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Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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After their first losing season since 2011, the Nationals made several short-term additions to reload the roster for another shot at contention.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

General manager Mike Rizzo is no stranger to generating winter headlines, but there were no true blockbuster additions to the Washington roster this offseason, as the Nats (like most teams around baseball) took a more measured approach to spending in response to the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.  This doesn’t mean Rizzo took it easy, however — the Nationals were one of the offseason’s busier teams, considering the sheer volume of familiar names added on both one-year MLB contracts and minor league deals.

The Nationals waited until late December to make a truly noteworthy transaction, picking up Josh Bell in a trade that sent young right-handers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean to the Pirates.  This was one of Washington’s few moves made with an eye beyond just 2021, as Bell has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he qualifies for free agency after the 2022 season.  Earning $6.3MM this coming, Bell will be a pretty cost-effective piece for D.C. even if he has a good enough season to merit a big arbitration raise next winter, and naturally the club wouldn’t mind such an expenditure if it meant Bell was back to his old self.

The switch-hitting slugger batted just .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances last year, with Bell also posting the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rates of his five-year MLB career.  That performance surely lowered the Pirates’ asking price in trade talks, and the Nationals must feel they’ve bought low on a player who was an All-Star in 2019.  Crowe and Yean are prospects of some note, but not blue-chippers in a Washington farm system that is already pretty deep in pitching.

The Bell trade broke the seal on the Nats’ winter business to some extent, as the team soon thereafter moved on another power bat by bringing Kyle Schwarber to the District.  The Cubs (as part of their own payroll crunch) non-tendered Schwarber after he hit .188/.308/.393 with 11 homers in 224 PA, a big step backwards from the above-average production Schwarber delivered in his previous five years in Wrigleyville.

Adding Bell and Schwarber probably won’t do much to help a Nationals defense that struggled badly in 2020.  What the two sluggers can bring, the Nats hope, is suitable lineup protection hitting behind Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  There is some risk involved if either of the two new faces continue to hit at their 2020 levels, but at least the risk is minimized to just the 2021 season, since D.C. can walk away from either Bell or Schwarber next offseason if things don’t work out.

This type of strategy informed the Nationals’ entire winter, as the team is rolling the dice on a number of bounce-back candidates in hope of landing at least a few bargain scores.  While Washington has shown a willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold (if only by a bit) in the past, the club would surely like to avoid another tax payment if possible, and the Nats are estimated to sit roughly $13.25MM below the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax limit.  It leaves the team with a bit of breathing room for midseason additions, though the Nationals’ number will escalate depending on how many of their minor league signings make the roster and lock in guaranteed salaries.

Washington could have saved itself $500K if the team had just claimed Brad Hand on waivers last October, as Hand’s $10MM club option (that was eventually declined by the Indians) was less than the $10.5MM deal that Hand signed with D.C. in January.  Still, the Nats weren’t alone in passing on Hand at that time, quite possibly because they and other clubs didn’t have their 2021 budgets planned at that point in the offseason.

An “extra” $500K also isn’t exactly a big price to pay for a former three-time All-Star.  Though Hand’s velocity and strikeout numbers dropped a bit in 2020, he still posted some very strong numbers as Cleveland’s closer.  Hand is an easy replacement for Sean Doolittle (who struggled last year and left for the Reds in free agency) and his addition could help stabilize a Nationals relief corps that has been a weak spot for years.

Unfortunately, as is often the case with the Washington bullpen, new problems emerge as quickly as old problems are corrected.  Will Harris’ status is in question due to a blood clot in his right arm, while Tanner Rainey has yet to pitch this spring due to a muscle strain near his collarbone.  This opens the door for one of many relievers in camp on minor league deals (such as Javy Guerra, T.J. McFarland, Luis Avilan, Aaron Barrett, and more) to win jobs, or the Nationals could fill at least one bullpen role with one of the pitchers who doesn’t win the fifth spot in the rotation.

Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth are all out of options, so the Nats will have to figure out a way to keep them on the big league roster unless they want to risk losing any of the hurlers on a waiver placement.  D.C. can ill-afford losing a starter-capable arm for nothing, both because innings will be harder to fill this season, and because there is a fair amount of injury risk within the veteran top four of Washington’s rotation.

