Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders
From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.
On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).
But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.
Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?
Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.
The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.
Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.
Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.
To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.
There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.
Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.
Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.
On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.
With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.
Twins Sign JT Riddle To Minor League Deal
The Twins have signed JT Riddle to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Kim (via Twitter). Riddle spent last season with the Pirates.
Speculatively, Riddle could eventually help insure against the departure of free agent Marwin Gonzalez. Riddle plays all over the diamond, with his market advantage being capable glovework at both shortstop and centerfield. He has appeared at every position besides pitcher and catcher over his four year career, with a majority of his playing time coming up the middle.
Though he appeared in 23 games for the Pirates last season, the bulk of Riddle’s career was with the Marlins from 2017 to 2019. In total, Riddle owns a career triple slash of .222/.261/.355, just a 63 wRC+. Therein lies the rub for Riddle, as he has yet to come anywhere close to producing league-average offense. For his career, a 5.0 percent walk rate, 21.9 percent strikeout rate, and .133 isolated power mark all fall below league averages.
Quick Hits: Sugano’s Deadline, Free Agent Market, Training Facilities
The posting period for Tomoyuki Sugano ends today at 5pm ET. He’s reportedly seeking more than the four-year, $56MM deal that Yusei Kikuchi signed to join the Mariners, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. That’s a hefty sum, and with a four-year contract in-hand to return to the Yomiuri Giants – a deal that includes three opt-outs – it begins to feel less likely that the Japanese legend will find the deal he desires. Still, he’s an absolute star in Japan and could be the best free agent starter not named Trevor Bauer. The Red Sox are still interested, as are the Blue Jays. The Mets are out. [UPDATE: “A return to Japan still appears most likely outcome” for Sugano, according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic]
While we wait for Sugano’s decision, let’s check in on some other league news…
- It was an omen of the winter to come when the Cleveland Indians waived their closer Brad Hand. When he went unclaimed, panic reached new heights. If Hand at $10MM went unclaimed by all 30 teams, free agent spending figured to be at an all-time low. Interest appears to be picking up on Hand, but on the whole, the market remains cold. Perhaps to an unprecedented degree, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Agents fear GMs are being intentionally obtuse about their payrolls in order to delay signings and inspire an ecosystem of desperation among players. The lack of face-to-face meetings might also be making the frigid environment easier to teams to maintain, suggests Nightengale. Elsewhere…
- Upon hearing that some teams were planning on opening up their facilities to allow players to come train, MLB sent a memo to all thirty clubs setting clear guidelines for the opening of training facilities, per Nightengale. The only players who will be allowed in their team facilities prior to spring training, Nightengale writes, are those who live near the facilities, those with specific health needs, and those approved in the CBA to attend club mini-camps. Violations will be subject to severe punishment. Of course, what that means is all relative. MLB is trying to get ahead of any potential outbreaks in January or February that would complicate initial protocols.
Open Market Notes: Kluber, Twins/Cruz, Nats, Odorizzi
Add the Pirates to the clubs planning to attend for Corey Kluber’s January 13th workout, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Nationals and Diamondbacks were previously mentioned as two among many planning to view Kluber in Florida. The Pirates don’t seem like the likeliest team to sign Kluber, though he could conceivably provide some veteran stability with the upside of becoming a mid-season trade chip. It’ll be interesting to see how Kluber shows after two mostly lost seasons. Before he ran into health troubles, the 34-year-old reeled off an exceptional five-season run.
Here are a few other items of open-market chatter …
- Though there’s no evidence of recent progress, there’s still cause to remain bullish on the odds of a reunion between the Twins and slugger Nelson Cruz. The match, after all, has worked out well for both sides to date. In an appearance on the Locked On Twins podcast, Darren Wolfson of KSTP 5 indicated that mutual interest remains strong. But the club and the 40-year-old DH could also be eyeing alternatives. Wolfson suggests the Padres would have interest in Cruz if it turns out that the DH will remain in the National League. Remaining uncertainty in that regard has iced the market for lumbering sluggers. Depending upon how things shake out, per Wolfson, the Twins may have interest in a slate of options that includes Michael Brantley, Kyle Schwarber, and even Marcell Ozuna.
