MLB Lockout Reader Survey
Today marks Day 26 of the MLB lockout, as we trudge toward the end of the quietest December this website has ever seen. The new year begins Saturday, and there’s an expectation MLB and the players’ union will resume negotiating core economic issues sometime in January.
The collective bargaining agreement expired on December 1st and MLB instituted a lockout, and the time since has been a waste: no notable movement on a new CBA, and of course a freeze on free agent signings and trades. The only dates that seem likely to motivate either side are related to Spring Training. Normally we’d see pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training the week of February 14. And the Spring Training game schedule has been in place for months, with games set to kick off February 26. So February 26 is the next real pressure point, as canceling Spring Training games will result in tangible revenue loss for teams. It’s entirely possible we won’t see any real CBA movement until February.
Seeing as how we’re mired in the first work stoppage of MLBTR’s 16-year history, I’d like to see where our readers stand on several key issues. Check out our eight-question survey below. You can click here for a direct link to it, and click here to view the results.
NPB’s Yomiuri Giants Re-Sign Thyago Vieira, Zelous Wheeler
The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball have re-signed right-hander Thyago Vieira and first baseman/outfielder Zelous Wheeler, according to reports out of Japan. Both players will be entering their third season with the Giants, though Wheeler is a longtime veteran of NPB, having also played with the Rakuten Golden Eagles from 2015-2019.
Vieira tossed 25 2/3 innings over parts of three seasons with the Mariners and White Sox from 2017-19, with a 7.36 ERA to show from this brief taste of the majors. The hard-throwing righty found his groove after joining the Tokyo-based Giants prior to the 2020 campaign, and he has a 3.04 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate over 80 relief innings in the last two seasons. A 12.4% walk rate represents the down side of those numbers, as Vieira’s big fastball has been undermined by a lack of control both in American and Japanese baseball.
Back in October, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that as many as five big league clubs had interest in bringing Vieira back to North America, though no deal materialized prior to the lockout. It could be that Vieira simply preferred to remain in a familiar environment rather than compete with a rush of other pitchers scrambling for contracts once the transactions freeze eventually ends, as there wasn’t necessarily a sure thing that Vieira would even have landed a guaranteed Major League deal.
Wheeler turns 35 next month, and though his only MLB experience was 62 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2014, the veteran is now set to enter his 16th season in pro ball. A 19th-round pick for the Brewers back in 2007, Wheeler spent eight years in the Milwaukee, Baltimore, and New York organizations before embarking on what has become a lengthy stint in Japan. Wheeler has hit .264/.339/.458 with 133 home runs over his 3107 plate appearances in NPB, bouncing back from a down year in 2020 to hit .290/.358/.477 with 15 homers in 439 PA for last season’s Giants club.
KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Socrates Brito, Ronnie Williams
The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed outfielder Socrates Brito and right-hander Ronnie Williams to one-year contracts, the team announced. Reports out of South Korea last week indicated that Brito was joining the Gwangju-based team (hat tip to The Athletic’s Sung Min Kim).
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Brito will earn a $600K salary with another $300K available in contract incentives, with the Yonhap News’ Jeeho Yoo noting that $100K of Brito’s guaranteed money is a signing bonus. Also via Yoo, Williams will get a $300K salary and a $100K signing bonus, with $350K more available in incentives.
Brito has appeared in parts of four MLB seasons, hitting .179/.216/.309 over 218 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays from 2015-19. He signed a minor league contract with the Pirates in 2020 and played at the team’s alternate training site, but opted out of the season in September for tragic reasons, as Brito’s brother passed away from COVID-19. Returning to the field in 2021, Brito hit .251/.315/.376 over 419 PA with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate.
This performance represented a notable step down from Brito’s usual strong Triple-A numbers, as he had always produced in his previous stops with the Diamondbacks’ and Jays’ top farm clubs. Some dropoff isn’t unusual given a full year away from the game, though it was Brito’s first season outside of a Triple-A environment that was very favorable to hitters. Arizona’s Triple-A team played in the Pacific Coast League, while the 2019 season (which Brito spent with Toronto’s Buffalo affiliate) saw offensive numbers explode all across Triple-A baseball.
A trip to the KBO League might be what Brito needs to get his career back on track, as he enters his age 29 season. A noted prospect in his early days with the D’Backs, Brito can play any of the three outfield positions, though he has has more recently been deployed in the corners.
