Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sought $500MM Net Present Value In Extension Talks
Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).
The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.
That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.
The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.
Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.
Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.
Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.
Dodgers Sign Dave Roberts To Four-Year Extension
The Dodgers announced the signing of manager Dave Roberts to a four-year extension that covers the 2026-29 seasons. The team did not confirm salary figures, but Roberts will reportedly be paid $32.4MM — an average annual value of $8.1MM. That surpasses the $8MM AAV on Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal with the Cubs.
The news doesn’t come as a shock. Clubs generally don’t like to have skippers in “lame duck” position, that is, managing on a deal that is about to expire. Reporting throughout the winter has suggested the Dodgers and Roberts were likely to work out a new deal prior to the start of the 2025 season. It was reported on Thursday that the two sides were making progress on a deal that would see Roberts surpass Counsell’s AAV. On Friday, Roberts referred to the talks as being on “the one-yard line”, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.
Roberts has been at the helm for the Dodgers since November of 2015. The club was already in good overall position at that time, having just won three straight division titles under manager Don Mattingly, but with three straight deflating postseason losses. They lost the NLCS to the Cardinals in 2013 and then suffered quick NLDS defeats in the next two seasons.
Under Roberts, the regular season success has continued and the postseason record improved. They made it to the NLCS in the first season and the World Series in his second and third campaigns. The club lost the 2017 World Series to the Astros and the 2018 series to the Red Sox, both asterisk-marked campaigns for those winning clubs. The Dodgers suffered a quick NLDS exit in 2019 but hoisted the trophy in the shortened 2020 season. The next three seasons saw the club eliminated before the World Series, but they won it all again in 2024, getting Roberts his second ring in five years.
Roberts currently sports a managerial record of 851-506 in the regular season and 56-44 in the postseason, with the Dodgers getting to the playoffs in each season with him at the helm. Roberts has had some loaded rosters to work with but appears to be well-liked by players and other Dodger personnel.
Counsell left the Brewers after the 2023 season with the reported goal of improving the earning power of managers. Joe Torre had been able to secure an $8MM salary in his days with the Yankees but skipper salaries had seemingly stalled. Reportedly, Terry Francona was the highest-paid manager in 2023 with a $4.5MM salary. Counsell managed to get a five-year, $40MM deal from the Cubs, an AAV of $8MM. That seemingly set a baseline foundation, with Roberts able to negotiate his way just over that line. Earlier in the winter, Roberts said he was hopeful of getting a new deal done but wanted “to feel (his) value.”
Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Roberts and the Dodgers had agreed to a new four-year deal worth slightly more than $8MM annually. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal would start in 2026. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported the $32.4MM total.
2025 Trade Deadline To Be On July 31
The 2025 trade deadline will be on Thursday, July 31st at 6pm Eastern/5pm Central. Joel Sherman of The New York Post was among those to relay the decision. That’s a slight change from last year’s deadline, which was July 30.
Traditionally, the trade deadline had always been on July 31. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the commissioner can choose a date between July 28 and August 3 for the deadline. This is mostly so that the league can avoid having the deadline occur when games are going on and players have to be removed in a “hug watch” scenario. If the deadline were to fall on a weekend, when there are many games all throughout the day, the chances of a player being dealt during an ongoing game would be higher.
The league has usually opted for a weekday with a lighter schedule. It was on August 1st in 2023 and July 30 last year, both of those dates being Tuesdays. This year, as mentioned, July 31st is a Thursday. There are only three games on the schedule for that date.
Gerrit Cole To Have Tommy John Surgery
The Yankees have announced that ace Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. The team will provide further updates following the surgery, but there is no doubt that the 2023 AL Cy Young winner will miss the entire 2025 season.
Cole, 34, went for diagnostic tests on his elbow last week. He told reporters he was “concerned” by the results of the initial testing but expressed some hope that a second opinion could assuage the worst of his concerns. Unfortunately, Cole’s appointment today with Dr. ElAttrache only confirmed that the right-hander needs Tommy John to repair a torn UCL in his pitching arm.