- Several of those players would also be of interest to the Nationals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. It seems that Ozuna is likely to require too much space on the balance sheet. But Brantley and Schwarber, along with Joc Pederson, are each seen as possibilities to take up a post in the D.C. corner outfield. The Nats have an opening after allowing Adam Eaton to depart.
- Free agent righty Jake Odorizzi appears to be in position to land a three-year deal, an executive tells Rosenthal. The expectation from that industry source is that the veteran starter could secure a guarantee in the realm of $36MM to $42MM — just where MLBTR predicted he’d land. There’s still no clarity as to Odorizzi’s slate of suitors, but it stands to reason he’ll have fairly widespread appeal given that Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted qualifying offers, removing two primary targets from the market.
Justin Smoak To Sign With Yomiuri Giants
JANUARY 6: The deal is now complete and will promise Smoak $6MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
DECEMBER 29: Free-agent first baseman Justin Smoak is nearing a contract with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. Smoak will earn a guaranteed $6MM to $7MM if the deal goes through.
The 34-year-old Smoak divided last season between the Brewers and Giants (San Francisco, not Yomiuri) and posted a brutal .162/.250/.361 line with five home runs in 132 plate appearances. Smoak’s strikeout rate (31.8) was the second-highest figure of his career and a 10-plus percent increase over the number he recorded in 2019 with the Blue Jays. Considering his weak production from 2020, Smoak would have been hard-pressed to approach his agreement with Yomiuri in value had he stayed in the majors in 2021, so it’s no surprise the switch hitter is on his way to Japan to collect a larger paycheck and perhaps rebuild his stock for big league teams.
If this is the last we’ve seen of Smoak in MLB, though, he’ll go down as someone who had an up-and-down tenure at the game’s highest level. The 11th overall pick of the Rangers in 2008 and once among Baseball America’s top 15 prospects, Smoak has seen major league action with five teams (the Mariners are the other). Smoak was at his best in Toronto from 2017-18, when he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs and a 128 wRC+ across 1,231 trips to the plate. He hasn’t come close to matching that form since then, however.
Tigers Outright Eric Haase
The Tigers announced that they have outrighted catcher Eric Haase, who cleared waivers after the team designated him for assignment last month.
Haase is coming off his first season with Detroit, which acquired him from AL Central rival Cleveland last January. However, he only took 19 plate appearances and collected three hits (all singles) during his 2020 Detroit debut.
Last year’s offensive struggles weren’t anything new for Haase, who has posted an ugly .122/.170/.184 line with one home run across 53 PA since he first made it to the majors in 2018. To his credit, the 28-year-old does own a far more impressive .232/.302/.479 mark with 49 HRs over 886 trips to the plate in Triple-A.
Yankees To Acquire Greg Allen From Padres
The Yankees are set to acquire outfielder Greg Allen from the Padres. Allen was recently designated for assignment by San Diego. The Padres will receive left-handed reliever James Reeves in return, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
Allen, a San Diego native, was traded to the Padres last August as part of the Mike Clevinger deal. The speedy outfielder appeared in just one game for the Padres, drawing a pair of walks, stealing a base, and scoring a run. For his career, Allen holds a .239/.298/.343 line in 618 plate appearances across four years with the Indians and Padres.
Reeves is a 27-year-old southpaw drafted by the Yankees in the 10th round of the 2015 draft. He has a 2.30 ERA across five minor league seasons, functioning almost exclusively as a reliever. He logged a 1.79 ERA across 55 1/3 innings for Double-A Trenton in 2019 with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.4 percent walk rate, and 43 percent groundball rate.
Reds Acquire Art Warren For Cash Considerations
The Reds have acquired right-hander Art Warren from the Rangers for cash considerations, both teams announced (Twitter links). Warren had been designated for assignment on December 26th, at which point it seemed fairly certain that Warren would latch on somewhere. The Reds make for a natural fit having moved out a couple of bullpen arms this winter, and it doesn’t hurt that Warren is an Ohio native. The 27-year-old will have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the Cincinnati bullpen.
The Rangers had claimed Warren off waivers from the Mariners, but subsequently designated him for assignment to make room on their 40-man roster for Kohei Arihara. The Rangers had claimed Warren only as recently as October 21, 2020.
