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Recent History Of March Signings

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March is just around the corner. If you hadn’t noticed, a fair number of notable players remain unsigned. The very top of MLBTR’s pre-winter top-fifty free agent list remains well-represented on the open market, with a smattering of other notable players also still unsigned. This represents a continuation of the surge of late signings observed last winter, which was the first offseason conducted under the current collective bargaining agreement.

It’s not hard to see that the market is functioning differently under the new CBA. Here’s a listing of the most notable players who’ve yet to sign this year, alongside the recent history of MLB contracts inked during the month of March:

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

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Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

Central Injury Notes: Darvish, Gray, Duffy, Dunning

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

More health notes from the central divisions …

  • Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, who was scratched from his spring debut due to some elbow stiffness, is expected to throw a bullpen session Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team’s most notable offseason addition to the rotation, Gray will also throw from flat ground at a distance of 120 feet today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay (Twitter link). Manager David Bell told Feinsand that Gray was initially concerned about the elbow discomfort but is in vastly better spirits and has felt improvement each day since being scratched. For the time being, it seems, the Reds have decreasing reason to be concerned about Gray’s status.
  • The Royals are “backing off” from using Danny Duffy for the time being, manager Ned Yost tells reporters (Twitter links via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The southpaw experienced tightness in his shoulder and had difficulty getting loose for his latest side session, though he eventually completed that session. Duffy feels it’s a minor issue and some standard-issue early spring stiffness. The Royals are already down a rotation candidate with righty Trevor Oaks perhaps headed for hip surgery, and subtracting arguably their most talented starter from the mix would be a considerably more damaging blow. Duffy, 30, struggled through a down season in 2018 but was Kansas City’s best arm in 2016-17 when he worked to a 3.64 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 326 innings.
  • There was some ominous news out of White Sox camp, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that pitching prospect Dane Dunning is due for a closer medical look after experiencing forearm discomfort. The talented young righty has shown quite well ever since he cracked the professional ranks and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide. Unfortunately, he missed half of the 2018 season owing to an elbow sprain. The hope was that Dunning would be able to pick up where he left off this spring.

Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Extension

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Nolan Arenado’s days as the face of the Rockies franchise will continue beyond the 2019 season. Arenado, who had been slated to reach free agency next winter, has instead inked an eight-year contract extension that adds seven years and $234MM in new commitments. The Wasserman client’s new contract reportedly contains an opt-out clause after the third season in 2021, which would allow him to become a free agent in advance of his age-31 campaign, as well as full no-trade protection.

Nolan Arenado | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The newly agreed upon contract will leave in place the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed for 2019. He takes down $35MM annually over the next five seasons before receiving $32MM and $27MM salaries in the final two years.

Arenado is promised $260MM in total money over an eight-year term. Whether calculated cumulatively ($32.5MM annually) or in reference only to the seven new seasons ($33.4MM), the new contract establishes a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history. It’s the fourth-largest deal ever in terms of total guarantee, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM), Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and Alex Rodriguez (10 years, $275MM).

Arenado, 28 in April, has won a Gold Glove in all six of his Major League seasons to date, pairing that hardware with Silver Sluggers in each of the past four seasons. He’s made four consecutive All-Star teams and finished in the top five of National League voting in three straight seasons. Over the past four years, Arenado has led the National League in home runs on three occasions and posted a combined .297/.358/.573 batting line with 158 homers, 159 doubles and 19 triples.

Detractors point to Arenado’s home/road splits in suggesting that his value is inflated by Coors Field, and while it’s surely true that he benefits from that hitter-friendly setting, he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years (with many of those games coming in pitchers’ parks in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles). And park-neutral metrics like OPS+ (129) and wRC+ (127) feel that even after adjusting for his home park advantages, Arenado’s bat has been 27 to 29 percent better than that of a league-average hitter since 2015. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the game’s 35 best hitters in that four-year span and, when combined with his premier defense at the hot corner, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall wins above replacement among position players, per Fangraphs.