This is a crushing blow to the reigning AL champions. The typical recovery timeline for Tommy John surgery is roughly 12-18 months. New York survived without Cole for just under three months last season when elbow inflammation kept him out until mid-June. This year, the Yankees will have to get by without their number one starter at all. They must be glad they won the bidding war to sign Max Fried this offseason, inking the two-time All-Star to an eight-year, $218MM deal. The southpaw will now lead a rotation that also features Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Rounding out the starting five to begin the year will likely be Marcus Stroman (whom the Yankees are surely glad they didn’t trade earlier this offseason) and top pitching prospect Will Warren. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, will miss the beginning of the year with a lat strain but will hopefully return sometime in June. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco is another arm who could offer rotation depth.
That group of arms could still make up a perfectly capable starting rotation for a contending club, but the error bars are much wider now, and there is no question the Yankees are a much less dangerous World Series contender without Cole. It doesn’t help that they’re also dealing with injury issues on the other side of the ball. Veteran bats Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) and DJ LeMahieu (calf) are likely to miss the beginning of the season.
Presumably, the Yankees will consider their options to upgrade their rotation externally. Available free agents include Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Spencer Turnbull, although none of those names offer anything close to the star power the Yankees lost. Thus, if GM Brian Cashman wants to find a top-of-the-rotation replacement for Cole, he’ll have to turn to the trade market. Some of the most interesting potential trade candidates include Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, Luis Castillo of the Mariners, and Dylan Cease and Michael King of the Padres. The most recent reporting on all of those pitchers suggests that an offseason trade is unlikely, but a desperate Yankees team could certainly change that.
The Yankees had a chance to part ways with the six-time All-Star this offseason when Cole triggered his opt-out clause in November. The team could have blocked his opt-out by adding another year and $36MM to the end of his contract, which they chose not to do. However, the two sides ultimately agreed to stick together as if Cole had never triggered his opt-out in the first place, with the Yankees keeping him around for the four years and $144MM remaining on his original guaranteed deal. In other words, while the Yankees may have had their concerns about Cole’s longevity, they could not have been overly worried that his elbow troubles would rear their ugly head again so soon.
From 2017-22, Cole led all pitchers with 173 starts and 1070 2/3 innings pitched. He dealt with some elbow inflammation in 2016, but from then until 2024, his only IL stint was due to COVID-19 protocols. In an age of ever-increasing arm injuries and ever-decreasing inning counts, Cole has been a workhorse, topping 200 innings in a season six times in the last ten years. Sadly, his run of healthy seasons came to an end last year, and this coming season will be the first since 2012 in which Cole does not pitch. Instead, he will turn his focus toward his rehab in an effort to miss as little of the 2026 campaign as possible.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
A’s Sign Lawrence Butler To Seven-Year Extension
March 10: The A’s made it official today, announcing they have signed Butler to a seven-year extension plus a club option for 2032.
March 7: Butler’s deal will pay him a $3MM signing bonus and $2.25MM in 2025, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports. He’ll then earn salaries of $3.25MM, $5MM, $8MM, $10MM, $14MM and $16MM from 2026-31. The Athletics’ option checks in at $20MM and comes with a $4MM buyout. The contract also contains escalators that can push the option value north to $26MM, per the report. In all, Butler can max out at $87.5MM over eight years if he hits all those escalators and the option is picked up.
March 6: The A’s are in agreement with right fielder Lawrence Butler on a seven-year, $65.5MM extension, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. There’s a club option for an eighth season. The contract buys out at least two free agent seasons, while the option covers a third would-be free agent year. The team has yet to announce the signing, which is pending a physical. Butler is represented by CAA Sports.
