Bryan Shaw, Nick Avila Won’t Make White Sox Opening Day Roster
March 28: The Giants informed reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, that Avila has been returned to them from the White Sox.
March 26: The White Sox have informed right-handers Bryan Shaw and Nick Avila that they won’t be part of the team’s Opening Day roster, James Fegan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). The two pitchers are at opposite ends of the experience spectrum, as Shaw is a 12-year MLB veteran in camp on a minor league contract, while Avila has yet to pitch beyond the Double-A level but was Chicago’s pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
Avila’s R5 status creates an immediate obstacle, since the Sox are required to keep him on their active roster for the entire 2023 season in order to fully obtain his rights. (Or, at least 90 days on the active roster and the rest of the time on the injured list, in the event of an injury.) If the White Sox don’t meet this criteria for Avila, they have to offer him back to the Giants, his original team, for $50K. Fegan writes that the Sox might still look for ways to keep Avila around, though outside of a proper trade agreement with the Giants or a suddenly injury to Avila, Chicago’s options are fairly limited.
The 25-year-old Avila had a stunning 1.14 ERA over 55 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels in 2022. It was the righty’s first full season as a reliever and he clearly took to the new role, also posting good strikeout and walk rates in addition to his minuscule ERA. MLB Pipeline ranks Avila as the 20th best prospect in Chicago’s farm system, giving his fastball and cutter both 60-grades and noting how Avila’s five-pitch arsenal gives him “a more diverse repertoire than most relievers.”
Avila couldn’t keep the production up in Spring Training, however, posting a 7.20 ERA over 10 innings of work even though his underlying metrics were still good. By contrast, Shaw had a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, but it wasn’t enough to land the 35-year-old a spot on the active roster.
Shaw isn’t an Article XX(B) free agent and thus didn’t have an automatic opt-out decision on March 25, though it is quite possible his minor league deal included some kind of different opt-out language. His impressive spring numbers might certainly convince another team to take a look at Shaw if he does end up leaving the White Sox organization (either by opt-out or release), and a reunion with the Guardians can’t be ruled out considering his longstanding ties to Cleveland.
Shaw spent the last two seasons (and seven of his 12 MLB seasons overall) in Cleveland, though he struggled to a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians bullpen in 2022. Apart from a solid 2021 campaign, Shaw hasn’t been very reliable for most of the last five seasons, as he has a 5.23 ERA over 268 1/3 innings since the start of the 2018 campaign.
With Avila and Shaw out of the running, Gregory Santos and Keynan Middleton appear to be the favorites to land the final spot in the otherwise set Chicago bullpen. Santos also came to the White Sox out of San Francisco’s farm system, and after being acquired from the Giants in a December trade, the righty has yet to allow a run over 8 1/3 spring innings. Middleton is in camp on a minor league deal, and has a rockier 6.00 ERA in nine frames of Cactus League work.
Yankees Release Rafael Ortega
Outfielder Rafael Ortega has requested a release from his minor league with the Yankees and that request has been granted, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. Ortega had an opt-out in his contract yesterday and has been informed that he won’t make the club’s roster. He is now a free agent.
The outfielder was competing for a bench job on the roster alongside players like Willie Calhoun and Estevan Florial. Earlier today, Marly Rivera of ESPN reported that Calhoun has been reassigned to minor league camp, while Florial and Ortega were each set to fly to New York as manager Aaron Boone said the final rosters decisions had yet to be made (Twitter links). It now appears that Ortega isn’t going to get a spot and will be free to pursue opportunities with all 30 clubs.
