Qualifying Offers To Be Worth $15.3MM This Offseason
Teams wishing to make one-year qualifying players to pending free agents will have to be willing to pay them $15.3MM, the Associated Press reports (via Sportsnet.ca; h/t to Ben Nicholson-Smith). That represents an 8.5% increase over least year’s $14.1MM price tag.
The qualifying offer value is arrived at by averaging the salaries of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. Teams may extend qualifying offers to eligible free agents-to-be within five days after the end of the World Series. Players have seven days to weigh the offer. When a player rejects the offer, his former team becomes eligible to receive an additional “sandwich” round pick in the next amateur draft, while a new signing team must forfeit their highest non-protected pick. (No draft pick movement occurs if a player re-signs with his original team.)
In order for a player to be eligible to receive a qualifying offer, the CBA states that he must have spent the entire regular season on that team’s roster. For example, Brandon McCarthy is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after beginning the season with the Diamondbacks and being traded to the Yankees. Click here for more details on how the qualifying offer system works.
Every player made a qualifying offer to date has declined it. In the 2012-13 offseason, the first year that the QO system was in effect, nine players were made a qualifying offer and seven ultimately signed with different clubs. Last year, thirteen players turned down qualifying offers and ten went to new clubs in free agency.
As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained before the 2013 season, avoiding the qualifying offer can have a major impact on a free agent’s earning capacity. That became all the more clear during the latest round of free agency, when both Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales declined qualifying offers but were unable to find multi-year offers to their liking. The pair of veterans ultimately waited months into the season before signing, settling for one-year deals before struggling badly over the rest of the year.
Free Agent Profile: David Robertson
Though he’s spent much of his career in the shadow of perhaps the greatest closer of all time, Mariano Rivera, Yankees right-hander David Robertson stepped onto the ninth-inning stage this season and excelled. The strong effort continued a four-year run of dominance that has positioned the former 17th-round pick quite well as he hits free agency for the first time.
Strengths/Pros
In today’s game, strikeouts are king for pitchers, and Robertson excels in that department. Though he’s not overpowering — he’s averaged 92 mph on his heater in his career — Robertson racks up strikeouts at a prolific rate in part because he releases the ball closer to home plate than most pitchers, causing his fastball to appear quicker (a trait which SI.com’s Tom Verducci examined in a 2011 article). He averaged 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season and has punched out 12.0 per nine in his carer, including 12.3 per nine over the past four seasons.
Those four seasons are where Robertson truly began to establish himself as one of the game’s elite relievers. From 2011-14, Robertson owns a 2.20 ERA with a 354-to-95 K/BB ratio in 258 innings of work. His 46.7 percent ground-ball rate in that time has been slightly above-average, and he’s shaken the command problems that he showed early in his career. He walked nearly five batters per nine innings from 2008-11, but since that time he’s averaged just 2.8 BB/9.
A look at the rest of the closer market reveals quite a few older options, but Robertson will turn 30 next April, giving a signing team control of some prime-aged seasons. The next-youngest competition is Sergio Romo (32), who is coming off a down season in which he lost his hold on the ninth inning. In fact, a large number of Robertson’s competitors on the open market lost their jobs this year, but he can point to the fact that his grip remained iron-clad on the ninth inning this season.
Robertson has thrived in a big-market setting and in a hitter-friendly ballpark/division, so there’s little reason to worry about inserting him into any setting. While his time spent behind Rivera could be seen by some as a means of pointing out his lack of experience as a true closer, the argument can also be made that there’s no one better to have served as a tutor/mentor for Robertson throughout the first six seasons of his career.
Weaknesses/Cons
Were Robertson on a different team, a qualifying offer of $15MM+ might not even be a consideration. Few clubs are comfortable paying relievers so extravagantly in this market, but the Yankees can certainly afford to. ESPN’s Buster Olney has written (subscription required) that it’s a virtual lock for Robertson to receive a QO, and as such, a signing team will have to forfeit its top unprotected pick in order to secure Robertson’s services. It’s nearly certain that no other reliever will come with this distinction.
Some may be surprised to learn that Robertson comes with somewhat of a platoon split — particularly because that split is of the reverse variety. While Robertson has completely flummoxed left-handed batters throughout his career and particularly in the past four seasons (.173/.254/.236), right-handed hitters have batted .230/.305/.373 against him dating back to 2011. Granted, that’s still not a particularly impressive batting line, but it’s closer to league-average production than one might think based on his otherwise elite stats.
Robertson dealt with what appears to have been a mild groin injury earlier this season. He required a trip to the disabled list — just the second of his career — though he only required the minimum 15-day stay and appeared healthy following that episode.
Personal
Laid back and reserved in nature, Robertson enjoys hunting and fishing in his free time. He also takes a great amount of pride in doing charity work for the community — a trait that is evident in looking at his High Socks for Hope charity. Robertson, an Alabama native, founded the nonprofit organization with his wife, Erin, after tornadoes ravaged his hometown Tuscaloosa area back in 2011. The charity seeks to benefit those whose lives have been impacted by tornadoes, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
Since founding the charity, Robertson has pledged to donate $100 for each strikeout he records, and he also pledged $200 for every save that he recorded in 2014. He’s been recognized with awards from Habitat for Humanity and has also been nominated for the Branch Rickey Award for community service in each of the past four seasons.
Market
We’ve seen in the past that it typically behooves relievers to sign early in the offseason rather than to wait for the market to develop. The best hope for Robertson is for a team to make an aggressive push early in the offseason after deciding that he’s “their guy” and making a strong offer. This method worked for Joe Nathan and Joaquin Benoit with the Tigers, and we saw Jonathan Papelbon take a similar route when he signed in Philadelphia. On rare occasion, relievers that wait (i.e. Rafael Soriano) have been paid handsomely, but typically the market is strongest early on.
