2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
Most players have about 30 remaining regular season games to add to their free agent bona fides. Postseason heroics don’t always change a free agent’s valuation, as Daniel Murphy can attest. Still, the majority of players on this list will see their seasons extend into the playoffs, providing a chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. The players below are ranked on their expected earning power in free agency. To view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes aggravated his quad in early August, but returned to close out the month with five home runs in 11 games. He’s showing more power than ever and has even started drawing walks. Cespedes, who turns 31 in October, told reporters recently he’d like to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but he has not made a decision about his opt-out clause. Barring a large extension with the Mets, it is a virtual lock Cespedes opts out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM left on his contract in search of a bigger commitment.
2. Aroldis Chapman. Aside from a laborious save last night at Wrigley, Chapman had a fine month for the Cubs. He appears in line to score a record contract for a reliever this winter.
3. Kenley Jansen. Jansen had a few rare blips in August, but he’s still right there with Chapman as one of the game’s dominant ninth inning forces. Chapman, Jansen, and Mark Melancon are poised to take the free agent relief market to new heights in a few months. Of the three, only Jansen will be subject to a qualifying offer, if that system remains in place.
4. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion had another fine month with the bat, slugging eight more home runs to bring his total to 36. His career-high of 42 bombs is within reach. Unfortunately, Encarnacion has drawn attention for a lawsuit in which a woman alleges he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases in February. Any team considering signing Encarnacion this offseason is going to have questions and concerns about this situation.
5. Wilson Ramos. Ramos had a respectable August, with his career-best home run total climbing to 20. Among full-time catchers, that mark ties him for second in all of baseball. Ramos celebrated his 29th birthday in August, and his youth opens up the possibility of a five-year deal in free agency. If the bidding results in a contract near Russell Martin‘s five-year, $82MM pact, Ramos could be the second-biggest earner among all free agents. For more on Ramos’ market, check out Jeff Todd’s Free Agent Stock Watch.
6. Ian Desmond. Desmond hit a bump in the road in August, batting just .241/.276/.276 in 123 plate appearances for the Rangers. He’s no longer the free agent WAR leader. Desmond’s overall resurgent campaign still justifies a four-year deal, with strong contributions in hitting, baserunning, and defense.
7. Justin Turner. At 4.3 WAR, Turner is the most valuable free agent currently. The 31-year-old has combined his typical above average third base defense with newfound power at the plate. Turner’s 24 home runs marks a career high, though his batting average has slipped from the lofty heights of 2014-15. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd dissected Turner’s season and market position at length in this recent Free Agent Stock Watch.
8. Mark Trumbo. Trumbo leads all of MLB with 40 home runs, after adding ten more in August. It was an all or nothing month for the 30-year-old right-handed slugger, who hit .181/.280/.500 in 107 plate appearances. Oddly, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, after hitting .272/.328/.542 off southpaws from 2013-15. His poor defensive season is less of a surprise. Unlike a player like Desmond, Trumbo can only help a team in one area: power. I still think he has a reasonable chance at a four-year deal, though about 58% of MLBTR readers don’t think he’ll get one.
9. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 35, missed a chunk of August due to a knee sprain. While his offensive rate stats are down, the bigger concern is his health and defense moving forward. In the aforementioned survey, less than 13% of MLBTR readers think Bautista will get a four-year deal this winter. I agree with that assessment.
10. Josh Reddick. Reddick held the third spot on this list a month ago. Since being traded to the Dodgers, he’s hitting just .161/.223/.172 in 94 plate appearances. One month may not torpedo his free agent value entirely, and he still has September and October to build it back up. MLBTR’s writing team has debated whether Reddick can still land a four-year deal, with Jeff Todd’s Nick Markakis comp suggesting it’s possible. The ever-pessimistic MLBTR readership gives only a 26% chance of a four-year deal for Reddick. If they’re correct, he won’t hold a spot in the top ten.
An honorable mention goes to Mets second baseman Neil Walker, who held the tenth spot on this list until news broke that he’s likely to undergo season-ending back surgery. I would not rule out a four-year deal for Walker, who set a career-high of 3.8 WAR in just 113 games. Others who are not too far from cracking the top ten: Dexter Fowler, Michael Saunders, and Mark Melancon. The market will also feature power bats Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Carlos Beltran, great speed and baserunning in Rajai Davis, and high contact hitter Martin Prado.