Ortega, 32 in May, is a veteran journeyman who appeared in 143 MLB games from 2012 to 2020 with the Rockies, Angels, Marlins and Braves. He finally got an extended stretch of play with the Cubs over the past two years, getting into 221 contests over that span. He hit 18 home runs and stole 24 bases as a Cub while walking in 10.6% of his plate appearances. His .265/.344/.408 batting line in that time amounted to a 108 wRC+, indicating he was 8% better than the league average hitter. He largely played center field for the Cubs but the advanced defensive metrics thought him a tad overmatched there, as he was given grades of -5 Defensive Runs Saved, -3 Outs Above Average and -5.4 from Ultimate Zone Rating in center over the past two seasons, though they liked his work in the corners well enough.
The Cubs could have retained Ortega via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $1.7MM. Instead, they non-tendered him, sending him to free agency. The Yankees figured to have Harrison Bader as their regular center fielder with Aaron Judge in right. Left field was a bit less certain as Aaron Hicks is coming off a couple of frustrating seasons and saw his name appear in trade rumors this winter, though nothing came together. He seems like he will be the regular in left, though Giancarlo Stanton could play some right and bump Judge over to the other side. The club also has been getting infielders Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oswaldo Cabrera some work on the grass.
That whole picture took a hit recently when Bader suffered an oblique strain that is going to keep him out of action for the few first weeks of the season, knocking out the top option in center. Both Judge and Hicks are options to take over in Bader’s stead, as Judge played there in 78 games last year. Hicks had been primarily a center fielder until getting bumped to left over the past few years. Given the demands of the position, it makes sense that the club would look to have another player capable of spending some time in center, in order to keep their well-paid veterans in the corners. Ortega has plenty of experience at the position but his grades there haven’t been especially strong, as mentioned.
It’s possible that the club prefers to take a chance on Florial, who is primarily a center fielder and much younger than Ortega at 25 years old. He’s out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors without being placed on waivers first. He has struggled in his major league time thus far, hitting .185/.302/.278 in a small sample of 63 plate appearances. He’s been much better in the minor leagues, including last year. In 101 Triple-A games in 2022, he hit 15 home runs and stole 39 bases. He struck out in 30.4% of his trips to the plate but also walked at a healthy 11.7% rate. His .283/.368/.481 amounted to a wRC+ of 124, indicating he was 24% better than league average.
Perhaps the Yankees didn’t want to give up on a player with that kind of apparent talent, MLB struggles aside. The speed portion of his game could perhaps become more important this year with the new rules that will encourage more baserunning. He has less than a year of service time and can be cheaply retained for the foreseeable future if he can provide enough value to hang onto a roster spot.
It’s also possible that there are further moves forthcoming, as many players get released or opt out from contracts with other clubs at this time of year. Perhaps the Yanks will find someone they like more than Florial on the waiver wire or trade block, though that remains to be seen.
Rangers Re-Sign Sandy Leon
3:35pm: The Rangers announced that they’ve re-signed Leon to a new minor league contract.
12:15pm: The Rangers are re-signing veteran catcher Sandy Leon, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. He spent spring training in camp with Texas but was released over the weekend. He’ll return — presumably on a new minor league pact — after surveying the market for other opportunities.
The veteran Leon, 34, had a solid spring with Texas, slashing .250/.333/.406 with a homer and two doubles through 36 plate appearances. Texas is set behind the plate with Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver expected to split catching duties, but Leon will give the club plenty an experienced backstop whose abilities with the glove and working with young pitchers are both highly respected.
Leon split the 2022 season between the Guardians and Twins, posting a combined .169/.298/.211 batting line in a tiny sample of 86 plate appearances. Outside of a clear outlier season back in 2016, when he slashed .310/.369/.476 with the Red Sox, he’s been a glove-first backup option. Since that standout season with the bat, Leon is a .190/.260/.292 hitter in 1167 plate appearances. Despite that lack of offense, he’s regularly turned in above-average to plus framing grades with strong marks in Defensive Runs Saved — all while thwarting a respectable 25.4% of stolen base attempts against him.
Beyond Heim and Garver, Texas also has Sam Huff as an option in the upper minors. Leon will give them a veteran complement who can be called up to serve as a backup if needed, whereas the organization likely prefers to continue getting Huff regular reps to the extent possible.
