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Marlins Have Continued Interest In Bryan Reynolds

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The Marlins looked into a Bryan Reynolds trade with the Pirates prior to the trade deadline and were rebuffed, though that hasn’t stopped the team from trying again.  The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports that the Fish revisited talks with the Pirates before the lockout, even if “the odds are against” the chances of Reynolds ultimately heading to Miami.

In essence, nothing seems to have changed regarding Pittsburgh’s stance on a Reynolds trade, whether to the Marlins or any of the multiple other teams (including the Mariners, Yankees, Astros, Guardians, Brewers, and Braves) who have reportedly shown interest in the All-Star over the last seven months.  The center fielder is the rare roster piece that the Pirates aren’t too open to trading, as the Bucs feel their next competitive window will open while Reynolds is still a productive regular.  Reynolds is controlled through the 2025 season and would still seem to have several prime years ahead of him, as he only turns 27 years old tomorrow.

This mix of skill and contractual control also makes Reynolds a prime trade target, hence the long list of teams interested in his services.  The Marlins are perhaps better equipped than most to meet whatever the Pirates’ gigantic asking price would be for Reynolds, as Miami is deep in talented young pitchers who are either close to the majors or have already made an impact at the big league level.

It isn’t surprising that the Fish would keep asking about Reynolds, nor is there any real harm in continuing to check in just in case the Pirates have lowered their demands.  Discussing one trade could end up laying the groundwork for another deal, either now or down the road.  Perhaps related to this idea, there’s obviously some rapport between the Marlins and Pirates front offices, as the two teams completed a notable trade in November that sent catcher Jacob Stallings to Miami for a three-player package.

Offense and position-player help in general was a stated need for the Marlins heading into the offseason.  The club has thus far been aggressive in trading for Stallings and Joey Wendle (from the Rays), and Jackson writes that the Marlins have had trade talks with at least seven teams, though nothing was particularly close to being finalized before the lockout halted all big league roster activity.

In general, Jackson writes that the Marlins are “shooting high in their search for another impact bat,” and might not turn to second-tier options until the larger targets are off the table.  Jackson feels a trade is perhaps more likely than another free agent signing, though Miami has been active on that front as well in signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM free agent deal.  A true center fielder like Reynolds might be preferable to playing Garcia mostly every day up the middle, but the Marlins are comfortable enough with Garcia’s center-field ability that corner outfielders like Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki, or Nick Castellanos are still on the club’s radar.

How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021

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We covered the NL list on Sunday, and now let’s look at what the American League’s 15 teams have thus far done to upgrade their weakest positions (as gauged by the bWAR metric) of the 2021 season…

Angels (Shortstop, -1.0 bWAR): No team in baseball had a lower non-pitching bWAR than the Angels’ 7.1 number in 2021.  Beyond Jose Iglesias’ woes at shortstop, Los Angeles also received sub-replacement production in left field (-0.7), right field (-0.2) and third base (-0.1).  Considering Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon spent much of last season on the injured list, their returns should instantly shore things up, and top prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh are also expected to play bigger roles in the outfield mix.  This leaves shortstop as the biggest problem area, and while Tyler Wade was acquired from the Yankees, Wade might be better suited for a utility role — the Angels also continued to have interest in Chris Taylor after Wade was acquired, and before Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers.  With the Halos continuing to focus on pitching, it remains to be seen if they’re also willing to make a big investment in the shortstop position.

Astros (Catcher, 0.6 bWAR): Houston isn’t likely to tinker with the defensively-sound Martin Maldonado/Jason Castro tandem, yet more will be expected at the plate, particularly from Maldonado.  While never even a league-average hitter during his career, Maldonado particularly struggled last year, batting only .171/.272/.300 over 426 plate appearances.

Athletics (Designated hitter, 0.5 bWAR): Between league-average offense from Jed Lowrie and subpar production from Mitch Moreland and Khris Davis, the DH spot was a weak link in Oakland’s lineup.  All three players are free agents are may not return, and this may just be part of the forthcoming roster overhaul as the A’s are reportedly looking to cut payroll.  In this regard, the DH spot may be on the back burner to some extent, as the A’s might just use in-house options or a low-cost veteran or two to rotate at-bats in the position.  The DH barely edged out shortstop (0.6 bWAR) as the Athletics’ weakest position of 2021, but Elvis Andrus is currently expected to return at shortstop, given the difficulties involved in trading him.