In all, there’s little denying Arenado’s place among the game’s legitimate superstars, and he carries perhaps more value to the Rockies than he would with any other organization given his existing connection with the fan base and within the Denver community. He’s nearly two years older than the current offseason’s two star free-agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so it’s not a surprise to see Arenado heading for a slightly shorter-term deal than either of his highly touted peers. But in terms of annual rate, the new contract already tops Machado’s annual salary and could potentially be higher than the AAV to which Harper will eventually agree.

Arenado is the second would-be 2019-20 free agent to take an extension rather than test an open market that has become increasingly slow for top-end talent. (Aaron Hicks signed a seven-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.) Had he hit the open market, it stands to reason that deep-pocketed teams like the Dodgers and particularly the Yankees would’ve made a push to land his services, but the presumptive top free agent on next year’s market will instead take his record-setting payday a year early in order to remain with the only organization he’s ever known.

For the Rockies, the new contract means that Arenado will play out at least the next three seasons alongside Trevor Story, cementing one of the game’s most productive left-side infield tandems for the foreseeable future. That duo’s presence likely means that uber-prospect Brendan Rodgers is ticketed for second base when he eventually does force his way up to the big league level. Should his future outlook stall for any reason, the Rox have plenty of other infield talent on the rise, most notably including Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson. Beyond that grouping, veteran Daniel Murphy signed a two-year contract to play first base this winter and will be entrenched in the heart of what should be a formidable batting order.

From a payroll vantage point, the Arenado contract will further push the Rox into franchise-record territory. The $137MM mark at which they opened the 2018 season was already an all-time high for the team, but Arenado’s new deal — depending on how the dollars are distributed — will likely bring Colorado’s Opening Day payroll beyond $155MM (as outlined by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). In terms of luxury taxation, the Rockies are still nearly $40MM shy of having anything to worry about in 2019, and their luxury tax ledger plummets to just north of $129MM next winter, which would place them nearly $80MM shy of incurring any penalties.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Rockies had made a record-AAV offer to Arenado and added he annual breakdown on Twitter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the two sides were closing in on an eight-year deal worth more than $255MM with an opt-out (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the exact salary terms, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement to be in place (Twitter links).

NL East Injury Notes: Hunter, Glover, Soroka, Victor Victor

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The Mets have had a few notable health issues arise early in camp, with Todd Frazier (link) and Jed Lowrie (link) each coming down with maladies. But they aren’t alone in that regard. Here are injury notes from the remaining four teams in the National League East:

  • Phillies setup man Tommy Hunter has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain in his right forearm and won’t throw for two weeks, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen). Hunter, 32, missed the first month of the 2018 season due to a hamstring strain and now looks to be in some degree of jeopardy as pertains to Opening Day 2019, though if he’s cleared to resume activities in two weeks’ time, he could potentially be built back up in time for the regular season. Hunter, owed $9MM in the second season of a two-year contract, pitched to a 3.80 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 64 frames of relief when healthy last season.
  • Similarly, the Nationals got more bad news on right-hander Koda Glover, who is being shut down for the time being due to a forearm strain in his right arm, as Mack Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. The Nats, by all accounts, love Glover’s potential but have been unable to keep him on the field over the past two seasons, as he’s been shelved by back, hip and shoulder injuries. Once looked at as a potential closer of the future in D.C., Glover has managed just 35 2/3 innings at the MLB level across the past two seasons. Despite only having pitched a total of 55 1/3 innings in the Majors, Glover already has more than two full seasons of MLB service time given his lengthy DL stays. On the plus side, the 25-year-old’s MRI revealed no damage to his elbow ligament. Glover expressed confidence that the issue will ultimately prove minor, though only time will tell whether that will ultimately be the case.
  • Braves righty Mike Soroka will pick up the ball again on Thursday, skipper Brian Snitker told reporters including David O’Brien of The Athletic (via Twitter). The hope surely is that a week or so of rest will allow his shoulder discomfort to subside. If not, it stands to reason that the Atlanta organization’s medical staff will order up an even lengthier timeout and further medical examination. Soroka is hoping for a healthy 2019 after his promising debut campaign was cut short by shoulder troubles.
  • An MRI revealed that Marlins prospect Victor Victor Mesa suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain when beating out a possible double-play grounder in Sunday’s Grapefruit League contest, per a team announcement. While that’s the lowest grade of strain, Mesa will be sidelined for a bit and has been reassigned to minor league camp as a result. Manager Don Mattingly called the injury disappointing (link via MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro), given that the Miami organization had hoped to get Mesa as many at-bats as possible in big league camp as it gets a first extended look at his skill set. Mesa will likely head to Class-A Advanced or Double-A for his first taste of professional ball in the States, Mattingly added.

