MLB Trade Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 20th — yes, 20th — annual Top 50 Free Agents list! These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power. To view the full 2025-26 free agent list, click here.  For more robust free agent sorting and filtering, subscribers enjoy our robust MLB Contract Tracker tool.  Change “Contract Status” to unsigned to view free agents.

Our annual list is a collaborative effort produced over the course of more than one month of debates among our team and, in certain cases (primarily foreign players who’ve yet to face major league pitching), input from major league scouts and industry sources we’ve cultivated over the years. The list is the culmination of hours upon hours of debate between Steve Adams, Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald.

Standard procedure for this list is for the four of us to agree on a consensus contract prediction for the players involved, though there are obvious disagreements along the way and not all of us are in full agreement on the final numbers put forth.

We’ve each made an individual slate of team picks as well, which are reflected immediately following each player’s contract prediction. In a few cases, there’s consensus or even unanimity, but these picks are for the most part made independently and without consulting one another.

If you’d like to roast Tim and/or Steve about our contract projections or team picks, we’ll be doing a live chat at 9am central time on Friday at this link.

Fans of many clubs might be rankled by the fact that their team appears underrepresented on this list. That’s inevitable but is also not a reflection that we expect that team to be inactive in the offseason or even in free agency. Each player write-up lists several teams we view as plausible fits. We can each only pick one, and naturally, that’s going to leave some clubs — particularly rebuilding teams, lower-payroll clubs and teams that generally don’t act aggressively in free agency — without many free agents predicted to sign there.

It should be emphasized that there are dozens of free agents who will command major league contracts beyond these 50. There’s also a broad array of trade candidates. If you missed our recent list of the 2025-26 Offseason’s Top 40 Trade Candidates, we published that the morning after the World Series concluded and encourage all readers to take a look. The trade market is an equally and in some cases even more viable path to augmenting a team’s roster.

Making team picks is part of the fun, which is why we hold a free agent prediction contest every year! This year’s contest is currently open and closes Thursday, November 13th at 11pm central time. Click here to enter! You can change your picks up until the deadline. Keep in mind that any player who signs prior to the deadline will be excluded from the results.

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It’s worth noting the current labor relations climate between MLB and the players’ union.  An offseason lockout by the owners after the 2026 season is all but guaranteed, which will put a freeze on transactions for an undetermined period of time.  It’s possible some players will eschew two-year deals with an opt-out as a way of avoiding a fractured return to free agency.  Owners are expected to push for a salary cap, which may cause the lockout to bleed into the 2027 season.  The specter of potential lost revenue in ’27 could cause some teams to exercise caution this winter.

1. Kyle Tucker, RF: 11 years, $400MM

Tim Dierkes’ prediction: Dodgers  / Anthony Franco’s prediction: Yankees  / Darragh McDonald’s prediction: Phillies / Steve Adams’ prediction: Giants

Tucker has been the unquestioned top free agent in the class from the moment Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed an extension with the Blue Jays. A former fifth overall pick and top prospect, Tucker has been an impact hitter since the Astros brought him up for good as part of their September call-ups in 2019. He played his way to down-ballot MVP votes by his second full big league season, the latest homegrown star to drive Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series.

Tucker hit 29 or 30 home runs in each season from 2021-23. He drove in more than 100 runs in two of those years, including an AL-leading 112 RBI in 2023. Tucker systematically improved his plate discipline along the way, drawing more walks while cutting his strikeouts. He was reliably worth around five wins above replacement annually and earned a top-five MVP finish in 2023.

That was consistently excellent production, but Tucker was a tier below the likes of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani among the sport’s elite hitters. It seemed he might vault himself into that rarefied air when he began the 2024 season with a monster .266/.395/.584 batting line with 19 home runs through his first 60 games. Then Tucker fouled a ball off his right leg in early June and landed on the injured list.

The Astros, notoriously cagey with injury updates, called it a shin contusion and suggested Tucker would be back within a matter of weeks. He wound up missing three months and said in early September that he’d actually suffered a fracture. Tucker came back no worse for wear, hitting .365/.453/.587 in the season’s final few weeks. He finished the ’24 campaign with a career-best .289/.408/.585 slash. He hit 23 homers and walked more often than he struck out. On a rate basis, he’d put himself alongside Soto and Ohtani as the best non-Judge hitters. The question was whether he’d repeat those heights over a full season.

That would not be answered in Houston. The Astros were never going to pay the kind of money it’d take to sign Tucker to an extension. Rather than play out his final arbitration year and lose him for a compensatory draft pick, the Astros traded him to the Cubs for three players. While Tucker’s first and potentially only season in Chicago was undoubtedly productive overall, it came with more peaks and valleys than the team expected.

Tucker began the season on a tear. He hit .283/.391/.520 with 12 homers through the end of May. On June 1, he jammed his right hand while diving into second base on a steal attempt. The Cubs said that x-rays came back negative, and he continued to play. Tucker had his best month of the season, batting .311/.404/.578 in June. Then came an out-of-nowhere slump in which his power evaporated. He hit .189/.325/.235 with one homer in 38 games from the start of July through the middle of August. Manager Craig Counsell sat him down for a three-game mental reset.

ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported in late August that Tucker had actually suffered a small fracture between the ring finger and pinky on that stolen base attempt. While initial x-rays had come back negative, follow-up testing later in the month revealed the fracture. The Cubs subsequently confirmed the news but said that Tucker was fully healthy by the time of the report in late August. The injury provided something of an explanation for the slump, but it also didn’t perfectly fit the timeline. Tucker had a phenomenal four weeks right after the fracture. Did lingering discomfort eventually sap his power, or was it simply a bad six-week stretch?

Tucker returned to the lineup after the three-day reset. He hit well over the next week and a half, then suffered a left calf strain. That one required an injured list stint that kept him out until the final weekend of the regular season. Tucker returned to hit .259 with one homer and a .375 on-base percentage in eight postseason games. He finished the year with a .266/.377/.464 slash line with 22 homers and 25 steals. He drew 87 walks while striking out 88 times. The season numbers look a lot like his 2021-23 production, but the injuries and underwhelming second half cloud his market a little bit.

Early in the year, it looked like Tucker could become the game’s fourth $500MM player. That’s tougher to envision now, though he should comfortably land the biggest contract in this year’s free agent class. They’ll be paying for the bat. Tucker is a former Gold Glove winner in right field, but his speed and defensive metrics have dipped over the past three seasons. While he should be fine in right for the next few seasons, there’s a decent chance he’ll move to first base or designated hitter at some point over a 10-plus year deal.

He’s entering his age-29 season. An 11-year deal would take him through age 39, the same age at which Judge’s nine-year contract concludes. Guerrero, Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner all got paid through 40. Tucker doesn’t have the up-the-middle defensive profile of Bogaerts or Turner, but he’s clearly a better hitter. Over the past five seasons, he ranks 11th among qualified batters in both OBP and slugging percentage. He’s likely to remain 35-40% better than league average at the plate for the next few years.

While Tucker’s camp at Excel Sports Management might start out with a half billion dollar asking price, the $400MM milestone is more realistic. Guerrero received a $35.7MM annual value on his 14-year extension. The age gap will prevent Tucker from getting a 14-year deal, but he could beat $36MM annually. An 11-year guarantee at that term would put him at $396MM — at which point he could probably convince a team to go to $400MM if he cares about the round number. A twelfth year would almost certainly push him past $400MM, while he could also take aim at becoming the fifth position player to secure a $40MM annual value. There should be enough interest for Tucker to get a decade-long commitment, though there’d surely be plenty of teams happy to explore a shorter term with opt-outs if he feels he’s not coming off an ideal platform year.

Tucker received and will reject a qualifying offer, so he’ll be attached to draft compensation. That doesn’t matter much for free agents of this caliber. The Cubs would need to shatter their franchise-record $184MM precedent to keep him, which seems unlikely. The Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Phillies all make sense as potential suitors. The Giants, Angels or Mets could be in the mix but might focus on starting pitching, while the Rangers seem unlikely to spend at this level.

2. Bo Bichette, SS: eight years, $208MM

Tim: Blue Jays  / Anthony: Blue Jays  / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Blue Jays

For years, Bichette’s path to a major free agent contract looked straightforward. He made his major league debut as a 21-year-old in 2019 and hit the ground running, with a .311/.358/.571 showing and 11 homers in his first 46 big league games. The second-round pick and second-generation star was as consistent as they come through 2023, hitting a combined .299/.340/.487 (126 wRC+) with regular 25-homer pop, above-average speed and a plus hit tool.

The 2024 season muddied the waters. Bichette missed time with a pair of calf strains early in the season and didn’t hit whatsoever when healthy. He returned late in the year, only to suffer a fractured finger when he was hit by a pitch, ending his season. His 2024 campaign concluded with an awful .225/.277/.322 slash (70 wRC+) in 81 games.

However, Bichette’s bat not only bounced back in 2025 — it climbed to its highest levels since that abbreviated rookie season. Still just in his age-27 campaign, he turned in an electric .311/.357/.483 line that was 34% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. This year’s 14.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. His 6.4% walk rate, while still a couple percentage points shy of average, was a career-high. Bichette posted a career-low chase rate and career-best contact rates both on balls within the strike zone and pitches off the plate.

Already enjoying a strong year midseason, Bichette went supernova beginning in early July. By measure of wRC+, he was baseball’s second-best hitter from July 6 through Sept. 6, raking at a preposterous .381/.437/.591 pace with just an 11% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate over a sample of 238 plate appearances. He looked to be sprinting toward a mammoth contract — until he quite literally could not physically sprint anymore.

A sprained PCL in Bichette’s knee ended his regular season on Sept. 6. He didn’t appear in the postseason until the World Series and was clearly hobbled in the Fall Classic — at least in terms of his footspeed. However, Bichette’s bat looked just fine. It was only seven games, but he went 8-for-23 with as many walks as strikeouts (four apiece) and a titanic three-run homer early in the pivotal Game 7. In a sample of 27 plate appearances, he picked up right where he left off, hitting .348/.444/.478.

The World Series was notable not only as a means of demonstrating Bichette’s relative health, but also his openness to playing a new position. Bichette’s defense at shortstop has been suspect for years, and his defensive grades bottomed out in 2025 (-12 Defensive Runs Saved, -13 Outs Above Average). Bichette slid to second base in deference to Andres Gimenez and looked comfortable there despite not having played the position since his minor league days in 2019.

Looking ahead, it’s possible there are teams that still think Bichette can play a passable shortstop for the next year or two, but his long-term home increasingly seems likely to be at second base. That’s not a position that’s typically well-compensated on the market, but Bichette is an All-Star-caliber hitter whose suspect arm strength would be mitigated with a move to the other side of the bag. At the very least, one can imagine he has the tools to play a solid second base, and there are plenty of below-average shortstops who become above-average or even plus defenders at second base when they make the switch.

Bichette will reject the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer. The Jays will want to keep him. The fact that Shane Bieber shockingly exercised his $16MM player option gives Toronto a much-needed rotation boost at a bargain-rate price. That unexpected windfall could make it easier to justify a massive expenditure to retain Bichette, but there will be competition. The Tigers have no set middle infield and have voiced a desire to put the ball in play more. The Giants have an obvious need at second base. The Braves could try Bichette at short for a year or two and then slide him over to second base, depending on Ozzie Albies’ ability to bounce back (or lack thereof). The Angels could use a second base upgrade and have spent in this range in the past. The Dodgers don’t “need” a second baseman with Tommy Edman and Hyeseong Kim both on the roster, but they can’t be ruled out on a big-ticket free agent like this.

Bichette is young enough, heading into his age-28 season, and potent enough in the batter’s box that it’s easy to imagine a team making some room to fit him into the mix by making a trade or two. After Tucker, he’s perhaps the best bet on this year’s free-agent market to clear $200MM in guaranteed money.

3. Dylan Cease, SP: seven years, $189MM

Tim: Red Sox  / Anthony: Orioles  / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Phillies

Cease may be the most durable pitcher in baseball, but in recent years he’s alternated between dominating and disappointing.  After a 2.20 ERA, second-place Cy Young finish in 2022, Cease followed with a 4.58 ERA.  He bounced back to a 3.47 ERA/fourth place Cy finish in ’24, only to revert to a 4.55 ERA this year.  You can imagine Cease ranking much higher on this list had those seasons occurred in a different order.

Cease had Tommy John surgery after he was drafted out of high school by the Cubs in 2014, but since reaching the Majors with the White Sox in July 2019 he’s never gone on the IL aside from a few days on the COVID list in 2021.  In fact, Cease is the only pitcher to make at least 32 starts in each of the last five seasons (though Kevin Gausman has made at least 31 in each).

Despite leading MLB in starts since 2021, Cease ranks only seventh in innings pitched because he does not go deep into games.  He ranked 83rd in baseball this year (minimum 100 innings) with 5.25 innings per start.  In his good years, at least, Cease has managed to rank top 40 with 5.7 innings per start, but still, he’s something of an anti-Framber Valdez in this regard.

Cease had a lower profile than Eloy Jimenez when the two Cubs prospects were sent along with two others to the White Sox for lefty Jose Quintana in 2017.  The following summer, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic prophetically wrote, “Someday, maybe this will be known as ’The Dylan Cease Trade.'”

Cease found his footing with the White Sox in 2021, going on a 12.4 WAR run over a three-year period.  With two years of control remaining, the rebuilding Sox sent him to San Diego for a package led by three prospects.  Cease had a strong 2024 season in San Diego, highlighted by the second no-hitter in Padres history.

Cease comes armed with a 97.1 mile per hour average fastball that ranked sixth among qualified starters this year.  Cease threw the most valuable slider in baseball in both 2022 and ’24 (he even wrote a poem about it), and he throws it even more than his fastball these days.  When batters swing at Cease’s offerings, they often miss – this year, he was 95th percentile in that regard.  Cease’s 29.8 K% ranked third among qualified starters this year, and he’s consistently ranked top ten in the game in strikeout rate.

As alluring as Cease’s strikeouts and durability are to GMs, he’s always issued too many free passes.  Cease walked nearly 10% of batters this year, third-worst among qualified starters.  Nor is he trending in the right direction; Cease walked 11% of batters since June.  If Cease has an off-year in terms of batting average on balls in play as he did this year with a .320 mark (perhaps somewhat due to the Padres’ defense), the result can be a whole lot of baserunners.  Though he’s a flyball pitcher, Cease has generally been able to keep the ball in the yard.

Statcast xERA and SIERA typically show Cease as a sub-3.60 ERA pitcher, but it’s difficult to ignore the disappointing vibes of two 4.50ish seasons in the last three.  Cease’s agent, Scott Boras, represented another high strikeout, high walk, five-and-dive type free agent starter recently in Blake Snell.

Even off a Cy Young 2023 season that concluded with 22 starts of utter dominance, Snell did not find the $200MM deal he was likely seeking the first time through free agency.  That led him to a two-year, $62MM deal signed with the Giants in March of 2024.  Snell then scuffled out of the gate, only to go on another epic run and land a five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers (including deferrals).

