Click here to read the transcript of today’s chat with Tim Dierkes.
Adam Warren Weighing Multiple Offers; Blue Jays Among Interested Teams
The Blue Jays are showing interest in several veteran relievers, including right-hander Adam Warren, per Robert Murray and Emily Waldon of The Athletic (Twitter link). Waldon tweets that Warren currently has offers from multiple teams in hand and is weighing his options.
Warren, 31, hasn’t been connected to many clubs this winter. It surely doesn’t help the righty that he missed time early in the season due to a back strain and then struggled following a trade from the Yankees to the Mariners. Warren posted a respectable 3.74 ERA in 21 2/3 frames with Seattle but saw his strikeout rate plummet from nearly 29 percent to to just 15.8 percent after changing teams. Warren’s average fastball dipped from 93 mph in 2017 to 91.9 mph in 2018, though he gained some velocity as the season wore on, and it’s possible that the early back troubles hindered his velocity to an extent.
Still, the sum of Warren’s efforts between the two clubs last year resulted in a 3.14 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 37.6 percent ground-ball rate in 51 2/3 innings. His 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate and 31.5 percent opponents’ chase rate were actually the best marks he’d turned in since 2014. Warren benefited from a sky-high 84.4 percent strand rate that he’s quite unlikely to replicate, but fielding-independent metrics such as FIP (3.94) and SIERA (3.84) still felt he was a solid, if unspectacular bullpen piece. He also has a history as a multi-inning reliever and has worked as a starter in the past, which one would think is all the more appealing to clubs around the league.
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said early this month that the “bulk” of the team’s focus between then and Opening Day would be on pitching additions. It’s not clear whether Warren is weighing multiple MLB or minor league offers, though Atkins noted at the time of his comment that he wasn’t ruling out adding another player on a big league deal.
Dombrowski: Red Sox Unlikely To Sign Additional Relievers
The Red Sox’ bullpen has been a source of scrutiny among fans and pundits alike for much of the offseason, and it seems quite likely that thinking will continue heading into the season. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters prior to today’s Spring Training contest that he doesn’t expect to sign any free-agent relievers between now and Opening Day (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI).
“As far as signings are concerned I would say we’re through at this point,” Dombrowski said when asked about his bullpen. Dombrowski wouldn’t expressly rule out the possibility of changing course if something in Spring Training necessitated an addition, but he added that at the moment, the Sox “don’t have anything going on outside the organization.”
It’s been apparent for quite some time now that a reunion between the Red Sox and Craig Kimbrel is exceedingly unlikely — Dombrowski himself has hinted at that reality — but it’s still somewhat of a surprise to hear a fairly definitive statement indicating that the Sox are done adding. The free-agent market for relievers has largely been picked over, but there are still some interesting big league arms in the form of Bud Norris, Adam Warren and Tony Sipp, among others (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker).
Boston, as explored here recently, is within roughly $4.7MM of the top luxury tax penalty bracket, which would see their top draft pick reduced by 10 spots next year and would come with a 75 percent tax on any dollar spent above that line. Given that Spring Training games are already underway, though, it seems unlikely that any reliever other than Kimbrel would command enough money to push the Sox across that line. Then again, perhaps the Sox are simply confident that they’ll be able to make any upgrades they need on the trade market this summer and would prefer to leave a bit of flexibility for that possibility.
It’s also worth noting that Dombrowski didn’t rule out adding a reliever at all, so perhaps the Boston will be active on the waiver and trade markets this spring — although it’s unlikely that an intriguing reliever would fall all the way to the Sox, who have the lowest priority after winning an MLB-high 108 games last year. The Sox could make some fringe additions to the ’pen in minor trades, though, as was the case back in November when they acquired Colten Brewer from the Padres. They’re also reportedly entertaining offers for their possible surplus of catchers, and it’s certainly feasible that they could add a big league bullpen asset by that measure.
