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Negotiation Impasse Could Jeopardize Shohei Otani Posting

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Despite a variety of roadblocks, it has become widely assumed that Japanese star Shohei Otani would transition to the majors over the coming offseason. That possibility could now be in jeopardy, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, owing to a dispute regarding the nature of the transfer rules that would govern the transaction.

Under the preexisting rules regime, Otani would have been made available to any Major League Baseball team willing to pay the maximum $20MM transfer fee. While MLB’s restrictive new international spending rules severely limited his potential earning capacity, he appears to be at peace with taking less now rather than waiting until he is old enough not to have his bonus capped.

Trouble is, the posting deal between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball just expired, leading to negotiations on a new agreement. Per Sherman, the approach contemplated was to allow the NPB team to receive a payout tied to the value of the contract(something in the realm of 15 to 20 percent of the total guarantee).

In the case of Otani, of course, that would have meant a drastic reduction of the money flowing to his current club, the Nippon Ham Fighters. While MLB would be willing to allow Otani to sign under the preexisting rules, per Sherman, that attempt at a compromise has run afoul of the MLB player’s union.

While the MLBPA does not count Otani as a member, and wouldn’t even do so upon his signing (since it’ll be a minor-league deal), it does have a stake here since the issue is subject to collective bargaining. According to Sherman, the union is concerned with the possibility that Otani will end up taking home a bonus significantly less than the value paid to the Fighters.

Ultimately, it seems that there’s still room for talks to sort things out. Sherman does not suggest that the union is interested in spoiling the transfer, for example; to the contrary, he says it is attempting to work with Otani. (That effort, he notes, has been complicated by the fact that Otani is still utilizing a Japanese lawyer and has yet to choose a MLBPA-certified agent.)

Even if things eventually get sorted, the news is quite notable. With the World Series wrapping up tonight, the open market will be fired up tomorrow. Teams shopping for starting pitching will begin negotiating in earnest, unsure of whether Otani will actually come — and, if so, exactly what he’s looking for in choosing a team. All things considered, the Otani situation is about as big a wild card on the market as could be imagined.

Blue Jays Outright Bo Schultz, Cesar Valdez, Darrell Ceciliani

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The Blue Jays have announced some roster trimming moves. Right-handers Bo Schultz and Cesar Valdez were outrighted along with outfielder Darrell Ceciliani.

Schultz, 32, underwent Tommy John surgery late in camp, so he’s unlikely to be ready to participate fully in Spring Training. That said, he ought to have a chance of pitching for much of the 2018 season. Schultz, who owns a 4.54 ERA over 67 1/3 career MLB frames could either sign early or wait and put on a showcase once he’s ready.

Valdez, who’s also 32, has sparse MLB experience but has functioned as a depth swingman option. He has pitched well at Triple-A over the past two seasons since returning from a few years in the Mexican League.

As for Ceciliani, the 27-year-old has spent the past two seasons in the Toronto organization but hasn’t earned much time in the majors. A shoulder injury kept him out for much of the 2017 season, and Ceciliani struggled badly (.156/.198/.169) in the 81 plate appearances he was able to take at Triple-A.

Mets To Promote Pat Roessler To Hitting Coach, Hire Dave Eiland As Pitching Coach

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6:38pm: New York will name Dave Eiland as its next pitching coach, according to Carig (Twitter link). Eiland had held the same position with the Royals since the start of the 2012 season, but Kansas City decided not to retain him into the future. The ten-year MLB veteran also previously served as the Yankees’ pitching coach.

3:31pm: The Mets are expected to promote Roessler to become the team’s hitting coach, Puma of reports on Twitter. Ricky Bones will remain as the bullpen coach, he adds.

9:55am: Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports that there will be some continuity on the coaching staff, as assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler is finishing up a two-year deal to return to the Mets. Roessler’s responsibilities with the team “will expand,” per Ackert, though it’s not clear if he’ll simply step into the hitting coach vacancy created by Long’s departure. Ackert does note that Roessler turned down an opportunity within the division to be a big league hitting coach last winter.

9:33am: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that first base coach Tom Goodwin is unlikely to return to the team as well. Like Carig, he’s also heard that Long isn’t likely to return. Puma notes in another tweet that the Mets could bring Tim Teufel back as an infield coach and possibly as a replacement for Goodwin.

