Tomoyuki Sugano Agrees To Four-Year, $40MM Deal With Yomiuri Giants
8:03pm: Sugano has re-signed with Yomiuri on a four-year, $40MM contract, per Rosenthal. The deal includes three opt-out chances, so Sugano will have future opportunities to become a major leaguer.
4:05pm: Nippon Professional Baseball right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano did not reach an agreement with a major league team before his 5 p.m. ET posting deadline Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. That means Sugano will remain in Japan in 2021, though he will be eligible to come to MLB as a free agent next winter.
NPB’s Yomiuri Giants posted the 31-year-old Sugano for major league clubs a month ago, and with the likes of Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman off the free-agent board, Sugano looked like one of the most appealing starters available on the open market. As a result, several teams – including the Padres, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Rangers and Red Sox – vied for Sugano in recent weeks. The Padres were even in negotiations with Sugano on Thursday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. In the end, though, neither they nor any other big league club could pry him from his homeland.
Sugano will remain a member of the Yomiuri Giants, with whom he has dominated since making his pro debut in 2013. Sugano owns a stellar 2.34 ERA over 1,362 innings with the Giants, and he has won two MVPs and a pair of Pitcher of the Year awards in Japan. He’ll make around $8MM with the Giants in 2021, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relays. With another excellent season, though, Sugano could wind up in a major league uniform before the 2022 campaign.
Lindor Notes: Extension, Springer, Jays, Odorizzi, Yankees
The Mets swung a massive trade Thursday when they unexpectedly acquired superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland. It’s the biggest story in baseball at the moment, so reactions have come pouring in over the past several hours. Here’s some of the fallout from the deal…
- Lindor is only under control for one more season, in which he’ll make a projected $17.5MM to $21.5MM, though the Mets will try to keep him around beyond then. Mets president Sandy Alderson said the team will “broach in the next few weeks” an extension with the four-time All-Star, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. That’s not surprising news, as the Mets had to part with four young players (Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene) to get the deal done, and new owner Steve Cohen certainly has the money to pay Lindor on a long-term contract.
- While the Mets may be willing to keep Lindor around for the foreseeable future, it never seemed realistic for low-budget Cleveland to sign him to an extension. The club knew last spring it wouldn’t be able to extend Lindor, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who reports that it offered the 27-year-old $200MM. That didn’t come close, though, as Lindor was then seeking upward of $300MM.
- In the wake of the Lindor/Carrasco trade, the Mets aren’t necessarily finished making big-ticket acquisitions, though it’s “less likely” they will sign free-agent outfielder George Springer because of an unwillingness to exceed the $210MM luxury-tax threshold, Andy Martino of SNY writes. New York is in the $190MM payroll vicinity at the moment, and it would like to open the season around $5MM to $10MM under the $210MM mark, Martino reports. The Mets have been tied throughout the offseason to Springer, arguably the top position player on the open market. The former Astro wants a deal in the $175MM range, but the Mets have been short of that at around five years and $150MM, according to Martino. The Blue Jays, who have also been in on Springer, are in the five-year, $115MM range, Martino relays.
- The Mets had interest in free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi earlier in the offseason, but getting Carrasco put the kibosh on that, as Martino writes that they’re no longer in the running to sign him. The Mets are slated to rely on Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carrasco and David Peterson as their top four starters, at least until Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery during the summer.
- With DJ LeMahieu currently a free agent, the Yankees were speculative candidates to make a deal for Lindor. While the team did inquire about Lindor before the crosstown rival Mets reeled him in, the Yankees’ main focus has continued to be re-signing LeMahieu, Sherman tweets. Because they’re so locked in on LeMahieu, the Yankees only regarded Lindor as a fallback option.
- Mets general manager Jared Porter told reporters (including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that they have five to six prospects whom they have no plans to trade. To no one’s surprise, Porter did not reveal any names, though DiComo lists shortstop Ronny Mauricio, righties Matthew Allan and J.T. Ginn, catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty and outfielder Pete Crowe-Armstrong as farmhands who probably aren’t going anywhere. They each rank among the Mets’ top six prospects at MLB.com.