[Related: Boston Red Sox depth chart]
Bradford writes that right-hander Matt Barnes is the early favorite for ninth-inning work with Boston this year, though he’ll have some competition from Ryan Brasier in that role. Beyond that pairing, the Sox will see what right-handers Brewer, Tyler Thornburg, Steven Wright, Brandon Workman, Hector Velazquez, Travis Lakins and Marcus Walden can bring to the table this spring. Lefty options include Brian Johnson, Bobby Poyner and Josh Taylor. As for minor league signees, the Sox brought Carson Smith back to the organization and also signed Zach Putnam, Brian Ellington and the recently un-banned Jenrry Mejia.
Bryce Harper Expected To Make Decision This Week
12:35pm: Harper’s decision is expected to come this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. At the moment, the only three teams in the mix for him are the Phillies, Dodgers and Giants.
10:00am: The Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still on a shorter-term pact, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Harper and agent Scott Boras are still eyeing a long-term deal. Mark Feisand of MLB.com tweets that the Phillies are the only team currently negotiating a “true” long-term deal with Harper and agent Boras. The Giants, like the Dodgers, are still only interested at shorter terms than the 10-year offer Philadelphia is reportedly willing to put on the table.
7:38am: The Dodgers have jumped back into the Bryce Harper bidding and held a meeting with him as recently as last night, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Dodgers officials, including manager Dave Roberts, were seen in Las Vegas to meet with Harper. Per Jeff Passan and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter links), the Dodgers re-engaged with Harper’s camp two weeks ago, although at the time, they were still hoping to secure Harper on a shorter-term pact. Harper, however, has been seeking at least a 10-year deal and has not budged from that thinking, Passan notes.
While there has not been any firm indication that the Dodgers are now willing to put forth a decade-long offer (or longer), the meeting is nonetheless quite notable at this juncture in Harper’s free-agent saga. Over the weekend, Phillies owner John Middleton also visited Harper in his home city, and reports at the time indicated that there was optimism surrounding the possibility of finalizing a 10-year deal with Harper as soon as tonight. That could still prove to true, but the question for many onlookers had been whether the Phillies were bidding against themselves. That no longer appears to be the case, as the Vegas meeting between the Dodgers and Harper suggests a rather sincere level of interest on their end.
Los Angeles has already added one big-ticket outfield item this winter, signing A.J. Pollock to a four-year deal worth $55MM, and bringing Harper aboard would give them a new right fielder to go along with their new-look center fielder. It’d also muddy the outfield mix a bit, leaving only one spot with Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger in need of at-bats there. Bellinger could also see time at first base, of course, although that would come at the cost of playing time for 2018 breakout slugger Max Muncy.
That said, the Dodgers are never ones to shy away from cultivating extreme levels of depth, and bringing Harper into the fold would create an extraordinarily deep mix of offensive options for Roberts. Of course, the Dodgers have also reportedly explored deals involving Pederson this winter as well, and signing Harper could also prove to be a harbinger for the trade of another outfielder.
The Dodgers already traded away Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood in what looked at the time to be a trade that opened both roster space and luxury tax breathing room for a possible Harper addition, but the only notable signing they’ve made since that swap was Pollock’s four-year pact. Adding Harper would definitively skyrocket the Dodgers into luxury tax territory, as they’re already only about $4MM shy of that threshold, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
Rockies Extend Bud Black
10:45am: The Rockies have announced the extension.
10:32am: The Rockies and manager Bud Black have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2022 season, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Black’s original three-year pact with Colorado ran spanned the 2017-19 seasons and included a 2020 club option.
Black, 61, enjoyed a 15-year playing career as a pitcher (primarily for the Royals, Giants and Indians) and spent nearly nine years as the manager of his now-division-rival Padres from 2007-15. After being dismissed in San Diego, Black was in a front-runner for the Nationals’ managerial post before the team’s offers to him were reported to be exceptionally low for a veteran manager. He instead spent a year as a senior advisor in the Angels’ front office before being hired by the Rockies in the 2016-17 offseason.
Black’s first two years with the Rockies have been a success, as he’s overseen a 178-147 record and made a pair of postseason appearances via Wild Card berths. While the Rockies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the 2017 National League Wild Card Game, they topped the Cubs in the 2018 Wild Card and moved onto the National League Division Series. Their World Series aspirations were cut short in a decisive sweep at the hands of the Brewers, however. He’s finished third in National League Manager of the Year voting in each of his two seasons in Colorado.
