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Brewers Sign Justin Wilson

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The Brewers announced that left-hander Justin Wilson was signed to a one-year contract with a club option for the 2024 season.  Since Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery last June, it isn’t known whether or not he’ll be able to pitch this season, but Milwaukee will retain control over his services when he is healthy.

The ACES client will make $850K in 2023 and the option is valued at $2.5MM with a $150K buyout; it’s a $1MM guarantee overall. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Milwaukee placed righty Jason Alexander on the 60-day injured list after he suffered a shoulder strain. He’ll be out until the end of May at the earliest.

Wilson will remain in the NL Central, as he had been a member of the Reds organization since he was dealt from the Yankees as part of a deal prior to the 2021 trade deadline.  Wilson ended up posting a 2.75 ERA over his 19 2/3 total innings with Cincinnati, but his elbow problems limited him to only 3 2/3 innings of work in 2022.  Wilson averaged 67 games and 61 innings per season from 2013-18, though he missed significant time in 2019 due to elbow soreness and then in 2021 due to a hamstring.

Through 11 MLB seasons, Wilson has a 3.41 career ERA, a solidly above-average 25.9% strikeout rate, and a subpar 10.7% walk rate.  The free passes are the only real weak link on Wilson’s resume, as the southpaw has done well to induce grounders and limit hard contact over his career.  The 35-year-old also has roughly identical career splits against both left-handed and right-handed batters.

This solid performance hasn’t prevented Wilson from bouncing around the league, as he has seen big league action with six different teams over the course of his career.  The Brewers are certainly hopeful of being the seventh, perhaps as early as this summer if Wilson is on the short end of the usual 14-16 month recovery period for Tommy John patients.  On the plus side, Wilson won’t require as much arm build-up since he’ll be working out of the bullpen, so it would seem like there’s a decent chance that he’ll be able to get on the mound before the 2023 campaign is over.

Hoby Milner is the only left-hander projected for Milwaukee’s Opening Day bullpen, and Alex Claudio, Thomas Pannone, and Robert Gasser are the southpaws in camp as non-roster invitees.  Aaron Ashby might have also factored into the Brew Crew’s relief plans if he wasn’t kept stretched out as rotation depth, but Ashby is now going to be out of action for several months due to shoulder inflammation.  While Wilson doesn’t provide any immediate help to the bullpen, he at least represents some left-handed relief depth down the road, while the Brewers figure out their plans for the start of the season.

Mariners Win Arbitration Case Against Teoscar Hernandez

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The Mariners were the winners of their arbitration hearing with Teoscar Hernandez, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link).  The arbitration panel ruled that Hernandez will earn $14MM in 2023, rather than the outfielder’s sought-after salary of $16MM.

This was Hernandez’s final year of arb eligibility, as he is slated to enter the free agent market next offseason.  2023 will also be the slugger’s first season in Seattle, after the M’s acquired Hernandez from the Blue Jays in one of the winter’s most notable trades.  The Mariners dealt a quality set-up man in Erik Swanson and an interesting pitching prospect in Adam Macko to Toronto in the hopes that the 30-year-old Hernandez can add some pop to the lineup.

Hernandez hit .267/.316/.491 with 25 home runs over 535 plate appearances with the Jays in 2022, continuing his string of somewhat quietly productive seasons.  Since the start of the 2018 season, Hernandez has hit 121 homers and slashed .263/.321/.499, which works out to a solidly above-average 120 wrRC+.  Hernandez won Silver Slugger honors in both 2020 and 2021, and was also named to his first All-Star team in 2021.

Despite all these pluses, the Jays felt Hernandez was expendable as part of their effort to add more defense, quickness, and left-handed hitting balance to the lineup.  While Hernandez’s speed is perhaps underrated, his glovework as a corner outfielder drew mixed reviews at best, and such major public defensive metrics as Outs Above Average (-5), UZR/150 (-5.3) and Defensive Runs Saved (-3) all gave him subpar marks as a right fielder in 2022.  Hernandez’s offensive production is also somewhat one-dimensional — he brings plenty of power and hard contact, but also a lot of swing-and-miss without many walks.