Though Cease never reached the heights of Snell, he hits free agency about a year younger and without durability concerns.  Cease turns 30 in December, and it’s possible some team will overlook his unsightly ERA and sign him long-term.  That’s where the MLBTR projection is at present.  If something close to $200MM isn’t presented, Cease and Boras may look to sign a two or three-year deal with opt-outs, earn a large salary in ’26, and re-enter the market sans QO and (hopefully) with a 3.50 or better ERA.  As with any free agent on this list, two years with an opt-out might be less than ideal given an expected lockout during the 2026-27 offseason.

Cease’s market could include the Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs, and Angels, among others.

4. Munetaka Murakami, 3B/1B: eight years, $180MM

Tim: Mets  / Anthony: Red Sox  / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Mets

It’s a fair question as to whether Murakami can actually handle third base at the big league level, but it’s not likely to matter all that much. Any team that is bidding on the 25-year-old slugger, who’s being posted by the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, will be bidding on his off-the-charts power. Murakami has true 80-grade power (on the 20-80 scale) from the left side of the plate — the type of prodigious thunder we’ve seen from lefty sluggers like countryman Shohei Ohtani and fellow free agent Kyle Schwarber. He’s topped 30 homers in five of his seven full seasons (NPB seasons are 144 games long) and would have done so in 2025 had an oblique injury not shelved him for a couple months to begin the season.

Murakami returned on absolute fire, belting 22 home runs in only 224 trips to the plate. He turned in a .273/.379/.663 batting line, walking in more than 14% of his plate appearances and delivering a comical .390 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Highlights of his all-fields power are fun to watch, both for the absolutely towering moonshots he can produce and for the blistering line-drive homers like this 117 mph torpedo to right field.

Murakami is a two-time NPB MVP, but both of those MVPs are a few years old now, falling in 2022-23. He hasn’t performed at quite that dominant level since, and concerns about his strikeout rate have emerged. The 6’1″, 213-pound masher fanned in only 21% of his plate appearances from ’22-’23, but he’s gone down on strikes in 28.8% of his turns at the plate in the three seasons since (including 28.6% this season).

The swing-and-miss concerns would be a bit lessened if major league scouts felt Murakami could play a solid third base. That doesn’t appear to be the case. He’s spent the bulk of his career in Japan at the hot corner, including most of the 2025 season, but publicly available scouting reports and major league scouts assessed Murakami for background purposes on this list indicated that his future home is as a first baseman/designated hitter. That ratchets up the pressure for his bat to play, but Murakami has dominated NPB in such prodigious fashion that there’s a good chance of that.

Murakami’s “worst” season in Japan, by measure of the wRC+ metric, came in 2019, when he was “only” 14% better than average … as a 19-year-old rookie. He’s been at least 53% better than average at the plate in every season since, with this year’s outrageous 210 mark suggesting he was 110% better than average.

On top of his outrageous power potential, Murakami has one key advantage over everyone else on this list: age. He’s 25 as of this writing and will turn 26 in February. Age is king on the open market, as we’ve seen with mega-deals for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Murakami isn’t going to reach the heights of anyone from that group, but he’s selling four seasons of his 20s and all of his early 30s. A massive nine-figure deal feels genuinely possible, particularly if any teams out there think he can at least play even a passable third base for a year or two before sliding across the diamond.

There’s obvious risk in this profile. Miguel Sano jumps to mind as a faux third baseman with 80 power who could never make enough contact to stick even as a first baseman. On the flip side of the coin, there are scenarios where Murakami is effectively a lite version of Kyle Schwarber’s skill set — but eight years younger with more defensive value as a competent first baseman. The range of outcomes is all over the place on Murakami, but the upside here is tantalizing enough that we’re predicting a huge investment — likely one with opt-outs along the way.

There will be a sizable cost on top of the contract guaranteed to Murakami himself. The signing club would owe a posting fee to the Swallows that is proportional to the size of the contract: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending thereafter. A $180MM contract would come with a posting fee just shy of $29MM.  It’s worth noting that the posting fee is not part of a team’s competitive balance tax calculation.

The Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Padres and Mariners all make varying degrees of sense. The Dodgers don’t seem likely to be involved — not with Freddie Freeman at first and Ohtani at DH. (They could technically trade Max Muncy and roll with Murakami at third base for two years until Freeman’s contract is up … but that’s a reach.) But most other big-market clubs could probably find a way to get Murakami into the lineup if they feel his nearly unrivaled raw power is worth the risk.

5. Alex Bregman, 3B: six years, $160MM

Tim: Tigers  / Anthony: Phillies  / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Tigers

Alex Bregman hits the free agent market for a second time, opting out of his Red Sox deal feeling a little bit lighter without the weight of a qualifying offer.  The market will decide whether he improved his standing otherwise since turning down last winter’s six-year offer, $171.5MM offer from the Tigers, which included deferred money and an opt-out after the second year.

Round numbers are typically a Boras Corporation goal, even if it takes multiple contracts to achieve a milestone.  Bregman reportedly sought seven years and $200MM from the Tigers.  He earned $40MM in 2025, though a good portion of that will be paid well into the future.  There would be a certain elegance to adding $160MM in new money to the $40MM he made this year.

Bregman’s track record is well-established after ten years in the Majors.  He was drafted second overall by the Astros out of Louisiana State in 2015, a draft that also produced fellow top free agents Kyle Tucker, Josh Naylor, and Trent Grisham within the first 15 picks.

Bregman established himself as a force for the Astros in 2017, the start of a three-year run in which he ranked second in baseball in WAR for position players.  Even post-peak, Bregman has settled in as a consistent 4+ WAR player.  He’s made three All-Star teams, including this year, and received MVP votes in four separate seasons.

Bregman is known for his strong contact rates; he’s often been top-10 in the game in that regard.  Bregman has never been one to put up big barrel or hard-hit rates.  Instead, he swings at strikes, makes contact when he swings, and gets the most exit velocity possible out of those swings.  Bregman’s defense at the hot corner remains consistently above-average, even resulting in his first Gold Glove last year at age 30.

Bregman’s legacy does have one blemish, as he was a participant in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  Some fans may never forgive him, but the scandal did not seem to affect the markets of George Springer and Carlos Correa.  Furthermore, Bregman is widely respected as a leader by players around the game, and had a coach-like impact in his lone year with the Red Sox.

With the Astros’ offers falling short last winter, Bregman left the only team he’d known, turning down offers from the Tigers and Cubs before landing a three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox that included significant deferrals and opt-outs after each year.

With meticulous attention to his swing, Bregman jumped out to a robust 156 wRC+ through his first 226 plate appearances with the Red Sox.  At that point, however, a right quadriceps strain knocked him out for 49 days.  Though he was said not to be 100%, Bregman kept up the same blistering pace for over a month upon his return.  Perhaps the lingering injury eventually caught up with him, as Bregman put up a brutal .180/.273/.262 line in his final 139 regular season plate appearances.

On the season, Bregman’s 125 wRC+ was in line with his recent work, though his hot start made much more seem possible.   His walk rate had dropped to a career-low last year but bounced back to 10.3% with Boston.

From all-around production to clubhouse impact, there’s a lot to like with Bregman.  Still, he turns 32 in March, and six-year free deals at that age for free agent position players are rare.  The last one was Freddie Freeman in March 2022.  The obvious number to top is Matt Chapman’s six-year, $151MM extension with the Giants.  Chapman is also represented by Boras, though that was something of an odd situation where Giants ownership reportedly had Buster Posey work directly with Chapman shortly before Farhan Zaidi’s ouster (though Boras disputed this account).

Bregman might be happy getting $160MM+ whether it’s on a five or six-year term.  There seems to be an expectation the Red Sox will get it done; they shed Rafael Devers’ contract and his accompanying position drama in a June trade with the Giants.  In his two years on the job, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow hasn’t signed a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which became one year anyway).  He’s done five extensions of six-plus years, but only Garrett Crochet’s deal even took a player through age 32.  Bregman is presumably looking to sign through age 36 or 37, and he’s probably too old to bother with opt-outs again unless he has no other choice.

By the end of the year, the Tigers had turned to a Zach McKinstry/Andy Ibáñez platoon at the hot corner, while the Cubs predominantly went with Matt Shaw.  The Tigers, having made good long-term offers last winter, seem more likely to renew their pursuit of Bregman.  If things don’t work out with the Red Sox, the Angels, Blue Jays, Mariners, Mets, and Phillies could be other possibilities.

6. Framber Valdez, SP: five years, $150MM

Tim: Giants  / Anthony: Cubs  / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Orioles

When you read about the Astros signing Framber Valdez out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 21, the word “ancient” gets thrown around, given that the top international free agents are five years younger.  The Astros signed the late-blooming Valdez for a mere $10K, armed with a curveball that “stood out from day one,” as then-international scouting director Oz Ocampo told Jake Kaplan of The Athletic.

It’d be years before the lefty would land on anyone’s prospect radar.  Valdez reached the Majors in late 2018, but didn’t establish himself until he landed the Astros’ fifth starter job out of the club’s 2020 “summer camp.”  He put up a fine ten-start season, and shined in four additional postseason outings.

Valdez fractured his left ring finger during spring training the following year, ducking potential surgery for a late-May season debut.  Thus began an excellent run of durability for Valdez, interrupted only by an April 2024 month-long stint for elbow inflammation.  Since Valdez’s ’21 season debut, he ranks second in MLB regular season innings behind only Logan Webb.

Beyond avoiding the IL, Valdez has been one of baseball’s top bullpen-savers since securing his spot in the Astros’ rotation back in 2020.  In each of those six seasons, Valdez has ranked no worse than eighth in baseball in innings per start, averaging at least 6.1 per outing.  In 2025, the typical start lasted less than 5.2 innings.

Valdez averaged 192 innings per year from 2022-25, matching that number this year.  He’s logged an additional 85 career postseason innings, earning a ring in 2022 when he posted a 1.44 playoff ERA.  2022 was Valdez’s finest season, with a 2.82 ERA in an AL-leading 201 1/3 regular season frames – a campaign that landed him fifth in the Cy Young voting.  Valdez set an MLB single-season record with 25 straight quality starts that year.

Valdez has typically been able to hover a tick above average in his strikeout rate, and sometimes a tad worse than average in issuing free passes.  But he’s a master at keeping the ball on the ground, with a groundball rate in the 60% range that’s usually good for top three in baseball.  As a result, Valdez is routinely among baseball’s best at limiting home runs.

ERAs tend to fluctuate, but Valdez’s 3.66 mark this year was in line with his current skill set.  It’s dangerous to attempt to read into small samples, but Valdez did not have a strong walk year finish.  He was down to a 2.62 ERA after a July 28th gem against the Nationals, but limped to a 6.05 mark with a sub-18 K% over his final ten starts.  That stretch included a cross-up of catcher Cesar Salazar that appeared purposeful to many viewers at home, but was said by both parties to be unintentional.

Three-plus additional starts in the postseason had become typical for Valdez, but the Astros’ eight-year playoff streak ended this year.  In his final start of the year, and perhaps his Astros career, Valdez kept the club’s wild card hopes alive with seven strong innings.

Valdez has said the right things about returning to the Astros, but in nearly 14 years under Jim Crane’s ownership the team has yet to exceed Lance McCullers Jr.’s five-year, $85MM extension from March 2021 in both years and total for a starting pitcher.  Perhaps more relevant, they have topped McCullers’ $17MM average annual value by doing a pair of contracts with Justin Verlander with respective $33MM and $25MM AAVs.

Valdez is a touch more volume than dominance, and due to his late entrance into baseball, he’ll reach free agency at 32 years of age.  Aside from Zack Greinke coming off a 1.66 ERA in 2015, we haven’t seen a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher.  Though rare, five years is on the table; Blake Snell achieved it a year ago at the same age.  After accounting for deferrals, Snell’s deal equated to about $150MM, perhaps a reasonable target for Valdez.

Valdez comes tagged with a qualifying offer, no different than younger competing free agents Dylan Cease and Ranger Suarez.  We’ll soon learn whether Valdez’s track record of logging innings will take precedence over his advancing age.  The Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs are among the potential suitors.

7. Tatsuya Imai, SP: six years, $150MM

Tim: Cubs  / Anthony: Dodgers  / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Dodgers

Imai, who is expected to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He has a chance to land the biggest contract of any pitcher based on his performance in Japan and his youth. The 5’11” right-hander won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He is coming off consecutive dominant seasons.

Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He was one of six NPB pitchers with at least 100 innings who allowed two or fewer earned runs per nine. Imai ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league with a 27.8% strikeout rate. Japan’s top league is a favorable one for pitchers, but Imai has been excellent even within that context.

That wasn’t always the case. Imai struggled early in his career, particularly with command. He walked at least 11% of opponents in each of his first six seasons. Imai has gradually cut the free passes in six consecutive years, though, and this past season’s 7% mark is solid. He’s unlikely to ever have pristine command, but he’s now throwing enough strikes that there’ll be plenty of teams who project him as a starting pitcher.

Clubs that like him will probably view Imai as a potential mid-rotation arm. He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and can push towards the upper 90s at his best. Imai’s slider is the best secondary offering in a four- or five-pitch repertoire. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke felt Imai projected more as a back-end arm or a late-inning reliever, but the team that wins the bidding is naturally going to be one that is confident he’ll be an above-average starter.

As is the case with Murakami, the team that signs Imai will owe a significant posting fee to his NPB club. Our $150MM prediction would come with a fee of $24.375MM that pushes the overall investment close to $175MM. Imai’s field will be determined largely by teams’ scouting evaluations, but it stands to reason he’ll be linked to most of the big-market franchises that are usually involved on the top NPB free agents. The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Padres and Red Sox all make sense as potential landing spots.  Imai may also be coveted by a team looking to make in-roads into the Japanese market, such as the Orioles.

8. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B: five years, $140MM

Tim: Yankees  / Anthony: Rangers  / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Yankees

The two injury-ruined years following Bellinger’s shoulder surgery are a distant memory. While the former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP has had an uneven three seasons dating back to his 2023 rebound, the overall quality of his work in that time has been undeniable. In his past 1,781 plate appearances, Bellinger has slashed .281/.338/.477 with 73 home runs, 77 doubles and nine triples. The strikeouts that once plagued him have not only gone down — he’s become one of the toughest players in all of baseball to punch out.

Bellinger’s age-29 season with the Yankees resulted in a .272/.334/.480 with 29 homers (his most since 2019) and a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate (16th-lowest in MLB among qualified hitters). He was much better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, as one would expect for a pull-heavy lefty with above-average power. Bellinger wasn’t necessarily a bad hitter on the road, but 18 of his 29 round-trippers were produced in the Bronx.

One even more notable split, however, is Bellinger’s platoon split — or rather, his lack thereof. Bellinger thrived in left-on-left situations this season, hitting .353/.415/.601 in 176 turns at the plate. This isn’t just a 2025 development, either. The two-time All-Star has torched lefties across the past three seasons, hitting a combined .329/.371/.546 in 526 plate appearances. Among the 125 players who have taken at least 100 plate appearances against left-handed pitching as a left-handed hitter since 2023, Bellinger and his 151 wRC+ trail only Yordan Alvarez for the MLB lead. Put more simply: Cody Bellinger is basically platoon-proof. That’s valuable throughout the season but especially in the playoffs, when opposing managers are most aggressive with their pitching matchups.

