Ryan Tepera Elects Free Agency
Right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera has elected free agency, according to MLB.com’s transactions page. The Blue Jays designated Tepera on Monday, but because he has more than three years of service time, he was able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Tepera enjoyed a long run as a member of the Blue Jays, who chose him in the 19th round of the 2009 draft. He debuted in 2015 and was especially productive from 2016-17, a 142 1/3-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.60 ERA with 9.42 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9, before falling off this season.
Elbow troubles (including late-May surgery) limited Tepera to just 21 2/3 innings in 2019, during which he posted a 4.98 ERA/6.03 FIP with a paltry 5.82 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. The 32-year-old saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 95 mph range to 93.7 in the process, while his swinging-strike rate fell from 14 percent in 2018 to 12.6 this season. Needless to say, this isn’t an ideal time to reach free agency for Tepera, who had been projected to earn $1.6MM in arbitration before Toronto cut him loose.
Trade Candidate: Jon Gray
The Rockies are coming off a 71-win season, and even the most optimistic observer would be hard-pressed to expect a major bounce-back effort in 2020. Not only are the Rockies stuck in a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, who figure to rule the NL West yet again next year, but the Rox seemingly aren’t in position to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Rockies owner Dick Monfort has said the team lacks payroll flexibility, which suggests it won’t be in for an offseason of headline-worthy acquisitions.
[RELATED: Rockies Offseason Outlook]
The Rockies opened this year with a franchise record $145MM-plus in payroll, and they’re already in line for a 2020 outlay in the $160MM range, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. At least a small portion of that is slated to belong to right-hander Jon Gray, who MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects will make $5.6MM via arbitration next season. However, considering next year will be Gray’s penultimate season of control, now may be as good a time as any for Colorado to trade him.
Gray, who turned 28 earlier this week, has endured his share of ups and downs since he joined the Rockies as the third overall pick in 2013. His results have alternated between very good (especially for someone stuck pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Colorado) and unspectacular, with Gray’s output this year falling in line more with the first category. He racked up 150 innings of 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP ball with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a personal-best 50.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Gray posted a career-high 96.1 average mph on his fastball, which ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile, per Statcast.
Aside from his velocity, Gray wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero in 2019, as he finished toward the bottom of the league in most of its key categories. Nevertheless, Gray’s most recent production, his career numbers (4.46 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate) and his affordability over the next couple years would likely lead to plenty of interest if the Rockies were to place him on the trading block.
With few possible exceptions (Corey Kluber? Matthew Boyd? Chris Archer? Jose Quintana?), this offseason’s class of starters who might be attainable via trade doesn’t look as if it’ll be teeming with front-line potential. Meanwhile, free agency has two obvious aces – Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg – followed by Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and a series of flawed choices. It’s possible some starter-needy teams would just assume swing a trade for Gray than pay up for someone like Jake Odorizzi, who’d also cost a draft pick to reel in, or sign another good but unspectacular free agent.
With Gray, it seems the worst-case scenario is that an acquiring team would be picking up a competent mid- to back-end starter who wouldn’t put much of a dent in its payroll. Best case? The hard-throwing Gray morphs into a front-of-the-rotation bargain. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine a slew of contenders lining up for Gray’s services if the Rockies were to make him available. Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020, and there hasn’t been any word about a potential Gray extension. All that said, this looks like an opportune time for general manager Jeff Bridich to consider parting with Gray.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Domingo German
Yankees right-hander Domingo German enjoyed a quality 2019 season before it ended in undignified fashion in late September. German went on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, thus preventing him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff series against the Twins and Astros. Although the league still hasn’t interviewed German, a resolution to his case should occur “in a matter of weeks,” not months, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post write.
As is always the case with a player involved in a domestic issue, it’s up in the air whether his team will welcome him back. However, the Yankees are the same club that acquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in December 2015 when he was amid serious domestic troubles of his own. The league ultimately suspended Chapman for 30 games to open the 2016 season. Now, regardless of whether the Yankees keep German, he could face a ban to start the 2020 campaign after sitting out the last couple weeks of 2019.
The status of German may help inform the Yankees’ offseason plans, as he was one of the team’s most effective rotation options in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. The Yankees look like a team in need of starting help right now, and the problems in their rotation will become even more acute if they’re unwilling or unable to pencil German into the group for at least the beginning of next season.
White Sox, Jose Abreu Have Discussed Long-Term Contract
The White Sox have one particularly notable free agent in first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu, who has never looked all that likely to leave the club. Both sides have said time and again that they would like to continue their partnership, and the White Sox protected against Abreu’s exit somewhat by giving him a qualifying offer earlier this week. With that in mind, the Nov. 14 deadline to accept the QO may be moot in the case of Abreu, with whom the White Sox have discussed a long-term contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.
