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John Mozeliak Discusses Contract, Cardinals’ Offseason, Payroll

By | at January 14, 2023 7:28pm CDT

John Mozeliak’s most recent contract extension with the Cardinals covered the 2021-23 seasons, yet the president of baseball operations doesn’t seem too concerned about his status as he enters the final year of that contract.  Speaking with reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) today at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up fan event, Mozeliak said that he’d spoken to ownership about a possible new deal, but “I’m not overly focused on my contract or what 2024 looks like yet.”

Since Mozeliak also noted that “I don’t want to be a distraction first and foremost,” it seems possible that we might not hear any details about future negotiations until (or if) a new deal is officially announced.  Mozeliak has been in charge of the Cardinals’ front office since October 2007, and looking over that long history, two of his past extensions (in 2010 and 2013) weren’t signed until Mozeliak was in the final year of his deal.  However, the Cardinals were a little more proactive in locking up Mozeliak in his two most recent extensions — his current pact was signed in November 2019, when Mozeliak still had a year to do on his previous deal.

This all being said, there isn’t much to indicate that the Cardinals are actually thinking of moving on from Mozeliak, who has been with the organization in various roles since 1995.  Since Mozeliak took over from Walt Jocketty following the 2007 campaign, St. Louis has enjoyed 15 consecutive winning seasons, 10 postseason appearances, and a World Series championship in 2011.  Last October, the Cards signed two of Mozeliak’s top lieutenants (GM Michael Girsch and assistant GM/scouting director Randy Flores) to multi-year extensions, hinting that upper management had an interest in keeping the front office mix in place.

It doesn’t mean that Mozeliak isn’t facing some pressure heading into 2023, given the Cardinals’ relative lack of postseason success.  Over the last eight seasons, St. Louis has only a 1-5 record in playoff series, with the 2019 NLDS triumph over the Braves representing the only October trip that didn’t result in a one-and-done.

In terms of bolstering the 2023 roster for a deeper playoff run, the Cardinals had two major roster questions answered early, as the team re-signed Adam Wainwright, and Nolan Arenado chose not to opt out of the five years (and $144MM) remaining on his contract.  Furthermore, the Cards also made a splashy free agent signing, inking Willson Contreras to a five-year pact that installed the catcher as Yadier Molina‘s successor behind the plate.

Besides the Contreras deal, however, it has been a relatively quiet winter to date, and Mozeliak noted that some of the front office’s plans fell through.  “When we reflect back on the offseason, there were certainly some things we were hoping to do that we weren’t able to accomplish…A lot of things sort of unfolded or transpired that necessarily didn’t break the way we had hoped.”

For instance, a left-handed bat was on the Cardinals’ wish list, though the team isn’t necessarily short on such hitters — Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan are left-handed batters, while Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson are switch-hitters.  It doesn’t make for a clear path to playing time for a veteran hitter, which Mozeliak suggested was a stumbling block in the Cards’ talks.  “I don’t think we were a very compelling team to come to because when you look at our roster, there is competition…and I think some people just did not find that interesting,” Mozeliak said.  “Typically in negotiations, it really comes down to money and years, but there’s also that factor of fitting in as that player.  We were having a hard time convincing [them] this was an impactful-type role given the competition we have.”

Of course, there’s still plenty of time left before Opening Day or even the start of Spring Training, so the Cardinals will continue to look.  Whether a true big-ticket addition (via a trade or from what remains of the free agent market) is possible perhaps seems doubtful, as Mozeliak noted that improvements from such players as Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Jack Flaherty might be the key factors in whatever success the 2023 squad enjoys.  The internal depth on the roster is one reason that Mozeliak said the Cards didn’t do much exploration into adding a high-end starting pitcher or shortstop during the winter.

With Contreras as the only major new face on the roster, the St. Louis payroll is slated to be only marginally higher than its 2022 figure, which somewhat runs counter to Mozeliak’s assertion last fall that the Cards were ready to do some spending.  The rise in free agent spending throughout baseball left the Cardinals hesitant about making any big splurges beyond Contreras, but Mozeliak did hint that the Cards (traditionally an active team at the trade deadline) would be prepared to expand payroll during the season.

“Do we have the bandwidth to still add to this club throughout the year?  Yes, we do.  Is the market something that had an adverse effect [on] us spending? The answer is of course,” Mozeliak said.  “The way we operate is that we’re going to invest in what we think are smart investments, prudent, but also investments that we understand could have a backside of negativity or loss.  Having said that, you’re still not going to do something just to do something, and you’re not going to spend just to spend.  We like our team.  If we didn’t like our team we’d be making adjustments to our team.”

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Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

By | at January 14, 2023 5:35pm CDT

January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

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Angels Sign Taylor Jones To Minor League Deal

By | at January 14, 2023 3:58pm CDT

The Angels have signed first baseman/outfielder Taylor Jones to a minor league contract, according to Jones’ official MLB.com profile page.  Jones entered into minor league free agency after turning down an outright assignment from the Giants back in November.

