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NL East Notes: Marlins, Callaway, Twins, Braves

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Some rumblings from around the NL East…

  • In the latest Marlins organizational news, the team hired Adrian Lorenzo as a special assistant in scouting and baseball operations, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via Twitter).  Lorenzo had previously been working as assistant director of international scouting for the Red Sox.  The Marlins also let go of pro scouting director Jim Cuthbert earlier this week, according to the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer (Twitter link), ending Cuthbert’s three-year tenure with the franchise.
  • These changes and the recent overhaul of the Marlins’ coaching staff are just the latest in an extensive front office reshuffle since Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman took over the team, and since Jeter hired Gary Denbo as Miami’s VP of player development and scouting.  While it isn’t unusual for new owners to put their personal stamp on a team, “people in baseball are just mystified by Denbo’s actions,” according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, and “morale in that organization, I’m told, is at an all-time low.”
  • Cafardo also discusses the Twins’ managerial search in his column, writing that Mets manager Mickey Callaway “would have been high on the Twins’ list if he were available.”  Callaway and Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey are familiar with each other from their shared time with the Indians, when Callaway was pitching coach and Falvey was working in the front office.  Of course, the chance still exists that Callaway could become available, as the next Mets GM will reportedly have the authority to make a managerial change.  Since the Twins’ search for a manager is already well under way, however, one would think the club wouldn’t wait under the Mets have made a hire and decided on Callaway’s fate.  Callaway’s first season with the Mets was a rocky one, though he is still under contract for two more years (plus a club option for the 2021 season).
  • Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is scheduled to meet with the media on Monday morning, with The Athletic’s David O’Brien (Twitter link) expecting that the team will announce a new contract for manager Brian Snitker and possibly some coaching changes.  Snitker’s previous deal is up after the World Series is over, though the team was expected to offer him another contract and it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations went rather quickly.  After all, Snitker did just lead the Braves to a somewhat surprising NL East title, and Snitker is a Braves lifer with over 40 years of experience in Atlanta’s organization.
  • Also from O’Brien (Twitter links), he thinks the Braves will probably have somewhere in the range of $30MM-$35MM to spend this winter.  The team has just over $90.8MM on the books for 2019 for current contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, give or take a few million less if Atlanta parts ways with any players on the non-tender bubble.  The Braves have never had an Opening Day payroll higher than their $122.6MM figure from 2017 since Liberty Media has owned the team, so one would figure they wouldn’t go too far beyond that number.  The club could also save some cash for midseason additions or, as O’Brien notes, use some money to sign in-house players to extensions.  Regardless, the Braves’ offseason promises to be a very interesting one, as the team makes it next step towards long-term contention now that the rebuild phase seems to be over.

Cardinals Notes: Wainwright, Clapp, Pitching

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It was on this day in 1985 that Jack Buck asked Cardinals fans to “Go crazy, folks! Go crazy!” in the wake of Ozzie Smith’s walkoff homer to win Game Five of the NLCS.  The Wizard Of Oz wasn’t known for his power, of course, though the defensive legend’s only career postseason home run (and, remarkably, the switch-hitting Smith’s first career homer as a left-handed batter) could hardly have come at a better time.  The victory gave the Cards a 3-2 lead in the series, and they clinched the National League pennant two days later at Dodger Stadium.

