Latest On Gurriel Brothers
The current location of major Cuban ballplayers Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel is still unknown after their recent defection, but they tell MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez that they are training in secret in preparation for a move to a big league organization. As Sanchez notes, such an “underground” approach is not uncommon for players seeking to complete their journey away from Cuba.
There are many obstacles still left for the brothers to navigate, of course, but their intentions are not in doubt. “I know there are a lot of people who worried about us,” said Yulieski, “but we are working hard and training every day to accomplish our dreams to play in the Major Leagues.”
Notably, the pair does have hopes of signing as a package, which is certainly an intriguing possibility. “We would like to play together on the same team, have my brother near me,” Yulieski tells Sanchez. “But if the circumstances don’t permit it and we have to go different paths, that’s what we will do.”
As that quote hints, there very well could be a variety of practicalities that make a common team unlikely. For one thing, the elder Yulieski would likely do well to sign shortly after reaching eligibility, both to increase his value as a near-term contributor and to speed his ascent to the majors. But his younger sibling would need to wait until he turns 23 — and thereby sheds bonus pool limitations — to maximize his earnings.
Needless to say, it also isn’t clear whether the same teams that will be most interested in adding a veteran third baseman will also be best-positioned to make a more future-looking investment in Lourdes. Of course, as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has recently suggested, the package concept could also provide some wiggle room for navigating MLB’s rules.
One important question is whether Yulieski has, as reported, achieved Panamanian residency. He declined to address that matter with Sanchez, but did say that he hopes to join a major league organization “this year” and has intentions “to play as soon as possible.” Notably, Panama’s top immigration officer has denied that Yulieski has current residency, per this Spanish-language link to La Prensa.
Orioles Discussing Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo
FEB. 12, 6:38pm: A deal isn’t expected to come together this evening, Kubatko tweets.
9:06am: There’s some hope that the deal could be completed today, tweets Heyman, though the two sides are still debating whether the deal would be three years or three years plus an option, he notes. Once the Orioles have Gallardo’s deal wrapped up, the focus will shift to a bat, Heyman adds. They’ve been linked to Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce and Pedro Alvarez recently.
FEB. 10, 5:07pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that “if and when” the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, he’ll be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.
10:40am: There’s momentum toward a deal, but some “tweaks” in the proposed terms are needed to finalize a pact, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
9:54am: The sides are “moving close” to a contract that would include three guaranteed years, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. It’s possible that an opt-out would be included, adds Heyman, who notes that an agreement is not yet in place. Baltimore appears to be in the lead to add Gallardo and already recently began reviewing his medicals, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com adds.
9:30am: The Orioles are “making progress” in contract talks with free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has long been said to be interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old, but this report provides the first indication of deepening negotiations.
Gallardo declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers at the outset of the offseason, of course, and thus requires a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick to sign. In the Orioles’ case, the team would stand to part with its first-round choice — currently, the 14th overall selection. And it has been hesitant to do that after already missing out on possible comp picks in two cases (Matt Wieters and Chris Davis).
It’s not clear to what extent other teams remain involved in the hunt for the veteran, but many of the organizations that seemed plausible landing spots have taken alternative routes to building out their rotation. For instance, the Astros signed Doug Fister and the White Sox added Mat Latos. Recent reports also suggest that the Rockies are no longer in pursuit of Gallardo.
The qualifying offer is obviously a factor in Gallardo’s market, as it is with any player who receives one, but the bigger question in his value lies in how you view his results against his peripherals. As Tyler Clippard‘s signing just proved, a lengthy track record of excellence may not always translate to corresponding earnings in free agency, even for somewhat younger pitchers, where there’s a lot of wear-and-tear and signs of declining underlying ability.
In the case of Gallardo, there’s plenty to like about his recent run prevention record, which includes 184 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching last year. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall all the way to 5.9 per nine with his walks rising to 3.3 BB/9. And Gallardo’s average fastball has declined by more than two miles per hour from his highest annual mean velocity.
It’s obvious to see why the Orioles are interested in bolstering a rotation that’s now without Wei-Yin Chen (who at least left a comp pick when he departed). There are options, to be sure. But there isn’t much in the way of upside — Kevin Gausman probably carries the most — and even some of the depth comes with its own questions. Baltimore figures to utilize Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez in the starting five, with pitchers such as Odrisamer Despaigne, Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson also factoring into the competition.
Ultimately, it’s not clear that Gallardo would end up representing a truly significant upgrade over Baltimore’s current options, but he’s an established arm with a nice track record of durability. It’s worth noting, too — as Steve Adams pointed out to me — that his strong groundball rate (49.3% last year) would figure to play well with a high-quality Orioles infield defense to back him.