Stephen Strasburg tops this list, as the right-hander has been slowed by a calf injury this spring after missing all but two starts of 2020 due to carpal tunnel syndrome.  Between Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin, the Nationals reinforced this experienced group with an even older pitcher in 37-year-old Jon Lester.  It has been some time since Lester was a true top-of-the-rotation force, and his 5.16 ERA in 2020 (albeit over only 61 innings) was the worst of his career.  While the Nats obviously think Lester can improve on that statistic in a more normal season, Lester’s primary function will be to act as a durable innings-eater.

Returning to the position-player side, the Nationals said goodbye to several regulars from their World Series team, as Adam Eaton (White Sox), Michael A. Taylor (Royals), Kurt Suzuki (Angels), and Asdrubal Cabrera (Diamondbacks) all left the District as free agents and Howie Kendrick decided to retire.  Some familiar faces were retained, however, as the Nats worked out a new contract with longtime franchise stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, and utilityman Josh Harrison was re-signed for a second season with the club.

Zimmerman will serve as Bell’s backup, while Harrison could end up in a more significant role given the unsettled state of the D.C. infield.  On paper, Harrison will play much everywhere on the diamond in a super-utility capacity.  In practice, however, Harrison might end up getting more regular work in the infield since Carter Kieboom has followed up a rough 2020 season with a lack of production in Spring Training.  (Kieboom was also mentioned in trade rumors over the winter.)  It is possible the Nationals could end up using Starlin Castro at third base and Luis Garcia as the regular second baseman, but since Garcia is also inexperienced, having a versatile veteran like Harrison on hand becomes even more important.

The Nationals did at least consider making a much bigger splash to their everyday lineup, as such free agents and trade targets as D.J. LeMahieu, J.T. Realmuto, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant were all reportedly considered at different points in the offseason.  While Harrison, Alex Avila or (“Baby Shark” sing-alongs notwithstanding) Gerardo Parra don’t have the same cache as those star names, it seems like Washington is opting to wait until next winter to start considering more big-ticket additions.

Only three players are on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season, though the trio of Corbin, Harris, and Strasburg accounts for $67MM in payroll (roughly $11.5MM of Strasburg’s salary is deferred).  As well, the Nationals are surely hoping that some of their payroll space will be taken up by long-term extensions with Soto and Turner.  A Soto extension might well be the priciest contract in baseball history, while Turner is more of an immediately pressing concern, since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season and Turner only through 2022.  Scherzer is also entering his final year under contract, and it’s probably safe to assume the Nats will have some talks about another deal for their longtime ace.

It makes for an interesting dynamic heading into 2021, as the Nationals will challenge for a return to the playoffs, but they are also well-positioned to pivot into being deadline sellers should they fall out of contention.  The 2022 Nationals may look quite different, but there is still enough of the old championship core remaining this year for Washington to make a proper 162-game defense of the 2019 World Series title.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Nationals' offseason
B 50.28% (1,346 votes)
C 33.40% (894 votes)
A 8.22% (220 votes)
D 5.16% (138 votes)
F 2.95% (79 votes)
Total Votes: 2,677

Astros, Lance McCullers Jr. “Deep” Into Extension Talks

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9:19pm: The Astros have made a “strong” offer to McCullers, and they’re “deep” in talks with him, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes.

5:37pm: Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., who’s in the last year of his contract, tweeted last month that he hadn’t heard from the Astros about an extension, but that has changed. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Astros have made a long-term offer to the Boras Corporation client. Details of the proposal are unknown, and Heyman adds that it’s unclear whether the two sides will get a deal done.

A career-long Astro, McCullers made his major league debut with the club in 2015 and has since produced quality results. The 27-year-old owns a 3.70 ERA/3.61 SIERA with above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 9.3, respectively. The problem, if there is one, is that McCullers hasn’t been particularly durable in the bigs. He topped out at 128 1/3 innings in 2018 and has accrued just 508 2/3 frames during his career.

McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery before 2019, causing him to miss all of that season, but he did get through last year unscathed. He rebounded from the procedure to finish second among Astros in starts (11) and third in innings (55), recording a 3.93 ERA/3.95 SIERA and a sterling 59.7 percent groundball rate along the way.