Rockies pitchers have taken a step forward under Black, and while he surely isn’t the sole reason for that, Black’s 15-year pitching career and seven-year run as a highly respected pitching coach with the Angels surely is of benefit to a young Rockies pitching staff. With this new deal in place, that young pitching staff will have some continuity as it continues to make strides in pitching at the game’s most hitter-friendly venue. Continued success for Black, too, could eventually push his career managerial record north of .500; it currently sits at 649-713 after managing some underwhelming Padres rosters during some of the leanest seasons in that franchise’s history.
Twins Designate Zack Granite For Assignment
The Twins have designated outfielder Zack Granite for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for newly signed Marwin Gonzalez, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets.
Granite, 26, forced his way onto the Twins’ big league roster with a .338/.392/.475 showing in Triple-A in 2017, though that output was buoyed by a .371 average on balls in play. His time in the Majors didn’t prove quite as fruitful, as he slashed just .237/.321/.290 in 107 trips to the plate. Granite struggled through a dismal .211/.282/.245 batting line in an injury-shortened 2018 season in Triple-A Rochester and, in the process, saw himself leapfrogged on the organizational depth chart by fellow outfielder Jake Cave, whom the Twins acquired from the Yankees last spring.
While Granite has elite speed and a strong defensive skill set, he’s largely devoid of power, never having totaled more than six home runs in a season (which came in 2017 between the Twins and Triple-A). But, as a career .282/.348/.360 hitter in the minors with a 10.2 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and a minor league option remaining, he could certainly hold appeal to another club in need of outfield options. A team thin in the outfield could look to give Granite a chance at regular reps, but his speed and defense would also make him a viable fourth outfielder o a team with an already set mix of starters.
Yankees Extend Aaron Hicks
Aaron Hicks won’t be testing the open market next winter after all. The Yankees announced on Monday that they’ve signed Hicks, a client of CAA Baseball, to a seven-year contract extension that supersedes his previous one-year, $6MM contract for the 2019 campaign. The new pact will reportedly guarantee Hicks $70MM and come with a club option for an eighth season, meaning Hicks is now controlled by the Yankees through his age-35 season.
Hicks will reportedly receive a $2MM signing bonus in addition to a $6MM salary in 2019 before earning $10.5MM annually from 2020-23 and $9.5MM in 2024-25. The club option is said to be valued at $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout), and while Hicks doesn’t have any no-trade protection on the deal, he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus upon being traded.
Hicks, 29, has quietly emerged as one of the game’s more underrated players over the past couple of seasons. The former first-rounder, acquired in a lopsided deal that sent catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Twins, struggled in his first season with the Yankees but has since hit .255/.368/.470 with 42 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and 21 stolen bases in 942 plate appearances. Hicks has generally graded out as a quality defensive center fielder in his career at the MLB level and provides plenty of value on the basepaths beyond his raw stolen base totals, as well.
Over the past two seasons, only five players in baseball (min. 900 plate appearances) have drawn walks at a higher clip than Hicks’ 15 percent mark, and his 18.9 percent strikeout rate in that time checks in below the league average. His 21.5 percent chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone in that time is tied with teammate Brett Gardner for the ninth-lowest in baseball in that same span.
For the Yankees, the agreement with Hicks locks them into a long-term mix featuring sluggers Giancarlo Stanton (signed through 2027) and Aaron Judge (controlled through 2022) for the foreseeable future. That trio will be joined by Gardner in 2019 and, if healthy, by Jacoby Ellsbury, who is signed through 2020. Outfield prospect Clint Frazier, meanwhile, looms in the upper minors. Fellow prospect Estevan Florial is likely still two years from being a factor in the Majors.
Because Hicks was already signed for the 2019 season at a $6MM rate, today’s agreement is effectively a six-year, $64MM extension. For luxury tax purposes, though, it’ll be treated as a seven-year deal that comes with a $10MM annual luxury hit. The Yankees were already over the luxury tax line, albeit in the lowest penalty tier after resetting their tax right by dipping under the threshold last season. The Hicks contract adds another $4MM to their luxury ledger for the season, which will cost them an additional $800K in penalties.