Athletics Acquire Khris Davis, Designate Sean Nolin
The Athletics have acquired outfielder Khris Davis from the Brewers in a deal that will send catching prospect Jacob Nottingham and righty Bubba Derby to Milwaukee, per announcements from both teams. Oakland has designated pitcher Sean Nolin to clear roster space.
It’s certainly an interesting swap for both organizations. Oakland will presumably utilize the slugging Davis in left field, where he could share time with veteran Coco Crisp and another younger, right-handed slugger in Mark Canha. The move bolsters the club’s depth across the outfield grass while delivering some upside, too.
After all, Davis only just turned 28, will play at the league minimum this year, and can be controlled for three more seasons thereafter via arbitration. And he’s shown quite a bit with the bat, following a solid 2014 with an even better campaign last year. Over 440 plate appearances, he not only swatted 27 home runs, but posted a strong .247/.323/.505 overall batting line.
Davis is not very highly regarded with the glove, though defensive metrics have been mixed. He actually rated as a plus performer in left in 2014, but dipped into the negative territory last year.
The removal of Nolin from the 40-man roster is interesting to note, too. While he may yet remain with the A’s, if he can pass through outright waivers, the 26-year-old lefty was a not-insignificant part of last winter’s stunning Josh Donaldson trade. He wasn’t great in limited MLB action in 2015, allowing 17 earned runs and logging just 15 strikeouts in 29 frames, but had earned a promotion after battling through injury issues to post a 2.66 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 over 47 1/3 innings at Triple-A.
Looking at the Milwaukee side of the deal, the 20-year-old Nottingham looks like the jewel. He went to Oakland from the Astros — then the home of current Brewers GM David Stearns — as the key piece of last summer’s Scott Kazmir deal. He’s still a ways off, having only reached the High-A level, but does represent a theoretical long-term replacement for star catcher Jonathan Lucroy — who has, of course, been mentioned as a trade candidate quite often this winter.
Nottingham impressed last year, putting up a cumulative .316/.372/.505 batting line with 17 home runs over 511 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he did not crack Baseball America’s recent organizational top-ten list for A’s prospects, though others have been higher on him. John Sickels of SB Nation, for instance, rated him fifth among A’s prospects while noting that his bat is ahead of his glove. And Baseball Prospectus went so far as to place Nottingham as the 66th-best prospect league-wide.
Derby, a sixth-round pick in last year’s draft, had a strong debut in 2015. He only worked 37 1/3 total innings between Rookie ball and Low-A, but racked up 47 strikeouts while holding opposing clubs to just five earned runs. Soon to turn 22, Derby is a product of San Diego State University.
Parting with Davis appears to set up the Brewers to utilize youngster Domingo Santana in left field, giving him a clear shot at regular playing time. Milwaukee has several young players and rebound candidates who’ll be stepping into more regular roles, with an increasingly interesting slate of young talent approaching MLB readiness in the farm.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first reported that a deal was nearing (Twitter links) and then tweeted that Davis would be heading to Oakland in the swap.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Aroldis Chapman
The Yankees have avoided arbitration with recently-acquired lefty Aroldis Chapman by agreeing to a one-year, $11.325MM deal, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
That figure comes in $275K above the midpoint between the two sides’ filing numbers of $13.1MM and $9MM. It does fall a fair sight shy of the $12.9MM payday projected by MLBTR coming into the winter.
Chapman, of course, came to the Yankees at a discounted price after it was revealed that he was allegedly involved in a serious domestic disturbance. While charges will not be filed against him, there is still a possibility of league discipline relating to the matter.
The Yankees will obviously hope that the investigation does not reveal cause for a lengthy suspension, with intentions of utilizing Chapman alongside fellow late-inning aces Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in what could be the most fearsome trio of relievers ever seen in one pen. Anything close to a typical season from the dominating lefty would not only make the trade an easy win (from an on-field perspective, at least), but would set up New York to recoup a draft pick by making him a qualifying offer.
Last year may not quite have been Chapman’s very best overall campaign, but it probably cemented his status as the league’s best reliever regardless. He ended with a 1.63 ERA on the back of a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 strikeout rate. He did permit 4.5 free passes per regulation game, and doesn’t generate many grounders, but that hardly detracts from his near-invincible aura. Indeed, Chapman has struck out nearly half of the hitters he’s faced over the past two seasons and continues to work in the 99 to 100 mph range with his average fastball.