A sixth-round pick out of high school in 2018, Butler struggled over his first couple minor league seasons. Things clicked for him in Low-A in 2021, and he continued to hit his way up the ladder. The lefty hitter reached the majors in 2023 and hit .211 over his first 42 games. While he got out to another relatively slow start last year, a monster second half demonstrated his potential.
Butler raked at a .300/.345/.553 clip with 13 homers and 32 extra-base hits after the All-Star Break. Among qualified hitters, he ranked 10th in wRC+ over that stretch. The nine more productive batters in the second half are stars: Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Lindor, Jackson Merrill, and teammate Brent Rooker.
It’s impressive company, though it’s worth noting that Eugenio Suárez and Gavin Lux were among those closely behind Butler in second-half production. Three months is still a relatively small sample size. Butler went into last year’s All-Star Break as a career .205/.260/.337 hitter. He had fanned in almost 30% of his plate appearances to that point. He sliced the strikeouts to a tidy 19.8% clip in the second half. The whiffs began to creep back up in September, though he still managed a .280/.330/.409 in the season’s final month.
The A’s believe he’ll build off that strong finish. Butler ended the season with a .262/.317/.490 slash across 451 plate appearances. He hit 22 homers and went a perfect 18-18 on stolen base attempts. While most of his playing time came against right-handed pitching, he more than held his own in unfavorable platoon settings. Butler hit .291 with five homers in 89 plate appearances against southpaws.
Butler led off for Mark Kotsay throughout the second half. He has sufficient on-base skills to hit atop the lineup or the power to slot into the order’s middle third. He’s an effective baserunner who’ll play every day in right field. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved each graded him as a league average defender over 955 1/3 innings. Butler has solid speed and arm strength, so he probably has the tools to be an above-average corner outfield defender. He started 32 games in center field as a rookie, but he only played four MLB innings there last season. JJ Bleday will play up the middle on most days.
The A’s had Butler under club control for five seasons. He wasn’t on track to reach arbitration for another two years. There have been a few recent extensions for hitters in that 1-2 year service bucket. The Pirates inked third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM guarantee in 2022. The Rockies signed a seven-year, $63.5MM extension with shortstop Ezequiel Tovar last spring. The Nationals hammered out an eight-year, $50MM agreement with catcher Keibert Ruiz two seasons ago.
Butler has shown a higher offensive ceiling than all those players had at the time of their deals. They’d each been top prospects and played more valuable positions, though. Tovar and Hayes were already plus defenders. Butler’s deal puts him alongside the Hayes and Tovar contracts. That’s a reasonable landing spot. Butler locks in a significant sum that hedges against injury or regression. The A’s buy into his breakout relatively early. If they’d waited until next offseason, another strong season would probably have pushed Butler’s asking price beyond nine figures.
The A’s have now signed three of the four largest contracts in franchise history over the past few months. Their three-year, $67MM free agent deal with Luis Severino stands as their biggest ever. They signed Rooker to a five-year, $60MM extension with a sixth-year club option. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, this is the first time the A’s have extended a pre-arbitration player since their $10MM deal with Sean Doolittle in April 2014.
The spike in spending has coincided with the franchise’s three-year move to Sacramento. They’ve reportedly needed to get their competitive balance tax number to $105MM in order to avoid a grievance from the MLB Players Association regarding their use of revenue sharing funds. They’d already achieved that between deals for Severino, Rooker, and reliever José Leclerc, as well as the trade for starter Jeffrey Springs.
Butler joins Rooker as the only players under contract through at least 2028, the scheduled opening of their Las Vegas ballpark. The option extends their control window through 2032. Butler would hit free agency after his age-31 season if they exercise the option.
It’s possible this is the first of a handful of spring deals for the A’s. General manager David Forst told Evan Drellich of The Athletic last month that the team had opened talks with multiple players. MLBTR highlighted a few of their extension candidates in a post for Front Office subscribers last week.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Francisco Alvarez Out 6-8 Weeks Due To Left Hamate Surgery
11:09PM: Alvarez suffered the injury while taking a swing during live batting practice yesterday, Mendoza told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters. Mendoza expects Alvarez to miss the full eight weeks due to the added wear-and-tear that catching duties will place on his left hand.
