Astros Sign José Abreu To Three-Year Contract
The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.
Abreu, 36 in January, has spent his entire big league career with the White Sox thus far, but it seemed likely as the season was winding down that they were ready to let him switch jerseys in 2023. With many other first base/designated hitter candidates on the roster, such as Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez, the thinking was that they would let Abreu walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere, which now appears to have come to pass.
Though the Sox were apparently willing to let him walk away, he continues to have excellent results at the plate. In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.
That was his ninth MLB season, with Abreu posting a wRC+ of 114 or higher in each of them. He got as high as 164 in 2020, winning Most Valuable Player in the American League in that shortened season. Despite the downturn in power this year, he’s been one of the best hitters in the league over the past decade or so. Since his debut in 2014, he has a 139 wRC+ for his career, with only 11 hitters posting a higher such number in that timeframe. Given his generally solid work at the plate but relatively older age, MLBTR predicted him to secure a contract of $40MM over two years, or $20MM per season. He was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer since he had already been given one earlier in his career.
The Astros were excellent in 2022, winning 106 regular season games and then storming through the playoffs to their second World Series title. First base was actually one of the few weak spots on the roster, as Yuli Gurriel suffered through a down year at the plate. After hitting .319/.383/.462 in 2021, he slumped down to .242/.288/.360 this year. The club acquired Trey Mancini at the deadline to try to bolster the position but it didn’t really work out as he hit just .176/.258/.364 after the deal. Both players reached free agency at season’s end, leaving a vacancy for Abreu to step into. This signing potentially brings Gurriel’s tenure in Houston to an end after seven seasons, unless he’s willing to return in a lesser role as a pinch hitter and occasional designated hitter.
The Astros recently parted ways with general manager James Click amid reported disagreements between him and owner Jim Crane. It seems Crane is in no rush to replace Click, taking over the baseball decisions and seemingly content to continue doing so into the new year. Despite the unusual front office situation, they’ve continued to be quite active, re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and now adding Abreu, both on three-year deals.
Turning to the financials, the Astros currently have a 2023 payroll around $163MM and a competitive balance tax figure around $178MM, per Roster Resource. Their Opening Day payroll figure was $175MM last year and $188MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Abreu’s contract is in the predicted range of about $20MM per season, that would push their payroll up above $180MM and their CBT number close to $200MM. Though they’re getting close to their previous highs in spending, it stands to reason that they can push it a little bit this winter on the heels of a Championship run and all the extra revenues that go along with that. As for the CBT, the lowest threshold for 2023 will be $233MM, leaving them with plenty of remaining space even if they plan on avoiding going over.
For the White Sox, this marks the end of an era that lasted almost a decade. Vaughn is a natural first baseman whose attempts to move to the outfield went poorly. He produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.5 Ultimate Zone Rating was also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved was among the bottom five. However, he hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115 while just 24 years old. The Sox surely hope that he can produce even better results as he continues to acclimate to MLB pitching, especially without having to bother with worrying about his outfield defense in the future. Nonetheless, the club will be looking to improve on an 81-81 season while letting their best hitter depart, which won’t be an easy task.
For the Astros, their lineup was already extremely potent, featuring the likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. They’ve now added one of the best hitters in the league as they look to defend their World Series title in the year to come.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Abreu and the Astros were finalizing a deal, as well as the three-year term (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that the salary would be around $20MM per season. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported that it would actually be $19.5MM per year. Heyman was first with the specific salary structure.
Image courtesy USA Today Sports.
Latest On Nationals’ Sale Negotiations
Hanging over the past seven months of Nationals business has been the Lerner family’s efforts to find a buyer for the franchise. Ted Leonsis, whose Monumental Sports & Entertainment owns the NBA’s Wizards, NHL’s Capitals and WNBA’s Mystics, had emerged as the favorite in those discussions in recent weeks.
