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The Opener: Swanson, Blue Jays, Padres

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Coming off the heels of a day where we saw another major signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world throughout the day.

1. Swanson is the last man standing.

For a few days now, Dansby Swanson has been the last of the four star shortstops that hit the free agent market this offseason to remain available. Now, with lefty Carlos Rodon headed to the Yankees on a six-year deal, Swanson is the last top-tier free agent at any position. He’s one of just two players still on the market who ranked in the top 20 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents at the start of the offseason, joining No. 15 Andrew Benintendi. Swanson appears to be in a good position, with teams such as the Cubs, Twins, and Red Sox, who missed out on the other top-of-market free agents they’ve pursued, potentially in the market along with the incumbent Braves. MLBTR readers voted the Cubs, Braves and Twins (in that order) as the likeliest landing spots for Swanson in a poll yesterday.

2. When will the Blue Jays look to move a catcher?

The Blue Jays have been open to dealing one of their catchers throughout the offseason, and with the free agent catching market thinning out by the day, the Jays’ catchers are the top remaining options on either the trade or free-agent markets. Most recently, Omar Narvaez agreed to a deal to join the Mets yesterday, and Mike Zunino landed with the Guardians just a few days before. With Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges now among the best remaining options available behind the plate, it would be no wonder if catching-needy teams began to explore a trade with Toronto more aggressively. The Cubs are in need of a catcher to pair with Yan Gomes after Willson Contreras left for St. Louis, while the Astros were a finalist for Contreras and had interest in a trade for Sean Murphy, suggesting they’re a candidate to weigh a trade with the Blue Jays as well. Perhaps the most interesting partner would be the Diamondbacks, who were reportedly interested in Murphy and have a handful of big-league ready, lefty-hitting outfielders who could provide some much-needed balance to a lineup which is overwhelmingly right-handed.

3. Will San Diego’s aggressiveness continue?

San Diego has been one of the league’s most aggressive team for years now, and that hasn’t changed this offseason as they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal last week. Still, it appears possible they could make even more additions to impact the team before Opening Day. The Padres, for instance, were reported finalists for righty Chris Bassitt, who ultimately signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year deal. It was a pursuit that made sense for San Diego; despite the strong trio of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, the back of the rotation — which currently consists of Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon — has question marks. An additional starter, such as Nathan Eovaldi or Corey Kluber, could bump one of them to the bullpen and solidify the rotation. The Friars also appear to have interest in adding a corner outfield bat, with Jose Azocar currently projected for regular work in left field. However, recent trades have depleted San Diego’s once-stellar farm system, and Roster Resource already projects the Padres over the second tier of luxury tax for 2023, complicating their path to upgrades. Still, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again he should never be counted out of making another major move to improve his club.

Phillies Sign Taijuan Walker

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Dec. 16: The Phillies have announced the signing.

Dec. 6: One day after landing Trea Turner on a stunning 11-year contract, the Phillies have bolstered their rotation by agreeing to a four-year deal with free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo adds that Walker, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be guaranteed $72MM on the deal.

Taijuan Walker

Walker, 30, steps into a deep and talented rotation headlined by co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. He’ll join lefty Ranger Suarez in the third and fourth spots of a rotation whose fifth starter has yet to be determined. Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this offseason that he aimed to sign one veteran starter and leave a starting job open for one of the Phillies’ many in-house options — a list that currently includes left-hander Bailey Falter and top prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry.

The Phils could yet add some further depth, but based on Dombrowski’s earlier comments and the fact that they’ve committed a combined $372MM to Turner and Walker in the past day, it seems unlikely that another high-profile addition is in store. In the wake of agreeing to terms with Turner, Dombrowski voiced a desire to add a mid-rotation arm and to add a back-end reliever — ideally without signing a free agent who’d turned down a qualifying offer. The terms of Walker’s four-year deal have exceeded even the most bullish of expectations, but he nevertheless checks the former of those two boxes, ostensibly setting the stage for the Phillies to shift their sights to the bullpen market.

Walker, a once-elite pitching prospect who pitched just 14 innings from 2017-18 due to shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery, has quickly shaken the “injury-prone” label once associated with his name. Since signing a one-year deal to return to the Mariners in advance of the 2020 season, the 6’4″, 235-pound righty has made a nearly full slate of starts: 11 games in the 60-game 2020 season followed by consecutive seasons of 29 starts with the Mets in 2021-22.

