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Seeking MLB Arbitration Expert For Paid Project

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As you may know, MLBTR has been publishing salary projections for arbitration eligible players for nine years, using an algorithm developed and maintained by economist Matt Swartz.

The traditional method of projecting the proper salary for arbitration eligible players does not involve an algorithm, instead focusing on comparable players.  As we’re always seeking to improve our own knowledge and projections, I hope to be trained on this traditional method.  I’m seeking a person with relevant experience at the MLB Labor Relations Department, MLB Players Association, teams, agencies, or third party consulting firms who is willing to teach me traditional arbitration projecting as a paid project.  We would collect the statistics needed and work through relevant examples.  Please note that I am not interested in learning how to argue cases at hearings, but rather in projecting the correct salary or salary range for any individual player.  If you’re interested in this paid project, please contact me at mlbarbitration@gmail.com and outline your relevant experience.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Latest On Marcell Ozuna

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Free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna has seemingly identified his top two remaining suitors. Ozuna suggested to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (hat tip to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) that he’s deciding between his latest team, the Cardinals, and the Rangers. He indicated that the Cardinals are his preferred choice.

The 29-year-old Ozuna is coming off a solid two-season run in St. Louis, which acquired him from Miami entering 2018. Ozuna was then fresh off a 5.0-fWAR season with the Marlins. He wasn’t as effective as a Cardinal, but he did post a pair of productive years with the club. Ozuna put up 2.6 fWAR in 2019, when he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a career-high 12 stolen bases over 549 plate appearances.

On the heels of Ozuna’s quality showing last season, the Cardinals began the winter by issuing him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he rejected. But it has been difficult to find another obvious suitor since then for Ozuna, and the Cardinals did just weaken their outfield depth by trading Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have recently been connected to Ozuna and the other most prominent free-agent outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos. It seems the club has some leeriness in regards to the long-maligned defensive abilities of Castellanos, whom it apparently views as more of an infielder than an outfielder. But there’s no doubt that Ozuna’s an outfielder, and he’d fill the Rangers’ need in the grass in the wake of their Nomar Mazara trade with the White Sox. However, one of the big questions is whether the Rangers will pony up for Ozuna, who – along with forcing the team to cough up a substantial amount of money – would cost them their second-highest draft pick in 2020 because he turned down a QO.

Astros Acquire Austin Pruitt

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The Astros have acquired right-hander Austin Pruitt from the Rays in exchange for outfielder Cal Stevenson and righty Peyton Battenfield, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Robert Murray first reported Stevenson was headed to the Rays. This is the second trade of Thursday night for the Rays, who previously swung a major deal with the Cardinals.

As the only player with major league experience in this trade, Pruitt’s the headliner. He’s also a Texas native, making this deal a homecoming of sorts. The 30-year-old saw action with the Rays in each season from 2017-19, though preventing runs was difficult for him. Pruitt posted a 4.87 ERA (with a much better 4.17 FIP) and recorded 6.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent groundball rate over 199 2/3 innings. However, he ranked near the top of the majors in spin rate last year, and that’s something the Astros are known to greatly value.

Most of Pruitt’s major league work has come as a reliever so far, but the ninth-round pick from 2013 was once a full-time starter in the minors. And Pruitt could return to a rotation in the majors this year, as Astros president of baseball operations/general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including McTaggart) that they intend “to give him a chance” to earn a rotation spot entering 2020. Unlike in the previous couple seasons, the Astros’ rotation has some question marks. Sure, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are great, but Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley are gone, and Lance McCullers Jr. is returning from Tommy John surgery. Brad Peacock and the relatively unproven Jose Urquidy could be the front-runners for the four and five positions in Houston’s starting staff.

The 23-year-old Stevenson didn’t last long with the Astros, who acquired him from the Blue Jays last July in a trade centering on right-hander Aaron Sanchez. Stevenson had a productive year at the High-A level between the two teams, as he slashed .288/.388/.384 with five home runs across 490 plate appearances.

A 10th-round pick of the Jays in 2018, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen ranked Stevenson as the Astros’ 39th-best prospect earlier this week, citing his “great contact and on base skills.” Stevenson has a chance to amount to a fourth outfielder, according to McDaniel and Longenhagen.

Battenfield, 22, was a ninth-round draft selection last summer. He amassed 39 1/3 innings with the Astros’ low-A affiliate in 2019 and fared quite well, putting up a 1.60 ERA/2.21 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 3.43 BB/9.

Astros Designate Dean Deetz

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The Astros have designated right-hander Dean Deetz for assignment, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to report. The move makes room for the Astros’ acquisition of fellow righty Austin Pruitt from the Rays.