While that might still be the case, the Talk Nats blog reported over the weekend the sides remain divided on a price point. Talk Nats suggests there’s some pessimism about the possibility of Leonsis finalizing a purchase of the franchise imminently, if at all. To be clear, there’s no suggestion the Lerners and Leonsis are on the verge of calling off talks, but it seems there’s still a notable gap to bridge in negotiations.
The primary stumbling block, as has been the case throughout the sale process, seems to be the franchise’s uncertain TV rights outlook. As part of the relocation efforts to move the franchise from Montreal to Washington nearly two decades ago, MLB (which owned the Expos/Nationals at the time) agreed to tie its local broadcasting rights to the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. MASN is jointly owned by the Nats and Orioles, but the Orioles’ ownership share is roughly 77% while the Nats own around 23%. That agreement, a condition of the franchise’s relocation into the Orioles’ geographic territorial rights, caps the Nationals’ TV revenue by making it impermissible for them to sell broadcasting rights to a regional sports network.
Leonsis owns NBC Sports Washington and would almost certainly prefer to broadcast Nationals games on that network if he took control of the franchise. Doing so would require negotiating a way out of the MASN contract with the Orioles, though, and it’s not clear whether the Baltimore organization has any interest in doing so. MLB has gotten involved in an attempt to broker a settlement between the franchises, but there’s no indication they’ve made progress to this point.
Hanging over the potential negotiations is an acrimonious past between the Orioles and Nats that hasn’t been resolved. Disputes about the Nationals’ share of TV rights led to litigation that has been pending for nearly a decade. In 2019, an arbitrator ruled the network owed the Nationals around $105MM in unpaid rights fees. MASN appealed that decision, and the appeal has still yet to get on the docket for the New York Court of Appeals.
While Leonsis purchasing the franchise still seems well within the range of possibilities, it doesn’t appear a resolution is coming in the near future. The Washington Post wrote in August the organization was hopeful of completing the sales process by November. That certainly isn’t going to happen, and it seems an open question whether a solution will be known by the time the calendar turns to 2023. It’s hardly an ideal situation for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff to construct their roster this offseason, although the Nats look likely to be relatively quiet regardless after firmly committing to a rebuild with the Juan Soto trade over the summer.
Mets To Promote Eric Chavez To Bench Coach, Jeremy Barnes To Hitting Coach
The Mets are promoting Eric Chavez from hitting coach to bench coach, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Glenn Sherlock, who’d served as bench coach during Buck Showalter’s first season at the helm, will remain on staff and work more closely with the team’s catchers. Meanwhile, Heyman reports that assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes is getting a bump to the lead hitting coach job to replace Chavez.
Chavez and Barnes were each new additions to New York’s staff last offseason. The former was initially slated to serve as assistant hitting coach with the Yankees, but he made the jump to the lead role in Queens just a couple weeks after joining the Yankees’ staff. His rapid ascent up the ranks continues with the nod as Showalter’s top lieutenant in year two.
A six-time Gold Glove winner during his playing days with the A’s, Chavez has spent some time in the front office and managed in the Angels’ farm system during his post-playing time. He’s drawn some big league managerial attention in the past, but the 2022 campaign was his first on an MLB coaching staff. The 44-year-old could certainly find his name in managerial searches during future offseasons.
Barnes had been the Mets’ director of player initiatives before getting the bump to the MLB staff last winter. The 35-year-old now gets a lead hitting instructor nod for the first time. A Notre Dame graduate, Barnes played in the Phillies farm system for four seasons. After his playing career wrapped up, he spent time in the Astros’ front office before joining the Mets. Heyman notes the Mets were concerned about the possibility of losing Barnes to a promotion with another team, presumably to fill a hitting coach vacancy elsewhere. New York valued him highly enough they bumped him to the lead role themselves.
Angels, Chris Devenski Agree To Minor League Contract
The Angels have reportedly agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Chris Devenski. The 32-year-old receives an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Devenski made 13 big league appearances this past season. He opened the year with the Diamondbacks and was selected onto the MLB roster in late July. That marked a culmination of a year-long rehab from a Tommy John procedure undergone in June 2021. The Cal State-Fullerton product made 10 appearances for the Snakes, allowing nine runs in 10 2/3 innings before being let go at the end of August.