Blue Jays (Third base and center field, 1.5 bWAR each): A healthy season from George Springer should take care of the center field spot, leaving the Jays to deal with third base and the second-base vacancy that now exists due to Marcus Semien’s departure.  The consensus feeling is that Toronto will deploy a Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal platoon at one of the two infield spots and find another everyday player for the other, and the Jays are open to thinking big, as they were reportedly interested in Corey Seager before Seager signed with the Rangers.

Guardians (Catcher, -0.3 bWAR): Cleveland chose to decline its $7MM club option on Roberto Perez, leaving the Guardians with a tandem of Austin Hedges (who was tendered a contract and is projected for a $3.8MM salary) and minor league signing Sandy Leon.  While there’s still plenty of room for improvement, the Guardians have traditionally prioritized defense and game-calling ahead of offensive production from their catchers, so it’s possible they might only add another veteran on a minors deal to provide Leon some competition.

Mariners (Center field, -1.0 bWAR): The M’s only got 1.6 total bWAR from their outfield, the second-lowest total of any team.  Left field produced only 0.2 bWAR, while right field was a much more respectable 2.4 bWAR (thanks in large part to Mitch Haniger).  With Kyle Lewis hopefully healthy, Jarred Kelenic hopefully adjusted to big league pitching after a tough rookie season, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez hopefully ready for his MLB debut in 2022, Seattle’s outfield issues may resolve themselves.  However, since that’s a lot of “hopefully” for a team intent on ending its playoff drought, the Mariners have been linked to such major outfield free agent targets as Kris Bryant and Seiya Suzuki.

Orioles (Second base, -2.0 bWAR): With the bullpen delivering -1.5 bWAR and third base -0.9 bWAR, it took some doing for the Orioles’ second base revolving door to take the backhanded top prize as the least-productive position on a 110-loss team.  Rougned Odor was signed to be at least a placeholder at the position, though if the former Ranger does enjoy any first-half success, the O’s could certainly flip him at the trade deadline.  Recent international signing Cesar Prieto is an intriguing wild card for the second base job later in the season, if Prieto is able to make a quick transition from Cuban baseball to affiliated ball.

Rangers (Left field, -0.7 bWAR): For all the money they’ve spent this winter, the Rangers haven’t directly addressed the left field spot, though the signing of Kole Calhoun (likely slated for regular right field duty) should improve the outfield mix as a whole.  Texas is another team known to be in the Seiya Suzuki race, and given how aggressive the Rangers have already been, pursuits of Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, or other major bats or trade targets can’t be ruled out.  2021 All-Star Adolis Garcia could be an option in left field if the Rangers don’t use him in center, and beyond Garcia, the Rangers’ internal left field options include Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun, and Eli White.  Beyond the left field spot, Texas has already signed Jon Gray, but pitching stands out as another major need on the to-do list — Rangers starters combined for a -0.1 bWAR in 2021, while the bullpen was an even 0.0.

Rays (First base, 1.6 bWAR): As deep and versatile as the Rays were in 2021, it isn’t surprising that they had the highest bWAR of any of the “worst” positions on this list.  The Yandy Diaz/Ji-Man Choi platoon was unspectacular but solid, though it is interesting that Tampa Bay has already traded away other infield depth options (Joey Wendle, Jordan Luplow, Mike Brosseau) in respective deals with the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Brewers.  This could be a hint at a forthcoming move, or perhaps the Rays were just shuffling the deck as always with their roster depth.  For instance, Brandon Lowe could be used at first base more often now that Vidal Brujan and Taylor Walls are ready for bigger roles on the MLB roster.

Red Sox (First base, 0.1 bWAR): If Bobby Dalbec’s second-half surge truly represents a breakout, then the Sox may already have their answer at first base.  Nonetheless, it stands to reason that the Red Sox will add depth in the form of a (probably left-handed hitting) multi-position player, as that player could then contribute elsewhere on the diamond once top prospect Triston Casas makes his expected MLB debut at some point in 2022.  There have also been some whispers that the Red Sox might have a bold move up their sleeves, so we can’t rule the possibility that Boston could acquire someone like Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, or maybe land a third baseman and shift Rafael Devers over to first base.

