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Latest On Max Scherzer

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With the rotation market moving more quickly than the rest of free agency, the number of unsigned starting pitchers is dwindling. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and potential reliever conversion Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Beyond that, teams are evaluating pitchers who’ll likely be limited to one- or two-year commitments.

Max Scherzer may be the most intriguing of those short-term targets. The future Hall of Famer was limited to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings during his final season with the Rangers. Scherzer has made clear that he has no plans to retire. He’ll be back for his age-40 campaign in hopes of a healthier, more productive season.

In a live stream for Bleacher Report this afternoon, Jon Heyman suggested that Scherzer is fielding interest from four teams. Heyman indicated that the market “is heating up a bit,” so it’s possible that the three-time Cy Young winner could come off the board in the relatively near future.

Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list as he finished rehab from last December’s back surgery. Nerve irritation in his throwing hand delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight starts before going back on the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out into September. His season concluded after one additional start because of a strained left hamstring.

A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 is obviously going to raise concerns. Scherzer is only one season removed from starting 30 games and topping 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He’d surpassed 170 innings in every full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he’d been incredibly durable.

Scherzer remains productive when he’s able to pitch, albeit not at a Cy Young level. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate between the Mets and Rangers in 2023. Last season, he allowed just under four earned runs per nine with a diminished 22.6% strikeout percentage. Scherzer still got a ton of chases and whiffs on a per-pitch basis though. His 14.6% swinging strike rate ranked fifth among starting pitchers with 40+ innings. Only Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease missed bats at a higher rate.

Aside from perhaps Flaherty, Scherzer arguably has the highest ceiling for next season alone of any unsigned starter. There’s also significant risk because of the recent spate of injuries. Scherzer will almost certainly be limited to a one-year contract, so the long-term downside is limited, but he should command a strong salary.

Alex Cobb landed $15MM from the Tigers coming off a season in which he combined for 23 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He recently turned 37 and doesn’t miss bats at anywhere near the rate Scherzer does. It stands to reason that Scherzer and his representation at the Boras Corporation will be aiming to beat Cobb money, perhaps in pursuit of a contract closer to $20MM.

Heyman’s report doesn’t specify any of the teams involved in the bidding. Speculatively speaking, the Braves, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals and Mets are among the teams that could have some spending room and a desire for a short-term upside play. Scherzer isn’t going to sign with a team that doesn’t have a path to contention, but there are very few truly rebuilding clubs right now. Every team aside from Colorado, Miami and the White Sox may feel they have a path to a Wild Card spot.

Free Agent Faceoff: Justin Turner / J.D. Martinez

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Just before the holidays, the hot stove roared to life for the first base and DH market as a host of players all came off the board over the course of a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changed hands via trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Joc Pederson, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Bell all inked deals in free agency. The boom in this corner of the market even impacted depth pieces such as Darick Hall and Matt Mervis, both of whom found new homes in minor league free agency and via trade respectively. Even after that run of deals coming together, however, plenty of interesting first base and DH options remain available. Pete Alonso is of course the top free agent first baseman available this winter, while Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha are among the more interesting bounce-back candidates who could still be had on the open market.

Among the most notable options available at this point in the winter for those looking to fill a hole at DH are a pair of aging right-handed bats, both of whom are World Series champions with decorated resumes: Justin Turner and J.D. Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers but managed to put up above-average offensive results last year and are looking to extend their careers in free agency this winter. Those similarities come with noticeable differences in their overall profiles that give each certain advantages over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the pair.

Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday back in November, is a free agent for the third consecutive offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was among the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, and in nine seasons with the club he slashed an excellent .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect that level of production from Turner at this stage of his career, but even though his days of All-Star appearances and top-10 finishes in MVP voting appear to be behind him he’s remained a consistent and solidly above-average hitter in two seasons since departing his longtime club. He’s split time between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners since leaving the Dodgers, and in that time has slashed .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while accruing 2.2 fWAR.