Jenrry Mejia Gets Lifetime Ban After Third Positive PED Test
Mets reliever Jenrry Mejia has been banned permanently from the majors after his third positive PED test, according to a league announcement. Remarkably, Mejia tested positive for the banned substance boldenone after earning two suspensions just last year.
It’s a truly stunning result, made all the more surprising given that Mejia was on track to resume his career with New York. Indeed, he recently agreed to a $2.47MM salary to avoid arbitration. While he was already to sacrifice a good portion of that money to finish serving his second suspension — which was of the 162-game variety — he’ll lose the remainder after today’s news.
Mejia becomes the first player to receive a permanent ban under MLB’s “three strikes and you’re out” PED policy. There is a provision that will allow the 26-year-old righty to seek reinstatement, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com notes on Twitter. But even if successful, he’d have to wait one year to ask and serve a minimum two-year ban.
In a statement, the Mets said that the club is “deeply disappointed” in Mejia. He had seemed destined to return to a prominent place in the club’s pen after finishing out his second ban. While New York seemed primed to cut ties at one point, the upside in Mejia’s cheap contract and rested, youthful arm certainly justified the risk. But Mejia somehow proved unable to avoid PED usage even while subject to stepped-up testing as a prior offender.
After failing to hold down a rotation job in 2014, Mejia had shown real promise in a relief role. He ended that campaign as the team’s closer, posting 28 saves and working to a 2.72 ERA over 56 1/3 innings out of the pen. While he has since been supplanted in the ninth by Jeurys Familia, Mejia certainly seemed to have a plausible chance of winning back a set-up role later in the 2015 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Seeking Part-Time Writer
We’re looking to add one person to the MLBTR writing team, in a part-time position that pays hourly. The criteria:
- Availability to regularly work an 8am-5pm (central time) news coverage shift every Sunday is required. We’re also seeking strong availability for other weekend and weeknight hours.
- Exceptional knowledge of all 30 baseball teams, no discernible bias. Knowledge of hot stove concepts like arbitration, draft pick compensation for free agents and international/draft spending limitations.
- A high school degree is required, and further education is preferred. Please include your highest completed level of education in your application.
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- Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news quickly and concisely.
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- If you’re interested, email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and explain how you stand out and qualify in a couple of short paragraphs. Please attach your resume to the email. We often receive several hundred applications, so unfortunately we will not be able to reply to each one.
In your application, please include the answer to this preliminary question: After which season is Corey Dickerson projected to reach free agency?
Orioles Have Interest In Fowler, Bruce, Alvarez
FEB. 11, 9:37pm: Cincinnati thinks that the O’s do have the young talent needed to put together a deal for Bruce, Jon Heyman tweets. Baltimore will probably add at least one additional bat, he adds.
8:08am: At least one Orioles official prefers Fowler to Gallardo, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, but it appears that the overall consensus among Baltimore decision-makers is that a run at Fowler is contingent on first agreeing to terms with Gallardo.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post, meanwhile, tweets that the Orioles considered a combination of Alvarez and Yoenis Cespedes as a fallback to signing Chris Davis at one point, so it stands to reason that the club does still have some interest in Alvarez. Sherman also tweets that the Orioles feel that freeing Alvarez from the need to worry about his fielding could turn him into their own version of a Kendrys Morales-esque slugger at DH. (Of course, that would shift Trumbo to right field, creating some defensive issues.) Sherman tweets that the Orioles would like to add one more lefty bat to the mix, echoing reports that Alvarez, Fowler and Bruce are all in play.
FEB. 10, 5:17pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the Orioles are interested in something in the vicinity of Howie Kendrick‘s two-year, $20MM with regard to Fowler (links to Twitter). He also hears that there’s been at least informal dialogue between the two sides recently.
4:29pm: The Orioles are reportedly nearing an agreement with right-hander Yovani Gallardo, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that if that deal is ultimately finalized, it might only mark the beginning of Baltimore’s late-season maneuvering (links to Twitter). Signing Gallardo would require forfeiture of the team’s No. 14 overall draft pick, and if Baltimore surrenders that pick, the team would be willing to part with the 29th overall selection (its second overall pick, received as compensation for Wei-Yin Chen signing with the Marlins) to add Fowler to the mix. The Orioles also have interest in a trade for Reds right fielder Jay Bruce and interest in free agent Pedro Alvarez, according to Rosenthal. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that he, too, has heard that the Orioles would be willing to part with their second pick for Fowler, though not everyone in the front office is in agreement on that front.