Defensively, Bellinger is still playable in all three outfield spots and at first base. The Yankees used him almost exclusively in the outfield, with Paul Goldschmidt and Ben Rice taking considerable time at first base. Bellinger graded as a plus defender in both corners and was a bit below average in center. He hasn’t played a lot of first base in recent years — 26 innings in 2025 and 581 overall since 2023 — but he’s drawn above-average grades there during that time.

Bellinger didn’t get the colossal long-term deal he and the Boras Corporation surely sought coming off his original 2023 rebound season with the Cubs, but it was a no-brainer for him to opt out of the final season of his current deal when it was a net $20MM decision. Bellinger, who cannot receive a qualifying offer after receiving one earlier in his career, has already banked $77MM since being non-tendered by the Dodgers, and he’s now firmly in position to get the nine-figure deal that eluded him in the 2023-24 offseason. The Yankees want to keep him, and Bellinger would make sense for the Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays, Reds, Padres and Guardians, among others.

9. Kyle Schwarber, DH: five years, $135MM

Tim: Phillies  / Anthony: Phillies  / Darragh: Phillies / Steve: Phillies

The fourth overall pick in 2014, Schwarber had two 30-homer seasons with the Cubs early in his career. Chicago non-tendered him after an unproductive showing during the shortened 2020 campaign. That proved to be a major misstep for the Cubs’ front office. Schwarber rebounded with a 32-homer showing between the Nationals and Red Sox, then signed a four-year deal with the Phillies going into 2022.

That was one of the best free agent signings of the past few years. Schwarber appeared in MVP ballots in the first three seasons and is on track for at least a top five finish this year. He has hit .226/.349/.507 with 187 longballs over the past four seasons. Only Aaron Judge has more homers in that time.

Last season was Schwarber’s best. He led MLB with 132 runs batted in while pacing the National League with a career-high 56 home runs. Schwarber finished the year with a .240/.365/.563 slash while starting all 162 games. Unsurprisingly, Schwarber’s Statcast page is a sea of red. He’s alongside Judge, Shohei Ohtani, James Wood and Oneil Cruz at the top of the batted ball metrics leaderboards. It’s legitimate 80-grade power on the scouting scale. Schwarber is going to approach or exceed 200 strikeouts every year, but he’s also rank among the top handful of hitters in walks to keep his on-base percentage high.

Schwarber returns to the market in advance of his age-33 season. He’s likely to become the first position player at that age to sign for at least four years since Starling Marte did it over the 2021-22 offseason. A five-year deal at that age would be without precedent but might not be out of the question, especially if a signing team wants to slightly lower the annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. Schwarber should become the first 33-year-old free agent hitter to surpass $100MM and the first full-time designated hitter of any age to do so.

The Phillies have made no secret of their desire to bring Schwarber back. Phils’ players and executives have effusively praised his clubhouse presence and leadership on top of the dominant results. They issued him a qualifying offer, which he’ll obviously reject. That ensures they’d get a compensatory pick after the fourth round of the 2026 draft if he signs elsewhere, but their offseason priority is to keep him around. They’re likely to face a push from the Reds, whose lineup would be transformed if they can convince the Cincinnati-area native to play for his childhood favorite team. There’s an argument for the Cubs bringing him back if Tucker walks, while the Red Sox and Orioles could be long shot suitors.

10. Ranger Suarez, SP: five years, $115MM

Tim: Blue Jays  / Anthony: Giants  / Darragh: Cubs / Steve: Cubs

Suarez was an unheralded amateur signee who spent the first few seasons of his career in a swing role with the Phillies. He has been a steady mid-rotation arm since they gave him a rotation spot going into 2022. Suarez has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. He doesn’t blow hitters away but finds success with his ability to keep the ball on the ground and stay off barrels. He’s 10th in MLB with a 50.8% grounder rate over the past four seasons (minimum 400 innings).

Last season was arguably the best of Suarez’s career. He turned in a 3.20 earned run average with a slightly above-average 23.2% strikeout rate while walking fewer than 6% of opponents. He set a new career mark with 157 1/3 innings and posted a quality start in 17 of his 26 outings. Aside from an early-season stint on the injured list with lower back soreness, he was reliably durable and effective. As an added bonus, Suarez has proven himself a strong October performer over the Phils’ recent playoff appearances. He has a 1.48 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opposing hitters over 11 postseason outings.

It’s nevertheless an unconventional profile for a pitcher who is likely to command a nine-figure deal. In an age of power pitching, he’s getting by with a sinker that averaged 90 MPH. His swinging strike rate has landed between 8-10% in all four seasons as a full-time starter, below the 10.6% league mark for starting pitchers. Suarez has also required at least one stint on the injured list in each of the past five years. None have proven all that serious, and his most recent arm-related issue was a minor elbow strain that he suffered pitching for his native Venezuela in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. There’s no indication that teams are going to have serious questions about Suarez’s durability, but he has also yet to reach 160 innings in an MLB season because of the scattered injury history.

Philadelphia made Suarez a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject. While he has some statistical similarities to Max Fried, he’s unlikely to come close to the eight-year, $218MM deal Fried commanded because of the four mile per hour gap in their respective velocities. A five- or six-year deal could be on the table. Suarez may be able to beat the $110-115MM Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray precedents, which are now fours old. The Phillies seem likelier to prioritize a reunion with Schwarber than bring Suarez back. Any contender could fit, with teams like the Giants, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Cubs expected to be in the market for a #2/3 type starter.

11. Pete Alonso, 1B: four years, $110MM

Tim: Reds  / Anthony: Mets  / Darragh: Red Sox / Steve: Red Sox

If at first you don’t succeed, try again.  After a suitable long-term deal failed to materialize for Pete Alonso last winter, he signed a two-year, $54MM deal to stay with the Mets.  Naturally, the second year was a $24MM player option, meaning Alonso had downside protection but expected to return to the market with a good season.

31 in December, Alonso made his fifth All-Star game in 2025 and posted a 141 wRC+ that represents his best work since 2022.  He fell two longballs shy of his fourth 40-homer campaign, but more than made up for it by setting career highs with 41 doubles and a .272 batting average.  There was a bit of inconsistency, particularly with a brutal month of July, but a 153 wRC+ over the season’s final two months means Alonso re-enters free agency on a high note.

Since his 2019 debut, Alonso’s 264 home runs rank third in MLB, though peers Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani all gained ground in 2025 by mashing 53, 56, and 55 dingers respectively.

I learned today that actual polar bears can run in excess of 36 feet per second, faster than the speediest of MLB players.  Alas, Alonso has eighth percentile sprint speed (among MLB humans), making him a net negative on the basepaths.  Alonso is also one of the game’s worst defensive first basemen, per Statcast Outs Above Average.

The batting part of Alonso’s Statcast page is still covered in red, and Alonso’s expected batting average was even better than his real one.  His 2025 offensive season ranks second only to Schwarber among free agents, and Alonso is 21 months younger than his fellow NL East slugger.

Sure, Alonso should probably join Schwarber as a full-time DH, but even then you can make a pretty good case for the former as a better investment.  Alonso strikes out less, and is ineligible for a qualifying offer.  The Mets’ late-season collapse prevented Alonso from accentuating his free agent case, not that a strong postseason did him much good last winter.

In 2023, the Mets reportedly offered Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension that would’ve covered the 2024-30 seasons.  Having banked $50.5MM for 2024-25, Alonso and Scott Boras now need to top $107.5MM over the next five years to come out ahead.  That seems plausible enough.

With Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns focused on improving run prevention, is there a spot for Alonso in the short or long-term?  Shifting Alonso to the DH spot would mean another poor defender, Juan Soto, has to stay on the grass.  Mets owner Steve Cohen called the Alonso negotiations “exhausting” before a deal was completed last winter; it’s unclear whether either side would be thrilled with a two-year deal with an opt-out again.  The Mets seem unlikely to give him the long-term deal he wants.  It’s not known whether Alonso received better than a three-year offer from any team last winter.

Topping five years would be a surprise, and there will surely be clubs hoping to land Alonso for three or four years. A $26MM annual value would put Alonso in line with the AAV on Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM extension, which began in his age-32 season. Getting to $27MM would tie him with Freeman’s pre-deferral AAV. We’ve got Alonso nudging past that mark on a four-year pact, though a five-year deal can’t be ruled out.

The Mets could once again linger as a fallback option, willing to pounce with another short-term deal, but there’ll be other suitors with a prominent need at first base. The Red Sox, Reds, Rangers, Guardians and Angels all received middling production from their first base options (though obviously it’d be a fairly big shock to see Cleveland push to this level). The Mariners and Padres have impending free agents at first base. A four-year deal in the $27MM AAV range, or five years in the mid-20s AAV-wise, could be in play for the slugger.

12. Josh Naylor, 1B: five years, $90MM

Tim: Mariners  / Anthony: Reds  / Darragh: Mariners / Steve: Mariners

Naylor doesn’t have the power that Alonso brings to the table, but he’s another first-base-only player who’ll hit the market without a qualifying offer — in his case, by virtue of the fact that he’s ineligible to receive one after bring traded midseason. Between that and Naylor’s youth — he won’t turn 29 until next June — he could be more preferable to some teams seeking first base help.

While both Naylor and Alonso are strict first basemen, the similarities in their profiles generally stop there. Naylor has a 31-homer season under his belt (2024) but has typically been more of a 20-homer bat. He brings a hit-over-power skill set to the plate, fanning in only 13.7% of his plate appearances this past season and just 16% of his career plate appearances. Naylor’s batted-ball metrics are all at or very close to league-average. He doesn’t walk at an especially high clip, and while he’s clearly a very intelligent baserunner — he stole 30 bases in 2025 — he ranks in just the second percentile of big leaguers in terms of sprint speed.

Those limitations notwithstanding, Naylor just keeps hitting. He’s been at least 18% better than league-average at the plate in each of the past four seasons, by measure of wRC+. The 2015 Marlins first-rounder touts a collective .275/.336/.464 batting line in 2,230 turns at the plate since 2021. Statcast rates him as a slightly above-average first baseman with the glove, while Defensive Runs Saved has him slightly below. He may not be a true plus defender at first, but he hasn’t been a liability over there.

As noted with regard to Alonso, the market hasn’t exactly been kind to pure first basemen in recent years. On the flip side, it does tend to treat players who reach free agency at 28 or younger quite nicely. There ought to be a solid middle ground for Naylor, who could command a deal of five or more years but probably not at a premium annual value. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said on our podcast last month that he hopes to re-sign Naylor. They’ll be in the mix along with perhaps the Reds, Red Sox, Rangers, Guardians, Angels and Padres. Naylor is young enough that a team on its way out of a rebuild could seemingly throw its hat into the ring as well.

13. Edwin Diaz, RP: four years, $82MM

Tim: Dodgers  / Anthony: Giants  / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Blue Jays

Diaz already set the record for the largest overall guarantee ($102MM) and largest average annual value ($20.4MM) any reliever has ever received. His five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets allowed him to opt out and return to free agency this winter, and with “only” two years and $38MM remaining on that pact, he took the opt out and will take aim at toppling at least one of his own standing records.

With Diaz set to pitch next year at 32, it’s unlikely he’ll command another five-year deal. That makes it unlikely that he can find another nine-figure deal and top his record guarantee. However, Diaz should still have enough juice to get a four-year contract, and he could take aim at his AAV record.

A ruptured patellar tendon suffered during the 2023 World Baseball Classic wiped out Diaz’s entire ’23 season, but he’s right back to peak form. Diaz’s 2024 season produced a 3.52 ERA that stands as the second-highest of his brilliant career, but his K-BB profile remained outstanding and his 2025 season was one of his best. Diaz tossed 66 1/3 innings, saved 28 games and fanned a whopping 38% of his opponents — against a lower-than-average 8.1% walk rate. He’s no longer averaging 99 mph on his four-seamer, but he still sat 97.2 mph in 2025 and recorded an outrageous 18% swinging-strike rate. That was fourth-best among the 287 big league pitchers who tossed at least 60 innings, trailing only Mason Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Griffin Jax. His 62% opponents’ contact rate was the fourth-lowest in MLB as well.

Diaz might not be the best reliever in the majors right now, but he’s not far off. He’ll turn 32 in March. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, there have been five relievers in the past decade who’ve secured a contract of four or more years beginning at age 32 or older: Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Mark Melancon, Darren O’Day and Wandy Peralta. O’Day and Peralta were setup men who were never going to command top-of-the-scale money. (Peralta’s four-year term was largely a CBT duck by the Padres.) Diaz is better now than any of those pitchers were when they secured those deals.

It’s worth mentioning that Suarez did get a fifth year at this age, though that was with a more modest $9.2MM annual value. It’s hard to imagine a team going five years with top-of-the-scale annual value for a second time, but four years at more than $20.4MM annually seems achievable.

The Mets pounced to proactively re-sign Diaz before he could truly even test his market last time. That deal was under former GM Billy Eppler. Will new president of baseball operations David Stearns make a similarly aggressive strike? It’s hard to see, but it’s always possible owner Steve Cohen could take matters into his own hands and retain his superstar stopper. If not, Diaz is going to draw interest from basically every big-market contender (e.g. Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays) and possibly from some smaller-payroll clubs with plenty of long-term financial flexibility (e.g. Tigers, Orioles). The Angels haven’t been shy about shelling out huge dollars for relievers, either (Raisel Iglesias, Robert Stephenson).

14. Michael King, SP: four years, $80MM

Tim: Orioles  / Anthony: Tigers  / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Yankees

King, 31 in May, spent the first few seasons of his MLB career working mostly in a multi-inning relief role for the Yankees. His continued effectiveness and injuries to various other starters led the Yankees to try him out in a rotation role late in 2023. King put up a 2.23 ERA over nine starts. It was enough for the Padres to make him the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade the following offseason.

San Diego kept King in the rotation going into 2024. They were rewarded with the best season of his career. He finished seventh in Cy Young balloting behind a 2.95 ERA over 31 appearances. He was out to an even better start to his 2025 walk year, pitching to a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts.

The Padres scratched King from a scheduled start on May 24. Then-manager Mike Shildt said that King felt like he’d slept awkwardly on his shoulder and could make the following start. That was not to be. He went on the injured list a few days later and was eventually diagnosed with a pinched nerve. The team ruled out any structural damage, but the nagging injury wound up costing him three months.

King came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation likely caused by ramping up too quickly. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.

He was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. He pitched a scoreless inning in relief, striking out three of four batters faced. His stuff looked sharp, as he averaged a little under 96 MPH on his fastball. It’s easier to cut loose in a one-inning stint in a high-pressure environment, though, so the shoulder issue still clouds his market.

Despite the rough finish, it was an easy call for King to decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres in favor of a $3.75MM buyout.  It also wasn’t terribly surprising that the Padres issued King a qualifying offer.  As a competitive balance tax payor, they’ll receive draft picks after the fourth round if King and Cease sign elsewhere.

Before the injury, King was trending towards a nine-figure deal. That’s less likely now, and the qualifying offer doesn’t help.  Given his age and the impending lockout, we think King should take a four-year offer if it’s in the $80MM range.  If those don’t materialize, he’s a candidate for a short-term deal with an opt-out.

