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Grading Jason Heyward’s Career (So Far)

By Connor Byrne | May 11, 2020 at 10:28pm CDT

It would be an understatement to say the Cubs’ Jason Heyward has had an eventful career in professional baseball. Heyward was the 14th pick of the Braves in the 2007 draft, and the Georgia-raised outfielder’s star continued to rise thereafter. As a prospect, Heyward topped out as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall farmhand after the 2009 season.

“Even if he opens 2010 at Triple-A Gwinnett, Heyward will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the year, and he has all the ability to emerge as one of the game’s premier players,” BA wrote then.

The towering Heyward did not start 2010 in the minors, though, instead beginning as the Braves’ top right fielder. And he made an enormous impact from the get-go, smashing a first-inning, three-run homer off Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano in his initial at-bat. The Braves went on to win that game and 90 more en route to a wild-card berth, owing in no small part to a 4.6-fWAR Heyward effort in which he batted .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances.

It seemed that the rookie version of Heyward was indeed destined for greatness, but his career hasn’t been particularly consistent since then. Heyward remained a Brave from 2011-14, a 2,196-plate appearance run in which he batted .258/.340/.422 with 14.9 fWAR, but they decided after the last of those seasons to trade the homegrown standout to the Cardinals in a deal for right-hander Shelby Miller. That wasn’t indefensible from the Braves’ point of view, as Miller was then an up-and-coming starter with a few years’ team control remaining and Heyward had just one season left before reaching free agency.

[RELATED: Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing]

If you go by fWAR, Heyward had his best in St. Louis (5.6), hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals in 610 PA. Heyward was part of a 100-win team that year, but after the Cardinals bowed out of the NLDS against the Cubs, the free agent went to … the Cubs. They handed him an eight-year, $184MM guarantee, but Heyward’s regular-season numbers have fallen flat dating back to then. During his first four years as a Cub, Heyward batted an underwhelming .252/.327/.383 line across 2,151 trips to the plate, leading to 6.0 fWAR. Heyward’s typically outstanding defense has kept him afloat, as he has logged 42 Defensive Runs Saved and a 27.2 Ultimate Zone Rating as a Chicago outfielder (overall, he has put up 143 DRS with a 99.5 UZR as a big leaguer). Of course, it’s not always just about statistics.

On Nov. 2, 2016, the Cubs and Indians were tied 6-6 through nine innings and stuck in a rain delay in Game 7 of the World Series. It was two teams trying to break long championship droughts, but on Chicago’s side, Heyward went into Knute Rockne mode in the locker room.

“We’re the best team in baseball, and we’re the best team in baseball for a reason,” Heyward told his teammates (via Tom Verducci’s book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best Team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse“). “Now we’re going to show it. We play like the score is nothing-nothing. We’ve got to stay positive and fight for your brothers. Stick together and we’re going to win this game.” 

“Right then I thought, We’re winning this f—— game!,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.

The Cubs did just that when the 17-minute delay ended, defeating the Indians in the 10th to pick up their first title in 108 years. It’s hard to quantify how much Heyward meant to that team on an emotional level. He went 0-for-5 in that game and posted a miserable .307 OPS during the postseason, which came after he recorded a personal-worst 72 wRC+ in the regular season, but that Game 7 speech will always live in Cubs lore.

While the Cubs haven’t won another title since 2016, Heyward’s production has trended upward going back to then, as he has been something close to a league-average hitter. Still, that’s not great for a former can’t-miss prospect who’s owed another $86MM through 2023. In all, Heyward has been a bit better than average as an offensive player during his career, having batted .261/.343/.412 (107 wRC+) with 144 homers and 110 steals in 5,580 PA. However, consistently stellar defense has helped the 30-year-old accumulate 31.1 fWAR, which is a higher amount than the vast majority of major leaguers have piled up, and he may have helped key a Cubs title behind the scenes. All things considered, how would you grade his career to this point?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jason Heyward

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Boras Argues Against “Renegotiation” Of 2020 Salary Terms

By Jeff Todd | May 11, 2020 at 9:00pm CDT

While most of his peers stay out of the spotlight, super-agent Scott Boras has as usual been less than shy about sharing his opinion during the coronavirus pandemic. Boras spoke again today with SI.com’s Stephanie Apstein, espousing a firm position for players in their negotiations with Major League Baseball.

