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Reds Notes: Antone, Santillan, Senzel

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Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced last week he’d miss the start of the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain in his forearm. He didn’t provide many more specifics but implied he could be sidelined by the All-Star Break. While that’s potentially still on the table, manager David Bell only indicated today that Antone would be out at least through the end of April (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Antone’s coming off a lost 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the tail end of the ’21 campaign. That was the second such procedure of his career, with injuries conspiring to rob the Reds of arguably their best reliever. Before his surgery, the former fifth-round draftee had pitched 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 32.8% strikeout rate.

Getting him back as quickly as possible will be crucial for a Cincinnati club that didn’t make any MLB additions to its bullpen this offseason. The Reds’ relief corps was a bottom ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential last season. The expected returns of Antone and Lucas Sims from surgery rehabs would’ve reinstalled a pair of high-leverage options. Sims is on track for full spring participation, Bell informed reporters today, but Antone’s loss subtracts one of the highest-upside hurlers from the mix.

Cincinnati might also be without Tony Santillan to start the season, Bell indicated. The 6’3″ righty didn’t pitch in last year’s second half on account of a lower back injury. That apparently carried into his offseason, and Santillan is behind schedule in his throwing program. A former second-round pick and once one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Reds’ system, he’s settled in as a reliever at the MLB level. Santillan came out of the bullpen 21 times last year, allowing 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings.

In more fortunate health news, center fielder Nick Senzel appears to be mostly ready to go for camp. The 27-year-old told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic he feels good and has recovered from offseason toe surgery (Twitter link). While he indicated he might be built up a little more slowly than most players, it seems he’s on track for Opening Day. Senzel still looks the favorite for regular center field reps, though the Reds added a potential alternative with the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians last week. A former second overall pick, Senzel will be looking for a breakout year after hitting .240/.303/.360 through his first 273 MLB games.

Angels Looking To Increase Workload For Top Starters

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Angels manager Phil Nevin spoke with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) about the club’s pitching plans this afternoon. The Halos have run with a six-man rotation for the past few seasons, and while they could adopt that as a loose framework in 2023, Nevin indicated the team wants to put an emphasis on allowing the pitchers at the top of the rotation- including two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani – to get more action on the mound. Rather than adhere to a rigid six-man staff every turn through, Nevin suggested the club would be flexible in deploying their nominal sixth starter as more of a swing option.

Headed into the 2022 season, the club had few surefire starting pitchers beyond Ohtani, as Patrick Sandoval had started just fourteen games in 2021 while the big pitching acquisition for the Halos that offseason was Noah Syndergaard, who was returning to the mound after pitching just two innings since the end of the 2019 season.

Fortunately, the 2022 season saw multiple impressive performances from Angels starters: in addition to Ohtani improving as a pitcher on his 2021 MVP campaign and placing fourth in Cy Young award voting, Sandoval impressed with a 2.91 ERA and 3.09 FIP in a career-high 148 2/3 innings while Reid Detmers showed flashes of the talent that made him the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft. Jose Suarez proved to be a capable back-of-the-rotation starter over twenty starts. The Halos also improved their rotation externally with the addition of Tyler Anderson, a durable starter who broke out with the crosstown Dodgers in 2023 to the tune of a 2.57 ERA and 3.31 FIP across 178 2/3 innings.

With Sandoval having proved himself, Anderson under contract, and both Detmers and Suarez looking ready for a bigger challenge, it makes sense for the Angels to try and lean more on their top five in the rotation, especially if it means getting Ohtani on the mound more often. After years of carefully managing Ohtani’s workload in an attempt to keep him healthy, the Angels have allowed him to play more and more, with less firm restrictions in recent years. Considering a more traditional rotation appears to be the next logical step in that process.