The 26-year-old Deetz has been with the Astros since they used an 11th-round pick on him in 2014. Deetz had a brief, 3 1/3-inning debut with the Astros in 2018, but he has otherwise spent the past several years in the minors. While Deetz was lights-out at the Triple-A level in 2018, when he posted a meager .79 ERA (with a worse but still-impressive 3.04 FIP) across 34 innings, last season was far more difficult.

Despite striking out 13.5 batters per nine in 2019, Deetz struggled to a horrid 7.15 ERA/7.38 FIP over another 34 frames. He walked almost 10 batters per nine and recorded a whopping 34.8 percent home run-to-fly ball rate in that span.

Reds Have Shown Interest In Corey Seager

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The Reds came into the winter ripe for an upgrade at shortstop, but they haven’t done much at the position thus far. The club’s biggest move there has been picking up light-hitting veteran Freddy Galvis’ $5.5MM option. As things stand, Galvis is slated to enter 2020 as the Reds’ starter at short, though they have their sights set on a much more notable option. Cincinnati has “shown interest in” the Dodgers’ Corey Seager throughout the offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

There is no indication the Dodgers are about to trade Seager, nor is it clear what the Reds would be willing to give up for him. No doubt, though, he’d cost a significant amount in assets. Seager, who debuted in 2015, won NL Rookie of the Year honors the next season, has earned a pair of All-Star nods, and has established himself as one of the game’s most well-rounded shortstops. While the past two seasons were injury-truncated campaigns for Seager, the 25-year-old nonetheless put up 3.3 fWAR and hit .272/.335/.483 with 19 home runs across 541 plate appearances in 2019.

Any team acquiring Seager would be getting a player with two arbitration-eligible seasons left, not to mention someone who’s projected to rake in a more-than-reasonable $7.1MM in 2020. The Dodgers – despite a fairly quiet offseason so far – continue to have the makings of an elite team, so there’s no pressure on their part to give up Seager. That said, dealing Seager would bring back a valuable return that could help LA in another area, and it would free up short for super-prospect Gavin Lux or, in a less probable scenario, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. The Dodgers have shown interest in Lindor, but if we’re to believe Indians brass, it’s unlikely he’ll change homes prior to the season.

Angels, Cam Bedrosian Avoid Arbitration

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The Angels and right-handed reliever Cam Bedrosian have avoided arbitration with a $2.8MM settlement, Robert Murray reports. That’s the same salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Bedrosian in October.

At times, the 28-year-old Bedrosian has been a downright excellent late-game choice for the Angels since he made his major league debut in 2014. Bedrosian was at his best in 2016, a 40 1/3-innning showing in which he logged a near-spotless 1.12 ERA/2.13 FIP. He wasn’t that good in 2019, but Bedrosian did manage a solid 3.23 ERA/3.83 FIP with 9.39 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent groundball rate over 61 1/3 innings, despite a career-low average fastball velocity of 93 mph.

Bedrosian, who has one more arbitration-eligible season left after this one, will once again be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen in 2020. The team itself has undergone major changes in the past couple months, but its bullpen looks largely the same.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Michael A. Taylor

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Michael A. Taylor, as per reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Taylor will make $3.325MM in guaranteed money next season, slightly above the $3.25MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  Taylor can also make another $25K in bonuses should he reach 300 PA for the Nats next season.

Seen as a top-60 prospect headed into the 2015 season, Taylor has shown some flashes of potential (particularly during an impressive 2017 season) but has struggled to lock down anything beyond a fourth outfield role.  Taylor has hit only .240/.294/.393 over 1705 career plate appearances, and the end of his tenure in Washington seemed to be looming in the summer when he was optioned to the minors for over two months.

However, 2019 ended on a great note for both Taylor and the Nationals, as the outfielder re-emerged to make a big contribution to the club’s World Series run.  Taylor had a 1.010 OPS over 23 postseason plate appearances, including the solo homer that the Nats on the board in their 3-1 win over the Cardinals in Game Two of the NLCS.

Taylor still offers value to Washington as a fourth outfielder capable of solid glovework at all three positions, as well as elite speed.  Taylor turns 29 in March but is still controllable through the 2021 season in his fourth and final year of arbitration.  This fourth year arose as a result of his lengthy demotion, as Taylor finished the 2019 season with only four years and 129 days of service time.

Trea Turner, Roenis Elias, and Joe Ross are the three remaining arb-eligible Nationals who have yet to reach agreements with the team prior to tomorrow’s 11am CT deadline for exchanging arbitration figures.  You can follow along with all of the arb dealings on the MLBTR Arbitration Tracker.

Rays, Chaz Roe Avoid Arbitration

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The Rays and reliever Chaz Roe have avoided arbitration with an agreement worth $2,185,200, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. That’s in line with the $2.2MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected at the outset of the offseason.