You may have noticed the complete lack of starting pitchers mentioned. The free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bleak this winter, with Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, and Rich Hill as the top-ranked arms.
Mets Acquire Fernando Salas
The Mets announced that they have acquired right-handed reliever Fernando Salas from the Angels in exchange for minor league right-hander Erik Manoah. Justin Ruggiano has been moved to the 60-day disabled list to make room for Salas on the 40-man roster.
Salas, 31, has pitched to a 4.47 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 41.6 percent ground-ball rate in 56 1/3 innings of relief for the Angels this season. A free agent at season’s end, he represents a pure rental for the Mets, but a fairly affordable one, as he’s earning $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Salas has $419K of that sum remaining on his salary through season’s end. While his numbers certainly aren’t eye-catching, it’s worth noting that Salas has largely righted the ship after a dreadful month of June and has pitched quite well since early July. While the endpoint here is highly arbitrary in nature, Salas has a 2.60 ERA with an 18-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in his past 17 1/3 innings out of manager Mike Scisoscia’s bullpen.
With the Mets, Salas figures to work primarily in the seventh inning, as the eighth inning is typically the property of resurgent setup man Addison Reed, while the Mets boast one of baseball’s best closers in the form of right-hander Jeurys Familia. By acquiring Salas tonight, the Mets have ensured that he can be a part of the club’s roster in the event that they make it to the postseason. The deadline for newly acquired players to receive postseason eligibility is midnight EST.
Manoah, 20, was the Mets’ 13th-round pick in the 2014 draft. The Miami-area prep product hasn’t performed particularly well in his pro career to date, pitching to an ERA north of 5.00 in both 2015 and 2016. However, he has shown a penchant for missing bats, racking up 63 strikeouts in 62 innings out of the rotation for the Mets’ short-season Class-A affiliate this year, and he also keeps the ball on the ground quite well, as evidenced by a 50 percent ground-ball rate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Sox Promote Yoan Moncada
The Red Sox announced on Wednesday evening that they will promote top prospect Yoan Moncada to the Major Leagues on Friday.
The 21-year-old Moncada is widely regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball, if not the top prospect. The switch-hitter was one of the most highly sought after international free agents in history when he left Cuba last year, prompting the Red Sox to agree to a $31.5MM bonus — far and away the largest ever for a player that is characterized by an amateur under Major League Baseball’s international prospect rulings. That bonus came with a 100 percent luxury tax, meaning that the Red Sox effectively spent $63MM simply to get Moncada into their farm system. That figure doesn’t account for any of the future salaries that Moncada will begin to earn as he works his way toward arbitration, but the early returns look to have been worth it for Boston.
In 486 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this season, Moncada is batting a scintillating .298/.411/.518 with 15 home runs, 31 doubles, six triples and 45 stolen bases (in 57 attempts). While the majority of his time in the minors has been spent as a second baseman, he recently began seeing some time at the hot corner in Double-A Portland, which is where he figures to fit into the Red Sox’ short- and long-term plans, thanks to the presence of franchise cornerstone Dustin Pedroia at second base.
Moncada ranked No. 1 on the midseason top prospect lists of both Baseball America and MLB.com, while Baseball Prospectus ranked him second and ESPN’s Keith Law rated him fifth (though it’s worth noting that three of the players ahead of Moncada on Law’s Top 50 are now in the Majors).
Orioles Acquire Michael Bourn
The Orioles announced tonight that they have acquired center fielder Michael Bourn from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league outfielder Jason Heinrich. To make room for Bourn on the 40-man roster, Baltimore has transferred outfielder Joey Rickard to the 60-day disabled list.
The 33-year-old Bourn becomes the second piece of outfield depth added by Baltimore today, as the O’s also picked up center fielder Drew Stubbs when they claimed him off release waivers from the Rangers. Bourn hasn’t been overly productive on the season overall in Arizona, but he’s had some productive stretches and has been swinging a hot bat as of late. The speedster is hitting .261/.307/.362 in 389 plate appearances with Arizona this season, but his .313/.345/.434 slash and five stolen bases over his past 20 games are more encouraging than his cumulative season stats.
