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Reactions To And Effects Of The Yu Darvish Deal

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It took over three months, but the premier free agent in this year’s class finally came off the board Saturday. Right-hander Yu Darvish agreed to join the Cubs on a six-year, $126MM guarantee that includes an opt-out clause after 2019. As you’d expect, a bevy of media reactions to the agreement have come in over the course of the day. Here’s a look at several…

  • When the offseason began in November, Darvish “wasn’t really” on Chicago’s radar, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports on Twitter. However, it seems the Cubs benefited from this winter’s slow-moving free-agent market in this case, as it helped lead to a lower-than-expected price tag for Darvish and a major splash for the North Siders. Darvish went into the winter seeking an accord along the lines of Stephen Strasburg’s (seven years, $175MM) or new teammate Jon Lester’s (six years, $155MM), Patrick Mooney of The Athletic details (subscription required).
  • While there’s a well-known fondness between Darvish and the Rangers, with whom he has spent the majority of his career, Texas was “not even close” to landing him, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram hears. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News adds that Texas didn’t make an offer to Darvish, and the club wouldn’t even have been willing to guarantee him $75MM in total if it did. The Rangers have a glaring need for a front-end starter, but they’re not close enough to contention to splurge on one, Grant writes. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who has a good relationship with Darvish, spoke highly of the 31-year-old on Saturday. “I am very happy for Yu and hope he gets everything he wants,” Daniels said (via Wilson). “He will go down as one of the best pitchers in Rangers history. I expect he’s going to be very good wherever he goes.”
  • The Dodgers, Darvish’s other ex-team, made him an offer, but it fell short of the Cubs’, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times report. Contrarily, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets that LA was “said to have offered in the same ballpark” as Chicago. Although, signing Darvish would have made it difficult for the Dodgers to achieve their goal of staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018.
  • Likewise, tax concerns stood in the way of a Yankees-Darvish union. New York never even made Darvish an offer, Rosenthal tweets.
  • The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.
  • The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
  • In addition to the previously listed Twins and Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies are still targeting starters in the wake of the Darvish deal, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. Philadelphia is aggressively pursuing a short-term addition, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas are all possibilities, Feinsand adds.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) has mixed feelings on the Darvish pact. While it “appears to be a bargain salary,” Law has reservations about the length, contending that it’s one or two years too long, and he doesn’t regard Darvish “a pure ace.” Darvish has become too reliant on his cutter and not reliant enough on his slider, which has led to vulnerability against left-handed hitters, Law observes. However, Darvish may have “some untapped potential right now” if he leans more on his slider, per Law, who at least sees him as a significant near-term upgrade for the Cubs.

Marlins, Astros Discussing J.T. Realmuto

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Count the reigning World Series champion Astros among the most serious suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. Houston and Miami have discussed the backstop, according to SiriusXM’s Craig Mish, who adds that the Marlins have requested high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker in return. The Astros haven’t ruled out dealing Tucker, Mish reports (Twitter link).

Realmuto would be the second major trade acquisition of the winter for the Astros, who previously dipped into their pool of young talent to pick up right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Despite that move, the Astros’ farm system remains in the majors’ top 10, according to Baseball America, which regards the 21-year-old Tucker as their second-best prospect and the majors’ 15th-ranked farmhand. MLB.com (No. 8) FanGraphs (No. 10), Baseball Prospectus (No. 20) and ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 21) also think highly of the lefty-swinging Tucker, who ascended to the Double-A level in 2017 and slashed .265/.325/.512 across 318 plate appearances.

Should the Marlins land Tucker, he’d become arguably the premier prospect in a system that has climbed from dead last to 19th in Baseball America’s rankings since the beginning of the offseason. Of course, the Marlins’ improved farm is the result of an aggressive major league teardown that has come during a payroll-slashing campaign by new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. The Marlins have already dealt star outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, not to mention second baseman Dee Gordon, leaving Realmuto as the face of a team that seems unlikely to contend in the near future.