15. Zac Gallen, SP: four years, $80MM

Tim: Diamondbacks  / Anthony: Angels  / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Giants

Gallen has a lot of major league success on his track record but all the recent trends haven’t been great. Back in 2022, he tossed 184 innings for the Diamondbacks with a 2.54 ERA. His 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were all above league average. He finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

In 2023, he increased his workload to 210 innings, plus another 33 2/3 in the postseason. In that regular season work, his ERA climbed to 3.47. His walk rate improved a bit to 5.6% but his strikeouts fell to 26% and his grounder rate dropped to 41.8%. In 2024, he missed over a month due to a hamstring strain, limiting him to 148 innings. His 3.65 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate were all worse than the year prior, though he increased his ground ball rate to 46.2%.

2025 saw a bigger drop in results. He stayed healthy and logged 192 innings but his ERA climbed to 4.83. His 21.5% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 43.6% ground ball rate were all close to league par. In a sense, he seemed to improve as the year went along, as he had a 5.40 ERA in the first half and a 3.97 ERA in the second half. However, his first half strikeout rate of 22.2% was actually better than his 20.5% rate in the second. He seemed to benefit from good fortune, as his BABIP went from a league-average .290 in the first half to just .241 in the second half.

A few years ago, Gallen seemed to be a budding ace who was pitching his way to a nine-figure guarantee. But he’s now coming off a middling season. His strikeout rate has dropped in three straight years. Perhaps Gallen will accept his decline in skills and attempt to max out this winter, particularly with a lockout expected after the 2026 season. But if his market is soft, he could wind up going the short-term, opt-out route, which would allow him to bounce back and rebuild value before returning to free agency for a larger payday.

Complicating matters, Gallen received a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks.  He faces the same set of pros and cons as King, who was born 70 days earlier back in 1995.

Gallen’s stock is undeniably down but even his diminished results in 2025 would upgrade almost any rotation around baseball, especially as clubs will be hoping they are buying low on a guy who could return to an ace-like form.

16. Devin Williams, RP: four years, $68MM

Tim: Giants  / Anthony: Blue Jays  / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Mets

The trickiest evaluation in the relief class, Williams hits the market coming off the worst season of his career. A former second round pick who struggled as a minor league starter, Williams took off once the Brewers moved him to the bullpen in 2019. He reached the majors that year and established himself as one of the sport’s top strikeout artists by his first full season. After a couple years of dominant setup work, Williams became a full-time closer when the Brewers traded Josh Hader at the ’22 deadline.

Williams went 36 for 40 in save chances while posting a 1.53 ERA the following year. He missed the first half of the ’24 season after being diagnosed with multiple stress fractures in his back during Spring Training. Williams returned from that looking every bit as dominant. He saved 14 of 15 opportunities while turning in a 1.25 ERA over 22 regular season appearances down the stretch. His time in Milwaukee ended on a crushing note when he surrendered a go-ahead home run to Pete Alonso in an elimination game, but the Yankees undoubtedly felt they were getting one of the sport’s best closers when they acquired him last winter. New York sent starter Nestor Cortes and rookie infielder Caleb Durbin to the Brew Crew for one year of Williams’ services.

Williams never fully clicked in the Bronx. He was blown up three times before the end of April, leading the Yanks to take him out of the closer role. He seemed to right the ship in May and June and reclaimed the ninth inning once Luke Weaver went on the injured list. Then came another poor stretch between July and August, leading the Yanks to acquire David Bednar and commit to Williams in a setup role. He posted a 5.06 ERA after the All-Star Break, and while he technically managed four scoreless innings in the postseason, he allowed a pair of inherited runners to score to essentially lock up an elimination loss to the Blue Jays in the Division Series.

Williams concluded the regular season with a 4.79 ERA. He recorded 18 saves and 15 holds while blowing four leads and taking the loss six times. The results clearly weren’t what the Yankees expected. That said, there will be teams that still feel Williams isn’t far away from the form that made him one of the top five relievers in the game. His 94.1 MPH average fastball speed is essentially a match for the velocity from his knockout ’23 season. Williams’ wiffle ball changeup/screwball, the so-called “Airbender,” still moves unlike any pitch in MLB. Among pitchers with 20+ innings this year, he ranked 13th with a 34.7% strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike percentage.

So what explains the downturn in Williams’ performance? There will obviously be some who attribute it to the bright lights of New York. The more logical explanation is a 55.2% left on base rate that was the lowest in the majors (minimum 50 innings). A true inability to strand runners would obviously be a problem for a reliever, but LOB% tends not to be statistically reliable in small samples. Williams had never had trouble pitching out of trouble in Milwaukee. There’s precedent for an elite reliever to have an ERA spike and then bounce back. Edwin Diaz had a 5.59 ERA in 2019 then was at 1.75 the next year. Hader had a 5.22 ERA in 2022 and then finished the following year at 1.28. Smart clubs may see this as a chance to get a premium talent when his market is a bit soft.

Understandably, Williams’ time in New York went poorly enough that the Yankees chose not to issue a qualifying offer.  That supports Williams pursuing the best possible multiyear deal this winter, as an elite bounceback season in 2026 would surely result in a QO.

The Marlins have already been linked to Williams as they prepare for a run at a late-inning reliever. The Tigers, Angels, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Braves and Cubs could also be in the mix.

17. Brandon Woodruff, SP: three years, $66MM

Tim: Mets  / Anthony: Mets  / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Cubs

Woodruff has been one of the best pitchers in the league since he earned a spot in Milwaukee’s rotation in 2019. He was a top five Cy Young finisher in 2021 and combined for a 2.76 ERA with a 30.2% strikeout rate between 2020-23. A warning sign arose when Woodruff missed most of the first half of the ’23 season with shoulder discomfort. He returned and dominated down the stretch, but the righty underwent an anterior capsule repair surgery that October. The rehab process would cost him the ’23 postseason and the entire 2024 campaign.

The Brewers chose not to tender Woodruff a contract for what would have been his last year of arbitration. They instead renegotiated a backloaded two-year deal that paid him $7.5MM in salary over those two seasons and allowed him to collect a hefty $10MM mutual option buyout after the ’25 campaign (which is actually not yet due). Woodruff wasn’t quite ready to return for the ’25 campaign, though the Brewers sent him on a minor league rehab assignment in the middle of April.

Woodruff’s rehab had a few pauses. He missed a couple weeks with ankle tendinitis, then was shut back down in early June after taking a comebacker off his throwing elbow. Woodruff was finally able to make his return shortly before the All-Star Break. He picked up essentially where he’d left off, reeling off 64 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball over 12 starts. He struck out a career-high 32.3% of opponents against a personal-low 5.4% walk rate. The Brewers were shaping up to have Woodruff and Freddy Peralta as co-aces atop their playoff rotation.

That was not to be. Milwaukee placed Woodruff back on the injured list in the final week of the regular season with a moderate lat strain. The two-time All-Star said the injury occurred during a between starts bullpen session. Woodruff acknowledged in September that he was “not surprised” and acknowledged that he knew the shoulder might flare up at some point as he worked back from the surgery. The Brewers never formally shut him down for the season, but he had yet to resume throwing by the time the team had set their roster for the NLCS. It doesn’t seem there was much of a chance that he could’ve pitched in the World Series either.

On October 3rd, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy wrote, “The good news is that after Woodruff visited with Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas, every indication is that his surgically repaired right shoulder is sound, and he has a solid long-term outlook for pitching beyond this season.”  He continued, “Woodruff has been receiving treatment for the lat strain, a process which has been described to him as akin to treating a strained hamstring. ”

Teams are now tasked with a risk-reward calculus on an extremely talented pitcher who has made all of 23 starts over the last three years. Woodruff’s results were as strong as ever once he returned from the surgery, but the raw stuff wasn’t the same. A fastball that once averaged 96-97 MPH was down to 93 this year. Woodruff also lost a couple ticks off his changeup and curveball while trading out his slider for a new cutter.

The Brewers’ choice to issue Woodruff a qualifying offer did not come as a major surprise.  The prospect of draft pick forfeiture will certainly damage his market, particularly in the cases of CBT-paying suitors.

Woodruff turns 33 in February. His age would’ve capped him at three or four years even if he’d been fully healthy. Assuming a clean physical, we still expect Woodruff to have strong demand on a short-term deal as a potential front of the rotation starter – possibly enough to secure three years despite the QO.  Woodruff, a Mississippi native, has spoken highly of the roots he’s dug in Milwaukee.  He may set aside his open-market earning potential to return next year, as Shane Bieber did in Toronto.  In that case, it’d be as easy as accepting the $22.025MM QO.

But if Woodruff declines to look for the best possible contract, the Mets, Giants, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers, and Braves are among a dozen or so teams that could plausibly make a run at him.

18. Trent Grisham, CF: four years, $66MM

Tim: Angels  / Anthony: Rays  / Darragh: Angels / Steve: Astros

In the course of a single season, Trent Grisham shifted his appeal from his glove to his bat.  That transformation is going to make him a lot more money than anyone could’ve anticipated in spring training.

Grisham was a Brewers first-rounder out of high school in 2015.  He made his MLB debut in August 2019, and was shipped to the Padres with Zach Davies for Luis Urias and Eric Lauer four months later.  The Padres sent Manuel Margot packing that winter and installed Grisham as their starting center fielder for 2020.  At the age of 23, Grisham delivered what would long stand as his finest offensive season and also won his first Gold Glove in that COVID-shortened campaign.  The Gold Glove was well-deserved; he was one of the fastest, rangiest players in baseball at the time.  Stardom seemed in the offing.

Grisham’s speed and defense held as elite for years, though his bat declined.  He picked up a second Gold Glove in 2022, but that came with a career-worst 83 wRC+ and 28.6% strikeout rate.

After four years as the Padres’ starting center fielder, the club sent Grisham to the Yankees as a secondary piece along with Juan Soto.  He had a forgettable 2024 season for the Yankees, getting platooned more than ever and playing in only 76 games despite being on the active roster all season.  After riding the pine for all 14 Yankees postseason games last year, Grisham was widely considered a non-tender candidate.  Instead, he took a $500K pay cut for a $5MM pre-tender deal to remain a Yankee for 2025.

With Cody Bellinger swapped out for Juan Soto this year, Grisham seemed poised for another year as a fourth outfielder.  Instead, Grisham hit his way into a semi-regular role, aided by Jasson Dominguez failing to seize one himself.  In his age-28 season, Grisham doubled his previous career-high with 34 home runs, and he went absolutely nuts in high-leverage situations, too.  Grisham isn’t one of those “he went to Driveline” stories, however; the man nicknamed The Big Sleep told MLB.com’s Robert Hudson, “I think I’m just more committed to my process this year.”

Grisham’s newfound offensive prowess was backed by Statcast indicators, such as an 89th percentile barrel rate and an expected slugging percentage even higher than his actual .464 mark.  Nor was it an April mirage; Grisham’s first and second halves were both right around his season wRC+ of 129.  Among qualified center fielders, only Byron Buxton out-hit Grisham.  He bolstered his season with a 14.1% walk rate, good for ninth in baseball.  Though Grisham has had success at times against lefties in his career, he’s managed only an 86 wRC+ against them in 196 plate appearances since 2024.

Grisham posted a solid career-best 3.2 fWAR, though that would’ve been higher had he not reversed his skill set.  He was the best center fielder in baseball in 2022, but Grisham’s speed and range dropped precipitously from that point.  Grisham had 32nd percentile sprint speed this year, making him perhaps the slowest regular center fielder in baseball.  For the first time in his career, Grisham’s Statcast Outs Above Average slipped to a below-average level (albeit only slightly).  By measure of Defensive Runs Saved, he was fifth-worst in baseball, though his reputation seems to remain intact.

Unwilling to pay Grisham more than $5MM a year ago, the Yankees were forced to decide whether his offensive explosion justifies more than quadrupling his salary.  The club is faced with the potential loss of two starting outfielders, given Bellinger’s free agency.  They chose to issue Grisham a qualifying offer, seeking either some center field certainty for 2026 if he accepts, or draft pick compensation after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere.  Several other teams figure to seek help in center field, including the Angels, Giants, Rays, Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies.

19. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B/1B: four years, $64MM

Tim: Padres  / Anthony: Diamondbacks  / Darragh: Pirates / Steve: Cubs

Okamoto, the captain of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yomiuri Giants and one of the best hitters in Japan, will be posted for major league teams this winter. Though he and countryman Murakami are both feared middle-of-the-order bats in NPB, there are reasons for Okamoto to be further down the list.

First and foremost is age. At 29 years old (30 next June), Okamoto is four years older than Murakami. He’s been a consistent source of power overseas but doesn’t have the same 80-grade raw power possessed by Murakami.

On the plus side, Okamoto has more defensive utility. While he’s not likely to be a plus defender at the hot corner, one scout who saw him play several times this year described Okamoto to MLBTR as a serviceable, capable third baseman in the majors. Some clubs will still surely view him as a first baseman, but Okamoto at least seems more capable of playing third. He also strikes out a good bit less, having fanned in only 11.3% of his plate appearances this year. That’s a career-low and well beyond his typical mark, but Okamoto hasn’t punched out at even a 20% clip since 2019.

Be that as it may, there are questions about how well he’ll hit big league pitching. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calls Okamoto a power-over-hit first baseman against major league pitching, noting the slugger’s struggles against fastballs clocked at 94 mph or higher. We’ve seen several stars from both NPB and the KBO struggle to acclimate to MLB velocity but eventually make the adjustment, however (Jung Hoo Lee standing as one recent example).

Scouts who talked to MLBTR about Okamoto feel he’s a second-division regular at the hot corner or first base but more of a part-time bat on a deeper, contending roster. There’s enough raw power here (60-grade) and enough track record that he should still command a multi-year deal. The Angels have no obvious answer at third base. The Mets could have holes at both infield corners if Alonso departs. The Phillies might need a third baseman if they move on from Alec Bohm. A team like the Cubs could view Okamoto as a safety net for Matt Shaw at third base and a potential platoon partner for Michael Busch at first, but it’s unlikely that someone of Okamoto’s legendary status in Japan would sign for a part-time role in the majors.

20. Eugenio Suarez, 3B: three years, $63MM

Tim: Red Sox  / Anthony: Athletics  / Darragh: Reds / Steve: Reds

Teams seeking additional power but unwilling to go to the lengths necessary to sign Schwarber or Alonso have a more budget-friendly option in Suarez. The 34-year-old tied a career-high mark with 49 homers between the D-backs and Mariners in 2025. Suarez struggled down the stretch with Seattle but for more than a calendar year — June 2024 through July 2025 — was one of the game’s elite power hitters.

There’s ample risk with Suarez. He’ll turn 35 next July. He strikes out too much. His defense at the hot corner has dipped in recent seasons and is now below average. Suarez is still playable at third, however, and there just aren’t many free agents who can credibly be projected for 40-plus home runs. Suarez has game-changing power and often rattles off home runs in bunches. When he’s going well, he’s the type of bat that can carry a team.

After signing an extension with the Reds — who originally acquired him from the Tigers in exchange for Alfredo Simon (whoops!) — Suarez is now set to enter free agency for the first time in his career. By virtue of that midseason trade, he can’t receive a qualifying offer. He’ll take elite power, a 49-homer platform and an impeccable clubhouse reputation to the market in search of a multi-year deal.