Royals (Right field, -1.2 bWAR): Kansas City didn’t get much from right field or the corner infield spots, as third base (-1.0 bwAR) and first base (-0.7 bWAR) were also sub-replacement level positions.  Hunter Dozier is a key figure in this equation, as he dragged down all three positions with his rough showing in 2021.  Carlos Santana also contributed to the first base woes with the worst season of his career, but the veteran slugger believes he can rebound now that he is past the leg injuries that hampered him last year.  The Royals have help on the way in star prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto, and with Pratto a defensive standout at first base, Santana might find himself relegated to DH or part-time duty unless he can recapture his old form.  Witt is primarily a shortstop but he has played some third base, giving the Royals some flexibility in handling third base and right field depending where any of Witt, Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, or Whit Merrifield are lined up on a regular basis.  It’s possible K.C. might pick up a relatively inexpensive veteran bat to lessen the pressure on the young kids, but the Royals aren’t likely to make a big position-player investment until they see what they really have in Witt, Pratto, and Kyle Isbel.

Tigers (Shortstop, -0.5 bWAR): It was widely expected that the Tigers would make a play for one of the big shortstops in the free agent market, and that box was checked when Javier Baez was signed to a six-year, $140MM deal.  With star prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene on the cusp of the majors, their arrivals should boost some other weak positions in Detroit’s lineup.  Tigers second basemen accounted for -0.2 bWAR, but with Torkelson playing first base, Jonathan Schoop can move over to the keystone.  Likewise, Greene is expected to play center field, which allows for a cleaner fit of Akil Baddoo as a left fielder, which will help the Tigers’ collective 0.3 bWAR in left last year.  Of note — Detroit had the lowest designated hitter bWAR (0.1) of any American League team, as even seven NL teams got a little more from their DH position in interleague competition than the Tigers did over 81 home games.  It makes for a bit of a conundrum with Miguel Cabrera, as his knees won’t allow him to take regular duty at first base, yet Cabrera hit decidedly better as a first baseman than as a DH last season.

Twins (Starting pitching, -1.4 bWAR): Dylan Bundy was signed to a one-year/$5MM contract, but given Bundy’s own struggles in 2021, Minnesota still has a lot of work to do in rebuilding its rotation.  A big splash can’t be ruled out, considering the Twins did express some interest in Robbie Ray prior to Ray signing with the Mariners, but it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will make a major long-term commitment to more than one new pitcher.  Beyond that hypothetical addition, any other new arms will likely take the form of shorter-term acquisitions (such as trade targets with one or two remaining years of control) or rebound-candidate free agents like Bundy.

White Sox (Right field, 0.6 bWAR): While second base is seen as Chicago’s biggest problem area, the Sox at least got 0.9 bWAR out of the keystone last year.  Then again, between Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets, the White Sox have a lot more options to at least make do in right field, whereas the depth chart at second base is the re-signed Leury Garcia and not much else.  A free agent like Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie could at least be a stopgap, but with not much second base help remaining on the open market, the White Sox certainly seem like a team that would be looking to swing a notable trade.

Yankees (Left field, -0.1 bWAR): Powered largely by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees combined for 7.4 bWAR from the right field and DH positions in the 2021.  The other seven non-pitching positions combined?  Only 5.4 fWAR, with left field standing out as the one sub-replacement total of the group.  New York hasn’t done much in general this winter, but in regards to the outfield, they parted ways with Clint Frazier and added Ender Inciarte as minor league depth.  Many of the Yankees’ outfield questions circle around Aaron Hicks’ health or whether or not Joey Gallo hits better over a full season in the Bronx, and another return for Brett Gardner can never be ruled out.  However, the outfield certainly stands out as a spot for the Yankees to make a splashy addition, if they’re willing to move beyond their recent modest (at least by Yankees standards) spending output.

Padres Hire Mike Shildt For Player Development Role

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The Padres announced their player development staff today, with a notable new name joining the fold in former Cardinals manager Mike Shildt.  While reports last month indicated that Shildt was going to take a job in the Commissioner’s Office, Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat tweets that Shildt will actually be working in both positions, as the league gave Shildt permission to also consult with San Diego.

This isn’t the first link between Shildt and the Padres, as San Diego interviewed Shildt for their managerial vacancy back in October, in the aftermath of Shildt’s surprising firing from the Cards dugout.  While the Padres ultimately opted for Bob Melvin as their new manager, clearly they liked what they heard from Shildt, enough to work this rather unique arrangement with the league office.

