The Opener: Cy Young Awards, Free Agent Contest, Starting Pitching Market
In the wake of yesterday’s deadlines, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the baseball world today:
1. Cy Young Award Results Announced Tonight
Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Cy Young awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Justin Verlander, Dylan Cease, and Alek Manoah are the finalists. Verlander led all of baseball with an ERA of just 1.75 this year and stands as the likely favorite over Cease and Manoah, despite their own impressive seasons. One thing Cease and Manoah have going for them is volume: Both made more than 30 starts in 2022, while Verlander made just 28. Over in the NL, Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, and Julio Urias are the three finalists. Alcantara is the clear favorite here after pitching a whopping 228 2/3 innings in 2022, pacing all of baseball by more than 20 innings. Alcantara’s season wasn’t just about volume, however; he was also dominant, posting a 2.28 ERA and 2.99 FIP on the year. Urias posted a lower ERA than Alcantara, leading the NL with a 2.16 mark (though his 3.71 FIP tells a somewhat different story), while Fried beats out Alcantara in terms of FIP with a 2.70. Neither one managed to beat Alcantara in both categories, though, and both trail him by more than 40 innings pitched in 2022.
2. MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest Submissions Close Tonight
Today is the last day you can sign up for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest. For this contest, you’ll predict where our Top 50 Free Agents will go, with cash prizes awarded to the top three finishers and a one year membership to Trade Rumors Front Office available to everyone who finishes in the Top 15. Much of the MLBTR staff also participates, so you can see how your predictions stack up compared to those of our writers!
3. Anderson, Martinez Deals Signal Movement On The Starting Pitching Market
Yesterday’s qualifying offer deadline spurred movement on the starting pitching market, as Martin Perez accepted the QO from the Rangers, re-upping with them on the one year, $19.65MM deal. Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, agreed to a three-year, $39MM deal with the Angels in lieu of accepting the QO from the Dodgers. This move came as something of a surprise; Anderson was predicted to accept the QO by the MLBTR team along with Perez and Joc Pederson, both of whom did so. That Anderson earned a $39MM guarantee may indicate that the strong market relievers have found this offseason could extend to starters, though early deals have a tendency to be strong, and that momentum doesn’t always carry throughout the winter. Nick Martinez, meanwhile, secured a three-year deal with the Padres that’ll guarantee him a reported $26MM — comfortably outpacing the three years and $18MM from which he opted out. As for other implications across the market, the Dodgers are perhaps likelier to be in search of another arm to replace Anderson in the rotation. The Padres could yet be open to adding some rotation depth, though Martinez gives them a solid one through four on which to rely (assuming he’s indeed ticketed for the rotation). The Rangers aren’t expected to stop after retaining Perez at a premium rate; they’ll remain active players in the rotation market.
Terry Francona, Buck Showalter Win Manager Of The Year Awards
The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of Manager of the Year voting Tuesday evening. Guardians skipper Terry Francona claimed the award in the American League, while Buck Showalter received the National League honor.
While Francona and Showalter are each veteran managers with decades of experience, they were in rather different situations for 2022. Francona is the longest-tenured active manager with one team, having held the position in Cleveland since the start of the 2013 season. Showalter, on the other hand, took over the job in Queens last winter.
The two clubs were also at dramatically different ends of the payroll spectrum. Francona was tasked with overseeing a young Guardians roster that ranked near the bottom of the league in player payroll. Cleveland didn’t enter the season with particularly strong general expectations — at least among those outside the organization and its fanbase — but the Guardians ran away with the AL Central in September after a tightly-contested race with the Twins and White Sox for the first five months. Cleveland finished the year 92-70 to claim their first division title since 2018.
Showalter inherited a polar opposite of a roster, one with sky-high expectations after an offseason spending spree that brought in a number of stars. The Mets had come up empty with talented teams in the past, failing to reach the playoffs every year from 2017-21. That wasn’t an issue in 2022, as Showalter guided the club to a 101-win season — their first year topping triple-digits since 1988. The season ended on a bit of a sour note, as the Mets were swept in a three-game set by the Braves late in the year to blow a division lead that once had exceeded 10 games. Nevertheless, they still coasted to a Wild Card berth.
