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Cardinals, Mike Leake Nearing Agreement

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TUESDAY, 9:23am: It’s possible that a deal could be reached by the end of today, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets.  The deal with the Cardinals is expected to be in the five-year, $75MM range and could include an option, a source tells Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (on Twitter).

The Cardinals gave Leake a strong offer last week and have been waiting for a resolution, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets.  Multiple sources also tell him that a deal is getting close.

8:50am: The Cardinals and Leake are close to agreement on a deal, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

MONDAY, 10:45pm: Leake is aiming for a five-year deal, per Cotillo (Twitter link).

10:10pm: There’s a “growing belief” that free agent Mike Leake will be signing somewhere very soon, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The Cardinals, he adds, appear to be a strong contender for his services.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams profiled Leake recently, explaining that his market appeal lies in a combination of age, health, the lack of a qualifying offer, and solid production.  Both Adams and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes have predicted five-year, $80MM contract for Leake, placing him among the 15 or so free agents with the greatest expected earning power.

Recently, the Dodgers were mentioned as a possibility for Leake after their agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma was 86’d.  It’s not clear if the Astros have had substantive talks with Leake’s reps, but they do appear to be a fit for a veteran starter like Leake.  Leake reportedly was ready to give a hometown discount to the D’Backs, but Tony La Russa recently called that match “probably unlikely” to happen.  The Cardinals have been a logical landing spot for Leake all winter long, but some speculated that his asking price could be too rich for their blood.

In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Leake posted a 3.70 ERA.  That marks three straight seasons with a sub-3.75 ERA and at least 190 innings.  All but two months of those three years came while pitching his home games at an extremely hitter-friendly home venue: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park.  Leake was able to thrive in large part due to his excellent control (2.3 BB/9 for his career) and his strong ground-ball rate.  Leake’s 50.2 percent career mark in that regard is impressive, and it’s ticked upwards over the past two seasons, now siting closer to 53 percent.

Though he has just one season of 200-plus innings, Leake has been virtually injury free throughout his career.  He landed on the DL late in the 2010 season with right shoulder fatigue but avoided the DL for the next five years, until a hamstring injury sidelined him for about two weeks in August.  He dealt with some forearm tightness at season’s end, but it wasn’t serious and didn’t lead to major concern.

However, in an age where velocity and strikeouts are being emphasized more than ever, Leake doesn’t bring either to the table. His career-best K/9 rate is 2014’s 6.9, and he averaged just 5.6 K/9 in 2015. Leake has added some life to his fastball each year, but this season’s 90.9 mph average still rated below the 91.7 mph league average for starting pitchers.

Leake has owned right-handed hitters over the past two seasons, but he’s had less success against lefties, and that’s been a trend throughout his career. He’s yielded a .274/.324/.444 batting line to lefties throughout his big league tenure. Some of that should be taken with a grain of salt, as those numbers aren’t park-adjusted, but that’s still the rough equivalent of Evan Longoria’s 2015 batting line — hardly an ideal result.

Rockies Extend Adam Ottavino

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DEC. 21: The Rockies have officially announced the deal (Twitter link).

DEC. 19, 1:55pm: The deal was actually completed earlier this week, Nick Groke of the Denver Post tweets.

12:44pm: The Rockies have agreed to terms with reliever Adam Ottavino to a three-year, $10.4MM extension, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). The deal includes yearly salaries of $1.3MM, $2.1MM and $7MM and contains no options. Ottavino is a client of All Bases Covered.

USATSI_7335176_154513410_lowresThe 30-year-old Ottavino had Tommy John surgery in May and missed most of the 2015 season. We was projected to make just $1.6MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he would have been eligible for free agency following 2017. The extension, then, provides him with a considerable guaranteed payday in exchange for delaying his free agency eligibility by a year.

Before his injury, Ottavino was a valuable cog in the Rockies’ bullpen, most recently posting a 3.60 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 65 innings in a fine 2014 campaign. He was off to an even better start in 2015 before his injury, striking out 13 batters in 10 1/3 innings, posting an excellent 63.2% ground ball rate in a small sample, and increasing his average fastball velocity to over 95 MPH.