Along the way, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate in a total of 369 2/3 innings. While he’s hardly a flamethrower, Walker sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer and complements that heater with a four-pitch mix of secondary offerings: splitter, sinker, slider and a more seldom-used curveball. He’s only averaged a bit more than 5 1/3 innings per start in recent years, but some of that could well be a function of the Mets preferring to keep him healthy.

While many teams are reluctant to allow starters to turn a lineup over three times, Walker’s third-time-through-the-order splits are actually fairly strong. Since 2020, when facing an opponent for the third time in a game, Walker has yielded only a .232/.303/.391 batting line. That translates to a .303 wOBA that’s tied with one of his new rotation-mates, Nola, for 37th among 132 starting pitchers in that three-year period.

Solid as Walker’s past few seasons have been, the $72MM guarantee he secured on his new contract remains a fairly eye-popping number. It’s been a bull market for starting pitchers thus far, to say the least, but an $18MM annual value over a four-year term represents a seismic step forward in the market for mid-rotation arms. Walker undoubtedly benefited from his relative youth and a lack of a qualifying offer, but guarantees of this size for a pitcher of this caliber, while not unprecedented, are quite rare. Moreover, while we’ve seen starters of this ilk land guarantees in this range in the past — the Royals signed Ian Kennedy for $70MM, and the Marlins inked Wei-Yin Chen for $80MM — they’ve typically been spread out over a five-year term. Precedent for an AAV of this magnitude, over a relatively long-term deal, for this caliber of pitcher is scarce.

None of that is a knock on Walker, who’s pitched well in his three years since returning from that pair of seasons lost to injury. And, if Walker can continue to pitch at a pace commensurate with his 2022 output in particular, he’ll end up justifying the deal. That said, he’s reached 150 innings only four times in his Major League career and only twice logged a sub-4.00 ERA in a 162-game campaign, so expecting a replica of his 2022 output — particularly in light of a shaky batted-ball profile — would be quite optimistic.

The Phillies, however, needed some stability with Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Noah Syndergaard all reaching free agency, and the prices for arms this winter have been strong. Eflin, for instance, landed a $13.33MM AAV in a three-year deal with the low-budget Rays of all teams, and did so on the heels of a season in which he pitched just 75 2/3 innings. Gibson, who turned 35 in October and yielded a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for the Phillies, still secured a $10MM guarantee on a one-year deal in Baltimore. The price of average-or-better innings — and the price for pitchers who can reliably provide those innings — looks to have increased in the early stages of the newly brokered 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement.

From a payroll vantage point, adding Walker will boost the Phillies to a projected $223.5MM in bottom-line payroll next year, per Roster Resource (assuming an even distribution of the salaries). Moreover, Walker’s $18MM AAV will push the Phillies into luxury-tax territory for what’ll now be a second straight season. They currently project at $235MM, just $2MM north of the $233MM barrier, but it seems fair to expect further additions will be on the horizon — in the bullpen at the very least. As a second-time offender, the Phils will pay a 30% overage on the first $20MM by which they exceed that $233MM line, and they’ll be on the hook for a 42.5% penalty for any overages between $20-40MM.

That seems to matter little to owner John Middleton, who just saw his Phillies fall to the World Series champion Astros in a competitive six-game affair. With Nola set to become a free agent next winter, the 2023 campaign could be the last time he and Wheeler comprise the dynamic one-two punch atop the Philadelphia rotation. Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 season, and J.T. Realmuto will turn 32 before Opening Day 2023. The time to win in Philadelphia is now, and in very on-brand fashion, their aggressive owner and similarly aggressive president of baseball operations are making high-priced, straightforward upgrades via the free-agent market to bolster the franchise’s hopes while this elite core is still together and still in its prime.

Mariners, Tommy Milone Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have agreed to a minor league contract with Tommy Milone, according to Triple-A Tacoma’s director of media relations Paul Braverman (Twitter link). The veteran lefty also spent the 2022 campaign in the Mariners organization.

Milone, who turns 36 in February, got into seven MLB games for Seattle this past season. He tossed 16 2/3 innings in low-leverage relief, allowing 10 runs with six walks and five strikeouts. Milone spent a greater chunk of the year at Tacoma, where he started 10 of 11 outings. Over 40 1/3 innings, he provided the Rainiers a 2.68 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk percentage.

A 10th-round pick in the 2008 draft, the USC product has spent a decade and a half in the professional ranks. That’s largely on the back of stellar command, as Milone consistently pounds the strike zone. He doesn’t throw hard or miss many bats, but his reliable control has earned him plenty of depth work as a journeyman.