Each of those five starting options appears likely to be a substantial improvement over the starts Anaheim’s internal options for a sixth starter can provide. Following his trade to the Angels last summer as part of the deal that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Braves, lefty Tucker Davidson struggled mightily in eight starts (36 2/3 innings): a ghastly 6.87 ERA and nearly matching 6.30 FIP was good for an ERA+ of just 60, or 40% worse than the league average pitcher.

Blum notes that right-hander Griffin Canning is fully healthy and partook in a normal offseason after missing the entire 2022 season with a back injury, so he could certainly factor into the sixth starter mix as well. That said, despite roughly league average results in his major league career to this point (an ERA+ of 96 in 209 1/3 innings spanning from 2019 to 2021), Canning has never reached 100 innings pitched in the majors and is coming off a long layoff, so it would be no surprise if the Angels planned on managing his workload carefully during his age-27 season.

Overall, given the relative strength of their starting five, the emphasis on letting Ohtani play without restriction in recent years, and the dearth of quality, reliable options for the sixth starter slot, Nevin’s plan to consider a more traditional rotation in 2023 makes sense. A reliable sixth starter would likely have to come externally, and those options are slim following Michael Wacha’s signing with the Padres earlier today.

MLB Plans To Enforce Balk Rules More Strictly In 2023

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ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that MLB’s decision to introduce a pitch clock for the 2023 season will have an as of yet unexpected side effect: stricter enforcement of rules surrounding balks and illegal pitches. In addition, Bob Nightengale of USAToday writes that arguing pitch clock violations will result in an automatic ejection for managers. This decision follows recent decisions to make the “ghost runner” extra innings rule permanent and enforce limits on position players pitching.

This crackdown on illegal pitches is due to the fact that the clock, which allows a pitcher 15 seconds before pitching with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on base, is meant to be stopped at the beginning of a pitcher’s delivery. Passan writes that the league has informed umpires to call a balk (or an illegal pitch resulting in an automatic ball if no one is on base) if a pitcher takes more than one step to the back or side in his windup before moving towards home plate. Certain pitchers have previously used more complicated deliveries involving multiple toe-taps or sidesteps that’ll no longer be permissible.

It’s an increased emphasis that’ll come into play for pitchers working both out of the windup and from the stretch, although a balk call is obviously only relevant if there’s a runner on base. A windup violation with no one on base will lead to an automatic ball. Passan notes the clock stops running for a pitcher who works from the stretch once they lift their front leg.

The league already seemed likely to see an uptick in balks this year thanks to a different rule change: the limitation on pitcher disengagements from the mound. A pitcher is limited to two unsuccessful disengagements (pickoff attempts or simply stepping off the rubber) in an at-bat. If a pitcher steps off a third time and does not record a successful pick-off, the baserunner advances on a balk.

The rules changes will be in effect in Spring Training games, though they’re not implemented for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Any pitchers participating in the WBC will get less time than their peers to adjust and get used to these rule changes than they otherwise would, as the tournament runs during the final month of Spring Training. Pitch clocks have been in effect for years in the minor leagues, however, so a number of MLB pitchers have some experience with those restrictions.

Astros, Framber Valdez Have Yet To Discuss Extension

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There’s been much chatter around the Astros and extensions recently, with Cristian Javier already locked up and the club also interested in deals for players like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve. However, one player who doesn’t seem to be on the verge of signing a lengthy new pact is left-hander Framber Valdez, as his agent Ulises Cabrera tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle that no extension talks have taken place thus far.

“That is 1,000 percent categorically false,” Cabrera said in response to a report that Valdez could sign before Opening Day and was looking for over $150MM. “I haven’t even had a conversation with (general manager Dana Brown) with respect to Framber Valdez. There are no negotiations. Whatever conversations that do exist will not be handled in the press.” That’s not to suggest that an extension is off the table, of course. “He likes Houston,” Cabrera says of Valdez. “Whatever conversation (happens) beyond that is something we’ll address if necessary. Until then, there’s no use in speculating.”