Warren spent one day on the Mariners’ active roster in 2020 but did not make an appearance. He made six big league appearances for Seattle in 2019 after recording a 32 percent strikeout rate in back-to-back seasons in Double-A. Warren posted a 60.3 percent groundball rate across 31 2/3 innings in 2019. Conversely, his groundball rate at the same level in 15 2/3 innings the year before was just 39.4 percent. There’s a fair amount of year-to-year variance in Warren’s minor league track record, but there’s certainly enough to make him an interesting bullpen candidate for manager David Bell.
Perhaps more importantly for the Reds, he’ll earn the league minimum. The Reds non-tendered Archie Bradley and traded Raisel Iglesias earlier this winter, removing two proven high-leverage arms from their bullpen stable, presumably for financial reasons. Adding Warren is a low-key move that doesn’t immediately move the needle for the Reds, but there is potential for Warren to make an impact in 2021
Coaching Notes: Reds, Orioles
The Reds have named Bryan Conger their new minor league pitching coordinator, per Bobby Nightengale of the Enquirer (via Twitter). Conger himself announced his hiring on Twitter. Conger spent the last two seasons coaching in the Rangers’ organization. The former head coach at Tarleton State, Conger has a history of data-driven innovation that fits the Reds’ ethos. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America wrote this about Conger when the Rangers initially hired him in January of 2019: “Individualization has been a key part of Conger’s approach. Each pitcher at Tarleton State had an individualized throwing program designed specifically for that pitcher. Conger viewed it as his job to use data as much as possible to help customize everything they did for each pitcher.” As the minor league pitching coordinator, Conger will have a broader scope at his fingertips than back in his Division II days, but the Reds no doubt value his personal approach.
- Conger joines the Driveline/Reds family that also includes 25-year-old assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers. The former University of Iowa southpaw found his way to Driveline as an amateur pitcher struggling to stay healthy. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome further stymied his pitching career, importuning Jagers to commit early to a career in coaching, writes Bobby Nightengale of The Enquirer. Writes Nightengale, “The result was a meteoric rise through the sport. In three years, Jagers went from an injured college pitcher to the Cincinnati Reds’ Assistant Pitching Coach. At 25 years old, he’s one of the youngest coaches on any Major League staff.” Jagers takes over for Caleb Cotham – just 33-years-old himself – who was named the Phillies’ pitching coach this offseason.
- In Baltimore, Chris Holt attempted to clarify his role for the upcoming season during a recent Zoom call, notes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Holt has been the Orioles‘ Director of Pitching, but he will slide into the dugout this year as manager Brandon Hyde’s pitching coach. He’s keeping his original title, however, which presumably puts an awful lot on Holt’s plate. Holt has been preparing for this role switch for years, with the organization hoping that Holt could form a cohesive organizational philosophy that he himself would usher to the big leagues as some of their developing hurlers made it to the Show. That’s presumably where they are now, with a number of young pitchers like Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Bruce Zimmermann, Hunter Harvey, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and Alexander Wells already on the 40-man roster. Top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are both approaching the bigs as well, though both are likely to start 2021 in Double-A.
Pirates Sign Chase De Jong To Minor League Deal
The Pittsburgh Pirates have signed 27-year-old right-hander Chase De Jong to a minor league deal, writes John Dreker of pittsburghbaseball.com. The 6’4″ De Jong has bounced around the league since the Blue Jays made him a second round pick out of high school in the 2012 draft. He never played in the Majors for Toronto, nor for his second organization, the Los Angeles Dodgers. After reaching Triple-A, the Dodgers traded De Jong to the Mariners, where he eventually made his debut during the 2017 season. He exceeded rookie requirements in 2020 with 0.110 days of service time in the Majors.
Despite just 15 career appearances, the California native has appeared in the Majors in each of the four seasons since his debut – never making more than seven appearances in a year. Overall, De Jong owns a 7.12 ERA/6.00 FIP in 54 1/3 innings, including 10 starts. At 27-years-old, De Jong is young enough to develop into something other than what we’ve seen of him thus far, especially being as he hasn’t seen much opportunity in terms of volume while appearing for the Mariners, Twins, and Astros. De Jong was a ranked prospect by Baseball America every season from 2013 to 2018, when he was the No. 16 ranked prospect in the Mariners’ organization.