10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.
This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.
This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).
Here are the ten players:
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.
J.D. Martinez Will Not Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract
Outfielder J.D. Martinez will not opt out of his contract with the Red Sox, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The 32-year-old Martinez had the option of collecting a $2.5MM buyout to forgo the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract but will instead once again serve as Boston’s primary designated hitter in 2020.
Martinez, signed to a five-year, $110MM contract prior to the 2018 season, enjoyed a career-year with in the first season of that deal, hitting .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs. He followed that up with a terrific .304/.383/.557 slash through 657 trips to the plate.
That excellence at least created the possibility of Martinez opting out, but the market was also a poor one for Martinez, given the lack of contending clubs (or hopeful contenders) with an opening at designated hitter. The Astros (Yordan Alvarez), Angels (Albert Pujols/Shohei Ohtani) and Twins (Nelson Cruz), for instance, all have solidified options there. The Yankees have a number of options to rotate through their DH slot (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Mike Ford and Greg Bird among them). Other clubs, including the Rays, Indians and incumbent Red Sox all face varying degrees of payroll issues. National League teams, surely, would be reluctant to issue a multi-year pact to a player with such defensive limitations.
Beyond the clearly sub-optimal market factors, Martinez will have another bite at the free-agent apple next year via a second opt-out provision in the aforementioned five-year deal. He’ll now earn $23.75MM in 2020 before having the opportunity to test free agency again next winter when he’ll have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract.
The decision has significant long-term ramifications for the team as well. Already, there have been rumors about the Red Sox shopping 2018 AL MVP Mookie Betts this winter as he heads into his final season of club control. Some of that is tied to the fact that the Betts has, to this point, insisted upon testing the free-agent market rather than explore a potential extension, but Boston’s luxury tax situation is also a clear factor. The Red Sox are currently $28MM over the luxury tax threshold, placing them firmly into the second tier of penalties. Had Martinez opted out of his deal, they’d have seen $22MM subtracted from that luxury ledger, but they’ll now likely search for alternative means of reducing their levels of penalization.
Angels Decline Option Over Kole Calhoun
The Angels announced that they have declined their club option over outfielder Kole Calhoun, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register first reported (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $1MM buyout rather than a $14MM salary for 2019.
This move seemed likely as the offseason drew near, even in spite of a nice 2019 effort from Calhoun. There are several other corner outfield options floating around in free agency and the Angels have a host of needs to address. With top prospect Jo Adell waiting in the wings, this kind of outlay wasn’t particularly sensible.
Calhoun, 32, bounced back from a rough 2018 season. In 632 plate appearances, he slashed .232/.325/.467 and launched a career-best 33 home runs. (Of course, he was far from the only MLB player to put up a new personal high in that department.)
There’ll surely be interest in Calhoun, a well-regarded defender who hits from the left side. It’s possible he’ll field multi-year offers. But odds are he will end up playing for less than $14MM in the 2019 season.
Phillies Announce Flurry Of Roster Moves
The Phillies have announced a wide slate of roster moves today, setting the team up for another fascinating offseason. In particular, the club has shorn a big chunk of its 2019 pitching staff from the roster in one fell swoop.
Philadelphia declined club options over righty Jared Hughes, righty Pat Neshek, and lefty Jason Vargas. Also heading to the open market are five players were outrighted: infielder Phil Gosselin and righties Jerad Eickhoff, Mike Morin, Blake Parker, and Edubray Ramos.
That’s a big chunk of innings going onto the open market despite ongoing control rights. To be exact, the Phils are kicking 219 2/3 of their frames from 2019 back into free agency. It’s hard to argue with any of the decisions.
Hughes was solid as a late-season gap-filler, but didn’t rate at a $3MM price tag for 2020. He’ll get a $250K buyout on the way out. Neshek takes $750K with him instead of pitching for $7MM. That’s no surprise after he was limited to 18 frames due to injury. Vargas is due a $2MM buyout instead of a $8MM salary; the Phils evidently feel they can do better in the rotation on the open market this winter.
The biggest departure is that of Eickhoff. The once-promising starter projected to earn only $1.5MM, with one more season of control thereafter, but the Phils decided to cut bait after watching him struggle to a 5.71 ERA over 58 1/3 innings. Eickhoff had a few encouraging outings upon his return from a long injury layoff, but struggled thereafter and was again sidelined with arm woes.
The other three were also eligible for arbitration. Morin, who has a $1.2MM projected arb salary, struggled to get strikeouts during his stint with the club. Parker surprisingly turned in 11.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 25 frames but also gave up a host of homers and earned runs. Perhaps he’d have been worth a lower-cost keeper price but the Phils weren’t biting at a projected $4.7MM. The 26-year-old Ramos entered the year as a key piece but struggled with injuries and showed a velocity decline when he was available. He projected to earn only $800K, but the team may not have been convinced of his ability to return to full health.
