and/or land new players.

Rangers Sign Asdrubal Cabrera

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TODAY: The Rangers have officially announced the signing.

TUESDAY: The Rangers have agreed to a one-year deal with veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, pending a physical, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal promises the Octagon client $3.5MM, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).

Initial indications are that Cabrera will primarily line up at third base in Texas. With the team’s middle-infield duo already settled, that certainly makes sense. No doubt, the chance for regular duty was a large part of the draw for the long-time big leaguer.

Cabrera, 33, has spent most of his career in the middle infield, with the lion’s share of that time coming at shortstop. He has lined up at third in recent seasons, but still only has accumulated 471 2/3 frames at the hot corner — representing less than four percent of his total action in the field at the game’s highest level.

While Cabrera has at times actually drawn improved grades on his glove at short in recent years, particularly in the eyes of UZR, his range has long represented a major demerit. Since he’s otherwise a surehanded fielder, and clearly has the arm to work on the left side of the infield, suggests that third base represents a sensible position.

Of course, the calling card for Cabrera remains his bat. He has actually turned things up over the past three years, posting a cumulative .274/.334/.456 slash in that span that’s reflective of his best earlier-career campaigns. The switch-hitter hits for a high average, delivers a fair bit of pop (23 home runs in 2018), and has long succeeded against both right- and left-handed pitching (career .752 OPS vs. .759 OPS, respectively).

In many regards, this seems to be a bit of a bargain rate for a solid veteran who has delivered so much offense in recent seasons. Though he fell just off of MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents, receiving honorable mention consideration, Cabrera is younger than Jed Lowrie (who signed for two years and $20MM) and easily outperformed Brian Dozier (one year, $9MM) at the plate last year.

Trouble was, this year’s market (including free agents and trade candidates) was loaded with players who could handle second and/or third base. Among them, Marwin Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison, Derek Dietrich, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, and others remain available on the open market (in addition, of course, to superstar Manny Machado). As it turns out, Cabrera will land just shy of Ian Kinsler in total guarantee, though he’ll avoid handing over control of another season via club option.

With the move, the Rangers will fill the void created when they traded Jurickson Profar earlier in the offseason. Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor will remain entrenched at shortstop and second base, respectively, though it surely doesn’t hurt that Cabrera could step in at either position if a need arises. Slugger Joey Gallo will presumably range the outfield, though he’s also an option at third base if there’s a need.

In conjunction with some other veteran additions — veteran backstop Jeff Mathis, three starters (Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Shelby Miller), and reliever Jesse Chavez — the Rangers have certainly shored up their roster. Among those acquisitions, only Mathis and Lynn required multiple years, and none of the salaries represents a major outlay for an organization that has a history of significant payrolls and is readying for a new stadium boost.

All in all, there’s greater upside on hand than you might have expected, particularly if a few key young players can make strides. Still, it’s tough to see this group making a strong run in a top-heavy American League. Maintaining a reasonably competitive product won’t allow the Rangers to pocket cost-savings and draft picks to the extent they might have otherwise, but it should help boost revenue and fan interest in the near-term. It’ll be interesting to see how the roster reloading effort shakes out in Texas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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