To be sure, Boras largely echoed union chief Tony Clark in terms of takeaway. Both are holding the line that they won’t accept a salary cut pegged to 2020 revenues, as the owners are set to propose. And they each maintain that a late-March MLB-MLBPA agreement determined that players should receive pro rata pay for any games played, regardless whether fans are in attendance.

So, why highlight his latest comments?

As I recently explained in covering the still-developing dispute between league and labor regarding that late-March deal, the issue boils down to some strange ambiguity that appears in the contract. While a “player compensation” section provides for straightforward salary reduction based upon the number of games played, the sides also agreed in another clause to “discuss in good faith the economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators.”

In short, there’s a legal question of contract interpretation that bears heavily upon the strategic/practical question of how hard each side wants to push its position in negotiations and public posturing. Boras’s comments — always worthy of attention given his unmatched stable of clients — speak to both of those questions.

Here’s how the polarizing player rep stated things (emphasis mine):

“The players I represent are unified in that they reached an agreement and they sacrificed anywhere from 30 to 40% of their salaries so that the games could amicably continue. The owners represented during that negotiation that they could operate without fans in the ballpark. Based on that, we reached an agreement and there will not be a renegotiation of that agreement.”

Let’s discuss the matter of contract interpretation first. It remains a mystery as to why the MLB-MLBPA agreement did not speak clearly upon the question of how to handle a season without fans (or expressly reserve that matter in its entirety). Given the ambiguity, an arbitration panel or court considering that question might look not only to the agreement itself, but (among other things) to the statements made by the parties during negotiations — particularly to the extent they were reasonably relied upon by the other bargaining side.

Details remain elusive here, but this appears to be the first public allegation that the league side did or said something during the negotiations of that agreement that should impact how it’s interpreted. Boras says that the owners “represented” something about operating sans spectators, seemingly implying that the union side has something to buttress its stance on salary beyond the bare terms of the agreement itself. It’s impossible to assess given what we know and don’t know publicly, but it’s theoretically possible that a statement made during negotiations could substantially impact the outcome of a legal battle — if we ever see one.

If the union really feels it has a compelling legal case, then it could be emboldened to hold the line. Even if the late-March deal doesn’t establish an absolute right to pro rata salaries, evidence of the sort Boras suggests (assuming the player side can produce it) might well support a more favorable reading of the agreement. For example, it’s conceivable a court might read the notion of a “good faith” discussion of “economic feasibility” as requiring the league to turn over certain financial information to the players — particularly given that the league proposal is to tie salary to revenue — and perhaps also to make some sort of showing of infeasibility to open talks on lowered salaries.

Will the players actually hold the line on this point and demand that they receive full pro rata salary for whatever games are staged, whether or not fans are in the seats? Boras speaks to that as well. When he suggests unity among his clients, that means that he purports to speak for many of the game’s most-visible and best-compensated players. And he indicates that they’ll speak with one voice in declining to (as he presents it) renegotiate the agreement on the matter of compensation.

Even before you get to the question of which side you think is morally justified, if any, there’s still much we don’t know about what the parties of interest are really aiming to accomplish with the present jockeying. Is the league putting the squeeze on the union to get some added concessions? Perhaps Boras is being tasked with pit bull duties while Clark holds the line and the players put a more sympathetic face on the labor position. Could it really be that the sides are squaring up for a brutal and very public battle, all against a backdrop of a pandemic and long-building grievances? It’s not yet clear. But Boras’s comments do tell us that, at minimum, the player side (or at least his segment of it) wants MLB to believe that it will stand on an aggressive position on the matter of salary, come what may.

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Players Weigh In On Plans For 2020 Season

By Jeff Todd | May 11, 2020 at 7:53pm CDT

As the league and union engage in some pre-bargaining media battles regarding player pay in a coronavirus-altered 2020 season, it’s worth remembering that health and safety remain the top priorities. Many of the players themselves have emphasized as much in recent public comments.

Athletics southpaw Jake Diekman is among those focused on health precautions, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. He’s potentially at risk due to his ulcerative colitis condition and is also concerned with the well-being of his young family.