The voting in both leagues was fairly tightly contested. In the AL, Francona topped Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde and Seattle’s Scott Servais. The Cleveland skipper earned 17 of 30 first-place votes, while Hyde picked up nine for helping the O’s to a surprising above-.500 finish. Servais got one first-place nod but appeared on 23 ballots overall, while Houston’s Dusty Baker picked up three first-place votes but was on just 13 ballots in some capacity. Aaron Boone (Yankees) and Kevin Cash (Rays) also garnered some support.
Turning to the NL, Showalter tied with the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts with eight first-place votes apiece. He edged out Roberts with 10 second-place nods and appeared on 25 ballots overall. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker was the other finalist, grabbing seven first-place votes. Oli Marmol (Cardinals) and Rob Thomson (Phillies) also got decent support, while San Diego’s Bob Melvin grabbed one third-place vote.
Francona claims the award for the third time in his career. Despite winning two World Series during his time leading the Red Sox, he didn’t claim his first Manager of the Year nod until landing in Cleveland in 2013. He won again in 2018 and adds a third to his resume, becoming the ninth man in history to do so.
Showalter, meanwhile, has remarkably won Manager of the Year four times — each with a different team. He’d previously picked up the nod in 1994 with the Yankees, 2004 with the Rangers and 2014 with the Orioles. Showalter joins Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa as the only four-time winners, and he’s the only one to achieve it with four different organizations.
Full voting breakdown: American League, National League
Astros Select J.P. France
The Astros announced this evening they’ve selected right-hander J.P. France onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
A 14th-round pick from Mississippi State in the 2018 draft, France spent all of this year at Triple-A Sugar Land. He worked in a swing capacity for the Space Cowboys, starting 15 of his 34 outings. France pitched to a 3.90 ERA across 110 2/3 innings, punching out an above-average 28.3% of opponents against a slightly elevated 10.6% walk rate.
France turns 28 years old in April, putting him on the older side for a prospect. However, that he’s carved out a 40-man roster spot clearly indicates the Astros view him as a viable rotation or long relief depth option going into next season. Houston already has one of the league’s top rotations — even with Justin Verlander in free agency — but France could return to Sugar Land to provide some cover against injuries in the starting staff.
Yankees Select Randy Vasquez
The Yankees announced this evening they’ve selected right-hander Randy Vásquez onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
Vásquez signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic during the 2018-19 international signing period. A curveball specialist, he recently ranked as the #9 prospect in the New York farm system at Baseball America. The outlet credits him with a low-mid 90s fastball and suggests he could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter if he makes some strides with his control.
The 24-year-old spent this past season at Double-A Somerset. He made 25 starts and worked 115 1/3 innings, pitching to a 3.90 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 48.3% ground-ball percentage. Those are both solid marks, as is his 8.3% walk rate. He figures to start next season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but has a good chance at debuting in the majors at some point in 2023.
Twins Select Four Players
The Twins announced this evening they’ve selected four players onto the 40-man roster to prevent them from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Joining the roster are infielder Edouard Julien and pitchers Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick and Casey Legumina.
Julien was an 18th-round draftee out of Auburn in 2019. He’s hit very well in the minor leagues the last two years, including a .300/.441/.490 line with 17 home runs across 508 plate appearances at Double-A Wichita. The Quebec native walked in a stellar 19.3% of his plate appearances against a manageable 24.6% strikeout rate. He’s played each of second, third and first base and gotten some time in left field. Better suited for a corner, Julien’s a bat-first utility prospect. He checked in 10th on Minnesota’s midseason farm rankings at Baseball America.
Canterino went in the second round of the same draft coming out of Rice. The right-hander has an intriguing four-pitch mix but hasn’t logged many professional innings after spending time on the injured list in each of his seasons. He tossed 34 1/3 innings through 11 outings with Wichita this year, posting a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate but walking 15.3% of opponents.