The 53-year-old Shildt will now be working for just the second MLB organization of his long career, as he had previously spent almost two full decades with the Cardinals.  The Padres job represents something of a full-circle moment for Shildt, who began as a scout with both the league and with St. Louis, before moving on to became a minor league coach and then manager in the Cards farm system.  Joining the big league coaching staff prior to the 2017 season, Shildt worked as a quality control coach, third base coach, and bench coach before being promoted to interim manager when Mike Matheny was fired in July 2018.

From there, the Cardinals basically just kept winning under Shildt, as the team reached the postseason every year from 2019-21 and played to a 252-199 record under their new skipper.  However, it was far from smooth sailing within the organization, as some discord arose between Shildt and the front office when the Cardinals were struggling earlier in the season.  While St. Louis ripped off a 17-game win streak in September to book a trip to the postseason, it wasn’t enough to save Shildt’s job, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” as the somewhat vague reasoning for Shildt’s firing.

Now, Shildt will take on a wide range of new responsibilities, between his duties with both the league and the Padres.  It may seem odd to speculate about what a next step might entail for someone who already has two jobs, but Shildt has seemingly positioned himself well for any number of different future roles, whether with MLB, the Padres, or another team interested in his services as either a manager, coach, or player development executive.

Kenta Maeda Aiming For September Return From Tommy John Surgery

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It’s been nearly five months since Twins righty Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, and while a September Tommy John procedure often wipes out the following season for a pitcher, Maeda recently told reporters in Japan that he’s aiming for a return this September (link via The Manichi). At present, his recovery appears to be on track, as Maeda revealed he’ll begin playing catch sometime in mid-February.

Maeda, 33, struggled through groin and elbow injuries last season before ultimately going under the knife on Sept. 1. He had an internal brace put into his elbow, which manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time of the surgery could help to expedite the righty’s recovery. There’s obviously a long way to go before it’s clear whether a 2022 return is an actual possibility, but Maeda says it’s “not a zero percent chance” that he can return late in the year.

Acquired in a 2019-20 offseason trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, Maeda was nothing short of brilliant in his first season with Minnesota. The 2020 campaign, of course, was shortened to a 60-game slate, but Maeda made 11 starts and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. That season saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (32.3%), walk percentage (4.0%), ground-ball rate (49.0%), swinging-strike rate (17.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (40.8%).

This past season was another story entirely. Maeda made 21 starts but tallied just 106 1/3 innings with solid but diminished strikeout and walk rates (24.9% and 7.1%, respectively). His fastball velocity dipped by about a mile per hour, and the elite hard-contact suppression he showed in 2020 trended back toward league-average levels. Along the way, Maeda had multiple IL stints and was the subject of some trade-deadline chatter before finally requiring surgery.

Even though Maeda wasn’t at his best in that injury-plagued 2021 campaign, his absence will nevertheless be felt by a Twins team that still has a dire need for starting pitching. It’s doubtful that Maeda’s surgery would’ve altered the decision to trade Jose Berrios to Toronto in return for a pair of highly touted prospects, but the Twins surely thought they’d have Maeda leading their 2022 staff at the time that deal was made.

Instead, Minnesota entered the offseason knowing that Maeda and Berrios were out of the picture — and also recognizing the possibility of free agent Michael Pineda signing elsewhere. Despite the glaring nature of that rotation deficiency, they’ve yet to really address the matter. Minnesota took a $5MM flier on right-hander Dylan Bundy, hoping they’ll be able to get something closer to the former Orioles/Angels hurler’s 2020 results than his 2021 output, but that’s the lone move the team has made to deepen the staff.

Bundy will join a rotation that should include towering right-hander Bailey Ober, who quietly posted a solid rookie season with a downtrodden Twins club in 2021. Rookie Joe Ryan, an Olympian with Team USA and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, had a strong September debut with the Twins and looks all but assured a spot as well. Baseball America rated him among the game’s Top 100 prospects just last week.

That said, the Twins sat out the free-agent market for virtually all of the top names — barring Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, who remain unsigned — and will now likely turn to the trade market and/or add another veteran from the lower tiers of the market. (There was some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion late in the season.) Getting Maeda back into the fold in September would be a boon, but for a team whose owner plainly stated the club would not rebuild after a disappointing 2021 season, the lack of activity to date has been rather surprising.

David Ortiz Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that David Ortiz has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle.