Testing could offer a means of dealing with the matter. Diekman conveyed optimism over starting up a campaign. But he also noted the need to consider broader public health considerations, posing the question: “if they’re going to test us all the time, are we taking tests from people who really need it?”

Fellow lefty Sean Doolittle of the Nationals also weighed in with a long and thoughtful Twitter thread. He focused on both the many potential ways that COVID-19 could impact players — even those that don’t know of preexisting conditions — in addition to the need to protect all the other workers associated with the game.

In a longer look at multiple perspectives, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic gathered the thoughts of many players that have known risk factors in a subscription piece. The consensus seems to be that they’re ready to play with adequate precautions. But as Rosenthal also notes, for all those whose underlying conditions are known, there are many players who are dealing with health concerns of which the public is not aware. And many are also surely worrying about loved ones at home.

Still doubt the seriousness of the matter from the players’ perspective? Cardinals hurler and union leader Andrew Miller — ironically, the third lefty reliever cited in this post — tells Rosenthal it is truly the chief concern: “We’re wasting our breath with everything else if we don’t have that under wraps.”

That’s not to say there isn’t a clear financial element to the MLB-MLBPA grappling. Rosenthal notes that the players are particularly determined to hold the line on salary because of the extra health risks of playing during a pandemic.

While he’s not a current player, recently retired hurler Phil Hughes weighed in on Twitter. He says that “players won’t be strong-armed into unsafe work conditions and unfair compensation” — a characterization that drew some rebukes on everyone’s favorite forum for social interaction.

We’ve been through this millionaires vs. billionaires discussion innumerable times before and surely will keep doing so as long as Major League Baseball exists. As ever, it’s only fair to note that, while many of the athletes are extremely well-compensated, earnings are condensed to generally short playing careers and most professional ballplayers will never see big money. And even the richest players are still far less wealthy than the owners on the other side of the table.

It’s never pleasant to see relatively advantaged parties squabbling over riches, but surely players shouldn’t be blamed for generally seeking the best possible conditions and compensation they can bargain for from ownership within a given set of circumstances. Indeed, that’s just what the collective bargaining process entails. In this case, both sides of the game’s economic system have quite a lot to gain from structuring a smart resumption of play — and quite a lot to lose from a breakdown in talks or a bungled re-launch.

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Remembering The No. 1 Picks Of The 1990s

By Connor Byrne | May 11, 2020 at 7:05pm CDT

We know the 2020 Major League Baseball draft is going to be unconventional, an event that will last a mere five rounds compared to the 40 we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Regardless, the team with the No. 1 overall pick – Detroit – is in the best position to land a future superstar. But how many recent top choices have actually panned out? Let’s start in the 1990s, and you can be the judge…

1990: Chipper Jones, Braves:

  • What a success. The former third baseman/outfielder is now a Hall of Famer after spending his entire career with the Braves from 1993-2012. In his first full season, 1995, Jones helped the Braves to their most recent World Series title. Overall, Jones slashed .303/.401/.529 with 468 home runs, 150 stolen bases and 84.6 fWAR, and made eight All-Star teams.

1991: Brien Taylor, Yankees:

  • This couldn’t have gone much worse, as former FanGraphs writer Mike Axisa noted back in 2012. Off-field problems helped prevent the left-handed Taylor from ever taking a major league mound. He’s one of just four No. 1 picks to never get to the league.

1992: Phil Nevin, Astros:

  • Nevin carved out a decent career as a member of several teams from 1995-2006, during which he hit .270/.343/.472 with 208 home runs and 15.2 fWAR, but made little impact with the Astros. They traded him to the Tigers for righty Mike Henneman in 2006. Nevin may be best known as the player the Astros chose five picks before Derek Jeter. Then-Astros scout Hal Newhouser was so insistent Houston should pick Jeter that he quit his job when it didn’t happen.

1993: Alex Rodriguez, Mariners:

  • Good work, Seattle. Rodriguez didn’t last that long with the Mariners (1994-2000), but he made four All-Star teams and batted .309/.374/.561 with 189 homers, 133 steals and 35.0 fWAR during that span. You can’t argue with those results, nor do his next teams – the Rangers or Yankees – regret the numbers he turned in later in his career. Peformance-enhancing drug issues have made the ex-shortstop/third baaseman a polarizing figure, however.