Not many teams are forking over major dollars to relief pitchers these days, but some clubs might be willing to make an exception for a pitcher that has been worth 8 fWAR and 9.3 rWAR dating back to 2011. The Yankees, who will likely make a QO, will of course be involved. However, they have a ready-made replacement candidate in the form of Dellin Betances and do have other areas that need attention.
The Dodgers can never be ruled out on big-name free agents, although Kenley Jansen is currently entrenched as their ninth-inning man. The Tigers yet again endured bullpen struggles, but after watching their big-money investment in Joe Nathan go south, would they decide that the best solution is to throw even more money at the ninth inning? The White Sox don’t have a firm solution in the ninth, and they’re set at a number of positions with affordable contracts, but GM Rick Hahn recently downplayed the idea of spending heavily on the ninth inning. The Angels figure to be set with Huston Street and a repeatedly stated desire to stay under baseball’s luxury tax threshold. The Rangers have deep pockets and a weakened bullpen as well. Another logical landing spot could be the Nationals, who are set at many positions around the diamond and already have a strong rotation.
Expected Contract
Robertson has been nothing short of dominant, and in spite of the QO that’s likely to be attached to his name, I imagine that the goal for his camp will be to top Papelbon’s four-year, $50MM guarantee.
Given the fact that Robertson is the best player at his position in a free agent market that is thin on bats and features a number of talented but risky starters, a team may view Robertson as more of a sure thing than the rest of the market. A club looking to spend to improve but unwilling to take on the risk of an injury-prone starter or overpay for one of the few reliable bats may instead prefer to allocate its funds to shortening the game via a dynamic bullpen addition. It’s that line of thinking that leads me to believe it is indeed possible for Robertson to top Papelbon’s deal.
Aiming to set a new precedent is bold, but if there’s been a free agent reliever in recent history who can stake a legitimate claim to being able to do so, it’s Robertson. Based on his combination of age, strikeouts, command, ground-balls and success in a major market and hitter-friendly division, I’m predicting a four-year, $52MM contract for Robertson when all is said and done.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs enter the 2014-15 offseason with the highest expectations since Theo Epstein took over as club president in October 2011. Starting pitching should be the team’s main focus this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Starlin Castro, SS: $44MM through 2019
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $37MM through 2019
- Edwin Jackson, SP: $22MM through 2016
- Jorge Soler, RF: $20MM through 2020 (may opt for arbitration once eligible)
- Ryan Sweeney, OF: $2MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- John Baker, C (5.141): $1.1MM projected salary
- Wesley Wright, RP (5.105): $2MM
- James McDonald, SP (5.074): $1MM
- Chris Coghlan, LF (4.148): $1.4MM
- Luis Valbuena, 3B (4.148): $3.1MM
- Justin Ruggiano, RF (4.019): $2.5MM
- Travis Wood, SP (4.004): $5.5MM
- Pedro Strop, RP (3.156): $2.4MM
- Jake Arrieta, SP (3.145): $4.1MM
- Felix Doubront, SP (3.120): $1.3MM
- Welington Castillo, C (3.009): $2.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Baker, McDonald, Wood
Contract Options
- Kyuji Fujikawa, RP: $5.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
- Tsuyoshi Wada, SP: $5MM club option (no buyout)
- Jacob Turner, SP: $1MM club option (no buyout)
Free Agents
For a last-place team that finished 16 games under .500, the 2014 Cubs had several positive developments. 25-year-old Anthony Rizzo emerged as one of the best first basemen in baseball. 24-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro bounced back to his 2011-12 form. 22-year-old right fielder Jorge Soler battled hamstring injuries but still tore through Double and Triple-A and saw his success carry over for a month in the Majors. On the pitching side, Jake Arrieta emerged as a potential ace with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts and Hector Rondon had a successful run as the team’s closer. A lot of building blocks fell into place under new manager Rick Renteria.
In March, I questioned the Cubs’ choices of position players Rizzo and Kris Bryant over power arms Andrew Cashner and Jon Gray. The Rizzo and Bryant choices, plus this summer’s acquisition of Addison Russell and drafting of Kyle Schwarber, suggest president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have implemented a strategy favoring the stability of position players to begin their rebuild. The plan has come up smelling like roses so far, as the team’s collection of young hitters is the envy of baseball.
Rizzo has first base locked down for the Cubs potentially through 2021, on what’s become one of the game’s most team-friendly contracts. Though Luis Valbuena did an admirable job at the hot corner in 2014, third base belongs to Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year Kris Bryant. If the Cubs wait a few weeks into April to select Bryant’s contract, they’ll control him through 2021 as well.
The Cubs’ middle infield logjam represents a good kind of problem. Castro, signed potentially through 2020, was one of the game’s ten best shortstops in 2014 despite missing most of the season’s final month. Powerful 21-year-old Javier Baez made his big league debut in August, playing second base and then switching to shortstop when Castro went down. Baez struggled at his new level, as many prospects do, but has the second base job entering 2015. Then there’s Addison Russell, the key piece in the deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to Oakland. The 20-year-old Russell raked at Double-A and is knocking on the door to the Majors himself.
Valbuena, 28, had his first full season as a regular, posting a solid .249/.341/.435 line while playing third base and a bit at second. If we pencil in Rizzo, Castro, and Bryant at their respective positions for 2015, only second base is available for three players ranging from good (Valbuena) to potential All-Star (Russell and Baez).