Three-year deals for players this old aren’t common but aren’t unheard of. Christian Walker and Jose Abreu signed three-year pacts when they were even older. Josh Donaldson signed a four-year deal with the Twins at this age, albeit off a better platform season and with a more decorated overall track record. Suarez and his “good vibes only” mantra should still be popular enough to command at least a two-year deal with a hearty annual value, and if interest is sufficient enough for a third year, he could very well top the $60MM deal Walker secured with the Astros last offseason. We’re of the mind that Suarez will indeed get that third year, particularly since he can’t receive a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.

Suarez’s market may also be influenced by his willingness to play first base, with this year’s six innings marking his only big league experience there.  If Suarez is open to time at first base and DH, his market could include the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Padres, and Pirates.

21. Robert Suarez, RP: three years, $48MM

Tim: Mets  / Anthony: Dodgers  / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Dodgers

Suarez returns to free agency after opting out of the final two years and $16MM on his five-year contract with the Padres. While it was a shock to see a team make a five-year commitment to a reliever who was already 32 years old, Suarez more than lived up to that investment. He’s coming off consecutive seasons with at least 65 innings and a sub-3.00 ERA. He led the National League with 40 saves in 2025 and has an MLB-high 76 saves over the past two seasons.

After posting consecutive league average strikeout rates in 2023-24, Suarez punched out a strong 27.9% of batters faced this past season. He cut his walks to a career-low 5.9% clip and turned in a 2.97 ERA in a career-high 69 2/3 innings. Suarez had a few wobbly performances in a three-week span between the middle of June and early July. He was otherwise lights out at the back of the San Diego bullpen, posting a 2.17 ERA with a near-30% strikeout rate in the second half.

Suarez has given up a little more hard contact as his ground-ball rates have fallen over the past couple years. His strikeout and whiff rates are good but not elite for a back-end arm. It’s not a flawless profile, but Suarez has a pair of 98-99 MPH fastballs and a low-90s changeup that can miss bats. He has proven he’s capable of handling the pressure of pitching in the ninth inning.

Age is the biggest impediment to his free agency. Suarez didn’t begin pitching professionally until he was 24 years old. He spent a few seasons pitching in Japan before making the jump to MLB at 31. He’ll be 35 in March. There hasn’t been a three-year deal for a 35-year-old reliever since Will Harris signed a $24MM guarantee over the 2019-20 offseason. Mariano Rivera is the only mid-late 30s reliever to sign for three years at more than $10MM annually. Suarez has an uphill battle to joining that company, but MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes believes he’ll get there.

The Padres clearly love Suarez, but they seem likely to let him walk after adding Mason Miller to an already stacked bullpen. The Marlins are known to be looking for a late-inning reliever. The Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets, Cubs, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Reds, and Braves are among the other teams that could add a closer in free agency.

Unlike Diaz, Suarez did not receive a qualifying offer, so he enters the market unburdened by draft pick compensation.

22. Shota Imanaga, SP: three years, $45MM

Tim: Angels  / Anthony: Padres  / Darragh: Diamondbacks / Steve: Rangers

After Imanaga’s rookie season in 2024, the notion of the Cubs declining their three-year, $57.75MM option just one year later didn’t seem plausible. Imanaga made the 2024 All-Star team, finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting and finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. He paced the Cubs with 173 1/3 innings, logged a 2.91 ERA, fanned one quarter of his opponents and only issued walks at a tiny 4% clip. His contract looked like a bargain.

A lot has changed in a year, however. Imanaga posted a 2.82 ERA through his first eight starts but did so with strikeout and walk rates that trended in the wrong direction. A hamstring strain sidelined him for about seven weeks. He returned in late June, averaging only 90.7 mph on his heater — down from 91.7 mph a year prior — and rapidly becoming one of MLB’s most homer-prone pitchers. Imanaga tossed exactly 100 innings post-injury. He logged a respectable 4.14 ERA and posted an impeccable 3.1% walk rate … but also allowed 24 home runs — an average of 2.16 round-trippers per nine frames.

By the time the postseason rolled around, Imanaga had clearly lost the trust of Cubs brass. His penchant for serving up home runs and persistent struggles in the first inning led the Cubs to use an opener ahead of him in the Wild Card round. Imanaga got a traditional start in the NLDS against the Brewers but served up four runs in 2 2/3 innings on the strength of two homers. With the Cubs’ season on the line and Imanaga on four days’ rest later that round, Chicago opted for a bullpen game. They lost 3-1 to their division rivals in Milwaukee.

Imanaga’s 11.9% swinging-strike rate and 31.8% opponents’ chase rate were both about 10% better than average in 2025, but they were nowhere close to the prior season’s 14.5% and 36.3%. His diminished ability to generate chases and whiffs led to a below-average 20.6% strikeout rate. Couple that with the lost velocity and huge uptick in home runs allowed, and the Cubs appear ready to move on.

Imanaga declined a $15.25MM player option after the Cubs declined their three-year option. He did so despite the fact that exercising the option would’ve guaranteed him another $15.25MM player option. Effectively, Imanaga opted out of a two-year, $30.5MM guarantee that contained one more opt-out provision. Doing so is a clear signal that his camp is of the belief he can top $30.5MM in free agency.

The Cubs continued this game of chicken by issuing Imanaga the $22.025MM qualifying offer.  This represents a real drag on his market.  Still, Imanaga bet on himself by turning down the two-year option, and may be disinclined to return given the Cubs’ lack of faith in him.

Even with the red flags, Imanaga tossed 144 2/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with a terrific walk rate.  He still has a decent reputation as a pitcher, and was a fan favorite in Chicago.  He can solicit offers and hold off on deciding until November 18th at 3pm, which is the deadline to accept the Cubs’ QO.  While accepting remains plausible, our guess is that Imanaga will find a three-year offer elsewhere.

The Angels, Tigers, Braves, Cardinals, Rangers, D-backs, Padres, Giants, and Nationals could all be on the lookout for affordable innings this winter. Even if Imanaga’s debut campaign in 2024 was his peak, he can be a solid fourth starter, particularly for a team with a pitcher-friendly home park.

23. Jorge Polanco, 2B/3B: three years, $42MM

Tim: Pirates  / Anthony: Mariners  / Darragh: Mariners / Steve: Royals

The Mariners’ original trade for Polanco looked like a swing-and-a-miss. The longtime Twins infielder hit so poorly in his first season as a Mariner in 2024 that the team declined what once looked like a no-brainer club option over the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco underwent knee surgery after the 2024 season, revealing that he’d played through a strained patellar tendon for much of the year.

When the M’s and Polanco parted ways at the beginning of last offseason, it seemed like a one-and-done pairing between the two. The Mariners were on the lookout for bigger fish at multiple infield positions. Polanco needed a rebound, and trying to bounce back at one of the majors’ most pitcher-friendly venues in Seattle didn’t sound appealing. Yet the two parties found their way back to one another. A late deal to re-sign Polanco was originally met with skepticism, but Polanco turned back the clock with a terrific regular season and routinely played the hero as the Mariners’ season pushed all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS.

In 524 plate appearances, Polanco raked at a .265/.326/.495 pace (132 wRC+). His 26 home runs were the second-most of his career, trailing only the fluky 2019 campaign that saw him pop 33 homers in the juiced-ball season. He hit well from both sides of the plate and turned in a 15.6% strikeout rate that stands as the second-lowest of his career in a 162-game season — and represents a precipitous drop from the prior season’s career-worst 29.2% mark.

It’s clear that Polanco wasn’t playing close to 100% in 2024 — but it also seems he wasn’t at full strength for much of 2025, either. The idea when re-signing Polanco was to play him at third base, but he logged just five games there. An oblique injury early in the season didn’t send Polanco to the IL but limited him enough that he was relegated to DH work and was limited against left-handed pitching early on. Polanco spent more time as a DH than an infielder this year, logging 88 games at DH compared to just 287 innings at second base and 43 at the hot corner.

That might not be enough to convince interested teams that he’s viable at third, but Polanco’s bat was so good in 2025 that it doesn’t matter much. Whether he signs as a second baseman, a third baseman, a hybrid option or even as a first baseman/designated hitter, the calling card is his bat. Even with last year’s struggles and an ugly showing in the shortened Covid season, Polanco is a .260/.330/.450 hitter over his past 3,355 plate appearances. That’s 16% better than average, per wRC+. He’s 32, but Polanco clubbed 29 homers in 150 games between the regular season and the playoffs — including two in one game against the aforementioned Skubal during the ALDS.

Polanco should find at least two years, if not three, in free agency. The Mariners, Giants, Tigers, Royals, Yankees, Rangers, Jays, Marlins, Mets and Phillies all make some degree of sense here. Polanco’s market will be bolstered by the Mariners’ decision not to issue a qualifying offer.

24. Chris Bassitt, SP: two years, $38MM

Tim: Braves  / Anthony: Athletics  / Darragh: Braves / Steve: Yankees

Bassitt just wrapped up a three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays. He remained the steady mid-rotation presence that the Jays expected when they signed him. Bassitt topped 30 starts in all three seasons and posted an earned run average between 3.60 and 4.16 in each year. That included 170 1/3 innings of 3.96 ball this past season. He struck out a slightly above-average 22.6% of opponents against a solid 7.1% walk rate.

The veteran right-hander avoided the injured list for almost the entirety of his time in Toronto. His only IL stint as a Blue Jay came in September. He finished the regular season on the shelf with lower back inflammation and was inactive for the Division Series against the Yankees. He returned for the ALCS. He didn’t crack a playoff rotation that included Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber. Bassitt was an incredibly valuable part of the ALCS and World Series pitching staff, though. The Jays plugged him into the bullpen and used him alongside Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland and Seranthony Dominguez in key situations. Bassitt delivered, firing 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out 10.

It’s a nice finish for a pitcher who should again be in demand as he returns to the market. Bassitt turns 37 in February, so he isn’t going to secure another three-year contract. He should be able to secure a two-year deal at a decent annual rate. Bassitt still projects as a rock solid fourth starter who takes the ball every fifth day. A fastball that once sat above 93 MPH now checks in more in the 91-92 range — at least out of the rotation — but it’s good enough stuff to post underlying numbers that align with a 4.00 ERA type pitcher.

The Jays were not able to make Bassitt a qualifying offer because he received one from the Mets when he was previously a free agent. Toronto may try to bring him back, but teams like the Braves, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Astros, Angels, A’s and Giants could all fit.

25. Merrill Kelly, SP: two years, $36MM

Tim: Angels  / Anthony: Diamondbacks  / Darragh: Diamondbacks / Steve: Diamondbacks

Few have had a career arc take a similar shape to that of Kelly, a former Rays eighth-rounder (2010) who never surfaced in the majors before heading overseas to the Korea Baseball Organization. Kelly broke out with the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now called the SSG Landers), starring in their rotation for four seasons before trying his hand at a return to Major League Baseball. The Diamondbacks presented not only an opportunity but a multi-year major league contract — albeit it a bargain-rate $5.5MM over two seasons.

That contract, which contained two additional club option years, proved to be an immense bargain. Kelly pitched 573 innings of 3.96 ERA ball over its four seasons and was extended in April 2022, tacking on additional two years and $18MM in guaranteed money. Kelly pitched well in 2023-24, making it an easy decision for the Snakes to pick up a 2025 club option. He was traded to the Rangers midseason as Arizona took a step back ahead of the trade deadline, and Kelly went on to give Texas another 10 serviceable starts to close out the season. He’s now a prominent free agent for the first time, just a month after his 37th birthday.  With Kelly born about four months before Bassitt, it’s easy to draw a comparison on this market between the two.

Since returning to North American ball, Kelly has a 3.77 ERA, a 22% strikeout rate and a 7.2% walk rate in just over 1,000 innings pitched. That includes a 3.52 earned run average, 22.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in 32 starts this past seasons. Kelly sits just under 92 mph with his four-seamer and has a below-average swinging-strike rate, but the right-hander also offers plus command and a largely durable track record.

There have been some injuries along the way, however. Most notably, Kelly required thoracic outlet surgery in 2020 and missed three months of the 2024 season due to a shoulder strain. He never showed any ill effects from that 2020 TOS procedure, however, and he bounced back from last year’s shoulder strain with one of his best seasons in the majors.

Age will cap Kelly’s contract length. Since 2010, the only three-year deals for pitchers starting at age 37 or later were Rich Hill’s $48MM deal with the Dodgers in 2016 and Max Scherzer’s $130MM deal with the Mets in 2021. Kelly’s walk year and broader track record probably aren’t good enough to make him the recipient of an ultra-rare third year for a pitcher of his age, but he’s a more appealing free agent than Kenta Maeda was when he landed two years and $24MM beginning with his age-36 season.

Kelly spoke highly of his time with the D-backs when he returned to Chase Field as a visitor with the Rangers late this summer. Arizona needs rotation help and will surely try to re-sign him. Perhaps he’ll be amenable to a slight hometown discount, but if not the D-backs, Kelly could help just about any postseason hopeful looking to solidify the middle of its rotation. The Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, Padres, Cubs, Orioles, Braves and plenty of others could all make a bid.

26. Brad Keller, RP: three years, $36MM

Tim: Yankees  / Anthony: Braves  / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Braves

It seems like every offseason features a reliever coming off an out-of-nowhere breakout season. Keller is this winter’s version. The righty had some early-career success as a starter after the Royals selected him in the Rule 5 draft. It wasn’t the most exciting profile, but he rode a lot of ground-balls to decent results between 2018-20. Keller’s numbers tailed off over the next couple seasons, and he finished the ’23 campaign on the injured list with what was initially diagnosed as a shoulder impingement.

It turned out to be thoracic outlet syndrome. Keller underwent surgery over the 2023-24 offseason. He struggled to a 5.44 ERA between the White Sox and Red Sox, leaving him to sign a minor league contract with the Cubs going into 2025. Keller impressed in Spring Training and earned a season-opening bullpen spot. It didn’t take long before he earned Craig Counsell’s trust as arguably his best reliever.

Keller was working in almost exclusively high-leverage spots before the end of May. He wound up pitching 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball over 69 appearances. He recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while only giving up three leads all season. A fastball that had been 93-94 for most of his career was above 97 on average in short stints. Keller punched out 27.2% of opponents while getting ground-balls on more than 56% of balls in play — a top 10 mark among relievers with 50+ frames. He only got better as the season progressed. Keller only gave up one run while striking out 35 hitters across 27 2/3 innings in the second half. He followed up with 5 2/3 frames of one-run ball in the playoffs.

That ensures that Keller will find a multi-year deal this offseason. Keller’s market could expand if some teams want to build him back as a starter, as he was with the White Sox last year. Keller should join the likes of Rafael Montero, Joe Jimenez, Robert Stephenson and Jeff Hoffman as high-end setup arms who command three-year contracts. The Cubs have generally preferred to build their bullpens through short-term deals, so there’s a decent chance they let Keller walk.