The 26-year-old Realmuto, sensing Miami is more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth in 2018, has made it known he’d like to follow Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna and Gordon out the door. Given that he wants to play for a contender, going to Houston would surely satisfy Realmuto, and it would give the club a potential long-term solution behind the plate. While the Astros got solid production from catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis in 2017, the two 30-somethings could become free agents next winter. Moreover, Gattis will primarily occupy the DH spot this year, leaving the unproven, out-of-options Max Stassi as the Astros’ projected No. 2 catcher.

Unlike Stassi, Realmuto has done plenty to establish himself in the majors. He truly broke out in 2016 and has since accounted for 7.2 fWAR, trailing only the Giants’ Buster Posey and the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez in that category among catchers. Most of Realmuto’s value has come from his bat, as the righty-swinger combined for a quality .290/.337/.440 line across 1,124 plate appearances from 2016-17.

While there have been questions about Realmuto’s defense (his reviews as a pitch framer have been mixed), both his bat and long-term affordability combine to make him extremely valuable, which has led to offseason interest from contenders such as the Astros and Nationals. Realmuto is set to play his first of three potential arbitration-eligible seasons in 2018, during which he’ll make a relatively modest $2.9MM.

Braves Defeat Mike Foltynewicz In Arbitration

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Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has lost his arbitration case against the Braves, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. He’ll take home $2.2MM in 2018, his first of four potential arbitration years, falling just short of the $2.3MM he requested. The salary comes in $500K shy of the $2.7MM figure projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.

The defeat for the 26-year-old Foltynewicz comes on the heels of his third season with the Braves, who acquired him in 2015 as part of a deal with the Astros that centered on Evan Gattis. A former promising prospect in Houston, the hard-throwing Foltynewicz has emerged as a competent rotation piece with the Braves over the past couple years. Dating back to 2016, the 6-foot-4, 220-pounder has made 51 appearances (50 starts) and pitched to a 4.58 ERA/4.29 FIP over 277 1/3 innings. He tossed a career-high 154 frames in 2017 and recorded a 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP, 8.36 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9.

Now that Folty’s case is settled, the Braves’ work on the arbitration front is done for the offseason, as MLBTR’s Arb Tracker shows.

A’s Defeat Kendall Graveman In Arbitration

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Kendall Graveman has lost his arbitration case against the Athletics, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports via Twitter. Though he filed for $2.6MM in his first trip through the arb process (which incidentally also happened to be what MLBTR’s arbitration model projected for him), he’ll instead make the $2.3MM salary that Oakland filed for.

The 27-year-old ground ball artist came to Oakland as one of the pieces in the trade that sent Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays. He’s owns a career ERA of 4.11 across 411 2/3 major league innings spanning 71 starts with Oakland and five relief appearances for Toronto. His lifetime record stands at 22-24.

Likely working against Graveman in the arbitration process is his lack of strikeouts. The righty’s K/9 over the past three seasons with the A’s stands at a paltry 5.64, a figure that ranks fourth-worst in baseball among qualified pitchers during that time span. Of course, he made up for that somewhat by posting a 51.3% ground ball rate that falls within MLB’s top 20. But arbitration panels don’t take that into account the way they do strikeouts.

Graveman’s case was Oakland’s only one to go to trial. Now that it’s been settled, the team’s arbitration salaries are all fully resolved for the 2018 season.

Marlins Notes: Realmuto, Chen, Ziegler, Outfield, Starlin

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Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto told reporters today that he’s had multiple conversations with president of baseball operations Michael Hill and manager Don Mattingly about whether or not he’ll be traded, but he hasn’t gotten a firm answer one way or the other (hat tip to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). He also said that he has not spoken with part-owner Derek Jeter directly about the subject. That Realmuto hasn’t gotten a firm answer is entirely unsurprising; he’s a valuable trade asset, and the team can’t guarantee that anyone will rise to meet their asking price. They’ve been fielding offers on him for quite some time, and the countdown to opening day has now dwindled to under two months. Realmuto, of course, has been vocal throughout the offseason in his desire to be traded to another club. It was reported that the backstop requested a trade out Miami as early as mid-December, at which point the Fish had already shipped out Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna. Recent comments from his agent indicate that his stance hasn’t changed, and an arbitration defeat at Miami’s hands certainly won’t do anything to budge that stance.