Part of the reason that extensions have been in the spotlight in Houston is the hiring of Brown a few weeks ago. He came over from an Atlanta organization that has been the most aggressive in the league when it comes to locking up core players to lengthy extensions. Brown has been quite open about his desire to bring a similar strategy to Houston and the club has already crossed one player off the list. Last week, Javier and the club agreed to a five-year, $64MM guarantee that secured his salary for his three remaining arbitration years as well as buying out two free agent seasons.

The situations with Valdez and Javier have some parallels but also some notable differences. Both players have between three and four years of service time right now, meaning Valdez is currently slated to reach free agency after 2025, just as Javier was before agreeing to his new deal. Valdez’s track record of success is a bit lengthier, but he’s also significantly older since he had a sort of late bloomer trajectory. He was up-and-down over his first couple of seasons and didn’t truly establish himself until the 2020 season, when he was 26. Javier, on the other hand, also cemented himself in that 2020 campaign when he was 23.

Looking at the results, Valdez and Javier have been similarly effective, though they’ve accomplished that in different ways. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.66 FIP while his teammate has a 3.05 ERA but a 3.90 FIP. Javier’s 30.9% strikeout rate is much better than the 22.9% rate of Valdez, but the reverse is true in terms of getting ground balls, with Valdez at 66.2% thus far in his career and Javier at only at 27.1%. Valdez has also built this résumé over a large sample size, with his 514 1/3 innings almost twice as large as the 304 1/3 of Javier, and his 8.5 fWAR tally is also heftier than the 4.5 of Javier.

Given the larger sample of quality work, Valdez could perhaps make an argument that he is deserving of an even larger contract than what Javier just secured. He also qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player, which allowed him to earn $3MM last year and $6.8MM this year. Javier, on the other hand, had requested at $3.5MM for this year while the Astros filed at $3MM, before the extension was agreed upon. With Valdez getting himself to a higher price point, that would give him extra leverage in trying to top Javier in extensions talks.

But it’s possible that the age situation causes the calculus to change. In the case of Javier, the Astros are paying him for five seasons in which he will be aged 26 in the first and 30 in the last. For Valdez, the Astros can already control him via arbitration through his age-31 season and any extension would involve locking him in for his age-32 campaign or beyond. It’s possible that the club would have a bit less motivation to keep Valdez around longer since they already control the bulk of what are likely to be his prime years.

Then there’s also the player perspective to consider. Though Javier gave up two free agent years when he put pen to paper, he’s still slated to become a free agent prior to his age-31 campaign and could be in position to find another lengthy deal. If Valdez were to strike a similar deal that also gave the club two extra years of control, he wouldn’t hit the open market until the offseason where he turns 34, which would likely limit him to short-term deals even if he’s still having good results on the field at that point.

It’s possible that Valdez would prefer to stay on his current trajectory so that he can hold onto his best chance of a mega deal. It’s also possible that the Astros could simply put forth an offer that’s too good for him to pass up, but based on the comments from his agent, that doesn’t seem to be something that’s imminent. For now, he’ll be going into 2023 arguably as the frontman of the Houston rotation, with Justin Verlander now pitching for the Mets. He’ll be looking to build off an excellent season where he made 31 starts with a 2.82 ERA, and then took the ball another four times in the postseason with a 1.44 ERA, helping the club to its second World Series title.

Trade Candidate: Vidal Brujan

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A depth surplus and roster crunch is familiar territory for the Rays, who seemingly make a trade or two at the start of each offseason to reallocate spots to players they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. This winter saw former top infield prospect Xavier Edwards shipped alongside reliever JT Chargois to the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers nowhere close to the majors.

Even with Edwards no longer in the picture, the Rays have plenty of infield talent. That could result in another trade, with a different one-time top minor leaguer also appearing to be on the roster bubble. Vidal Bruján played in 52 MLB games last season and has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two years. He’s yet to establish himself as an everyday player, though, and it’s questionable whether the Rays are in a great position to give him that opportunity.