“I am truly honored and blessed by my selection to the Hall of Fame—the highest honor that any baseball player can reach in their lifetime,” Ortiz wrote in a statement released by the Red Sox. “I am grateful to the baseball writers who considered my career in its totality, not just on the statistics, but also on my contributions to the Red Sox, the City of Boston, and all of Red Sox Nation. I am also grateful to my teammates, my managers and coaches and Red Sox ownership for their faith in me and allowing me to be part of three World Championships.”

Ortiz received 77.9% of the vote, narrowly edging across the 75% threshold to earn induction on his first ballot. A native of the Dominican Republic, Ortiz originally began his career in the Mariners system. He was traded to the Twins as a prospect in 1996 and debuted with Minnesota late the following year. A solid but not elite hitter early in his career, Ortiz would spend the next half-decade with the Twins.

During the 2002 campaign, Ortiz tallied 466 plate appearances, a personal-high to that point. Despite posting a solid .272/.339/.500 line with 20 home runs, he was cut loose after the season. Signed by the Red Sox that offseason, he almost immediately emerged as one of the game’s most feared sluggers.

Ortiz hit .288/.362/.592 over 509 trips to the dish his first season in Boston. So began a run of five straight seasons with offensive output measured at least 45 percentage points above the league average by wRC+, with Ortiz finishing in the top five of AL MVP balloting each season. A fantastic postseason performer, he claimed the 2004 ALCS MVP award as part of the Red Sox’s drought-snapping World Series campaign and was excellent during Boston’s run to another championship three years later.

After a bit of a downturn between 2008-09, Ortiz somewhat surprisingly returned to his middle-of-the-order form as he neared his mid-30s. Between 2010 and 2016, the left-handed hitter never had a season with a wRC+ below 134. He was an instrumental factor in a third Red Sox title, claiming 2013 World Series MVP honors after putting up a comical .688/.760/1.188 showing in 25 plate appearances during a six-game series win over the Cardinals.

Ortiz remained an elite hitter through his 2016 retirement. He raked at a .315/.401/.620 clip during his final season, among the best showings of his illustrious run. That final campaign brought his career plate appearance total a bit north of 10,000 and he hung up his spikes owner of a .286/.380/.552 line. Ortiz tallied 2472 hits, 541 home runs (17th all-time) and drove in 1530 runs (23rd on the all-time list).

Despite his massive offensive production, it remained unclear until the very end whether Ortiz would have enough support to garner first-ballot selection. He was primarily a designated hitter, and his lack of defensive contributions were likely a sticking point for some voters. And, like many others on the ballot, Ortiz wasn’t without reported ties to performance-enhancing drugs.

According to reports, Ortiz failed a PED survey test in 2003. As Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs explored in much greater detail last month, however, MLB later suggested some players named in the survey test — which had been intended to remain anonymous — likely appeared on the list for substances that weren’t banned at the time. Ortiz was not named in the Mitchell Report, nor he was ever suspended for PED use during his career.

A significant enough portion of the BBWAA treated those results with sufficient skepticism to push Ortiz across the threshold for election, even as others on the ballot were excluded based on PED ties. A ten-time All-Star, Ortiz won seven Silver Slugger awards and was a key piece of three World Series teams. While Ortiz never won an MVP award, he appeared on ballots in eight separate seasons — including the aforementioned five consecutive top-five finishes. An icon in Red Sox’ franchise history, he’s now cemented as one of the greatest players in MLB history. MLBTR congratulates Ortiz — who’ll be enshrined alongside Era Committee inductees Buck O’Neil, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Gil Hodges, Bud Fowler and Minnie Miñoso next summer — on his induction.

Padres, Daniel Camarena Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have re-signed Daniel Camarena to a minor league contract, according to the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. San Diego had outrighted the left-hander off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, at which point he elected minor league free agency.

Camarena originally joined the Friars over the 2019-20 offseason on a minors pact. He’d spent nearly a decade in affiliated ball and was briefly selected onto the Yankees big league roster in July 2019 but had never appeared in an MLB game to that point. After the canceled 2020 minor league season, Camarena began last season with Triple-A El Paso.

While he would spend the majority of the season at the minors’ top level, Camarena did get into his first six MLB games last year. He was selected onto the big league roster in June and worked 9 1/3 innings of twelve-run ball. Clearly, he didn’t get the results he’d desired on the mound, but he did provide fans one of the most memorable moments of the season. On July 8, Camarena hit a grand slam off Max Scherzer in his second career at-bat, turning a 96.5 MPH fastball from one of the sport’s best pitchers around 416 feet.