Astros To Sign Ryne Stanek
The Astros are signing free-agent reliever Ryne Stanek, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. It’s a one-year deal, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets. Stanek will earn $1.1MM, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The right-hander is a client of MVP Sports Group.
The 29th overall pick of the Rays in 2013, Stanek made his major league debut four years later and gave the club especially good production from 2018-19. He was one of the Rays’ go-to opener options then, starting 56 games in 100 appearances, and managed a 3.17 ERA with a 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 9.6 percent walk rate in 122 innings. However, the Rays moved on from Stanek when they sent him to the Marlins in a 2019 trade deadline deal that delivered stud reliever Nick Anderson to Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately for Miami, Stanek wasn’t able to maintain his effectiveness in its uniform. The 29-year-old had a rough season in 2020, when he threw 10 innings of 7.20 ERA ball with almost as many unintentional walks (eight) as strikeouts (11) and saw his average fastball dip from the 98 mph range to 96. The Marlins then non-tendered Stanek in lieu of paying him a projected $800K in arbitration.
The Astros could control Stanek through 2023 via arbitration, so this might be more than a one-year union between the two. And Astros general manager James Click, who was part of the Rays’ front office when they drafted Stanek and saw him flourish a few years later, is quite familiar with the hurler.
Stanek will now join a Houston bullpen that ranked a middle-of-the-pack 15th in ERA a season ago. The Astros have since lost relievers Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski to free agency, and while none played big roles in 2020, the team has been looking to address its relief corps to a notable degree this winter. In fact, Mark Berman of Fox 26 tweeted Thursday that the Astros want more than one reliever and have interest in free agents Brad Hand and Trevor Rosenthal (along with the previously reported Liam Hendriks and Alex Colome). With that in mind, they probably aren’t done after the Stanek acquisition.
Dodgers Bullpen Rumors: Hendriks, Yates
The Dodgers were in pursuit of free-agent reliever Liam Hendriks earlier this offseason, but that interest “has recently dissipated,” Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes. While Hendriks is viewed as the best reliever available on the open market, the former Athletics closer reportedly wants a four-year contract, and the Dodgers aren’t willing to sign him to that long of a deal, according to Castillo.
Although Hendriks appears to be out of the mix for Los Angeles, the reigning World Series champions do have other high-end relievers on their radar. Along with the previously reported Brad Hand, the Dodgers are eyeing right-hander Kirby Yates, per Castillo, who adds that they “have significant interest in him.” Yates shouldn’t cost as much as Hendriks or Hand, having missed almost all of last season with elbow problems, but the ex-Padres standout could be a relatively low-risk, high-reward pickup for any team that signs him. After all, the 33-year-old is just two seasons removed from posting a ridiculous 1.19 ERA with a 41.6 percent strikeout rate and a 5.3 percent walk rate over 60 2/3 innings. Yates also saved a National League-high 41 games in 44 chances that year.
A Yates signing for the Dodgers would be somewhat similar to 2020 additions such as Blake Treinen and Jake McGee, in that they’d be landing a proven reliever whose stock isn’t at an all-time high on a short-term pact. Both signings worked out well for LA last season, and the team was so impressed with Treinen’s work that it brought him back on a two-year, $17.5MM guarantee in free agency.
Tigers Sign Miguel Del Pozo To Minors Deal
The Tigers announced that left-hander Miguel Del Pozo has been signed to a minor league contract. Del Pozo chose to become a free agent following the season, after he was outrighted off the Pirates’ roster during the summer.
Del Pozo has been hit hard over his 13 career MLB innings, with a total 12.46 ERA from 9 1/3 innings with the Angels in 2019 and then 3 2/3 frames for Pittsburgh last season. Del Pozo has more walks (13) than strikeouts (13) as a big leaguer, an extreme version of control issues he displayed early in his pro career, though he has seemingly gotten his walks under control as he rose up the minor league ladder.
Over 386 1/3 career innings in the Angels, Rangers, and Marlins farm systems, Del Pozo posted a 4.28 ERA, 25.8 K%, and 10.2% walk rate. He has worked almost exclusively as a reliever throughout his career, and he joins Locke St. John and Ian Krol as left-handed minor league signing for Detroit within the last month.