27. Lucas Giolito, SP: two years, $32MM

Tim: Orioles  / Anthony: Giants  / Darragh: Rangers / Steve: White Sox

Giolito hit the market after declining his end of a $19MM mutual option with the Red Sox. He’d converted what had been a $14MM club option into a mutual provision by reaching 140 innings this year. That gave him the ability to return to the market, though he does so with more questions than it seemed he’d have six weeks ago.

During his time with the White Sox, Giolito was one of the sport’s most durable pitchers. That wasn’t the case over his two years in Boston. Giolito blew out during Spring Training 2024 and required internal brace surgery that cost him that entire season. He was back this spring but suffered a hamstring strain that kept him from making his team debut until the end of April. Giolito showed signs of rust upon his return, as he gave up 4.78 earned runs per nine over his first six starts.

Things clicked once the calendar flipped to June. Giolito reeled off a 3.03 ERA across 113 innings over his next 20 starts. His underlying marks weren’t as impressive. Giolito struck out just 20% of opponents while issuing walks nearly 10% of the time. Even if he wasn’t a true #2 starter, he averaged nearly six innings per appearance and looked like a capable mid-rotation arm during that stretch.

Giolito projected as the #3 arm in Boston’s playoff rotation. However, as the regular season drew to a close, the Sox announced that Giolito would be inactive for the Wild Card Series because of flexor irritation and a bone issue in his elbow. The Red Sox were eliminated in the first round, but it’s clear that Giolito would’ve missed the entire postseason no matter how far the team advanced. He has reportedly resumed a throwing program and is believed to have a fully intact ulnar collateral ligament. There’s nothing to suggest he won’t be a full go for Spring Training. Still, it’s suboptimal to hit free agency dealing with an elbow-related injury less than two years removed from surgery.

One point in Giolito’s favor is that the Red Sox decided not to issue a qualifying offer.  That choice could represent pessimism about the righty being worth $22.025MM next year, but it could also just be the Red Sox keeping powder dry early in the offseason as they’re expected to pursue a higher-tier rotation addition.

Giolito turned 31 in July. He doesn’t have the down-ballot Cy Young upside he showed earlier in his career when he missed far more bats than he does now. A fully healthy Giolito would provide similar youth and mid-rotation ability to the likes of Luis Severino and Eduardo Rodriguez. We would’ve predicted a three- or even four-year contract had he not had any late-season elbow trouble. We’re now shading down to a two-year deal, perhaps with an opt-out after next season. That’d be a similar contract to the one he signed with the Red Sox in 2023, when he was facing questions about consecutive seasons of middling performance rather than durability concerns. The Astros, A’s, Rangers, Braves, Mets, Padres, Giants, Orioles, and Tigers are among a dozen-plus teams that could check in.

28. Ha-Seong Kim, SS: two years, $30MM

Tim: Braves  / Anthony: Padres  / Darragh: Braves / Steve: Braves

Kim recently declined a $16MM player option for the upcoming season. He didn’t have a great first year in his return from last October’s shoulder surgery, but even with that surgery known to be impacting his readiness for the 2025 season, he still landed two years and $29MM with an opt-out. Given that he’s now healthy and set to enter an offseason market devoid of legitimate shortstop options, he and the Boras Corporation surely feel there’s at least another two-year deal with an opt-out to be had.  In a market devoid of shortstops other than Bichette, we wouldn’t rule out three years for Kim.

Kim’s end-of-season batting line isn’t much to look at. He hit .234/.304/.345 in 191 plate appearances between the Rays, who signed him to that previously mentioned two-year deal, and the Braves, who claimed him off waivers at the end of August. Kim’s bat was nonexistent with Tampa Bay, but he caught fire for most of his run in Atlanta. In his first 19 games with the Braves, Kim slashed .309/.372/.456 with three homers, a double, a 9.1% walk rate and a 15.4% strikeout rate. It’s only 78 plate appearances, but it was encouraging. A 1-for-19 slump to finish out his season tanked his numbers a bit, but there was at least a period of the final month of play where Kim looked completely back to form.

Though Kim has never been a true impact bat in MLB, he was a slightly above-average offensive performer from 2022-24 (.250/.336/.385, 106 wRC+) who made significant contributions on the basepaths and with the glove. Kim has been a plus defender at shortstop, second base and third base since coming to the majors from his native South Korea. As such, some teams might look at him as a utility piece rather than a true one-position starter, but the shortstop class is so barren that he should receive interest as a starter.

Atlanta clearly likes Kim. That they were willing to claim him means they were comfortable paying him $16MM next year, after all. They’ll be in the mix to retain him, but other teams with potential shortstop needs include the Tigers, Pirates, Brewers, and Guardians. The Yankees might look for some infield insurance with Anthony Volpe starting on the IL. The Giants or Royals could make sense if they want to plug Kim in at second base.

29. J.T. Realmuto, C: two years, $30MM

Tim: Phillies  / Anthony: Phillies  / Darragh: Phillies / Steve: Padres

Realmuto showed in 2025 that there’s still plenty left in the tank, but his days as a premium all-around catcher also look to be in the past. His .257/.315/.384 batting line was 6% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but still checked in a bit better than that of the average catcher. He’s still plus when it comes to controlling the run game (29.7% caught-stealing rate), but Realmuto has now registered negative blocking grades (according to Statcast) in consecutive seasons and has seen his once-vaunted framing grades decline sharply.

The market offers little in the way of starting-caliber catchers, which could work to Realmuto’s benefit. Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are arguably the most notable alternatives on the open market. The former has posted nice rate stats in the batter’s box but has primarily operated as a backup. The latter has now had back-to-back poor seasons at the plate.

Teams preferring not to turn to the trade or non-tender market won’t have a more dependable option than Realmuto. He’s caught at least 99 games in every full season since 2015, rarely missing notable time on the injured list. A two-year deal here is likely, as the only recent three-year deal for a catcher aged-35 or older was Yadier Molina’s $60MM pact from way back in 2017. The Phillies want to keep Realmuto, but he’ll likely draw varying levels of interest from the Rangers, Rays, Padres and Guardians, among others.

30. Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: two years, $26MM

Tim: Marlins  / Anthony: Mariners  / Darragh: Marlins / Steve: Marlins

O’Hearn went from DFA fodder in Kansas City to a focal point of the lineup on a contending Baltimore club. The former Royal reinvented himself in orange and black, breaking out with a .277/.343/.445 batting line (121 wRC+) in a bit more than 1400 plate appearances over his three seasons at Camden Yards. Last season’s 14% strikeout rate proved too low to sustain, but this year’s 20% mark is still far better than the 26.8% mark O’Hearn logged in nearly 1,100 turns at the plate with Kansas City.

Some of that could be due to platooning, but O’Hearn’s numbers against fellow lefties have ticked up across the past three seasons. Since landing in Baltimore, he’s posted a .261/.326/.442 line against southpaws. That’s a sample of only 182 plate appearances, as the O’s still tended to platoon him, but O’Hearn has handled the opportunities he’s been given quite nicely. That production isn’t the result of a particularly gaudy BABIP spike; his .322 mark in those spots is right in line with his overall .314 mark dating back to 2023.

O’Hearn totaled new career-high marks in plate appearances (544) and home runs (17) between the Orioles and Padres this past summer. He posted above-average marks from both DRS and OAA at first base but has typically been below-average in the outfield corners. Even with sub-par glovework there, however, O’Hearn has enough outfield experience that clubs could sign him to play a decent bit on the grass. The bat has been good enough to justify that approach.

Since he’s already 32 (33 next July) and has been more of a part-time player than an everyday bat, O’Hearn could find himself capped at two years — though he and his reps will surely push for three. The Padres would surely like to keep him around, but O’Hearn’s relatively limited earning power could put him in the price range for a lot of clubs seeking help at first base and/or in the outfield corners. The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, D-backs, Twins and Rockies all received negligible output from first base in 2025, while the Pirates, Reds, Guardians and O’Hearn’s old friends in Kansas City saw plenty of struggle in the outfield corners.

31. Harrison Bader, OF: two years, $26MM

Tim: Giants  / Anthony: Royals  / Darragh: Guardians / Steve: Angels

Bader is the only true plus defensive center fielder on this year’s free agent market. He’s previously had notable platoon splits but enjoyed the best season of his career against right-handed pitching in 2025, slashing .300/.369/.476. Much of that was due to a .372 BABIP against righties, but Bader also posted improved contact and strikeout rates. He split the 2025 season between left field and center, playing his usual brand of quality defense.

The defensive excellence hasn’t been enough to get him paid in prior offseasons. Bader has signed one-year deals with the Mets ($10.5MM) and Twins ($6.25MM) over the past two winters. He’s coming off a much better all-around showing this year, with a career-best 17 homers and career-best 122 wRC+. Bader hit .277/.347/.449 between Minnesota and Philadelphia this year, including a torrid .305/.361/.463 showing with the Phillies following a deadline trade that sent outfield prospect Hendry Mendez and teenaged righty Geremy Villoria back to Minnesota.

Bader is a plus runner with excellent outfield range and a strong throwing arm. He strikes out too much, doesn’t possess particularly exciting batted-ball metrics and has, at best, average power. A lot his offensive contributions are going to vary year to year based on his fortune on balls in play (or lack thereof). This year’s .359 BABIP seems ripe for regression, despite some modest gains in hard-hit rate.

Interested clubs can probably expect average offense, good speed and strong defense from Bader. For a 31-year-old (32 in June) who’s entering a bleak market for center fielders, that should be enough to get him a multi-year deal this time around. Glove-first outfielders with volatile offensive performances typically don’t break the bank in free agency — just ask Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kevin Kiermaier. But Bader has likely shown enough to get a multi-year contract — likely a two-year deal with an outside chance of three. The Phillies could try to keep him, and clubs like the Guardians, Royals, Mets, D-backs, and Tigers got little to no production out of center field in 2025.

32. Raisel Iglesias, RP: two years, $26MM

Tim: Braves  / Anthony: Orioles  / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Braves

Iglesias turns 36 in February, so age isn’t on his side, but his track record is excellent. Early on in the 2025 season, it looked like the former All-Star was running out of gas. He was shredded for a 6.75 ERA through his first 24 innings. That awful slump stretched into early June, but Iglesias was still throwing hard, missing bats and limiting walks along the way — he was just far too homer-prone.

That’s never been a big issue for him before and it wasn’t a problem at all over the season’s final four months. From June 9 through season’s end, Iglesias was utterly dominant. He totaled 43 1/3 innings with a 1.25 ERA, fanned 30.4% of his opponents and only walked 6.3% of his opponents. His .194 BABIP and 84% strand rate in that time underscore the manner in which that Terminator-esque stretch can’t be fully sustained, but that K-BB profile and a massive 15.4% swinging-strike rate showed there’s plenty left in the tank.

Two-year deals beginning with a reliever’s age-36 season are rare, but there’s a chance Iglesias’ dominant finish and outstanding track record (2.71 ERA, 253 saves, 29.8 K%, 6.8 BB% since 2016) get him there. The Braves are probably hoping to keep him, but every contending club is on the lookout for big arms at the back of the ’pen each offseason.

33. Nick Martinez, SP/RP: two years, $25MM

Tim: Padres  / Anthony: Guardians / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Mets

Martinez has spent the past four years as baseball’s ultimate swingman. He’s capable of decent results as a back-end starter or as a high-leverage reliever. That continued in 2025 with the Reds. Overall, he gave the Reds 165 2/3 innings with a 4.45 ERA. That included a 4.72 ERA in 26 starts and a 2.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances.

There are some worrying trends. Martinez is now 35 years old. His strikeout has been dropping, going from 23% in 2023 to 20.4% last year and 17% this year. However, his walk rate has been low and he continues to be very good at limiting hard contact. He also provides durability, having not been on the injured list since he came back to North American ball going into the 2022 season.

Teams clearly value his reliability and flexibility. When he was first coming back from his stint in Japan four years ago, the Padres gave him a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with opt-outs. He opted out one-year later and secured a fresh three-year, $26MM deal. That led to a two-year, $26MM deal with the Reds. The first year in Cincinnati went so well, with a 3.10 ERA in 142 1/3 innings, that he opted out and the Reds gave him a $21.05MM qualifying offer.

He shouldn’t have that kind of earning power now, at least in terms of average annual value. It was a pretty surprising QO in the first place and his results in 2025 weren’t as strong as the year prior. His ERA crept up, his strikeout rate fell and he’s a year older. Still, his ability to pitch either as a starter or reliever or both makes him a fit on just about any club. That may make him popular enough to secure a nice two-year deal for himself.

34. Luis Arraez, 1B: two years, $24MM

Tim: Rangers  / Anthony: Rangers  / Darragh: Diamondbacks / Steve: Twins

Arraez’s nickname is “la regadera” or, “the sprinkler,” for the manner in which he sprinkles hits around the diamond. Entering this offseason, however, it might change to the “litmus test.” Arraez is a throwback in nearly every sense of the word — a three-time batting champ with virtually no power who rarely walks but strikes out even less often. He’s baseball’s premier contact bat, having fanned in only 3.1% of his plate appearances this past season.

In today’s era of high velocity, spin rate, induced vertical break, pitch design, proprietary pitch labs and advance scouting, that strikeout rate is genuinely remarkable. It’s also the lone true standout in Arraez’s skill set. The 28-year-old (29 next April) has never posted a batting average lower than this past season’s .292. He’s also begun to swing more frequently in recent years, at the expense of his once above-average walk rate. Arraez has drawn a free pass in just 4.7% of his plate appearances dating back to 2023, and he’s homered just 22 times in nearly 2000 plate appearances along the way.

Arraez’s career ISO (slugging minus batting average) is just .096. That’s the lowest among the 81 hitters who’ve tallied 3,000 plate appearances in that time and the fourth-lowest among the 197 hitters with 2000-plus plate appearances (trailing Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw and Isiah Kiner-Falefa). Arraez is a singles machine, but he has almost no power and needs to bat well over .300 to post a truly plus on-base percentage.

If Arraez were a slick-fielding shortstop or a plus defensive center fielder, teams probably wouldn’t mind the singles-only approach at the plate. He’s a .303/.337/.392 hitter over the past two seasons, after all. But Arraez has had knee problems dating back to his minor league days and was always something of a player without a true defensive home. He worked primarily at second base early in his big league career but has mainly played first base in recent years. Since 2024, Arraez has played only 421 innings at second base and been dinged for -5 DRS and -9 OAA. In 1526 innings at first base, he’s been a scratch defender per DRS but -12 per OAA.

Traditionalists have long lamented the manner in which modern front offices have cast aside older stats like batting average, runs batted in and pitcher wins/losses in evaluating players. The increased focus on launch angle, velocity and hitting for power has made clubs, players and many fans more accepting of strikeout totals that would’ve seemed unthinkable a few decades ago.

Arraez, in many ways, will be a litmus test for how much teams still value batting average. It’s the only big arrow he has in his quiver, but it’s a prominent one that is more or less without rival throughout the game. Will that prompt a team to eschew modern thinking and splurge for a long-term deal, or will today’s front offices see a singles-hitting first baseman with no defensive/baserunning value? Arraez has been worth just 2.3 wins above replacement since 2024, per Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs pegs him at a flat 2.0 WAR.