Bruján appeared at the back half of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2019-22. A switch-hitter with plus speed, he’s put up a solid .274/.355/.440 line and 70 stolen bases over 166 games at the Triple-A level. Bruján doesn’t have huge power, but he’s an advanced contact hitter and athletic enough to be a quality baserunner. He’s gone down on strikes in just 15.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances while walking at a quality 10.4% clip.

That upper minors production didn’t carry over in his first significant big league action. Over 162 plate appearances last season, he hit .163/.228/.259 with three homers and five steals in 10 attempts. Those numbers aren’t an entirely fair reflection of his performance, as Bruján’s .193 batting average on balls in play will certainly come up over a longer sample. He didn’t hit the ball hard at the MLB level but continued to make contact at an above-average clip.

Headed into his age-25 season, Bruján certainly still has promise. Yet he doesn’t have the clearest path to at-bats in Tampa Bay, at least to open the season. Primarily a middle infielder throughout his minor league tenure, he’s certainly not displacing Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco if those players are healthy. The Rays have given him some outfield work to take advantage of his athleticism. Bruján doesn’t have the kind of power one would expect from a primary corner outfielder. He’s not likely to be the caliber of center fielder Jose Siri or Josh Lowe are given his lack of high level experience at the outfield’s most demanding position.

There’s not a clear path to everyday playing time for Bruján anywhere at the MLB level right now. He still has one remaining option year, however, raising the possibility of him heading back to Triple-A Durham for an additional season.

Trading Bruján would represent a sell-low situation. He’d have value but wouldn’t fetch an astronomical return after a down rookie season. Keeping him in a utility capacity gives manager Kevin Cash a potential pinch-runner or defensive substitute later in games but isn’t likely to afford Bruján the at-bats to play his way into a more consistent role.

The latter course of action is also complicated by the Rays’ surplus of alternative bench possibilities. Assuming the club deploys 13 pitchers and position players alike, they’ll have four reserve spots available. One will go to the backup catcher. Luke Raley is out of options, meaning he’ll have to stay in the majors or be offered to other teams. Taylor Walls didn’t hit last season but is an excellent infielder, one whom the Rays trusted more regularly than Bruján when Franco and Brandon Lowe were injured in 2022. Walls can be optioned, but doing so would subtract likely the top defensive shortstop from the active roster.

It’s the opposite story for Jonathan Aranda, who comes with defensive concerns but mashed at a .318/.394/.521 clip in Durham to earn a brief MLB look. Aranda can be optioned back, though he clearly has nothing left to prove against minor league pitching. His lefty bat would also be a welcome addition to a Rays’ lineup that heavily skews right-handed, so it stands to reason the front office would prefer to have Aranda in the majors. Another top infield prospect, Curtis Mead, is almost certainly going to make his MLB debut in 2023 after hitting .305/.394/.548 over 56 games in Triple-A last season. He was added onto the 40-man roster this offseason and ranks as the game’s #36 prospect at Baseball America.

Juggling this kind of infield talent is nothing new for a front office that tends to prioritize high-contact middle infielders on draft day. It’s the kind of depth most other organizations aren’t able to stockpile, which makes even players towards the back of the Tampa Bay roster intriguing to other clubs. If the Rays feel Bruján is trending in that direction, they could open talks with other teams that have acute needs up the middle. The White Sox, A’s, Tigers, Pirates and Angels are among the speculative candidates for such a trade — particularly since non-competitive teams like Oakland, Detroit and Pittsburgh can afford to live with some early growing pains to take a chance on Bruján’s longer-term upside.