Trading Castro, Russell, or Baez this offseason could be jumping the gun, since Baez has yet to succeed at the big league level and Russell has yet to reach Triple-A. A safe plan would be to begin 2015 with a Castro-Baez middle infield, and if Baez hits and Russell is knocking down the door come July, the team can more seriously consider trades at that point or even move someone to the outfield. Trading Valbuena this winter could make sense, though he’d be a good backup plan at second base. The Cubs need a backup plan for Baez, who struck out in 41.5% of his plate appearances as a rookie. Among players with 200 or more plate appearances, that’s easily the worst strikeout rate in baseball history.
Valbuena was one of the ten best offensive third basemen in the game this year and is under control through 2016; a team like the Red Sox could have interest. He could also be marketed as a second baseman, especially since the free agent market is weak at that position.
Soler should have the right field job locked down heading into 2015, but last year’s 86 games marked a career high. We won’t know if Soler’s hamstrings can hold up for 130+ games in the Majors until he does it. Over in left field, former 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan had a resurgent year and should have the job heading into next season. The 2014 Cubs used a host of center fielders, the most interesting of whom is 22-year-old Arismendy Alcantara. A very good prospect in his own right, Alcantara took his first reps at the position this year after previously working as an infielder. As with Baez, Alcantara should get first crack at the 2015 job despite rookie growing pains.
The Cubs’ outfield has enough uncertainty that keeping veterans Sweeney and Ruggiano around makes sense. The team would be justified entering Spring Training with their current outfield pieces, though I’d consider an offseason run at Colby Rasmus on a one-year deal. Rasmus would bring power and upside with no long-term risk, and Alcantara could get further acquainted with center field at Triple-A or be an oft-used super-utility player in the Majors. Another outfielder who could fit is Yasmany Tomas, if the Cubs see star potential in the Cuban free agent, consider him worth a potential $100MM contract, and don’t mind creating something of a long-term surplus in the outfield.
Behind the plate, 27-year-old Welington Castillo played acceptably but saw his batting average and walk rate decline from 2013. The Cubs don’t have to make a long-term decision on Castillo, who is entering arbitration for the first time. The team does have a potential star catcher in the pipeline in 2014 first-rounder Kyle Schwarber, but he needs to prove he can stick at the position. In the spirit of adding position player talent now and worrying about a potential surplus later, the Cubs could make a run at the best free agent catcher, Russell Martin. Signing Martin would signal the Cubs intend to take a leap forward into contention in 2015, though he could require upwards of $50MM as well as the forfeiture of the Cubs’ second-round draft pick.
Epstein whiffed on the biggest expenditure thus far in his Cubs tenure, Edwin Jackson. Jackson now has two years and $22MM left on his contract. According to a late August report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs and Braves engaged in talks in July to swap Jackson and B.J. Upton. That could be revisited, but it’s not the best match since Upton has more than twice as much money remaining on his contract. Other disappointing contracts with between $16-30MM remaining include Cameron Maybin, Chris Johnson, Aaron Hill, Allen Craig, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Beltran. While those players have been letdowns, their teams may not be as close to the breaking point as the Cubs seem to be with Jackson.
Regardless of Jackson, the Cubs will need to explore adding starting pitching from all angles. The 2014-15 free agent class is rife with options for all parts of a rotation. The Big Three are Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields. Lester is the most obvious fit for the Cubs, as a player who joined the Red Sox around the same time Epstein did and was a big part of the executive’s success there. That he isn’t eligible for a qualifying offer is helpful, but Lester’s price tag will probably exceed $150MM. If they prefer the trade market, the Cubs could try to swing a deal for the Phillies’ Cole Hamels, who is owed $96MM through 2018.
One big name starter alone probably wouldn’t be enough to push the Cubs into contention. Arrieta looked like an ace this year, but his 176 2/3 pro innings marked a career-high, and he missed the season’s first month recovering from a shoulder injury. Kyle Hendricks posted a sparkling 2.46 ERA in 80 1/3 innings as a rookie, but his scouting report and lack of strikeouts suggest a back of the rotation starter. Though his ERA bounced around in his three years with the Cubs, Travis Wood profiles at the back end of a rotation as well and could be non-tendered or traded. The other immediate options are projects who once showed potential: Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront, and Dan Straily. If the Cubs want to keep Turner they’ll pick up his $1MM club option, as renewing him would cost at least 80% of his 2014 salary, which comes to more than $1.5MM.
The Cubs would do well to add one or two mid-tier starting pitchers even if they sign one of the Big Three. Wada could be in that mix after a successful 13-start run, though the Cubs would probably want him for less than his $5MM club option. The Cubs will likely set their sights higher and go for Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, or Justin Masterson. Masterson comes with the Epstein connection plus other helpful factors such as the lack of a qualifying offer and a likely short-term deal. Epstein has succeeded in the free agent starting pitcher bargain bin over the years, finding Hammel, Wada, Scott Feldman, and Paul Maholm on the cheap.
The Cubs’ bullpen has talent. Rondon is the incumbent closer, while Justin Grimm, Neil Ramirez, and Pedro Strop also pitched well. The Cubs could cut Wesley Wright loose and pursue a better option from the left side, with Andrew Miller profiling as the top southpaw reliever on the free agent market. Right-hander Kyuji Fujikawa is likely to have his option bought out after missing most of his two-year term with the Cubs due to Tommy John surgery. The 2014 Cubs led the NL in relief innings, and the ten pitchers who tossed 14 or fewer innings apiece accounted for a 6.91 ERA. The nine hurlers who had 21 or more relief innings tallied a cumulative 3.04 mark. Better starting pitching could have a significant trickle-down effect on the bullpen in 2015.