Headrick, 25 next month, was a ninth-rounder in 2019 from Illinois State. The 6’6″ left-hander split the year between High-A Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He combined for a 3.32 ERA through 108 1/3 innings, fanning just under 31% of opponents with only a 5.7% walk percentage.
Legumina was an 8th-rounder in that class out of Gonzaga. The 25-year-old joined Headrick in splitting his season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. He posted a 4.80 ERA while working primarily in multi-inning relief. Legumina struck out roughly 24% of opponents with a 9.4% walk percentage.
Dodgers Select Four Players
The Dodgers have selected catcher Diego Cartaya, infielder Michael Busch and outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca to the 40-man roster, per a team announcement. That quartet is now protected from being taken in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
It’s a notable group to join the 40-man roster. Cartaya, Busch and Pages, in particular, all rank among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in the game, with Cartaya drawing a particularly impressive placement at No. 9 overall.
The 21-year-old Cartaya split his 2022 season between Class-A and High-A, where he was notably younger than the league average at both levels. The age gap didn’t deter him, however, as he turned in a combined .254/.389/.503 batting line with 22 home runs and doubles alike. Cartaya is considered a work in progress with the glove but boasts huge raw power and a keen eye at the plate, evidenced by a walk rate north of 14% in 2022.
Busch, meanwhile, is a second baseman who slugged 32 home runs, walked at an 11.5% clip and struck out in 26% of his plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line shows plenty of promise, even though scouting reports question his overall defensive value. BA lists him 46th on its top 100.
Pages, ranked 72nd by BA, hit .236/.336/.468 in 132 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A, more than holding his own against more advanced pitching. He also fared well in the Arizona Fall League, batting .296/.398/.506 in his 98 plate appearances there. He swatted 26 home runs in Double-A this year and 31 in High-A a year ago, and BA notes that Pages has some of the best raw power of any prospect in baseball.
As for DeLuca, the 24-year-old doesn’t draw the same fanfare as today’s other three additions, but his .260/.347/.541 batting line, 25 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and 17 stolen bases were convincing enough for the Dodgers to protect him. DeLuca fanned in just 14.3% of his 119 plate appearances in Double-A this year, and while that’s a small sample from a late-in-the-year promotion, it likely tickets him for a return effort there to begin the 2023 season. With a strong showing, he could be in Triple-A before long, and a look in the Majors next season is certainly plausible now that he’s in the upper minors and on the 40-man.
Padres Select Tom Cosgrove
The Padres have selected the contract of left hander Tom Cosgrove and added him to the 40-man roster.
A 12th round pick in 2017, Cosgrove initially worked as a starting pitcher in the Padres system, but was moved to a relief role last year. He split time this season between Double-A and Triple-A. His promotion to the top level of the minor leagues came after he tossed 25 2/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball, striking out 38.2% of batters and walking 12.7%. While the strikeout rate was impressive, he certainly benefited from an 88.2% LOB rate and a .205 BABIP.
He struggled a bit at Triple-A, although he still managed to strike out 33.6% of batters faced. However, his walks remained an issue and he gave up a home run every five innings. On the whole, he finished with a 4.80 ERA across 30 innings at the higher level.
While Cosgrove hasn’t exactly dominated the minor leagues, the Padres 40-man roster stands at 34 after this addition, so it certainly didn’t hurt to add Cosgrove and avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft. As a lefty with strong strikeout numbers, Cosgrove could provide some helpful bullpen depth next season.
Rockies Acquire Nolan Jones From Guardians
The Guardians have traded infielder Nolan Jones to the Rockies for infield prospect Juan Brito, according to an announcement from Cleveland. It’s an out-of-the-blue swap of talented young players.
Jones, a former second-round pick, appeared among Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He consistently put up quality numbers in the minor leagues, posting some of the game’s highest walk rates to run top-tier on-base marks. Jones struggled a bit during his first crack at Triple-A in 2021 but still entered this year among BA’s top ten Cleveland prospects.