7:31am: After being passed over for the Mets’ managerial vacancy, hitting coach Kevin Long is now unlikely to return to the team in 2017, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig. The organization had reportedly promised a 2018 job to Long even in the event that he was not named the successor to Terry Collins, but Long’s contract expired at the end of October and he’s yet to sign a new one.

Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post presented one alternative opportunity for Long yesterday, reporting that he’s in the running to become the division-rival Nationals’ new hitting coach. Long also interviewed for the managerial vacancy in D.C., though he came up short to another well-respected coach who is getting his first managerial opportunity: longtime Cubs/Rays bench coach Dave Martinez. George A. King III of the New York Post reported over the weekend that Long could also return to the Yankees, for whom he served as the hitting coach from 2007-14. King suggested that Long could potentially be a managerial candidate there, but could also return to his old post as the hitting coach in the Bronx as well.

The Mets, of course, figured to have a new-look coaching staff under first-time manager Mickey Callaway even in the event that Long had been retained. As Carig notes, the only coach that is under contract beyond the 2018 season is third base coach Glenn Sherlock, so Long’s reported departure could put the Mets on the lookout for a number of replacements at key coaching positions, including pitching coach, bench coach, bullpen coach and first base coach.

Brewers Outright Carlos Torres, Quintin Berry

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The Brewers have announced the removal of two players from the team’s 40-man roster. Right-hander Carlos Torres and outfielder Quintin Berry have each been outrighted to Triple-A.

With the move, Milwaukee is effectively sending both into free agency. Torres has the right to refuse the assignment by virtue of his MLB service time. Berry does not, but will nevertheless qualify for minor-league free agency.

Torres, who recently turned 35, contributed 72 2/3 innings of 4.21 ERA ball in 2017. Despite the generally decent results, his strikeout and walk rates worsened from a productive 2016, in which Torres had provided Milwaukee with a 2.73 earned run average over 82 1/3 frames.

There’s some reason to believe that Torres can continue to succeed even at his relatively advanced age. Notably, he averaged a career-best 93.4 mph with his two-seamer. But the Brewers obviously did not feel it was worth staking a projected $3.3MM to retain Torres via arbitration, so he’ll seek another opportunity via free agency.

As for Berry, who’ll soon turn 33, he only briefly cracked the majors. Indeed, he has seen scant MLB action since a 94-game run with the Tigers back in 2012. The fleet-footed Berry will likely end up finding a minors deal to serve as Triple-A depth and provide a possible defense and baserunning option down the stretch.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information]

While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.

That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.

After firing pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blake Ilsley, the Cardinals hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach. The Redbirds were said to be seeking a “more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment“, and ultimately landed on Maddux after considering many potential candidates. They’ll hope his 15 years of experience can help get the most out of their young set of hurlers.

One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.

Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem as though the Cardinals have all that much interest in bringing Lynn back. He’s rumored to be seeking a Jordan Zimmerman-sized deal, which seems a bit outlandish and certainly more than the Cardinals are willing to pay for him. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright will occupy three spots in the rotation, and beyond that the Cardinals would probably like to see what they have in Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty rather than take a risk on a 30 year-old who’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Speaking of which, highly regarded young rightyAlex Reyes will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point in 2018. The likelihood that he’ll return early in the year will be a factor the Cards take into consideration when addressing their rotation this offseason.

Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.

With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.

Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.

The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.

That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.

Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.

Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.

Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.

Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.

So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.

In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.

The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.

J.D. Martinez Hires Scott Boras

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On the brink of free agency, slugger J.D. Martinez has switched representation and is now a client of agent Scott Boras, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (on Twitter). The change comes just a day before the beginning of an offseason in which Martinez stands out as the top bat on the free-agent market — if not the top free agent overall.

The 30-year-old Martinez missed the first five-plus weeks of the season due to a foot injury and nonetheless returned to hit a career-high 45 home runs in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Overall, he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 on the season, bringing his cumulative batting line since 2014 to .300/.362/.574. Martinez has averaged 32 homers per season and 40 long balls per 162 games played in that four-year stretch, establishing himself as one of the top sluggers in all of Major League Baseball.

Martinez’s new representatives will likely position him as the top offensive threat on the open market this winter, though they’ll also have to assuage concerns over their new client’s recent injuries as well as his declining defensive ratings. Martinez was limited to just 120 games in 2016 as well, though that was the result of a fractured elbow that can largely be written off as a fluke injury. His glovework could prove more troubling. After rating as an above-average defender in 2014-15, Martinez graded out as one of baseball’s worst defenders at any position in 2016 and was well below average (though still somewhat improved) in 2017.