We’re predicting a modest multi-year deal that’ll feel eminently reasonable to a large portion of fans and readers but doing so under the assumption that many teams will prefer Arraez on a one-year deal, at most. Unless a team that prioritizes contact hitters (e.g. Royals) is willing to put Arraez at second base, he probably needs a team with a mostly open first base/DH mix. That could mean the Red Sox, White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Rockies or Nationals. Unsurprisingly, Arraez hits the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

35. Zack Littell, SP: two years, $24MM

Tim: Nationals  / Anthony: Angels  / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Angels

Littell spent the early part of his career working mostly in middle relief. He had a nice 2021 season with the Giants but never really earned their trust and was cut loose after the ’22 campaign. Littell had a brief stint in Boston before being claimed off waivers by the Rays in May 2023. He became the latest Tampa Bay pitching development success story. The Rays built him up as a starting pitcher in the second half that year. He has spent the past two seasons as a steady source of back-of-the-rotation innings.

The righty posted a 3.63 ERA over 29 appearances in 2024. He made 32 starts this past season divided between the Rays and Reds, who acquired him at the trade deadline. Littell tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings while allowing 3.81 earned runs per nine. He owns a 3.73 ERA in 61 starts over the past two seasons. The Reds turned to him as their Game 2 playoff starter, but the Dodgers tagged him for three runs across 3 1/3 frames in what proved to be an elimination game.

Aside from the durability, Littell’s calling card is his elite control. He has the sixth-lowest walk rate (4.5%) among pitchers with 200+ innings over the past two seasons. Littell is going to attack the strike zone but has fringe stuff. His four-seam and sinker each land in the 91-92 MPH range, leading him to rely equally as often on his slider and splitter. He doesn’t miss many bats and will give up a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more longballs than Littell’s 36 this year.

It’s not the most exciting profile, but Littell should command a multi-year deal from a team that wants stable bulk innings from the fourth or fifth rotation spot. If the Reds don’t bring him back, teams like the Angels, A’s, and Giants could show interest. He turned 30 last month and has an outside shot at pulling a three-year contract similar to the $39-40MM deals signed by Tyler Anderson and Zach Eflin. A two-year deal that guarantees between $20MM and $30MM might be the safer bet.

36. Ryan Helsley, RP: two years, $24MM

Tim: Angels  / Anthony: Marlins  / Darragh: Marlins / Steve: Diamondbacks

Helsley had a multi-year run as one of the most formidable late-inning weapons in the game. From 2022-24, he pitched 167 2/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 82 saves, a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate out of the Cardinals’ bullpen. He seemed like one of the most obvious trade candidates in baseball last offseason as St. Louis took a step back and began focusing on getting opportunities for younger players, but they made the decision to hang onto Helsley and hope for better offers at the deadline.

Had the right-hander enjoyed a typical first half, that might have panned out — demand for bullpen help is always at its peak in July, and the supply is more limited than in the offseason — but Helsley was more “very good” than elite. His strikeout rate dipped to 26.1%. His fastball, while still a blistering 99.3 mph on average, was down about a half mile per hour from its peak. Opponents were hitting him considerably harder than in prior seasons. The Mets still happily traded for the flamethrowing righty, but that’s when the wheels came off.

Helsley was blasted for a 7.20 ERA in 22 innings with the Mets. He gave up as many homers in two months with the Mets (four) as he did in two full years with the Cards from 2023-24. There’s no doubt that Helsley had some rotten luck in Queens. A .362 BABIP and 52.6% strand rate both seem likely to regress in positive fashion. Helsley himself wondered about whether he might be tipping pitches. Whatever the reason for his struggles as a Met, Helsley was quickly demoted to a lower-leverage role due to his alarming struggles.

The poor showing in New York led to a 4.50 ERA overall on his season. Helsley still averages better than 99 mph, but his strikeout rate has dipped in three consecutive seasons, falling from 39.3% back in 2022 to “just” 25% in 2025. This year’s 14.9% swinging-strike rate, while still excellent, is a far cry from the 17.4% mark he posted from 2022-24.

Another team might be willing to look past the faceplant with the Mets and bet on the velocity, swinging-strike rate and track record. A multi-year deal can’t be ruled out; we’re only three years removed from Taylor Rogers landing three years and $33MM on the back of a 4.76 ERA due largely to his track record and bat-missing ability. Not many relievers average 99 mph, and even fewer can do so with only slightly below-average command. Helsley’s huge swinging-strike rate creates some optimism for a rebound in strikeout rate, too. There are various paths he could take. We’re betting on two years with an opt-out, though Helsley could also go for a straight one-year or even try to max out for three.

37. Gleyber Torres, 2B: one year, $22.025MM

Tim: Tigers  / Anthony: Tigers  / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Tigers

Torres looked like a potential superstar with the Yankees early in his career. The former top prospect belted 38 homers in 2019 while splitting time between the two middle infield spots in the Bronx. He wasn’t a good defender, but the offensive ceiling was tantalizing.

Torres’ bat declined swiftly over the next five seasons, however. He was still a comfortably above-average hitter (.261/.332/.411, 110 wRC+), but that’s a far cry from flirting with 40 homers in what we now know as the juiced-ball season in 2019. That’s especially true given the manner in which he’s slid down the defensive spectrum. Gone are Torres’ days as a shortstop; he’s firmly a second baseman now — and one that hasn’t sounded all that keen on moving to other positions.

In 2024, Torres’ big finish to the season wasn’t enough to get him a lengthy multi-year deal in free agency. He signed with the Tigers for a year and $15MM and effectively had the inverse of his ’24 season: terrific start, middling finish. Following the season, the Tigers revealed that Torres had played through a sports hernia for several months and would undergo offseason surgery. He’s expected to be ready for spring training. That certainly helps to explain the brutal finish. Torres was the starting second baseman for the American League All-Star team in 2025 but floundered with a .223/.320/.339 slash following the break.

Torres now heads back into free agency with a fair bit working against him.  The Tigers made him a qualifying offer, which came as a bit of a surprise.  Several of his potential suitors, such as the Royals, would have to surrender their third-highest draft pick.  CBT payors, on the other hand, would have to forfeit their second and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM in international bonus pool money.  The QO could be a real market-killer for Torres in and of itself.

Plus, the market hasn’t compensated pure second basemen all that well over the past decade plus, and Torres is trying to change that while coming off a brutal finish and offseason surgery. On the plus side, he’ll play all of next season at age 29, and as deep into the season as the All-Star break he was hitting .281/.387/.425.

Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching. Torres is around league-average against righties and a good bat versus lefties. He walked at a career-high 13.5% in 2025 and struck out in just 16.1% of his plate appearances. He’s a hit-over-power bat at a defensive position MLB front offices don’t value all that highly, and his glove at the keystone grades out poorly.

Any hope Torres might’ve had earlier in his career of eventually securing a mammoth contract has largely evaporated. He’s the type of solid, non-star regular that has been negatively affected as the open market has slowly squeezed out MLB’s middle class of free agents over the past decade.  We feel his best choice is to accept the $22.025MM QO, even with the looming lockout.  He’ll turn 30 shortly after it begins.

If Torres chooses to decline the QO and hit the market,  there are obvious fits with the Giants, Royals, Jays (depending what happens with Bichette), A’s and Angels, among others.

38. Justin Verlander, SP: one year, $22MM

Tim: Astros  / Anthony: Yankees  / Darragh: Giants / Steve: Astros

Verlander will turn 43 in February, but the future Hall of Famer has no plans to call it quits. Coming off yet another solid season at age 42, it’s easy to understand why. Though poor support from his lineup and bullpen left the three-time Cy Young winner with just a 4-11 record on the season, everything else in Verlander’s profile still has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He pitched 152 innings with a 3.85 ERA, a 20.7% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a 34.5% ground-ball rate. Verlander managed hard contact better than the average pitcher, averaged 93.9 mph on his heater and posted an 11% swinging-strike rate that’s exactly league-average.

The disappointing four wins pushed Verlander’s career total to 266, tied for 37th all-time.  Prior to the season, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that Verlander was “driven to become baseball’s first 300-game winner since Randy Johnson in 2009, and only the 25th in baseball history.”  It could take three or four more healthy seasons to get there, but one shouldn’t doubt the future Hall of Famer.

Though he’s not the dominant ace he once was, Verlander looked fantastic down the stretch with a 2.60 ERA and 70-to-24 K/BB ratio over his final 72 2/3 innings (22.8 K%, 7.8 BB%). He averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start in that stretch of 13 appearances and about 5 1/3 innings per start overall in 2025.

The Giants signed Verlander to a one-year, $15MM contract last winter when he was coming off an awful 5.48 ERA in an injury-shortened season that saw him make just 17 starts. He’s a year older now but has also shown himself to be capable in a way that wasn’t entirely certain this time last year. He’s almost certainly not going to command a two-year contract at his age, but his 2025 season should earn him a raise over last year’s salary. A one-year deal in the range of this year’s qualifying offer value seems fitting.

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has already voiced interest in a Verlander reunion, but he’ll probably be on the radar of most contending clubs. Signing with a winning club is surely a priority for a 43-year-old hoping to win a third World Series ring and push as close to 300 career wins as possible. He’s currently 34 shy but has previously spoken of pitching until he’s 45. The Giants, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Cubs and Phillies all make sense — and there’s a pretty clear fit and need at his old stomping grounds back in Detroit’s Comerica Park, too.

39. Cody Ponce, SP: two years, $22MM

Tim: White Sox  / Anthony: Cardinals  / Darragh: Brewers / Steve: Giants

Probably a surprise entrant on the list for many readers, Ponce is a relative unknown to the general MLB fan base but is firmly on the radar of big league scouts. The former Brewers second-rounder pitched briefly in the majors with the Pirates from 2020-21 but was roughed up for a 5.86 ERA in 55 1/3 MLB frames.

Ponce has spent the past four seasons pitching in Asia, spending the 2022-24 campaigns in Japan before pitching for the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2025. The right-hander posted strong numbers with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2022-23, struggled with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2024, and broke out with one of the most dominant pitching performances in KBO history this past season.

Ponce, 32 next April, logged 180 2/3 innings with a 1.89 ERA out of the Hanwha rotation in 2025. He fanned an incredible 36.2% of his opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. The huge 6’6″, 255-pound righty piled up 252 strikeouts overall — shattering the previous record of 225. (The KBO plays a 144-game season, as compared to MLB’s 162-game slate, it should be noted.) He also set the KBO’s single-game strikeout record when he set down 18 batters on strikes versus the SSG Landers back in May.

Ponce sat 93.2 mph with his four-seamer during his MLB days, but he’s added velocity and now sits around 95-96, occasionally climbing as high as 98 mph. He pairs the improved heater with a cutter, changeup and curveball, the latter two of which both miss bats at an above-average level.

The breakout showing for Ponce has some parallels to that of Erick Fedde a few years ago, though Ponce’s prior NPB success in 2022-23 is something that Fedde didn’t have on his track record. Scouts who spoke to MLBTR opined that Fedde had better command but Ponce offers more upside and much better weapons to miss bats in the majors. He’ll be a year older than Fedde was when he made his MLB return, but we’re betting that Ponce can still top Fedde’s overall guarantee, and a third year might not be entirely out of the question.

40. Kyle Finnegan, RP: two years, $20MM

Tim: Tigers  / Anthony: Yankees  / Darragh: Diamondbacks / Steve: Tigers

Non-tendered by the Nats after a brutal finish to his 2024 season, Finnegan returned on a one-year, $6MM deal (with deferrals) after finding a frosty market in free agency. He bounced back with a solid first four months in D.C., but it was a trade to the Tigers that really elevated him. New coaching and a much heavier slate of data tailored to his strengths and weaknesses coaxed a new level of performance out of Finnegan. He’s always thrown hard but never missed bats like one might expect from someone sitting 97 mph with his heater.

The Tigers had Finnegan throw his slider at career-high rates and slightly raised the horizontal release point on both his four-seamer and splitter. He rattled off 18 innings with a 1.50 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. Finnegan didn’t miss many bats in the postseason but was clearly one of A.J. Hinch’s most trusted relievers both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

Finnegan has been good for a mid-3.00s ERA every season dating back to 2021, but fielding-independent metrics have never fully bought into the skill set. Other clubs around the league perhaps agreed for awhile; he wasn’t traded at the 2023 or 2024 deadlines even with the Nats rebuilding. This Tigers run has the makings of something more enticing, however, and it could lead to the first multi-year deal of the righty’s career. Finnegan will pitch next season at 34, so he’s unlikely to command more than two years, but he should do a lot better than a deferred $6MM this time around.

41. Luke Weaver, RP: two years, $18MM

Tim: Diamondbacks  / Anthony: Mariners  / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Cubs

Weaver has spent most of his career as an inconsistent back-end starting pitcher. He was talented enough to be selected in the first round and headline the Diamondbacks’ trade return for Paul Goldschmidt, but he held a 5.14 career ERA between six teams by the end of the 2023 season. His fortunes turned when the Yankees moved him to the bullpen after a late-season waiver claim that year.

The righty fired 84 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while striking out 31% of opponents in 2024. He was Aaron Boone’s most trusted late-game arm by their run to the World Series. The Yankees acquired Devin Williams last offseason to keep Weaver in a setup role. He pitched very well over the first two months and reclaimed the ninth inning with Williams’ early-season struggles. Weaver had allowed just three runs in 25 2/3 innings when a left hamstring strain sent him to the injured list at the beginning of June.

While he made a quicker than expected recovery from that injury, he was nowhere near as effective after he returned. Weaver allowed a 5.31 ERA over his final 40 appearances. His velocity was unchanged, and he maintained an impressive strikeout and walk profile. The issue was his home run rate, which spiked to nearly two longballs per nine innings over the season’s final few months. He didn’t do himself any favors in this year’s playoffs either, as he allowed six or seven batters to reach over three appearances.

It was a rocky finish to an overall productive two-year run in the Bronx. Weaver owns a 3.21 ERA with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk percentage over the past two seasons. The home run spike is a concern, especially since the longball was his biggest issue as a starter. There are some parallels to former teammate Clay Holmes, who also had an uneven walk year after a generally strong career in pinstripes. The 32-year-old Holmes nevertheless commanded a solid three-year, $38MM with an opt-out to work as a starting pitcher with the Mets.

Weaver, also 32,  told The New York Post in September that he’s open to a similar opportunity. Weaver didn’t say he’d only entertain signing with a team that’d let him start, but he could provide a similar flexibility as Jeff Hoffman did a year ago. He’d hardly be the first pitcher to return as a better starting pitcher after an intervening bullpen stint. Weaver has solid command and a fastball-changeup mix that mitigates the platoon concerns he might face navigating a lineup multiple times. The bigger issue may be developing a better breaking pitch than the cutter he used less than 10% of the time this year. Though we’ve landed on a two-year deal for Weaver, we wouldn’t be shocked by a three-year pact of the Hoffman/Holmes variety.

42. Tyler Rogers, RP: two years, $18MM

Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Tigers  / Darragh: Orioles / Steve: Mets

Rogers is one of the most unique players in the game today, despite being the twin of lefty Taylor Rogers. Tyler’s fastballs average in the low-to-mid-80s but from a submariner delivery that’s hard to pick up. He’s very durable, having never gone on the big league injured list, which has allowed him to toss at least 70 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over those five seasons, he has a 2.71 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate isn’t impressive but his 4.4% walk rate is tiny and his 56.3% ground ball rate is huge. He’s one of the best in the league at staying off barrels and limiting hard contact.