A few other items out of Miami…

  • Hill says that lefty Wei-Yin Chen has been cleared to throw, and projects to be in the Marlins’ rotation (h/t Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). Whether or not he’ll be ready for the start of the season is uncertain. The 32-year-old Chen missed the bulk of last season due to recurring elbow issues, and is owed $60MM through the 2020 season. If he can remain healthy, he’ll likely slot in as the number two starter behind Dan Straily.
  • Hill also mentioned that Brad Ziegler is the team’s closer headed into spring training camp. Ziegler took over as the team’s closer last season following a trade of A.J. Ramos to the Mets, saving ten games for the club. His overall performance, however, left much to be desired; the soft-tosser’s 4.79 ERA isn’t indicative of a high-leverage reliever, and his 4.98 K/9 was the fourth-lowest among MLB relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. However, having Ziegler in a ninth-inning role will prevent young strikeout artists Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider from accruing saves that would otherwise boost their future arbitration raises.
  • Mattingly has Derek Dietrich “penciled in” as the starting left fielder (h/t Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald). The rest of the outfield picture, however, is “wide open.” The Marlins, of course, traded their entire starting outfield from last season; Stanton, Ozuna and Christian Yelich will all suit up for other clubs, leaving the team with a significant void to fill. Count recent outfield acquisitions Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra among the players who will compete for those jobs in camp.
  • Despite trade speculation earlier in the offseason, infielder Starlin Castro says he expects to be with the club come opening day (hat tip again to Jackson). The former Yankee adds that he is “happy to be here,” and is not looking to be traded now. Castro figures to open the season as the team’s second baseman. He put up a .300/.338/.454 slash line while playing for New York last season (good for a 110 wRC+), and chipped in a pair of stolen bases.

Quick Hits: Asia Prospects, Former Prospects, DL Usage

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Fangraphs analysis is as sharp and poignant as ever, providing deep looks into a number of interesting subjects over the past few days. Among those pieces is one by Sung Min Kim, who offers detailed scouting reports on six MLB prospects currently playing in Asia. The list is limited to players who would be available to leave Asia in the next three years; players on the list have also either expressed interest in coming to MLB or not publicly refuted the possibility. Among these six players is Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty fireballer who has openly expressed a strong desire to play in MLB (Kim compares him to Patrick Corbin). Another interesting name on the list is outfielder Po-Jung Wang of the Chinese Professional Baseball League; he’s won two MVPs and put up a .407/.491/.700 slash line in the CPBL. Anyone interested in tracking baseball players who might transition from Asia leagues to MLB should certainly give this list a thorough read.

A couple of other interesting articles from Fangraphs…

  • Eric Longenhagen did some scouting of his own for his latest piece, though he focused on players who have already cracked a major-league roster. Specifically, Longenhagen has notes on twelve players who have already graduated from prospect status but have somewhat uncertain futures and only a small sample size of MLB playing time to draw from. Astros righty Francis Martes, for example, is described as a player who is “athletic enough to merit command projection in the minors, but we haven’t seen him need to work efficiently for a while because he was bullpen’d last year.” New Cardinals addition Miles Mikolas is said to have improved command after a stint in Japan, and currently profiles as a solid fourth starter. The list has some interesting names who haven’t been frequently covered, and can provide avid fans with a few intriguing storylines to follow for the coming season.
  • Many aspects of MLB gameplay are changing at a rapid pace. One of the more extreme examples is DL usage, which Travis Sawchik covered recently. Last year’s switch from a 15-day DL to a 10-day DL resulted in a record number of DL stints, as predicted. Clubs like the Dodgers used it aggressively as a roster manipulation tool, making it “something of a revolving, de facto 26th-man roster spot.” Sawchik expects that we’ll see an increase in the number of DL stints once again next year. He also notes that even with the five-day reduction from 15 to 10, there was only a marginal decrease in the total number of days players spent on the DL last season, which perhaps implies that players overall were not very healthy in 2017.