Cardinals To Extend Miles Mikolas

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4:25pm: Mikolas will receive a $5MM signing bonus and $15.75MM annual salaries, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The deal also includes $2MM in escalators and full no-trade protection, Heyman reports (Twitter links).

12:55pm: The contract does not overwrite Mikolas’ 2019 salary but runs from 2020-23, per The Athetic’s Ken Rosenthal (on Twitter). That’ll give the Cardinals control of Mikolas through his age-34 season.

12:50pm: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Mikolas will be guaranteed a hefty $68MM over a four-year term on his new contract. That deal lines up identically with the four-year pact inked by postseason hero Nathan Eovaldi with the Red Sox earlier this winter. The deal, Heyman adds, can reach a total of $70MM in value.

12:45pm: The Cardinals and right-hander Miles Mikolas have agreed to terms on a contract extension, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The two sides had expressed mutual interest in completing such an arrangement back in January. Mikolas is represented by Octagon.

Miles Mikolas | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

This time one year ago, Cardinals fans were unsure what to think of Mikolas, the team’s primary rotation addition last winter. At the time, Mikolas was a 29-year-old who’d never established himself in the Majors but put himself firmly on MLB radars with a brilliant three-year run for the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Adding Mikolas on a two-year contract worth a guaranteed $15.5MM was met with a fair bit of skepticism.

Mikolas, however, proved his doubters wrong in emphatic fashion. In 32 starts for St. Louis, he totaled 200 2/3 innings with a pristine 2.83 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 49.3 percent ground-ball rate. Among qualified MLB starters, only Patrick Corbin and Jacob deGrom induced swings on pitches out of the strike zone at a higher clip than Mikolas’ brilliant 36.6 percent mark. Statcast pegged Mikolas in the 92nd and 90th percentiles, respectively, in terms of opponents’ exit velocity and hard contact allowed on a league-wide basis. Furthermore, no pitcher in baseball posted a better BB/9 mark than Mikolas, whose 3.28 FIP and 3.67 xFIP largely supported the notion that he was a quality big league starter.

Mikolas doesn’t need to replicate last season’s showing to the decimal point in order to justify the organization’s considerable expenditure — the value he provided was worth far more than $17MM last season — but he’ll need to settle in as a viable mid-rotation piece for the next few years in order to make good on the commitment. There’s little reason to doubt his ability to do so, however; as noted previously, virtually any metric agreed that Mikolas was a legitimate big league starter, and he finished the year as strongly as he started — if not more so.

For the Cardinals, locking up Mikolas now gives them some long-term solidity in a rotation that had previously stood to lose not only Mikolas but also Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright at season’s end. Between those impending departures, ongoing concerns surrounding Carlos Martinez’s shoulder and the perennial lack of durability from wunderkind Alex Reyes, the Cardinals had a deceptively uncertain long-term outlook in terms of starting pitching. Mikolas will now team with Jack Flaherty in comprising the St. Louis rotation for years to come, and the organization certainly has hopes that some combination of Martinez, Reyes and Dakota Hudson can work to round out the starting staff in the foreseeable future.