Milone has gotten to the majors in 12 straight years, suiting up with Washington, Oakland, Minnesota, Milwaukee, the Mets, Seattle, Baltimore, Atlanta and Toronto. He has a 4.60 ERA over 944 1/3 innings in the majors, while he owns a quality 3.27 mark through nine years at Triple-A.

Rays, Brendan McKay Agree To Two-Year Minor League Deal

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The Rays are in agreement with left-hander Brendan McKay on a two-year minor league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Tampa Bay has also agreed to traditional one-year minor league deals with catcher Nick Dini and reliever Colten Brewer.

McKay is a former fourth overall pick who has spent his entire career with the Rays. A two-way superstar in college, he increasingly focused on pitching as a professional. An excellent strike-thrower, he moved quickly through the minor leagues and reached the majors by 2019. McKay started 11 of 13 games during his rookie season, showing promising strikeout and walk marks through 49 innings.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to throw a single major league pitch in the four years since then. He missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. The rehab from that procedure kept him out of action until late June 2021. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, McKay suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending. He was then diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome and underwent surgery to correct that issue last November.

McKay spent most of 2022 on the injured list recovering from the TOS procedure. He set out on a rehab assignment in mid-July and spent his allotted 30-day window pitching back to Triple-A. The Rays then formally reinstated McKay from the IL but kept him in Durham on an optional assignment. A few days later, he suffered a UCL injury while pitching with the Bulls. Tampa Bay announced in September he’d require Tommy John surgery, an injury that’ll cost him the entire 2023 season.

At the end of this year, the Rays outrighted McKay off their 40-man roster. They released him the following week, a quirk of the minor league service system. He’s spent parts of six seasons in the minors, and he’ll have reached a seventh in 2023. After the ’23 campaign, he’d have qualified for minor league free agency if not added to the 40-man roster anyhow. By releasing him and subsequently re-signing him to a two-year deal, Tampa Bay can keep him in the organization for the 2024 season without a 40-man spot, giving them a chance to reevaluate him after a hopefully successful rehab.

Brewer, 30, pitched in the majors in four straight seasons from 2018-21. He split that time between the Padres and Red Sox, with his most extended work coming for Boston in 2019. The righty has tallied 91 innings over 81 major league appearances, working to a 5.04 ERA. Brewer signed with the Royals for the 2022 campaign. He spent the season at Triple-A Omaha, pitching to a 4.76 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. He struck out a quarter of opponents with a higher than average 10.7% walk rate.

Dini has sparse major league experience, having suited up 20 times for the Royals in 2019. The right-handed hitting catcher played in the Kansas City organization through the 2021 campaign, after which he signed with the Mets. Dini spent the season at Triple-A Syracuse, putting up a .232/.323/.446 line with 11 home runs in 201 trips to the plate.

Royals Sign Cody Poteet, Brooks Kriske To Minor League Deals

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The Royals announced four minor league contracts this afternoon. Righties Cody Poteet and Brooks Kriske are joining the organization, while minor league free agent outfielder Seuly Matias returns for an eighth year with the franchise. Kansas City also confirmed their previously reported non-roster agreement with catcher Jakson Reetz.

Poteet is the most notable of the bunch, as he’s picked up some swing work at the major league level over the past couple seasons. A career-long member of the Marlins, he debuted midway through the 2021 season. The righty made seven starts that year, allowing just under five earned runs per nine innings. Poteet generated decent swing-and-miss rates and averaged just under 94 MPH on his heater as a starter, but he struggled with walks and home runs in that limited look. His debut season was cut short by a right knee sprain.

Injuries were again a story in 2022, as the UCLA product missed the bulk of the year with elbow trouble. When healthy, he was primarily relegated to long relief work, starting just two of his 12 outings. Poteet tossed 28 frames over that stretch, putting up a decent 3.86 ERA but seeing his strikeout rate dip to 18.4%. His velocity ticked up in the shorter stints, as he averaged 94.9 MPH on his four-seam fastball. Poteet relied more frequently on his changeup, particularly against left-handed batters, while turning to a slider more often against righties.

At season’s end, Miami ran Poteet through outright waivers. He went unclaimed and elected minor league free agency, and he now joins the second organization of his career. The 28-year-old adds a depth option for either the rotation or long relief to the upper levels. He owns a 4.45 ERA over 58 2/3 MLB frames and a 3.81 mark with an 18.8% strikeout rate in parts of seven minor league seasons.