9:52AM: Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez will undergo surgery to fix a fractured left hamate bone, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Newsday’s Tim Healey). Alvarez will miss the next 6-8 weeks recovering from the procedure.
It’s an unwelcome development for both Alvarez and the Mets, and it marks the second straight season that Alvarez has suffered an early-season injury to his left hand. Last April, Alvarez suffered a torn thumb ligament that required surgery, and he ended up missing a little over seven weeks’ time. He returned in mid-June and hit .237/.311/.411 with 10 home runs in 283 plate appearances over the rest of the regular season, but Alvarez struggled to a .577 OPS over 47 PA in the playoffs.
Considered one of the game’s top prospects during his time in New York’s farm system, Alvarez has posted almost exactly league-average production with a 99 wRC+ over his 779 career PA at the Major League level. These numbers are still quite respectable for a catcher that just turned 23 last November, plus Statcast has given his defense (particularly his framing) above-average grades, even though his blocking left a lot to be desired in 2024.
If Alvarez is going to make the jump from solid regular to star in 2025, it’ll now have to wait until at least the latter half of April. Hamate fractures or breaks are common enough that the 6-8 week timeline is more or less set in stone for most players, though naturally complications can arise when dealing with any hand-related injury. Such normal actions as gripping a bat could take a bit of re-familiarization, and Alvarez’s left hand will also be tested by regularly catching pitches.
With Alvarez sidelined, Luis Torrens now becomes the top catcher on the Mets’ depth chart. Acquired in a trade with the Yankees last May, Torrens hit .229/.292/.373 in 130 PA with the Mets last season, which roughly matches his career slash line over 937 PA and parts of seven big league seasons. Torrens did a great job of throwing out baserunners (would-be stealers were only 12-for-23 against him) last year but isn’t considered a great defensive catcher overall.
Torrens and Alvarez are the only catchers on New York’s 40-man roster, and Jakson Reetz‘s eight career MLB games make him the only other backstop in the organization with any big league experience at all. It seems exceedingly likely that the Mets will now look to acquire another experienced catcher or two to compete for playing time over the remainder of Spring Training.
These new faces could come in the form of players cut from other teams’ spring camps, or perhaps a club could be already be looking to trade a non-roster invitee catcher if the club knows this player won’t be part of their Opening Day plans. Looking to the free agent market, former Mets catcher James McCann is unsigned and could be brought back as a familiar face. Yasmani Grandal is also a known quantity to David Stearns, as Grandal played for the Brewers in 2019 when Stearns was Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations.
Alvarez’s hamate fracture is the latest in a series of injuries to have already hit the Mets this spring. The rotation has been thinned out since Sean Manaea (oblique strain) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) will both start the season on the injured list, and backup infielder Nick Madrigal is expected to miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery. While Alvarez’s injury is comparatively less serious, the lack of catching depth makes his absence a trickier roster hole to address.
Rays Owner Stu Sternberg Facing Pressure To Sell From Fellow Owners, Commissioner’s Office
Rays owner Stu Sternberg is facing pressure to sell the club from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and “several” fellow owners, according to a report from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. On Thursday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that while no deal was close, a group of businesspeople local to the Tampa Bay area have started to put together ownership groups with their sights set on purchasing the team. Drellich’s report expands on that report, confirming that no sale is close but that “several groups” with ties to Florida have expressed interest in purchasing the club.
