Latest On Cubs, Cody Bellinger
The Cubs and center fielder Cody Bellinger came together on a one-year deal last offseason after Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers that November. The deal went exceptionally well for both sides as Bellinger bounced back to his previous, All Star-caliber form with a .307/.356/.525 slash line in 130 games last year before returning to the open market earlier this winter. Since, then, Bellinger’s market has been a surprisingly quiet one. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on the 28-year-old’s free agency today, suggesting that it’s a “widespread belief” in the industry that Bellinger will return to the north side when all is said and done this winter.
Even so, Feinsand makes clear that no deal is considered close between the two sides. While Bellinger is known to be seeking north of $200MM in free agency this winter, Feinsand indicates that Chicago brass is “showing restraint” in their bids for Bellinger’s services given the lack of aggressive suitors pursuing the offseason’s top free agent outfielder. While the report suggests the Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Mets, and Mariners could all be possible suitors for the slugger’s services, Feinsand makes clear that those teams are likely only interested in the event that Bellinger’s price tag drops considerably below his current asking price.
It’s easy to see the fit for Bellinger in Chicago. While the club added infielder Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers this winter, giving the 26-year-old a likely inside track for the club’s wide-open first base job, the club still suffers from a relative lack of left-handed power and the return of Bellinger could help to fill the vacuum. What’s more, his 134 wRC+ last year led the team as they fell just a game short of returning to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, and his departure would leave a hole in the middle of the club’s order unless he was replaced with another quality bat.
That being said, if Bellinger were to patrol center field on a regular basis that would seemingly block top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who made his major league debut last September with a profile highlighted by his defensive wizardry in center. While Crow-Armstrong may benefit from more development time at the Triple-A level (where he’s logged just 34 career appearances) after he went hitless in his first 19 trips to the plate in the majors last fall, the presence of Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on long-term deals in the outfield corners could complicate the Cubs’ long-term outlook in the outfield if Bellinger does return.
More notes from the north side of Chicago…
- As relayed by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks recently noted that, contrary to rumors that percolated this past autumn, the sides did not discuss a potential multi-year deal before the Cubs picked up his club option back in November. Hendricks added that the sides similarly haven’t made any sort of progress on a hypothetical contract extension in the months since. The 34-year-old has spent his entire major league career with the Cubs and rebounded from a pair of injury-marred seasons to post a solid 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 24 starts for the club last year. The longest-tenured player remaining on the big league roster, Hendricks figures to reach free agency for the first time in his career next winter if the sides don’t reach an agreement before then. In the event Hendricks does depart after the 2024 campaign, it could create openings in the club’s rotation for a number of young pitchers including Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and top pitching prospect Cade Horton.
- While the Cubs have typically avoided committing to free agent relievers on multi-year deals in recent years, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated that the club may be willing to go out of its comfort zone in order to bolster the bullpen this winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Hoyer noted that the Cubs have made “some” multiyear offers to bullpen arms in free agency this offseason before going on to emphasize that bolstering the club’s relief corps is a focus for the team headed into 2024. With Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson having recently come off the market, the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson and Hector Neris represent the best remaining bullpen options in free agency.
Latest On Twins’ Trade Discussions
The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.
That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.
Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.
Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.
If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.
MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.
Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers
While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.
That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.
With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.
More notes from Houston…
- Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
- Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.
Pirates Owner Bob Nutting Aiming For “Contention Throughout The Season”
The Pirates last reached the playoffs in 2015 and haven’t had a winning season since 2018, as the team embarked on a long rebuild process that might be slowly approaching the end. Through a lengthy downturn in the middle of the season sunk Pittsburgh’s chances in 2023, the team played well at both the very start and very end of the year to deliver a 76-86 record — the Bucs’ highest win total since their 82 wins in 2018. The Pirates also avoided the NL Central basement for the second consecutive year, as the Cardinals surprisingly tumbled to last place.
On paper, the Buccos still seem a few pieces away from at least a couple of division rivals, and in the National League as a whole when it comes to a push for a wild card spot. However, given the lack of certainty within the division and some of the young talent on Pittsburgh’s roster, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if the Pirates are closer than we might think to being legitimate contenders in 2024.