Despite the health issues that have dogged him in the majors, McCullers should do well on his next contract. His track record and age should make him one of the most appealing starters on the open market, but the Astros may prevent him from getting there. Of course, the Astros also have a few other high-profile free agents-to-be – including righties Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander and shortstop Carlos Correa – so general manager James Click & Co. have a lot of work to do over the next several months.

Adbert Alzolay Has Fourth Minor League Option

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The Cubs had been unsure whether right-hander Adbert Alzolay had a fourth minor league option, but they know now: An arbiter decided that he does, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago.

This is good news for the Cubs, who will be able to demote Alzolay this season without worrying about losing him to another team. The 26-year-old hasn’t made a good case for a roster spot this spring, having yielded eight runs (seven earned) over four innings. He was much better in 2020, when he logged a 2.95 ERA/4.15 SIERA and posted 29 strikeouts – albeit with 13 walks  – in 21 1/3 frames.

Alzolay made four starts last year, and it seems likely he’ll factor into the Cubs’ rotation again this season. However, knowing the Cubs can demote him, Alzolay is far from a lock to begin 2021 in the majors. Instead, Chicago could open the campaign with Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies, Trevor Williams and either Alec Mills or Shelby Miller comprising its starting staff.

Twins Option Alex Kirilloff

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The Twins have optioned outfielder Alex Kirilloff to their alternate trainng site, per a team announcement. The move means Kirilloff will not make the Twins’ Opening Day roster.

The 23-year-old Kirilloff was a first-round pick in 2016 who has ranked as one of baseball’s best prospects over the past couple seasons. Kirilloff had a chance to claim a spot on the Twins’ roster this spring in the aftermath of Eddie Rosario’s departure, but the .129/.182/.258 line he posted in 31 exhibition at-bats didn’t suggest to the team that he was ready for a role in the majors. With Kirilloff on his way down, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick and Jake Cave are all candidates to join Byron Buxton and Max Kepler as the Twins’ outfielders when the season starts, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune.

Kirilloff’s demotion could buy the Twins an extra year of control over him, though it’s unclear whether that motivated the team to send him down. After all, along with his struggles this spring, Kiriloff hasn’t played above the Double-A level yet. He hit .283/.343/.413 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases there across 411 plate appearances in 2019.

Latest On Zac Gallen

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MARCH 23: Gallen has a “hairline stress fracture of his right lateral forearm at the radial end,” Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets. Gallen can keep playing catch at a low-stress level, but there’s no timeline for his return.

MARCH 22: Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen was scratched from his scheduled Cactus League start today due to right lateral forearm soreness, manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter links) and other media.

Gallen is still being evaluated, and he has been receiving treatment on the problem for the last 10 days.  This would seem to indicate that Gallen has been dealing with the injury through at least one of his last two spring outings, though it hasn’t seemed to impact his results — the righty has a 2.13 ERA through four games and 12 2/3 innings during Spring Training.

Somewhat unusually, Gallen’s problem emerged while swinging a bat rather than throwing.  He told Gilbert and other reporters that his forearm began to feel sore after he was jammed with a pitch while taking swings in a batting cage.  (Should Gallen’s injury prove to be serious, he could quite possibly become the face of the dispute over the universal DH not being re-implemented for the 2021 season.)  In terms of pitching, Gallen said he was able to throw most of his pitches without issue, only feeling soreness when throwing a curveball.

Needless to say, the D’Backs will be as cautious as possible in monitoring any sort of forearm problem for a pitcher who looks to be the burgeoning ace of the rotation.  Gallen has been very impressive over 152 career MLB innings with the Marlins and Diamondbacks, posting a 2.78 ERA/408 SIERA and an above-average 28.5K%.  Gallen had some control issues in his 2019 rookie season but reduced his walk rate from 10.8% in 2019 to 8.6% in 2020.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Exits Game With Left Shoulder Discomfort

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5:56pm: Tatis is “fine,” a source told Acee.

5:04pm: Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. exited the team’s game against the Reds on Tuesday with discomfort in his left (non-throwing) shoulder, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune was among those to report. The club will re-evaluate Tatis on Wednesday.