Drellich reports that those involved in one group include the family of San Francisco 49ners owner Edward DeBartolo Jr. and former Yankees minority owner Joe Molloy, with Tampa-area business man Dan Doyle Jr. involved in another group. Molloy subsequently confirmed to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he’s leading a group with interest in purchasing the Rays, adding that his group would have interest in pursuing the stadium deal the Rays currently have in place with Pinellas County and the city of St. Petersburg. Notably, Molloy led the Yankees while George Steinbrenner was suspended during the 1990s, while Doyle previously expressed interest in purchasing the Rays back in 2023.
That deal, of course, has been publicly thrown into doubt by clashes between the Rays and the Pinellas County Board of Commissioners. The county delayed a vote in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton that the Rays claim held up the construction process and increased costs, and the club argues that it should not cover those costs on its own despite the deal stating that the Rays will handle any cost overruns. That deal is just weeks away from a key deadline on March 31, just after Opening Day, that requires Sternberg to meet certain obligations if the stadium deal is to proceed.
Given the hostile relationship between Sternberg and local officials, Drellich suggests that it could be difficult to revive the deal if Sternberg allows that March 31 deadline to pass without acting. It’s possible the deal could be revived in some form under new ownership, however, and that appears to be the impetus behind Manfred’s push for Sternberg to either work out the stadium issue or sell the club. Drellich emphasizes the MLB believes strongly in Florida as a viable market despite the lackluster financial showings of the Rays and Marlins since the franchises came into being during the 1990s, and the league seems unlikely to approve relocation out of Florida for Sternberg—or a hypothetical future Rays owner. If the stadium deal in St. Pete falls through, Drellich reports that MLB believes the Ybor City neighborhood in Tampa or perhaps even Orlando could be viable alternatives for the Rays.
As the commissioner’s office looks to pressure Sternberg, Drellich writes that the league could look to take away at least some of the Rays’ revenue sharing dollars, which he notes add up to around $60MM annually. That would be a major blow to the club’s finances, but it’s one that could not be exercised unilaterally by Manfred. Instead, alterations to revenue sharing would need to be collectively bargained during the next CBA negotiations. The current agreement runs through 2026, and when it expires Drellich suggests that Manfred and the league could seek a carve out in the CBA that applies specifically to the Rays that would cut the club off from its revenue sharing dollars if they failed to get a stadium deal done before a certain date. As Drellich points out, the league utilized a similar tactic to pressure A’s owner John Fisher into getting a binding stadium agreement into place by January 15, 2024.
Of course, any pressure tactic that needs to be collectively bargained wouldn’t necessarily have much of an immediate effect given that the end of the current CBA is nearly two years away. With that being said, Drellich does note that Manfred has some ways to financially pressure the Rays and Sternberg at his disposal in the more immediate future: the commissioner’s discretionary fund and supplemental discretionary fund. The distribution of those funds is not publicized, but Drellich notes that the Rays have been a beneficiary and that the payments from those funds are typically in the neighborhood of “several” million dollars, though not quite reaching tens of millions.
It’s unclear to what extent any losses in funding from the league, be they from the commissioner’s discretionary fund or eventual revenue sharing losses at some point in the future, would impact the Rays from a baseball perspective. The club already runs one of the league’s lowest payrolls with their $90MM projected payroll for 2025 ranking in the bottom five in the league per RosterResource. That’s exactly in line with last year’s payroll numbers, but slightly higher than where the club has lived in the past. It wouldn’t be a shock, then, if the losses in funding were passed on in at least some capacity to the baseball operations department.
Infielder Ha-Seong Kim‘s $16MM player option is the only guaranteed contract on the Rays’ books beyond this season apart from the Wander Franco contract that is currently going unpaid, but the club does have a number of pricey club options on veterans like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Pete Fairbanks next season. If the club’s baseball operations budget tightens in response to financial pressure from the league, it’s possible the front office could look to move some of those players in the offseason or even at the trade deadline this year depending on the club’s position in the standings.
