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Shinnosuke Ogasawara Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been officially posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero (X link). That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to negotiate with major league clubs. If no deal is reached in that time, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.

It was reported back in October that the Dragons would make Ogasawara available via the posting system and that has now been rubber-stamped. The 30 MLB clubs can now officially speak to his representatives and see what sort of contract will be necessary to get him to put pen to paper.

While Ogasawara should generate interest, he’s clearly not exciting as Roki Sasaki, who has also been posted for clubs this offseason. However, Ogasawara likely has more earning power than Sasaki due to the binary nature of MLB international signing rules.

Players need to be 25 years old and have six seasons of experience in a foreign professional league in order to be considered “professionals” and have the right to freely negotiate a contract of any size and length. Players who don’t meet those criteria are considered “amateurs” and are therefore subject to the international bonus pool system, where each club gets $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. Sasaki is only 23 years old and will therefore be limited to a minor league deal with a signing bonus of a few million bucks. Ogasawara, on the other hand, is 27 years old and has appeared in parts of 9 NPB seasons. That means he has the freedom to fully assess his earning power and market himself to the highest bidder.

How much interest North American clubs will have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, but not as much as some other pitchers that have recently come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB career,  though striking out just 18.9% of batters faced. For context, MLB average is usually in the 22-23% range these days. He did get his strikeout rate up to 24% in 2022 but it dropped to 20.1% last year and then all the way to 13.6% in 2024.

The lack of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run average over his career and had a 3.12 ERA in the season that just finished, though MLB clubs might wonder if the same pitch-to-contact approach could carry over to North American ball.

Ogasawara is also on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds. That’s actually slightly larger than the 5’10” and 175 pounds listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a total disqualification, but Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters faced in his NPB career.

Though even if Ogasawara is a notch below Imanaga, he could still generate interest. Youth is clearly an attractive quality which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so well, so the fact that Ogasawara just turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The recent downturn in strikeouts is a bit concerning but he also lowered his walk rate to a tiny 3.7% rate in 2024 and the ERA was still good.

It’s difficult to forecast a contract for a player coming from another league like Ogasawara but MLBTR predicted after the start of the offseason that he could land a two-year, $12MM deal. Perhaps he could benefit from the fact that the market for mid-rotation starters has been quite strong so far this winter. Each of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned larger guaranteed than projected in recent weeks, which could perhaps trickle down to Ogasawara.

The lefty and his team will have more than a month to feel out the market and gauge interest. For clubs still looking to add in the rotation but who don’t want to pay for top names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will be part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that still includes Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.

Marlins Release Mike Baumann To Pursue NPB Opportunity

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7:22pm: Baumann is actually headed to Japan. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reports (on X) that the CAA client has agreed to a deal with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.

7:13pm: The Marlins released reliever Mike Baumann, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Miami’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Baumann landed with the Fish on a waiver claim in late August. They were rather incredibly his fifth team of the season. The out-of-options righty bounced around as the last man in the bullpen for each of the Orioles, Mariners, Giants and Angels as well. Baumann didn’t pitch especially well for any of those clubs. He finished the year with a 5.55 earned run average over 58 1/3 innings. His 22% strikeout percentage wasn’t far off the MLB average, but he walked an elevated 10.6% of opponents while giving up plenty of hard contact.

The 29-year-old was a capable middle reliever for the Orioles as recently as 2023. He worked to a 3.76 ERA in a career-high 64 2/3 innings with Baltimore two seasons ago. Assuming he clears release waivers, Baumann will become a free agent. He’s probably looking at minor league deals but won’t have any issue getting a non-roster invite to MLB camp.

As for Miami, the move appears to be related to Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft. The Fish could not have made a selection if they went into the draft with a full 40-man roster. Miami picks third behind the White Sox and Rockies. The Marlins could have a target of their own in mind or try to work out a draft-and-trade with a team that sits lower in the order.

Roki Sasaki Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Kyle Keller Re-Signs With NPB’s Yomiuri Giants

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Right-hander Kyle Keller has re-signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, MLBTR has learned. Keller’s new contract is a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for the 2026 season, though specific financial terms remain unclear.