Meanwhile, a host of players were added back to the 40-man roster. Among the players activated from the 60-day injured list is starter Jake Arrieta, who has exercised his player option and will remain with the organization. On the heels of a messy, injury-marred campaign, that comes as no surprise. Additionally, outfielder Odubel Herrera was reinstated from the restricted list after the conclusion of his suspension for a violation of the league’s domestic violence policy. His future with the organization remains unclear following this procedural move.
Braves Decline Options Over Teheran, Hamilton; Issue Qualifying Offer To Josh Donaldson
The Braves announced today that they have declined options over righty Julio Teheran and center fielder Billy Hamilton. In other news, the club made a qualifying offer to third baseman Josh Donaldson.
In Teheran’s case — the most interesting one of the three — the club will pay a $1MM buyout rather than picking up the option at $12MM. It isn’t entirely surprising to see that the Braves are ready to move on from the long-time rotation stalwart, but it had been possible to imagine the team exercising the option and then trading him.
Teheran has never been the ace that some once expected him to be. But he has generally been quite effective, with a 3.67 lifetime ERA and sub-4.00 marks in each of the past two campaigns. And Teheran has been freakishly durable, scarcely missing a single outing and averaging 191 innings since his first full season in 2013.
It’s debatable just how much interest Teheran will draw on the open market. But it’s plenty possible to imagine teams considering multi-year offers. Beyond his excellent health record, Teheran is still just 28 years of age.
As for Hamilton, claimed off waivers in August, there was never any chance his mutual option would be exercised by the team at a $7.5MM price tag. He’ll take a $1MM buyout with him as he goes back onto the open market.
It was equally obvious that Donaldson would receive the $17.8MM qualifying offer at $17.8MM. The Braves paid him more than that for one season already and got everything they bargained for. There’s no question Donaldson will turn down the offer and take to free agency.
Twins To Issue Qualifying Offer To Jake Odorizzi
The Twins will issue a qualifying offer to righty Jake Odorizzi, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM reports (Twitter link). This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM.
While not unexpected, this move sets the stage for an interesting decision for Odorizzi. He’ll have ten days to weigh his options, during which time he can negotiate with the Twins. Odorizzi and his reps at Excel can also chat with other organizations that have interest, helping them to gauge the marketplace, though any deal with another organization would need to await final resolution of the QO.
The Minnesota organization would obviously be glad to see Odorizzi return for a one-year commitment, even at that hefty price point. After all, they could lose not only Odorizzi but also Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez to free agency, leaving them with a huge offseason undertaking on the starting staff. If he hits the open market instead of accepting, the Twins will stand to recoup draft compensation if Odorizzi signs elsewhere. They’d receive a choice after the second round — unless Odorizzi secures more than $50MM in guaranteed money, in which case it’d be after the first round. Meanwhile, signing teams will modify their offers (or withhold them altogether) to account for the loss of their own draft capital.
Odorizzi, who’ll turn 30 next March, quietly built himself a strong case as a qualifying offer recipient. The right-hander has long been a durable and generally useful rotation cog, but some mechanical adjustments led to increased velocity in 2019, and his focus on working at the top of the zone helped to up his strikeout levels. When all was said and done, Odorizzi had compiled 159 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with an even better 3.36 FIP. The righty averaged a career-best 10.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9, and his 0.9 HR/9 mark was particularly impressive for a fly-ball pitcher, considering the 2019 juiced ball.
The top of this year’s pitching market features bona fide aces Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, while Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner are both in the next tier of arms. There’s an argument for Odorizzi to at least approach that second tier, but at the very least, he’s among the more appealing arms in the market’s third tier.
Brewers Decline 2020 Option On Eric Thames
The Brewers announced Monday that they’ve declined their $7.5MM club option on first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames. He’ll be paid a $1MM buyout instead. While Thames doesn’t have the requisite six years of free agency to become a free agent, the three-year contract he signed upon returning to Major League Baseball from the Korea Baseball Organization stipulated that he become a free agent in the event that his 2020 option was bought out. As such, he’ll be added to the free-agent pool and is now free to sign with any club this winter.