Needless to say, it might be awhile longer before he’s able to contribute at a top level again, which is perhaps one reason why the Rockies felt an extension made sense from their perspective — as it stood, Ottavino’s recovery period would have consumed a meaningful chunk of the remainder of the Rockies’ team control over him. Again via Heyman (on Twitter), Ottavino says he’s recovering well and will return at some point near the middle of the summer. Assuming he’s eventually able to return to something resembling his prior form, though, his $10.4MM deal doesn’t seem exorbitant given the rising costs of good setup men on the free agent market.

It’s possible that the terms of Ottavino’s extension were partially inspired by the White Sox’ recent deal with Nate Jones, which is similar in many respects. It’s the differences between the two hard-throwing righties’ deals, however, that are most striking. Like Ottavino, Jones had a recent Tommy John surgery (although Jones actually returned to action last season and pitched well, while Ottavino’s recovery is ongoing) and was in his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility.

Jones, however, was projected to make less next season, which perhaps explains why Ottavino got a more significant guarantee ($10.4MM vs. $8MM) over three years. Jones’ contract also contains two team options, plus the possibility of a third if he continues to have UCL trouble; Ottavino’s deal does not include any such options. There are doubtless many differences between the two pitchers’ situations (perhaps including differences in medical reports to which we aren’t privy). But probably the most crucial one is that Jones’ injury troubles occurred before he entered his arbitration seasons, while Ottavino’s occurred after he entered his. The divergence between the two contracts, then, illustrates what a difference timing can make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians To Sign Mike Napoli

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SATURDAY, 6:17pm: Napoli has passed his physical, according to Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer.  His deal should be officially announced sometime this week.

WEDNESDAY, 12:35pm: The Indians and first baseman Mike Napoli are in agreement on a one-year contract, pending a physical, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that Napoli will earn $7MM in 2016 and has an additional $3MM worth of incentives built into his contract.

The 34-year-old Napoli will serve as Cleveland’s everyday first baseman in 2016, tweets Rosenthal, indicating that Carlos Santana will shift to the DH slot (though I’d imagine Santana will still see some action at first). That should provide the Indians with a defensive upgrade at first base, though it remains to be seen if Napoli can remain productive in an everyday role having developed such a notable platoon split late in his career.

Napoli batted .224/.324/.410 overall between the Red Sox and Rangers last season, improving greatly upon being traded to Texas (where he was deployed primarily against lefties). Napoli’s 12 percent walk rate and .187 isolated power mark made him a decent overall offensive contributor, but he batted just .191/.283/.320 in 290 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. That’s a stark contrast to his brilliant .278/.391/.563 line against lefties, and the Indians will likely be hoping for more balance in 2016 if he’s to remain in an everyday role. Napoli did show good patience against righties (10.3 percent walk rate) and actually struck out less often versus them than he did versus lefties. A .239 BABIP when facing same-handed pitching dragged down his overall production, so the Indians will hope for a correction in that regard and better overall output from the still-powerful Napoli.

Nationals “Moving On” From Brandon Phillips

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DEC. 19, 2:31pm: Phillips wanted an extension as a condition of his approval of the trade, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets. As Heyman notes, it’s not surprising the Nationals balked — Phillips is already owed $27MM over the next two seasons, already a significant amount given his age and his somewhat uneven recent offensive performances. Phillips is arguably close to being worth the money he’s due, but asking to be extended even further than his age-35 season was asking a lot.

12:35pm: The Nationals are “moving on” from Phillips and will pursue other options, perhaps Howie Kendrick or a trade, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). Daniel Murphy is perhaps another possibility, although a lower-priority one. In any case, while Rosenthal notes the possibility that talks between the Nationals and Reds could resurface at some point, a trade between the two clubs does not seem likely right now.

DEC. 18, 4:11pm: The Reds are expected to give Phillips some form of incentives to waive his no-trade rights, but there’s been no progress made on those talks to this point, according to James Wagner of the Washington Post (links to Twitter).

1:43pm: Sources tell MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that it’s very likely at this point that Phillips will waive his no-trade protection and allow a deal to be finalized.