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Brewers Sign Pablo Reyes To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed utilityman Pablo Reyes to a minor league contract, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The deal contains an invite to Milwaukee’s big league spring camp.
Reyes didn’t play during the 2020 season due to an 80-game PED suspension issued in February. He elected to become a free agent after the season, ending a nine-year stint as a member of the Pirates organization. After initially signing as a minor league free agent with the Bucs in 2012, Reyes hit .278/.351/.421 over 2587 plate appearances in Pittsburgh’s farm system.
This solid bat and the ability to play all over the field (though Reyes was mostly a shortstop and second baseman in the minors) got Reyes a look at the MLB level in both 2018 and 2019. Debuting with a strong .832 OPS over 63 PA in 2018, Reyes struggled at the plate in 2019, hitting only .203/.274/.322 in 157 plate appearances while also missing about a month of action due to an ankle injury. Reyes spent much of his time on the Pirates’ active roster as an outfielder.
The Brewers often prioritize multi-positional players, so the Reyes signing gives the team another versatile option to consider heading into Spring Training. Reyes is a right-handed hitter, which could make it a bit of an uphill battle for him to break camp considering the Brewers already have quite a bit of right-handed depth.
Dodgers Focused On Right-Handed Hitting Infielders
From the outside looking in, the Dodgers have clearly prioritized their bullpen this winter: trading for Corey Knebel, re-resigning Blake Treinen, signing injured Tommy Kahnle to a two-year deal. Behind the scenes, however, their offseason efforts have focused on finding a right-handed hitting infielder, writes the Athletic’s Jim Bowden.
On its face, this tracks. They have a need: right-handed infielders Justin Turner and Kiké Hernández are free agents, and of their remaining infielders, only Chris Taylor bats from the right side. Additionally, reports place right-handed infielders firmly in their sights. We know they’re making a run at DJ LeMahieu, one of the top right-handed infielders in the game period, and on the trade front, everyone and their mother seems to thinks Nolan Arenado is destined for the Dodgers (except – and this seems relevant – the Rockies).
But it’s somewhat maddening that the Dodgers haven’t just brought Turner back. He’s been the face of the franchise, a fan favorite, a clutch and steadying presence, and a hugely productive producer over his seven years with the team. This is circumstantial and narrative, but it’s a fact nevertheless: So long as the Turner has been at the hot corner in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers have won the division every year.
Together, Los Angeles and Turner just won the first World Series of this long and dynastic era of Dodger baseball. The economic landscape in the game is strained, but this is the Dodgers, and they just won the World Series, and they need a right-handed infielder: make the deal, right?
Besides, he’s from Long Beach, he went to high school in Lakewood and college in Fullerton. Turner and L.A. is a proven fit.
The Dodgers, however, aren’t quite so sentimental. Turner might not be either. He’s reportedly seeking a four-year deal, which is a non-starter for a 36-year-old. For the Dodgers, a reunion with Turner is a no-brainer under the assumption that they can get him on a short-term deal. Four years isn’t going to happen.
Many in the industry project Turner as a candidate for rapid decline. Bowden writes, “Turner is now 36 years old and the analytics scream that his performance decline is at the high-risk level.” He’s not alone in anticipating a downturn in performance.
Turner’s whiff rate on fastballs jumped from 15.4 percent to 20.4 percent, and that’s a concern. Turner’s .153 ISO was his lowest isolated power mark since his first season in Los Angeles – and it wasn’t close. There was some slippage defensively – his success rate fell from 90% in 2019 to 84% in 2020 – though Statcast’s estimated marks suggest a less precipitous decline from 89 percent to 87 percent. Another point for the detractors, Turner runs less well than ever, finishing in the 18th percentile by sprint speed, down from 33rd percentile in 2019 and the 43rd percentile in 2018.
To soften the blow, one might consider that if the worst part of his game – which has never been an asset – is the biggest area of concern, then the alarm bells might be premature. Of course, none of that changes the fact that he’s entering his age-36 season. In the end, decline comes for everyone.