Not many position players sign an extension by the time they reach five-plus years of service and are within a year free agency, making Hicks’ case somewhat of a rarity. But, as shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Charlie Blackmon does stand out as one recent player to have done so, although as a more established hitter, he received a larger sum over a shorter term than Hicks secured with today’s agreement. Prior to that pair, the last position player in this service class to ink an extension of five or more years was Andre Ethier back in 2012.
By signing the deal, Hicks will forgo what has become an increasingly shaky free-agent market for players. Unlike the others who have recently signed extensions, however, Hicks could’ve tested the market as soon as next winter. It’s certainly possible that with another big season at the plate, he’d have been poised to top the money afforded to him by this contract — certainly on an average annual value basis. However, he’ll instead sacrifice a bit of that long-term earning power in exchange for the security of an immediate payday. It’s fair to wonder if other 2019-20 free agents will look at recent market trends and do the same over the next several weeks. Given the slow pace of free agency and the disappointing deals that many middle-tier free agents have taken over the past two seasons, Hicks could be the first of multiple would-be free agents to go this route.
Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported the extension and the terms of the deal (on Twitter). Marc Carig of The Athletic tweeted that there was an option for an eighth season, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the contract breakdown (Twitter links).
Twins Sign Marwin Gonzalez
The Twins have announced the signing of free-agent infielder/outfielder Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez, who is represented by the Boras Corporation, receives a two-year, $21MM deal that will pay him $12MM in 2019 and $9MM in 2020.
Gonzalez, 30 in March, emerged as one of MLB’s most versatile utility pieces over the past two seasons and played a major role in bringing the Astros to the 2017 World Series. The switch-hitter’s terrific .303/.377/.530 batting line that year regressed to .247/.324/.409 in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2018 results were weighed down by a sluggish start. Gonzalez carried a .612 OPS into June but rebounded to the tune of a .266/.343/.462 slash over the final four months, during which time he clubbed 12 of his 16 home runs. Overall, he’s posted a healthy .274/.349/.467 line with 39 homers, 59 doubles and three triples over his past 1067 plate appearances.
Known as much for his defensive versatility as anything else — agent Scott Boras dubbed him “Swiss G” early in the offseason — Gonzalez logged 150-plus innings at first base, second base, shortstop and in left field last year. He’s logged significant innings at all four infield spots over the past two seasons and has tallied more than 1000 innings in left field as well. He’s drawn plus marks for that work in left (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, +2 Outs Above Average) and has generally drawn solid marks for his glovework at first base, second base and third base in recent years (with defensive metrics being less fond of his defense at shortstop).
While Gonzalez won’t be in line to man one singular position on a regular basis, it’s likely that the Twins will mix him into the lineup on a near-regular basis over the next couple of seasons. He’ll provide the club with a high-quality means of keeping first baseman C.J. Cron, second baseman Jonathan Schoop, shortstop Jorge Polanco and third baseman Miguel Sano fresh. Gonzalez also seems likely to log some time in the outfield, and given that all three of Minnesota’s current outfielders — Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler — can play all three outfield slots, Gonzalez could be the first in line to get some outfield work when any of that trio is out of the lineup. In short, he’ll provide rookie manager Rocco Baldelli with an enormous amount of flexibility when mapping out his daily lineups. And, with Schoop a free agent at season’t end, Marwin could potentially give the Twins a regular option in 2020 if prospect Nick Gordon doesn’t adequately rebuild his stock this year.
The addition of Gonzalez will cost one of Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo a spot on the active roster and potentially puts Adrianza’s spot on the 40-man roster in jeopardy. Like Gonzalez, Adrianza is a switch-hitting utility piece who played all over the infield and in left field last year, though his bat has never approached Gonzalez’s 2017-18 levels. Minnesota also has Ronald Torreyes on the 40-man roster under a non-guaranteed, split contract, though Torreyes has one minor league option remaining.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR pegged Gonzalez as a candidate to receive a four-year contract (at a lower annual rate of $9MM) given the fact that his versatility figured to create no shortage of demand throughout the league. Many pundits at the time — myself included — were surprised that Houston didn’t issue a $17.9MM qualifying offer to Gonzalez; while that’d be a huge price to pay for one season of his services, the thinking at the time was that he’d comfortably out-earn that sum on a three- or four-year pact, thus making him a safe bet to reject the deal and net the Astros a compensatory draft pick. In retrospect, the Astros’ decision not to do so looks quite prudent.