Williams turns 26 in early January, and the righty already has seven seasons of pro experience. A second-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2014 draft, Williams spent his first six years in the St. Louis organization before the Giants claimed him off waivers last winter. The Miami native has a 4.24 ERA and 21.41% strikeout rate over 409 1/3 career innings in the minors, pitching mostly as a reliever over his last three seasons. Only 15 2/3 of those innings came at the Triple-A level, as Williams didn’t reach Triple-A until this year in the Giants’ system.
The $400K (and the incentive possibilities) represent a much higher salary than Williams would have earned in the minors this year, and it makes sense that he would take the guaranteed money now rather than roll the dice on signing another minor league deal and trying to finally crack a big league roster. The Tigers deal also allows Williams for some chance at reinvention, and a chance to showcase his skills for either further opportunities abroad or for MLB scouts.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat
East Notes: Rogers Centre, Ocumarez, Vazquez, Nationals
The Blue Jays are planning extensive renovations at Rogers Centre, as Venues Now’s Don Muret reports that the club will spend $200-$250MM in upgrades to the ballpark. The specifics of the renovations aren’t known, though Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that the work is “likely to include a redesign of the stadium’s lower bowl.” Given the potential scale of the redesigns, Davidi speculates that the renovations may slowly take place over the next few years, with work restricted to the offseason so fans or team personnel won’t be impacted during regular-season games.
Rogers Centre (which opened in 1989) is the seventh-oldest of all active Major League ballparks, and while the Jays were known to be exploring their options for building a new stadium near the current property or perhaps elsewhere in Toronto, the pandemic seems to have changed the team’s plans. Renovating Rogers Centre now seems like the preferred and simpler route for the Blue Jays, rather than spend years finding and developing a new site.
More from both the AL and NL East divisions…
- The Marlins have hired Roman Ocumarez as the team’s new international director, according to ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Twitter link). Ocumarez comes to Miami from the Astros, where he worked as a scout and most recently as an international scouting supervisor. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are just a few of the notable signings credited to Ocumarez, with that particular trio already providing a huge return on the Astros’ total investment of $40K in bonus money. The Marlins will look for Ocumarez to continue that success at finding hidden gems, and carrying on the Marlins’ own history of finding and developing quality international prospects.
- Christian Vazquez has begun playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Vazquez feels the extra work will help him bounce back from a disappointing year at the plate. The Red Sox catcher hit only .258/.308/.352 in 498 plate appearances, and he is now in the final year of his contract after Boston exercised its $7MM club option on Vazquez’s services for 2022. Obviously, better numbers will help re-establish Vazquez as a reliable starting catcher and line him up for his next deal, whether that contract could come with the Sox or another team. There has already been an indication that the Red Sox are looking beyond Vazquez, as the team was reportedly close to acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates before Pittsburgh ultimately dealt the catcher to the Marlins. Speier observes that Vazquez decided to play winter ball of his own volition, as the Red Sox aren’t allowed to be in contact with players due to the lockout, and might well have not permitted the veteran backstop to participate under normal circumstances.
- Relief pitching has been an issue for the Nationals for years, and in looking ahead to next season, the Nats have already acquired Francisco Perez from the Guardians and added three relievers in the minor league Rule 5 Draft. As The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty notes, this can help the Nationals augment a bullpen that has already parted ways with several members of its 2021 relief corps, and is lacking in homegrown minor league relievers who could provide immediate help.
Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber
Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.
However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)
Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:
Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.
How about the last three years?
Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.
Just 2021:
Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.
However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.
Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.
While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?
(poll link for app users)
Who Would You Rather Sign?
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Nick Castellanos 54% (4,306)
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Kyle Schwarber 46% (3,665)
Total votes: 7,971
Troy Tulowitzki Discusses Retirement, Future Plans
It has now been over two years since Troy Tulowitzki announced his retirement from his playing days, and Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post recently caught up with the former superstar and discussed various topics, including how he’s been making use of his post-playing time.