Alfonso Soriano is finally off the books for the Cubs, who owe $25.5MM to five players under contract for 2015. They could spend another $17MM or so on arbitration eligible players, bringing total commitments to around $43MM. What is an appropriate payroll for the 2015 Cubs? It seems they could reasonably sit around the middle of the pack with a $110MM payroll, and they could also roll over unspent money from 2014. A $70MM war chest would be more than enough money to add the players necessary to compete next season.
In the longer-term, the Cubs should raise their payroll to be top five in baseball, befitting of their status as a major market team. Though their short-term television rights are an open question, the Cubs’ potential TV deal for all their games following the 2019 season will be what Epstein called a “paradigm shifter” for club revenue, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Improvements to Wrigley Field, which are now underway, will “move the needle,” according to Epstein. The Cubs have begun their renovation project despite a pending lawsuit between rooftop owners and the city of Chicago regarding the team’s plans to erect signs that will affect the rooftop view.
Regular season winning percentages in the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer Cubs era have increased from .377 to .407 to .451. Though he could sign an extension, Epstein only has two years left on his contract. Aggressive acquisition of starting pitching this offseason should mark the end of his three-year rebuilding plan.
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox got an early start on their rebuilding for 2015, and their offseason efforts will focus on sorting through their outfield surplus and adding arms to both the rotation and the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $96.5MM through 2021
- Rusney Castillo, OF: $67MM through 2020 (Castillo can opt out after 2019 season)
- Allen Craig, OF/1B: $25.5MM through 2017 ($13MM club option for 2018)
- David Ortiz, 1B: $16MM through 2015 (club/vesting options for 2016 and 2017 worth at least $10MM)
- Mike Napoli, 1B: $16MM through 2015
- Shane Victorino, OF: $13MM through 2015
- Clay Buchholz, RHP: $12MM through 2015 ($13MM club option for 2016; $13.5MM club option for 2017)
- Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $10.5MM through 2015
- Edward Mujica, RHP: $4.75MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Junichi Tazawa, RHP (4.086): $2MM
- Daniel Nava, OF/1B (3.044): $1.9MM
- Jonathan Herrera, 2B/3B (4.100): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Herrera
Contract Options
- Craig Breslow, LHP: $4MM club option with $100K buyout
Free Agents
Other Payroll Obligations
- $3.9MM to Dodgers, as part of nine-player trade in August 2012
With a sub-.500 record and virtually no hope of a late-season run, the Red Sox decided to become July deadline sellers. Most teams usually trade established players for prospects at the deadline, and the Sox didn’t shy away from this strategy themselves, adding young arms Edwin Escobar, Heath Hembree and Eduardo Rodriguez in separate deals for Jake Peavy and Andrew Miller, respectively. Boston’s biggest moves, however, saw the team pick up pieces who can help them in 2015 — Yoenis Cespedes came from Oakland in exchange for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes, while the deal of John Lackey to St. Louis brought back Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. It was a nice return on two pending free agents (Lester and Peavy) and Lackey, who was contracted through 2015.
Kelly, who is controllable through the 2018 season, pitched decently in 10 starts after the trade and will join Clay Buchholz as the only locks for the 2015 rotation. The Sox will hope that at least one of their young starters (Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman or Anthony Ranaudo) can win a rotation spot and provide solid innings next year, though given how this quartet struggled last season, Boston isn’t counting on anything. Other prospects like Rodriguez, Henry Owens or Matt Barnes could be in the mix as well with a big Spring Training.
It remains to be seen if the Red Sox will pursue two new starters to fill the other two rotation spots, or if they’ll rely on internal options for one spot and then go for an ace. It seems likely the Sox will bid on Kenta Maeda if the Japanese right-hander is posted, so he could account for one slot. If the Red Sox look for a more proven ace, the biggest names on the free agent market are Max Scherzer, James Shields and ex-Boston playoff hero Lester; all will command big salaries, but team chairman Tom Werner recently said that the Sox are more than able to spend this offseason.
It still seems remarkable that Lester and the Sox couldn’t negotiate an extension, given that both sides were eager to work something out and Lester even indicated last January that he’d be open to taking a discount to remain in Boston. He didn’t quite mean a discount in the form of a four-year, $70MM contract akin to the initial offer made the Sox during offseason negotiations, and it seems talks never quite recovered from that below-market offer. It’s very possible that $70MM won’t even end up being half of what Lester receives in free agency.
While Lester could still re-sign with the Red Sox, it’s almost unheard of for a top-tier free agent to be dealt by his team at midseason and then rejoin them in the offseason. Second of all, Boston’s uneasiness about guaranteeing long-term deals to pitchers in their 30s informed their initial offer to Lester in the first place, so it would be odd to see them reverse course now that they’re competing against others for Lester’s services.
One possible alternative could be Shields, who will be 33 years old on Opening Day (two years older than Lester) but more of a fit for the Sox since he could be open to a four-year deal, whereas Lester would want a six- or seven-year commitment. The Red Sox have been scouting Shields already and seem like one of many teams who will be in the mix for “Big Game James.” With a top-ten (seventh overall) protected pick in the 2015 draft, Boston will be free to pursue qualifying offer free agents while still hanging onto their first-rounder. (They would still, of course, need to forfeit their second-round selection.)
There’s also the possibility that the Sox could trade for an ace and move some of their prospect depth. The Red Sox still have one of baseball’s most well-regarded farm systems, though the club will be a lot more careful about giving their prospects everyday roles in 2015. Boston went into last season counting on Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley and Will Middlebrooks to step up as lineup regulars, and yet all three badly struggled at the plate, with Bradley and Middlebrooks losing their everyday jobs by season’s end.