West Notes: A’s, Rangers, Bumgarner

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While it’s been somewhat of a surprise to see some large market teams not spending the way they usually do, this offseason isn’t different from any other for small-market teams like the Athletics. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, low payrolls have long been “modus operandi” for the A’s, and now much of baseball is under fire for following suit. “I can’t speak for other teams, but I know for us, this scenario is not much different than it’s been for a number of years as we push for a new stadium,” Oakland Vice President of Baseball Operations Billy Beane said. He added that the scenario is individual for each team, but for the A’s it comes down to simply not having the resources. While some are accusing MLB clubs of a “race to the bottom,” Slusser notes that youth-centric rebuilds with focus on prospects and the draft helped lead the Royals, Cubs and Astros to World Series titles in the past three seasons. Indeed, Beane said, “I’m sure that’s part of it. Sports is very copycat: Whatever succeeds, people will try.” The Athletics signed Yusmiero Petit to a two-year, $10MM contract this offseason, and also made offers to Brian Duensing and Austin Jackson before they ultimately signed with other clubs. Now, says Slusser, the A’s offseason spending is “essentially done.”

Other notes from teams near the country’s Pacific coast…

  • Evan Grant of SportsDay dives into the questions that the Rangers will need to answer if they choose to implement a six-man rotation this season (or as manager Jeff Banister calls it, a “five-plus-one” rotation). The basic structure: have five starters who pitch regularly, and utilize a sixth pitcher as a swingman to pitch only when necessary to ensure that each pitcher gets five days off between starts. The ultimate hope is that such a configuration will keep all Rangers pitchers fresh and reduce late-season fatigue. “The schedule makes it challenging. Construction of your roster makes it challenging,” said Banister. “There is enough data that tells us there are pitchers who definitely benefit from an extra day’s rest or the routine of being on that five-day rest period or six-day rest period. You can point to ERAs. You can point to velocity. You can point to walk rates go down, strike out rates go up.” There are significant challenges in bringing this idea into reality, however. First, it’s a pretty radical change from what MLB pitchers are used to doing, and what they’ve been trained to do during their entire careers. Second, they’d need to find enough pitchers to make it a viable strategy, and the Rangers’ starting staff has more questions than answers at the moment.
  • Giants GM Bobby Evans says that there haven’t been any contract talks between the club and postseason titan Madison Bumgarner, according to a tweet from John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Bumgarner has long been the ace of the Giants’ pitching staff. He was drafted by the organization and has never played for another. MadBum’s posted a 3.01 ERA (3.34 xFIP) over the course of his eight-year MLB career with 8.84 K/9 against just 2.04 BB/9. The Giants own a 2019 club option over the towering lefty for a mere $12MM, so they’ll be able to control him through his age-29 campaign before he hits the open market during the 2019-2020 offseason (barring an extension).

AL East Notes: Neander, Rays Stadium, Hicks, Jays

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Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes an interesting look at how Erik Neander came to land atop the Rays’ baseball operations department. Neander took an unusual path to his current position, with data providing his hook into the Tampa Bay baseball operations department — but only after a lot of hustle. At MLBTR, we often field emails and chat questions about how to break into the business; perhaps this article serves as something of a guide for what kind of effort it might take, even if you do have ability to go with the passion.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • While Neander will do all he can to squeeze value out of limited payroll resources, the Rays’ ongoing stadium efforts remain critical to the organization’s long-term viability. On the heels of recent news that the club has settled on a preferred site, Topkin and others at the TB Times have compiled a comprehensive look at the current state of play surrounding the proposed site in Tampa Bay’s Ybor City. Those with interest in the subject will need to read the full post for its many details; suffice to say that a variety of challenges still lay ahead to convert this idea into reality.
  • Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks says he’s coming to camp with sights set on winning a starting job in center, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. The 28-year-old unquestionably impressed in 2017, with a surprising .266/.372/.475 batting line and 15 home runs. Of course, that’s the first time the switch-hitter has posted above-average offensive production and he has still yet to top four hundred plate appearances (due to performance issues and, more recently, injuries) in a given season. Plus, the Yankees have to consider Jacoby Ellsbury, who isn’t likely to find time playing in the corners with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on hand along with Brett Gardner. It’s certainly still possible that the Yanks will clarify the roster logjam before the start of the season. If not, though, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Ellsbury will at least take a fair amount of time against right-handed pitchers. (While Ellsbury has long thrived against righties, Hicks has traditionally been better against southpaws.)
  • John Lott of The Athletic examines the seven recent PED suspensions doled out to Blue Jays Latin American farmhands in a subscription-only post. Of course, there are lots of difficult issues surrounding this subject, due in large part to the difficult incentive system facing these young players. In the case of the Toronto prospects, they were caught using the kinds of unsophisticated substances that MLB deputy commissioner Dan Halem says are easy to detect. Of course, this isn’t a problem facing only the Blue Jays. The Latin American signing and development system, which typically involves so-called buscones and very youthful players, has long been riddled with problems.