From a broader perspective, Gonzalez’s contract is in some ways indicative of the changing market landscape that has served as a source of consternation for both players and agents this winter. While his $10.5MM annual salary is quite large for a super-utility player, to be sure, Gonzalez’s ultimate guarantee was for half the length and under 40 percent of the total dollars the Cubs pledged to Ben Zobrist as he entered his age-35 season just three years ago. While Zobrist was a more established hitter and predicting that type of money for Gonzalez seemed overly aggressive even at the outset of free agency, few would’ve predicted such great disparity between their contracts. Gonzalez is roughly a half decade younger than Zobrist was at the time of his deal, after all.
While Gonzalez’s contract falls shy of what virtually any publication predicted for him entering the winter, that $10.5MM annual value is nonetheless robust, and he’ll have the chance to re-enter free agency at a relatively youthful age. A four-term deal at that point will be even less likely, but he’d certainly be a candidate to receive another strong annual value on a two- or possibly three-year pact if he maintains his recent level of production.
For the Twins, Gonzalez will join offseason newcomers Schoop, Cron and Nelson Cruz to a revamped lineup that figures to be more productive than it was in 2018. If the Twins are able to coax bounceback seasons out of some combination of Schoop, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, their offense will be among the more formidable groups in the American League. The team’s pitching staff could certainly use further augmentation, and it’s worth noting that a pair of prominent free-agent arms — Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel — remain unsigned. The extent to which the Twins are interested in either at present isn’t known, though they’ve at least been linked to Kimbrel in the past month.
Whether they ultimately come to terms with either (or acquire another pitching upgrade), it’s clear that Minnesota at least has the financial means to do so. The Twins’ payroll will still be shy of last year’s $128MM Opening Day mark, and they have fewer than $25MM committed to the 2020 roster.
Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links) first had the deal and some contract terms. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter) had the years and dollars. Dan Hayes of The Athletic first connected the two sides.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Spring Injuries: Davis, Palka, Mesa, Sandoval
With Spring Training games underway, we’ll use this post to track some of the minor aches and pains as they flare up around the game…
- A mild left calf strain has kept Khris Davis on the shelf for the beginning of Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. There’s not much cause for concern, but the A’s don’t want to rush Davis until he is back at full strength. He’s listed as day-to-day for now, though the issue has flared up a couple of times since the start of camp. Shutting down all baseball activity is the prudent move for Davis, who is of course a central piece for Oakland’s offense. The 31-year-old DH hit exactly .247 in each of the last four seasons, while his slugging has increased year-over-year, from .505 in 2015 to .524 in 2016 to .528 in 2017 to .549 last year. Davis is a key contributor in just about any scenarios that has the A’s challenging Houston for the AL West crown.
- White Sox right fielder Daniel Palka was pulled from a Spring Training game in the second inning today with left hamstring tightness, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Palka was hitting cleanup for the White Sox, who lost their first two spring contests in a pair of split-squad games on Saturday. Palka became a fan favorite while slugging 27 home runs for the Southsiders as a 26-year-old rookie last year, but he’ll need to develop other parts of his game to survive Chicago’s rebuild. His overall slash line of .240/.294/.484 combined with subpar defense in the outfield corners leaves much to be desired.
- Highly-touted Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa left Sunday’s Spring Training game with a right hamstring strain, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The Marlins 22-year-old outfielder left the game after running out a grounder. He will return to Jupiter to be re-examined, though it would not appear to be a serious injury. He’s listed as day-to-day. Hamstring injuries can linger, of course, and the Marlins will want to be extra cautious with their prized acquisition as they prepare him for his first professional season stateside.