1994: Paul Wilson, Mets:

  • Wilson did pitch in the majors, but he only tossed 149 innings with the Mets (all in 1996) and didn’t log a single frame in the bigs from 1997-99. He did amass almost 800 more innings between the Rays and Reds from 2000-05, but didn’t exactly wow with a lifetime 4.86 ERA.

1995: Darin Erstad, Angels:

  • The former Nebraska punter won three Gold Glovees, made two All-Star teams and helped the Angels to their lone World Series title in 2002. Erstad – an outfielder/first baseman – finished his career in 2009 as a .282/.336/.407 hitter with 124 homers, 179 steals and 28.5 fWAR.

1996: Kris Benson, Pirates:

  • He was never an ace, but the righty had a reasonably productive career, finishing with a 4.42 ERA and 14.8 fWAR in a combined 206 games with the Pirates, Mets, Orioles, Rangers and Diamondbacks from 1999-2010.

1997: Matt Anderson, Tigers:

  • Four of the top five picks in this draft (J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Jason Grilli and Vernon Wells) became All-Stars. The lone exception was Anderson, a righty who only produced 0.5 fWAR in 256 2/3 innings between the Tigers and Rockies from 1998-2005.

1998: Pat Burrell, Phillies:

  • Burrell wasn’t a superstar, but he had a solid career, winding up with a .253/.361/.472 line, 292 HRs and 19.0 fWAR among the Phillies, Rays and Giants from 2000-11. He won two World Series – one with the Phils and another with the Giants.

1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays:

  • Hamilton’s off-field troubles were well-documented during his career, and he never played for the Rays as a result. They left Hamilton unprotected in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs selected him before trading him to the Reds. Hamilton thrived in Cincinnati in 2007 before the team traded him to the Rangers in a deal that sent righty Edinson Volquez to the Reds. That proved to be a steal for the Rangers, with whom Hamilton was a five-time All-Star, an AL MVP winner and someone who helped them to two pennants. He ended his career in 2015 with the Rangers (after a big-money stint with the Angels) as a .290/.349/.516 hitter with 200 HRs and 27.9 fWAR, making him one of the most successful performers on this list.

—

This is a mixed bag, isn’t it? Jones is in Cooperstown. A-Rod’s production could put him there, but he may never get enough support because of the PED questions. Nevin, Erstad, Benson, Burrell and Hamilton had respectable careers in their own right, while Taylor, Wilson and Anderson did little to nothing at the MLB level.

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MLBTR Originals

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Tony Clark Indicates Union Opposition To MLB Salary Proposal

By Jeff Todd | May 11, 2020 at 4:45pm CDT

Major League Baseball’s thirty teams have approved a proposal for handling labor relations in a truncated 2020 season. But initial efforts to sell the concept to the Major League Baseball Players’ Association are off to a rocky start.

Union chief Tony Clark expressed general opposition to the MLB plan in comments to Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription link). He argues that tying pay to revenue — as the team side intends to propose — effectively constitutes the imposition of a “salary cap.”

The MLBPA has long fought against efforts to impose a salary cap. Clark accuses the league of “trying to take advantage of a global health crisis to get what they’ve failed to achieve in the past.” From Clark’s perspective, the focus shouldn’t be on salaries to much as “finding a way for us to get safely back on the field.”

The union continues to insist that the sides’ late-March agreement fully resolves the question of 2020 player salaries. There’s an ongoing dispute over the interpretation of that recent pact.

It remains to be seen whether the league and players will be able to negotiate out their differences. Public opinion is sure to play a role in how things shake out, which explains the recent run of reporting and public statements.

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Uncategorized Coronavirus

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Matt Harvey Throwing Bullpens, Hoping For Offer Once Transaction Freeze Is Lifted

By Steve Adams | May 11, 2020 at 3:58pm CDT

Matt Harvey isn’t calling it quits. The former Mets ace tells Dan Martin of the New York Post that he’s throwing bullpen sessions once or twice per week in hopes of landing a contract once the leaguewide transaction freeze has been lifted. Harvey reportedly tried out for the Blue Jays in February and didn’t receive an offer, but the 31-year-old feels he’s used the additional downtime to correct some “bad habit from last year” that he might’ve otherwise rushed through.