Keller, 31, was an 18th-round pick by Miami back in 2015 and made his big league debut with the club back in 2019. He ultimately spent three years in the majors with the Marlins, Angels, and Pirates. He struggled through 46 1/3 big league innings during that time with a 5.83 ERA and 7.00 FIP. While he struck out opponents at a decent 22.4% clip, he was held back by an untenable 14.7% walk rate that severely limited his effectiveness at the big league level. Those struggles in the big leagues led Keller to look overseas for his next opportunity, and he eventually signed with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers for the 2022 season.

The right-hander wound up acting as a prominent late-inning arm for the club over his two seasons with them. After dominating the Western League for the Tigers’ affiliate almost immediately, he found himself promoted to the Central League rather quickly and didn’t look back with a 3.31 ERA in 32 2/3 innings of work. Importantly, he showed far better command over his arsenal in NPB play with a fantastic 35.9% strikeout rate against a microscopic 3.9% walk rate during his first year in the Central League. His peripherals weren’t quite as stellar in his second season with the Tigers, as his 23.7% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate were more reminiscent of his time in the big leagues than anything else. That didn’t stop him from posting strong results, however, as he pitched to a 1.71 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work.

Those strong results earned Keller interest both in NPB and from MLB clubs last winter, and he ultimately settled on a third season in NPB as he landed with the Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal last winter. His 2024 season turned out to be the best of his NPB career so far as he dominated with a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings of work while flashing strong peripherals. Keller struck out an excellent 29.5% of opponents for the Giants last year, while his walk rate sat at a more manageable 10.4%. That combination of excellent results and solid peripherals backing the performance up was evidently enough convince the Giants to retain Keller for at least the 2025 season.

Given the recent MLB interest he’s received and his strong season last year, if Keller is able to turn in a similarly strong campaign at age-32 next year it wouldn’t be hard to imagine him exploring a return to stateside ball at some point in the future as other successful big league relievers like Robert Suarez have done in the past.

Roki Sasaki Expected To Be Posted During Winter Meetings

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Roki Sasaki’s official arrival into the free agent market will likely take place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the star right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines on Tuesday.  Once posted, Major League teams have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki, and he’ll return to the Marines for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball season if no deal is reached.

It is seen as a virtual lock that Sasaki will be coming to MLB, given how the 23-year-old is so eager to pitch in the big leagues that he is leaving a fortune on the table by coming to North America so early in his career.  Since Sasaki is an international free agent who is less than 25 years old, he can only be signed using funds from a team’s international bonus pool.

The timing of the posting is noteworthy, as Sasaki’s 45-day negotiating window will stretch beyond January 15 and the opening of the 2025 international signing period.  Since the 2024 period ends on December 15 and teams have already basically spent everything in their budgets, it was widely expected that Sasaki will wait until after January 15 to sign so he could land at least a little more money.  Unofficially, teams have had deals in place with international prospects for years in advance of the 2025 int’l window, yet if necessary, it is expected that some teams will walk away from these under-the-table deals if it means giving their entire 2025 bonus pool over to Sasaki.

However, as Sasaki’s early foray to the big leagues indicates, money is far from his chief motivator.  Pitching in Major League Baseball will help Sasaki on the endorsement front, of course, but the circumstances of his arrival creates one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent years — arguably the most interesting since Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in the 2017-18 offseason, as Ohtani also came to the majors in advance of his age-23 season.

Though the financial playing field is fairly level for all 30 teams to make a play for Sasaki’s services, the big-spending Dodgers have long been seen a favorite to sign the right-hander, to the point that agent Joel Wolfe vehemently denied rumors that Sasaki and the Dodgers had already worked out some kind of unofficial agreement.  There’s obvious appeal for Sasaki in joining a championship team that already has such Japanese stars as Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the roster, though it isn’t known what exactly Sasaki is looking for in a Major League destination (geographic preferences, teams with a pre-existing link to Japanese baseball, smaller or larger markets, etc.).  As such, it is easy to imagine Sasaki ending up with the Padres, Mets, Giants, Cubs, or any of the several other teams already known to have some interest in his services.