Middlebrooks in particular could be on the outs given that he declined to play winter ball, leading to some “disappointment” within the organization according to team president Larry Lucchino. Whether Middlebrooks stays or goes, the Sox will be looking for a left-handed hitting third baseman (as Lucchino noted), and Brock Holt could be an internal fit, though he’s a middle infielder by trade. The team could afford to use the versatile Holt mostly at third (or in a platoon with Middlebrooks) as Mookie Betts could take over the utility role.
For external options, a top-tier free agent third baseman like Pablo Sandoval would be a huge upgrade, or the Sox could pursue a trade for someone like the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez, as the Boston Herald’s John Tomase recently speculated. I’d also toss the Cubs’ Luis Valbuena into the mix as a trade candidate; Valbuena is coming off a quietly impressive season and has two years of control left, though he doesn’t have a long-term spot in Chicago thanks to all of the Cubs’ blue chip infield prospects.
Boston will be looking for left-handed bats in general, as improved lineup balance is a stated winter goal of GM Ben Cherington. David Ortiz is the only left-handed hitter in an everyday role for the projected 2015 lineup, as Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez and all the outfielders (save Bradley and switch-hitting Daniel Nava) swing from the right side. A new lefty bat could be slotted at third base, or in a platoon with Vazquez, or the Sox could explore trading two of their right-handed hitting outfielders for one left-handed hitting outfielder.
However it breaks down, the Sox certainly have to do something to finalize their outfield alignment. The only outfielder seemingly guaranteed of a starting job next season is the one with the least Major League experience; Rusney Castillo posted an impressive .928 OPS in 40 PA in September, and Boston certainly expects him to see regular work given his seven-year, $72.5MM contract. Castillo’s best position is center field, however, so now Betts could be blocked in both center field and by Pedroia at his natural position of second base. There’s also Bradley, who entered the year as one of the game’s top prospects and delivered Glove Glove-caliber defense in center, despite looking completely overmatched swinging the bat.
With Castillo, Betts and Bradley in center, Cespedes and Nava in left, and Craig and Shane Victorino in right, at least one move is sorely needed to clear some room. The other issue is that several of these players could be hard to trade since they’re coming off down years — Bradley, Nava and Craig all struggled while Victorino spent most of the season on the DL. While Cespedes seems to be a great fit for Fenway Park, he isn’t yet sure if he wants to sign an extension in Boston, which could make him a trade candidate to be moved for pitching.
This is just my speculation, but Cincinnati and Philadelphia stand out as teams that could be natural trade partners for the Red Sox this winter. The Reds have a hole in left field and seem destined to trade at least one of four starting pitchers entering their walk years. Johnny Cueto or Mat Latos would provide a nice front-of-the-rotation boost for the Sox, though it’ll take more than prospects to acquire either pitcher (especially Cueto) since the Reds plan to contend in 2015. Cincinnati could ask for an experienced, controllable youngster like Bogaerts or Betts in any negotiation, along with perhaps another MLB-ready piece like Nava (who has the on-base skills that the Reds are looking for — at least against right-handers) and/or a young pitcher.
The Phillies, meanwhile, would go in the opposite direction and ask for multiple top prospects in exchange for Cole Hamels as they attempt to rebuild their farm system. Boston has the financial resources to pay the $96MM owed to Hamels through 2018 and they’d only be committed to Hamels through his age-34 season. It might take both fully absorbing Hamels’ contract and giving up a heavy prospect load to convince the Phils to make a trade, however, so the Sox might prefer to just spend on a free agent ace and keep their minor leaguers.
The bullpen also stands out as an area of great uncertainty for the Red Sox, starting with Koji Uehara‘s free agency. Up until mid-August, Uehara was pitching so well that there was talk of extending him a qualifying offer (a one-year deal in the $15MM range), yet those discussions vanished after Uehara posted an 11.74 ERA over his final 7 2/3 IP of the season. This doesn’t suddenly mean Uehara is finished, of course, as some regression was probably inevitable given the otherworldly numbers he posted in 2013 and in the first three-quarters of the 2014 season. The Sox still have an interest in re-signing Uehara, and it’ll be intriguing to see how his market develops as teams weigh his late struggles and age against his pre-August superstar numbers.
As for the rest of the bullpen, it’s possible the young starters that don’t make the rotation could be used in relief roles, which would shorten Boston’s offseason shopping list. Manager John Farrell would like to see free agent Burke Badenhop return, while Craig Breslow‘s $4MM team option seems likely to be bought out given his struggles in 2014. Veterans Junichi Tazawa and Edward Mujica are still in the fold and rookie knuckleballer Steven Wright pitched well in limited action. I’d expect the Red Sox to add at least one more experienced relief arm to the mix. If Uehara departs, that experienced arm could well be a closer, either in a trade or as a free agent signing.
Miller has openly discussed how much he and his wife enjoyed their time in Boston, so it’s quite possible the Red Sox could look to bring back the southpaw. His terrific season is only raising his price tag, though, and Boston may not want to pay the rumored rate of three years/$21MM for a setup man, even as one as dominant as Miller. One potential solution could be for the Sox to sign Miller and then use him as a closer; while he’s never served as a ninth-inning man before, Miller has the classic high-strikeout rate and power arm that traditionally fits the closer mold.