9:59am: The Nationals are waiting to hear whether the Reds will be able to work out an arrangement with Phillips to get him to waive his no-trade clause, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. There are still “lots of hurdles” remaining, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets.

DEC. 17: The Nationals and Reds “apparently” have an agreement on a trade that would send second baseman Brandon Phillips from Cincinnati to D.C., according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). However, Phillips has yet to waive the full no-trade protection that comes with his 10-and-5 rights (that is, 10 years of Major League service, the past five of which have come with one team). Talks with Phillips himself are in progress, per Rosenthal, who notes that Phillips accepted deferrals in his contract with the Reds under the assumption that he would remain in Cincinnati for the duration of the deal. Some kind of financial compensation might be necessary in order to get Phillips to OK the deal, Rosenthal adds.

Phillips, 34, would give the Nationals the second base upgrade they’ve reportedly been seeking. His addition would allow the Nats to open the season with Danny Espinosa at shortstop, thereby giving top prospect Trea Turner some additional minor league development time. While acquiring Phillips wouldn’t add the balance Washington has been pursuing — he’d be yet another right-handed mix added to a group that includes Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael A. Taylor — he would provide a steady defensive presence that enjoyed an offensive rebound in many ways in 2015.

The 2014 season was perhaps Phillips’ worst since establishing himself as a regular in the Major Leagues, as he batted just .266/.306/.372. His eight homers that season were the fewest he’d ever posted in a full big league campaign. The 2015 season looked more like the Phillips to which we’ve become accustomed over the life of his Cincinnati tenure, however, as his bat bounced back with a .294/.328/.395 batting line, 12 homers and 23 steals — a significant improvement from the uncharacteristic two stolen bases he recorded in 2014. His 10.9 percent strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career. Perennially regarded as a strong defender — Phillips does have four Gold Glove Awards — he recorded positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating for the ninth consecutive season in 2015.

On the negative side of things, Phillips will turn 35 next June and has indeed seen those defensive ratings begin to deteriorate, to some extent. Never known as a patient hitter, Phillips’ 4.3 percent walk rate in 2015 was the worst of his career, and if his batting average dips back toward its career mark of .273 this season, Phillips could struggle to muster a .300 OBP. And, while his contract certainly isn’t outlandish — he’s owed a reasonable enough $13MM in 2016 and $14MM in 2017 — he also wouldn’t come cheaply to a Nationals club that has just under $100MM committed to 10 players for the 2016 season, plus a projected $31.2MM owed to another six.

That figure, of course, is before considering any type of financial compensation that may need to go his way. For example, the Nats agreed to exercise Jonathan Papelbon’s club option three months in advance in order to get the closer to waive his own no-trade rights. While Phillips doesn’t have an option in his contract that can be exercised in similar fashion, the Nats could restructure his contract in some fashion in order to more amply compensate him over the two seasons he’d spend with the team in the event of a trade.

Mets Re-Sign Bartolo Colon

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DEC. 18: The Mets have announced the one-year deal (Twitter link).

DEC. 16: The Mets and Bartolo Colon have reached agreement on a one-year, $7.25MM deal, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).  Sources tell Rosenthal (link) that Colon had better offers from other teams, but he wanted to remain with the Mets.  Colon’s affinity for the Mets’ fans, his teammates, and the organization led him to re-up in Queens.

All in all, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the 42-year-old can continue functioning as a useful MLB pitcher. Colon signed a two-year, $20MM deal to join the Mets after putting up two stellar seasons with the A’s. He hasn’t quite matched the results he had in Oakland, but has contributed a remarkable 397 innings of 4.13 ERA pitching with 6.5 K/9 and a sterling 1.2 BB/9.

Now, it remains to be seen how Colon will factor into the Mets’ plans for the 2016 season.  Colon probably wouldn’t hold down a rotation spot all season in Queens barring an injury to one of the Mets’ excellent young starters, he could be a valuable stopgap early in the year as Zack Wheeler progresses in his Tommy John rehab.