In Abreu’s case, “long term” could be relatively short. After all, he’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old whom MLBTR has re-signing with the White Sox on a two-year, $28MM deal. Even that total looks somewhat generous for a non-elite hitter who brings little to no defensive value to the table. Just last winter, DH Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins after a somewhat more impressive season than the one Abreu just had. Cruz was then fresh off a .256/.342/.509 season with 37 home runs, whereas Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs this year.
Despite Abreu’s ab0ve-average contributions at the plate, the White Sox ranked 18th in the majors in wRC+ and 24th in runs this season. They’re clearly a team in need of offensive help if they’re finally going to return to relevance in 2020, so retaining Abreu for a reasonable sum would make sense. Keeping Abreu would at least enable the White Sox to cancel out one potential need area and move on to other business.
Teams With Catching Needs Reportedly Eyeing Cubs’ Contreras
While it would seem surprising to see the Cubs put young backstop Willson Contreras up for trade, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link) that it’s a possibility. “Multiple teams” around the game believe the Chicago organization will take offers for the 27-year-old, per the report.
Let’s stop here to make clear: the expectations of rival executives does not a trade make. But it’s notable nevertheless that such a potential outcome has sprung up at this earlier stage of the offseason; after all, teams have been talking already. The negotiating partners of Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein will want to know whether there’s any realistic possibility of landing Contreras, or whether instead they should simply look elsewhere.
There’s no denying the major value Contreras would have on the open market. He dealt with some leg injuries, but was excellent when healthy. Over 409 plate appearances, Contreras slashed .272/.355/.533 with 24 home runs. He’s a lifetime 117 wRC+ hitter who is perhaps on the upswing (or at least not in decline) with the bat.
Behind the plate? The tools all seem to be there. He has generally been quite successful at cutting down the running game and at blocking stray pitches. There’s an argument that Contreras has been on the upswing in the framing department; he ended the year ranked as a positive in that regard — at least by one tabulation. Framing metrics have varied.
MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian looked at this question recently, noting that there are multiple ways to look at the matter. It seems clear the team feels that Contreras isn’t a fully finished product, though in some respects that only makes him more intriguing.
Bastian quotes Epstein:
“We’ve won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate. We’ve had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can’t continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well.”
Contreras won’t turn 28 until next May. He’s projected to earn a relatively stout $4.5MM in his first trip through arbitration, but that’s a plenty manageable figure for a regular backstop. The three years of contract control remaining are quite enticing, all things considered.
All of those factors also make Contreras exceptionally valuable to the Cubs — a team that isn’t exactly in position to pack it in for a rebuild. True, they have Victor Caratini on hand to perhaps take a bigger piece of the action if paired with a veteran. But you’d think that new manager David Ross would be well-positioned to help Contreras reach his monster ceiling. And there’s a reason that clubs prize the few, rare catchers in the game that contribute both with the glove and with the bat on a near-everyday basis.
Teams are already considering just how much to pay the older but also excellent Yasmani Grandal in free agency. They may have a more affordable alternative in Contreras, though it’ll surely cost a small fortune in trade value. (Last year’s J.T. Realmuto swap provides some conceptual help, though he was a year closer to free agency at the time he was dealt.) Just what the Cubs would be looking for in return isn’t known, though it would presumably not be an entirely future-oriented bargain for the Chicago organization. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether talks gain any traction and, if so, what direction they take.
Cubs To Hire Andy Green As Bench Coach
Former Padres skipper Andy Green will be named the new bench coach for the Cubs, per Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted that Green was expected to be tapped after he was linked to the job through reports earlier this week.
Green becomes the top lieutenant under new Cubs manager David Ross, who is turning over a major portion of his staff. Last year’s bench coach, Mark Loretta, will leave the Chicago organization, Heyman adds via Twitter. Loretta, like Green, came from San Diego.
It seems the Cubs preferred to provide Ross with an experienced manager at his right hand, as this’ll be his first-ever season in charge of a dugout. Green helmed the Friars for almost four full seasons and also did the in-game decisionmaking before that in the minor-leagues.
Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu
It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you sign?
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Madison Bumgarner 40% (5,623)
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Zack Wheeler 38% (5,327)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 23% (3,191)
Total votes: 14,141
Rangers, Phillies Reportedly Interested In Josh Donaldson
As the offseason drew near, it became obvious that star third baseman Josh Donaldson could again be a major early target. Teams wishing for top-level production without the lengthy commitment will be vying for the veteran.
At least two clubs — the Rangers and Phillies — are already making their interest known, according to reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both were among the best on-paper fits entering the open market, as we noted in the course of our list of the top fifty free agents.
Before those and other lurking organizations can put in their bids, Donaldson will have to formally decline the qualifying offer he was issued by the Braves. That’s a formality, but it’ll keep the offers off the table until November 14th. (Interested teams can chat with Donaldson’s reps in the meantime, it’s worth noting.)