The 2012-14 Red Sox became the first franchise to ever go from last place to a World Series championship to last again over a three-season stretch. It’s been quite a roller coaster stretch for Boston fans, though they can take heart in the fact that recent history has shown their team could be back in contention very quickly. Cherington and company have a lot of work to do this winter in sorting through both the young and veteran options on the roster, but with at least $50MM (hat tip to WEEI.com’s Alex Speier) in available payroll space to work with this offseason, the Sox are willing to spend to enable another quick rise up the AL East standings.
Rangers Outright J.P. Arencibia, Kevin Kouzmanoff
The Rangers announced today that they have outrighted catcher J.P. Arencibia, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, infielder Guilder Rodriguez, outfielder Engel Beltre, right-hander Wilmer Font and left-hander Pedro Figueroa off the 40-man roster to Triple-A Round Rock. Both Kouzmanoff and Arencibia are eligible to become free agents, and will likely do just that. The moves drop the Rangers’ 40-man roster to 37, as three of the players (Beltre, Kouzmanoff and Figueroa) all had to be activated from the 60-day DL in order to be outrighted.
Arencibia, previously of Blue Jays fame, hit .177/.239/.369 in 222 plate appearances for Texas this year, appearing at both catcher and first base. His .196/.263/.427 batting line following a recall from the minors and a shift to first base was an improvement over his numbers while serving as a catcher, but his 28 percent strikeout clip this past season was still troubling.
Kouzmanoff was outstanding in 13 games for Texas before hitting the 60-day DL due to a back injury that required surgery. The former Padre/Athletic hit .362/.412/.617 with a pair of homers in 51 trips to the plate as he filled in for a then-injured Adrian Beltre.
Beltre spent the entire season on the DL as he recovered from surgery on each of his legs, and Figueroa saw just 10 games of action before going down to Tommy John surgery. Rodriguez was a feel-good story that made his big league debut and collected two hits after 13 seasons in the minors. Font didn’t pitch in the Majors this season and underwent elbow surgery in August before being designated for assignment last week when the team claimed Alfredo Figaro from the Brewers.
Cubs Claim Joseph Ortiz
The Cubs announced that they have claimed left-hander Joseph Ortiz off waivers from the Rangers.
The 24-year-old Ortiz missed much of the 2014 season after he was struck by a motorcycle this offseason in his native Venezuela, as Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News wrote back in January. Ortiz missed upwards of three months this season due to a broken foot suffered in that accident and spent the remainder of the season in the minor leagues. He totaled just 18 innings between the team’s Rookie-league affiliate and Double-A, pitching to a 4.00 ERA with nine strikeouts against two walks.
Ortiz made his big league debut for the Rangers in 2013 at the age of 22 and fared well given his young age. He compiled a 4.23 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 39.5 percent ground-ball rate in 44 2/3 innings out of the team’s bullpen. Ortiz ranked 30th among Rangers prospects heading into that 2013 season, according to Baseball America, who noted that his breaking ball made him a candidate to hold down a spot in a Major League bullpen.
Free Agent Profile: Brandon McCarthy
After signing a two-year, $15.5MM contract prior to the 2013 season, Brandon McCarthy struggled with the Diamondbacks before experiencing a tremendous turnaround following a trade to the Yankees. He’ll hit the open market this season in a strong crop of free agent pitchers as he looks to cash in on his big second half.
Strengths/Pros
McCarthy’s past two seasons don’t look great on the whole, but there were plenty of indicators that his ERA with the D’Backs, particularly this year, was in part due to poor luck. He was racking up strikeouts at the highest rate of his career with an elite ground-ball rate and a 1.6 BB/9 mark prior to his trade — all signs that led the Yankees to acquire him in exchange for Vidal Nuno. The rest of the season was a 180-degree turn for McCarthy, whose 5.01 ERA with Arizona feels like a distant memory after he posted a 2.89 mark with the Yankees.
McCarthy finished this season with a 5.3 K/BB ratio — tops among free agent starters — and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate, both indicators that future success could be on the horizon. This season also marked the healthiest year of his career, as he made a career-high 32 starts and totaled a career-high 200 innings. His diminished performance in Arizona takes some shine off his recent numbers, but over the past four years McCarthy has a cumulative 3.81 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. FIP (3.44), xFIP (3.43) and SIERA (3.60) all feel he’s been better than that ERA would indicate.
McCarthy posted the best peripherals of his career this season in part because his fastball averaged a career-high 92.9 mph. That led to the best swinging-strike rate he’s posted (8.8 percent on the season; 9.4 percent with the Yankees) since working as a reliever for the White Sox in 2006. Hitters have never chased out-of-zone pitches from McCarthy as often as they did in 2014, and they made less contact (82.3%) against him this season than they have since that 2006 campaign. That his greatest success came in on a contending team in a large market in the AL East will carry some weight with interested teams.
At 31 years of age, McCarthy isn’t necessarily a young free agent, but he’s younger than many of the pitchers in the second tier of this year’s market, including Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel. He’s also ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded midseason, something that fellow 31-year-old free agent Francisco Liriano cannot say. A combination of relative youth, strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, increased velocity and no qualifying offer are strong points in his favor.
Weaknesses/Cons
Despite all of the things working in McCarthy’s favor, there’s simply no getting around the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of durability. While one of his most recent injuries — a terrifying head injury suffered in 2012 when struck by a line drive — was clearly a freak accident, McCarthy has had multiple stress fractures in his throwing shoulder in the past. He’s landed on the DL for a shoulder problem five times in his career (including once in 2013), and he also missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a forearm injury. McCarthy has only topped 170 innings twice — in 2011 and in 2014.