With rosters set to expand tomorrow, Bourn will give the O’s a late-inning option to bring some speed off the bench and perhaps to upgrade the outfield defense over Mark Trumbo or Hyun Soo Kim, neither of whom grades out anywhere close to average with the glove. At 33 years of age and with a recent history of hamstring issues, Bourn isn’t the premium defender and elite baserunner that he once was, but he’s nonetheless graded out as roughly average in center field, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and four runs above average in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved. As such, he should be a sizable upgrade in terms of run prevention if and when manager Buck Showalter inserts him into the mix late in games with slim leads.
Heinrich, 20, was the Orioles’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft. The Florida high school product and Alaska native has spent the season with Baltimore’s Low-A affiliate, batting .231/.301/.347 in 163 plate appearances and is a .251/.331/.365 hitter in a total of 341 plate appearances since being drafted last year. Heading into last year’s draft, Baseball America rated Heinrich as the No. 188 prospect available, writing that the right-handed hitter stood out for his plus raw power to the pull side and impressive bat speed. He profiles as either a right fielder or a first baseman in the long term, per BA.
FOX’s Ken Rosenthal first reported earlier this afternoon that the Orioles were trying to acquire Bourn, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale called the deal close and FanRag’s Jon Heyman said the two sides had a principle agreement with only final details to be worked out.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Indians Acquire Coco Crisp
2:43pm: In total, the Indians will pay around $500K of the tab for Crisp, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.
2:15pm: Cleveland will receive $1,673,497 in cash from Oakland in the deal, per Tom Withers of the Associated Press (via Twitter). By my count, Crisp has just under $2MM remaining in salary the rest of the way, so clearly the bulk will be retained by the A’s. It isn’t clear who is on the hook for a $750K buyout of next year’s $13MM option.
10:33am: The Indians and Athletics have announced a deal that sends veteran outfielder Coco Crisp to Cleveland in exchange for lefty Colt Hynes. MLBTR’s Steve Adams first reported that a deal was nearing and that Crisp had waived his no-trade protection (Twitter links), and John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group reported that the swap was finalized.
Crisp is a 36-year-old, switch-hitting outfielder who is set to hit the open market after the season — assuming that he doesn’t reach the 550 plate appearances or 130 games played that he’d need for his $13MM option to vest. Odds are, that won’t occur at this stage, particularly since Crisp is likely ticketed for part-time duty in his new home.
Though he understandably isn’t playing at his career-best levels, Crisp has managed to put up just-below-average overall offensive production with a .234/.299/.399 slash and 11 home runs over 434 plate appearances. Defensive metrics no longer view him as a plausible option in center, but Defensive Runs Saved credited him with average glovework in left this season.
As has long been the case, and as a glance at Cleveland’s current depth chart shows, the organization has made do thus far with a somewhat surprising mix of players in the outfield. Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, Abraham Almonte, Rajai Davis, Brandon Guyer, and Michael Martinez are all on hand as options, though one wonders whether the switch-hitting Martinez would lose his roster spot if Crisp is brought in.
Covering for the loss of Michael Brantley hasn’t been easy, but that group has rather remarkably combined to post the third-highest fWAR tally of any outfield in the game. Crisp will deepen the mix down the stretch and potentially provide another bat in the postseason.
For the A’s, facilitating a playoff run for a veteran while freeing up playing time for younger players appear to have been the primary considerations. The 31-year-old Hynes has been a popular waiver wire target at times, but still has only limited time in the majors. He is carrying 9.9 K/9 against just 1.7 BB/9 this year over 47 1/3 minor league frames, but he didn’t impress enough to receive a call-up from either the Blue Jays or the Indians.
The move represents something of a homecoming for Crisp, who began his major league career in Cleveland way back in 2002. From there, he moved on to the Red Sox, where he played under current Indians skipper Terry Francona, and stopped with the Royals before moving on to Oakland, where he has been since 2010. He is currently playing out the tail end of an extension he signed with the A’s in the spring of 2014.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yasiel Puig Claimed On Revocable Waivers; Likelihood Of Deal Unknown
9:40pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter) that the White Sox attempted to claim Puig, but he did not make it to them on waivers. That would indicate that either a National League team or one of the few American League teams with a worse record than the ChiSox won the claim. Factoring in previous reports that the Marlins and Braves didn’t make the claim, the team that claimed Puig is one of the Angels, Athletics, Rays, Twins, Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Pirates, Mets, Rockies, Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Padres or D-backs. While that’s clearly an enormous slate of teams, Nightengale’s report does at least eliminate roughly a third of the teams in baseball as a possibility.
4:47pm: Neither the Braves nor the Marlins made the claim, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter) and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).