Keston Hiura Clears Waivers, Sent Outright To Triple-A
The Brewers announced that infielder Keston Hiura, who was designated for assignment this week, went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Nashville. As a player with more than three years of service time, he has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but doing so would mean forfeiting his $2.2MM salary. As such, he’ll surely accept the assignment and open the season in Nashville, hoping to play his way back onto the big league club.
Hiura, 26, was a ninth overall selection of the Brewers in 2017 and was a top 100 prospect in the years after that. He burst onto the big leagues in 2019, hitting 19 home runs in 84 games. His 30.7% strikeout rate that year was on the high side, but that was just his age-22 season. It seemed reasonable to expect that he would be able to refine his approach as he aged and grew accustomed to big league pitching, allowing him to make better use of that tremendous power.
Unfortunately, the opposite has proven to be true, with Hiura’s strikeouts becoming even more of a problem. His rate ticked up to 34.6% in 2020, then 39.1% the next year and 41.7% last season. The power still remains, as he hit 14 home runs in 80 games last year, but the punchouts give back a lot of the value that comes from those homers. As those strikeouts continued to mount, the Brewers often sent him to the minors, eventually exhausting his option years.
The Brewers could have kept Hiura around as a right-handed bench bat to complement their many left-handed hitters, but he actually has fairly extreme reverse splits in his career. He’s hit just .201/.283/.323 against lefties for a wRC+ of 65, while slashing .253/.332/.508 against righties for a 122 wRC+. The Brewers also brought Luke Voit aboard on a minor league deal this winter and saw him perform well this spring. He also has reverse splits, but not nearly as extreme as Hiura. Voit opted out of his minors deal but returned to the Brewers on a one-year deal, at which point Hiura was designated for assignment.
Hiura reached arbitration for the first time this winter and was able to secure himself a $2.2MM salary for the upcoming season. As mentioned up top, he can leave that money on the table and become a free agent if he likes, but the fact that no team claimed him off waivers suggests that none of the 29 other clubs values him at that price point. He’ll likely report to Triple-A and try once again to earn another opportunity in Milwaukee.
Orioles Return Rule 5 Pick Andrew Politi To Red Sox
March 28: The Orioles announced today that Politi has cleared waivers and been returned to the Red Sox.
March 27: The Orioles are designating Rule 5 pick Andrew Politi for assignment, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). If the right-hander goes unclaimed on waivers, he’ll be offered back to the Red Sox organization. Politi’s DFA, presumably, is the corresponding 40-man move for Baltimore’s previously reported acquisition of left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe.
Politi, 26, appeared in nine spring games with the O’s but was tagged for six runs on nine hits, three walks and a hit batter in 8 2/3 frames. He fanned eight of his 38 opponents along the way (21.1%). As a Rule 5 pick, Politi was required to remain on the active roster or Major League injured list all season and could not be optioned to Triple-A by the Orioles. If another team claims him, he’ll retain that Rule 5 status. If he goes unclaimed and is returned to the Sox, they will not need to place him on their 40-man roster.
A former 15th-round pick, Politi has routinely posted big strikeout numbers but shaky walk rates in the minor leagues — at least until last season, when he walked a career-low 8.0% of his opponents while posting a 2.34 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. Walks weren’t an issue this spring, but he allowed a pair of homers and was hit relatively hard overall. The Orioles apparently felt their in-house options were stronger and that the added bullpen flexibility of not carrying a Rule 5 reliever was too beneficial as they look to build on last year’s impressive showing and take strides toward competing for a postseason spot.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Nationals To Select Hobie Harris
Right-hander Hobie Harris has been informed he’s made the Nationals’ Opening Day roster, agent Matt Gaeta tells Matt Kardos of SomersetPatriots.com (Twitter link). He’ll make his MLB debut as a 29-year-old rookie after an eight-year grind through the minor leagues. Harris isn’t on the Nats’ 40-man roster, so they’ll need to select his contract and make a corresponding move.