The Marines’ own financial return from Sasaki’s posting will be limited, as per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system.  In addition to paying Sasaki, a Major League team will have to pay the Marines an extra fee based on the amount of Sasaki’s contract — 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.  Since Sasaki’s deal is naturally limited by the size of bonus pools, the Marines stand to gain less than $2MM for one of Japan’s top pitchers.

Over 394 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA, 32.73% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate.  His devastating splitter and high-90s (topping 100mph in past seasons) have left NPB batters fooled, most memorably during a perfect game in 2022 that saw Sasaki record 13 straight strikeouts and 19 strikeouts overall.  Sasaki then gained worldwide attention by almost throwing another perfect game in his next start, as he tossed eight perfect innings before being removed due to concerns over his pitch count (102 pitches).

The relative lack of mileage on Sasaki’s arm is both a boon for MLB teams eager to land such a talented pitcher at such a young age, and a bit of a concern about a possible lack of durability.  Sasaki’s 129 1/3 innings in 2022 remains his career high, and his 2024 season was limited to 111 innings due to a torn oblique and some type of injury to his right arm.  That said, these factors have done nothing to limit the hype on Sasaki, and his arrival in Major League Baseball lines up as one of the key stories of the offseason.

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Koyo Aoyagi For MLB Clubs

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced last night that they’ve made right-hander Koyo Aoyagi available to major league teams via the posting system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that MLB has approved the posting, which opens a 45-day window for the pitcher to sign with a big league team.

Aoyagi, who turns 31 next week, seems to project as a depth arm. While he has worked as a starting pitcher for the Tigers, Aoyagi throws from a sidearm slot that’s more commonly found in the bullpen. He’s coming off a pedestrian season which he split almost evenly between the Tigers and their minor league affiliate. Aoyagi made 12 starts at Japan’s top level and pitched 11 times in the minors.

During his work at the highest level, he turned in a 3.69 ERA across 61 innings. His 13% strikeout rate would be nearly 10 percentage points below the MLB average. He showed decent but not exceptional control, walking 7.8% of batters faced. His career track record is a bit more impressive. He owns a 3.08 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage across nine NPB campaigns. This was his second consecutive middling season, though. Aoyagi was tagged for a 4.57 ERA across 100 1/3 innings for the Tigers in 2023.

The 5’11” hurler pitched for Japan at the 2020 Olympics (held in Tokyo a year late as a result of the pandemic). Japan went 5-0 and won the gold medal, though Aoyagi was tagged for five runs in 1 2/3 innings across two appearances. He did not make the nation’s World Baseball Classic roster two years later.

Assuming the posting window officially opened today, Aoyagi will have until January 17 to sign with an MLB team. If he doesn’t find an offer to his liking, he’d remain with the Tigers. Aoyagi’s numbers suggest he could be limited to a minor league deal. If he signs with an MLB team, that club would also owe a release fee to the Hanshin Tigers. The fee is proportional to the size of the contract. In the very likely event that he signs for $25MM or less, the posting fee would be 20% of the guarantee.

Tayron Guerrero Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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The Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have signed right-hander Tayron Guerrero. Per reporter Francys Romero (X link), Guerrero will make a salary of $600K next year.

It’s a bit of a homecoming for Guerrero, 34 in January, as he also pitched for the Marines in 2022. He was in affiliated ball for over a decade prior to that but was only able to throw 106 major league innings. Splitting time between the Padres and Marlins, he posted a 5.77 earned run average from 2016 to 2019.

He wasn’t able to crack the big leagues in 2020 or 2021 so he headed to Japan in 2022 and had a nice season with the Marines. He tossed 46 innings over 49 appearances with a 3.52 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate.

He came back to North America after that showing, signing a minor league deal with the Reds going into 2023. He struggled badly for Triple-A Louisville, with an 11.51 ERA over his 20 appearances, walking more batters than he struck out. He was released in June and then signed with the Diablos Rojos of the Mexican League. A 1.17 ERA over his eight appearances there was apparently enough for him to get a minor league deal with the Angels for the 2024 season.