“I hope somebody gives me a shot,” Harvey tells Martin. “I feel like I have many more years in me. … I’ve grown up and matured on and off the field.”

Harvey’s swift fall from grace has been well documented. Injuries decimated what looked to be an extraordinarily promising career for the former No. 7 overall pick, who pitched to a 2.53 ERA/2.65 FIP with 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through his first 427 MLB innings. In a span of less than three years, though, the touted righty underwent Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet surgery. The injuries were followed by a sharp downturn in his results on the field, which combined with a reputation for partying off the field and a questionable clubhouse presence to sully the general opinion of the former “Dark Knight” in Queens.

[Related: When the Dark Knight Left Gotham]

However, Harvey had a rebirth of sorts following a trade to Cincinnati. The right-hander didn’t completely return to form, but his velocity improved as he worked to a respectable 4.50 ERA in 128 frames out of the Reds’ rotation in 2018. Harvey was clobbered in two of his 24 starts with the Reds (15 runs in a combined nine innings), but outside of those poor showings was quite solid (3.70 ERA). He held opponents to three or fewer runs in 17 of his 24 starts with the Reds. By all accounts, he appeared to be a good clubhouse fit there.

The improved velocity and relative stability he showed with the Reds prompted the Angels to bring Harvey in on a one-year, $11MM deal. It was a somewhat steep price to pay for a pitcher who many still viewed as a reclamation project, but the upside with a pitcher of Harvey’s pedigree was alluring enough to pique the Halos’ interest. Instead, Harvey delivered a disastrous 7.09 ERA and 6.35 FIP that were worse than even his lowest points with the Mets. He latched on with the A’s on a minor league deal but was never called to the Majors.

Harvey made a couple of relief appearances with the A’s in Triple-A and was said to be open to trying out a reliever role, so perhaps he’d be open to that this time around. At this point, a “beggars can’t be choosers” mentality seems like a necessity, so a short relief role doesn’t seem to be out of the question. The league’s proposal to the Players Association reportedly will expand rosters to as many as 30 players and could have a taxi squad of 15 to 20 additional players available to every club. That type of roster expansion could seemingly help Harvey’s chances, as clubs will likely aim to stockpile as much pitching depth as possible.

It’s been nearly five years since we’ve seen Harvey at his best, but he’s still just 31 years old. A return to prominence may be a long shot, but we’ve seen longer shots make successful comebacks in recent years (Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir among them).

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World Baseball Classic To Be Pushed Back To 2023

By Steve Adams | May 11, 2020 at 2:00pm CDT

2:00pm: The WBC will be pushed back to March 2023, pending the approval of the tournament board, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

12:44pm: The fifth World Baseball Classic, which had been set to take place in March 2021, has been canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and will not be played, Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports. There’s no official word on the tournament’s cancellation or when it will next take place, although Hector Gomez of Z101 Deportes in the Dominican Republic tweets that it could perhaps take place in 2023.

The 2021 WBC was slated to expand from 16 teams to 20 teams and would have taken place across three countries: the United States (Marlins Park and Chase Field), Japan (Tokyo Dome) and Taiwan (Taichung Intercontinental Stadium). Japan won the first two WBC tournaments, with the Dominican Republic taking the crown in 2013 and the United States capturing the first-place trophy in 2017.

All 16 of the entrants in 2017 were granted automatic bids this time around, while a series of qualifier tournaments comprised of teams from Panama, Nicaragua, Brazil, the Philippines, Germany, Great Britain, France, the Czech Republic, Pakistan and South Africa were slated to vie for the four newly created seeds.

Given that the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo were already pushed back a year and still remain in jeopardy even on that delayed timeline, it’s not particularly surprising to learn that the WBC won’t take place as scheduled. Still, it’s a disappointing blow for fans of the tournament. While it never reached the same levels of popularity in the United States, the WBC is wildly popular among fans in Latin American and Asian countries that participate. As Daniel Kim of MBC in South Korea tweets, the Korean team’s deep run in 2006 and 2009 helped to spur a baseball renaissance in South Korea that has led to steady growth in the KBO and increased popularity since that time.