New York figures to roll out a rotation fronted by Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard and also likely including highly-rated prospect Steven Matz. Still, will Jonathon Niese out of the picture and Wheeler still working his way back, Colon will help to ease uncertainty in the Mets’ rotation. Beyond Colon, the Mets could also turn to players like Rafael Montero and Logan Verrett if they need additional support in the starting five.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Kazmir, Dee Gordon, Clippard, Holliday, Padres, Astros

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There are a host of interesting notes in the latest column from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here are some of the highlights:

  • While the Royals are still interested in free agent starters Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir, as has previously been reported, the club may be most intrigued by Wei-Yin Chen, per Heyman. Kansas City would have to go well beyond its usual spending levels to add the southpaw, but Heyman writes that the club has newfound budget “flexibility” in the midst of its renaissance. Chen, though, is represented by Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have a strong relationship. (Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Rios and Franklin Morales are among the current or recent Royals to be Boras clients.)
  • Kazmir already has multiple three-year offers with guarantees in the range of $12MM to $13MM annually, per the report, with teams like the Athletics, Orioles, and Dodgers said to be involved. It seems like the first legitimate four-year offer could land Kazmir, Heyman adds. Of course, it’s unclear if the A’s will still be in the hunt if and when their reported one-year deal with righty Henderson Alvarez is finalized.
  • Meanwhile, the Royals are still pursuing Alex Gordon, but Heyman reports that the team’s initial four-year offer was not met with a very promising response from Gordon’s camp. It’s been surprisingly quiet on the Gordon front for much of the offseason, although with Jason Heyward off the board, it’s easy to imagine the market for him and fellow corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton picking up quickly.
  • The Royals are holding extension discussions with backstop Salvador Perez, says Heyman, and there’s interest from team and player in reaching “something equitable.” But K.C. has all the leverage, of course, given its already lengthy and cheap control rights over the sturdy young catcher. Heyman adds that Perez’s representatives have raised the extensions of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun in talks, with the Royals not favorably disposed to those concepts. (An observation: those deals certainly don’t seem all that relevant from where I sit. Perez is an excellent player, but hasn’t reached the heights of those stars, and his current contract is far cheaper than the ones Longoria and Braun turned into new deals. Also, as a heavily-worked, large-framed catcher, there are questions about how wise it would be to make a long-term investment in Perez.)
  • The Marlins have continued their extension talks with Dee Gordon, and Heyman says that Miami has put a five-year deal on the table. But Gordon and his reps are looking for seven seasons in an extension. The talks are moving slowly, but still moving, per Heyman.
  • While the Mets do have legitimate interest in Tyler Clippard, they only want him with a one-year guarantee, per Heyman. Clippard is looking for a two-year deal he adds. It certainly seems that the veteran’s market is lagging the rest of the top-end set-up men who hit free agency this year. That could be due to a combination of his heavy recent workload and sub-par peripherals last year, but Clippard should still find a significant contract given his lengthy track record and the high dollars we’ve seen given to inferior arms.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been working out at first base, with the veteran looking to extend his career by adding defensive versatility. While that’s been done at Holliday’s initiative, Heyman wonders whether the hypothetical possibility of a move could keep St. Louis involved in the hunt for Gordon.
  • The Padres seem unlikely to put together a big offer for Ian Desmond. That would certainly be bad news for the free agent, whose market has yet to develop, as San Diego seems like one of the best fits. The Pads are not getting a lot of interest in James Shields at present and have put a high price on Tyson Ross, per the report. Meanwhile, the club is considering a move for veteran reliever Fernando Rodney.
  • The Astros aren’t done with their bullpen and remain in the market for relievers as well as a corner bat, Heyman writes. Houston non-tendered Chris Carter, and A.J. Reed probably won’t be ready to begin the season, so there does indeed appear to be room for someone capable of taking some at-bats at first base (although Jon Singleton could be given another look there as well).
  • We’ve heard chatter that the Orioles and Rockies have had some talks regarding outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and Heyman says that Colorado asked for young righty Kevin Gausman in a deal. That was, unsurprisingly, a non-starter for Baltimore. The O’s, meanwhile, tried to get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers last offseason, and Heyman wonders whether another such effort could take place this year as the club continues to hunt for another left-handed-hitting outfielder (per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).
  • The Indians had talks with free agent Austin Jackson before signing Rajai Davis, per Heyman. He adds that there are legitimate concerns that Michael Brantley will be out into June “or perhaps even later” after some undisclosed new shoulder “issue” arose this winter.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Pirates Sign Ryan Vogelsong

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4:39pm: Vogelsong receives a $2MM guarantee and can earn up to $3MM worth of incentives, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry (Twitter link).