Harris forced his way into the Nationals’ plans with an excellent spring, holding opponents to just one run on three hits and a pair of walks with seven strikeouts through 10 innings. Command has been an issue for Harris in the past, evidenced by a 12.5% walk rate in two Triple-A seasons, but the former Yankees 31st-rounder still pitched to a pristine 2.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in 53 innings for the Brewers’ Triple-A club in 2022. Manager Davey Martinez publicly praised Harris’ splitter and the manner in which he’d attacked the strike zone this spring.
Washington’s bullpen will likely have plenty of fluidity behind veterans Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards Jr. and Erasmo Ramirez. Hobie joins the likes of Hunter Harvey, Mason Thompson and Rule 5 pick Thad Ward as right-handers hoping to solidify themselves as viable big league options over the long haul. Harvey and Thompson had solid showings with the Nats in 2022, though neither reached 40 innings and Harvey in particular has a lengthy injury track record.
In additional Nats news, Martinez announced that first baseman Matt Adams will open the season in Triple-A Rochester (via Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com). Adams, who’d been in camp on a minor league pact, was informed he would not make the club and given an opportunity to seek a roster spot elsewhere. That didn’t present itself, and he’ll open the year with the Nationals’ top minor league affiliate.
Adams, 34, hit .325/.325/.525 with a homer and four doubles but an ugly 11-to-0 K/BB ratio in 40 spring plate appearances. He hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2021 and spent the 2022 season playing with the Kansas City Monarchs of the independent American Association, for whom he batted .248/.327/.554 with 27 homers in just 367 plate appearances.
This will be Adams’ second stint with the Nats, as he spent time in D.C. back in 2018-19, winning a World Series ring in the second of those two seasons. The burly first baseman has long been a force against right-handed pitching but has generally stumbled against lefties in his career. He’s a .258/.306/.463 batter with 118 home runs in 2614 plate appearances at the MLB level.
Guardians Discussing Extensions With Multiple Players
The Guardians are “in advanced negotiations” with multiple players on extensions, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. It’s unclear which players are involved in those deep talks, but Meisel reports that the club has had at least some conversations with infielders Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario, outfielder Steven Kwan, as well as right-handers Triston McKenzie and Trevor Stephan.
It seems talks with Gimenez are particularly advanced, as he’s now reportedly finalizing a long-term deal with the Guards. It was already known that Cleveland has also discussed an extension with Rosario, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Talks with Kwan, McKenzie and Stephan are new developments, though hardly surprising given the quality of each young player and the fact that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti recently indicated he had multiple irons in the fire on the extension front.
Kwan, 25, made his big league debut just last season and parlayed a terrific .298/.373/.400 batting line (124 wRC+) into a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. While he’s light on power (six home runs, .101 ISO), Kwan walked more often than he struck out (9.7% vs. 9.4%), swiped 19 bags in 24 tries (79.2%) and played exceptional defense in left field (21 Defensive Runs Saved, 10 Outs Above Average).
Cleveland already controls Kwan all the way through 2027, his age-29 season, so any long-term deal would surely prolong his arrival on the open market by at least a year — and quite likely by multiple years. That’d put him in his early 30s by the time he could test free agency, but there’s surely some appeal in locking in an early payday, particularly given his relatively humble draft status (fifth-round pick, $185K signing bonus) and the fact that the arbitration system won’t reward his contact-and-defense skill set in the same way it would a prototypical slugging corner outfielder.
McKenzie’s extension status could potentially be impacted by recent injury troubles. The Guardians announced yesterday that he’s suffered a teres major strain and will be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks. An absence of as many as eight weeks in total is expected.
