The Opener: Gray, Maeda, Twins, FA Market
After a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Gray, Maeda finalizing deals:
It was reported earlier this morning that the Cardinals are finalizing a deal with veteran right-hander Sonny Gray worth a reported $75MM over three years. That leaves Gray poised to become the second free agent who placed in the top 10 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list to sign this offseason following righty Aaron Nola, who re-upped with the Phillies earlier in the month. Gray isn’t the only free agent starter in the process of finalizing a deal, however. Per reports last night, the Tigers inking veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda to a two-year deal worth $24MM. That contract is pending a physical, which is expected to happen later today. Both Gray and Maeda will require 40-man roster spots upon their deals with St. Louis and Detroit becoming official, though both clubs have spots available meaning no corresponding transaction will be necessary to finalize either pact.
2. How will the Twins address their rotation?
Both Gray and Maeda pitched for the Twins in 2023. Maeda provided the club with 104 1/3 innings of back-of-the-rotation production following his return from Tommy John surgery this year, posting a 4.23 ERA and 4.02 FIP over 21 appearances (20 starts). Gray, meanwhile, had a career year with Minnesota and posted a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. The return of right-hander Chris Paddack to the rotation in 2024 should help alleviate the losses, though 25-year-old youngster Louie Varland, who posted a 4.63 ERA and 5.02 FIP in 68 major league innings this year, likely represents the club’s internal fifth starter.
Given that, an external addition who can join Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Paddack in the rotation could make plenty of sense. While the club is expected to reduce payroll this offseason, the club’s interest in a reunion with Maeda prior to the righty signing in Detroit suggests Minnesota can afford to add a mid-tier free agent arm this offseason. There’s plenty such starters available, with Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, and Mike Clevinger among the names expected to fall in a similar tier to Maeda this winter.
3. When will the hitting, relief markets start heating up?
As the hot stove has begun to heat up, the focus has largely been on starting pitching. Maeda and Gray join Nola, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn as free agent rotation arms who have signed big league deals this month. Meanwhile, right-hander Reynaldo Lopez inked a three-year deal with an Atlanta club who intends to stretch the reliever out for a rotation audition of his own come Spring Training.
All of that buzz on the rotation market stands in sharp contrast to the position player and relief markets, which have been relatively quiet in the offseason’s first month. Joe Jimenez‘s three-year deal with the Braves on the first day of free agency still represents the most significant relief contract of the offseason, while infielder Paul DeJong‘s one-year agreement with the White Sox represents the lone positional signing of significance of the winter to this point.
NPB’s Yokohama BayStars Post Shota Imanaga
The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball formally posted top left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League clubs on Monday, per the Kyodo News. It’s been known for months that Imanaga would be posted for big league clubs, but the timing of the move wasn’t clear until last Wednesday, when MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Imanaga would be posted today.
Once MLB approves the posting and notifies teams that Imanaga is indeed available (a formality), that will kick off a 45-day negotiation window. One week ago today, NPB’s Orix Buffaloes posted ace and reigning three-time Sawamura Award winner (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) Yoshinobu Yamamoto for MLB clubs. His negotiation window officially commenced the following morning. Imanaga will likely follow an identical pattern, with his negotiation window formally opening Tuesday morning.
Imanaga, who turned 30 in September, just wrapped up a second straight season with a sub-3.00 ERA and his third in the past five seasons. He tossed 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the BayStars in 2023, punching out 29.5% of his opponents against a sensational 3.8% walk rate. Since 2019, he’s posted a collective 2.79 earned run average, 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate. A 2022 no-hitter headlines that five-year run of excellence.
While he may not bet the unusually young power arm that his countryman Yamamoto is, Imanaga is nonetheless viewed as a potential mid-rotation starter in MLB. Back in September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that he’d added some life to his fastball and was sitting in the 92-93 mph range. He also has a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider, as examined in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions
Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a posting/release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).
To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six-plus weeks.