It’s a somewhat surprising decision, as the 32-year-old Thames turned in a .247/.346/.505 batting line with 25 homers, 23 doubles and two triples in just 459 plate appearances. Thames did strike out at a 30.9 percent clip, but he also drew a walk in 11.1 percent of his plate appearances. Thames has been a pure platoon player for the Brewers of late, and the reasoning isn’t especially hard to discern; in 202 plate appearances against lefties since his return to the Majors, he’s batted .188/.287/.375. Against right-handed opponents, he’s hit .251/.354/.529 with 63 of his 72 home runs.
Thames spent the bulk of his time in 2019 at first base, though he’s no stranger to either outfield corner. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating credited him as a solid defender at first in 2019 but less so in the outfield (-4 DRS, -1.3 UZR, -6 Outs Above Average in 490 2/3 innings since returning).
The free-agent market generally hasn’t been welcoming to bat-first corner-only options like Thames in recent seasons — particularly those on the wrong side of 30. His ability to log some innings in the outfield corners will give him a leg up on some other more limited sluggers, particularly with teams able to roster a 26th player in 2020. It’s possible that Milwaukee will look to bring him back on a lower-priced one-year deal, but other speculative fits for Thames on the open market will include the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Nationals. Rebuilding clubs like the Marlins, Tigers and Royals could all conceivably take a look as well.
Blue Jays Acquire Chase Anderson
12:39pm: The Blue Jays and Brewers have formally announced the trade.
10:40am: The Blue Jays are sending minor league first baseman Chad Spanberger to Milwaukee to complete the deal, TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets.
10:23am: The Blue Jays are set to acquire right-hander Chase Anderson from the Brewers, Robert Murray reports via Twitter. Anderson is under control through the 2021 season via a pair of club options, and the decision on that first option (valued at $8.5MM) is due today. The pitching-needy Blue Jays figure to pick that option up and plug Anderson into the rotation. Toronto will also have a $9.5MM option on Anderson in 2021 (with a $500K buyout).
Anderson, who’ll turn 32 later this month, has been a staple on the Milwaukee staff for the past four seasons, averaging 30 appearances and 28 starts per season in that time. The Brewers have become increasingly aggressive in limiting their starters’ innings in recent seasons, which suppressed Anderson’s innings total in 2019 in particular. Five of Anderson’s 2019 appearances came in relief, but even in his 27 starts, he averaged just over 4 2/3 innings per outing (with a 4.29 ERA).
In all, over the past four seasons, Anderson has given the Brewers 590 innings of 3.83 ERA ball while averaging 7.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 1.45 HR/9 to go along with a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate. He doesn’t stand out in terms of spin rate on his fastball or curve, but Anderson’s 93.4 mph average heater in 2019 was a career-best. Anderson has also generally been well above-average in terms of limiting hard contact and opponents’ exit velocity, ranking in the 76th and 83rd percentiles, respectively, among pitchers in 2019.
Today’s trade surely signals that the Brewers weren’t sold on retaining Anderson at that $8.5MM rate. They could’ve bought him out and retained him via arbitration — Anderson has not yet reached six years of MLB service but will in 2020 — but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an even heftier salary in arbitration ($10.3MM) than he’d earn on this option. Anderson may not be given the green light to turn an opponent’s lineup over for a third time with too much frequency next year, but he’ll presumably have a longer leash on a start-to-start basis than he did with the Brewers.
The Blue Jays entered the offseason needing to add several pitchers to a beleaguered rotation that lacked even a modicum of clarity heading into 2020. Right-handers Trenth Thornton and Jacob Waguespack were the de facto members of the starting staff prior to today’s trade, but Thornton struggled to keep his ERA south of 5.00 while Waguespack threw just 65 1/3 Major League innings (4.13 ERA, 4.81 FIP). Toronto will also likely have veteran righty Matt Shoemaker back in 2020, but he’s a bit of an unknown coming off surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered early in the 2019 campaign. Righties T.J. Zeuch and Sean Reid-Foley also received auditions in 2019, as did southpaw Anthony Kay. That trio will be in the mix once again next season, as well.
Even with Anderson now on board, the Jays will surely be in the market for additional help on the starting staff — likely some higher-ed names than Anderson, who’ll be more of a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins stressed at his end-of-season press conference that the Blue Jays need to find “pitching we can count on,” emphasizing that merely stockpiling depth wouldn’t be good enough. “We need to have guys that can contribute in significant ways,” he said at the time.
As for the Brewers, they’ll save themselves a $500K buyout on Anderson and turn the final two seasons of his contractual into the 24-year-old Spanberger, who was selected by the Rockies in the sixth round of the 2017 draft. Toronto had previously acquired him in the trade that sent reliever Seunghwan Oh to the Rockies. Spanberger drew praise for his 70-grade raw power over at FanGraphs prior to the season, although he didn’t post especially impressive numbers in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League, where he hit .237/.308/.399 with 13 homers and 29 doubles (108 wRC+). He spent more time in right field than at first base in 2019 and could eventually give the Brewers some bat-first corner depth.