That’s an unequivocal blow to the Cleveland rotation, as the 25-year-old McKenzie made good on his former top prospect status in 2022 when he pitched 191 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball with a strong 25.6% strikeout rate against a similarly impressive 5.9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue for McKenzie early on, but over his final 17 starts he averaged just 0.73 long balls per nine frames, compiling a dominant 2.19 ERA along the way.
Cleveland has four more seasons of control over McKenzie, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2023 season. Currently, Blake Snell‘s $50MM extension is the largest ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of Major League service time. (Although Spencer Strider topped that mark last summer when he had less than one full year of service.)
As a 27-year-old reliever, Stephan would be perhaps the riskiest but also surely the most affordable of this bunch. He won’t reach arbitration until next offseason but has quickly ascended from Rule 5 flier out of the Yankees’ system to a tried-and-true setup option for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase.
Stephan had a solid rookie campaign, lasting the entire season in 2021 (and thus shedding his Rule 5 designation) while pitching 63 1/3 innings of 4.41 ERA ball. His command and bat-missing abilities took huge steps forward in 2022, evidenced by a 30.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. That helped Stephan break out with a shiny 2.69 ERA that was reinforced by a 2.19 FIP and 2.55 SIERA. He picked up 19 holds and three saves, and he’ll head into the 2023 season as one of the bullpen’s top high-leverage options.
Extensions for relief pitchers are rare in general — and that’s even more true of pitchers so early in their arbitration years. The Mariners managed to lock up Andres Munoz on a four-year, $7.5MM deal when he was at a comparable service point, but he was coming off Tommy John surgery and faced considerable health risks. Jose Leclerc inked a four-year, $14.75MM extension that contained a pair of club options. That might be a more apt comp for Stephan, but by that point he’d already taken over as the Rangers’ closer — a role that Stephan won’t be occupying in Cleveland thanks to the presence of Clase. Broadly speaking, there’s no great, recent parallel for a Stephan extension, though that hardly means he and the Guardians can’t hammer out an arrangement that’s appealing for both parties.
Big Hype Prospects: Burleson, Ortiz, Rodriguez, Miller, Tovar
We’re fast approaching the eve of Opening Day. The likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Brett Baty continue to be among the most prominent prospect storylines. However, this column has covered them extensively over the long winter. It’s time we looked at some fresh(er) faces as we await Opening Day.
Five BHPs In The News
Alec Burleson, 24, OF, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 470 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .331/.372/.532
Walker’s ascension is overshadowing Burleson, who managed to snag a bench role and possibly a share of the designated hitter reps. The left-hander scalded Triple-A pitching before producing mixed results in 53 Major League plate appearances. Although his triple-slash of .188/.264/.271 can only be described as poor, underlying metrics suggest he was unlucky. In particular, his exit velocities, barreled, and hard contact rates all checked in as above average. He produced a .211 BABIP despite a batted-ball profile associated with high-BABIP hitters. An aggressive hitter, Burleson nevertheless has an advanced approach which helps him to make quality contact and avoid strikeouts. It’s difficult to avoid comparisons to teammate Lars Nootbaar who has a similar but more disciplined offensive profile.
Luis Ortiz, 24, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA
Ortiz experienced a breakthrough last season, leading to his ascension for a brief four-game cup of tea. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings while dazzling with a 98.5-mph heater. He’s back in the mix for an Opening Day role due to an injury to JT Brubaker. Ortiz throws standard and sinking fastballs as well as a double-plus slider. Though he doesn’t have an alternate offspeed weapon – his changeup is more of “show me” offering – such starters are increasingly common around the league. Typically, they only face the lineup twice. Should he eventually land in the bullpen, he profiles as a stopper or closer.
Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA
The Orioles front office has been unusually candid about Rodriguez dating back to last season. He suffered a lat injury on what many believe was intended as his final minor league appearance. While he recovered, GM Mike Elias commented about his belief Rodriguez would appear on the Orioles’ Opening Day roster in 2023 – comments he doubled down upon over the offseason. Ominously, Rodriguez didn’t look like himself after returning from injury. Though he continued to reap strikeouts (29) in 19 2/3 September innings, he also issued 14 free passes. He performed similarly this spring. In 15 1/3 innings, he recorded 19 strikeouts, seven walks, and a hit batter. He was also roughed up for three home runs. Once again, Elias was candid, saying “we were hoping that he would show up as a better version of himself.” Rodriguez still profiles as a future rotation member. His initial response to the lat injury has now cast a small sliver of doubt on his ability to reach an ace-like ceiling.
Mason Miller, 24, SP, OAK (AAA)
(AAA) 5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 5.40 ERA
That’s no typo, Miller pitched five innings at Triple-A after a seven-inning showing in High-A and two frames in the complex. He also collected six innings of work in 2021. Injuries have marred Miller’s early career. Finally healthy last fall and this spring, he impressed Athletics evaluators. He’s now on track to debut this season. Miller pumps upper-90s heat at the top of the zone. He also features a plus slider and has shown a quality changeup. He can locate both offerings to specific spots but doesn’t yet have command of the entire zone. While the stuff and repertoire suggest a future as a starter, the injury history could convince the Athletics to try him in the bullpen. He profiles as a top-tier fireman.
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
A solid Spring Training at the plate — .308/.368/.462 in 52 plate appearances — has all but assured Tovar’s presence on the Rockies Opening Day roster. An able defender who could challenge for Gold Gloves, Tovar’s bat will determine whether he’s a future star or simply a quality Major Leaguer. The young shortstop has shown exceptional athletic ability. However, underlying peripherals suggest there could be a rough adjustment period ahead. Tovar hasn’t developed much plate discipline. His swinging-strike rate is high for an aggressive contact hitter. He could find himself frequently behind in the count. Coors Field represents a unique developmental challenge for a hitter who would probably benefit from a more consistent offensive environment.
Three More
Jared Shuster, ATL (24): Shuster is a soft-tossing southpaw who relies upon command and a plus changeup. He shouldered past the likes of Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, and Bryce Elder to claim a spot in the Braves’ Opening Day rotation.
Dylan Dodd, ATL (24): Dodd has marched in lockstep with Shuster all spring. They’re remarkably similar pitchers. Another southpaw with a changeup-led repertoire and a command-over-stuff profile, Dodd is even of a similar size and shape to Shuster. Since Kyle Wright is behind schedule, both Dodd and Shuster will make their debuts next week.
Hayden Wesneski, CHC (25): The return in the Scott Effross trade with the Yankees, Wesneski has staked a claim to the fifth starter role. His command of a deep repertoire and overall feel for pitching promises a long and lasting career in the Majors.
Twins Grant Jeff Hoffman His Release
The Twins have granted right-hander Jeff Hoffman his release, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets. He’d been in camp on a minor league deal but had an out clause in his contract if he did not make Minnesota’s Opening Day roster.
Hoffman, 30, allowed a pair of runs on two hits and three walks with eight punchouts in five Grapefruit League innings for the Twins. He spent the 2022 season with the Reds, pitching to a 3.83 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate and a bloated 11.7% walk rate. In 348 1/3 innings at the big league level, Hoffman has a 5.68 ERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate.
That said, he’s also a former No. 9 overall draft pick and an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s had the task of pitching his home games at two of baseball’s most hitter-friendly venues: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park and Denver’s Coors Field. As one might expect, home runs have been an issue. He’s yielded 1.63 homers per nine innings pitched in his career, though he dropped that to 1.01 in 2022 with the Reds.
Hoffman has elite spin on his fastball, above-average spin on his breaking ball and in two seasons with Cincinnati posted solid swinging-strike rates that could portend a greater ability to miss bats than he’s shown for much of his career. He’ll head back to the market in search of a new opportunity with a clearer path to a spot on the big league roster.