Kriske, 29 in February, has 16 MLB appearances to his name split between the Yankees and Orioles. Those came from 2020-21, with the reliever allowing 25 runs in 15 innings. A USC product, Kriske made the jump to Japan last offseason. He inked a deal with NPB’s Yokohama BayStars and split the season between the highest level and their minor league affiliate. In 18 appearances with the BayStars, Kriske posted a 2.57 ERA over 21 innings. He struck out an excellent 29.2% of batters faced but walked 14.6% of his opponents.

Over parts of four minor league campaigns, most of which were spent in the New York system, Kriske owns a 2.34 ERA. He has a stellar 33.3% strikeout rate in lower levels. Control issues have been a problem throughout his career, as he’s walked 10.7% of minor league hitters. He’s shown the ability to miss plenty of bats against high-level opponents though.

Matias was once a highly regarded prospect, thanks largely to his right-handed power potential. He’s limited to the corner outfield and has dealt with serious swing-and-miss issues throughout his career, with those concerns stalling his move up the ladder. The 24-year-old hit .225/.330/.424 in 414 plate appearances with Double-A Northwest Arkansas this year. Matias connected on 16 home runs while striking out a third of the time. He has yet to reach the majors.

Astros Finalize Coaching Staff

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The Astros announced this evening they’ve finalized their coaching staff for the 2023 campaign. It’ll be Dusty Baker’s fourth season running the show as the Astros look to defend their World Series title.

One previously unreported addition is the tabbing of Tommy Kawamura as game planning coach (h/t to Mark Berman of Fox 26). Formerly a member of the team’s advance scouting department in the front office, Kawamura makes the jump to the dugout. It’s a newly-created position for the Astros that’ll presumably increase Baker’s ability to match up with the opposition.

The rest of the staff returns, most in their previous roles. Joe Espada is back for a sixth season as bench coach. Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker return as co-hitting coaches; Jason Kanzler will be their assistant hitting coach, his second season on staff. Bill Murphy and Josh Miller will split pitching coach duties for the second straight year. Gary Pettis and Omar López will serve as base coaches, with Dan Firova and Michael Collins also remaining on staff.

There’s a strong amount of continuity with the group, as they return in hopes of backing up their championship. Houston made some key front office changes at the start of the offseason, but the non-playing field staff is back completely intact with the addition of Kawamura.

Munetaka Murakami To Be Posted After 2025

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Japanese slugger and third baseman Munetaka Murakami recently signed a three-year deal with his team, the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball. According to a report from The Mainichi out of Japan, as relayed by Nick Groke of The Athletic, the contract stipulates that Murakami will be posted after those three seasons.

Murakami is currently just 22 years old, turning 23 in February. Despite that young age, he’s already hit 160 home runs over his four-plus seasons in NPB. He made a brief debut in the 2018 season when he was only 18 years of age, but has been a mainstay for the Swallows over the past four campaigns. In 553 games to this point, he has hit .281/.405/.583. His home run totals in those four seasons are 36, 28, 39 and then an incredible 56 in 2022. That last number broke Sadaharu Oh’s record for most home runs hit by a Japanese-born player in the league, which he set back in 1964. (Curaçao-born Wladimir Balentien has the overall record, hitting 60 homers in 2013.)

Japanese players in NPB have to accrue nine years of professional experience before they reach international free agency, allowing them to pursue opportunities in North America. Players who wish to make the jump before that point must request to be posted by their club. Generally, NPB clubs hang onto their players until late in the nine-year window of control before posting, meaning that many Japanese players don’t join the majors until they are midway through their careers. Seiya Suzuki was posted last year going into his age-28 season. Masataka Yoshida was posted this offseason going into his age-29 campaign. Kodai Senga was never posted as his NPB club, the SoftBank Hawks, have a policy against it. He’s joining the Mets for 2023 after he will turn 30 in January.

By negotiating this posting into his contract, Murakami will be able to come over after his age-25 season, which is the youngest he could be while still being able to earn a Major League contract on the open market. International players under 25 years of age and/or with fewer than six years of professional experience are considered “amateurs” rather than professionals under MLB’s international free agency rules and are thus subject to the “bonus pool” system, where each team has an MLB-mandated cap on how much it can spend on signing bonuses.