Of course, the Padres primary interest in the 29-year-old is in his arm. Camarena posted a 4.75 ERA across 83 1/3 innings in a hitter-friendly environment with El Paso last year. The San Diego native owns a 5.32 mark in parts of five campaigns at that level. His 18.8% strikeout rate is below-average, but Camarena’s 7.7% walk percentage is solid. He’ll serve as a long relief or depth rotation option for his hometown club again in 2022.

MLB Rejects MLBPA’s Proposal For $30MM Cut To Revenue Sharing; Latest Details On Luxury Tax

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8:24 pm: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that MLB’s proposal would also include international signing bonus pool forfeitures for teams that exceed the CBT threshold. Interestingly, Slusser adds some details on the union’s CBT proposals as well. Under the MLBPA’s proposed framework, the CBT would escalate from the $245MM mark in 2022 to $273MM by 2026.

8:06 pm: Over the past two days, both the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball have put forth proposals on some of the game’s core economic issues. While the sides have made a bit of movement towards a midpoint — the MLBPA agreed to drop its push for earlier free agency eligibility; MLB agreed to a union formulation for a bonus pool that’d award certain pre-arbitration players based upon their performance — there’s still plenty of work to be done.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter links and thread) provides more details on MLB’s offer this afternoon. Notably, the league rejected the union’s recent push for a $30MM cut in revenue sharing, reiterating its desire to leave the process unchanged. (The MLBPA had initially been seeking a $100MM cut to revenue sharing but dropped the ask in yesterday’s offer). MLB also rejected a union push for players to accrue service time during postseason play.

Both Nicholson-Smith and Bob Nightengale of USA Today note that the league continues to push for more significant penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold. According to Nightengale, MLB’s most recent offer on the matter would’ve included a 50% tax on CBT overages and the forfeiture of a third-round draft pick for surpassing the threshold.

That’d mark a rather significant uptick over the penalties in the previous CBA, which contained no draft pick forfeiture and a 20% tax on overages for teams exceeding the base threshold for the first time. The sides are also divided on where such a threshold should be set. While the union has pushed for the CBT marker to jump from $210MM to $245MM next season, MLB has offered a far more modest increase to $214MM next year, maxing out at $220MM at the end of a five-year term.

With plenty of key economic issues still to be ironed out, Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers of ESPN write that the parties are planning to turn their attention to some ancillary subjects over the coming days before coming back to the issues of greater divide. Nicholson-Smith tweets that the joint drug agreement and grievance procedures are among the forthcoming topics of discussion.

MLB, MLBPA Discuss Potential Bonus Pool For Pre-Arbitration Players, Changes To League-Minimum Salary

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7:54 pm: According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the proposed pool system could allow players to increase their salaries by as much as 385% depending upon their WAR totals and placement in awards voting. He adds that under this system, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India would be in line for a $1.193MM salary despite not yet being arbitration eligible.

3:31 pm: After weeks of silence between the two parties, Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association met today for a second straight day as they work toward a new collective bargaining agreement. While an agreement is not believed to be anywhere close, there’s at least been some semblance of headway in talks (though the extent of that progress is debatable).

For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the MLBPA had sought to raise the minimum salary from $570,500 to $775,000 — but MLB had countered with a proposal for a $600K minimum. (For context, the minimum salary has risen between $7-10K in each of the past several seasons anyhow.) The league today moved that offer forward a bit further, offering a $615K minimum salary for players with less than one year of Major League service time, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).

Of course, the value of that “concession” is rather subjective. As Travis Sawchik of The Score observes, in order to keep up with inflation, the league would’ve needed to push the minimum salary to $650K just to match the minimum salary from the start of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Viewed through that lens, the league’s offer could actually be seen as a step back. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich adds that the minimum salary for players with one to two years of service would be $650K under the current proposal, while players with between two and three years would receive at least a $700K salary.

Interestingly, Sawchik reports that MLB proposed fixed salaries at those league minimum figures for players in each service bucket. While players would presumably still be free to sign early-career contract extensions, that would eliminate the system of teams renewing contracts for pre-arbitration players at amounts slightly higher than the league minimum. As one recent example, the Mets offered Pete Alonso a salary a bit north of $650K in 2020 (nearly $100K more than that year’s league minimum) as a reward for his Rookie of the Year-winning 2019 campaign. Under MLB’s proposal, that kind of deal would no longer be permitted.