4:05pm: Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig has been claimed on revocable waivers, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports on Twitter. It is not yet clear what organization placed the winning waiver claim — National League clubs would have priority, by inverse order of record — or whether there is any serious possibility of a transaction being worked out.
Los Angeles can, of course, simply allow the claiming team to assume Puig’s contract. Despite his struggles of late, however, it’s hard to imagine that taking place — particularly since the remaining amounts he is guaranteed ($6.5MM in 2017 and $7.5MM in 2018) represent a relative drop in the bucket for the Dodgers.
If anything, L.A. has proven more willing to spend top dollar on risky talent than have other organizations. Though the team’s up-and-down ride with Puig may have impacted its stance on the enigmatic Cuban star, he has done things at the major league level that most players can only dream of.
Puig was one of the best players in baseball in 2013 and 2014, and entered his age-24 campaign like one of the most valuable assets in the game. But he wasn’t quite up to his usual standard in 2015 and fell off even further this year. Since the start of 2016, he has accumulated 303 plate appearances of .260/.320/.386 hitting, thus earning a demotion to Triple-A.
Still, the talented 25-year-old retains plenty of appeal and looks like an intriguing upside play, especially since he is raking and drawing good marks for his clubhouse presence at the highest level of the minors. That he was claimed proves that other organizations aren’t afraid to roll the dice, but the Dodgers won’t likely give those rights away freely. We’ve heard suggestions that the team may yet call him back in September, or otherwise delay trade talks until the offseason, and there’s no indication as yet that a late-breaking August trade is particularly likely.
Rays Release Desmond Jennings
AUG. 30: Jennings has now cleared release waivers and is officially a free agent, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
AUG. 27: Tampa Bay has officially released Jennings, according to Bill Chastain of MLB.com.
AUG. 26: The Rays will release veteran outfielder Desmond Jennings tomorrow, the club has announced. He had been on the 15-day DL with a knee injury.
This isn’t the first time that Jennings has succumbed to leg problems. The 29-year-old was shelved earlier this year with a hamstring strain and underwent surgery last year on his left knee.
Injuries have coincided with a rather notable decline in performance of late, and Jennings no longer profiles as the quality everyday player he once was. Between 2011 and 2014, he contributed nearly 2,000 plate appearances of .249/.327/.402 hitting while swatting 47 home runs and stealing 86 bases. In the two seasons since, Jennings owns a .222/.295/.347 batting line with eight long balls and seven swiped bags in only 333 turns at the plate.
Jennings was earning $3.3MM in his second season of arbitration eligibility. Even if he catches on with another organization and makes it back to the majors this year, Tampa Bay will remain on the hook for the remainder of that less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary. Jennings profiled as a likely non-tender candidate at year end, but will instead hit the open market a bit early.
While there’s obviously plenty of reason for pessimism with regards to Jennings’s future in the game, there are still some positives. Defensive Runs Saved rates him as a quality defender, though that assessment wasn’t shared by UZR. And Jennings is still relatively youthful, as he won’t turn 30 until October. Clubs looking for a bounceback candidate or fourth outfielder will surely consider him this winter, at least assuming he is able to show that he’s back to full health.
Gerrit Cole Placed On DL Due To Elbow Inflammation
The Pirates announced that ace Gerrit Cole has been placed on the disabled list, retroactive to Aug. 25, with “posterior inflammation of the right elbow.” Left-hander Steven Brault is up from Triple-A Indianapolis and will assume Cole’s spot in the rotation against the Cubs tonight.
[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
This will be the second DL stint of the season for Cole, who missed just over a month earlier this summer when he was diagnosed with a strained right triceps. The fourth-place finisher in last year’s National League Cy Young voting, Cole hasn’t looked like himself since being activated from that initial trip to the disabled list, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and yielding 57 hits in 45 2/3 innings. Overall, he’s posted a 3.55 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 46.1 percent ground-ball rate in 114 innings. All of those rates have gone the wrong direction from last season’s masterful numbers, though there’s been very little loss of velocity for Cole.
Brault, 24, will join the Bucs for the second time this season. Originally acquired from the Orioles in the 2015 Travis Snider trade, Brault allowed four earned runs in 10 innings across a pair of starts earlier this season and has enjoyed a solid season at the Triple-A level as well. In 75 1/3 minor league innings this year, Brault has recorded a 3.70 ERA with a career-best 10.3 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 to go along with a 41.5 percent ground-ball rate.