In the United States, with a title to defend and an aggressive recruiting pitch from reigning tournament MVP Marcus Stroman that had elicited interest from the likes of Walker Buehler, Pete Alonso, Mike Clevinger and others, it’s possible we might’ve seen the strongest iteration of Team USA yet in 2021. Sadly, that no longer seems to be realistic, and WBC fans will have an indefinite wait for the next event as the organizing committee charts out a new course.

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Owners Finalize Proposal For Resumption Of Play

By Steve Adams | May 11, 2020 at 1:07pm CDT

1:07pm: Owners approved the proposal for the union, Rosenthal tweets. The league and union are expected to sit down to discuss the proposal tomorrow. Sherman tweets that the MLBPA considers the league’s revenue sharing proposition a “nonstarter,” further underscoring that substantial hurdles need to be navigated.

11:50am: The league is preparing to present the Players Association with a proposal for the resumption of play in 2020, and the team’s 30 owners will vote on the final iteration later today, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Once finalized, the proposal will be presented to the union.

Many elements of the proposal have already been leaked to various media outlets. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich reported over the weekend that a revenue-sharing plan with players was being “floated,” and Nightengale adds that such a plan is indeed on the table today. The proposal would see owners share “at least 48 percent” of revenue with the MLBPA in 2020. Similar setups exist in the NBA and the NFL. Owners will also vote on a universal DH for 2020, as Joel Sherman suggested over the weekend.

A couple of previously reported elements have already been agreed upon, per Nightengale: the expansion from 10 to 14 postseason teams in 2020 and a limited travel schedule wherein teams play only division rivals and the five teams in the opposite league’s corresponding division (e.g. the Padres play only the other four NL West clubs and the five AL West clubs during the regular season). A mid-June reboot for spring (summer?) training and an early July return to regular-season play remain the hope and best-case scenario, though scheduling is still dependent on input from government officials and public health experts.

The owners and commissioner’s office are also hopeful that teams will be able to host training camp and regular-season games (sans fans in attendance) at their home parks. Nightengale does make mention of a possible facility share between close-proximity rivals in the event that one team’s state government regulations render play at its home stadium not feasible. Such clubs could also look into moving games to their spring site, per the report, though in some cases, that would seemingly run counter to the more stringent travel restrictions this proposal seeks to establish.

There’s still no word on what sort of plan is in place in the event of a positive test or tests among active players and coaches — or of a larger outbreak within a tightly packed clubhouse. To that end, Rosenthal spoke with a number of players with underlying medical conditions in order to get their feelings on a return to play (subscription required). David Dahl, Scott Alexander, Adam Duvall, Jordan Hicks, Carlos Carrasco, Kenley Jansen, Anthony Rizzo and Jon Lester all spoke with Rosenthal about their intentions to play despite some current or previous health concerns. Dahl, who had his spleen removed in 2015, acknowledged that it’s “definitely scary” and said his immune system is “pretty bad.” Still, he expressed trust in Rockies medical officials and the broader expertise of public health experts in voicing his willingness to return to the field.

That said, Rosenthal also notes that there are numerous players with underlying medical conditions which are not public knowledge, and there are plenty more with higher-risk immediate family members that are the source of concern. It’s a complicated scenario for players in those circumstances — one that has reportedly led some to inquire with the union about what would happen should they opt not to play in 2020 (via last week’s report from Jeff Passan of ESPN.com). It’s also a reminder that ownership approval of a proposal today is just one of many steps that need to be taken before play actually resumes.

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Poll: Universal DH In 2020?

By Steve Adams | May 11, 2020 at 9:36am CDT

When MLB commissioner Rob Manfred spoke back in 2018 about the possibility of adding a designated hitter to the National League, revealing that the dialogue “probably moved a little bit,” MLBTR readers responded in what was probably the most evenly-split poll we’ve ever conducted here; among 13,118 respondents, there was a 50.07 to 49.93 percent result ever so slightly favoring the status quo and keeping the DH to the American League only.

Circumstances have changed in 2020, to say the least. Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the proposal the league is preparing to present to the Players Association includes a designated hitter in both leagues for the 2020 season — a measure aimed at keeping pitchers healthier during a shortened schedule that could include an abnormally brief ramp-up period, increased doubleheaders and/or fewer off-days.