Tulo retired at a relatively young age for a player of his caliber, as he was just 34 at the time. However, it wasn’t his heart or his soul that took him off the field. “I won’t say that I wanted to retire at that point because I still loved playing the game,” he told Saunders. “Unfortunately, my body didn’t let me keep playing.” This isn’t terribly surprising to hear from the man himself, as baseball fans could see the toll injuries were taking on him as his career progressed. After playing over 100 games for five straight seasons from 2007 to 2011, he was limited to 47 games in 2012 and just 91 in 2014. He played two nearly full seasons in 2015 and 2016, but then just 66 games in 2017 before missing the 2018 season entirely. He played five games for the Yanks in 2019 before deciding to hang up his spikes.
Despite the frustrating injuries, Tulowitzki has maintained his passion for the game and is now channeling it into coaching. “The day I announced my retirement, I had already decided I wanted to get started coaching at a major D-I school,” he said, before detailing how he viewed himself as having less natural talent than a phenom like Alex Rodriguez. “But because of all the work that I put in, and how focused I was on my craft, I made myself really good. I know how I got there, and that’s why I’ve always thought coaching was for me.”
Since his retirement, Tulowitzki has been been pursuing his coaching desires, spending time working with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and Athlete Development Program, in addition to a position as volunteer assistant coach for the University of Texas. As noted by Saunders, Tulowitzki quickly became a mentor figure at a young age during his time with the Rockies, and for Nolan Arenado in particular, making the transition to coaching a natural one. “My favorite part is developing the young kids and showing them the ins and outs of the game,” Tulo says.
Does that mean Tulo could return to the big leagues someday? Saunders says that Tulowitzki “has had nibbles from major league teams about possible coaching or working in the front office,” but that Tulo and his wife are busy raising their seven-year-old son, meaning the current role with the University of Texas aligns well with his parenting duties. But he seems open-minded about whatever the future has in store for him, saying, “I just look at it like I did as a player. You just do your job every day and then if you have an opportunity that you like, then you think about it.”
Chris Gittens Signs With Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
First baseman Chris Gittens has agreed to a contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per a team announcement. Gittens was released by the Yankees at the end of November, just prior to the beginning of the lockout. At that time, it was reported that the Yanks had granted him his release in order to allow him to pursue an opportunity with an NPB team.
Gittens has spent the entirety of his professional career thus far in the Yankees organization, having been drafted by them in 2014. Gittens has always hit well in the minors, but has limited roster versatility due to the fact that he’s only ever played first base. In 2021, he played 45 games at Triple-A and absolutely crushed, slashing .301/.440/.644, for an incredible wRC+ of 185. He couldn’t translate that production to the major league level, as he hit .111/.250/.194 in his first season of MLB action. However, due to bouncing between the two levels and sustaining a few injuries, that was a small sample of 44 plate appearances in 16 MLB games.
Gittens was potentially facing a similar situation in 2022, as he still has option years remaining and didn’t have a clear path to playing time in the Bronx. Luke Voit is currently pencilled in at first for the Yanks, and they have also been connected to other first basemen this offseason, such as Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson. There’s also the potential of the club adding to another infield position and pushing DJ Lemahieu into some first base duty.
For Gittens, who turns 28 in February, he will now have greater certainty about his job status and likely an increase in salary as well. If he is able to hit NPB pitching at a level anywhere close to the level he’s shown in the minors, he should be able to garner interest from MLB teams in bringing him back to North America, following the trajectory of other sluggers who returned after overseas success, such as Eric Thames or Darin Ruf.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays had a busy couple of weeks prior to the MLB lockout, but there’s still work to be done when transactions resume. Here’s a look at where things currently stand and what might be next in Tampa Bay.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $182MM through 2032 (includes $2MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2033)
- Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $19MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026)
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $14.5MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
- Brooks Raley, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2024)
- Corey Kluber, RHP: $8MM through 2022
- Mike Zunino, C: $7MM through 2022
- Ji-Man Choi, 1B/DH: $3.2MM through 2022 (arb-eligible through 2023 season)
- Total 2022 guarantees: $41.95MM
- Total long-term commitments: $243.7MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Matt Wisler – $1.8MM
- Manuel Margot – $5.0MM
- Tyler Glasnow – $5.8MM
- Ryan Yarbrough – $4.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos – $1.2MM
- Yandy Diaz – $2.7MM
- Austin Meadows – $4.3MM
- Andrew Kittredge – $1.6MM
- Jalen Beeks – $600K
- Francisco Mejia – $1.5MM
- Jeffrey Springs – $1.0MM
- Brett Phillips – $1.2MM
- Nick Anderson – $900K
The Rays got a huge portion of their offseason lifting done prior to the lockout, extending Wander Franco on a record-setting contract for a player with under a year of service time. By guaranteeing Franco $182MM through the 2032 season, Tampa Bay solidified him as the face of the franchise and locked in a burgeoning star who turned in one of the more memorable rookie performances we’ve seen in recent years.