He made 30 appearances at Triple-A Reno this year, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 5.73 ERA doesn’t look great but his 20.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate were all solid enough, leading to a 3.47 FIP.

If Guerrero stayed in North America, he surely would have been limited to minor league offers and would have had to fight his way to the big leagues. By returning to Japan, he has locked in a notable salary just a bit below next year’s MLB minimum, which will be $760K.

NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Emmanuel Ramirez

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The Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball announced (X link) that they have signed right-hander Emmanuel Ramirez for the 2025 season.  Ramirez hit the open market earlier this month after he was released by the Blue Jays.

2024 marked Ramirez’s twelfth season in pro ball, and the 30-year-old’s long road to the majors finally reached its destination when he appeared in 15 games out of the Marlins’ bullpen.  Ramirez posted a 6.97 ERA in his first 20 2/3 innings of big league work, but with a much more respectable 3.83 SIERA in that small sample size, as he was hampered by an unusually low 54% strand rate.

The righty did allow three homers during his brief time in the majors, and keeping the ball in the park has been a consistent issue for Ramirez since the 2019 season when he was still a member of the Padres farm system.  Ramirez played in San Diego’s organization from 2013-19, and after the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, he has since bounced around for some minor league work with the Braves, Yankees, Marlins, and Blue Jays.  The 2023 campaign saw Ramirez out of affiliated baseball altogether, as he pitched in the Mexican League.

Over 101 career Triple-A innings, Ramirez has a garish 7.22 ERA due in large part to 28 home runs allowed.  He did improve on his career record with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate last season, as Ramirez limited the damage to five home runs in 40 2/3 innings while posting a 3.76 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate.  This was enough for Ramirez to earn his MLB debut, but as part of the Marlins’ ever-churning roster mix, he found himself designated for assignment in September.  Toronto claimed the right-hander on waivers but Ramirez didn’t see any big league action during his brief time with the Jays.

The 30-year-old Ramirez now heads overseas for a new opportunity with the Lions, and potentially a return to starting pitching.  Ramirez has mostly worked as a reliever or swingman throughout his career, but did start 16 of his 17 games in the Mexican League, so he does have some recent rotation experience.

NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Jason Vosler

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The Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball have agreed to a deal with infielder Jason Vosler for the 2025 season, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Vosler elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2024 Major League campaign, which he spent as a member of the Mariners organization.

The majority of Vosler’s time with Seattle was spent at Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .303/.371/.573 and 31 homers over 524 plate appearances for the Rainiers.  Despite these impressive numbers, Vosler didn’t receive much playing time at the MLB level, as he only appeared in 10 games with the Mariners (hitting a much more modest .179/.233/.286 in 30 PA) in late July and early August.  Seattle designated Vosler for assignment in September and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster.

Originally a 16th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2014 draft, Vosler broke into the big leagues with San Francisco in 2021, and his MLB resume consists of 107 total games with the Giants, Reds, and Mariners over the last four seasons.  He had a strong .265/.342/.469 slash line in 111 PA with the Giants in 2022, as the platoon-heavy team gave the left-handed hitting Vosler a lot of looks against right-handed pitching.  That burst of productivity was relatively short-lived, however, and Vosler has hit .207/.274/.395 in 288 PA against Major League pitching on the whole.

Vosler played mostly third base in his two seasons with the Giants and was largely a first baseman in his one year in Cincinnati.  He has also made a handful of appearances at both corner outfield positions and both middle infield positions, and the 2024 season saw Vosler primarily work as a first baseman and right fielder in Tacoma.

It remains to be seen where Vosler will line up for the Dragons, but his versatility gives the NPB team some flexibility in deciding how they’ll utilize the 31-year-old.  Since Vosler would’ve had to settle for another minor league contract with a North American team, the move to Japan will land him more guaranteed money and a new chapter in his 11-year pro career.

Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025

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Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).

That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.

MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.

As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.

Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)

Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.

If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.

While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.

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