- Pablo Sandoval tweaked a side muscle, though it does not appear to be anything serious. The Giants will hold him back a day or two, but rest appears the only course of action as of now, per Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle (via Twitter). Sandoval isn’t the player he once was, but he did rebound at least a little bit from his horror show days in Boston. Last season, Sandoval hit .248/.310/.417 across 252 plate appearances, which is production the Giants will take given their minimum salary commitment.
MLBTR Poll: NL Central Hierarchy
When the offseason kicked off, the National League East’s flurry of moves spotlit the four-team race between the Nationals, Braves, Mets and Phillies as a premier event of the 2019 season. Since then, the National League Central has drummed up quite the competition of their own. PECOTA projections for the 2019 season recently surprised many by dropping the Cubs all the way to last place with a projected record of 79-83. The Brewers are pegged to win 88 games, 85 for the Cardinals, 81 for the Reds and 80 for the Pirates, the takeaway here being that there are five competitive clubs with a shot to win the NL Central. Last year the division gave us a three-team race between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers that ended in thrilling fashion. After flirting with the division lead for most of two seasons. the Brew Crew finally caught the Cubs and took the NL Central crown in a one-game playoff. The Brewers are the new kings of the Central, but clocks reset and everyone starts from zero on Opening Day, when the race begins anew.
Not only did the Brewers win the Central in 2018, but they’re on the shortlist for winners of the winter. By adding Yasmani Grandal on a one-year deal, bringing back Mike Moustakas and adding another shifty left-hander to the bullpen in Alex Claudio, the Brewers are going for the kill. They still don’t have a bonafide ace, but they didn’t last year either and the staff is deep. Besides, they have reigning MVP Christian Yelich leading a hungry group that’s gotten better every year under Craig Counsell en route to their NLCS loss to the Dodgers. The young Cubs lost the 2015 NLCS and came back to win it all the next season – the Brewers very well could do the same.
The Cubs still won 95 games, and they are returning close to the same club for 2019. They added around edges with Brad Brach and Xavier Cedeno in the bullpen mix and Daniel Descalso taking over David Ross’ empty seat as spirit of the clubhouse. Otherwise, they kept Cole Hamels around for $20MM, they kept Addison Russell around despite his suspension, but all of a sudden the kingpin of the central has been pronounced dead upon impact. Of course, the frightening amalgamate known as Bryzzo is a proven foundation, and if Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo return to form and stay healthy, the first-place Cubs may yet live again.
The Cardinals machine kept pumping in 2018 en route to 88 wins, and they’ve added perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Matt Carpenter will be hitting leadoff for them again, Yadier Molina remains entrenched behind the plate, and they have a slew of young arms ready to make an impact for the major league club. Question marks surround their most-trusted veteran arms as Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have to prove they’re healthy enough to contribute. Mike Shildt is getting rave reviews for the impact he has had on this ballclub, and in his first full season as skipper, a division title is very much in reach so long as they stick to the Cardinal Way.
In recent seasons, that’s where the conversation has ended – but not this year. The Reds remain a distant fourth for the time being, but for the first time in a long time they made significant upgrades to their starting staff with Alex Wood, Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark. The offense should continue to mash in Great American Ballpark, and there’s some real excitement around this team. Top prospect Nick Senzel may break camp as, suddenly, a centerfielder, but even if he doesn’t, Yasiel Puig is more than happy to stall for time and entertain the crowds in Cincy until Senzel is ready. If nothing else, the Reds are definitely a better team than in 2018, and they’re fun.
The Pirates are the sleeper here, which is a kind way of saying they’re likeliest to land in the cellar. They’ve been mostly forgotten in a winter without a significant free agent acquisition, but they have made changes. Their middle infield plays for the Tigers now, and the new duo of Adam Frazier and Erik Gonzalez don’t have to do a ton to match the production from Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, who combined for only 0.4 rWAR while missing significant chunks of time. GM Neil Huntington’s major additions came last July with Chris Archer and Keone Kela, and this team was better than most of us remember in 2018, finishing with 82 wins. If Archer finds his top form and Jameson Taillon takes a step forward in his development, the Pirates might surprise us.
Maybe the Cubs will surprise everyone and sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, but more than likely these teams are who they are for the beginning of 2019. PECOTA has the Brewers at the top with the other four not far behind. What say you?