As is typical with the Rays, their early dealings involved plenty of tinkering with their arbitration class as well as what the team hopes will be some bargain additions on the pitching side. Gone are super-utility man Joey Wendle — traded to the Marlins for outfield prospect Kameron Misner — and lefty masher Jordan Luplow, who was sent to the D-backs for minor league infielder Ronny Simon. The Rays also parted ways with lefties Adam Conley (outrighted), Ryan Sherriff (claimed by the Phillies) and Dietrich Enns (granted his release to sign in Japan). Additionally, pre-arb righties Brent Honeywell (A’s) and Louis Head (Marlins) were swapped for cash.
Incoming arms include former Cy Young reclamation hopeful Corey Kluber, spin-rate standout Brooks Raley, bolstering the rotation and bullpen, respectively. There’s work to be done on both sides of the pitching staff still, however, particularly with ace Tyler Glasnow likely out for the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery. The Rays will also be without Yonny Chirinos early in the year after he fractured his elbow late in the 2021 season while rehabbing from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Lefty Brendan McKay, too, is a question mark after recently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.
Among the potential members of the rotation — Kluber, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane Baz and Luis Patino — only Yarbrough and McClanahan topped 110 innings this past season. Kluber managed just 80 innings and didn’t pitch particularly well in six starts upon returning from the IL late in the season. Yarbrough, meanwhile, posted a career-high 155 innings but also a career-worst 5.11 ERA in that time. Baz dazzled at Double-A, Triple-A and in three big league starts late in the season, but the ballyhooed top prospect was also hit hard in his lone postseason outing. He could follow McClanahan’s lead as a late-season debut who carves out a concrete rotation role the following year — but there’s also still some uncertainty surrounding both him and Patino, another touted top pitching prospect.
Suffice it to say, with plenty of talent but just as many questions surrounding the young arms on the staff, the Rays figure to be on the lookout for some further pitching help. They’re not a likely fit for high-priced free agents still sitting on the market (e.g. Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw), but plenty of veterans who may command one-year deals remain unsigned (e.g. Matthew Boyd, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards and old friend Drew Smyly). Similarly, it’d be a surprise to see the Rays trade for a relatively high-priced starter (e.g. Sean Manaea, Luis Castillo), but president of baseball ops Erik Neander, newly minted GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the Rays staff will be on the lookout for under-the-radar rotation adds (much like they found with Rasmussen during the 2021 season).
Of course, if the Rays were able to cull the current payroll a bit — projected at nearly $84MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez — perhaps there’d be a bit more room for an additional pitching splash. Tampa Bay reportedly discussed Kevin Kiermaier in trades at the same time Joey Wendle was being shopped, and it stands to reason that Kiermaier will again be made available post-lockout. While the Rays have explored Kiermaier trades for years now, the current market circumstances suggest a trade is now likelier than ever.
Kiermaier is entering the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract extension and, at $12MM (plus a $2.5MM buyout on a 2023 option) is the team’s most expensive player in 2022. Excellent as Kiermaier is with the glove, Tampa Bay could move him and still boast arguably the best defensive outfield in baseball, with Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips and center field prospect Josh Lowe (already on the 40-man roster) all possessing high-end defensive skills.
Beyond that, there are several teams who could be eyeing center field upgrades, including the Phillies, Marlins, Astros and Cubs, to name a few. The Rays might have to pay down a bit of Kiermaier’s salary in a deal, although speculatively speaking, they could alternatively look to swap him for a comparably priced player who better fits the team’s needs (e.g. Craig Kimbrel, Jake Odorizzi).
While Kiermaier’s salary makes him a more obvious trade candidate, the Rays could also at least entertain interest in Margot instead, given that he’ll be a free agent next winter. A standout defender in his own right, Margot would hold similar or perhaps even broader appeal to teams with outfield vacancies and a preference for defensive upgrades.