Giants Re-Sign Cole Waites To Minor League Contract
The Giants have brought back Cole Waites on a minor league contract, according to the team’s official transactions page. Waites was non-tendered last week, and the new minor league pact means that the Giants won’t need to use a 40-man roster spot on the 25-year-old righty.
Waites had Tommy John surgery in mid-September, making it all but certain he’ll miss the 2024 season unless he can complete rehab in time for an inning or two right at the end of the regular-season schedule. The transactions page didn’t indicate that Waites’ deal is anything more than a standard one-year minors contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising if it was a two-year deal or if the Giants signed him to another type of extension at some point in 2024 once they get a better read on how his rehab is progressing.
An 18th-round pick for the Giants in the 2019 draft, Waites has appeared in the big leagues in each of the last two seasons, totaling eight innings over 10 games and a 6.75 ERA with six walks and strikeouts apiece. Waites fits the clasic profile of the hard-throwing but wild reliever, with a 15.32% walk rate over his 103 career minor league innings but also a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s (and can reach 100mph). When Waites has been able to find the plate, he has been deadly — he has a 37.61% strikeout rate against minor league hitters.
The potential is obvious if Waites can pair that heater with even average control, though his injury history now adds another obstacle to his future. Waites also missed a big chunk of the 2021 season due to knee surgery, and between his injuries and the canceled 2020 minor league season, he has played in only 102 games (and thrown 103 innings) as a professional.
Angels Sign Adam Kolarek
The Angels announced (via their X feed) that they have signed left-hander Adam Kolarek to a one-year contract worth $900K. Kolarek elected to become a free agent after finishing the season in the Braves’ minor league system.
While $900K isn’t much by MLB standards, it is somewhat surprising that Kolarek landed a guaranteed deal at all given his shaky results and even a lack of overall big league playing time over the last three seasons. That said, the Angels were thin on left-handed relief pitching, so locking in Kolarek provides one initial step over what might be a wider-scale revamp of a bullpen that struggled badly last season.
Since Opening Day 2021, Kolarek (who turns 35 in January) has thrown 32 2/3 innings over 32 appearances with the A’s, Dodgers, and Mets, with a 4.58 ERA. Most of those struggles were contained to his 2021-22 seasons in Oakland, but even when posting better results in 2023, Kolarek still found himself as a sudden journeyman.
Kolarek signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers last winter and was designated for assignment after just a lone MLB appearance with the team in June. He chose to remain with the organization after being outrighted off the 40-man roster, and was then dealt to the Mets at the deadline and tossed 4 2/3 innings in a New York uniform. Another DFA soon followed, and this time Kolarek did elect free agency rather than accepting another outright assignment, and he then landed with the Braves on a minors deal without seeing any time on the Major League roster in September.
As noted, Kolarek did show flickers of a turnaround in 2023. He didn’t allow any runs (and only two hits and walk) over his six total MLB innings last year, and he had a 3.80 ERA in 42 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level. That minor league ERA comes with the significant red flag of a 16.13% walk rate, as the control problems that hampered Kolarek in 2021-22 continued to be a problem.
The walks have crept up on Kolarek at earlier stages of his career, yet he got things under control during his prime years of 2018-20. The lefty posted a 3.07 ERA in 108 1/3 innings for the Rays and Dodgers during those years, highlighted a World Series ring with Los Angeles in 2020.
While his results have been inconsistent, the one constant throughout Kolarek’s career has been his ability to induce ground balls. Since the start of the 2017 season, only five pitchers with more than 140 innings pitched have a higher grounder rate than Kolarek’s elite 63.9% total.
Reds Sign Reiver Sanmartin, Alex Blandino To Minor League Deals
The Reds signed left-hander Reiver Sanmartin and infielder Alex Blandino to minor league deals within the last week, according to Cincinnati’s official transactions page. Sanmartin was assigned to Triple-A Louisville, while Blandino was assigned to Double-A Chattanooga.