The Phillies added Devenski on a minor league pact almost immediately thereafter, and he was selected onto the 40-man roster at the end of September. He pitched three times in a Philadelphia uniform, allowing five runs in four innings. While he was eligible for postseason play, he was left off the roster throughout Philadelphia’s pennant-winning stretch.
It has now been a few seasons since Devenski was an effective bullpen arm, but he’s gotten at least brief MLB looks in each of the last seven years. The former 25th-round draftee was one of the most valuable relievers in the game at his peak with the 2016-17 Astros. Over that two-year stretch, he combined for a 2.38 ERA through 189 innings. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, however, he owns a 5.45 mark in 145 frames split between three teams.
To his credit, Devenski managed a quality 20:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 Triple-A innings this year. The Halos will take a no-risk look to see if he can carry that production over in Spring Training and compete for a spot in the big league bullpen. Anaheim had a middle-of-the-pack relief corps in 2022, finishing 18th in ERA (3.97) and 22nd in strikeout rate (22.2%).
Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Angels and Devenski had agreed on a contract. Sam Blum of the Athletic was first to report it was a minor league pact with an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Miguel Cabrera: 2023 Likely To Be Final Season
The 2023 campaign is the final guaranteed season of the ten-year extension Miguel Cabrera inked with the Tigers during 2014 Spring Training. It also increasingly looks as if it’ll be the last year of Cabrera’s illustrious career.
Speaking with Christina De Nicola of MLB.com, the 12-time All-Star indicated he’s leaning towards retirement at the end of next year. “I think it’s going to be my last year,” Cabrera said. “It feels a little weird to say that. … I think it’s time to say goodbye to baseball.”
Cabrera shied away from the unwavering retirement declaration Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina made last year, but it’s the second consecutive year in which he’s suggested the conclusion of his contract could coincide with the end of his career. Last August, Cabrera told ESPN he was likely to step away after the 2023 campaign. He noted at the time he’d surpass 20 years of MLB service time by the end of the 2023 season and suggested that milestone — coupled with continued pain in his right knee — would likely lead him to retire at that point. He’ll make $32MM in salary next year and collect an $8MM buyout on a 2024 vesting option at the end of the season, leaving the Tigers still on the hook for $40MM.
A two-time MVP winner, Cabrera turns 40 in April. He’ll be playing his 16th season in Detroit and told De Nicola he hopes to remain involved with the organization working with younger players after the end of his playing career. As for the 2023 campaign, he indicated his primary personal goal was to remain healthy. He missed a couple weeks late this past season with a biceps strain but appeared in 112 games and tallied 433 plate appearances.
Cabrera is coming off the worst year of his career, having posted a .254/.305/.317 showing with only five home runs. He didn’t log any time on defense, and that kind of production from a designated hitter certainly isn’t ideal. How many at-bats the Tigers can afford Cabrera if he continues to struggle offensively is a question for president of baseball operations Scott Harris and skipper A.J. Hinch, but the four-time batting champion indicated he was on board with whatever decision Hinch makes in that regard.
Hinch suggested late in the season he expects Cabrera to be on the roster in 2023 (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). He’s been an average or below-average hitter four years running, but there’s no question of his legacy in Tigers history. Cabrera had seven top ten MVP finishes in Detroit, including a five-year stretch of consecutive top five placements from 2009-13. Despite his recent struggles, he owns a .306/.383/.517 line since landing with the Tigers over the 2007-08 offseason.
Even with a likely reduced workload next season, the Venezuela native will get a chance to continue climbing the all-time leaderboards. He ranks 25th with 3088 hits, and he’s certain to pass Ichiro (3089), Dave Winfield (3110) and Alex Rodriguez (3115) if healthy. Matching this year’s 101 hits would push him past Tony Gwynn, Robin Yount, Paul Waner, George Brett, Adrián Beltré and Cal Ripken Jr. into 16th place. Cabrera ranks 27th with 507 career home runs, and even part-time work could get him past Gary Sheffield (509), Mel Ott (511), Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks (512 apiece) to 23rd.