As Drellich notes, there’s little incentive for Sternberg to lower his asking price for the Rays in order to facilitate a sale. The Rays were estimated to be worth $1.25 billion according to franchise valuations by Forbes last year, and that value figures to have only gone up since then. Even if Manfred and the commissioner’s office begin putting financial pressure on Sternberg to sell, those financial losses would surely pale in comparison to the potential loss in value that would come with selling low on a franchise estimated to be worth more than a billion dollars.
Gerrit Cole Recommended For Tommy John Surgery, Yankees Awaiting Second Opinion
Yankees fans have been nervously awaiting news regarding ace Gerrit Cole ever since he was sent for “diagnostic tests” on his elbow on Friday. Today, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that Cole has been recommended for Tommy John surgery, though the Yankees are currently waiting to receive a second opinion to confirm that diagnosis. The news is in line with reporting yesterday that indicated Cole was “concerned” about his elbow and that the righty was seeking a second opinion on the issue.
If the diagnosis is confirmed, the Yankees would lose Cole for not only the 2025 season but likely at least some of the 2026 campaign as well. Even if a second opinion suggests that Cole could rehab the issue rather than go under the knife, even a relatively minor elbow issue could wipe out much of Cole’s 2025 campaign. It was just last year that the veteran right-hander was sidelined by elbow inflammation for nearly three months at the start of the season and ultimately did not make his season debut until June 19. While it’s impossible to establish a timetable for Cole’s return until the second opinion comes in and the Yankees announce more information about their veteran’s status, even the most optimistic of estimates would likely leave Cole out of commission for around that long.
Last season, the Yankees were able to lean on the surprise contributions of eventual AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil to round out their rotation while Cole was absent. They’ll enjoy no such luxury this time around, as Gil is ticketed to miss multiple months himself due to a lat strain. With Cole and Gil both seemingly ticketed for significant absences to open the 2025 campaign, a starting staff that was so overflowing with talent that the Yankees opted to trade Nestor Cortes to the Brewers and aggressively shopped Marcus Stroman throughout the winter will now be searching for answers as they attempt to patch together the back of their rotation.
The good news for the Yankees is that their rotation is still reasonably well-stocked. Max Fried is a viable ace-in-waiting to pick up the slack from the loss of Cole, while Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodon maintain their spots in the middle of the club’s projected rotation. With Stroman sliding into the back of the rotation after entering camp projected for a possible long relief role, that leaves just one spot in the club’s starting five that will need to be filled for the first few months of the season.
The club has a handful of internal options at its disposal, even with well-regarded prospect Chase Hampton having undergone Tommy John surgery himself last month. The top option on the club’s 40-man roster as things stand is right-hander Will Warren, who made his big league debut last year. That cup of coffee at the big league level did not go over very well, as Warren was shelled to the tune of a 10.32 ERA in 22 2/3 innings of work. That was just a glimpse into Warren’s struggles last year, as he also floundered at the Triple-A level with a 5.91 ERA across 23 starts at the highest level of the minors. With that being said, the 25-year-old has impressed so far this spring with a 1.13 ERA in three appearances. If the Yankees believe the issues that plagued Warren in 2024 are behind him, it’s easy to imagine him being chosen as the fifth starter despite the question marks much like Gil last year.
Warren isn’t the only option the Yankees have at their disposal, however, as a handful of non-roster invitees are in camp with the club at present. Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco is just days away from his 38th birthday and has struggled badly the past two years with a 6.18 ERA in 193 2/3 innings of work for the Mets and Guardians, but his 15 years of MLB experience could offer the club some veteran stability at the back of the rotation even if Carrasco’s overall results are very likely to be well below average. Right-hander Allan Winans and southpaw Brandon Leibrandt are among the club’s other non-roster invitees who could theoretically be called upon.