Yankees To Extend Aroldis Chapman
Reports indicate that the Yankees have reached an agreement to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in pinstripes through 2022. New York will add a third year valued at $18MM in addition to the two years and $30MM that remained on Chapman’s previous contract with the club, bringing its total commitment to the hurler to $48MM over the next three seasons, according to reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link).
Chapman had been facing a Saturday deadline on an opt-out decision regarding the remaining two seasons on the five-year contract he signed with the club prior to the 2017 season, but the addition of a third season has apparently persuaded him to forego open market opportunities. His original deal with New York represented the largest guarantee ($86MM) ever given to a free agent reliever, and this extension promises to bring Chapman’s six-year Yankees outlay to a whopping $104MM.
Our own Steve Adams predicted on Friday that a three-year deal would be the 31-year-old pitcher’s most likely free agency outcome if Chapman’s representatives at Magnus Sports had been unable to reach an extension accord with New York. That both club and agency were able to come to an agreement should be a boon to the Yankees bullpen, being that Chapman’s presence will allow fellow relievers Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green to remain in the roles they held in 2019. And that’s before accounting for the Cuban native’s personal performance.
In 2019, Chapman, though not exactly the radar gun-breaking flamethrower he once was, recorded superlative numbers by pretty much any measure. He posted 57 innings — his most since signing with New York — en route to a sparkling 2.21 ERA; his 13.4 K/9 rate and 0.47 HR/9 rate were also ready evidence of the lefthander’s late-inning dominance. Working in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, Chapman recorded 37 saves–his seventh time in the last eight seasons eclipsing the 30-save plateau.
Had Chapman chosen to forego the remaining two years on his deal, he would have in all likelihood entered free agency with a $17.8MM qualifying offer attached to his name. Last offseason saw another great closer of the current era, Craig Kimbrel, remain on the open market well into the regular season after being attached to a QO, so it’s fair to wonder whether that spectacle encouraged Chapman to remain with the bird in hand. Regardless, tonight’s development marks a continued union between arguably the game’s best closer and a team that has in recent years come tantalizingly close to postseason paydirt.
With Chapman off the board, names like Will Harris, Will Smith, Daniel Hudson, and Dellin Betances likely represent the upper end of the 2019-2020 free agent relief class. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a look at some of this winter’s most interesting free agent bullpen arms.
Stephen Strasburg Opts Out Of Nationals Contract
10:20 pm: Boras and the Nationals plan to start re-negotiating Strasburg’s deal on Sunday, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (link). Of course, that’s no guarantee that the two sides will come to an accord, but it’s certainly noteworthy that both parties appear committed to sustaining a working relationship.
9:28 pm: In a development that promises to have far-reaching implications on this offseason’s free agent market, starter Stephen Strasburg has decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract with the Nationals, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (link). As Feinsand notes in a follow-up tweet, the present-day value of the remaining money on his Nationals deal is closer to $88MM, due to the original agreement’s heavily deferred structure (link).
To say that Strasburg heads to the open market with momentum at his back would be a gross understatement. Always an excellent pitcher when healthy, the 31-year-old truly put it all together in 2019, leading his league in both innings pitched and wins, while maintaining typically pristine ERA (3.32) and strikeout (10.81 K/9) marks across 33 starts. And for a follow-up? The San Diego State product and former #1 overall pick laid waste to postseason hitters, allowing just 8 earned runs through 36.1 October innings; his two starts in the Fall Classic were dominant enough to see the righty named 2019’s World Series MVP, despite some tough competition from his offensive teammates. Strasburg will likely garner a fair deal of Cy Young support and now heads into free agency for the first time in his career with superagent Scott Boras as his sidekick.
The prevailing sense around D.C. has long been that the pitcher’s historical allegiance to the team that drafted him would lead to the two parties working out an extension. After all, it was just in 2016 that the hurler decided to extend with a seven-year, $175MM deal with Washington in advance of his impending free agency–a true rarity for a Boras client. However, today’s 12pm EST deadline for his opt-out decision came and went without word, and it appears that both parties declined to arrange a deadline extension to help facilitate negotiation around a new deal, as occurred with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last offseason.
Instead, Mike Rizzo and his Washington front office will likely find themselves negotiating for the starter’s services against the bidding of several other competing organizations in short order. All of the teams in Strasburg’s native Southern California appear as logical fits, with the Padres, Angels, and Dodgers all projecting to have both spending capacity and rotation needs this winter.