International “amateurs” can only agree to minor league deals and signing bonuses, whereas “professionals” like Suzuki, Yoshida and Senga (i.e. players 25 and older with six-plus years of pro experience) are free to sign Major League contracts for any length and dollar amount; for example, Shohei Ohtani came over to the Angels prior to his age-23 season, settling for a $2.3MM signing bonus and was unable to reach free agency until after 2023. Had he waited two more years, he could have immediately signed a nine-figure contract.

Murakami will have no such restrictions and will be able to secure a deal of any length or dollar amount, similar to Suzuki or Yoshida. However, he will be considerably younger than those players and perhaps have an even more impressive track record of success. His 160 home runs are already close to the 182 Suzuki hit in his NPB time and more than Yoshida’s 133. His 24% strikeout rate is a bit on the high side, though that’s inflated by a 31% rate in 2019 when he was just 19 years old. It’s declined in the three subsequent seasons, getting under 21% in 2022. It’s a similar story with his walk rate, which has gone from 12.5% in 2019, increasing to 19.3% in 2022. His final batting line in 2022 was .318/.458/.711.

FanGraphs gives Murakami a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, giving high praise for his work at the plate but firmly declaring that he won’t be able to stick at third base. They give a 30-grade to his feet and range and say that he will have to be moved to either left field, first base or designated hitter. Nonetheless, they still say that he would be considered one of the top five prospects in the sport if he were already in a team’s system and is a future star.

If he does sign with a major league team, the club would owe a fee to the Swallows under the MLB – NPB posting agreement. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee is on top of any dollars guaranteed to the player himself, and subsequent earning (e.g. performance incentives, contract options) are also subject to the posting system once they become guaranteed to the player.

Dodgers Acquire Yonny Hernandez

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The A’s announced they have traded infielder Yonny Hernandez to the Dodgers for cash considerations. Hernandez was designated for assignment earlier this week.

Hernandez, 25 in May, is a low-power, high-contact player. He has 55 games of MLB experience, including 43 with the Rangers last year and 12 with the Diamondbacks in 2022. He has a tepid .198/.293/.228 batting line in that time, but his 9.8% walk rate and 18.6% strikeout rate are both better than league average.

He spent most of 2022 in the minors, getting into 71 Triple-A games. He hit .241/.349/.324 in that time, walking in 11.7% of his plate appearances while striking out just 15.8% of the time. He also stole 30 bases, along with two more in the big leagues, something that is quite common for him. With the new rules in 2023 that encourage base stealing, that part of his game could become more valuable.

Hernandez brings a fair bit of defensive versatility to the table, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as left and center field. He only has five minor league home runs in his career and none in the majors, but he has a good eye at the plate and can move around the field. He also still has a pair of option years remaining, allowing the Dodgers to keep him in the minors if they so choose.

The A’s claimed him off waivers from the Diamondbacks in November but designated him for assignment when they made their signings of Jace Peterson and Aledmys Díaz official. The Dodgers’ infield took a few hits in recent months when Trea Turner and Hanser Alberto hit free agency, they declined their club option on Justin Turner and non-tendered Edwin Ríos. Hernandez will give them a versatile depth option as they build out their roster for the coming season.

Cubs Sign Brad Boxberger

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5:03pm: The Cubs have officially announced the signing.

11:03am: Boxberger will be paid a $2MM salary for the 2023 season, and his contract contains a $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout, MLBTR has learned.

10:31am: The Cubs have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty Brad Boxberger, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread). The Paragon Sports International client will be guaranteed $2.8MM on the deal.

Boxberger, 34, spent the past two seasons with the Brewers, who paid a $750K buyout on the veteran reliever rather than exercise a $3MM club option. At a combined $3.55MM between that buyout and the new Cubs deal, Boxberger will come out ahead and wind up earning more than if the Brewers had simply picked up the option.

Boxberger’s career looked to have hit a snag following a tough stretch in 2018-19 when he posted a combined 4.73 ERA and walked 13.8% of his opponents between the D-backs and Royals. That led to a minor league deal with the Marlins for the 2020 season, and he’s righted the ship nicely in the three years since. In that time, Boxberger carries a combined 3.13 ERA in 146 2/3 innings, and he’s piled up 57 holds and five saves along the way.

For the Brewers, Boxberger made 70 and 71 appearances across the past two seasons, pitching in 64 and 64 2/3 innings. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (93.1 mph average) but nonetheless managed a 31.2% strikeout rate in 2021 — although that mark dipped to a 25.4% in 2022 (still better than the league average). Boxberger relied heavily on called strikes over missed bats, however, as his 21.2% called-strike rate was the third-highest among 152 qualified relievers, while his 9.5% swinging-strike rate ranked as the 14th-lowest.