Sanmartin was cut loose by the Reds just prior to the non-tender deadline, and he’ll now return to the team while no longer part of the 40-man roster. It doesn’t seem like he’ll be available for most or even all of the 2024 season after undergoing UCL surgery back in July, if that surgery was indeed a standard Tommy John procedure. However, Sanmartin’s prognosis improves if he underwent an internal brace procedure, which carries a more fluid but perhaps significantly shorter recovery timeline depending of the nature of the injury. Should Sanmartin fall within that 6-9 month range for a brace surgery, he might be ready to go for the start of Spring Training.
There wasn’t any mention whether or not Sanmartin’s minor league deal was for one or two years, as the longer deal would’ve hinted at a longer recovery. Such two-year pacts at either the minor league or Major League levels aren’t uncommon for pitchers recovering from major arm surgeries, as teams get to lock up a player with the acknowledgement that they’ll miss most or all of that first year. Just earlier today, the Red Sox inked a two-year minor league pact with Wyatt Mills, who had TJ surgery last July.
Sanmartin came to the Reds from the Yankees as part of the Sonny Gray trade in January 2019. Making his MLB debut in 2021 and then appearing for Cincinnati in each of the last three seasons, Sanmartin has a 5.77 ERA over 82 2/3 innings in the Show, working primarily as a reliever. With underwhelming walk and strikeout rates, Sanmartin’s 53.5% groundball rate is a highlight, though batters have been fortunate with a .339 BABIP against Sanmartin’s grounder-heavy approach. The 27-year-old southpaw has had better strikeout and control numbers down on the farm, en route to a 3.39 ERA over 446 career minor league innings.
Blandino is another former Red, as he was selected 29th overall by the team in the 2014 draft and then played all three of his MLB seasons (2018-21) in Cincinnati. However, a torn ACL and other injuries hampered his time in the big leagues, as Blandino had a penchant for drawing walks but not much else over the course of a .226/.339/.291 slash line in 279 plate appearances. After the Reds outrighted Blandino following the 2021 season, he spent some time in the minors with the Giants and Mariners, and his only pro experience in 2023 was playing with Team Nicaragua in the World Baseball Classic.
The 31-year-old Blandino has a lot of experience at both middle infield positions and at third base, plus a handful of appearances as a first baseman, corner outfielder, and even four mop-up pitching appearances in blowouts during the 2021 campaign. This versatility makes him a useful depth option to have on hand in the minors, especially since the Reds’ influx of young star prospects coming to the majors has thinned out the position-player ranks in their farm system.
Tigers Re-Sign Garrett Hill
The Tigers and right-hander Garrett Hill have reunited, as Hill’s MLB.com profile page indicates that he signed a new minor league deal earlier this week. It’s a quick reunion for the two sides, as the Tigers just non-tendered Hill last week to open up some space on their 40-man roster.
A 26th-round pick for Detroit in the 2018 draft, Hill made his MLB debut in 2022 on the fourth of July and started his first eight Major League games before moving into the bullpen. The result was a respectable 4.03 ERA over 60 1/3 innings, even if a .247 BABIP helped cover up for some uninspiring secondary numbers. Hill’s fortune turned last season, as he was tagged for a 9.19 ERA over 15 2/3 relief innings in the majors and even a 6.02 ERA in 46 1/3 frames for Triple-A Toledo. While Hill’s control had only been decent earlier in his career, walks became an increasingly big problem in 2023, with a 14.3% walk rate over his time in Toledo.
Hill also spent little over a month on the Triple-A injured list, so it was a tough year all around for the righty. He’ll look for a fresh start in his age-28 season, and it makes sense why the Tigers would want to keep Hill in the fold. Beyond his swingman potential, Hill has consistently missed a lot of bats over his minor league career — even amidst his struggles, Hill still posted a 28.7% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2023. That strikeout potential has yet to translate at the big league level, but there’s no risk for Detroit in bringing him back for another look on a minors contract.