Those potential shortcomings notwithstanding, it’s quite likely that Martinez will out-earn every other hitter on the free-agent market this winter. He joins Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jake Arrieta as the most notable Boras clients of the offseason — a list that also includes Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson and Tony Watson.

The change in representation has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agency information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you come across any notable errors or omissions within, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Stairs, Giants

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Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi tells J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group that Gabe Kapler’s departure to become the Phillies’ new manager now leaves the Dodgers with the onerous task of finding a new person to fill the “toughest job in baseball.” Kapler spent three years as the Dodgers’ director of player development/farm director, and Hoornstra notes that the new ideas he brought to the table have helped the lay the foundation for the team’s current run of success. “You’ve got to be able to relate to a lot of different factions and constituents between the front office, the major league club, major league manager, coaches, players throughout the system, affiliates, minor league players, minor league coaches,” said Zaidi of the unique challenges the role presents. Per Zaidi, the team will be casting a “wide-open net,” and the search could take a few weeks. Hoornstra points out that Jeremy Zoll, Kapler’s top assistant who could have been a leading internal candidate, has already been scooped up by the Twins to serve as their farm director in 2018 and beyond.

More from the NL West…

  • Newly minted Padres hitting coach Matt Stairs plans to bring an emphasis of on-base percentage and selectivity to the lineup, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Cassavell notes that Stairs’ famous one-liner, “Swing like you live: hard,” leads to some misconceptions about his philosophy; Stairs doesn’t necessarily preach swinging often but believes in being aggressive when deciding to do so. “I’ve always been a guy that always preaches — even when I wasn’t coaching — about not giving at-bats away, being a stubborn hitter,” said Stairs. “…I’m a firm believer in passing the baton and taking the walk. Let the guy behind you pick you up.” The Padres ranked 25th in MLB with a 7.7 percent walk rate last year and somewhat incredibly finished the season with a sub-.300 OBP as a collective unit, ranking last in the Majors at .299.
  • MLB.com’s Chris Haft writes that young Giants relievers Kyle Crick, Reyes Moronta and Garrett Williams are all likely to get the chance to cement themselves in the 2018 season. Krick, 25 next month, may have the best chance to do so early in the year after already experiencing some success in the second half of the 2017 season, though his 7.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 will need to trend more closely toward his respective Triple-A marks of 12.0 and 4.0. Williams has yet to even pitch in Double-A, but the 23-year-old lefty tore through two Class-A levels last season, and left-handed bullpen help is a need in San Francisco. Of course, the Giants still seem likely to add to the bullpen in some capacity this winter, though with myriad holes to fill throughout the roster, the presence of some internal options will be key.

Orioles Notes: Pitching, Sisco, Wynns, Prospects, Coaching Staff

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Orioles manager Buck Showalter joined Jason La Canfora and Jerry Coleman on the B-More Opinionated podcast to discuss his team’s 2017 struggles, the upcoming offseason and the many roster decisions facing the club. Among the many topics discussed were the team’s catching situation, Showalter’s thoughts on a number of up and coming prospects in an improved Orioles system and the importance of improving the organization’s development of young pitching. Showalter quickly dismissed any notion that the team couldn’t compete with larger-market clubs for top-tier free-agent pitchers, calling it an “excuse” and emphasizing that the O’s need to develop their own pitchers more effectively. “Whether it’s [Kevin] Gausman, [Dylan] Bundy, [Hunter] Harvey — we’ve got to be about eight or nine [starters] deep,” said Showalter. Asked about Double-A right-hander David Hess, Showalter suggested that the 24-year-old could be a factor for the O’s at some point next season, noting a tendency to get stronger and improve as the season wears on. Showalter also candidly acknowledged the sting that’s felt from trading away some young arms (e.g. Zach Davies, Parker Bridwell) but dismissed the suggestions that there’s tension between him and general manager Dan Duquette.