Another option, of course, would be to look outside the organization for rotation help. That’s surely not the Yankees’ preferred course of action; after all, budget concerns kept them from adding a surefire infielder at second or third base to pair with Jazz Chisholm Jr. this winter, leaving the club to sort through lackluster options like Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and the now-injured DJ LeMahieu at the hot corner. With that being said, former Yankee Jordan Montgomery could surely be acquired from the Diamondbacks for virtually no cost other than eating a portion of the lefty’s salary after his difficult 2024 campaign, while interesting options like Kyle Gibson and Spencer Turnbull remain available in free agency. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of potential external candidates, though many clubs may prefer to hold their potential trade chips until the trade deadline at this stage in the calendar unless overwhelmed by an offer.
Dodgers’ Michael Grove Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
6:20pm: Per Ardaya, Grove underwent surgery to repair his right labrum. Roberts added that Grove attempted to pitch through the issue dating back to last season, but the club opted for surgery after the issue did not respond well to an offseason of rest.
12:58pm: Michael Grove‘s season has already come to an end, as the Dodgers right-hander underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder and will now miss the entire 2025 campaign, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports. Grove’s last 2024 appearance came in Game 2 of the NLDS, and he was removed from the Dodgers’ playoff roster after that game with the first occurrence of this shoulder issue.
Manager Dave Roberts stated two weeks ago that Grove was expected to start the season on the injured list, as recovering from that postseason shoulder problem had cost the righty about a month of his normal winter ramp-up work. It isn’t yet known if Grove was trying to pitch through more discomfort or if a new issue was discovered after testing, but regardless, the 28-year-old will now unfortunately be sidelined until 2026.
This marks the second major surgery of Grove’s baseball career, as he had a Tommy John procedure in 2017 when he was still playing college ball at West Virginia. The Dodgers were still intrigued enough by his potential to make Grove a second-round pick in the 2018 draft, though between his injury rehab, the canceled 2020 minor league season, and simply some struggles in his first taste of pro ball, Grove didn’t really start delivering good numbers until 2022.
That same year saw him make his big league debut in the form of 29 1/3 innings of 4.60 ERA work, as Grove started six of his seven games. The right-hander started 12 of 18 MLB appearances in 2023, with Los Angeles cycling Grove up and down from Triple-A multiple times whenever they needed a fresh arm in the rotation or bullpen. Grove was also shuttled back and forth several times last season, though he worked primarily as a reliever and posted a 5.12 ERA over 51 innings.
Grove’s 5.48 ERA over 149 1/3 career Major League innings isn’t very impressive, yet his SIERA is a far more palatable 3.85. With decent strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates, plus several other solid peripherals, Grove’s under-the-hood numbers paint a far better picture of his ability, though he has a penchant for allowing home runs at inopportune times. Injuries also hampered Grove over the last two seasons, as he missed significant chunks of time with groin and lat-related issues, beyond the shoulder injury that took him off the Dodgers’ postseason roster.
Los Angeles overcame an absurd number of pitching injuries to capture last season’s World Series, and it already looks like the Dodgers’ staff will be facing more health issues in 2025. As per RosterResource‘s projections, ten pitchers are set to begin the season on the injured list, with issues ranging from relatively minor injuries to season-ending problems (i.e. Grove’s surgery, or River Ryan and Kyle Hurt probably missing 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgeries last year). This is on top of the several pitchers with checkered injury histories who are expected to be part of the Opening Day roster, such as Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
The Dodgers are so deep in pitching that the team is hoping the sheer volume of available arms can help cover for any more injuries that might arise during the season, and this is also why L.A. was so aggressive in adding Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and others to their depth chart. While Grove isn’t exactly a household name amidst all of the Dodgers’ superstars, losing another innings-eating reliever removes another layer of security from the Dodgers’ plans.
Grayson Rodriguez To Start Season On IL; Andrew Kittredge To Miss Months
TODAY: Rodriguez was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and he received a cortisone shot to deal with the issue, Hyde told reporters (including the Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka). The plan is for Rodriguez to be shut down for 7-10 days to let the shot take effect, and the right-hander will then start a throwing program.