Broadly speaking, when looking ahead for potential Rays moves, it’s always best to consider the possibility of them dealing from positions of great organizational depth. At the moment, that means outfield and perhaps middle infielders. Franco’s extension locks him into the lineup for more than a decade, and Brandon Lowe is signed through at least 2024 on a highly reasonably deal that includes a pair of team options. Meanwhile, the Rays still have well-regarded shortstop prospects like Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards. Both Walls and Brujan have made their big league debuts already. Dealing young prospects of that nature is never easy, and the Rays certainly wouldn’t mind keeping them as bench pieces or upper-level depth options, but they’ll surely receive interest in that perceived surplus. Teams that seek shortstop help in the long run but aren’t willing to pay one of Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, in particular, will be keenly intrigued.
Another general rule when looking for potential Rays moves is to follow the money. In this arbitration class, that means the aforementioned Margot and, perhaps more interestingly, Glasnow. The loss of Glasnow, who had Tommy John surgery Aug. 4, is a major blow to the Rays’ 2022 hopes. The team tendered him a contract knowing he’ll miss most or all of the season, which is only sensible given that he’s controllable through the 2023 campaign. That said, a projected $5.6MM salary for Glasnow amounts largely to dead money for the Rays in ’22, and Glasnow figures to earn that same sum (or a slight bit more, if he makes it back to the mound this year) in 2023 — his final year of team control.
Paying $11-12MM for what’s effectively one season of Glasnow (2023) is hardly burdensome, but for a low-payroll club like the Rays, it’s also not ideal. Tampa Bay surely wouldn’t make a salary-dump deal for a pitcher of this caliber; if the money were an issue he could’ve been non-tendered, so that’s clearly not the case. But, other teams with deeper pockets could also try to opportunistically bolster their 2023 hopes by giving the Rays some immediate help in 2022 at the cost of acquiring Glasnow for the 2023 season. It’s not necessarily a likely outcome, but larger-payroll clubs will undoubtedly inquire at the very least.
An underrated but nonetheless enviable aspect of the Rays is the team’s bench mix. Tampa Bay’s reserves figure to include a blend of versatile defenders (Walls, Brujan, Josh Lowe) and switch-hitters (Walls, Brujan, backup catcher Francisco Mejia) who currently or very recently ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. There’s room for third baseman Yandy Diaz and/or first baseman Ji-Man Choi to be pushed into a part-time role if either Brujan or Walls forces the team to adjust. And, with Franco able to handle third base, Brujan able to handle three infield spots, Brandon Lowe capable of playing second, first or in the outfield, Diaz capable of playing both corners — there’s a virtually limitless number of lineup permutations that could emerge from this grouping.
Whenever play resumes, the Rays will find themselves in a strong position. They already have a deep and talented MLB roster that’ll be anchored by a premium defense and one of the game’s most exciting young talents, Franco. The rotation has its share of question marks, but that’s true on a semi-regular basis and was perhaps never more true than in 2021, when Tampa Bay still went on to win 100 games.
The Rays could take the current iteration of their roster, as-is, into the 2022 season and likely be competitive in the American League East. The front office, however, could also elect to explore trades from the considerable outfield and middle-infield depth, perhaps dropping payroll a bit and then using that combination of trades and increased resources to further supplement the pitching staff. The Rays always have a fairly broad outlook, and that won’t change after the lockout. Whichever path Neander, Bendix & Co. choose to walk, the result figures to be a roster that may lack in name value but will make up for it in talent. In other words: business as usual for the Rays.
Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins
The Marlins sprinted through much of their offseason dealings in the week prior to the MLB lockout, making their biggest free-agent signing under the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group, swinging a pair of trades and extending their top arm. What’s left when the transaction freeze lifts?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Sandy Alcantara, RHP: $56MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout of $21MM club option in 2027)
- Avisail Garcia, OF: $53MM through 2025 (including $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
- Miguel Rojas, SS: $10MM through 2023
- Anthony Bass, RHP: $4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
- $3MM owed annually to Yankees, through 2027, as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
- Total 2022 salary commitments: $26.5MM
- Total long-term commitments: $142MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jesus Aguilar – $7.4MM
- Richard Bleier – $2.5MM
- Joey Wendle — $4MM
- Garrett Cooper – $3.0MM
- Dylan Floro – $2.4MM
- Brian Anderson – $4.5MM
- Jacob Stallings — $2.6MM
- Elieser Hernandez – $1.4MM
- Pablo Lopez – $2.5MM
- Jon Berti – $1.2MM
Miami’s four-year, $53MM contract with Avisail Garcia crossed one of the team’s top items off the wishlist, adding a power-hitting corner outfielder to a lineup that ranked 28th in the Majors in home runs this past season. The four-year term was a surprisingly big bet on a player who does most of his damage against left-handed pitching and has, in two of the past seasons, seen his end-of-year results at the plate clock in well below average. Garcia has hit well in the other three of those five campaigns, and the cumulative result is a solid .278/.335/.464 slash (113 wRC+).
