Braves To Sign Pat Valaika
The Braves have reached an agreement to sign infielder Pat Valaika to a one-year, $775K deal if he makes the Major League team, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
The 29-year-old is a veteran of six MLB seasons, having spent 2016-2019 with the Rockies and the past two seasons with the Orioles. Valaika has defensive versatility and has shown flashes of power in his career, but he also comes with low batting averages and high strikeout rates.
In 864 career plate appearances, he has 30 home runs but an overall line of .221/.264/.378, along with a strikeout rate of 27.2%. While he’s spent more time at second base than any other position, he’s also frequently appeared at the other three infield spots, in addition to brief spells in the outfield corners and 1 1/3 innings of mound work.
For the Braves, Valaika will join a mix of players who will compete for bench/utility roles with the club. Orlando Arcia was already on the roster, and the Braves reportedly signed Phil Gosselin to a minors deal earlier today. Valaika is still relatively young and has an option year remaining, meaning he could be shuffled between Triple-A and the big leagues. He also has just over four years of MLB service time, meaning Atlanta could keep him around for next year via arbitration, if his performance warrants.
Twins To Sign Joe Smith, Place Kenta Maeda On 60-Day IL
12:55pm: It’s a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. To make room on the roster, Kenta Maeda has been placed on the 60-day IL. The news on Maeda is merely a formality, as he had Tommy John surgery last year and will miss most of the season, hoping for a September return.
10:58am: Right-hander Joe Smith is signing with the Twins, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
This is something of an early birthday present for Smith, as he will turn 38 years old on Tuesday. A veteran of 14 MLB seasons at this point in his career, the sidearmer has played for the Mets, Indians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros and Mariners. In that time, he’s appeared in 832 big league games, with a 3.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate.
The last time Smith was a free agent, he signed a two-year deal with the Astros prior to the 2020 season. The righty ended up opting out of that pandemic-shortened campaign due to family health concerns, the first season he missed since 2006. He returned last year and showed a bit of rust, putting up an ERA of 4.99 over 39 2/3 innings. His previous career high was 3.83, set way back in 2010. However, he clearly improved as the season went on, as can be seen when comparing his time before and after a trade from Houston to Seattle. Prior to the deal, he had an ERA of 7.48, with a measly 16.5% strikeout rate, though his 3.9% walk rate was excellent. As a Mariner, his ERA was an even 2.00 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.3%, with his walk rate nudging up only slightly to 5.7%. Those are small samples, but the brief stint with the Astros in the first months of last year seems to be the outlier here, as the rest of Smith’s ledger is very strong. Also, Smith’s batting average on balls in play was .413 before the deal and .229 after. Given his career BABIP of .276, it seems possible to attribute his first-half numbers to poor fortune.
For the Twins, they have been extremely busy in the post-lockout period, totally remaking their lineup, subtracting Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver but adding Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa. The main focus now will be on whether they can bolster their pitching staff enough to help that lineup compete this year. Adding Sonny Gray to the rotation surely helped, and now Smith will strengthen the relief corps. It’s a relatively inexperienced group, with Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey being the only other projected members of the bullpen with more than four years of MLB service time, making Smith a logical addition for his veteran presence.
Cubs To Sign Drew Smyly
The Cubs and starter Drew Smyly are in agreement on a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second year. The first year carries a $4.25MM base with a $1MM buyout on a 2023 mutual option. Smyly, then, is guaranteed $5.25MM over one season with an additional $2.5MM available in potential incentives. The two sides were reportedly close to coming to terms on a deal yesterday.
Smyly should actually get the opportunity to take the hill in Cubbie blue this time: he previously signed a backloaded two-year deal with the Cubs when recovering from Tommy John surgery prior to the 2018 season. He spent that year rehabbing with the organization without ever making an in-game appearance.
After the season, the Cubs dealt Smyly to the Rangers in a bit of financial acrobatics. At the time, the Cubs were trying to bring back Cole Hamels, who had a buyout option that Texas was on the hook to pay if the Cubs didn’t accept a team option. The Rangers were basically given the choice of paying Hamels’ $6MM buyout, or taking on Smyly and his $7MM, one-year deal.
The Rangers chose to avoid the dead money and add Smyly to their rotation. Even if Texas’ hand was forced to a certain degree, they needed pitching, and Smyly seemed a fair and affordable bet to rebound from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, he never found his footing with the Rangers, posting a 8.42 ERA across 51 1/3 innings, earning his release in June.