The loss of Cole is a tough break for a Pirates team that is presently just a half-game back from the Cardinals in the race for the second National League Wild Card spot. However, the struggles of Pittsburgh’s ace over the past several weeks have arguably been more detrimental, and if a short-term layoff allows him to right the ship prior to a theoretical postseason run, the club could come out ahead in the long haul.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s 2017 Option Likely To Vest
Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma quietly surpassed 162 innings last week in a start against the Yankees, meaning he has now crossed the minimum innings threshold for his 2017 club option to vest at $14MM. However, MLBTR has learned that Iwakuma’s contract also stipulates that he must finish the season without incurring a specific injury, so while he’s now likely to see his option vest, the 2017 salary is not quite guaranteed just yet.
The specific nature of the injury that Iwakuma must avoid remains unknown, though concerns about his health submarined what would’ve been a three-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers this past offseason. (He instead re-signed in Seattle on a one-year, $12MM deal with a pair of options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons.) The 35-year-old has avoided the disabled list entirely this season, however, so he’s certainly in the clear at the moment. In fact, not only has Iwakuma avoided the disabled list, he’s been far and away the healthiest member of the Seattle rotation. No other Mariners starter is within 40 innings of Iwakuma’s 163 frames, as each of Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Nate Karns has spent time on the disabled list. In his 163 innings, Iwakuma has pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA, though a number of his secondary statistics have trended in the wrong direction, including his strikeout rate (6.5 K/9), walk rate (2.0 BB/9), ground-ball rate (39.8 percent) and average fastball velocity (87.8 mph).
Iwakuma’s innings count for the remainder of the season is worth keeping an eye on as well, as his volume of innings in 2016 could impact his contract status for 2018. Assuming his 2017 option ends up vesting, Iwakuma’s 2018 option will vest at $15MM if he is able to throw a combined 324 innings between 2016-17. As it stands, he needs 161 innings next year to lock in that $15MM payday in 2018, though every inning he tosses in the final stages of the 2016 season will bring him a small step closer to that goal.
Iwakuma’s contract also contains plenty of incentives for the 2016 season, and he’s already begun reaching them. He took home $500K for reaching the 150-inning mark and is owed an additional $500K for every 10th inning he pitches after that mark, up to 190 innings. In other words, he’s already earned $1MM worth of incentives and could push that up to a total of $2.5MM if he throws another 27 innings, which looks quite likely. Those incentives will not be a part of his contract in 2017-18 if those options vest (though they would be in the event that his options fail to vest, and the club exercises the option anyway).
Dodgers Place Yasiel Puig On Revocable Waivers
The Dodgers have placed outfielder Yasiel Puig on revocable trade waivers, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). While Rosenthal expects someone to claim Puig, he points out (on Twitter) that a trade is likelier to occur in the offseason. By waiting until then to deal Puig, the Dodgers would be able to negotiate with the rest of the league, whereas their market would be limited to only the claiming team this season.
After bursting on the scene in 2013 and providing superstar-caliber production through the 2014 campaign, Puig has regressed significantly over the past two seasons. This year has been especially difficult for Puig, whom the Dodgers optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on Aug. 2. Prior to his demotion, Puig batted a disappointing .260/.320/.386 while posting a league-worst 25.3 percent infield fly rate in 303 plate appearances. He has since torn through Pacific Coast League pitching, having slashed .375/.420/.641 in 69 PAs, and his major league replacement – trade deadline acquisition Josh Reddick – has hit a terrible .141/.202/.154 this month. Nevertheless, there’s no indication that the Dodgers are going to recall Puig this year.
There have long been concerns about Puig’s clubhouse presence and maturity, though FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported Thursday that his behavior since going to Oklahoma City has drawn positive reviews.
“At some point, the talent, the maturity is going to take hold,” a Dodgers official told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last week. “Someone will benefit from it. We hope it’s us, but it’s hard to envision it right now.”
Puig is only 25, so he could indeed regain form and benefit the Dodgers or another club down the line. Given his upside and reasonable contract, a deal seems likely by the offseason if the Dodgers decide they want no part of Puig at the major league level anymore. Puig is controllable for the next three seasons, and he’s set to earn at least $14MM through 2017. He also has the right to opt into arbitration, though his poor 2016 showing could prevent him from taking that route.