The entire interview is about 18 minutes long and is an excellent listen for Orioles fans and fans of other clubs alike. A couple more highlights and some other notes out of Charm City…

  • Showalter also heaped praise on several minor leaguers, including Hess, catcher Austin Wynns, infielder Steve Wilkerson, and outfielders Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart and Austin Hays (the latter of whom made his MLB debut with the O’s in 2017).  Showalter sounded particularly bullish on Mullins’ glove in center field and Wynns’ ability to help out behind the plate if needed, listing him right alongside top prospect Chance Sisco and stating that he “[doesn’t] spend a lot of time separating them” when thinking about the ways in which they can help the team down the stretch. Wynns, Showalter opines, is often overlooked because he’s 26 years of age and was a senior sign out of the draft, but the skipper sounded highly encouraged by his development. Both Wynns and Hess are candidates to be added to the 40-man roster as Rule 5 eligible players, and while Showalter noted it’s not his decision, his preferences on the pair seem rather clear.
  • Showalter told La Canfora and Coleman that he hoped the front office would bring back his entire coaching staff in 2018, and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports that that will indeed be the case. Per Kubatko, the entire coaching staff has been extended an offer to return next season. Kubatko notes that first-year pitching coach Roger McDowell was a popular target for criticism in Baltimore thanks to the rotation’s struggles, but Kubatko notes that several pitchers on the Orioles’ pitching staff have campaigned for the return of McDowell, who has a long track record as a successful pitching coach at the Major League level.
  • Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun takes a look at the Orioles’ catching depth with the likely departure of Welington Castillo this offseason, noting that Baltimore can lean heavily on the combination of Sisco, Caleb Joseph and Wynns, the latter of whom Meoli lists as a candidate to be added to the 40-man roster (as Showalter suggested). Meoli notes that veteran minor league backstops Francisco Pena and Audry Perez are likely to test the waters of minor league free agency this offseason, making the potential addition of Wynns seem all the more plausible, on paper. It’s worth noting that Showalter did tell La Canfora and Coleman that he hopes Castillo “will find his way back to us,” and Meoli notes that there were no readily apparent concerns about his framing or game-calling abilities among the Orioles’ pitching staff in ’17. Nonetheless, it seems quite likely that Castillo, who slashed .282/.323/.490 with 20 homers and an MLB-best 49 percent caught-stealing rate, will seek a greater deal than his $7MM player option in 2018.

NL Central Notes: Cozart, Cubs, Cardinals

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Despite coming off a roughly five-win season, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could face a difficult market in free agency, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Buchanan quotes an exec from the American League and another from the National League who suggested that Cozart would struggle to match even the three-year, $40MM pact attained by J.J. Hardy at a similar age three offseasons ago. A lack of contending teams in clear need of a shortstop is working against Cozart, as is the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of producing at his 2017 levels. An NL exec opined that Cozart could expand his market by adopting a super-utility role in which he started a couple of times per week at shortstop, second base and third base, though Buchanan notes that Cozart “feels strongly” about remaining a shortstop. Cincinnati is thought to be “leaning heavily against” a qualifying offer for Cozart, per Buchanan, which would certainly help his free-agent stock. From my view, it still seems likely that a team will ultimately see Cozart as too good a value not to find a spot for him at a certain point. It’s difficult to see his market falling below even the three-year, $33-36MM range, as even if he doesn’t replicate his 2017 excellence at the plate, he could still be reasonably expected to more than justify that level of commitment.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • The Cubs need to replace 40 percent of their starting rotation in 2018, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score, adding that the team is “expected” to pursue an acquisition similar to its July pickup of Jose Quintana (i.e. a controllable arm on the trade market). Levine speculatively lists former Cub Jeff Samardzija (now the Giants and owed $58.5MM through 2020) and Rays right-hander Chris Archer (owed $34MM through 2021, with the final two years being club options) as possibilities. Of course, the Giants have shown no inclination that they’ll be selling off veteran pieces this winter, and the Rays have no pressure to move Archer, whose contract is one of the most affordable commitments to any established starter in the big leagues. Levine also notes Alex Cobb as a potential free-agent target, noting the righty’s connection to manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey — each of whom knows Cobb well from their days with the Rays.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has posted highlights from a lengthy, comprehensive chat on the Cardinals and their offseason plans. There are more than a dozen interesting scenarios covered within, including the team’s search for a closer, the need to add a known quantity to the middle of the lineup and the possibility (or lack thereof) various players currently on the roster will be moved. Goold notes that the Cardinals have had interest in Brandon Morrow on multiple occasions in the past and notes that he could well be a target if the Cardinals ultimately decide to pursue multiple arms and have a competition for the ninth inning next spring. He also adds that St. Louis will likely pursue top-end closers (e.g. Wade Davis, Greg Holland), though the Cards will have obvious competition on that front. Any who track the offseason closely, especially fans of the Cardinals or other clubs in the NL Central, will want to take a full look for some insight into the Redbirds’ upcoming plans.

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