If such measures are put in place this year, that will surely serve as a litmus test of sorts for a more permanent implementation of the rule. Adding a DH in the NL has been a hotly debated and oft-discussed topic for years now, as NL purists lament the potential loss of strategy while those in favor of the DH point to the general futility of pitchers at the plate.

The primary reason the league would favor the change, in the long term, would be to increase the regularity of balls in play. Pitchers batted a combined .128/.160/.162 last season in 5173 plate appearances (a negative-18 wRC+) — and that was their best offensive showing in the past five years. But that was also due in part to a BABIP spike, it seems, as pitchers struck out at a woeful 43.5 percent clip — their worst mark ever. Conversely, the league-average non-pitcher hit .256/.327/.443 with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate. Dropping pitchers for even league-average bats in those DH spots would have resulted in about 1100 fewer strikeouts over the course of the season (plus another 606 bunts).

On the other side of the coin, fewer double-switches would occur, and managers would be spared the occasional decision of whether to let a hot pitcher hit with runners aboard in a close or scoreless game. Those decisions are among the most cherished strategic elements of the game for many fans — particularly those who grew up up in NL cities or prior to the implementation of the DH entirely. We just passed the four-year anniversary of Bartolo Colon’s iconic home run, and there’s nary a more universally rejoiced oddity than watching Big Sexy’s home run trot against the audio backdrop of an elated Gary Cohen roaring, “Bartolo has done it! The impossible has happened!” Highlights of that nature are rare, but it’s that very scarcity that makes them such instant classics and treasured memories.

With all that in mind, and recognizing the unprecedented circumstances under which the league and union are working to put together some semblance of a season, let’s check in on some thoughts regarding the addition of a DH to the senior circuit. I know many in the anti-DH crowd would vote to remove the DH in the American League. However, it doesn’t seem that either the union or league would have cause to prefer that route, so I opted not to include it as an option — but feel free to voice it in the comments (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

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MLBTR Polls Coronavirus

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Quick Hits: Judge, Team Finances, Tsutsugo

By Mark Polishuk | May 10, 2020 at 10:27pm CDT

Should the Yankees sign Aaron Judge to a long-term extension?  Joel Sherman of the New York Post isn’t sure, noting that Judge already has a significant injury history, is already under team control through his age-30 season, and how the Yankees’ financial situation will be impacted in the post-coronavirus baseball world.  There’s also the fact that the Yankees have generally shied away from contract extensions since Hal Steinbrenner took over the team, and the two players whose deals were most recently extended (Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino) have battled injuries since inking those new contracts.  Judge is in the first of his three arbitration-eligible seasons, and back in January agreed to an $8.5MM deal for the 2020 season.

More from around baseball….

  • Most of the 30 teams have already arranged to pay non-baseball employees through the end of May, with such clubs as the Phillies, Tigers, Rockies, and Padres already committed to avoiding job cuts or furloughs beyond May 31.  However, there is concern and, “among front-office officials there is an expectation,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes, that there could be major job losses within baseball operations departments after the draft in June.  Scouts could be in particular danger, as some clubs have already made moves in recent years towards relying on video analysis rather than in-person reports for scouting purposes.  As one team executive tells Olney, “it just doesn’t make any sense to me that these [teams] need to dump people making $40K, $50K.  Those savings are not difference-making,” even for franchises that will be taking a big revenue hit this season.  Such actions are likely to hurt a team’s reputation around the sport, and could impact future chances of hiring or keeping front office personnel in the future.
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo has been in Japan since late March, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the newly-acquired Rays slugger is continuing to work out in preparation for his first Major League season.  Keeping in touch with Rays staff throughout, Tsutsugo has been involved in various workout, hitting, and throwing routines.  As to when Tsutsugo will be able to return to North America, nothing will be determined until (or if) a plan to launch the 2020 season is underway, and Tsutsugo be further delayed given travel restrictions between Japan and the U.S.  For instance, Tsutsugo could face a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine upon arriving in America, regardless of any COVID-19 symptoms he may or may not show.
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New York Yankees Notes Tampa Bay Rays Aaron Judge Coronavirus Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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