With this deal in place, the Cardinals now have more than $101MM committed to their 2020 roster (assuming even distribution of the salary) — though that number will drop substantially in 2021 when the contracts of Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter and Brett Cecil come off the books. The deal shouldn’t have any bearing on St. Louis’ 2019 payroll, which currently projects at just under $162MM — a slight increase over last year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $159.7MM.

Rangers Sign Logan Forsythe To Minor League Deal

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10:40am: Forsythe would earn a $2MM base salary upon making the big league roster, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

10:08am: The Rangers announced that they’ve signed veteran infielder Logan Forsythe to a minor league contract. The PSI Sports client will be in Major League camp and compete for a roster spot moving forward.

Forsythe, 32, split a disappointing 2018 season between the Dodgers and Twins, hitting a combined .232/.313/.291 with just two home runs through 416 plate appearances. That marked a second straight season of declining offensive output following a terrific two-year stretch in which he hit .273/.347/.444 in nearly 1200 plate appearances with the Rays from 2015-16. Forsythe did show better on-base skills with the Twins following a trade from Los Angeles, but his power outage only worsened in his brief stint with Minnesota.

One would imagine that a move to the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington could help to restore some of Forsythe’s missing pop, but he’ll first have to earn his way onto the club in what would presumably be a bench role. The Rangers traded Jurickson Profar to the division-rival Athletics this winter but still project to have a full infield with Rougned Odor at second base (Forsythe’s most frequent position), Elvis Andrus at shortstop and offseason pickup Asdrubal Cabrera at third base. Outside of Patrick Wisdom and backup catcher/infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, however, Texas doesn’t have much in the way infield alternatives on the 40-man roster at present, giving Forsythe a decent chance at making the roster.

At his best, Forsythe and his right-handed bat are a menace to left-handed pitching. The switch-hitting Cabrera struggled against lefties last season, and Odor has also typically been much stronger against right-handed pitching, which could help Forsythe carve out a role on the Rangers’ bench.

Indians Sign Hanley Ramirez To Minor League Deal

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Feb. 26: The Indians have formally announced the signing.

Feb. 24: Ramirez will earn $1MM in guaranteed salary if he makes Cleveland’s roster, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets, with some more money available in incentives.

Feb. 23: The Indians have agreed to a minor league deal, pending a physical, with free-agent first baseman Hanley Ramirez, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

Cleveland’s the first team for the 35-year-old Ramirez since Boston unceremoniously released him last June 1. Ramirez drew little reported interest after the Red Sox cut ties with him, owing to back-to-back seasons of subpar production at the plate and an inability to add value in the field or on the base paths. Formerly a superstar with the Marlins and a quality player with the Dodgers, Ramirez combined to hit a meager .245/.318/.421 (91 wRC+) with 29 home runs and minus-0.7 fWAR in 748 plate appearances from 2017-18.

Ramirez was an easily above-average hitter as recently as 2016, but that was his lone productive year with the Red Sox, who signed him to a four-year, $88MM deal prior to 2015. The contract was a bust for Boston, with which Ramirez contributed a microscopic 0.9 fWAR over 1,798 PAs. He also left much to be desired in left field and at first base during his Red Sox tenure, though he did earn playable marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating at the latter position in a combined 358 innings from 2017-18.

There was obviously considerable risk for the Red Sox when they signed Ramirez, whereas the Indians are buying low on him now and hoping to land a solid contributor for a nominal fee. It’s possible the right-handed Ramirez will catch on with the Indians in a first base/designated hitter platoon, as their projected starter at the former spot – Jake Bauers – is a lefty. Bauers struggled versus same-handed hurlers in 2018, but Ramirez pulverized southpaws last year and owns a lifetime .896 OPS against them.

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