Joining him as newcomers in the lineup will be former Rays infielder Joey Wendle and former Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings. Neither will add much in the way of pop, but Wendle gives the Fish a true super utility option who’s posted a .271/.326/.425 slash over his past 685 plate appearances. Wendle can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base quite well, and the Marlins could give him some outfield reps as well. He’ll be in the lineup more often than not, even if he won’t have a set everyday position.
Stallings, meanwhile, gives the Marlins one of the best defensive backstops in the game and a high-end framer to work with their young pitching staff. He’s hit .246/.333/.371 across the past two seasons and will serve as a major upgrade, on both sides of the ball, over the since-traded Jorge Alfaro (dealt to the Padres on Dec. 1).
Acquiring three new bats obviously represents a pretty sizable chunk of the Marlins’ offseason lifting, but they’re not done shopping just yet. General manager Kim Ng has already made clear that she hopes to add another outfielder to the bunch. Center field is still somewhat up in the air, though Ng said after signing Garcia that the Marlins believe he can play center if needed. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, that’d open the possibility of the Marlins pursuing another corner-outfield option, although playing Garcia in center seems suboptimal from a defensive standpoint. Miami has been tied to Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario, but Castellanos and Schwarber are likely beyond their price range.
Adding another corner option and playing Garcia in center would be something of a surprise, but the free-agent market lacks a true, everyday option in center at this point. There are some center fielders available (e.g. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, Albert Almora Jr.), but none who profile as everyday options offensively. Meanwhile, there are plenty of corner bats who have some experience in center (e.g. Rosario, Joc Pederson), but none who’d profile as a regular in center from a defensive perspective.
If there’s one corner outfielder in particular who makes sense in Miami, it’s perhaps NPB star Seiya Suzuki, whose posting window will resume once the transaction freeze lifts. A star with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp, Suzuki will sign with a big league team in advance of his age-27 season. For a team that’s looking to continue improving but won’t be a division favorite in 2022, Suzuki is an ideal add. He’ll still be in his prime several years down the road, perhaps when Miami’s prospect core has further bolstered the MLB roster. There’s risk in signing a star player who is yet untested against MLB pitching, but that uncertainty also helps to tamp down the price point. Since 2018, Suzuki has batted .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He just won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in right field this past season. If Miami is truly comfortable with Garcia in center, Suzuki becomes a much more interesting name to ponder.
However, the most straightforward path for the Marlins finish off their outfield would be to add a center fielder via the trade market, though the few available options would be tough to pry from their current teams. The Orioles and Pirates will at least listen to offers for Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds, for instance, but both players are controlled four more years and would come with through-the-roof asking prices. It’s a similar story with Arizona’s Ketel Marte, who’s guaranteed $8MM in 2022 before the team has a $10MM club option for 2023 and a $12MM club option for 2024. He’s a bit more expensive and has one fewer year of control, but Marte is the most established player of that trio.
The Marlins do have a wealth of young pitching and managed to acquire Wendle and Stallings without dealing from their very best young arms, but any of Mullins, Marte or Reynolds would require parting with several young talents, likely headlined by a pair of legitimate top prospects.
There could be other, less-talked-about options to pursue. Oakland’s Ramon Laureano will miss the first month-plus of the season while finishing out an 80-game PED ban, but that could perhaps drop the price on him a bit. He’s controlled another three seasons. Kevin Kiermaier will surely be available once again, and while he wouldn’t provide the offense the Fish are hoping to add, he’d follow the Stallings mold in providing one of the most notable defensive upgrades possible.