The 24-year-old started the season back at Triple-A, but he performed better in his second go-around at the level. In 248 plate appearances, he put up a .276/.368/.463 line with nine home runs. The Guardians called him up for the first time in July, and he picked up his first 92 big league trips to the plate. Jones hit only .244/.309/.372 while striking out a third of the time in that limited look, but there’s still plenty to be intrigued about in his long-term profile.
Jones owns a .252/.361/.443 mark across 655 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s walked in 13.7% of his trips to the dish there while connecting on 22 home runs and 36 doubles. A lofty 28.4% strikeout rate leads to some questions about his bat-to-ball skills, but the combination of power and plate discipline makes him an intriguing addition for the Rox.
The Philadelphia native came up as a third baseman, although he increasingly saw more action in the corner outfield this year. Prospect evaluators have long suggested he could be an adequate defender at the hot corner, but the position was obviously spoken for long-term in Cleveland by José Ramírez. The Rockies already have a franchise third baseman of their own — albeit not one of Ramírez’s caliber — in Ryan McMahon. With McMahon playing elite defense at the hot corner, Jones will probably factor more immediately into the corner outfield and designated hitter mix. The Rockies have Charlie Blackmon for another year to split time between right field and DH, while Kris Bryant will hopefully stay healthy and lock down left field. C.J. Cron is the presumptive starter at first base, but Colorado can rotate Jones’ left-handed bat into the mix alongside Cron while also keeping Blackmon off his feet more often.
Turning to Cleveland’s end of the swap, they land an interesting lower-level prospect from an improving Colorado farm system. Brito, who recently turned 21, spent the entire 2022 season in Low-A. He hit .286/.407/.470 with 11 home runs through 497 plate appearances, walking in an excellent 15.7% of his trips against a meager 14.3% strikeout percentage. Baseball America only placed the Dominican Republic native 30th on its midseason ranking of the Colorado farm system, but Guardians evaluators are clearly far more bullish on his upside.
Brito has played almost exclusively second base in the minors. He’s not regarded as a particularly impressive defender or athlete, but he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with an excellent minor league track record. The Guardians have prioritized players with impressive bat-to-ball skills and the ability to play a key defensive position, and Brito certainly fits that mold.
With Brito already eligible for the Rule 5 draft, Cleveland immediately selected him onto the 40-man roster. The Guardians often navigate roster churn around the Rule 5 date as they swap out depth types or players who are becoming more costly via arbitration for further away talent. This is not that kind of move, however. Both players occupy a 40-man spot, and neither is within two years of reaching arbitration. Both can still be optioned to the minor leagues — Jones for one more year, Brito three times. Brito surely won’t factor into the MLB mix right away, but this marks a fascinating swap of unproven young players — one seemingly motivated by each team simply valuing the player they’re bringing in more than the player they’re shipping away, not by contractual provisions or roster reshuffling.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Marlins Designate Elieser Hernandez, Four Others For Assignment
The Marlins have announced a number of designations on Rule 5 protection day. Right-handers Elieser Hernandez, Nick Neidert, Jeff Brigham, José Devers and Lewin Diaz for assignment (h/t to Joe Frisaro). In corresponding moves, Miami added George Soriano, Josh Simpson and Eli Villalobos onto the roster.
Brigham threw 24 innings of 3.38 ERA ball out of the Marlins’ bullpen this year, posting solid strikeout (27.7%) and walk (9.9%) rates. Those are decent enough results that should leave Brigham with options for 2023, but the 30-year-old was arbitration eligible and a likely non-tender candidate, so the Marlins opted to cut him loose in favor of a freed up 40-man spot. Neidert and Hernandez are the others pitchers Miami cut loose. Neidert only appeared in one game for the Marlins this year, but had a 1.96 ERA at Triple-A in 46 innings. Hernandez struggled mightily in the big leagues, winding up with a 6.35 ERA across 62 1/3 innings.
Miami also parted ways with hitters Devers and Diaz. Devers appeared in 21 games as a middle infielder, slashing .244/.304/.317 without a home run. Diaz has struggled in parts of three seasons in the big leagues for Miami. The first baseman hit just .169/.224/.288 with five home runs in 174 plate appearances this year. He did grade out well defensively, but his lifetime .181/.227/.340 line was never going to be enough from a bat-first position.