Jones (who turned 29 last month) has appeared in each of the last three MLB seasons, all with the Astros.  Of his 131 career plate appearances, 108 came in the 2021 campaign — Jones had only 22 PA in his 2020 debut season and then made just one plate appearance in a single big league game in 2022.  Jones was hampered by a back injury that kept him from game action until June of last season, and though he still had solid Triple-A numbers, Houston designated him for assignment in September and the Giants claimed Jones into their organization.

Jones has only a .234/.260/.395 slash line to show for his 131 PA in the Show, but his bat has been much more productive in Triple-A ball.  Jones has hit .279/.377/.485 with 49 home runs over 1257 PA at the Triple-A level, though with the caveat that Jones has likely gotten some benefit from playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

That PCL tenure will continue with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate, and Jones can provide the Halos with some depth at multiple positions.  Jones has played mostly first base over his career, but has also seen some time as a third baseman and a corner outfielder (primarily in left field).  Los Angeles is already pretty deep in right-handed bats and Shohei Ohtani‘s presence pretty much rules out DH opportunities, though depending on how the Angels juggle their roster, Jones might find a niche as a right-handed complement to Jared Walsh, who is slated to be the regular first baseman.

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MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

By | at January 14, 2023 2:27pm CDT

The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

Who Will Win The NL East In 2023?

  • Atlanta Braves 49% (6,766)
  • New York Mets 29% (3,968)
  • Philadelphia Phillies 18% (2,454)
  • Washington Nationals 3% (361)
  • Miami Marlins 2% (215)

Total votes: 13,764

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Frankie Montas Expected To Miss First Month Of Season

By | at January 14, 2023 12:39pm CDT

The Yankees are expected to be without starter Frankie Montas for the first month of the season as he deals with shoulder inflammation, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Montas is about 8-10 weeks behind in his off-season training. Montas and the Yankees avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $7.5MM contract for 2023, a number which Heyman notes would have been higher were it not for the shoulder concerns.

While there’s no indication that any sort of surgery is on the cards for Montas, there’s nonetheless a fair degree of concern here, particularly given Montas struggled down the stretch last summer and ultimately went on the IL with shoulder inflammation to finish the season. The Yankees activated him ahead of the ALCS, and he pitched one inning of relief in that series.

Montas, 30 in March, was one of New York’s big deadline additions last summer, but he struggled mightily after coming over from Oakland. He’d been a highly effective starter on the rebuilding A’s, working to a 3.18 ERA over 104 2/3 innings (19 starts) for Oakland. That came with strong peripherals, as Montas walked just 6.6% of batters while maintaining an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate.

It was a different story in pinstripes though, as Montas was rocked for six earned runs in his debut against the Cardinals and finished with a 6.35 ERA across eight starts with the Yankees. Most notably, Montas saw his strikeout rate plummet to 17.8%, while also experiencing an uptick in walks from earlier in the season.

Prior to joining the Yankees, Montas had been an ever-reliable starter in Oakland. Across 401 innings between 2018-21 he worked to a 3.57 ERA, maintaining strong walk and strikeout rates. That also included a difficult pandemic-shortened season where Montas struggled, like many major league players, to the tune of a 5.60 ERA over 11 starts.

With a number of quality seasons under his belt, and with one-and-a-half seasons of team control remaining, Montas was one of the most sought-after trade targets last summer. The A’s, in the midst of a rebuild, were happy to take offers, and wound up agreeing to a deal with the Yankees, acquiring Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Luis Medina and Cooper Bowman for Montas and reliever Lou Trivino.

For the Yankees part, they saw Montas as an effective starter who could deepen their rotation ahead of a playoff run, and also contribute in 2023. While a May return for Montas still affords him plenty of time to be a major contributor to the Yankees in 2023, it is concerning that he doesn’t seem to have been able to shake the shoulder problems, and there would have to be fears of this lasting deeper into the season.

For now, the Yankees rotation is still in solid shape. They have a formidable front four of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt are the obvious internal candidates to handle Montas’ starts in the meantime. German worked to a 3.61 ERA over 72 1/3 innings last season, while Schmidt was used largely as a reliever in the big leagues, working to a 3.12 ERA over 29 appearances. He made eight starts at Triple-A in 2022, pitching to a 3.27 ERA in that time.

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Angels Outright Austin Warren

By | at January 14, 2023 10:27am CDT

Angels right-hander Austin Warren has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, per the MLB transaction log. Warren was designated for assignment to create a roster spot for outfielder Brett Phillips, who signed a one-year deal last week.

After a quality rookie year in 2021, Warren, 27 in February, fell away a bit in 2022, working to a 5.63 ERA over 16 frames. That came after he posted a 1.77 ERA over 20 1/3 innings a year prior, posting a quality 6% walk rate and 23.8% strikeout mark.