Fowler, 29, is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having batted .250/.346/.411 with a career-high 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases (the second-highest single-season total of his career). The Orioles have a notable need in the outfield, as mainstay Adam Jones is the only surefire source of production in the current group. Korean slugger Hyun-Soo Kim has the upside to be an everyday left fielder, based on his track record in the KBO, but he’s untested in Major League waters. The right field picture is even murkier, with Nolan Reimold, Ryan Flaherty and Mark Trumbo as 40-man options and non-roster invitees L.J. Hoes, Xavier Avery and Alfredo Marte also in the mix. Trumbo, though, profiles more as a designated hitter and has traditionally been a defensive liability in the outfield.
Trumbo may, in fact, have to play in the outfield were the Orioles to sign Alvarez and give him a regular role, as he’d be limited to DH, leaving Trumbo and Chris Davis as options at first base and in right field. Alvarez could, in theory, be a platoon option at DH, with Trumbo handling right field against right-handed pitchers and slotting in at designated hitter with a lefty on the mound.
Bruce, 29 in April, is coming off his second straight disappointing season after a poor finish to the 2015 campaign dragged down his numbers on the year. Bruce was batting .260/.342/.492 as of Aug. 1, but he limped to a .173/.214/.345 finish across his final 59 games, leaving him with an overall batting line of .226/.294/.434 line. Bruce did mash 26 home runs — the fifth time in the past six seasons that he’s hit 25 or more. He’s owed $12.5MM in 2016 and has a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2017 season on his contract as well.
Adding Fowler, in particular, would make some sense for the Orioles, as he’d be a defensive and offensive upgrade over their current options in right field. The fit between the two sides has been addressed in multiple editions of the MLBTR Podcast and once again this week in the MLBTR Mailbag, when I opined that Fowler represents an even more substantial upgrade to the Orioles’ internal options than does Gallardo. The downside, of course, is that the Orioles already possess one of baseball’s weakest farm systems (indeed, Rosenthal notes that Baltimore may not even have enough prospect capital to entice the Reds to part with Bruce). Parting with the top two picks in their 2016 draft would only further deplete the team’s chances of re-stocking the farm and could prove costly as the rest of the roster ages. Then again, the Orioles could potentially recoup draft picks in the event that they make qualifying offers to Gallardo and/or Fowler, should either perform well and be eligible to enter the open market again next winter (either via one-year contract or an opt-out clause, as is reportedly being discussed with Gallardo).
Royals Reach Two-Year Extension With Mike Moustakas
The Royals are closing in on a two-year deal with third baseman Mike Moustakas, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (Twitter links), with Jon Heyman tweeting that it’s a done deal. He is expected to be guaranteed $14.3MM in the contract, per Flanagan, with $5.6MM coming in 2016 and $8.7MM for the following year.
With the move, Kansas City has avoided an arbitration hearing with the 27-year-old and precluded any need for future arb negotiations. Moustakas could still partake in long-term talks, of course, but this agreement buys up all of his remaining arbitration eligibility without adding any team control.
In that regard, Moustakas joins teammate Lorenzo Cain in locking in a raise but failing to reach a lengthier accommodation with the reigning World Series champs. Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, and A.J. Pollock are other prominent players who have landed two-year, arb-only pacts as a way to help bridge 2016 salary disputes.
The $5.6MM price point set for the coming season represents the exact midpoint between the sides’ $7MM and $4.2MM filing figures. And it lands just a shade below the $5.7MM salary that MLBTR projected earlier in the winter. Moustakas, a client of the Boras Corporation, had earned $2.64MM in his first turn at the arb process last year.
Moustakas was long considered a significant prospect, but largely disappointed in his first four years in the majors. But a late surge for the surprising 2014 Royals raised hopes that he’d found his groove, and his 2015 campaign suggests he did. Moustakas not only turned in another strong defensive campaign, but surged to a .284/.348/.470 slash and career-high 22 home runs in a performance that dwarfed anything he’d done previously.
With age and glovework on his side, a repeat of that strong effort won’t be needed for K.C. to make out on this new contract. But there’s every hope that Moustakas has matured at the plate and established a new performance baseline, having decreased his reliance on pulling the ball and found success against left-handed pitching.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson Reach Two-Year Extension
The Blue Jays have announced a two-year, $28.65MM deal with star third baseman Josh Donaldson. He’ll earn $11.65MM in 2016 and $17MM for the following year.
The sides had been set for arbitration, with Donaldson filing at $11.8MM and the team countering at $11.35MM. While the gulf between those numbers is obviously a pittance compared to the overall value involved, the Jays employ a “trial and file” strategy that made a hearing inevitable after numbers were swapped — barring a multi-year deal. The sides could have worked out a deal to buy out all of Donaldson’s remaining arb years — he was a Super Two last year and is under control through 2018 via arbitration — if not a yet longer pact to lock up some free agent seasons, but chose the more straightforward option.