Braves Sign Andrew Velazquez, Ben Bowden To Minors Contracts
The Braves have signed infielder Andrew Velazquez, and left-hander Ben Bowden to minor league contracts, as per both players’ MLB.com profile pages. For Velazquez, it’s a return to the organization, as he elected free agency after being outrighted off the Braves’ 40-man roster at the start of November.
His trip through the market will now take him back to Atlanta, as Velazquez is still seeking his first big league appearance in a Braves uniform. The Braves claimed Velazquez off waivers from the Angels in early September but he played exclusively at Triple-A Gwinnett, as Atlanta never had an injury situation develop that would’ve gotten Velasquez a look on the Major League roster.
This same type of depth role probably awaits Velazquez in 2024, though since the Braves dealt Nicky Lopez to the White Sox, Velazquez might have a better shot at claiming a bench spot. Both glove-first players, Lopez is projected for a $3.9MM arbitration salary and Velazquez $740K, though due to the non-tender, Velazquez isn’t on any kind of guaranteed salary as a minor league signing.
The 29-year-old Velazquez has appeared in each of the last six Major League seasons, hitting .189/.244/.293 over 624 plate appearances. Most of that action (349 PA) came with the Angels in 2022, when Velazquez ended up assuming mostly everyday shortstop duties when David Fletcher fell out of favor with the team. While he didn’t produce anything at the plate, Velasquez was a big help on defense, with +11 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average, and a +3.0 UZR/150 in 906 innings at shortstop.
However, his defensive numbers were all deep into the minuses over 233 1/3 innings last year, as Velazquez appeared in only 54 games and spent most of 2023 in Triple-A. It could be just a small sample size issue, though given Velazquez’s lackluster offense, he needs to be at least an above-average glove to get him any chance of sticking as a big league backup. In terms of versatility, Velasquez has played mostly shortstop, with some time at second base and center field, and a handful of appearances at third base and left field earlier in his career.
Bowden’s MLB resume consists of 35 2/3 relief innings over 39 appearances with the Rockies in 2021. A second-round pick for Colorado in the 2016 draft, Bowden has posted a lot of strikeouts during his minor league career, yet also a lot of walks and home runs. Spending most of his minor league time in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League hasn’t helped in that regard, though Bowden also gave up eight homers in 52 1/3 innings pitching with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate in 2023 (with a 4.64 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, and 13.6% walk rate).
The Phillies, Giants, and Rays have all gotten looks at Bowden after Tampa first claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in April 2022, so the southpaw’s ability to miss bats is still a point of interest for clubs. Atlanta now becomes the latest team to see if Bowden can harness his control enough to become a viable option for the Major League bullpen.
Red Sox Sign Wyatt Mills To Two-Year Minor League Deal
The Red Sox have signed right-hander Wyatt Mills to a minor league contract covering both the 2024 and 2025 seasons, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports (X link). The length of the deal reflects Mills’ health situation, as he underwent Tommy John surgery last July and may not pitch at all during the 2024 season.
Mills has a 6.21 ERA over 42 career innings in the majors, all with the Mariners and Royals during the 2021-22 seasons. While the early returns on his big league career have been uninspiring, Mills has a 3.25 ERA, 32.06% strikeout rate, and grounder rates usually over the 50% mark over his 188 1/3 innings in the minors.
Working out of the bullpen for all but one of his 155 games in the minors, Mills has some interesting potential as a bullpen arm, which is why both Kansas City and Boston have acquired the righty in trades during his young career. Mills went to K.C. as part of the Carlos Santana swap with the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline, while the Red Sox then picked Mills up in a deal last winter.
Unfortunately for Mills, he has yet to throw an official pitch as a member of the Red Sox organization. He developed elbow inflammation during Spring Training and was sidelined for months before it was ultimately decided that Tommy John surgery was necessary. He did earn a full year of MLB service time for spending the season on the big league injured list, yet that’s small consolation considering the injury will now cost Mills (who turns 29 in January) possibly two full years of his career.