This is the view of Pirates owner Bob Nutting, who told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey that he was “very enthusiastic to see another step forward” for his team.
“I’m not gonna pick a number of games or wins, but for the first time in what feels like a decade and maybe on the calendar is 6-7 years, we’re within striking distance of a good team. We’re short of that still, but the progression is clearly going in the right direction. My expectation is we take another meaningful step forward [in 2024]. With the current playoff system, another step forward means we can be in contention throughout the season. That’s a minimum expectation we should have and one we should be building on.”
Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Mitch Keller, and David Bednar have become building blocks, while such former top prospects as Oneil Cruz and Henry Davis are viewed as cornerstone players once they receive more seasoning at the Major League level. Losing another key prospect in Endy Rodriguez for all of 2024 is a blow, yet some other top minor leaguers might soon be emerging as the next wave of talent, including 2023 first overall draft pick Paul Skenes if he continues his rapid rise up the ladder.
Andrew McCutchen was re-signed as the veteran leader and face of the franchise, and the Pirates have looked to add more experience by acquiring the likes of Rowdy Tellez, Marco Gonzales, and Martin Perez. The latter two in particular are needed additions to a thin pitching staff that got even thinner this offseason when Johan Oviedo was lost to Tommy John surgery.
The reinforcements aren’t exactly rock-solid, given how Tellez, Gonzales, and Perez were all either ineffective or injured during the 2023 season. In fact, in adding this group of veterans but losing Oviedo and Rodriguez, it can be argued that the Pirates haven’t really much advanced their talent level, considering that McCutchen was already on the team last season.
Nutting is “very pleased with what Ben’s getting done” to date, one of a few instances where Nutting praised the work of GM Ben Cherington. That said, Nutting also noted that “I wish we were further along in this offseason than we are. I’ve seen how hard Ben has pushed. I’ve seen how close we’ve gotten to some deals. But we’re only halfway through. I think there’s still time. There’s still a lot of work to be done. I think Ben understands the expectations.”
Of course, Pittsburgh fans might certainly observe that Cherington could do more to restock the roster if he had more financial support. Since Nutting bought the team in 2007, the Bucs have regularly been at or near the bottom of the league when it comes to payroll, and have only once (in 2016) finished as high as 20th in Opening Day payroll. Cherington said in December that the Pirates were going to raise their spending level from 2023 to 2024, and Nutting reiterated to Mackey that Cherington “has room to make moves that we need to make,” even if the owner didn’t specify any exact dollar figure.
In modest fashion, the Pirates are on pace to indeed surpass last year’s spending levels, considering that most moves still need to be made to upgrade the roster. Pittsburgh had a $73.27MM Opening Day payroll in 2023 and Roster Resource projects their current 2024 payroll at around $69.2MM, so one more significant signing could alone put the Pirates well over last year’s mark.
Considering how the Pirates have been linked to such names as Shota Imanaga, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jack Flaherty, the Bucs seem to be willing to stretch the budget a bit further than usual to make a somewhat bigger-ticket expenditure. It can be assumed that the Pirates won’t yet break the bank for a Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell, but such second-tier names as Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, James Paxton, and other remain on the open market. Several more options exist in possible trades, though Nutting seemed to caution against the idea that Pittsburgh would deal significant prospects at this point in their rebuild.
“We need to make the team better now and make sure that we’re not mortgaging the future going forward, [and] that we’re not making decisions where we’re giving up so much talent in a trade that we end up watching former pitchers thrive elsewhere,” Nutting said.
Phillies Notes: Hicks, Pitching Depth, Kilambi
Before Jordan Hicks signed with the Giants last week, the right-hander and the Phillies shared some “mutual interest,” according to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. The extent of the talks between the two sides isn’t known, or if the Phils offered Hicks anything in the ballpark of the four years and $44MM he received from San Francisco. However, Gelb notes that “the Phillies viewed Hicks as a reliever,” which might have been a difference-maker since the Giants plan to give Hicks a chance to stick as a starting pitcher.