Since arbiters generally tend to look more at traditional counting stats than advanced metrics, the drop from Hernandez’s 2021 numbers (32 homers, 116 RBI, .296 average) to his 2022 number could explain why the panel ruled in favor of the Mariners.  Hernandez will still receive a nice raise from his $10.65MM salary in 2022, and barring an extension with the M’s at some point, he’ll look to deliver a good platform season to set him up for a hefty multi-year contract next offseason.

With Hernandez’s case now decided, Seattle’s arbitration business has concluded for the winter.  The club didn’t reach an agreement with three players prior to the figure-exchange deadline, but the Mariners ended up winning their hearings with Hernandez and Diego Castillo, and reaching a three-year extension with Dylan Moore.

Angels Win Arbitration Case Against Gio Urshela, Lose Against Hunter Renfroe

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The Angels have won their arbitration case against infielder Gio Urshela, and lost their case with Hunter Renfroe reports Jeff Fletcher of SoCal News Group. Urshela will now take home an $8.4MM salary in 2023, rather than the $10MM salary he’d filed for. Renfroe will get $11.9MM from the Angels, who’d countered with an $11.25MM offer. Both players are entering their first season with the Angels this year.

Urshela was acquired from the Twins earlier in the winter, after enjoying something of a bounceback year in 2022. The 31-year-old posted a .285/.338/.429 line with 13 home runs for the Twins last year, his most productive season since 2019 with the Yankees. The key there was a seven percentage point drop in his strikeout rate from a year prior, as well as an uptick in his walk rate.

Renfroe was picked up in an early off-season trade with the Brewers. The corner outfielder slugged 29 home runs last year on his way to a .255/.315/.492 line over 522 plate appearances. That came with some solid outfield defense, as Renfroe logged 2 Defensive Runs Saved in right field.

He figures to be the team’s everyday right fielder, but the playing time allocation for Urshela is a little less clear. Urshela’s generally graded out well at third base, but Anthony Rendon looks set to get the majority of the reps there. Rendon has missed 219 games in the past two years, but if he’s fit you’d have to think he’d be in the lineup at third most days. That could leave Urshela to spend time at the middle infield spots. He played a handful of games at short for the Yankees in 2021, but apart from that has been used only sparingly outside of third, so it’ll be interesting to see where he fits in the Angels lineup.

Both Urshela and Renfroe are entering their last season of club control, and will become free agents at the end of the season.

Manny Machado Set Feb 16 Deadline For Padres Extension Talks; Team Offered Further Five-Years, $105MM

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Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16  because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

Rangers Sign Dominic Leone To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have added right-hander Dominic Leone on a minor league deal, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Leone will receive an invite to spring training. Leone is represented by Frye McCann Sports.

The 31-year-old is coming off a season in which he pitched 49 1/3 innings for the Giants, working to a 4.01 ERA. That mark came with a 23.4% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate.

Originally taken in the 16th round of the 2012 draft by the Mariners, Leone, like a lot of relievers, has had an up-and-down career, scattering in some quality seasons with a few poor ones as well. He burst onto the scene with Seattle in 2014, working to a 2.17 ERA over 66 1/3 frames, but followed that up with a combined 8.40 ERA for Seattle and Arizona in 2015. 2016 saw his ERA at 6.33 for the Diamondbacks, before he put in an elite 2.56 ERA over 70 1/3 innings for the Blue Jays.

That season with the Blue Jays was enough for the Cardinals to part with Randal Grichuk to acquire Leone and Connor Greene. Yet Leone’s struggles would return in St Louis, and he’d own a 5.15 ERA over three seasons there. He’d struggle in a subsequent season with the Guardians, before bouncing back with an excellent debut campaign with the Giants in 2021. That year, Leone would work to a 1.51 ERA over 53 2/3 innings.

All told, Leone owns a career 3.69 ERA over 356 innings across parts of nine big league seasons. There’s not a lot to be taken from his career average given the volatility of his performance, but it’s clear there’s also still a bit of upside there. In Texas, Leone will reunite with some familiar faces, having worked with pitching coach Mike Maddux in St Louis, as well as Chris Young in Seattle.