There is no indication Tatis is dealing with a major injury, but if it a serious issue, it would be an awful development for the Padres. They’re coming off a tremendous 2020, an active offseason and hoping to knock the reigning World Series champion Dodgers off the National League West perch this year. For that to happen, the Padres will need a healthy Tatis, a 22-year-old who has established himself as a star since his 2019 debut. Tatis was so effective over his first two seasons, in which he slashed .301/.374/.582 with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases over 629 plate appearances, that the Padres signed him to a 14-year, $340MM extension last month.

In the event of a worst-case scenario that would force Tatis to miss time, the Padres do have at least one viable replacement on their bench. Ha-Seong Kim – who thrived in Korea before joining the Padres on a four-year, $28MM guarantee in the offseason – has a great deal of professional experience at the position, where he played 776 games in the KBO.

Erick Fedde No Longer Has Fourth Option

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An arbiter has ruled that Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde does not have a fourth minor league option season, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link). That means that Fedde, a former first-round pick, is now out of minor league options and thus cannot be sent to Triple-A without first being exposed to waivers.

As MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman outlined in February 2020, the Nationals were granted a fourth option over Fedde for the 2020 season because the league’s rules stipulate that such an option be granted when a player has exhausted all three minor league options despite not completing five “full” seasons (between the Majors and Minors combined).

A “full” season, under those terms, entails 90 or more days on an active roster, be it a big league or minor league roster. Time on the injured list does not count toward that definition. As such, Fedde’s 2015 season — what would’ve been his first “full” season after being drafted 18th overall in 2014 — did not count because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery for much of the year and did not accrue the requisite 90 days. Heading into the 2020 season, he’d played four “full” seasons but expended all of his options. A fourth option was granted to the Nats.

The Nationals didn’t use that option last year on Fedde, keeping him at the MLB level all season. The confusion surrounding Fedde, and others, was whether last year’s shortened schedule constituted a “full” season. It was fewer than 90 days in length, but service time and salary were prorated, so it could be argued that time on the roster for the purposes of determining minor league option eligibility should be treated similarly. Fedde and agent Scott Boras likely appealed that because he spent the 2020 season on the roster for the maximum time possible (67 days), he now has five “full” seasons under his belt, voiding the fourth option.

It’s a notable development for the Nationals’ pitching staff. Fedde had previously looked to be a potential odd man out behind fellow righties Joe Ross, the likely fifth starter, and Austin Voth, who’ll likely open the year in the ’pen. Both Ross and Voth had a leg up in the competition by virtue of the fact that they were out of minor league options, but Fedde is now in a similar position and thus much more likely to make the Opening Day roster.

There’s room for the Nats to carry all three hurlers, but the sudden lack of an option for Fedde would deprive them of some bullpen flexibility. Brad Hand, Tanner Rainey and Daniel Hudson obviously aren’t going anywhere at the back of the ’pen, and Wander Suero seems to be on solid ground as well. Voth is quite likely penciled into a long relief spot because of his own lack of options. Adding Fedde to that mix could make it tougher for a non-roster hopeful like Javy Guerra, Luis Avilan or T.J. McFarland to crack the roster. It’s also not great news for 40-man relievers like Kyle Finnegan and Ryne Harper, each of whom does have minor league options remaining.

Earlier this spring it came to light that several players were awaiting word on whether they do or do not have a fourth minor league option. The Cardinals’ Justin Williams, the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay and the Angels’ Jaime Barria were among the many players who are currently in this state of limbo. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeted earlier this afternoon that some from that group have been informed that they are indeed out of options, so it seems Fedde is the first known player among that bunch.

Phillies Facing Decisions On Veteran Relievers

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The Phillies will soon have several decisions on their hands as veterans Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson and Hector Rondon all have Wednesday opt-outs in their respective minor league deals with the club, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The Phillies’ 40-man roster is full at the moment and doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, so there aren’t any injury situations that could clear up a roster spot. Lauber notes that manager Joe Girardi prefers to carry a five-man bench and an eight-man bullpen, too, so it doesn’t seem likely that the Phils will simply carry an extra reliever early in the year. Kintzler has had the best showing of the three this spring, tossing 7 2/3 shutout frames. Watson would give the Phillies an experienced lefty to pair with the inconsistent Jose Alvarado and/or the yet-unproven JoJo Romero.