The hard-throwing Hicks might have stepped right into the closer’s job in Philly, or at least joined Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto and Jeff Hoffman in the late-game mix now that Craig Kimbrel has left for the Orioles in free agency. It isn’t a secret that Philadelphia has been looking for bullpen help, and while president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has stated that further offseason additions would come “more around the edges” of the roster, the Phils’ pursuits of Hicks and (before he joined the Angels) Robert Stephenson indicate that the club is still prepared to make a significant financial outlay on a possible upgrade.
As much as the Phillies would like to more options to both the rotation and relief corps, however, they’re in something of a Catch-22 situation of having too much pitching depth to acquire more pitching depth. Philadelphia’s starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez is set, and while the Phillies might want to add a more experienced depth arm in front of Dylan Covey or Nick Nelson, such available pitchers might seek out a team with a more clear-cut opportunity for innings.
“I’ve got a list of names and all that,” Dombrowski told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “Once they get done with [holding out for] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, then they can start looking and say, ‘Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there, so maybe that’s an opportunity to go to Triple-A and be in that spot.’ “
Lauber’s broader piece focuses on the Phillies’ efforts to keep their pitchers healthy, including some changes to the front office and organizational structure during Dombrowski’s three-plus years as PBO. These changes included the hiring of Brian Kaplan as the Phils’ director of pitching in 2022, some new hires on the strength and conditioning staff, and a more streamlined training and communication process between players, coaches, and trainers at both the Major League and minor league levels.
The results were apparent last season, as the Phillies enjoyed an unusual amount of both quality and good health from their rotation. Philadelphia starters ranked first in baseball in fWAR (17.7) and third (899) in innings thrown by starting pitchers, despite something of a revolving door with the fifth starter position before Sanchez stabilized things. Of course, durability is no guarantee from one season to the next, so the Phillies want to be prepared in the likely event that the rotation simply won’t be as healthy as it was in 2023.
There is also an analytical element to the Phillies’ success in both keeping pitchers on the mound and in helping them achieve new levels of success, and this is the department of assistant GM Ani Kilambi. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey recently profiled the 29-year-old Kilambi, who was hired just over two years ago out of the Rays’ front office to bolster and modernize the Phillies’ rather understaffed research and development team.
“[Kilambi has] done a fantastic job of providing resources to understand how we get the most out of our players,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “It could be pitch usage, it could be biomechanics, it could be how they think. It’s about giving us, as coaches, more tools to make a connection with a pitcher.”
AL East Notes: Middleton, Duvall, Angels, Basallo
Keynan Middleton posted a 1.88 ERA over 14 1/3 innings and 12 appearances after the Yankees acquired the right-handed reliever from the White Sox in a deadline deal. With those kinds of numbers, it isn’t surprising that the Bronx Bombers “have engaged about a potential reunion” with Middleton, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.
About of a month of Middleton’s brief time with the Yankees was spent on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, though he was able to return to pitch in one final game before the end of the season. Injuries have played an unfortunately large role in Middleton’s career, as he has been limited to 194 1/3 innings over his seven MLB seasons due to a number of health issues, primarily a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost all of the 2018-19 seasons. Middleton hadn’t shown much form since returning from that surgery until this season, when he had a combined 3.38 ERA over 50 2/3 frames for Chicago and New York and some elite strikeout (30.2%), grounder (56.6%) and hard-contact (31.5%) rates. While his walk rate remained below average, the 30-year-old Middleton might finally be back on track, and could again be a solid contributor to the Yankees’ bullpen.
More from around the AL East…
- The Red Sox and Angels have been the only two teams publicly linked to Adam Duvall this winter, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that Duvall will “likely” wind up with one of those clubs barring a late bid from a new suitor. Duvall hit .247/.303/.531 with 21 homers over 353 plate appearances with the Sox last season, and his right-handed bat could serve as a nice complement to the lefty-swingers (i.e. Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) that comprise much of Boston’s outfield mix. Then again, Duvall could find more playing time in Los Angeles, given Mike Trout‘s injury history and the lack of a consistent MLB track record for either Mickey Moniak or even Taylor Ward in the Angels’ outfield.