Since then, he’s become a mercenary swingman, finishing the 2019 season with the Phillies, spending the shortened 2020 year with the Giants, and then winning a World Series ring as part of the Braves last season. Smyly did not make the postseason rotation, but he did appear in three games during the run, including twice in the World Series.
During the regular season, he made 23 starts and appeared in 29 games for the Braves, logging a not-insubstantial 126 2/3 innings with a 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP. Smyly continued a career trend in keeping the ball in the air with just a 39.2 percent groundball rate in 2021. He recorded a 21.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate, both numbers fairly close to average marks for a starting pitcher.
For the Cubs, Smyly can help fill out a rotation that’s improved from last year’s unit, but still facing a number of questions. Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, and Wade Miley make up a veteran front three, but there’s not much beyond that veteran trio, especially with the recent news that Adbert Alzolay will begin the year on the injured list. Smyly becomes the leading candidate for the fourth spot in the rotation, and given the guaranteed money on his deal, he’s a safe bet to at least start the season in the rotation.
Looking over his shoulder, Alec Mills, Steven Brault, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Anderson Espinoza, and Brailyn Marquez are other potential rotation candidates. Down the line, Caleb Kilian, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson, and Alexander Vizcaino are prospects with some pedigree who could play their way into rotation minutes.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) broke the initial news of the deal, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) added the initial financial terms. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided the details of the mutual option.
Angels To Sign Ryan Tepera
March 19: The Angels have officially announced Tepera’s signing. As a result of the signing, however, Kyle Tyler has been designated for assignment. Tyler, 25, tossed 12 1/3 innings for the Angels in 2021 over five games with a 2.92 ERA. The former 20th-round draft pick logged a 3.66 ERA over 86 innings in Triple-A, mostly pitching out of the rotation.
March 17: The Angels continue to bolster the relief unit, agreeing to terms with Ryan Tepera on a two-year, $14MM deal. It’s the second notable free agent pickup of the day for the Halos, who agreed to terms with Archie Bradley this morning. Tepera is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.
Tepera was one of the top relievers remaining on the market. He’d been a capable but mostly nondescript middle innings option for a few seasons in Toronto, but the right-hander has taken his game to new heights since signing with the Cubs in advance of the 2020 season. Tepera worked 20 2/3 innings over 21 appearances during the shortened campaign, posting a 3.92 ERA. That run prevention was mostly in line with his career track record, but he saw a massive uptick in swinging strikes and punchouts.
The Sam Houston State product struck out 34.8% of batters faced in 2020, nearly ten points higher than his previous career-best mark. Among the 141 relievers with 20+ frames that season, Tepera ranked 15th in strikeout percentage, but he was even more effective on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He generated whiffs on an incredible 19.5% of his offerings, a mark that trailed only those of Devin Williams, Tanner Rainey and Edwin Díaz among that same group. Tepera’s results were overshadowed a bit by the accidental MVP vote he received at the end of the year, but he legitimately had an excellent showing for Chicago.
That improvement came in a small sample, however, and it didn’t seem teams around the league completely bought into his new form. Tepera’s fastball continued to sit in its customary 93 MPH range, and while he did lean more liberally on his excellent cutter-slider, the market didn’t reflect that he’d made significant strides. Tepera re-signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $800K guarantee in February.
He mostly doubled down on his new form over a larger body of work last year. Tepera made 43 appearances and worked 43 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with the Cubs, striking out 30.3% of opponents while cutting his walk rate from 13.5% to 7.3%. As part of their trade deadline teardown, the North Siders flipped him to their crosstown rivals for prospect Bailey Horn, and Tepera continued to excel. He pitched to a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings with the White Sox, fanning 32% of batters faced with a 9.3% walk rate. His 16.3% swinging strike rate was again amongst the league’s best, checking in ninth out of 138 relievers to work 50+ innings.
At 34 years old, Tepera was always a long shot to land a deal that exceeded two years. Yet his back-to-back seasons of strong performance earned him a multi-year pact at a $7MM annual rate. If evenly distributed over the two seasons, that’ll push the Angels’ projected payroll to around $186MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That nudges ahead of last year’s $181MM franchise-record Opening Day expenditure. Their luxury tax ledger will jump to around $202MM — still well shy of this year’s $230MM base threshold.