Janes adds that the league has also dropped proposed scenarios that would alter the arbitration system and eliminate Super Two status — a designation that allows some players to reach arbitration a year early. Shrinking the number of players who can reach arbitration seems like something that would’ve been a non-starter for the MLBPA anyhow, so as with the incremental increases to the minimum salary, taking that component off the table doesn’t feel like much of a step back.

More interestingly, Major League Baseball agreed to the MLBPA’s proposal for a bonus pool, funded by central revenues, to reward pre-arbitration players (Twitter link via Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal). Pre-arb players would be in line for bonuses based both on Awards voting and on reaching certain Wins Above Replacement markers, Janes notes.

That figures to present its own levels of complication, as there are multiple versions of Wins Above Replacement. Beyond needing to agree on which form of WAR to set as the standard, the concept isn’t likely to sit well with the proprietors of those metrics. Baseball-Reference’s Sean Forman has already taken to Twitter to explain how uncomfortable he is with the notion of players being assigned millions of dollars based on a metric that is constantly undergoing slight tweaks to keep up with changes in the game (his Twitter thread on the matter is well worth a full read). Additionally, as Sports Illustrated’s Emma Baccellieri points out (Twitter link), there are some obvious potential conflicts of interest in tying pre-arb bonuses to awards voting that is conducted by the media members who cover those players.

For this bonus structure to work, the two sides would need to agree on the particulars of the bonus pool — and it does not appear as though they’re remotely close to doing so. While it’s promising, to an extent, that MLB was at least amenable to the union’s proposed framework, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that the MLBPA proposed a $105MM pool from which to reward those players. Not surprisingly, the league balked at that figure and countered with a $10MM pool — a figure at which players surely scoffed. Large as that gap may be, the mere fact that MLB is open to the concept clears the admittedly low bar set to declare progress in these talks.

It bears repeating that elements such as the minimum salary, arbitration and this newly conceptualized bonus pool for pre-arbitration players are all merely pieces of what is a much larger puzzle. The league’s larger priorities still include, perhaps most notably, the expansion of the playoff field — an endgame that would dramatically increase television and gate revenues at the most lucrative point in the MLB schedule. Players, meanwhile, have sought changes to a service-time structure that incentivizes teams to keep prospects in the minors longer than would otherwise be the case, a marked increase in the competitive balance (luxury) tax threshold, and measures to eliminate the incentives for teams to tank — among many other elements.

Suffice it to say, while it’s refreshing to hear of any progress, however slight, between the league and the union — it remains abundantly clear that major headway still needs to be made if Spring Training is to begin in mid-February, as currently scheduled. Most have suggested that a deal would need to be reached by Feb. 1 in order for that outcome.

The greatest concern is that any lack of accord between league and union will ultimately result in some portion of regular-season games being wiped out. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Drellich both suggested last night that Major League Baseball on Monday expressed a willingness to go down that road, if necessary, though the loss of regular-season games still figures to be a last resort and a worst-case scenario on all sides. There’s certainly a middle ground, where Spring Training could perhaps begin in late February or early March, paving the way for a truncated exhibition season and a full 162-game slate.

Whenever an agreement is reached, the league will also need to lift the current transaction freeze, sending front offices and player representatives alike into a frenzy to get the remaining group of unsigned free agents into Spring Training camps as quickly as possible and to resolve any outstanding arbitration cases. Front offices will need to work with fervor to complete any trades or other offseason dealings in an expedited fashion. The longer it takes for the league and union to strike a deal, the more hectic the aftermath of that agreement will be.

Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa Fall Off Hall Of Fame Ballot

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With the Hall of Fame’s announcement this afternoon that David Ortiz was the only player elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America this year, the path to induction via the writers’ ballot has officially closed for four of the most notable players in recent history. Each of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa has exhausted their ten years on the ballot and will no longer be eligible for consideration by the BBWAA.

Bonds and Clemens have two of the greatest statistical resumes in major league history and would’ve been first-ballot Hall of Famers had it not been for their ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Bonds is the all-time leader in career home runs (762). Among position players, he ranks second all-time behind Babe Ruth in FanGraphs measure of Wins Above Replacement. Baseball Reference has Bonds and Ruth tied for first in career position player value (before accounting for Ruth’s contributions as a pitcher). Bonds won seven MVP awards and was a 14-time All-Star.