- Since Adley Rutschman has quickly become a cornerstone player in Baltimore, catching prospect Samuel Basallo is often mentioned as a possible trade chip for the Orioles. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that rival clubs are indeed “checking on the availability” of Basallo in trade talks, yet it doesn’t seem likely that the O’s would move him for anything less than a spectacular offer. Basallo doesn’t turn 20 until August, and since he has only four games of Double-A experience, the Orioles can take their time with his development as both a catcher and as a hitter. Basallo has a strong throwing arm but evaluators are somewhat mixed on his future behind the plate, so if he ends up becoming more of a catcher/first base hybrid, Kubatko notes that there might be room for both Basallo and Rutschman to co-exist on Baltimore’s roster. One of many gems from the Orioles’ deep farm system, Basallo is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 46th-best prospect in all of baseball, while Baseball America puts Basallo behind only Jackson Holliday as Baltimore’s top minor leaguer.
Yomiuri Giants Sign Rougned Odor
Veteran infielder Rougned Odor has signed with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Hochi Sports. Odor had been a free agent since he was released by the Padres back in July.
Signed to a minor league deal last winter, Odor made San Diego’s Opening Day roster and appeared in 59 big league games, hitting .203/.299/.355 over 157 plate appearances. He acted as a left-handed hitting complement to the Padres’ largely right-handed infield group, and also chipped in at several positions around the diamond. Odor spent most of his time at his traditional second base spot, but also saw some playing time as a third baseman, and played some first base and right field for the first time in his MLB career.
Best known for his long stint as the Rangers’ everyday second baseman, Odor hit 127 homers over 2869 PA with Texas from 2015-19. His power was essentially the only plus within an otherwise inconsistent offensive approach that included few walks and an increasingly large number of strikeouts, and Odor hasn’t posted an above-average (better than 100) wRC+ since the 2016 season. For his career as a whole, Odor has an 85 wRC+ and a .230/.288/.422 slash line to go along with 178 career home runs.
The lack of production stood out given that Odor had signed a six-year, $49.5MM extension with the Rangers prior to the 2017 season. Texas ended up trading Odor to the Yankees prior to the 2021 campaign, and Odor then caught on with the Orioles for the 2022 season. Odor received some praise for his veteran leadership on a young O’s team that broke out to win 83 games, signalling the end of the club’s long rebuilding process.
Though he already has ten Major League seasons on his resume, Odor is still a couple of weeks shy of his 30th birthday. He’ll now start his next decade with a new chapter in his baseball career as he heads to Japan, and whether he shows enough to catch the eye of Major League scouts for a future return to North America remains to be seen. At the very least, Odor has secured a larger guaranteed payday for himself for 2024 than he would have found in the big leagues, as the infielder would’ve been limited to minor league offers.
Astros Sign Josh Hader To Five-Year Contract
The Astros announced they have signed left-hander Josh Hader. It is reportedly a five-year, $95MM contract. The deal has no deferrals, which makes it the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher in terms of present-day value. Edwin Díaz signed a $102MM deal with the Mets prior to last season, setting a new benchmark for a reliever, but there was some deferred money that dropped the present-day value and competitive balance tax calculation to around $93MM.
Hader, a CAA Sports client, will earn $19MM annually through the 2028 season. The southpaw can also collect an additional $1MM bonus for winning the Reliever of the Year Award, an honor he has already received three times in his career. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and no options, team or player alike.
On Thursday, Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were “making a push” to sign the five-time All-Star. It came as little surprise that GM Dana Brown was looking to supplement a bullpen that lost several key players to free agency, namely Héctor Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. In addition, 2023 trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman is likely to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That said, Brown recently downplayed his desire to add another reliever. After the news broke of Graveman’s surgery, the GM told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros were “still in the market for relievers,” but also said, “We got some internal candidates that we really feel good about.” In a similar vein, he told Rome, “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.”