There are also luxury tax implications tied to these decisions — particularly with regard to Kintzler and Watson. Both signed minor league deals with rather hefty $3MM guarantees should they make the club. Rondon’s deal calls for a $1.5MM base if he makes the team. All three relievers could also earn at least an additional $1MM via incentives.

With veteran outfielder Matt Joyce also on a minor league pact, the Phils have too many non-roster veterans to carry them all without going over the $210MM luxury barrier. They’re currently about $8.3MM shy of that mark, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and most clubs prefer to leave themselves at least some slight wiggle room for in-season dealings.

There’s been some speculation throughout camp about the possibility of a Vince Velasquez trade, which would free up $4MM of breathing room. The right-hander’s upside has long tantalized the organization, and he has at times flashed brilliance in the Philadelphia rotation. But Velasquez has yet to demonstrate much consistency through parts of five seasons. It’s also worth noting that since the Phils made the decision to tender him a contract, they’ve hired a new president of baseball operations (Dave Dombrowski), a new general manager (Sam Fuld) and signed a pair of veteran arms to fill out the rotation: Chase Anderson and Matt Moore.

Velasquez himself told reporters earlier this spring that he knew he wasn’t a lock to be tendered a contract, and Lauber has previously reported that the Phillies at least “gauged interest” in Velasquez even after tendering him a contract. The situation is complicated somewhat by the fact that Velasquez has been sidelined by an oblique issue of late (link via MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki), though he threw from 60 feet over the weekend.

As has been well-documented by now, teams are going to be more reliant on their rotation depth than ever before while monitoring workloads in the wake of last year’s shortened season. Because of that, there’s good reason to keep Velasquez around — even if he’s in the bullpen as a long man to begin the season. That appears the likeliest outcome at this point, leaving the Phils with some crucial decisions to make by week’s end. Opt-out clauses in minor league deals typically give a club 48 hours to put the player in question on the roster.

Mariners Release Gerson Bautista

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The Mariners announced a slate of roster moves last night, reducing their spring roster to 48 players. Among the most notable cuts: right-hander Gerson Bautista was released from the organization.

This marks the second time that the Mariners organization has parted ways with Bautista, although the circumstances are different. Seattle outrighted Bautista off its 40-man roster at the end of the 2020 season after he missed the year due to a flexor strain in his pitching arm, and he was able to elect free agency thereafter. He quickly returned on a new minor league deal, signing back with the Mariners just two weeks later.

That’s not the case this time around, as Bautista wasn’t on the 40-man roster and has been able to pitch this spring — but has not done so effectively. The hard-throwing 25-year-old served up three runs in 5 1/3 innings, which isn’t necessarily alarming on its own, but he did so on the strength of seven hits and six walks without recording a strikeout. Small sample or not, six walks against no strikeouts through 26 batters faced isn’t an encouraging omen for any pitcher — particularly one who punched out 27.5 percent of his opponents at the Triple-A level. Bautista came to the Mariners alongside Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster with the Mets, and it seems he may now be destined for a new organization.

The Mariners also optioned righty Yohan Ramirez to Triple-A to begin the season after the righty accrued a full year of service in their bullpen last year. Ramirez posted a strong 2.61 ERA and whiffed 26 batters in 20 2/3 frames, so some may be a bit surprised by his demotion. However, in spite of that impressive ERA, he also issued 20 walks, plunked four hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. His control could clearly use some refinement, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that he’s also been behind after spending time away from the club due to Covid-19 protocols. Ramirez tossed just one inning in an official game this spring and, despite not yielding a hit, allowed a pair of runs on a walk, two hit batters and two wild pitches.

It’s also notable that top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert was reassigned to a minor league camp. The former first-rounder only made one Cactus League start, and given his lack of pro experience — just one full season, in 2019 — that wouldn’t have registered as much of a surprise. However, former CEO Kevin Mather suggested during the interview that led to his resignation that Gilbert wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster but would be in the Majors “by mid-April.” As such, the right-hander’s timeline to the big leagues will be interesting to monitor. He’s yet to pitch above Double-A, where he started nine games in 2019. In a total of 135 frames between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A that year, Gilbert worked to a combined 2.13 ERA with a gaudy 31.7 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate.

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