3:00pm: The Pirates have announced a one-year deal with free agent righty Ryan Vogelsong. Contract terms have not yet been reported, though a source tells MLBTR that it’s an incentive-laden deal that can max out at $5MM.

Vogelsong, 38, had seemed to wrap up his MLB career after a stint with the Bucs in the early and mid-2000s. But he returned with new vigor after a stint in Japan, and has played with the Giants for the past five seasons.

Last year was not the best season for the veteran. He logged a rough 4.67 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9. And ERA estimators saw that earned run mark as a more-or-less accurate reflection of his actual contribution on the hill.

But there are still some positives. Vogelsong threw 135 innings over 22 starts and 11 relief appearances, and has a good track record of reliability. His velocity actually trended up slightly, with an average fastball of 91 mph.

For a Pirates organization that entered the offseason looking for rotation options with limited resources, it’s easy to see the appeal in the steady veteran. Pittsburgh recently dealt away Charlie Morton after acquiring Jon Niese, so the need is still there, and further staff additions still seem likely.

Details On Jonathan Papelbon’s Current No-Trade List

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DECEMBER 18: That list was apparently the one in effect for 2015, as Crasnick now provides a list that, he says, will be in effect for the year to come. It is the same as the prior iteration except for four changes.

On this new list, the Braves, Reds, Royals, and Mariners have moved into the group of teams to which Papelbon can reject a trade. Meanwhile, the Giants, Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees are now among the clubs to which Papelbon may freely be dealt, without his authorization.

DECEMBER 15: Nationals reliever Jonathan Papelbon has the right to name 17 clubs to which he cannot be traded without his consent, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on this year’s list.

Papelbon can block deals to the following clubs: the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Yankees. The league’s remaining teams can acquire the controversial veteran without his approval.

No-trade lists tend to reflect both personal preferences and strategic considerations. It’s hard to know the precise motivations here, but it’s worth remembering that Papelbon has previously made good use of his no-trade rights in exerting leverage. In approving the trade that sent him to D.C. last year, Papelbon received assurances he’d be used as the closer and picked up a guarantee of his 2016 option (though that would have vested anyway and he took a discount to facilitate the move).

While an exceedingly public spat with star Bryce Harper has led to wide speculation that Papelbon will be dealt, Nats GM Mike Rizzo has maintained that the team won’t simply cut him loose for whatever it can get. Papelbon is neither cheap ($11MM) nor young (35), but he’s continued to produce quality results and represents a fair value from a pure baseball perspective.

Athletics Nearing Deal With Henderson Alvarez

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2:35pm: Alvarez can earn up to $5.85MM if all available incentives are achieved, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. That includes a $4.25MM guarantee and $1.6MM in possible incentive pay.

2:23pm: The prospective deal is for one year, with $4MM in guaranteed money and “big incentives,” tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.

2:18pm: The Athletics are nearing agreement on a contract with free agent righty Henderson Alvarez, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. Alvarez, 25, was non-tendered recently by the Marlins, who set him loose rather than committing to pay a projected $4MM through arbitration.

The major question with Alvarez, of course, is the health of his shoulder. He underwent surgery in late July and had apparently not progressed to the point that Miami felt confident in a tender. Alvarez is said to be likely to miss the first month of the regular season in the best case scenario.

Of course, there’s some real upside to be captured for the A’s if things work out. Alvarez posted a 2.98 ERA in the 289 2/3 innings he threw over the 2013-14 seasons. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher, but has managed to generate those excellent results with strong control and groundball production.

Then, there’s the contractual upside to be found. Because he entered the offseason with just over four years of service on his clock, Alvarez can be tendered a contract in 2017. That would effectively provide an option to Oakland, with the cost to exercise it dependent upon Alvarez’s performance (upon which his prospective arbitration earnings would depend).