Reds Sign Luke Maile
6:29pm: It’s a $1.175MM guarantee, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. There’s an additional $25K bonus attainable if Maile appears in 80 games next season.
4:25pm: The Reds announced they’ve signed catcher Luke Maile to a one-year contract. Financial terms of the deal have not yet been reported. Maile is a client of Meister Sports Management. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count is up to 39.
Maile, 32 in February, has spent his career bouncing around the league as a depth option. He’s played parts of seven big league campaigns, suiting up with the Rays and Blue Jays early in his career. He spent the 2021 season with Milwaukee and inked a $900K guarantee with the Guardians this past spring.
The University of Kentucky product opened the season on the injured list with a left hamstring strain, but he was reinstated by mid-April. He spent the rest of the year on the active roster, logging a bit less action in a timeshare with Austin Hedges. Maile made 76 appearances, hitting .221/.301/.326 with a trio of home runs across 206 plate appearances. While he was arbitration eligible for a final time this winter, Cleveland non-tendered him in lieu of a projected $1.3MM salary.
Maile has 306 games of big league experience under his belt. He’s a career .207/.268/.314 hitter but has a solid reputation as a defender. Defensive Runs Saved gave him average marks in just over 500 innings of work last season, but that metric has pegged him 21 runs better than par over the course of his career. Statcast has given him mixed reviews as a pitch framer in recent years. It’s credited him with an above-average throwing arm, though, with a 1.96-second average pop time (time to throw to second base on a steal attempt) that ranked 28th among 72 catchers with 10+ throws.
With over five years of big league service time, Maile is on track to return to the open market at the end of next season. For the 2023 campaign, he’ll presumably settle into his familiar role as a backup. Cincinnati is sure to give the lion’s share of playing time to Tyler Stephenson, who looks like one of the top young backstops in the game. The Reds cycled through a number of depth options behind him this year, giving brief looks to each of Aramis Garcia, Austin Romine, Michael Papierski, Mark Kolozsvary, Chuckie Robinson and Chris Okey.
None of that group is still in the organization. Romine reached free agency, while Okey, Robinson, Papierski and Garcia were all let go. Kolozsvary was lost on waivers to the Orioles. Maile joins Stephenson as the only backstops on the 40-man roster, and Cincinnati could look to bring in another depth player on a minor league deal later in the offseason.
Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.
There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.
Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.
On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.
It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.
The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.
Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.
Pirates Have Had Discussions With Kyle Gibson
The Pirates recently had a video chat with free agent starter Kyle Gibson, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic. According to Biertempfel, the Bucs have ongoing interest in the veteran right-hander.
Gibson, 35, just wrapped up his first full season in Philadelphia. He originally landed with the Phillies at the 2021 trade deadline, dealt midway through a three-year free agent deal signed with the Rangers. While he was sitting on a 2.87 ERA through his first 19 starts of the 2021 campaign in Texas, Gibson posted an ERA north of 5.00 through his season and a half in Philly. Through 43 appearances (42 starts), he pitched to a 5.06 ERA across 236 2/3 frames.
That’s not a particularly impressive run prevention mark, but the 2021 All-Star has had more effective underlying numbers. His 20.3% strikeout rate over the past year-plus is a bit below average, although that’s offset by a quality 7% walk percentage. As he has throughout his career, the sinkerballer induced grounders at a quality 48% clip in Philadelphia. That lower-strikeout, high-grounder approach wasn’t necessarily an ideal fit in front of a below-average infield defense. Opposing hitters had a .243 batting average on ground balls against Gibson this past season, slightly above the .235 league mark. He also had one of the league’s lowest left-on-base rates at 67.7%. For his career, Gibson has stranded just under 71% of baserunners he’s allowed. A few more grounders finding gloves and timely outs could lead the 10-year veteran to an ERA closer to the low-4.00’s range, where defense-adjusted estimators like FIP and SIERA have pegged his recent production.