Clemens, meanwhile, has a strong case as the most accomplished pitcher in the game’s history. An 11-time All-Star and seven-time Cy Young award winner, he appeared in 24 MLB seasons and won seven ERA titles. He ranks third in career strikeouts (4,672), ninth in pitcher wins (354) and is third among pitchers (excluding Ruth) in BRef’s WAR metric.

Each of Bonds and Clemens have a laundry list of accolades, but their non-inductions are obviously not about any flaws in their numbers. Both players, instead, are left outside the Hall because of their ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Both players were named as alleged steroid users in Senator George Mitchell’s 2007 report. Each of Bonds and Clemens were summoned to testify as part of Congressional hearings on PED usage in baseball; Bonds was later convicted on an obstruction of justice charge for giving an evasive answer during his testimony.

Whether to include alleged steroid users in the Hall of Fame has been a subject of (often bitter) debate amongst fans and writers. “Sportsmanship” and “character” are among the factors the Hall includes in its instructed criteria for voters, and those terms have been leveraged to make both moral arguments and questions about the authenticity of those players’ numbers to support steroid users’ exclusions from the Hall. Enough voters remained steadfast in their objection to including those implicated with PED’s to keep either Bonds or Clemens from accruing enough late-ballot momentum to get across the 75% threshold for induction. Both players finished in the 65% – 66% range on their final years on the ballot — a small but obviously insufficient bump relative to last season’s 61% – 62% marks.

Schilling appeared in parts of 20 MLB seasons. A six-time All-Star, he never won a Cy Young but finished as a runner-up on three separate occasions. Schilling “only” won 216 career games, but he owned a 3.46 ERA over 3261 innings. His 3116 strikeouts place 15th on the all-time list. Among the top 14, Clemens is the only player not enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Yet Schilling has seen dwindling support in recent years in the wake of a series of controversial public statements. As it became clear he was unlikely to be elected by the BBWAA, Schilling requested to have his name removed from this year’s ballot. That wasn’t granted, although he did see a 12-point drop in vote share between 2021 and 2022 after his push to be removed from consideration. Schilling appeared on 58.6% of ballots this year.

Sosa, somewhat curiously, never had the same level of support as any of Bonds, Clemens or Schilling. He received just 18.5% of the vote this year and never threatened election during his time on the ballot. Despite being one of just nine players to exceed 600 career home runs, Sosa’s career .273/.344/.534 slash line “only” checked in 24 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. Moreover, he wasn’t a highly-regarded defender. But Sosa was one of the sport’s most famous and productive sluggers at his peak, hitting an astounding 332 home runs between 1998-2003 (more than 55 per season).

No doubt contributing to his dearth of support is that Sosa reportedly failed a 2003 survey test for performance-enhancing drugs. As Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs recently explored, though, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred later cast some doubt about the reliability of those results (which had been intended to remain anonymous). Ortiz also reportedly failed that same survey test, but enough voters looked on those results with skepticism to elect him on the first ballot. Sosa was never suspended for a PED test in his career, although he was hit with an eight-game ban in 2003 for corking his bat.

Each of Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Sosa will need to rely on one of the Era Committees if they’re now to gain induction. Those committees have tended to be more favorable to candidates than has the BBWAA, although it remains to be seen how they’ll approach this particular group of highly controversial candidates.

As far as returning candidates go (full results available here), Scott Rolen jumped from 52.9% to 63.2% in his fifth year. Todd Helton (4th year) and Billy Wagner (7th year) each eclipsed 50%. Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield both landed in the low-40% range, while Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle and Torii Hunter received less than 30% of support. (Vizquel’s vote share was cut nearly in half after separate domestic violence and sexual harassment allegations were levied against him within the past thirteen months).

Among first-time candidates, only Alex Rodriguez (34.3%) and Jimmy Rollins (9.4%) received more than the 5% necessary to remain on the ballot for future consideration. As with Bonds and Clemens, Rodríguez has obvious Hall of Fame statistics but PED ties that’ll hamper his path to induction. Joe Nathan, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, Jonathan Papelbon, Prince Fielder, A.J. Pierzynski, Carl Crawford and Jake Peavy fell shy of the 5% threshold and dropped off the ballot, as did second-year candidate Tim Hudson.

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