March 8: Kittredge underwent left knee debridement on Friday, the Orioles revealed to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The team described the procedure as “successful.”
March 7: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided members of the media with updates on various injured players today. Most notably, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is going to start the season on the injured list due to some discomfort in his elbow/triceps area, though Hyde emphasized that there’s no concern about the righty’s ligament. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner was among those to relay the info. Additionally, righty Andrew Kittredge is going to have arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss multiple months, per Kostka.
Rodriguez had diminished velocity in his most recent start and later told reporters that he felt “sluggish” and “flat” during the outing. Hyde eventually revealed that Rodriguez was battling some soreness in his triceps. It seems the club is still working on firming up the diagnosis but has enough info to determine that Rodriguez won’t be ready by Opening Day. “It’s not a ligament issue, so we’re not concerned about that,” Hyde said, per Kostka. “But it’s going to result in some missed time. … Right now, we’re still getting opinions.”
Time will tell about the long-term picture, but the O’s will have to make a rotation pivot in the short term. Without Rodriguez, four rotation spots will be taken by Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Hyde said today that the final rotation spot will likely come down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich, per Kostka.
Suárez, 35, spent the 2019 to 2023 seasons pitching in Asia. He returned to affiliated ball with the O’s last year and had good results in a swing role. He made 24 starts and eight relief appearances, tossing 133 2/3 innings with a 3.70 earned run average. He only struck out 19.1% of batters faced but limited walks to a 7.6% clip. He projected to be in a long relief role to start the year. If he jumps into the rotation, perhaps Roansy Contreras will take over as the long man since the O’s are stretching him out.
Povich, 25 in April, was a top 100 prospect going into 2024 but didn’t excel in his first taste of the majors. He made 16 starts last year with a 5.20 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. But his minor league numbers were better, as he logged 77 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He still has options and could be in the Triple-A rotation if not in the majors.
Ideally, one of those arms will cover the rotation spot for a few turns while Rodriguez gets healthy. Though if it’s eventually determined that he’s facing a longer absence, perhaps the club will look for external help. The free agent market still features Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull and others. Pitchers such as Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker are likely available on the trade block.
As for Kittredge, it’s an unfortunate blow since the O’s made a notable investment in him less than two months ago. In mid-January, Baltimore signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM deal, hoping to have him take up a key role in the club’s bullpen. But he recently experienced some soreness in his left knee and was sent for some testing, which revealed the need for this operation.
This isn’t the first time an injury has intervened in the righty’s career. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2021 but then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his next two seasons. He stayed healthy last year after being traded to the Cardinals and tossed 70 2/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate. That spurred the O’s to give him an eight-figure deal but it now appears it will take several months for them to receive any kind of return on that investment.
Without Kittredge, the O’s still have many strong relief options, including Félix Bautista, Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. If the Kittredge injury sends them looking for external options, guys like David Robertson, Phil Maton and Joe Kelly are unsigned.
As for shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who is dealing with an intercostal strain, Hyde said he is still getting treatment. Per Jake Rill of MLB.com, Hyde said Jackson Holliday will be getting some shortstop reps and possibly Jordan Westburg as well, with the O’s looking to build contingency plans for the event Henderson misses time. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball adds that Liván Soto and Luis Vázquez are also possibilities.
Both Holliday and Westburg played lots of shortstop in the minors and should be relatively fine in moving over there to cover for a bit, though they would create holes elsewhere. Holliday projects as the regular second baseman and Westburg the third baseman. Coby Mayo or Ramón Urías could perhaps cover third if Westburg is at short, though it sounds like Hyde might have a slight preference for Holliday, which would create a hole at the keystone. Urías has lots of second base experience, but roughly a quarter of the time he’s spent at third.
As for Soto and Vázquez, neither is on the 40-man roster at present. They both have plenty of minor league experience at second, third and short but they have played just 46 major league games between the two of them.