Here’s some modern-day buzz out of St. Louis…

  • The official details of Adam Wainwright’s new contract with the Cardinals won’t be known until after the World Series, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Wainwright will have to officially file for free agency before the deal is finalized, as league rules stipulate that a player currently on a team’s roster cannot re-sign for less than a 20% pay cut from their previous salary, and Wainwright’s new deal will obviously be far less than the $19.5MM he earned last year, in the final season of his five-year, $97.5MM contract.  His new deal is just a one-year pact, as Wainwright tells Goold that “I’m going to treat every year from here like it’s my last and go year to year.  I’m going to have a great time and maybe a year from now we’re having the same conversation or we’re having a retirement conversation.”  After being greatly limited by injuries in three of the last four seasons, Wainwright was greatly encouraged by how his elbow felt in some late-season appearances, and now feels ready for whatever role the team wants him to fill in 2019.  It’s clear that Wainwright is hoping to spend his entire baseball career in a Cardinals uniform, telling Goold “I wanted to do all I could to keep the door open with St. Louis. I was trying not to think about the possibility of going somewhere else. I didn’t want to go anywhere else.”
  • Stubby Clapp, manager of the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, has widely been mentioned as a possible candidate to be the next Blue Jays manager, though Clapp tells Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, “I haven’t heard anything from Toronto.  It’s been all rumors.”  Before taking over in Memphis in the 2016-17 offseason, Clapp spent the previous four seasons as a hitting coach in the Jays’ minor league system, so he has some ties to the organization.  The Windsor, Ontario native would also be the Jays’ first Canadian-born manager.  Even Clapp’s current duties carry some Blue Jays connections, as star prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing on the team Clapp is managing in the Arizona Fall League.  “If there’s an opportunity to get an interview or something like that, great, I’d be excited to do something like that,” Clapp said.  “Right now, I’m a Cardinal, that’s my focus and that’s where my mind is, and on taking care of these guys in Arizona.”
  • While the Cards have some uncertainty about their 2019 rotation, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch doesn’t consider starting pitching to be a top priority for the offseason.  Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Carlos Martinez look to have rotation jobs locked up for next year, while Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Daniel Poncedeleon, and John Gant are all in the mix for the final two slots.  While this group carries a lot of injury and experience questions, Frederickson figures there’s enough depth on hand that the Cardinals don’t need to add another arm unless a clear top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel can be had at a reasonable price.  The team’s more pressing needs are a left-handed bat for the lineup and more bullpen depth, the latter being particularly important given how successful teams around baseball are increasingly relying on strong bullpens to carry them into (and through) the postseason.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rockies, Phillies, Braves, Angels, Rays

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future

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Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.

Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.

2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.

The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.

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Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Beltway Notes: Nationals, Orioles, Mesas

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The Nationals may not have as much financial flexibility as it seems this offseason, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post observes. The Nationals have $112MM committed to 23 players for next season, Janes estimates, adding that MLBTR’s projected salaries for their seven arbitration-eligible players push the number to $152MM. However, for competitive balance tax purposes, that figure would be closer to $140MM, per Janes, who writes that Washington does “not want to come close” to the CBT in 2019. In the end, Janes expects the Nationals to spend around $180MM, which could include their top free agent – superstar outfielder Bryce Harper – whom they want to re-sign. Regardless of whether Harper stays in D.C., the club will still need help in several other areas, Janes points out. However, thanks to the money that’s already on the Nats’ books, Janes cautions that it’s going to be difficult for them to spend freely this winter.

Now the latest from Baltimore:

  • Even though the Orioles don’t have a true general manager at the moment, they “remain open to moving anyone in the right trade,” Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com writes. Front office questions aside, it’s unclear how many valuable trade chips Baltimore even has, given that it’s wrapping up a 47-win season in which it dealt a slew of established veterans. Reliever Mychal Givens would likely be in demand, and Kubatko cited him as a possible trade piece earlier this week.  Speculatively, middle infielder Jonathan Villar and right-hander Dylan Bundy are also among O’s who may find themselves in trade rumors this offseason.
  • The Orioles, who have more international money available than any other team, are known to be battling with the Marlins for Cuban prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr. and Sandy Gaston. While it has been suggested that the Mesa brothers will sign with the same team, they’re not necessarily a package deal, Kubatko reports, writing that the two “aren’t joined at the hip.”
  • The Orioles made an eyebrow-raising move in August when they traded $750K in international money to the Phillies for minor league first baseman Jack Zoellner. It turns out the Phillies may have released Zoellner had they not found a taker for him, according to Kubatko. Per Kubatko, Philly was “far less enthusiastic about Zoellner” than Baltimore’s front office, which was then led by since-fired GM Dan Duquette. Zoellner doesn’t rank among Baltimore’s top 30 prospects at MLB.com, and, as Kubatko notes, didn’t stand out in Rookie ball from 2017-18 despite being old for the level.

Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters

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Major League Baseball’s postseason has shrunk to four teams, meaning we’re only a few weeks away from the opening of free agency. As always, some pending free-agent hitters are coming off excellent seasons in terms of bottom-line results, while others posted uninspiring production in platform years. Thanks to the introduction of Statcast (via Baseball Savant) a few years ago, we now have a better idea of which players deserved their results from this past regular season. With that in mind, using two Statcast metrics – expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls – we’ll take a look at the top pending FA hitters at each position. These numbers don’t factor in a batter’s age, handedness, his defense or his expected asking price, of course, but they give a better idea of what kind of season he’s coming off as a hitter as he heads to free agency.