On top of that, Brown told reporters during the GM Meetings in November that he didn’t have “a ton” of payroll flexibility to work with. Thus, Astros fans began to brace themselves for a slow offseason, and rumors even began to emerge that the team could trade All-Stars Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez
In hindsight, the executive was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest. After all, signing the top reliever on the market to a record-breaking contract is just about the complete opposite of tightening the purse strings and hoping an internal candidate steps up. Indeed, Hader’s salary brings the Astros over the first luxury tax threshold and dangerously close to the second; according to Roster Resource, their CBT payroll sits at $254.6MM, less than $3MM away from the $257MM threshold. Houston has never paid the luxury tax before, although the team crossed the threshold in 2020 when there were no penalties for doing so.
Because Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, the Astros will lose their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money. However, the extra penalties they could face as Competitive Balance Tax payors won’t kick in until next offseason; if the Astros remain over the CBT threshold throughout 2024 and sign another QO free agent next winter, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.
The Astros don’t usually sign free agents with qualifying offers attached to them, just as they don’t usually exceed the CBT threshold. To that end, they don’t often sign $95MM deals. As Rome points out on X, this is the largest free agent contract the club has signed in Jim Crane’s 12-year tenure as owner of the Astros. Evidently, then, Crane and Brown have high hopes for what Hader can bring to the bullpen – and for good reason. The left-hander has long been one of the top relievers in the game. Across seven MLB seasons with the Brewers and Padres, he boasts a 2.50 ERA, 2.27 SIERA, and 165 saves in 190 chances. Since his debut in 2017, no pitcher (min. 5 IP) has struck out batters at a higher rate.
Hader, who turns 30 this April, looked as dominant as ever in 2023, ranking second among qualified NL relievers with a 1.28 ERA. Meanwhile, his Statcast expected ERA ranked third in all of baseball. What’s more, he recorded 33 saves in 61 games, crossing the 30-save threshold for the fourth time in his career. With a hard sinker and mystifying slider, he recorded 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings of work.
The presumptive closer will join right-handers Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of what could be the scariest bullpen in the American League. The Astros ranked fourth in the AL in bullpen ERA last season and first from the trade deadline through the end of the year. Although Houston has parted ways with several key contributors this winter, adding Hader goes a long way toward replenishing what was lost. The three departing relievers, plus Graveman, provided the Astros with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season, per FanGraphs. Hader alone was worth 1.7 WAR in 2023 and has averaged 1.94 WAR per 60 games throughout his career. While he cannot cover the workload of four separate pitchers all on his own, he should provide his team with 50-60 valuable innings in the most high-leverage spots. The Astros could still use some more depth to fill out the bullpen, but their back-end trio of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu might be the best one-two-three punch in the game.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were in agreement on a five-year, $95MM deal with no deferrals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first relayed the even $19MM salaries, no-trade clause and award bonus. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed the $1MM value of that bonus. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported the lack of options or opt-outs.
Cardinals Sign Matt Carpenter To One-Year Deal
The Cardinals announced that they have signed Matt Carpenter to a one-year deal. He was already under contract for 2024 but was released by Atlanta last month, meaning the Cards will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what Atlanta pays. The Cards now have a full 40-man roster.
Carpenter, now 38, returns to the organization where he spent the majority of his career and had his best years. Drafted by the Cardinals in 2009, he was with the big league club from 2011 to 2021. He played in 1,329 games in that time, hitting 155 home runs while slashing .262/.368/.449 for a wRC+ of 125. He made three All-Star teams in that time and won a Silver Slugger award.
His production tailed off in the final three of those seasons, including a batting line of just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. The Cards declined a $18.5MM club option for 2022, taking the $2MM buyout instead. As a free agent, he made a concerted effort to revamp his swing but still had to settle for a minor league deal with the Rangers that winter. He reported to their Triple-A club and showcased his new swing with tremendous success, slashing .275/.379/.613 in 21 games there.
Despite that excellent showing, the Rangers released him and Carpenter was able to secure a big league deal with the Yankees. For a short amount of time, he was arguably the hottest hitter on the planet. In 47 games in pinstripes, he hit 15 home runs and produced a monster line of .305/.412/.727. Unfortunately, that dazzling display was cut short when he fouled a ball off his foot and suffered a fracture in early August.