Mariners Re-Sign Hisashi Iwakuma

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TODAY, 1:50pm: Iwakuma ended up taking quite a hit on his guaranteed money, it appears. Per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter links), the veteran will receive only a $12MM guarantee. That includes a $1MM signing bonus, $10MM salary for 2016, and a $1MM buyout on the vesting/club options that follow.

The options are priced at $10MM apiece, but they can vest at higher levels. If Iwakuma reaches 162 innings, his 2017 option would be guaranteed at $14MM. If he can tally 162 frames in the following season, or 324 total over 2016-17, then he’d earn $15MM.

There are some other important benefits in the contract. Iwakuma gets a full no-trade clause, Heyman adds (Twitter links). And he can earn up to $2.5MM annually via incentives for innings pitched ($500K at 150 innings and every ten frames thereafter, with 190 innings to maximize the clause).

1:13pm: The guarantee is likely near to the value of the qualifying offer ($15.8MM), Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Iwakuma can earn nearly all of the $45MM he would have been promised by the Dodgers through the vesting clauses, Rosenthal adds.

YESTERDAY: The Mariners have re-signed right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma to a one-year contract with vesting options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, according to a club announcement. General manager Jerry Dipoto initially broke the news to the rest of his staff at the front office holiday party (video link, on Twitter), but the club kept the news under wraps until a formal announcement could be drafted.

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Clearly, this is a drastic shift in Iwakuma’s market. The 34-year-old (35 in April) Wasserman Media Group client was said to have agreed to a three-year, $45MM pact with the Dodgers, but reported concerns over the veteran’s physical caused the Dodgers to attempt to re-work the contract. J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweeted recently that the Dodgers’ offer of a guaranteed third year is what pushed the Dodgers to the front of the line in the Iwakuma sweepstakes, so it would seem that with that third season no longer on the table, Iwakuma’s preference was to return to Seattle on a contract that will allow him to reach that third year if he is able to remain healthy over the course of the next two seasons (although exactly what type of innings-pitched or starts-made marks will trigger the additional years on the contract remains an unknown).

“Obviously, the developments from the last few days allowed us to get back in the game,” said Dipoto in the press release announcing the move. “It’s a credit to our ownership; to Howard Lincoln, to Kevin Mather, to our entire ownership group that we were able to get aggressive and find a way to bring Kuma back to the Mariners. We’re all thrilled. This is a big move for us. We feel like this really puts a finishing touch on what we think has been a very productive off-season.”

Iwakuma will slot into the rotation behind ace Felix Hernandez. His return gives the Mariners a surplus in the rotation, as the club still has newcomers Wade Miley and Nate Karns in addition to returning high-upside youngsters Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. While there are plenty of health-related question marks among that group — Walker and Paxton both have notable injury histories at a young age — it’s an imposing group, on paper, and should make for a formidable rotation when healthy, regardless of which arms round out the mix. (I’d imagine that Miley is a given for the rotation, leaving Karns, Walker and Paxton to compete for the final two spots.)

A lat injury cost Iwakuma more than two months of his 2015 campaign and limited him to 129 2/3 innings. A torn tendon in his right middle finger limited him to 179 innings a year prior. The nature of the concerns that derailed his contract with the Dodgers aren’t known, but the Mariners were comfortable enough to guarantee him a 2016 contract, and the Dodgers themselves were said to be attempting to re-work the deal, which should suggest that there’s no dire injury at play.

Over the course of 653 2/3 Major League innings, the Japanese righty has posted a 3.17 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 50.1 percent ground-ball rate. Considering the fact that the additions of Leonys Martin and Nori Aoki should only enhance the Mariners’ outfield defense, there’s reason to believe that Iwakuma could improve upon his 2014-15 performance, so long as his health permits him to do so.

On the Dodgers’ end of the equation, the loss of Iwakuma marks a disappointing outcome for a club that has seen Zack Greinke sign with the division-rival Diamondbacks and also had a trade for Aroldis Chapman fall through due to previously unreported domestic violence allegations. While there’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff to plot new courses of action, one has to assume that this is nonetheless a discouraging outcome. As it stands right now, the Dodgers have little certainty in their rotation beyond Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood, as Brett Anderson has a significant injury history of his own while Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu missed most and all of the 2015 season due to injuries, respectively.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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