(Note: We’re going with exit velo on liners/fly balls as a way to take grounders out of the equation, as they’re simply less valuable than air balls.)

Catchers:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Yasmani Grandal – .345 (real wOBA: .352)
  2. Wilson Ramos – .342 (.362)
  3. Kurt Suzuki – .331 (.335)
  4. A.J. Ellis – .327 (.325)
  5. Matt Wieters – .313 (.308); Nick Hundley – .313 (.304)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Wilson Ramos – 95.4 mph
  2. Yasmani Grandal – 94.5
  3. A.J. Ellis – 93.5
  4. Matt Wieters, Nick Hundley and Jeff Mathis – 92.2
  5. Devin Mesoraco – 92.1

No surprise that Ramos and Grandal are the main Statcast standouts at this position. They’ll be the two top regulars on the market, after all, with Grandal likely to rake in the bigger contract. It helps in Grandal’s case that, in addition to his offensive prowess, he’s regarded as a quality defender – gaffes in Game 1 of the NLCS aside.

First basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Steve Pearce – .398 (real wOBA: .382)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Joe Mauer – .355 (.319)
  4. Danny Valencia – .349 (.310)
  5. Logan Morrison – .339 (.284)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Joe Mauer – 94.9 mph
  2. Steve Pearce – 94.7
  3. Matt Adams – 94.6
  4. Danny Valencia and Logan Morrison – 94.5
  5. Hanley Ramirez – 94.2

If a team’s looking for a full-time starting first baseman in free agency, it’s probably not going to find one. But at least a couple of the above hitters – namely, Pearce and Freese (if the Dodgers decline his $6MM club option, which is far from certain) – could once again serve as eminently useful part-timers in 2019. Mauer might have had a much better year than his league-average production indicates, meanwhile, though the 35-year-old Twins icon may call it a career in lieu of pursuing another contract.

Second basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Daniel Murphy – .345 (real wOBA: .338)
  2. Daniel Descalso – .333 (.341); Neil Walker – .333 (.292)
  3. Jed Lowrie – .332 (.348)
  4. DJ LeMahieu – .325 (.323)
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. DJ LeMahieu – 93.2
  4. Neil Walker – 92.4
  5. Daniel Descalso 92.3

The second base market is loaded with familiar names, but the majority of those players are fresh off underwhelming offensive seasons in terms of actual production. The above Statcast numbers aren’t exactly excellent, either, but Walker looks like a player who could serve as an interesting buy-low candidate over the winter. Walker went without a contract until last March, putting him behind the 8-ball immediately and helping lead to a brutal start with the Yankees. He settled in at the plate as the year went on, however, and ended up seeing quite a bit of time at four positions (second, first, third and right field).

Shortstops:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera – .322 (.332)
  3. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)
  4. Eduardo Escobar – .319 (.346)
  5. Jordy Mercer – .314 (.297)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Manny Machado – 95.1 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. Freddy Galvis – 91.8
  4. Eduardo Escobar – 90.8
  5. Jordy Mercer – 90.7

Perhaps you’ve heard of the 26-year-old Machado, who’s weeks from signing one of the richest deals in the history of the game. He packs a wallop at the plate, as Statcast helps illustrate. Other than Machado, Escobar and Gonzalez – who didn’t have a great offensive season but is a switch-hitter capable of playing a few positions –  free agency’s not brimming with appealing shortstop options. Of course, that’s assuming the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus doesn’t opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract.

Third basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Mike Moustakas – .339 (.329)
  4. Josh Donaldson – .333 (.345)
  5. Adrian Beltre – .329 (.327)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Josh Donaldson – 96.3 mph
  2. Manny Machado – 95.1
  3. Pablo Sandoval – 94.3
  4. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4

Even during an injury-limited season, one which nearly destroyed his trade value and won’t do him any favors in free agency, Donaldson was a notable threat the plate. The 32-year-old still packs a punch – as does the oft-maligned Sandoval (also 32), apparently.