[RELATED: 2019-20 Offseason Calendar]
Last winter, the Braves were able to lure Donaldson with a one-year, $24MM offer. But that came on the heels of an injury-riddled campaign for the former MVP, who more than made good on the hefty bet placed by the Atlanta organization with a strong and healthy 2019 season.
Donaldson is a month away from his 34th birthday. And he wasn’t quite at the height of his powers in the just-completed campaign. But he was an outstanding performer against any measure other than his own top-of-class ceiling. Over 659 plate appearances, Donaldson turned in a .259/.379/.521 batting line (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and a healthy 15.2% walk rate.
It wasn’t just a return with the bat. Depending upon one’s defensive metric of choice, he was either a good or excellent performer at the hot corner, resulting in something like a 5 or 6 WAR season. If you’re not a fan of the glove grades … let’s just say the former Athletics and Blue Jays superstar pretty much looked like his old self in all respects.
Donaldson is a fiery leader who would certainly light a spark for these or other organizations. He’s also going to hit the market carrying draft compensation as an added cost of signing him. That always must be factored into an open-market offer, though it’s perhaps of particular note for the Rangers and Phillies. The former team is arguably not quite ready for a full push for contention, though the new Texas field (synthetic though it may be) could desperately use some of the rain that Donaldson is wont to bring. As for the Phils, they’re putting out word that they’re loath to surrender more draft picks this offseason. There may be something to that, but it’s also plainly a wiser public statement than last winter’s unintentional slogan.
Reds Showing Interest In Didi Gregorius
The Reds have started off an important winter by showing interest in free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
Now 29 years of age, Gregorius spent his first five seasons as a professional with the Cincinnati organization and briefly debuted in the majors there in 2012. He ended up being traded away to the Diamondbacks and then on to the Yankees, where he established himself as a high-quality piece up the middle.
That’s not the only upper-tier free agent that has been linked to the Reds already this offseason — though others have been connected on a somewhat more speculative basis. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently highlighted backstop Yasmani Grandal as a possibility, writing that “all signs point toward a serious run” at securing his services. Young corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were also cited as possibilities.
MLBTR recently released its ranking of the top fifty free agents this winter. We predicted both Gregorius and Grandal to land with the Reds, banking on the organization to make good on its oft-stated intention to open the pocketbook up this winter.
Gregorius graded out as our 12th-best free agent. We toyed with the idea of guessing he’d settle for a one-year, make-good contract since he wasn’t in top form late in 2019 after returning from Tommy John surgery. But we ultimately guessed that he’d be able to secure a three-year contract. There are relatively few teams in obvious need of a regular shortstop, but there’s also a shortage of supply outside of Gregorius.
Braves Re-Sign Darren O’Day
The Braves have re-signed veteran reliever Darren O’Day, per a club announcement. He’ll receive a guarantee of $2.25MM in the contract, which covers the 2020 campaign and includes a $3.5MM club option for another season.
As other clubs plot roster turnover for the winter, the Braves have acted quickly to retain several pieces at the outset of the market. Backstop Tyler Flowers and Nick Markakis were already signed to new deals to remain in Atlanta for one more season, and they’ll now be joined by O’Day for a total outlay of just over $10MM in 2020 payroll.
O’Day, who recently celebrated his 37th birthday, was acquired at the 2018 trade deadline but didn’t appear with the Braves until September of 2019. He dealt with hamstring and forearm issues after coming over from the Orioles.
Though the Braves received only a brief look at the veteran reliever late in the season, he obviously impressed. O’Day was included on the postseason roster and appeared in four of the team’s NLDS contests. All told, he allowed just one earned run in 7 1/3 innings while compiling eight strikeouts against one free pass and four base hits.
O’Day averaged less than 87 mph with his fastball upon his return, though that’s actually only a tick lower than his career average. The sidearming hurler didn’t have any trouble getting swings and misses in that short sample, with an 18.0% swinging-strike rate in his 5 1/3 regular season frames. His full-season career-high in that metric is 14.8%, back in 2015.
It’s a fairly low-cost bet for the Braves, who’ll add O’Day to a high-leverage mix that already features Mark Melancon — another veteran hurler with exceptional command who has had stretches of dominance followed by some recent rough patches. It’d be too much to hope for these experienced righties to return to the levels of dominance they posted a few years back, but there’s good reason to believe there’s gas left in both tanks.
While fans may pine for a dominant closer, it may be that the Braves now consider their bullpen fully accounted for. The organization can tender Shane Greene and hope for a bounceback, while crossing its fingers that Luke Jackson can make the results match his newly eye-popping peripherals. Grant Dayton reemerged late to join Sean Newcomb as options from the left side. And there’s a laundry list of less-established hurlers that have seen recent MLB action and/or impressed of late in the upper minors.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.