The slider-heavy, right-handed Roe was a valuable member of the Rays’ bullpen over the previous two seasons. Most recently, Roe put up a 4.08 ERA/3.31 FIP with 11.47 strikeouts per nine and a 44.6 percent groundball rate across 51 innings in 2019. However, control was a problem for the 33-year-old Roe, who issued just under 5.5 walks per nine frames.

The upcoming season will be the penultimate arbitration-eligible year for Roe. He’ll remain a key part of a relief corps that stood out in 2019, when he, Emilio Pagan, Nick Anderson and Diego Castillo were among the playoff-bound Rays’ go-to options late in games.

Rays Acquire Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena From Cardinals

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The Rays have acquired first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, outfielder Randy Arozarena, and the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, the Rays’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B, and a catching prospect from the lower levels of the minors, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Edgardo Rodriguez is the catcher going to the Cardinals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.  Passan reported earlier today that Liberatore was headed to St. Louis, with Rosenthal adding that the trade involved six assets and at least two draft picks.

Tampa Bay was known to be looking outfield depth beyond its starting trio of Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfroe, especially after the club non-tendered Guillermo Heredia, its primary fourth outfielder from 2019.  Heredia’s role will be filled by Arozarena, who also brings added potential and some strong hitting numbers in his native Cuba, in the minor leagues, and even in his brief 23-plate appearance cameo with the Cardinals last season.

An international signing in the summer of 2016, Arozarena has a .292/.377/.477 slash line and 38 homers over 1302 minor league PA.  MLB Pipeline ranked him as the tenth-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system, with a scouting report that expressed some concerns about Arozarena’s aggressiveness at the plate and on the bases, as well as his ability at “making swift adjustments at the plate.”  Nonetheless, Arozarena’s hitting approach has only delivered good results thus far, and his speed makes him a solid center field option at least in the near future, if he might be better suited for the corners down the road.

Jose MartinezMartinez is also technically a depth option for the Rays in the corner outfield, but given Martinez’s longstanding defensive issues, he has long been tabbed as an ideal candidate to play for an American League team with DH at-bats on offer.  The right-handed hitting Martinez will now join three left-handed hitters (Nate Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, and the newly-signed Yoshitomo Tsutsugo) in the first base/DH mix, though Tampa expects Tsutsugo to see some action at third base.

While it remains to be seen how the Rays will fully shuffle and adjust their lineups, Martinez’s primary role seems pretty simple — he’ll be called upon to mash southpaws.  The 31-year-old late bloomer has hit .331/.405/.570 with 15 homers over 298 career PA against left-handed pitching, and also solid career numbers against righties, though Martinez’s same-sided productivity declined last season.  With fielding no longer a concern, however, the Rays (who have been linked to Martinez on the rumor mill for well over a year) are hoping that Martinez can concentrate fully on being a force at the plate.

The Cardinals entered the offseason with a clear goal of reducing their surplus in the outfield, and between today’s trade and dealing Adolis Garcia to the Rangers last month, St. Louis has achieved that goal without making any significant impact on its 2020 roster.  Perhaps most importantly, the Cards were able to move their excess parts while picking up one of baseball’s more promising pitching prospects in Liberatore, whose credentials we detailed earlier today.

Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and utilityman Tommy Edman all figure to play notable roles in the Cardinals’ outfield next season, with top prospect Dylan Carlson on the cusp of his MLB debut and utilitymen Rangel Ravelo and Yairo Munoz also capable of playing on the grass in a pinch.  It’s still possible St. Louis could further trade from this collection….or, perhaps, add to it.  The Cards have been linked to free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna all winter long, and re-signing Ozuna would allow the club to put a proven everyday performer in the midst of an outfield group that, besides Fowler, is young and pretty inexperienced at the big league level.

The draft pick swap is also a major component of this deal, as Tampa Bay will now have the 38th overall selection in the 2020 draft and St. Louis moves to 66th overall.  (Here is the current draft order, as well as the outline of the Competitive Balance Round selection process.)  The Competitive Balance Round picks are the only types of draft selections that can be traded, and the Rays have now boosted their standing next June by almost a full round’s worth of picks.  The Cards may see their 28-slot drop as the cost of acquiring a major prospect like Liberatore, who likely wasn’t available for only Martinez and Arozarena.

The 19-year-old Rodriguez has hit .338/.389/.495 with six home runs over his first 244 PA as a professional, two seasons with the Rays’ teams in the Dominican Summer League and rookie-ball Gulf Coast League (though he missed over six weeks this season due to injury).  Signed out of Venezuela during the 2017-18 international signing period, Rodriguez was ranked prior to the 2019 season as the 53rd-best prospect in Tampa Bay’s system, as per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen.  It remains to be seen if Rodriguez can remain as a catcher, though Longenhagen/McDaniels were impressed by his hitting ability.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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