Outfielders:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Bryce Harper – .386 (real wOBA: .376)
  2. Michael Brantley – .362 (.359)
  3. Andrew McCutchen – .355 (.347)
  4. Nick Markakis – .348 (.345)
  5. Curtis Granderson – .341 (.342)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Bryce Harper – 96.3 mph
  2. Jose Bautista – 95.3
  3. Andrew McCutchen – 94.1
  4. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  5. Matt Joyce – 92.8

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Harper will join Machado during the offseason in signing a historic contract. Unsurprisingly, Harper finished top two among all pending free agents in each of the categories we’re using here. For teams that can’t afford him, there will be some established, offensively capable corner outfielders available, as seen above. No one from that group is an ideal center field option, though, and there won’t be many available in free agency. The obvious exception is the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, who recorded a .326 xwOBA (compared to a .338 real-life mark) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity on liners and fly balls in 2018. He also posted six Outs Above Average as a defender, per Statcast, making him the best soon-to-be free-agent outfielder in that metric’s view. By the way, Harper (minus-12) and McCutchen (minus-11) were each in the bottom six among all outfielders in OAA in 2018.

Finally, for teams in the market for a pure designated hitter, we’d be remiss not to mention Nelson Cruz. Despite his age (38), Cruz is still a superb offensive player. He placed seventh in the majors in xwOBA (.394, easily beating out his real mark of .361) and in a 13th-place tie with NL MVP hopeful Christian Yelich in average exit velo on liners/fly balls (97.2 mph).

Quick Hits: Yanks, Bucs, Cole, Andujar, Mets, Stearns, Hillman

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It’s already known that the Yankees pursued a trade for right-hander Gerrit Cole last winter before the Pirates ultimately sent him to the Astros in mid-January. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post sheds more light on the talks between the Yankees and Pirates, reporting that the Bucs wanted both outfielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Miguel Andujar in exchange for Cole. The Yankees were willing to part with Frazier, as was previously reported, but weren’t on board with adding Andujar to the package. Consequently, the Pirates chose the Astros’ four-player offer, one which yielded modest returns in 2018. Cole has enjoyed an ace-caliber season in Houston, meanwhile, and concussion issues prevented Frazier from making a big league impact this year. Whether Cole would have performed similarly had he gone to New York is anyone’s guess, of course, and the Yankees can take solace in knowing they made out well by keeping Andujar. The 23-year-old’s a strong candidate for top rookie honors in the American League after slashing .298/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) with 76 extra-base hits – including 27 home runs and an AL rookie record-tying 47 doubles – en route to 2.7 fWAR.

More from around the game…

  • There’s uncertainty in the Mets’ search for a new head of baseball operations, Mike Puma of the New York Post hears. It’s possible the Mets will tab both a president of baseball ops and a general manager, but club officials have gone back and forth on that lately and are leaning toward hiring only one person, Puma reports. Moreover, the Mets remain unsure whether to tab an old-school or new-school mind for the role, per Puma.
  • The Mets had now-successful Brewers GM David Stearns under their employ as an intern a decade ago, Tim Healey of Newsday notes, pointing out that Stearns is a Manhattan native who grew up rooting for the Amazins. During his short time with the Mets, their baseball department – led by then-GM Omar Minaya – “badly wanted to hire” Stearns on a full-time basis, according to Healey. However, they couldn’t get approval on adding another full-time position from owner Fred Wilpon and COO Jeff Wilpon, Healey relays. Stearns went on to a few other jobs elsewhere before becoming the Brewers’ GM in September 2015. No one knows where Stearns would be now had he risen to a more prominent role with the Mets all those years ago, but it’s an interesting what-if.
  • Trey Hillman announced Saturday that he’ll step down as the manager of SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization after the season, citing family reasons, the Yonhap News Agency reports. Hillman left his post as the Astros’ bench coach in 2016 to immigrate to South Korea, where he has led the Wyverns to back-to-back playoff berths. The 55-year-old is likely best known for his stint as the manager of the Royals from 2008-10. Kansas City went 152-207 under Hillman, whose reign directly preceded the ongoing Ned Yost era.