Los Angeles has invested heavily in the bullpen this winter. They re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias to a four-year contract and have added each of Bradley, Tepera and southpaw Aaron Loup via free agency. They’ll join in-house options like Mike Mayers and Austin Warren as late-game possibilities for manager Joe Maddon.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the Angels and Tepera were working on a deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported an agreement had been reached. MLBTR’s Steve Adams was first to report it was a two-year, $14MM pact.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Reds To Sign Sam McWilliams To Minor League Deal
The Reds have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with righty Sam McWilliams, per Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic.
Originally drafted by the Phillies, McWilliams was part of a couple of trades as a prospect, going to the Diamondbacks for Jeremy Hellickson before later being flipped to the Rays as part of the Steven Souza Jr. trade.
In 2019, he got his first taste of Triple-A, struggling mightily at that level, putting up an ERA of 8.18 in 44 innings there. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, McWilliams reached free agency and signed a Major League deal with the Mets. Yet again, McWilliams struggled, throwing 8 1/3 innings in Triple-A and getting shelled to the tune of a 10.80 ERA. He was designated for assignment and claimed by the Padres, struggling some more before being DFA’d again and clearing waivers.
Ghiroli recently wrote about McWilliams, providing insight into how all this came to be and why teams continue to be interested in the hurler. While the full story is worth a read for all the details, the short version is that McWilliams became a disciple of advanced analytics, greatly improving the speed, spin and shape of his pitches. However, he became overwhelmed in a sea of data and lost the ability to locate his pitches, developing a condition that is commonly known as “the yips.” The data certainly backs that up, as he had a 20.2% walk rate in the minors last year. (Average is usually in the vicinity of 8%.)
McWilliams is now changing his approach and hoping to make the journey back from his struggles, much like Tyler Matzek of the Braves. The yips kept Matzek out of baseball for years, but he made a remarkable comeback that led all the way to a World Series title last year. The Reds are hoping that McWilliams can similarly overcome these obstacles and find the best version of himself. The club has been primarily focused on cost-cutting recently, which involved subtracting Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Amir Garrett from the pitching staff. Taking a flier on a pitcher like McWilliams is a no-risk way of trying to recoup some of those losses without a significant financial investment. McWilliams is only 26 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. He also has a couple of option years remaining, meaning he could be a valuable depth option for the club if he can crack the roster.
Red Sox To Sign Hansel Robles
March 19: Manager Alex Cora confirmed that Robles will be returning to the Red Sox, adding that the right-hander remains in the Dominican Republic as he waits for a visa, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). The deal is a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). If he makes the Major League roster, Robles will make $2.25MM, adds Speier.
March 18: The Red Sox are in agreement with free agent reliever Hansel Robles, reports Mike Rodriguez of Univision (Twitter link).
The 31-year-old is now set to continue his tenure in Boston after being acquired in a deadline deal with the Twins last July. While his overall 4.43 ERA or 12.5% walk rate on the 2021 season won’t wow anyone, the right-hander’s results improved considerably upon joining the Red Sox.
In 25 post-trade innings Robles carried a 3.60 ERA with an impressive 30.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate remained several notches above the league average, but given Boston’s minimal cost of acquisition Robles’s performance was more than acceptable. Further working for the reliever is his ability to take the ball every couple of days, as his 72 appearances topped his previous record of 71 appearances during a strong 2019 season as the Angels’ closer. An ability to be a workhorse out of the bullpen may prove prudent given the injury risk already on display in Boston’s rotation.
Boston’s reunion with Robles through free agency is about as good a relief signing as one can expect at this time of the offseason, particularly with reliever Kenley Jansen‘s departure from the free agent board. Among remaining free agent relief pitchers, Robles has perhaps the best bet of following the high-strikeout, high-walk rate formula that Boston’s pitching staff rode to general success last year.
Tonight’s signing also addresses a weakness in the Sox bullpen, which had a dearth of right-handed relievers behind end-of-game right-handers Garrett Whitlock and Matt Barnes. Three of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s most recent moves have been centered on adding southpaws to the team’s pitching staff, but the addition of Robles should take some pressure off incumbent reliever Hirokazu Sawamura as the team’s go-to right-hander in the middle innings.
Twins Pursuing Frankie Montas
The Twins may not be done upgrading their roster, even after the surprise addition of Carlos Correa overnight. The Twins are talking with the A’s about the availability of Frankie Montas, per Marly Rivera of ESPN (via Twitter).