The strikeouts fell off a cliff last year though, as Warren punched out just 12.9% of the batters he faced in the big leagues, while also seeing a small uptick in free passes. Warren also saw his groundball rate fall from 53.4% in his rookie season to 37.4% in 2022. He fared a lot better at Triple-A last season, tossing 34 innings of 2.12 ERA ball.

Even with a quality sample of work as recently as 2021, the other 29 clubs have passed at the opportunity to take Warren so the Angels will be able to keep him in their organization this year. He still has two option years remaining, so even if the Angels do call upon him again in 2023 they’ll be able to move him back to the minors over the next few seasons.

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NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs

By | at January 14, 2023 9:37am CDT

While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.

Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.

As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.

Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:

  • The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
  • The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner‘s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.
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Phillies Sign Louis Head To Minor League Deal

By | at January 14, 2023 7:54am CDT

The Phillies have added right-hander Louis Head on a minor league deal, according to Baseball America’s transaction log.

Head, 33 in April, worked in relief for the Marlins and Orioles in 2022. He pitched to a combined 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings, most of which came with Miami. Head struck out batters at an 18.8% clip, and walked them 10.9% of the time, with both of those numbers falling about two percentage points on the wrong side of the league average mark.

It was a significant step backwards for Head, who’d shown a fair bit of promise in his rookie year with the Rays in 2021. After nine years bouncing around the minor leagues, Head worked to a 2.31 ERA over 35 innings in his first taste of the big leagues, posting a 23.9% strikeout rate and a quality 6.7% walk rate, both of which were about two ticks the right side of the league average.

The Rays flipped him across the state to Miami last winter, picking up minor leaguer Josh Roberson in return. He worked to a 7.26 ERA over 31 innings at Double-A for Tampa Bay, so the trade hasn’t been much of a success for either side.

The Phillies will hope they can help Head recapture some of his 2021 form and deepen their bullpen stocks. He has one minor league option remaining.

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2023 MLB Arbitration Tracker

By | at January 14, 2023 7:30am CDT

Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration — an annual deadline that leads to a slew of one-year deals and, typically, a handful of multi-year deals.  In all likelihood, more than 100 players will agree to their salary for the 2023 season within the next few hours.  MLBTR is planning to make improvements on our old Arbitration Tracker tool, but that’s a goal for next year.  For 2023, we’ll put all of the agreements in this post.

Each player’s service time is in parentheses, and you can of course check back to see each player’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  We’ll keep this updated throughout the day — refresh for updates — and break off some of the larger, more prominent agreements in separate entries.

Angels (9)

Astros (8)

Athletics (3)

Blue Jays (12)

Braves (8)

Brewers (14)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (6)

Diamondbacks (6)

Dodgers (10)

Giants (10)

Guardians (7)

Marlins (9)

Mariners (6)

Mets (8)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (6)

Padres (8)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (5)

Rays (14)

Red Sox (8)

Reds (7)

Rockies (5)

Royals (9)

Tigers (4)

Twins (8)

White Sox (5)

Yankees (12)

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Cubs, Ian Happ Avoid Arbitration

By | at January 13, 2023 11:18pm CDT

The Cubs and outfielder Ian Happ came to an agreement on a $10.85MM salary for the 2023 season in order to avoid arbitration, per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

Happ, 28, has spent his entire professional career as a member of the Cubs organization. He delivered a strong debut campaign in the 2017 season, posting a .253/.328/.514 slash line, good for a 114 wRC+ and some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes while splitting time between second base and center field. The following season, Happ split time between all three outfield spots as well as third base but took a step back offensively, posting a slash line of just .233/.353/.408 (106 wRC+) in 142 games with a worrisome 36.1% strikeout rate.

Happ spent much of the 2019 season at Triple-A Iowa working on his game, and appeared to have made improvements by the time he came up in the second half: in 58 games that season, he slashed .264/.333/.564 (126 wRC+) while cutting his strikeout rate all the way down to 25.0%. Happ’s improved game carried into the shortened 2020 campaign, where he looked like a potential MVP candidate early in the season before an injury an early September caused him to slump down the stretch. Still, he managed a 132 wRC+ on the year after his hot start to the shortened season. That slump continued throughout the first half of the 2021 season as Happ slashed .193/.296/.330 in the first half, though a strong second half allowed him to push his overall season numbers back above league average.

After a difficult year in 2021, however, Happ was able to post the best full season of his career in 2022, and looked like a completely different hitter while doing it. He posted a career high in doubles, a career low strikeout rate, earned a gold glove after settling into a full-time role in left field rather than bouncing around the diamond as he had in the past, and even managed to correct his heavy platoon split from previous years, becoming a largely split neutral player. All this led to his first career All Star appearance in 2022 and allowed him to earn over $10MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, even narrowly beating out the $10.6MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz.

While Happ is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season, rumblings of an extension have permeated throughout the offseason, with both Happ and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reportedly looking to start any potential extension talks before Spring Training, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

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