Teams generally prefer to have power pitchers in their setup roles but Rogers appears to be a special case. He reached 30 holds in four of the last five seasons. The Mets made him a key deadline pickup, sending Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell and Jose Butto to the Giants. The Mets then had him in a high leverage role down the stretch. That’s partly due to the struggles of Ryan Helsley and others but Rogers also held his own with a 2.30 ERA for the Mets.

It’s one of the harder markets to predict. Recently, pitchers with good results but poor velocity haven’t found strong markets. Phil Maton is the most glaring example. He always puts up good numbers but barely touches 90 mph. His past two free agent trips have resulted in one-year deals worth a combined $8.5MM. Rogers may be an exception because he is so exceptionally durable and he provides a bullpen with a unique look that no one else can provide.

43. Seranthony Dominguez, RP: two years, $18MM

Tim: Cubs  / Anthony: Braves  / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Athletics

Dominguez, 31 next month, throws hard and misses bats in bunches. He also walks far too many hitters. It’s a fairly typical late-inning profile — one that’s continually landed him in medium to high-leverage spots on contending clubs throughout his career. Dominguez split the 2025 season between the Orioles and Blue Jays, tossing a career-high 62 2/3 innings with a 3.16 ERA, a hefty 30.3% strikeout rate and a similarly hefty 13.8% walk rate.

Dating back to his 2022 return from Tommy John surgery, Dominguez has pitched 222 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average, 24 saves, 55 holds, a 27% strikeout rate and a 10.7% walk rate. He’s averaged 97.6 mph on his four-seamer and 98.1 mph on his sinker in that time — including respective marks of 97.6 mph and 97.8  mph in 2025. His 13% swinging-strike rate (13.7% in 2025) is comfortably above league-average and supports the idea that Dominguez can continue piling up strikeouts at premium levels. Command is an obvious flaw, but Dominguez helps offset his glut of free passes by consistently inducing weak contact; opponents have averaged only 86.6 mph off the bat against him with a paltry 33.6% hard-hit rate dating back to 2023.

A three-year deal probably isn’t out of the question, but setup arms of this type frequently get two-year contracts paying them in the range of $8-10MM per season. That’s the prediction here for Dominguez, who should draw looks as a setup man for any bullpen-needy club with a bit of cash to spend and might even garner some interest as a closing option on some second-division teams.

44. Pete Fairbanks, RP: two years, $18MM

Tim: Marlins  / Anthony: Cubs  / Darragh: Blue Jays / Steve: Marlins

Fairbanks, 32 next month, was swiped by the Rays from the Rangers in a July 2019 trade.  The 6’6″ righty found his footing in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, striking out a third of regular season batters faced.  He pitched in nine postseason games that year, surrendering three home runs in 12 1/3 innings as the Rays lost to the Dodgers in the World Series.

By the time Fairbanks reached the Majors, he’d already undergone Tommy John surgery twice.  In April of 2021, Fairbanks suffered a rotation cuff strain that knocked him out for a month.  He returned to the IL in late July that year with shoulder inflammation, missing another month.

Fairbanks began the following season on the IL with a torn lat muscle, making his season debut in mid-July.  The Rays were tantalized by Fairbanks’ 99.2 mile per hour fastball and ridiculous 43.7% strikeout rate in 2022, and saw fit to sign him to a three-year, $12MM contract extension in January 2023 despite his growing injury history.

The big righty experienced numbness from Raynaud’s Syndrome in 2023, but landed on the IL for forearm inflammation in May of that year.  Fairbanks hit the IL again later that year with hip inflammation.  Both IL stints were brief, and Fairbanks picked up 25 saves on the season.

Fairbanks next went on the IL in April 2024 with a nerve issue, and then again in August with a lat strain that ended his season.

This year things changed: Fairbanks put together his first IL-free season since 2020.  He set career-highs with 60 1/3 innings and 27 saves.  However, since 2024, Fairbanks’ strikeout rate has slipped to 24%, just a hair above league average and well below his heyday.  His velocity now sits in the 97 range.

The trade-happy Rays never ending up moving Fairbanks, and they chose a $1MM buyout over his $11MM club option after his healthiest season.  The implication is that no team saw fit to pay Fairbanks that salary in 2026.  Still, he remains a hard-throwing, effective reliever, having posted a 2.83 ERA on the season.  A two-year deal seems par for the course, unless Fairbanks’ health history scares off suitors.

45. Gregory Soto, RP: two years, $16MM

Tim: Blue Jays  / Anthony: Blue Jays  / Darragh: Mets / Steve: Athletics

Soto is one of the game’s hardest-throwing lefties, but he doesn’t quite generate the results one might expect for someone who routinely sits 97-98 mph with his sinker and four-seamer. He’s a perennially serviceable reliever, but while Soto’s sinker has well above-average movement, his slider doesn’t bite as much as the standard breaking ball in the league and his command of all of his pitches is lacking.

The result is a pitcher who feels like he’s a tweak or two from being dominant but has never quite gotten there. Soto split the 2025 season between the Orioles and Mets, working to a combined 4.18 ERA in 60 1/3 innings — his third straight season with an ERA over 4.00. He also fanned 25.1% of his opponents, however, and turned in a career-best 8.6% walk rate. That’s more or less in line with league average, so it’s not a great mark, but Soto entered the ’25 campaign with a career 12% walk rate (11.1% in ’24, 8.8% in ’23). Then again, he also plunked a career-high 11 batters and tossed 10 wild pitches. This is not a pitcher with pristine (or even average) command.

Still, Soto sits upper-90s with two fastballs, piles up grounders and has an above-average strikeout rate every year. He’s the only lefty reliever to crack this list.  Soto will pitch all of next season at 31. There’s a tinge of upside here, and if the “downside” is something in line with his 3.96 ERA over the past 297 2/3 innings of his big league career, that’s not a bad floor. Soto’s power arm, coupled with a pretty bleak class of left-handed relievers this winter, seems like it could get him to multiple years — but probably not a three-year deal.

46. Emilio Pagan, RP: two years, $16MM

Tim: Reds  / Anthony: Diamondbacks  / Darragh: Reds / Steve: Reds

Pagán has been in the big leagues for years with a pretty consistent profile. His strikeout and walk rates are good but he gives up too many home runs. Despite the flaws, he was a free agent two years ago and secured a two-year, $16MM guarantee with an opt-out.

That deal was with the Reds, a club with one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the majors. Predictably, the first year didn’t go well. Pagán missed a couple of months with a lat strain and posted a 4.50 ERA. He decided not to trigger his opt out, staying in Cincinnati for 2025.

Surprisingly, that worked out. Pagán logged 68 2/3 innings this year with a 2.88 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He seemingly had a bit of help from a .200 batting average on balls in play and 76.5% strand rate. Regardless, his 3.72 FIP and 3.18 SIERA suggest he would have done okay even with less luck from the baseball gods. He took over the closer’s role and racked up 32 saves.

The under-the-hood numbers will give clubs some pause but Pagán had enough interest to get a nice multi-year deal the last time he was out there. He’s obviously older now but is perhaps heading back to the market with some nice juice after some success in the ninth inning.

47. Tyler Mahle, SP: one year, $15MM

Tim: Athletics  / Anthony: Cubs  / Darragh: Astros / Steve: Diamondbacks

Mahle has some good work on his major league track record but he goes into 2026 as a question mark. Tommy John surgery limited him to just five starts in 2023 and three in 2024. He also dealt with shoulder issues in both 2022 and 2024. Those shoulder issues returned in 2025, as a rotator cuff strain put him on the IL for about three months from the middle of June until September.

Around the shoulder injury, he did make 16 starts with a 2.18 ERA, though that number doesn’t tell the whole story. He averaged 92 mph on his fastball, down two ticks from 2021. He was at 91.6 mph and 91.2 mph in his final two starts after coming off the IL. His 19.1% strikeout rate on the year was subpar and well below his previous peak. His strikeout rate was between 25% and 30% from 2020 to 2023. He benefited from a .260 BABIP and an 84.6% strand rate. His 4.62 SIERA was more than double his ERA.

The ongoing health problems and the diminished stuff may limit Mahle to one-year deals. However, even guys in this situation can get decent paydays. Last winter, Max Scherzer got $15.5MM coming off an injury-marred 2024. Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton all got $15MM on one-year deals. Mahle is younger than all of those guys but it’s been a few years since he’s been both healthy and effective for an extended stretch of time.

48. Max Scherzer, SP: one year, $15MM

Tim: Giants  / Anthony: Blue Jays  / Darragh: Guardians / Steve: Tigers

Scherzer signed a one-year, $15.5MM contract with the Blue Jays last offseason. He had been limited to nine starts with the Rangers the year prior. Scherzer had missed the first half rehabbing from back surgery and battled late-season shoulder fatigue. The health concerns continued early in his Jays’ tenure. The 41-year-old went on the injured list after his first start with what the team called thumb inflammation on his throwing hand. Scherzer explained that he’d been dealing with thumb discomfort going back to the ’23 season — which he said was partially responsible for the shoulder problems he’d faced in 2023-24.

The Jays played things cautiously so as not to jeopardize his shoulder or elbow health. Scherzer was sidelined well into June. He stayed healthy the rest of the way and made 16 starts, albeit with mixed results. Scherzer allowed a career-worst 5.19 earned runs per nine across 85 innings. His 22.9% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk percentage were solid enough, but he gave up almost two home runs for every nine innings pitched. The longball has become increasingly problematic as his stuff has dipped late in his career. Scherzer still has solid velocity, averaging 93.6 MPH on his four-seam fastball, but it’s not the mid-90s juice that he had at his peak.

This is obviously no longer peak Max Scherzer, but he showed he has something left in the tank when the lights were brightest. The Jays held him out of the Division Series because they felt he matched up poorly with the Yankees. They penciled him back into the rotation for the ALCS and the World Series. Despite a middling strikeout-to-walk ratio, Scherzer gutted out 14 1/3 innings of six-run ball over three starts. He got the win in ALCS Game 4 and turned over a lead to the Toronto bullpen in both World Series outings, though the Jays went on to lose each game (including Game 7) in extra innings.

Scherzer will be limited to one-year deals for the rest of his career. We’re predicting a similar contract to last winter’s that would reflect his Hall of Fame track record, ample postseason experience, and the general high cost of free agent starting pitching. Scherzer certainly isn’t signing with a rebuilding team at this stage of his career. Any contender could take a flier if he doesn’t return to Toronto.

49. Victor Caratini, C: two years, $14MM

Tim: Rangers  / Anthony: Rays  / Darragh: Rays / Steve: Rays

The switch-hitting Caratini has spent most of his career as a backup, but he logged a career-high 386 plate appearances in 2025, popped a career-best 12 homers and turned in his second straight season of above-average offense. Dating back to Opening Day 2024, Caratini is a .263/.329/.406 hitter (108 wRC+) with 20 homers in 660 turns at the plate. His 7% walk rate is a bit below average, but his 17.9% strikeout rate is also lower than league average. He was a better hitter from the left side of  the plate early in his career, but strong numbers as a right-handed hitter in the past two seasons have pulled his career platoon splits to about even.

Defensively, Caratini regularly draws good grades from Statcast for his ability to block balls in the dirt. His framing and throwing aren’t as consistent. He struggled to uncharacteristic levels at controlling the run game in ’25, throwing out only 10.9% of thieves despite entering the season with a caught-stealing rate nearly twice as high. His framing marks were rough early in his career, strong from 2022-24, and down a bit this year. In general, it seems fair to cast Caratini as a solid blocker and framer whose throwing is a bit suspect. For a catcher with an above-average bat, that’s a reasonable trade-off.

Caratini will likely have interest from contending clubs who are set at catcher but hoping to bring him aboard as an overqualified backup. However, it’s a thin market for catching overall, and plenty of teams will be able to offer half of a 50-50 timeshare or perhaps even a larger workload as a more traditional starting catcher. Astros GM Dana Brown has said he “definitely” has interest in keeping Caratini, but he’ll have competition from some combination of the Rays, Rangers, Marlins, Rockies, Padres, Giants and Nationals. The Phillies would make sense, too, if Realmuto signs somewhere other than Philly, and the Twins could be a speculative fit if they trade Ryan Jeffers.

Last time around, Caratini commanded a two-year deal despite coming off a lackluster season at the plate. He’s older now but should still land at least another two years, perhaps at a slightly higher annual rate. A three-year deal is possible, but Christian Vazquez is the only free agent catcher in the past decade to land three years starting at age 32 or later.

50. Willi Castro, INF/OF: two years, $14MM

Tim: Athletics  / Anthony: Brewers  / Darragh: Padres / Steve: Padres

The switch-hitting Castro had two and a half nice seasons in Minnesota after being non-tendered by the Tigers and scooped up by the division-rival Twins on a minor league deal. In 368 games with the Twins, Castro hit .250/.335/.398 while playing every position other than first base and catcher. He was a bit better than average from both sides of the plate, swiped 56 bags and walked in about 8% of his plate appearances with a strikeout rate only a touch higher than average. Castro isn’t a standout defender anywhere, but he’s the ideal jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none to drop onto a contender’s bench.

At least, that’s what it seemed like heading into the deadline. The Cubs picked up Castro and seemingly planned to play him in the same heavily used utility role he’d filled in Minneapolis, but Castro never got going at Wrigley. He struggled so much so early that he only wound up playing in 34 games and taking 110 plate appearances with his new team. The Cubs carried him on their playoff roster but didn’t give him a postseason plate appearance.

It was an awful finish to the season, but it’s still only 110 plate appearances. He had nearly 14 times that many in Minnesota, proving along the way that he can be a valuable commodity. That’s not to say that Castro’s poor Cubs tenure won’t impact his free agent market. It surely will, but perhaps not to the extent one might think. A big performance post-trade might’ve put the 28-year-old Castro (29 in April) in line for a three-year contract. That no longer feels likely, but a two-year deal to bolster a contender’s bench and/or to take a significant portion of a second base timeshare could still be in the cards.

Honorable Mentions:

• Miguel Andujar
• Shawn Armstrong
• Josh Bell
• Walker Buehler
• Griffin Canning
• Patrick Corbin
• Nestor Cortes
• Lewin Diaz
• Zach Eflin
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Foster Griffin
• Austin Hays
• Rhys Hoskins
• Adrian Houser
• Danny Jansen
• Kenley Jansen
• Pierce Johnson
• Anthony Kay
• Max Kepler
• Tyler Kinley
• Michael Kopech
• Starling Marte
• Phil Maton
• Steven Matz
• Dustin May
• James McCann
• Yoan Moncada
• Jordan Montgomery
• Cedric Mullins
• Sean Newcomb
• Marcell Ozuna
• Drew Pomeranz
• Jose Quintana
• Rob Refsnyder
• David Robertson
• Miguel Rojas
• Dominic Smith
• Michael Soroka
• Sung Mun Song
• Tomoyuki Sugano
• Caleb Thielbar
• Justin Wilson
• Mike Yastrzemski
• Kirby Yates

This list was originally published on 11-6-25 at 6:10pm central time.