McCarthy’s agent, Ryan Ware of LSW Baseball, will also have to explain his client’s sub-par ERA with the D’Backs to interested parties this offseason. For as excellent as he was with the Yankees, McCarthy turned in 224 2/3 innings of 4.75 ERA ball with Arizona prior to his turnaround. Can 90 innings with New York erase concerns over that performance? Ware can point out that there was some poor luck involved, which is true, but McCarthy has a history of posting low strand rates in his career. His overall mark of 71 percent is slightly below average, but he’s turned in four seasons with a strand rate south of 69 percent as a starter — something that does lead to a discrepancy between ERA and FIP. He hasn’t been a strikeout pitcher in previous seasons either, though that may no longer be the case if he can maintain his newfound velocity.
Personal
McCarthy is seen as a student of the game and is considered one of the most intelligent minds in baseball. As noted by Eddie Matz of ESPN The Magazine last year, McCarthy home-schooled himself in sabermetric principles and used his findings to reinvent himself as a pitcher in 2009 — adjusting his pitch repertoire and changing his gameplan on the mound.
Matz writes that McCarthy is an avid reader and has an extensive vocabulary that he regularly drops into everyday conversation. He’s very active on Twitter — a trait that has endeared him to many fans — and is said to be known for a dry sense of humor.
Market
It’s not hard to envision half the teams in the league (or more) showing interest in McCarthy. The lack of draft pick forfeiture attached to his name and the fact that he will command lesser money than top arms Max Scherzer, James Shields and Jon Lester is undoubtedly attractive.
Contending teams in need of immediate rotation help and non-contending clubs alike will show interest. The Yankees could certainly use McCarthy back, and I wonder if his turnaround in the Bronx gives them a bit of an inside track in landing him this offseason. Other teams that could be in need of arms will include (but certainly aren’t limited to) the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Giants, Marlins, Phillies, Pirates, Braves and Astros.
McCarthy has said he’d be open to returning to the Yankees, and he also noted that he’d be willing to sign early in the offseason if an offer to his liking came along. Oftentimes, signing early is a good move for free agents — particularly those that are below the top tier of the free agent class.
Expected Contract
Though his two-year platform heading into free agency is weaker than his previous two-year platform from an ERA standpoint, McCarthy’s entering free agency without the specter of a career-threatening head injury hanging over him as he did in the 2012-13 offseason. The market for pitching has only grown since that time, and as such, McCarthy should exceed his previous contract with ease.
Given his turnaround, strong peripherals and lack of a qualifying offer, I think a three-year deal is attainable for McCarthy. I’d expect that many teams will be comfortable pushing to three years in order to land him, and it’s possible that the first team that blinks and gives him a fourth year, even if it lowers the average annual value of the deal, will end up signing him. While I’m not ruling out the fourth-year scenario, I’m going to predict that McCarthy ends up on a three-year, $36MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nelson Cruz Switches Agents
Nelson Cruz has switched agencies and is now represented by Diego Bentz of Relativity Sports, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). Cruz had previously been represented by WMG’s Adam Katz.
Though Cruz and the Orioles are on their way to the ALCS, the 34-year-old slugger is clearly preparing himself for free agency this winter. Cruz received only a one-year, $8MM deal from Baltimore on the open market last offseason as his value was depressed by a PED suspension, his age and the first-round draft pick compensation tied to him via the qualifying offer. After hitting 40 homers with a .859 OPS in 2014, however, Cruz looks in good shape to score a multiyear deal even though the O’s will surely tag him with the qualifying offer.
Relativity’s list of baseball clients includes such major names as David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Andrelton Simmons, Jordan Zimmermann, Julio Teheran, Paul Goldschmidt, Madison Bumgarner and Jhonny Peralta. As ESPN’s Enrique Rojas tweets (in Spanish), Peralta received a four-year, $53MM deal from the Cardinals last winter despite his own ties to the Biogenesis scandal, though Peralta didn’t have draft pick compensation hanging over him.
For more on who represents who around the baseball world, check out the MLBTR Agency Database.
Free Agent Profile: Francisco Rodriguez
Francisco Rodriguez is a late-inning fixture, having recorded at least two and as many as 62 saves every season since 2003, though he has had a somewhat odd run of late on the transactional side.
After earning big arbitration and free agent dollars, the star closer made the somewhat surprising decision to accept arbitration from the Brewers after the 2011 season rather than taking free agency (under the old Type A/Type B system). But an off 2012 season — 72 innings of 4.38 ERA ball, with 9.0 K/9 vs. 3.9 BB/9 — forced Rodriguez into a minor league deal. He responded with a bounceback campaign in 2013, throwing 46 2/3 frames and compiling a 2.70 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Nevertheless, perhaps hurt by the fact that he had less success down the stretch after being traded to the contending Orioles, Rodriguez again returned to Milwaukee on a make-good, one-year pact (this one promising him $3.25MM).
The market has seemingly gone from viewing Rodriguez as a premier reliever to treating him like a shell of his former self, an aging closer whose best days are long past. But that is not necessarily true, and K-Rod’s market may be due for some correction this time around.
Strengths/Pros
For one thing, Rodriguez is not nearly as old as his long MLB tenure might suggest. Entering his age-33 season in 2015, Rodriguez is more youthful than closers like Joe Nathan and Fernando Rodney, each of whom landed substantial two-year deals last offseason. And he is younger than some competitors on this year’s market, including Rafael Soriano, Casey Janssen, Jason Grilli, and Koji Uehara.
While Rodriguez may not be “old” by the closer market’s standards, he still has a lot of mileage on his arm. On the other hand, much of the reason for that is his remarkable durability: he has averaged 69 innings pitched per season dating back to 2003. Aside from an infamous off-field injury back in 2010 (and a more comical cactus maiming this spring), Rodriguez has a lengthy track record of health.