There weren’t any indications over the offseason the Rays were especially anxious to move Bruján. Perhaps an injury in Spring Training paves the way for him to assume a more obvious role in Tampa Bay than exists right now. If everyone’s healthy come Opening Day, though, he’d head into the season as an interesting potential trade chip if the Rays don’t flip him during Spring Training.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested Bruján was out of options. MLBTR has confirmed the Rays were granted a fourth option year, with Bruján having one option season remaining. MLBTR regrets the error.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Outright Alejo López

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The Reds have outrighted infielder Alejo López after he cleared waivers, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, with López staying in camp as a non-roster invitee. He was designated for assignment last week when the club acquired outfielder Will Benson from the Guardians.

López, 27 in May, has appeared in each of the past two major league seasons but with little to show for it thus far. In 75 games, he’s hit .262/.307/.321 for a wRC+ of 70, indicating he’s been 30% below league average at the plate. He has at least provided some defensive versatility, spending time at second base, third base and all three outfield positions.

One of his best attributes is that he’s very difficult to strike out. He’s only gone down on strikes in 14.5% of his major league plate appearances thus far and usually at even lower rates in the minors. However, he also doesn’t walk much and provides little power, with only one big league home run in his career and never topping six in the minors.

Since he has never been outrighted before and has less than three years of service time, he doesn’t have the right to reject an outright assignment and will therefore stick with the Reds. He’ll try to earn his way back onto the roster at some point, with the club’s infield mix a little uncertain at the moment. Jonathan India should be at second base with Kevin Newman at short and Spencer Steer at third, with Jose Barrero perhaps in the mix for some playing time as well. López will be jockeying with other non-roster invitees like Richie Martin, Jason Vosler and Matt Reynolds, trying to earn a spot as a bench infielder or utility option.

Randal Grichuk Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery

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Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk tells Thomas Harding of MLB.com that he underwent surgery for a bilateral sports hernia a week ago. Grichuk said that he could be ready to return to game action in about six weeks in a best-case scenario. Since Opening Day is roughly six weeks away, it’s possible he could be ready by then, but it seems that missing some time will now be a distinct possibility.

“It was one of those things that was not going to get better, and it was a matter of when was it going to get worse,” Grichuk said. “I’d much rather miss Spring Training, get back late spring and miss only a little bit of [regular-season] time than try to play through the grind of trying to play every day, 100% effort, then let it flare in April and miss two or three months of the season.”

Grichuk, 31, came over to the Rockies a year ago in a trade that sent Raimel Tapia to the Blue Jays. He’s long been a big power threat in the box but often undercuts the value of that power with a lack of walks and low on-base percentages. His first year in Colorado followed that pattern, as he hit 19 home runs but walked in just 4.5% of his plate appearances, barely half of the 8.2% league average. He finished the season with a .259/.299/.425 batting line and a wRC+ of 88, indicating he was 12% below league average.

Grichuk primarily played right field for Colorado last year but also saw significant time in center. He and Yonathan Daza seemed poised to be the most likely candidates for center field work this year. If Grichuk has to miss any time, that could leave Daza as the primary option in the middle, with Kris Bryant in left and Charlie Blackmon in right, though both of those players will likely see some time as the designated hitter as well. Younger players like Sean Bouchard, Nolan Jones or Michael Toglia could factor into the mix as well, or perhaps non-roster invitee Harold Castro. The club’s top prospect is outfielder Zac Veen, and he could reach the big leagues at some point this year. But he’s only played 34 Double-A games thus far and struggled mightily in those, suggesting he still needs more time on the farm.

It doesn’t seem like Grichuk is expecting to miss much or any of the regular season, but it’s one more challenge for a club that won 68 games last year and had a very quiet offseason.

The Opener: Profar, Arbitration, MLBTR Chat

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Happy Valentine’s Day to all of those who are celebrating! With pitchers and catchers reporting for most of the baseball world tomorrow, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Profar stands alone.

With Michael Wacha agreeing to terms in San Diego this morning, Jurickson Profar is the last man standing from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list back in November. With pitchers and catchers formally reporting this week — and many others already down in their teams’ spring camps — there figures to be some increased urgency for the remaining names to find landing spots (hence recent deals for Wacha, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer).