Yankees Notes: Corbin, Sabathia, Payroll

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A few notes on the Yankees, whom the archrival Red Sox eliminated from the postseason earlier this week:

  • It’s “expected” that the Yankees will go after left-hander Patrick Corbin in free agency, sources tell Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s notable but not surprising that the Yankees may pursue Corbin, as they’re in need of quality starters and he’ll be among the best on the open market. Further, the Bombers attempted to acquire Corbin last winter, and the New York state native explained to Bob Nightengale of USA Today in April that the rumors “excited” his Yankees-loving family. Regardless of where Corbin pitches in 2019, he figures to do so after receiving one of the richest contracts awarded during the upcoming offseason. The 29-year-old, a career-long Diamondback to this point, is coming off a personal-best season in which he logged a 3.15 ERA/2.47 FIP with 11.07 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 over 200 innings.
  • While Corbin may soon end up a Yankee, “it would appear” they’ll say goodbye to fellow pending free-agent starter CC Sabathia, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Heyman passes along different information, writing that a reunion “hasn’t necessarily been ruled out.” A Yankee since 2009, the potential Hall of Famer would be difficult to replace both on and off the field for the Bombers, with whom he turned in another fine season in 2018. Despite his age (he turned 38 in July), the big lefty posted a 3.65 ERA across 153 innings. ERA estimators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA haven’t been as bullish on Sabathia’s work in recent years, though he’s so difficult to square up against that it has enabled him to defy serious regression. Sabathia finished fifth among all pitchers in average exit velocity against (84 mph) this past regular season, per Statcast. Because he’s still such an effective starter, Sabathia has made it known he’ll resume his career in 2019. While he did just undergo knee surgery Friday, it doesn’t seem as if it’ll affect Sabathia’s outlook heading into next year.
  • For the first time in 15 years, the Yankees stayed under the luxury-tax threshold this season, David Lennon of Newsday notes. That means if the Yankees exceed the $206MM figure in 2019 (up from $197MM this year), they’ll pay a 20 percent tax for every dollar spent over the mark, as opposed to 50 percent. On paper, that puts them in better position to pursue top free agents such as Corbin, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. But it’s not a slam dunk the Yankees – led by owner Hal Steinbrenner – will spend in excess of $206MM next year, as general manager Brian Cashman told Lennon on Friday: “I don’t want to speak for Hal, but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us. It was mission accomplished in terms of the payroll this year, and taking away advantages that teams have been getting from us because we were exceeding those thresholds.” Cashman added, though, that he believes Steinbrenner’s “a very open-minded person” with respect to spending, perhaps leaving the door open for some big-money moves.

Poll: Will The Yankees Sign Manny Machado?

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This has been the week from hell for the Yankees, whose season ended Tuesday at the hands of the hated Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Boston summarily disposed of the Yankees in four games, further cementing itself as the superior team in 2018 after it won the AL East with ease in the regular season, finishing with a 108-54 record to New York’s 100-62 mark. To make matters worse, the Yankees learned Friday that they’ll play a large portion of 2019 without one of their most valuable players, shortstop Didi Gregorius, who needs Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. Only two of the Yankees’ position players posted a higher fWAR this year than Gregorius, who recorded a 4.6 mark in 569 plate appearances to rank eighth among big league shortstops.

Now, with the Red Sox potentially on their way to a fourth World Series title since 2004 and the Yankees having been dealt a brutal blow well before 2019 begins, the question is: How will the Evil Empire strike back? Well, if the Yankees plan to go big-game hunting in free agency – as they’ve done on many occasions – perhaps they’ll respond by signing the Dodgers’ Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star infielder, 26, is set to hit the open market, where he’s sure to become one of the highest-paid players in the history of the sport.

Even with a healthy Gregorius, New York would’ve been a speculated suitor for Machado, whom it chased at this past summer’s trade deadline before the AL East rival Orioles dealt him to the Dodgers. With Gregorius in the fold, Machado likely would have slotted in at third base in 2019, sending AL Rookie of the Year Candidate Miguel Andujar to first base or designated hitter. Andujar’s on the heels of a huge season offensively, but he was a butcher at third, finishing last among major league infielders in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-25) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-16). Despite Andujar’s woeful season in the field, he may well remain at third next year if the Yankees add Machado, considering both Gregorius’ health and Machado’s preference to line up at short.

For the majority of his career, which began in 2012, Machado has played third, where he has been eminently successful. Machado has registered 84 Defensive Runs Saved and a 50.6 UZR at the position, while he has logged minus-10 DRS at short and a minus-6.1 UZR at shortstop, with all of the damage having come this past regular season (minus-12 DRS, minus-6.5 UZR) after he moved back to short. In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Machado served as one of the majors’ preeminent players in 2018, notching the game’s ninth-highest fWAR among position players (6.2) on the strength of his fourth straight 30-home run campaign. He’d give the Yankees’ already strong offense yet another formidable hitter, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Andujar, though the right-handed Machado wouldn’t provide the right-heavy lineup variety in terms of handedness.