Cardinals Win Arbitration Case Against Genesis Cabrera

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The Cardinals have won their arbitration case against Genesis Cabrera, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll now take home $950K in 2023, rather than the $1.15MM he filed for.

The left-hander had a down year in 2022, working to a 4.63 ERA across 44 2/3 frames for St Louis. Cabrera saw his strikeout rate crater to just 16.5%, and his home run rate increase by 3.1 percentage points.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic, Cabrera first appeared in the big leagues in 2019, but it was the following season that he really showed his promise. That year, Cabrera tossed 22 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball, combining an impressive 33.3% strikeout rate with a 16.7% walk rate. He fell back a little in 2021, but still posted a solid 3.73 ERA over 70 frame, picking up 28 holds in the process as the Cards afforded him more high leverage roles.

The 26-year-old throws a mid-90s fastball alongside a curveball and changeup. While the 2022 season was a step back for Cabrera, the Cardinals clearly believe in his arm enough to tender him a contract through arbitration. Another year like last may make that decision a little less likely next winter, but for now Cabrera figures to offer the Cardinals a valuable left-handed option out of the bullpen.

Rays Win Arbitration Cases Against Colin Poche, Ryan Thompson

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The Rays have won their arbitration cases against Colin Poche and Ryan Thompson, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links here and here). Poche will be paid $1.175MM rather than the $1.3MM he filed for, while Thompson will take home $1MM in 2023 instead of $1.2MM.

Poche, 29, put up a 3.99 ERA in 58 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay last season, his first major league action since the 2019 campaign. It’s worth noting here that his ERA was sitting a lot better at 3.39 prior to a four earned run in a third of an inning outing for the Rays towards the backend of the season, an outing which saw him suffer an oblique strain that ended his season. The left-hander’s 26.1% strikeout rate in 2022 was well done from the 34.8% mark he posted in 2019.

This is Poche’s first trip through arbitration, so the Rays will also control him through the 2024-25 seasons as well.

Thompson, 30, wound up with a 3.80 ERA over 42 2/3 frames of work for the Rays last year. That was a bit of a step back from the 2.80 ERA mark he posted in 2021, and Thompson saw his strikeout rate dip by six percentage points between 2021-22. In any case, he’s established himself as a dependable member of the Rays bullpen after being taken from the Astros in the Rule 5 Draft back in 2018.

He dealt with triceps inflammation in August last year, and wound up on the injured list for the remainder of the season. This is also Thompson’s first trip through arbitration, so he’ll reach free agency in advance of the 2026 season.

Both Poche and Thompson figure to again be valuable members of the Rays’ bullpen in 2023. Poche gives them a third left handed option alongside Jalen Beeks and Garrett Cleavinger, while Thompson’s drawn an increasing amount of high-leverage work in recent seasons, and will again given them a dependable option late in games.

Reds Re-Sign Hunter Strickland To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have announced they’ve re-signed right-handed reliever Hunter Strickland to a minor league deal.

Strickland, 34, was a mainstay in their bullpen last year, pitching to a 4.91 ERA across 62 1/3 innings. Those numbers came with a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk rate. While his strikeout numbers were pretty much in line with his career averages, that walk rate was the highest he’d posted in his nine-year big league career.

Originally drafted in the 18th round of the 2007 draft by the Red Sox, Strickland would eventually make his big league debut for the Giants during the 2014 season, pitching in the World Series that year as the Giants were crowned champions. He was a really effective member of San Francisco bullpen between 2014-17, working to a 2.64 ERA over 180 2/3 innings.

He experienced some decline in 2018 and was non-tendered by the Giants following that season. Since then, he’s bounced around the league a bit, appearing for the Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Rays, Brewers, Angels and Reds since 2019, and compiling a 4.18 ERA over 148 2/3 innings in that time.

Pitching Notes: Bello, Bautista, Severino, McCullers

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With pitchers and catchers having now reported to their respective spring training sites, there’s a fair bit of news around the health of a number of pitchers around the sport.

Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello will take the weekend off throwing, and hopes to be able to throw again Monday, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. Bello apparently felt tightness in his forearm this week. Any time tightness and forearm are mentioned in the same sentence regarding a young pitcher there’s a fair bit of concern, but Bello says he believes it’s due to throwing a higher number of breaking balls of late.

In any case, he’ll be shutdown temporarily and the Red Sox and Bello will be hoping he’s good to go next week. Bello figures to compete for a spot in the Red Sox’ starting rotation this year. The 23-year-old made 11 solid starts (and two relief appearances) last season, working to a 4.71 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.

Here’s a few other injury tidbits from around the sport:

  • Orioles closer Felix Bautista told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that he expects to be ready for opening day. Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing left knee and right shoulder injuries, and has thrown four bullpen sessions since January. He’s believes he’ll be ready to get into spring matches around March 15, and will need four or five spring innings to get up to speed. Bautista was dominant for the Orioles during his rookie year last season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out batters at a quality 34.8% clip.
  • Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been shut down temporarily following him experiencing some soreness in his throwing arm (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). There’s always a bit of concern there particularly given McCullers’ injury history, but manager Dusty Baker gave reporters a promising outlook “he’s just getting treatment. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s feeling better.” McCullers is into his eighth season with the Astros. A forearm strain suffered in 2021 limited him to just eight starts in 2022, but he still worked to an impressive 2.27 ERA in those handful of appearances.
  • Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign. After missing the bulk of three-straight seasons, Severino returned to make 19 starts last year, working to a 3.18 ERA. A lat strain sidelined him for two months of the season, but the Yankees were unsurprisingly happy to exercise the $15MM club option they held over the 28-year-old ahead of the 2023 season. While the significant injury history won’t help, a full season of ~30 starts of his typically excellent output could set Severino up for a big payday next winter. “Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yankees are depending even more so on a healthy season from Severino after the news that Frankie Montas will miss the majority of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

Latest On The Astros’ Outfielders

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Roster battles are few and far between for the defending champion Astros this spring, but manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that there’ll be a bit of competition in center field between Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick over the next six weeks.

“There’s competition … We hope [Jake] Meyers bounces back from the injury. We’ll see how Chas [McCormick] looks. There’s room for everybody to play. As you know, I’ll play everybody,” Baker said.

McCormick would surely have the inside running to get the bulk of the center field reps this year. The 27-year-old slashed .245/.332/.407 with 14 home runs in his second big league season, while putting up 5 Outs Above Average in about 450 center field innings.

Meyers, on the other hand, hit just .227/.269/.313 with a single home run over 160 plate appearances last season. To be fair to Meyers, he did only return from a torn labrum in June and hit a much better .260/.323/.438 during his rookie season in 2021. Like McCormick, Meyers has put up strong numbers in center field, earning 7 Outs Above Average in around 400 innings at the position last year.

With Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez lined up to handle the work in the corner spots, center field is the only outfield spot with any sort of question mark around it. McCormick would have to be the favorite, but if a full, healthy off-season allows Meyers to regain some of his offensive numbers this spring it could give the Astros some positive selection headaches heading into the new season.

One other player that figures to feature in the outfield mix is veteran Michael Brantley. The Astros inked the 35-year-old to a one-year, $12MM deal this winter, bringing him back for his fifth season in Houston. Brantley’s always hit when he’s been on the field, as evidenced by his .306/.368/.464 line in four seasons with the Astros, but staying on the field has been a problem for the veteran. He went down in June and required season-ending shoulder surgery, limiting his contribution to just 64 games last year. Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Brantley’s recovery, and there seems no guarantee that he’s ready to go for opening day.

“It’s still day-to-day. He’s hitting, fielding ground balls, moving well, not feeling much pain. He’s on course. I think it’s going to go down to the wire, but I think it’s going to be close,” Brown said (Twitter).

While that doesn’t rule him out of being available for the Astros first series of the season, it is a slight step back from January when the expectation was Brantley would be ready for opening day. Brantley spent about half of his 64 games in the outfield last year, and when fit he figures to give Houston a left field/DH option in addition to Alvarez and Tucker.

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