There’s plenty of cause to be bullish on Turner, however, beginning with his 140 wRC+ in 2020. His 10.3 percent walk rate was right around league average and the third-best mark of his career. He put the ball in play with an excellent 14.9 percent strikeout rate.
Not only was he putting the ball in play, but he wasn’t making cheap contact. His exit velocity in 2020 exactly matched his mark from 2019. His 44 percent hard hit percentage was a career high. His 11.2 percent barrel rate set a career high by a margin of 2.4 percent, trouncing the MLB average of 6.4 percent.
Lastly, and I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it’s safe to assume he’s in the 98th percentile both for beard length and fullness. Not to mention, baseball-wise, he finished in the 95th percentile for xwOBA.
On the other hand, LeMahieu is very good, and if they can add him to Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, and Chris Taylor in the infield, that’s something the Dodgers have to consider. There are other options on the free agent market as well, though not a ton that hit from the right side. Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Jonathan Villar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jurickson Profar, and Marwin Gonzalez are switch-hitters who could fill Kiké’s role. Only Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien really fit the right-handed hitting infielder mold the Dodgers’ seek.
With a payroll near $198MM, the Dodgers’ have a decent chance to exceed the luxury tax mark of $210MM, and that’s a line they’ve avoided in recent years. Turner should definitely keep them closer to the line than LeMahieu. But if the difference is marginal – say, $25MM AAV versus $20MM AAV – then it’s hard to argue against pursuing the current American League batting champion, even if Turner does rake again in 2021.
Twins Sign JT Riddle To Minor League Deal
The Twins have signed JT Riddle to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Kim (via Twitter). Riddle spent last season with the Pirates.
Speculatively, Riddle could eventually help insure against the departure of free agent Marwin Gonzalez. Riddle plays all over the diamond, with his market advantage being capable glovework at both shortstop and centerfield. He has appeared at every position besides pitcher and catcher over his four year career, with a majority of his playing time coming up the middle.
Though he appeared in 23 games for the Pirates last season, the bulk of Riddle’s career was with the Marlins from 2017 to 2019. In total, Riddle owns a career triple slash of .222/.261/.355, just a 63 wRC+. Therein lies the rub for Riddle, as he has yet to come anywhere close to producing league-average offense. For his career, a 5.0 percent walk rate, 21.9 percent strikeout rate, and .133 isolated power mark all fall below league averages.
Quick Hits: Sugano’s Deadline, Free Agent Market, Training Facilities
The posting period for Tomoyuki Sugano ends today at 5pm ET. He’s reportedly seeking more than the four-year, $56MM deal that Yusei Kikuchi signed to join the Mariners, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. That’s a hefty sum, and with a four-year contract in-hand to return to the Yomiuri Giants – a deal that includes three opt-outs – it begins to feel less likely that the Japanese legend will find the deal he desires. Still, he’s an absolute star in Japan and could be the best free agent starter not named Trevor Bauer. The Red Sox are still interested, as are the Blue Jays. The Mets are out. [UPDATE: “A return to Japan still appears most likely outcome” for Sugano, according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic]
While we wait for Sugano’s decision, let’s check in on some other league news…
- It was an omen of the winter to come when the Cleveland Indians waived their closer Brad Hand. When he went unclaimed, panic reached new heights. If Hand at $10MM went unclaimed by all 30 teams, free agent spending figured to be at an all-time low. Interest appears to be picking up on Hand, but on the whole, the market remains cold. Perhaps to an unprecedented degree, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Agents fear GMs are being intentionally obtuse about their payrolls in order to delay signings and inspire an ecosystem of desperation among players. The lack of face-to-face meetings might also be making the frigid environment easier to teams to maintain, suggests Nightengale. Elsewhere…
- Upon hearing that some teams were planning on opening up their facilities to allow players to come train, MLB sent a memo to all thirty clubs setting clear guidelines for the opening of training facilities, per Nightengale. The only players who will be allowed in their team facilities prior to spring training, Nightengale writes, are those who live near the facilities, those with specific health needs, and those approved in the CBA to attend club mini-camps. Violations will be subject to severe punishment. Of course, what that means is all relative. MLB is trying to get ahead of any potential outbreaks in January or February that would complicate initial protocols.