If there’s an area of the roster that still needs some help, it’s the rotation, even after last week’s acquisition of Sonny Gray. Montas would add significant stability to a rotation that mostly consists of question marks after Gray. Montas, who turns 29 on Monday, is coming off a career year in which he posted a 3.37 ERA/3.37 FIP over a career-high 187 innings while making 32 starts. It was the first time he eclipsed the 100-inning mark in a single season.
That Montas will be dealt is all but a foregone conclusion now that the Athletics have already sent Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Chris Bassitt packing. Now, it’s just a matter of finding the right offer. With the Twins shifting into full-go mode, they might be motivated to meet Oakland’s demands.
After Gray, the Twins are looking at a field of rotation candidates that includes veteran Dylan Bundy, and then a host of arms with little rotation experience, such as Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, Griffin Jax, Drew Strotman, Cole Sands, and Jhoan Duran. Ryan and Strotman were both acquired as part of last year’s sell-off, but both will need time to establish themselves as consistent big leaguers.
Braves To Sign Phil Gosselin To Minors Deal
The Braves are set to sign infielder Phil Gosselin to a minor-league deal, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
Gosselin originally entered the league as a Braves’ draft pick back in 2010 when they selected him in the fifth round out of the University of Virginia. He made his Major League debut with a cup of coffee during the 2013 season. The Braves sent him to Arizona for Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint in June 0f 2015. The Braves briefly claimed him off waivers in 2018, but he did not make it back to the Major League roster with Atlanta that season.
Gosselin saw more playing time in 2021 than at any other time during his big league career, garnering 373 plate appearances with the Angels in his age-32 season. He posted a .261/.314/.362 line, good for an 87 wRC+. He can play all over the diamond, spending most of 2021 split between first base, third base, and left field, though he appeared everywhere in his career except for center field and catcher.
He’ll have the opportunity to compete for a utility role in Atlanta that has recently been held by Ehire Adrianza, Charlie Culberson, and Orlando Arcia, the latter of whom remains on the roster.
Tigers Sign Michael Pineda
March 19: The Tigers have officially announced the deal with a press release. Pineda may be delayed in joining the club, however, as he works to solve issues relating to his visa, per Chris McCosky (via Twitter). Whether or not he’ll be ready to start the reason remains up in the air.
That matters for Pineda, whose contract includes a number of innings bonuses, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Pineda will receive $375K for hitting each of the 50, 75, 100, and 125 inning benchmarks, and he would receive an additional $500K for tossing 150 and 175 innings. In total, that amounts to an extra $2.5MM that he could add to the $5.5MM base sum.
March 18: The Tigers have fortified the back of their rotation, reportedly agreeing to terms with Michael Pineda on a one-year, $5.5MM guarantee. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains another $2.5MM in possible incentives. Pineda is a client of ISE Baseball.
Detroit has ben searching for additional rotation help in recent days. General manager Al Avila acknowledged they made an unsuccessful run at Zack Greinke before he signed with the division-rival Royals. The Tigers were linked to Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, both of whom the A’s have made available via trade. Avila implied yesterday that the Detroit front office might not meet the A’s ask on those two starters, though, and it seems they’ve instead pivoted to Pineda.
Tigers fans have seen plenty of the big right-hander over the past few years. Pineda has spent the last three seasons with the Twins, generally offering capable if not overwhelming production. He worked 282 cumulative innings with Minnesota, pitching to a 3.80 ERA while holding opponents to a .257/.296/.428 slash line. Pineda’s 21.6% strikeout rate in that time was a bit below the league mark, but he only walked 4.8% of batters faced and generally did well to keep the ball in the park.
Pineda’s availability was a bit spotty during his Twins tenure. He had four injured list stints between 2019 and 2021, although none of those stays on the shelf lasted more than a month. He also missed some time late in 2019 and early in 2020 serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. When able to take the mound, Pineda generally performed alright. Last season, he tossed 109 1/3 frames in 22 appearances (21 starts), pitching to a 3.62 ERA.
That came with a career-worst 19.2% strikeout percentage, though. Pineda also averaged a personal-low 90.9 MPH on his fastball and had the lowest swinging strike rate (10.5%) of his eight-year big league career. That seemingly contributed to a lack of leaguewide interest at last summer’s trade deadline, as the Twins held onto Pineda all year despite moving a few players in July amidst a disappointing season.