Of course, the opening of camps could create some new opportunities for the remaining free agents; it’s likely that teams will run into some unexpected health issues in the coming days and weeks. On the pitching side of things, we’ve already seen the Yankees’ rotation impacted by Nestor Cortes Jr.’s grade 2 hamstring strain and by Frankie Montas’ shoulder injury. The Brewers announced last week that Aaron Ashby is dealing with shoulder fatigue and might not be ready for the start of the regular season. Reds reliever Tejay Antone is out for an extended period to begin the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain.

None of those pitching injuries will directly impact Profar’s market, but as position players begin to report to camp, go through intake physicals and begin ramping up for the season, new opportunities could come to light. Any corner outfield injuries that pop up in the weeks to come will be worth keeping a close eye on with regard to Profar.

2. Arbitration season continues:

The Angels went to arbitration against infielder Luis Rengifo yesterday, according to the AP. In his first trip through arbitration, Rengifo’s camp filed at $2.3MM while the Angels countered at $2MM. Due to Rengifo’s status as a first time arb-eligible player, this hearing is particularly crucial for his future earnings as arbitration salaries tend to use previous salaries as a baseline. Rengifo joins fellow Angel Hunter Renfroe and a trio of Rays (Colin Poche, Harold Ramirez, and Ryan Thompson) among players waiting on an announcement of the decision after their arbitration hearing earlier in the month. Per the AP, nine more players remain scheduled for hearings throughout the week.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Do you have any questions regarding your favorite team or the larger baseball world as the 30 clubs gear up for Spring Training and make their last minute offseason moves? MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be fielding questions from readers today during a live chat at 11am CT. If you would like to ask questions in advance, you can do so here. That same link will also take you to the chat when it begins if you would like to participate live.

Ted Lerner Passes Away

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Ted Lerner, the real estate developer who purchased the Washington Nationals in 2006, has passed away, reports Jonathan Karl of ABC News. Lerner was 97 years old. The cause was complications from pneumonia, per a report from Adam Bernstein and Matt Schudel of The Washington Post.

Major League Baseball took over ownership of the struggling Montreal Expos franchise in January of 2002 and started looking for new locations for the club. That process led to the team being moved to Washington, D.C. for the 2005 season and Lerner purchased the club in 2006.

The first few seasons in Washington were times of transition for the franchise. They initially played in RFK Stadium, which opened in 1961, as plans for a new stadium were put in place. Nationals Park then opened in 2008, with the team playing there to this day. In terms of results, the team finished 5th in the National League East division in five out of its first six seasons. The silver lining of all that losing is that the club received strong draft picks that it used to build a stockpile of young talent, including players like Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

Those players and others would eventually help the club emerge as perennial contenders for an extended stretch. Beginning in 2012, the club posted a winning record in eight straight seasons, qualifying for the postseason in five of those. The first four trips to the playoffs resulted in quick exits, but the Nats eventually pushed through and won the World Series in 2019.

Since hoisting that trophy, the club has fallen on hard times again, posting losing records in the three subsequent seasons. That has prompted the club to lean into a rebuild, trading away star players like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Their 55-107 record in 2022 was the worst in the majors for that season and the worst for the franchise since the move to Washington.

The Lerner family is still the club’s primary owner, though Ted transferred control of the club to his son Mark in 2018, when the former was 92 and the latter 64. It was reported in April last year that the family was going to explore a sale of the club, though the most recent reporting indicates that not much progress has been made on that front.

Regardless of how that eventually unfolds, most baseball fans in the Washington area will likely look fondly on the most recent era of Nationals baseball. Though it took some time to get going, the club was eventually transformed from a basement dweller into a champion in the Ted Lerner era, though their one title did come shortly after he ceded official control.

MLBTR extends its condolences to all those around the baseball world mourning Lerner today, including his family, friends and many others around the game who crossed paths with him over the years.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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