Fresh off of an American League MVP award, Donaldson had enormous earning power at the arb table. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz broke down his case in January, noting that the projected $12MM salary would have represented a record $7.7MM raise. Obviously, both team and player agreed that was a bit more than was warranted, though even the Jays were willing to pay the same bump that the prior record holder received (Chris Davis, with a $7.05MM raise).
The new deal not only rewards Donaldson for his monster 2015 season with a nice salary in the coming season, but also promises him a second huge payday. It’s less than he might have earned with another strong season — and much less than a repeat MVP effort would have brought — but significantly reduces his risk in exchange for some potential cost savings and certainty to the club.
Donaldson, who came over from the A’s last winter, went to a hearing with his new club before he ever suited up. The club won, with Donaldson settling for $4.3MM — a fair sight shy of the $5.75MM that he sought. Of course, he’s now more than made up for it with this new deal.
There certainly weren’t any lingering effects from that adversarial proceeding on Donaldson, who exceeded already-high expectations last year. The MVP tab was well deserved, as the 30-year-old delivered a .297/.371/.568 slash and 41 home runs, helping to lead Toronto to an AL East pennant. With typically stellar defense mixed in, Donaldson tallied 8.8 rWAR and 8.7 fWAR.
Something of a late-bloomer, Donaldson represents a tough decision as a long-term extension candidate. There’s little chance he’d take a significant discount to give away free agent years, but he’s already under control through his age-32 season and has every right to demand a premium payday.
Toronto is, of course, already examining the possibility of buying up seasons of sluggers in their mid-30s, as pending free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are on the docket for extension talks this spring. Having Donaldson’s salary for 2017 already on the books certainly removes a variable, though balancing the long-term checkbook still seems a matter that will require some care.
Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reported the agreement and approximate value. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the precise guarantee (via the Washington Post).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
White Sox Sign Mat Latos
The White Sox have officially added free agent righty Mat Latos on a one-year, $3MM pact. It’s a straight guaranteed deal with no incentives or options.
Latos has long appeared to be one of the better bounceback options on this year’s market, as he’s only just turned 28 and has established a rather lofty ceiling in the majors. The Bledsoe Agency client does come with some health concerns after dealing with elbow issues and tallying just 218 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he was largely healthy after an early DL stint in 2015.
Clubs are often willing to give more significant guarantees to such players — Justin Masterson, for instance, got $9.5MM from the Red Sox and Doug Fister just secured $7MM from the Astros. Low-base, high-incentive deals are another popular option; to take but one recent example, Bronson Arroyo received $6MM worth of upside in his deal with the Nationals (if he cracks the major league roster).
In the case of Latos, though, it seems there may have been some hesitation about adding a player who has developed a questionable reputation in prior clubhouses. It doesn’t help that he scuffled badly down the stretch with both the Dodgers and Angels, of course, but it remains notable that Latos fell so far shy of expectations — $12MM on a one-year deal, in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — in a market that paid out so much for pitching. It was just last winter that the Marlins gave up a solid young pitching prospect for the rights to employ Latos at what turned out to be a $9.4MM salary.
By taking on some risk, but making only a limited commitment, the White Sox seem to have made a worthy gamble to bolster their rotation. The staff’s top three looks quite strong, but as August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs notes, John Danks and Erik Johnson are an underwhelming duo behind that group and there isn’t much depth to speak of. Fagerstrom was explaining why a move for Yovani Gallardo might make sense, but that would seem rather unlikely after today’s move.
Of course, the addition of Latos represents quite a different proposition than that of a player such as Gallardo, whose main claim to free agent earnings comes from durability and solid innings. But gambling on the still-youthful righty is arguably a better allocation of resources for a club that’s already committed to exceed its 2015 Opening Day payroll and still has other areas to improve.
Latos has every incentive to get himself back on track, and the upside is significant. Other than his struggles as a rookie and his troubles last year, the big righty has been a major contributor. In over 900 innings between 2010 and 2014, he logged a 3.27 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.
Looking more closely at his efforts last year, it’s easy to see cause to look past an unsightly 4.95 ERA. All major ERA estimators valued him as a sub-4.00 pitcher, and he not only recovered velocity from 2014, but improved over his early-season results as the year wore on. Latos posed a swinging strike rate (9.9%) that lines up with his earlier years’ work. Of course, the finish left much to be desired, but on the whole there’s plenty to roll the dice on.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick first reported the signing on Twitter. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago had the value via Twitter. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo noted (on Twitter) that no incentives or options were included.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.