Mills wasn’t yet eligible for salary arbitration, but the Red Sox non-tendered him anyway last week to remove him from the 40-man roster. It’s safe to assume a handshake deal might’ve been in place to bring Mills back so quickly after he was non-tendered, and the Sox will now get to continue overseeing his TJ rehab and see what Mills can still bring to the table in 2025. It’s not out of the question that he can bank at least some minor league innings in late 2024, since as a reliever, Mills won’t need to rebuild his arm to quite the same extent that a starter would when coming back from a Tommy John procedure.
Angels Sign Charles Leblanc To Minor League Deal
The Angels have signed infielder Charles Leblanc to a minor league deal, per the transaction tracker on MLB.com. It’s unclear if the deal includes an invite to spring training.
Leblanc, 27, was a fourth-round pick by the Rangers in the 2016 draft. After spending six seasons at second and third base in Texas’s minor league system, Leblanc signed on with the Marlins on a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season. It didn’t take long for him to break into the big leagues with his new organization, as Miami called him up just before the trade deadline that July. Leblanc primarily played second base in the majors, though he did spend time at both first and third base as well. He did fairly well for himself at the dish in a bench role, slashing .263/.320/.404 in 169 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 104, though a 31.4% strikeout rate and a .374 BABIP both stood out as potential red flags.
Those concerns surely contributed to the Marlins designating Leblanc for assignment back in January, a move that cleared space on the 40-man roster for then-freshly signed infielder Jean Segura. Leblanc cleared outright waivers and remained in the Marlins organization for the 2023 campaign, spending the entire year at the Triple-A level. He once again split time between first, second, and third base and hit fairly well in 94 games at the level, slashing .253/.384/.423 in 370 trips to the plate with an eye-catching 16.5% walk rate. Following the 2023 season, Leblanc was once again eligible for minor league free agency, allowing him to sign on with the Halos ahead of the 2024 campaign.
Looking ahead to next season, Leblanc could prove to be a valuable piece of non-roster infield depth for the Angels. The club lost Gio Urshela to free agency earlier this month, and while Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, and Luis Rengifo could form a solid trio of young infielders for the club, Anthony Rendon has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and Brandon Drury profiles as a likely trade candidate if the Angels look to retool with franchise face Shohei Ohtani likely headed elsewhere in free agency this winter. Given those question marks, it’s certainly possible that there’s a path back to the majors available for Leblanc in Anaheim next year.
Mariners Sign Rangel Ravelo To Minor League Deal
The Mariners have reportedly signed first baseman Rangel Ravelo to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per reporter Francys Romero.
Ravelo, 31, was a sixth-round pick by the White Sox in the 2010 draft. He made his major league debut with the Cardinals in 2019 and appeared in parts of two seasons with the club, slashing a combined .189/.250/.351 in 84 plate appearances. After initially signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers ahead of the 2021 season, Ravelo departed stateside ball to play for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Orix Buffaloes in Japan after slashing .407/.504/.758 in 26 games with LA’s Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City.
Unfortunately, Ravelo’s two-year stint in Japan did not go well, as he hit just .169/.308/.231 in 78 trips to the plate with the Buffaloes. He returned to stateside ball in 2023 after signing a minor league deal with the Padres last winter. While he did not appear in the big leagues, Ravelo hit well in 59 games with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, producing a .310/.428/.473 slash line across 258 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Ravelo’s 2023 campaign was evidently cut short by injury as he was placed on the IL near the end of June and spent the remainder of the season on the shelf.
The addition of Ravelo provides the Mariners with some non-roster depth at first base and DH after the club elected earlier this month to non-tender slugger Mike Ford, who took the lion’s share of DH at-bats for Seattle last year. While Ravelo has largely played first base throughout his lengthy professional career, it’s worth noting that he’s seen occasional playing time in left field in recent years, making him at least a plausible depth option for a club that figures to mix and match between the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty, Dylan Moore, and Taylor Trammell in left field next season as things stand.