The Padres decided to bank on that brief burst, giving Carpenter a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, with an opt-out after the first season. But he crashed back down to earth in a big way, hitting .176/.322/.319 last year. He clearly fell out of favor with manager Bob Melvin, getting only 30 plate appearances from late July until the end of the season. Carpenter made the easy decision to lock in $5.5MM for 2024 by exercising his player option.
Though he declined a chance to return to the open market, he would find himself back there anyway. The Padres traded him to Atlanta along with left-hander Ray Kerr, with minor league outfielder Drew Campbell going to the Padres. Atlanta tried to trade Carpenter again but gave up and released him three days later, clearly demonstrating that they only took on his contract as a means of getting Kerr.
The Cardinals will be hoping that Carpenter has another bounceback in him, presumably inserting him into their designated hitter/pinch hitter/bench bat mix. Carpenter played some third base and the outfield corners as recently as 2022 with the Yankees but was mostly a DH with the Padres last year, with 81 innings at first base his only time in the field.
The Cards don’t have a strict DH on the roster, with nine different players having received 27 or more plate appearances in that slot last year. They could opt for a similar approach in 2024. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will have the infield corners spoken for, with Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman perhaps up the middle. Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are the likely starting outfielders while Dylan Carlson could be the fourth outfielder. Brendan Donovan figures to be in a super utility role until an injury opens up a clear path to playing time.
But there are also elements of uncertainty in that group. Goldschmidt is going into his age-36 season and will turn 37 towards the tail end. Winn isn’t a lock to hold down shortstop after he struggled in his first taste of MLB pitching, which could perhaps move Edman there. But Edman himself underwent offseason wrist surgery and is still recovering. Donovan had flexor tendon surgery late last year. Walker is a former infielder who is still considered to be a poor defender in an outfield corner.
There are many moving pieces and it’s possible that things open up in a way that leaves room for Carpenter to get back on track this year. There are at least some similarities here to the situation with Albert Pujols. He also spent his best years in St. Louis before wandering to other clubs and struggling, but he came back to the Cards in 2022 and had arguably his best performance in over a decade. Carpenter’s overall career doesn’t compare to Pujols and he’s also had some more recent signs of success, but it’s an interesting parallel nonetheless.
Ultimately, it’s a low-risk move for the Cards since Carp is essentially free and isn’t guaranteed any playing time. If his performance is similar to his 2023 work with the Padres, he can simply be released, with Atlanta remaining on the hook for his salary.
Perhaps the person with the most to lose with today’s news is Alec Burleson. He was lined up to be a lefty-swinging bench bat for the club but might now get pushed to the farm, since he still has a full slate of options. He has hit well in the minors but has slashed just .237/.295/.375 in his major league career thus far. Perhaps he will find himself taking regular at-bats in Triple-A, depending on the health and performance of the aforementioned names on the roster.
For Cardinal fans, it could be another year of nostalgia storylines involving some long-tenured players. In 2022, Pujols returned to the club for a farewell tour, with both himself and Yadier Molina retiring after that campaign. Last year, Adam Wainwright‘s attempts to secure his 200th career win before walking away from the game took center stage as the club fell out of contention.
Joel Kuhnel Elects Free Agency
Reliever Joel Kuhnel elected free agency this week, according to his MLB.com transaction log. That was his right after being outrighted by the Astros, marking the second time in his career that he cleared outright waivers.
Kuhnel, 29 next month, split last season between the Reds and Houston. He pitched 13 innings over nine MLB appearances, allowing eight runs with five walks and a trio of strikeouts. Kuhnel spent more of the season in Triple-A. He combined for a 6.18 ERA in 43 2/3 innings at the top minor league level between the two organizations. Kuhnel fanned a below-average 15.5% of opponents over that stretch.
While it wasn’t a great showing, he’s only a year removed from soaking up 58 innings of low-leverage relief in Cincinnati. Kuhnel’s 6.36 ERA that year isn’t particularly impressive, but he induced ground-balls at a 52.2% clip. Kuhnel has generally done a solid job keeping the ball on the ground throughout his career behind a mid-90s sinker. He could find a minor league contract from a team seeking bullpen depth.