Pineda’s stock isn’t as high as it had been earlier in his career, but it’s still a plenty sensible dice roll for the Tigers. Detroit has a top four of Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, but the final rotation spot remained up in the air. Swingman Tyler Alexander and non-roster invitees Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta seemed the likeliest candidates for the #5 spot heading into today. Pineda’s signing will presumably push Alexander back into a multi-inning relief role, with Anderson and Peralta competing for depth spots. It’ll also help Detroit brass keep the innings totals of their younger arms in check.
Avila said yesterday the Tigers were prepared to make an offer to Greinke comparable to the $13MM guarantee he received from the Royals. It doesn’t come as much surprise they had enough in the coffers to put less than half that on the table for Pineda. Detroit’s projected player payroll is up to around $129MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above where they’ve been in recent seasons as they’ve been firmly amidst a rebuild, but it’s nowhere near the franchise-record levels of years past (or the luxury tax thresholds). How far owner Chris Ilitch is willing to push isn’t clear, but it stands to reason there may still be some room for the front office to explore further additions.
Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press first reported the Tigers were in agreement with Pineda on a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the financial terms.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Latest On Trevor Story
The Rangers are one of the latest clubs to be linked with free agent shortstop Trevor Story, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. On the surface, it might seem rather absurd that either the Rangers or Story would entertain a union. The Rangers, after all, have already signed two of the top free agent shortstops on the market in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.
But the Rangers have a hole at third base right now, and if Story is indeed willing to entertain a position change and/or a short-term contract, which is the latest, then Story’s fit with in Texas is actually much smoother than it seems at first glance. Even if Story isn’t the target, the Rangers are known to be on the lookout for a third baseman, going so far as to approach the recently-retired Kyle Seager about the possibility of playing along his younger brother in Texas. Seager the elder kindly declined, the offer, however, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
Beyond Story, there aren’t a lot of options left in free agency for the Rangers to add a third baseman. The players available – Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier – are veterans who don’t necessarily upgrade on Texas’ in-house options. Right now, the Rangers would field a third base by committee approach while awaiting the arrival and good health of prospect Josh Jung. Even though he’s injured, Jung’s presence means that the Rangers might only be interested in securing Story if they can do so with a very short-term deal.
Without Story, Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, and Brad Miller are all candidates to get regular playing time at the hot corner. The Rangers also recently signed Matt Carpenter and Charlie Culberson to minor league deals.
If the Rangers were to end up signing Story, it would be a fairly remarkable sequence events, not only because it would mean a 102-loss team signing three of the top free agent shortstops in a single offseason, but because of the sequence of events that have led the Rangers and Story to a place where this could even be possible.
It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers had Isiah Kiner-Falefa ready to return to the hot corner to be their regular third baseman. But when the Rangers traded Kiner-Falefa to the Twins for catcher Mitch Garver, the machinations of the offseason really kicked into high gear. Kiner-Falefa ended up as the Yankees’ pick at shortstop (at least for now), which opened up shortstop again in Minnesota, improbably, for a short-term pact with Carlos Correa. If Story is willing to take a deal similar in style to Correa’s, the Rangers could swoop in and be the beneficiary.
Of course, they’re not the only team with interest. The Yankees themselves have recently been tied to Story as well, despite their recent acquisition of Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson. The Red Sox are also lurking, though like the Rangers, they’d ask Story to move off his preferred position.
Heyman suggests that the Yankees and Astros “likely have an edge” to sign Story because they would allow him to remain at shortstop. The Yankees had reportedly discussed a four-year contract with Correa that included opt-outs before he signed with Minnesota, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). A similar contract structure might be enough to reel in Story, assuming a more modest AAV. Story won’t come cheap, but he’ll be cheaper than Correa, which seems to be fueling the Yankees’ interest. All that said, it’s a bit of an overcrowded fit, with Anthony Rizzo now penciled in at first base, Giancarlo Stanton locking down the DH spot, and Gleyber Torres, Kiner-Falefa, and Donaldson already potentially cutting into DJ LeMahieu‘s playing time.
The Rockies made one last call to Story before inking Kris Bryant, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke, but that door appears to be closed. From the same division, the Giants are the other team that have been mentioned as a potential suitor for Story. The Giants have Brandon Crawford at short, Evan Longoria at third, and Tommy La Stella at second, a trio that would certainly make room for Story, should that be his ultimate landing spot.