Speculating further, Miami could try to effectively purchase a prospect or two by bailing the Yankees out of the remainder of their Aaron Hicks deal — they’ve certainly acquired plenty of other former Yankees. Or, perhaps they could go in the other direction and buy low on a former top prospect like Seattle’s Taylor Trammell, who has yet to establish himself and may already be squeezed out of the long-term outlook with the Mariners. There’s a match to be made between the pitching-rich Marlins and the Twins, too, if Miami is comfortable playing Max Kepler in center field regularly.
Whatever route the Marlins go in the outfield, they’ll surely want to keep some playing time free for 24-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 home runs in just 251 plate appearances as a rookie this past season. Sanchez’s 31.1% strikeout rate will need to come down, but he slashed .251/.319/.489 (116 wRC+), securing himself a lengthier look moving forward. Also in line for a larger look is 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz, who hit .296/.356/.427 (albeit with a rather fortunate .380 average on balls in play) after coming over from the Astros in the Yimi Garcia trade. Former top prospect Monte Harrison is out of minor league options and could soon be out of opportunities if and when Miami adds another outfielder, given the options in line ahead of him.
That’s a lot of focus on one outfield spot for Miami, but that’s due largely to the fact that the lineup is otherwise mostly set. Stallings is locked in at catcher, and the Marlins have Jesus Aguilar (first base), Jazz Chisholm (second base), Miguel Rojas (shortstop) and Brian Anderson (third base) rounding out the infield. The aforementioned Wendle and fellow infielder/outfielder Jon Berti provide backup all around the field, while underrated slugger Garrett Cooper and prospect Lewin Diaz provide backups at first base.
In the event the DH is added to the National League, Aguilar could spend more time there in deference to the defensively superior Diaz. If Diaz needs more time in Triple-A, the Marlins could simply let Aguilar and Cooper share first base/DH duties. There’s perhaps room for another addition here to deepen the lineup, but don’t expect the Marlins to break the bank and sign Castellanos, Schwarber or another bat of that magnitude.
In the rotation, the Marlins are largely set, unless they want to bring in a veteran on a minor league deal just for additional depth purposes. Sandy Alcantara, who signed a five-year, $56MM extension that set a record for pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service time, will anchor the staff after ranking fourth in the Majors with 205 2/3 innings pitched this past season. He’ll be followed by breakout lefty Trevor Rogers, who notched a 2.64 ERA through 25 starts as a rookie in 2021. Righties Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez have spots largely assured, health permitting. Lefty Jesus Luzardo may have the inside edge on the fifth spot, but flamethrowing top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera will get their opportunities in 2022 as well.
Even beyond that top seven, the Marlins have enviable depth. Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man roster and all have some big league time under their belts already. The Fish also still have 2020 No. 3 overall pick Max Meyer rising through the ranks. Fellow top prospect Jake Eder will miss 2022 due to Tommy John surgery but is highly touted in his own regard. Right-hander Eury Perez elevated his profile with a huge 2021 season in A-ball, and lefty Dax Fulton is also well-regarded.
Some of those arms — particularly those already on the 40-man — could end up in the bullpen, which is the other area the Marlins could look to upgrade. Dylan Floro, Anthony Bender, Anthony Bass and Richard Bleier are all locks for the ‘pen. Lefty Steven Okert may have earned a 2022 spot as well. Still, there’s no shortage of relief arms available on the market — and the Marlins have spent on some veteran arms at the back of the relief corps in recent offseasons. Sergio Romo, Brandon Kintzler and Bass were all signed as free agents. It’s doubtful Miami would spend at the top of the remaining market (i.e. Kenley Jansen), but another modest one- or two-year deal for an underappreciated veteran seems plenty possible.
Whenever offseason activity finally resumes, the Marlins will still have some work to do — even if they’re not as active as they were in the days leading up to the shutdown. Look for Miami to cast a wide net as they seek one final outfield piece, and don’t be surprised if teams come calling on some of their starting pitchers, given that arguably unrivaled level of depth.
The NL East features the reigning World Series champs, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper) and perhaps the most aggressive owner in the sport right now (the Mets’ Steve Cohen), making it a tough time for the Marlins to be looking to turn the corner. They’ll face a tough road, but with another savvy addition or two and some strides from the young arms on the roster, a playoff push in 2022 isn’t completely out of the question.