One could point to the fact that Rodriguez no longer strikes out batters at an elite clip, and that is no doubt true. But while his strikeout rate is down from his glory days (in particular, against league average), K-Rod has continued to earn his moniker by averaging an even 10.0 K/9 over the last two years. Even better, he has married that with excellent control, answering the primary critique of his earlier-career quality as a pitcher. Put it all together, and Rodriguez has set a personal record for full-season K/BB ratio successively in each of the last two years. (If you prefer K%-BB%, Rodriguez landed at 20.5%, solidly above average and 32nd among all qualified relievers.) A friendly BABIP even enabled him to post a career-low WHIP (.985) this past season.
For what it’s worth, Rodriguez also proved that he can still handle the ninth inning. After jumping unexpectedly into the closer’s role early this year, he logged 44 saves — his largest tally since that 62-save campaign in 2008 — while blowing only five.
Weaknesses/Cons
Rodriguez, unsurprisingly, no longer brings his fastball quite like he did in his youth, and his average velocity now sits at around 91. But he has never averaged above 93 in a full season, and never relied on the kind of pure speed that makes this a major concern. Rodriguez still registers excellent pitch values for his change-up, which, as Nick Ashbourne of Beyond the Box Score noted earlier this year, he has increasingly relied upon in lieu of his curve.
Rodriguez was victimized by the long ball this year, surrendering a career-worst 1.85 HR/9 and rather unsightly 23.3% HR/FB. He also benefited from a high strand-rate (93%) and low BABIP (.216). To some extent those statistics balance out when viewed together, as regression in both directions could be expected.
Personal
A native of Venezuela, Rodriguez first signed with the Angels back in 1998. He was playing in the states by the time he was 17, and reached the big leagues at age 20. Since then, Rodriguez has earned a somewhat fiery reputation, perhaps befitting his late-inning role. But on occasion, his anger has seemingly gotten the better of him. Rodriguez has had a few on-the-field spats that generated headlines. And more worryingly, he has twice been charged for his role in domestic physical altercations. (He pled guilty in the first case, while charges were dropped in the latter.)
Market
Rodriguez faces a lot of competition from veteran, late-inning relievers. As I recently explored, however, he is perhaps the only one who is truly on the upswing as he enters the free agent market. That does not mean that Rodriguez is the cream of the crop, of course – if nothing else, David Robertson and Andrew Miller are much younger and have more dominant recent track records – but it is something of a feather in his cap against most of the rest of the market.
As things have shaken out, he looks to be roughly on the same tier as Uehara, Soriano, and Sergio Romo amongst the next group of arms. (Names like Janssen, Pat Neshek, and Luke Gregerson are, perhaps, one tier behind.) It is possible to craft arguments preferring one of those to the other, and teams and personal circumstances will surely dictate the results, but Rodriguez surely rates much higher than might have been expected at the outset of the season.
The closer market as a whole seems to be somewhat wanting on the demand side: few big-budget contenders are in need of a new ninth-inning man. And on the whole, the rise of young flamethrowers could make teams somewhat hesitant to commit big dollars to relievers. On the other hand, Rodriguez has previously been willing to work in a set-up role. And proven success and durability still carries plenty of currency; he has been a relative rock in both respects.
Though it would be foolhardy to handicap possible landing spots for a sub-elite reliever, suffice to say that plenty of clubs could use an arm like his – though Rodriguez’s combative reputation may lead some decision-makers to take a pass. It is worth noting, too, that Rodriguez’s personal affinity to Milwaukee is strong and well-documented. He turned down MLB offers to take a minor league deal with the team in 2012, waited for and then jumped on the Brewers’ offer last year, and now says that he hopes to return. Of course, whether Milwaukee will pursue him with any vigor — after adding Jonathan Broxton and his hefty salary at the trade deadline — remains to be seen. But if the bidding is close, it seems plausible that K-Rod could take a discount to stay with the Brewers.
Expected Contract
Achieving multiple years has not been a problem for relievers much older than Rodriguez. The overall trajectory of his play and, particularly, his excellent durability make Rodriguez a strong bet to land a two-year deal. A discount (in terms of years or dollars) to stay in Milwaukee remains a plausible outcome, but if he seeks a full market payday, I expect the Scott Boras client to match Rodney’s contract last year and land a two-year, $14MM deal.
Torii Hunter Possibly Considering Retiring
8:45pm: Hunter says he plans to keep playing and would like to return to the Tigers, tweets MLive.com’s James Schmehl.
7:59pm: In the aftermath of the Tigers’ ouster from the playoffs at the hands of the Orioles Sunday, veteran outfielder Torii Hunter said he was strongly considering retiring, according to MLive.com’s Chris Iott (via Twitter). “It’s 100 percent serious, bro. I have been thinking about it a long time,” Hunter said, via a tweet from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.
The 39-year-old Hunter is at the end of his two-year, $26MM deal, so he’ll be a free agent after the season. He said in April that he we would be physically able to play for two or three more seasons. “I’m a man. A man is supposed to work. This is the only thing I know, the only thing I’m supposed to do,” he said at the time.
The longtime Twins and Angels outfielder had a strong season in 2012, batting .313/.365/.451 in his last season in Anaheim, but he’s faded a bit since then. He’s still a well above average hitter, with a line of .286/.319/.446 this season, but his once-brilliant defense has faded to the point that he’s now marginal even in right field.
Hunter won nine straight Gold Gloves between 2001 and 2009. He’s also made five All-Star appearances and has two Silver Slugger awards. He has a career line of .279/.334/.465 with 331 home runs in 18 big-league seasons.