Nippon Professional Baseball

Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman held court with the media at this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, headlined by an overview of the plan for newly posted right-hander Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who is now eligible to negotiate with all major league teams.

Because of his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, that means he can only sign a minor league deal and receive a bonus that fits within his team’s league-allotted, hard-capped bonus pool. Had Sasaki waited two years to come to the majors, he’d have been 25 and thus qualified as an amateur, possibly setting him up for a contract rivaling that of countryman and current Dodgers righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325MM).

Asked why Sasaki chose to seek a posting now rather than come to the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he’d been asked that question “by everyone you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Some of it is Japanese culture. Some of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball and, through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. … He does not take anything for granted. It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract. Sometimes, baseball just doesn’t work out. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers suffer. You could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues, since he was in school. He’s grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to [the World Baseball Classic] and was around some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ’this is what I want to do as soon as possible.'”

With regard to what sort of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to even discuss such factors at length, as Sasaki’s primary focus for so long has been on whether he’ll be posted at all. Wolfe noted that some teams have already submitted presentations for Sasaki but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he’s seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been submitted but added that he expects more to file in. Asked how many teams scouted Sasaki this past season in Japan, Wolfe replied that at least half the league had done so.

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams had submitted initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities among which he’ll choose. He’s slated to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing the introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host teams for a first-round of in-person visits at a central location, beginning next week. Additional waves of team visits — perhaps some in the cities of the finalists — will take place down the road, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said he it could possibly be of interest but emphasized that he had not confirmed as much with his client:

“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think there’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him, as a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media — it might be. I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to do it. It might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market, but I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance and discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at multiple points, once doing so unprompted, about the media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a bit unfair” and candidly acknowledging that at times it could have a negative impact on the young right-hander:

“There has been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things. A lot of people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and it was detrimental to his mental state.”

Wolfe also emphasized that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a pure short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”

Sasaki was officially posted for major league teams on Dec. 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiating period for big league clubs. He’ll have to have a contract finalized by Jan. 23. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so it can fall under the purview of the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be a purely financial one, Wolfe specified that MLB wanted to ensure as much of a “level playing field” as possible and ensure that both Sasaki and his former team would get the most beneficial deal possible, which is the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency into next year’s period — when all 30 MLB teams will have more international resources available.

It’ll be a tough pill for the Marines to swallow, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB players’ former teams receive a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter. In Yamamoto’s case, for instance, his former club received a mammoth $54.375MM release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will be signing for a hard-capped bonus that’ll likely come in south of $10MM, the Marines will probably receive a release fee under $2MM.

Sasaki has pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and tallied 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league deal, pursuant to attachment 46 of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, which indicates that any contracts deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the commissioner’s office. Wolfe noted that MLB teams cannot technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension ahead of time at a to-be-determined date.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — likely more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe pushed back on the notion that they’d even be amenable to that. “If he’s really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”

Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Roki Sasaki’s official arrival into the free agent market will likely take place during baseball’s Winter Meetings, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the star right-hander is expected to be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines on Tuesday.  Once posted, Major League teams have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki, and he’ll return to the Marines for the 2025 Nippon Professional Baseball season if no deal is reached.

It is seen as a virtual lock that Sasaki will be coming to MLB, given how the 23-year-old is so eager to pitch in the big leagues that he is leaving a fortune on the table by coming to North America so early in his career.  Since Sasaki is an international free agent who is less than 25 years old, he can only be signed using funds from a team’s international bonus pool.

The timing of the posting is noteworthy, as Sasaki’s 45-day negotiating window will stretch beyond January 15 and the opening of the 2025 international signing period.  Since the 2024 period ends on December 15 and teams have already basically spent everything in their budgets, it was widely expected that Sasaki will wait until after January 15 to sign so he could land at least a little more money.  Unofficially, teams have had deals in place with international prospects for years in advance of the 2025 int’l window, yet if necessary, it is expected that some teams will walk away from these under-the-table deals if it means giving their entire 2025 bonus pool over to Sasaki.

However, as Sasaki’s early foray to the big leagues indicates, money is far from his chief motivator.  Pitching in Major League Baseball will help Sasaki on the endorsement front, of course, but the circumstances of his arrival creates one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent years — arguably the most interesting since Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in the 2017-18 offseason, as Ohtani also came to the majors in advance of his age-23 season.

Though the financial playing field is fairly level for all 30 teams to make a play for Sasaki’s services, the big-spending Dodgers have long been seen a favorite to sign the right-hander, to the point that agent Joel Wolfe vehemently denied rumors that Sasaki and the Dodgers had already worked out some kind of unofficial agreement.  There’s obvious appeal for Sasaki in joining a championship team that already has such Japanese stars as Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the roster, though it isn’t known what exactly Sasaki is looking for in a Major League destination (geographic preferences, teams with a pre-existing link to Japanese baseball, smaller or larger markets, etc.).  As such, it is easy to imagine Sasaki ending up with the Padres, Mets, Giants, Cubs, or any of the several other teams already known to have some interest in his services.

The Marines’ own financial return from Sasaki’s posting will be limited, as per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system.  In addition to paying Sasaki, a Major League team will have to pay the Marines an extra fee based on the amount of Sasaki’s contract — 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.  Since Sasaki’s deal is naturally limited by the size of bonus pools, the Marines stand to gain less than $2MM for one of Japan’s top pitchers.

Over 394 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA, 32.73% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate.  His devastating splitter and high-90s (topping 100mph in past seasons) have left NPB batters fooled, most memorably during a perfect game in 2022 that saw Sasaki record 13 straight strikeouts and 19 strikeouts overall.  Sasaki then gained worldwide attention by almost throwing another perfect game in his next start, as he tossed eight perfect innings before being removed due to concerns over his pitch count (102 pitches).

The relative lack of mileage on Sasaki’s arm is both a boon for MLB teams eager to land such a talented pitcher at such a young age, and a bit of a concern about a possible lack of durability.  Sasaki’s 129 1/3 innings in 2022 remains his career high, and his 2024 season was limited to 111 innings due to a torn oblique and some type of injury to his right arm.  That said, these factors have done nothing to limit the hype on Sasaki, and his arrival in Major League Baseball lines up as one of the key stories of the offseason.