Free Agent Notes: LoMo, Phillies, Rangers, Giants

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Logan Morrison remains one of quite a few players still waiting for a new contract after a strong 2017 season. Just where he’ll fit remains unclear. The Red Sox have had contact with Morrison’s reps, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (via Twitter), though he seems mostly to be a backup plan as Boston continues to try to work things out with J.D. Martinez. It probably doesn’t help that the Sox already added a lefty-hitting first baseman this winter in Mitch Moreland, but both players could surely coexist on the roster with a DH slot still open and the right-handed-hitting Hanley Ramirez available to share time at both spots.

  • We’ve long heard of the Royals as an interesting possibility for LoMo, as Morrison hails from the Kansas City area and the team may well have a notable opening if Eric Hosmer departs. Of course, the Royals are still hoping to land Hosmer at the moment. But if that changes, sources suggest to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link), Morrison would be very interested in talking with his hometown team. From an outside perspective, it seems unlikely that the Royals will dedicate a huge amount of cash for any non-Hosmer free agent. Then again, there could be a nice value opportunity here, particularly since Morrison ought to be an easy player to market at an opportune moment for the franchise.
  • The Phillies’ search for a starter remains a bit of a wild card on the market. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand has the latest, citing sources for the proposition that the Phils are taking an “aggressive” approach, though it’s not entirely clear what that means. While the organization has been tied, at least speculatively, to a wide variety of hurlers, the indication from Feinsand is that the organization is mostly looking currently at one-year targets rather than more significant hurlers. As Feinsand notes, it’s possible to imagine quite a few names that could conceivably fit. Indeed, many of the free agent starters remain available, so a Phillies team in an opportunistic position could yet take any number of different courses in filling out its staff.
  • Speaking of teams with some reputed interest in high-end pitching, the Rangers have long been said to have at least a foot in the premium pool even as they have signed a variety of hurlers to manageable deals. GM Jon Daniels says the door is still open, at least a bit, to making free-agent splash, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports. “I don’t think we can rule it out,” says Daniels, who also made clear that a major new addition isn’t particularly likely. As for what the slow movement means, Daniels says that’s still an open question. “I don’t think anybody has ever been in this position,” he said. “I’m not sure anybody knows what to expect.”
  • While the Giants have little spending space if they are to remain beneath the luxury line, that makes minor-league signings all the more important for the organization. Per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter), the club will put eyes on former ace Tim Lincecum when he holds a planned showcase. Likewise, the San Francisco front office will scout the anticipated free agent spring camp in search of some useful assets.

Rays To Sign Dustin McGowan

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The Rays have struck a minor-league deal with righty Dustin McGowan, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp and would earn a $1.5MM salary in the majors, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Soon to turn 36, the former first-round pick has spent the past two campaigns with the Marlins. He posted a notable bounceback effort in 2016 but stumbled in last year.

To be fair, McGowan did still managed to handle 77 2/3 frames over 63 appearances, so he’s still capable of bearing a substantial load. But he had a tough season in the results department, posting a 4.75 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

Despite carrying a typically solid 50.9% groundball rate last year, McGowan coughed up 13 home runs. He also lost some velocity after showing career-best rates in 2016, but still averaged over 94 with both his four and two-seam fastballs.

In the aggregate, it seems McGowan will have his work cut out to earn a shot on the Opening Day roster. At a minimum, he’ll have a chance to establish position on the overall reliever depth chart. It’s worth remembering that there could yet be some added opportunities in Tampa Bay depending upon how the rest of the offseason unfolds.

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