Pittsburgh was one of the league’s better teams at turning grounders into outs this past season. Ke’Bryan Hayes is an elite defensive third basemen, although shortstop Oneil Cruz drew mixed reviews from public metrics for his rookie season. The Bucs have acquired a trio of capable defenders at first base this offseason — free agent signee Carlos Santana, trade acquisition Ji-Man Choi and waiver claim Lewin Díaz — while their second base job still seems largely up for grabs.
The Pirates have a young rotation with potentially multiple vacancies to plug. As things stand, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Roansy Contreras look to have the inside track at rotation spots. Keller and Brubaker, each of whom are entering their first seasons of arbitration eligibility, could find themselves in trade rumors this winter. Even if they return, the final two spots are up in the air. Neither Bryse Wilson nor Zach Thompson pitched particularly well in their 20+ starts this past season. Johan Oviedo, who came over from the Cardinals midseason in the José Quintana and Chris Stratton trade, had a solid seven starts to put himself in the mix. The 24-year-old has been inconsistent as a strike-thrower, though, and he was primarily deployed out of the bullpen in St. Louis. Luis Ortiz, Miguel Yajure and Mike Burrows are depth options already on the 40-man roster, and top prospect Quinn Priester could pitch his way into the mix midseason after a strong year at Double-A.
It seems likely the Bucs will add at least one veteran arm, both to eat innings and add some experience for a generally young group of hurlers. Last year, they inked Quintana to a $2MM bounceback deal. He provided them with 20 starts of 3.50 ERA ball before the midseason trade that brought back Oviedo and minor league first baseman Malcom Nuñez. Quintana’s again a free agent, and Biertempfel reports the Pirates are interested in bringing him back to the Steel City. Quintana will certainly land a far better contract this time around — MLBTR predicts him for a two-year, $24MM deal — and it remains to be seen if the Pirates are willing to meet a loftier asking price. Gibson doesn’t figure to be quite so expensive, although he should fairly easily beat the $2MM guarantee Quintana received last offseason.
The additions of Santana and Choi added roughly $11MM in projected spending to the 2023 ledger. Nevertheless, the Bucs still have just over $54MM in estimated commitments, per Roster Resource. Even a modest hike from this year’s approximate $56MM Opening Day payroll should allow them to continue building out the roster with lower-cost veteran additions.
Pittsburgh is certain to bring in at least one experienced catcher, and general manager Ben Cherington has previously expressed an openness to adding in the middle infield. Biertempfel writes the Pirates are similarly willing to supplement the outfield. It’s hard to envision the Bucs making a huge splash in any of those areas, but they figure to explore the lower tiers of various areas of the market to continue shoring up the weakest points on a roster coming off a 62-100 campaign.
Athletics Name Darren Bush Bench Coach
The Athletics have announced a number of coaching assignments for the upcoming season. Darren Bush is the new bench coach, with Mike McCarthy named the bullpen coach, Marcus Jensen quality control coach, Mike Aldrete first base coach and Eric Martins third base coach. Meanwhile, pitching coach Scott Emerson, hitting coach Tommy Everidge and assistant hitting coach Chris Cron will stay on in the same roles.
Brad Ausmus was the club’s bench coach in 2022 but it was reported a few weeks ago that he wouldn’t return to the role. That left a vacancy that Bush will now step into. The 48-year-old played in the minors around the turn of the millenium and then transitioned into coaching after his playing days were done. He joined the A’s in the 2005 season, coaching in the minors, eventually moving up to the big league staff for the 2013 season.
After Bob Melvin departed the manager’s chair in Oakland one year ago for the same role in San Diego, Bush was one of the internal candidates to be considered as his replacement. The job eventually went to Mark Kotsay, with Bush moving from hitting coach to third base/run prevention coach.
Among the other names in today’s announcement, they were all already in the organization except for McCarthy, who had been the pitching coach for the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate this year.
Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest
The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.
Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.
Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.
However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.
As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.
Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.