The Marlins used the open spots to add a trio of intriguing arms to their 40-man roster. Villalobos blew away Triple-A hitters in 17 1/3 innings this year, striking out 26 and posting a 1.04 ERA. Simpson did the same, striking out 23 batters in 12 1/3 innings after being called up from Double-A. Soriano didn’t post any big strikeout numbers, but the 2.49 ERA he wound up with over 47 Triple-A innings was certainly enough promise to earn him a spot on the 40-man. All three are now a chance to feature in the Marlins’ bullpen in 2023.
Blue Jays Designate Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer For Assignment
The Blue Jays have designated outfielders Bradley Zimmer and Raimel Tapia for assignment. Toronto also released left-hander Foster Griffin. In corresponding moves, the Jays selected the contracts of righty Yosver Zulueta and infielders Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz and Orelvis Martinez.
Tapia landed in Toronto in the Spring Training deal that sent Randal Grichuk to the Rockies. The hope was to more adequately balance an outfield that skewed right-handed with a lefty-swinging contact bat, but Tapia didn’t have a great year. In 433 plate appearances, he hit .265/.292/.380 with seven home runs. He demonstrated his customarily solid bat-to-ball skills, but he rarely walked or hit for much power.
The 28-year-old was eligible for arbitration for a final time this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a notable $5.2MM salary. That always looked likelier than the Jays were hoping to pay for a fourth/fifth outfield type, and today’s designation functions as akin to a non-tender. Toronto can technically trade Tapia in the next few days, but it looks likelier he’ll go unclaimed on waivers and be sent to the open market.
Zimmer also worked as a left-handed bench bat in the outfield. He got into 109 games between Toronto and Philadelphia but only picked up 117 plate appearances. He’s a solid defensive outfielder but has always been very strikeout-prone in the big leagues. That included a 38.5% strikeout rate this season, which featured just a .124/.207/.229 overall mark.
The 29-year-old (30 later this month) had been projected for a $1.3MM arbitration salary. As with Tapia, he’s effectively being non-tendered a few days in advance to clear the 40-man roster spot.
Griffin made just one two-inning relief appearance for the Jays after being acquired from the Royals midseason. The former first-round pick of Kansas City spent much of his tenure with Triple-A Buffalo, working 23 1/3 innings out of the bullpen there. He posted a 2.31 ERA with a solid 24.8% strikeout rate as a Bison.
Turning to the players joining the roster, Martinez and Zulueta were two of the easier calls to keep out of the Rule 5 draft around the league. The former was a high-profile signee out of the Dominican Republic during the 2018-19 international period. He’s appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects in each of the past two years, garnering praise for his big power potential. He spent the entire 2022 campaign at Double-A New Hampshire as a 20-year-old but stumbled to a .203/.286/.446 line — albeit with a 30-homer showing that demonstrated his power upside.
Zulueta had a breakout year that saw him traverse four minor league levels. A native of Cuba, he combined for a 3.72 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate while topping out at Triple-A. Baseball America slotted him fifth in the Toronto organization midseason, praising his four-pitch mix. Zulueta, 25 in January, figures to start next season in Buffalo but could play his way onto the big league roster at some point during the year.
Barger, 23, was a sixth-round selection in the 2018 draft out of a Florida high school. He’s played all around the infield and performed at three minor league levels this year. The left-handed hitter combined for a .308/.378/.555 showing in 526 plate appearances, albeit with higher than average strikeout totals. BA ranked him 18th in the Jays’ system midseason.
Horwitz, 25, went in the 24th round of the 2019 draft out of Radford. He’s outperformed that modest draft stock and now sits on the brink of the majors after combining for a .275/.391/.452 mark in 483 plate appearances at the minors top two levels. He’s primarily a first baseman, putting plenty of pressure on his bat. According to Baseball America, he’s the #13 prospect in the organization.