Given those trends, it’s fair to wonder whether further regression in terms of strikeout rate could be on the horizon, but even if that’s the case, Boxberger has been strong in terms of limiting hard contact over the past several seasons — particularly in 2022. Last year’s 86.4 mph average exit velocity (90th percentile) and 33.9% hard-hit rate (81st percentile) both ranked quite well among MLB pitchers, per Statcast.

The Cubs will be Boxberger’s seventh big league franchise, and he’ll slot into what was otherwise a generally inexperienced bullpen. Prior to this deal right-hander Rowan Wick was the only reliever on the Cubs’ roster who has even three years of Major League service time. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the Cubs to further pursue veteran additions, though if this signing and the Cubs’ recent history tells us anything, such additions could fall into a similar price range.

Chicago’s deal with Boxberger continues the team’s recent trend of prioritizing low-cost, one-year bullpen pickups rather than committing significant money to the bullpen. In the past three years, the Cubs have eschewed more prominent bullpen targets and and signed Mychal Givens ($5MM), David Robertson ($3.5MM), Daniel Norris ($1.75MM), Chris Martin ($2.5MM), Ryan Tepera ($800K), Brandon Workman ($3MM), Trevor Williams ($2.5MM), Dan Winkler ($750K) and Jonathan Holder ($750K) to one-year contracts. To the team’s credit, they’ve had some rather notable successes (Robertson, Martin, Tepera in particular), and even the deals that have missed haven’t really stung, given the relatively minimal nature of the guarantees.

On the other side of the coin, relying on one-year deals of this nature creates an annual need to patch together a bullpen in piecemeal fashion while simultaneously shining a light on some of the team’s struggles in developing bullpen arms who can be affordably controlled for years at a time. Righty Scott Effross was a notable exception, and the Cubs can hardly be faulted for flipping five years of control over him to the Yankees in a deadline trade for well-regarded prospect Hayden Wesneski, but in an ideal setting the Cubs wouldn’t need to set out into free agency in search of a handful of one-year bullpen stopgaps each winter.

Braves Unlikely To Trade Travis d’Arnaud

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Atlanta’s acquisition of catcher Sean Murphy in a three-team trade with the A’s and Brewers led to some speculation about the possibility of trading veteran Travis d’Arnaud, whom Murphy ousted as the starting catcher the moment he was acquired. However, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes that Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been “adamant” that he has no intention of trading d’Arnaud, whom the team values as a veteran leader — beyond his contributions with the bat and behind the plate.

Heading into the 2023 season, then, it appears as though Murphy and d’Arnaud will hold a timeshare behind the plate, with the universal designated hitter giving the Braves the opportunity to get both catchers in the lineup at times. If the plan is to get d’Arnaud, who slashed .268/.319/.472 with a career-high 18 home runs, into the lineup as a DH with any degree of regularity, that could bode well for Chadwick Tromp’s chances of making the roster as a third catcher in 2023.

The 27-year-old Tromp (28 in March) is the only other catcher on Atlanta’s 40-man roster now that Manny Pina and William Contreras have been traded (in the Murphy deal), though he does have a pair of minor league options remaining. Alternatively, the Braves could bring in a more experienced backup or simply carry just Murphy and d’Arnaud and run the risk of losing their DH on days when both are in the lineup.

Looking beyond the 2023 season, the Braves have d’Arnaud under club control, albeit via an $8MM team option with no buyout. That’s the same salary d’Arnaud is earning in 2023, and while the Braves were comfortable acquiring Murphy and his projected $3.5MM salary at a time when d’Arnaud was already guaranteed $8MM, it’d be a different story to pick up that option, knowing Murphy will be in line for a raise and that d’Arnaud would in all likelihood be ticketed for a lesser role than at the time he signed his current contract.

Still, even if the Braves prefer to try to work out a lower price for the 2024 season (and possibly beyond), O’Brien tweets that the Braves want d’Arnaud to be “around [the] team long term.” He further adds that in the wake of Freddie Freeman’s departure, d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson (who is, of course, a free agent himself at the moment) stepped into key leadership role. While dealing d’Arnaud would give the Braves some perhaps valuable breathing room between their currently projected $229.3MM luxury-tax ledger and the $233MM threshold for luxury penalization, that doesn’t appear to be an approach they’re considering.

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