Speaking of Torres, the Yankees may simply turn short over to him next year as they await Gregorius’ return and entrust the keystone to a far less expensive alternative to Machado. There are plenty of familiar veteran second basemen set to hit free agency in the offseason, including now-Yankee Neil Walker, though no one from the group is anywhere near the caliber of Machado.

For now, Machado and the still-alive Dodgers are focused on winning a championship, but it seems doubtful he’ll return to LA thereafter. The club has an excellent third baseman in Justin Turner and a great shortstop in Corey Seager, who missed most of 2018 on account of TJ surgery, after all. Thus, regardless of how the Dodgers’ season ends, it seems Machado’s destined to put on a new uniform in 2019. Do you expect New York to be the team that awards him one of the richest contracts in the history of baseball in the offseason, or will someone else win the much-anticipated derby?

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Muncy, Voit, O’Hearn, Spin Rates, Astros

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In one of the most statistically improbable turnarounds in recent memory, Dodgers 1B/2B/3B/OF Max Muncy, he of the .195/.290/.321 line across 245 plate appearances in parts of two seasons for Oakland, broke out in the biggest of ways for Los Angeles this season, slamming 35 home runs in just 395 AB and posting a .263/.391/.582 mark that stood as one of the National League’s best.  Yankees 1B Luke Voit, a footnote trade deadline acquisition in ’18, posted an even more impressive (albeit in a much smaller sample) 187 wRC+ in 161 PA down the stretch for the Bombers this season.  And Royals 1B Ryan O’Hearn, who’d slumped badly in parts of two seasons at Triple-A Omaha before his promotion this summer, shocked the organization by dropping a .262/.353/.597 mark across 170 PA for Kansas City in the second half.  In a fascinating look at their respective backgrounds, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper (subscription required) revisits the trio’s unheralded prospect days, when the three seemed to register only mildly on the wide-ranging radar of professional scouts.  All three, it appears, were hampered by the 2011 NCAA-mandated switch from aluminum bats to composite, with Voit in particular banging just 19 career HR across four seasons at Missouri State (a school which, notably, has produced a glut of big leaguers, including Ryan Howard, over the last two decades).  Though none of the three were highly regarded in their respective organizations prior to the breakouts, and sustained production at their 2018 levels seems virtually impossible, it should be noted that a number of players have shown immediate power spikes upon their promotion to MLB of late, and both Muncy (.392) and Voit (.440, best in the league among players with at least 150 PA) rate quite favorably in Statcast’s xWOBA metric.

In other bits of interest from around the league . . .

  • FiveThirtyEight’s Travis Sawchik launches far into the spin-rate galaxy in a delightfully data-heavy piece packed with informative bits.  Though the spin-rate data is still young, and ever-conservative analysts caution against drawing too heavily from its many layers, certain teams appear to be drilling in earnest: Sawchik cites the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams who’ve seen significant jumps in the four-seam fastball version of the metric since the advent of the data, taking particular care to address the case of Gerrit Cole, whose resurgent season coincided with a jump of over 200 rpms in his four-seamer from 2017.  Still, traditional analytic bastions Oakland and Tampa Bay have each seen a decrease in overall spin-rate on the fastball over the same frame, so perhaps the aforementioned uptick is little more than coincidence.  The article, which also features a good deal of commentary and speculation from outspoken Indians hurler Trevor Bauer, is well worth a full read for all.
  • The Astros, who revamped their organization with a heavy emphasis on raw data and wall-to-wall granularity, also care deeply about the team’s culture, writes Jayson Stark of The Athletic. GM Jeff Luhnow came to Houston from St. Louis, which Stark describes as ’obsessed’ with the culture of the team, and has apparently taken great strides to ensure the Astros “operate as a cohesive unit.” “We spend a lot of time,” Luhnow said. “Clubbies [clubhouse men] talk to clubbies. Trainers talk to trainers. Front offices talk to front offices. Players talk to players. You can always find a player who was with that team last year who is no longer with them, who somebody with the organization knows. Information crosses boundaries very rapidly.”  The piece is rife with further quotes from Luhnow and analysis from Stark, who cites Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann as players who were acquired for more than just their on-field abilities.

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