Digging a little deeper, Turner gets to his production in largely the same way he always has, with a high-contact approach and strong plate discipline. He’s struck out at an identical 17.6% clip in each of the last two seasons, just a hair behind Juan Soto’s 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he paired that with an excellent 10.9% walk rate that placed him alongside Carlos Santana and Yordan Alvarez in a tie for the 27th-highest walk rate among qualified hitters this year. That’s not to say Turner is flawless as a hitter, of course; the veteran has never been much of a power threat, and 2024 saw him hit just 11 homers as his ISO dropped to .124. That was the 16th-lowest figure among qualified hitters last year and is Turner’s worst finish in the category since he arrived in L.A. back in 2014. His 4.6% barrel rate and 32.5% Hard-Hit rate were similarly bottom-16 figures in the majors this year.

As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his peak years in Detroit and Boston with a brief sojourn to Arizona in the middle. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge topped Martinez’s 151 wRC+ as he slashed an incredible .307/.373/.581 with 207 homers in 816 games. Of course, those peak years are now long behind him. Since the start of the 2021 season, Martinez has slashed .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) with noticeable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger mashed more homers (33) in 2023 than he did in the 2022 and ’24 seasons combined (32), and depending on his power output can oscillate from a roughly replacement-level bat to a slugger still worthy of an All-Star appearance.

With that being said, Martinez’s plate discipline pales in comparison to that of Turner. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out at a hefty 29.8% clip while walking a solid but unspectacular 8.5% of the time. It’s also worth noting that, while he’s three years younger than Turner is, he provides even less defensive value than his 40-year-old contemporary. Turner played in 139 games and started in the field for just 44 of them in 2024 (almost exclusively at first base), but you’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find a year where Martinez started that many games in a season.

It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season is far worse than that of Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started losing playing time to deadline pickup Jesse Winker late in the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s postseason run, he hit for surprisingly little power with no extra-base hits. Turner, meanwhile finished strong down the stretch with the Mariners as he hit .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.

On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a resurgence could be in the cards for 2025. His 14.7% barrel rate last year was just a hair behind those of Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernández, while 45.5% Hard-Hit Rate places him squarely between Elly De La Cruz and Joc Pederson. That contributes to a .356 xwOBA that was nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA last year. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA and his 2023 production actually outstripping his expected numbers noticeably.

So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in for 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline, and limited ability to play the field? Or are you more drawn to Martinez’s power, upside, and relative youth?

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
Justin Turner 51.54% (3,600 votes)
J.D. Martinez 48.46% (3,385 votes)
Total Votes: 6,985

White Sox Acquire Tyler Gilbert

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The White Sox have acquired left-hander Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies, per an announcement from Philadelphia. Chicago sent right-hander Aaron Combs back to the Phillies in exchange for Gilbert’s services. Gilbert had been designated for assignment by the Phillies prior to the holidays. The White Sox designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment to make room for Gilbert on their 40-man roster.

Gilbert, 31, pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. A sixth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2015, he was surrendered to Arizona in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft and made his big league debut as a Diamondback during the 2021 season. The lefty had a rather impressive rookie season, as he posted a 3.15 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 4.27 FIP in 40 innings of work for the Snakes spread between six starts and three relief appearances. The highlight of his rookie campaign (and of his career to this point) was a no-hitter in his first career MLB start, where he struck out five Padres while walking three over his nine hitless innings of work.

Unfortunately, Gilbert’s next two seasons in the desert didn’t go quite as well. He struggled to a 5.23 ERA with a 5.10 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work between 2022 and ’23, with a paltry 17.9% strikeout rate and a penchant for allowing home runs being the main culprits of the lefty’s difficulties. Those difficulties led to Gilbert being outrighted off the club’s roster following the 2023 season, which led to him electing free agency and signing that aforementioned minor league deal in Cincinnati. After rejoining the Phillies, Gilbert posted a solid enough 3.24 ERA in 8 1/3 innings of work at the big league level and paired that with an excellent run of outings at Triple-A, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 40 frames across 31 appearances for the club’s LeHigh Valley affiliate. Impressive as those minor league numbers were, however, Gilbert found himself squeezed off the club’s 40-man roster just before the holidays due to the Jesús Luzardo trade.

Now that he’s in Chicago, Gilbert could find himself in the mix for starts at the big league level in what figures to be a fairly wide-open competition for starts on the south side. Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson, and Drew Thorpe all seem likely to be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation if healthy, but beyond that trio a number of possible options exist including Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jake Eder, Ky Bush, and Nick Nastrini. If Gilbert doesn’t make the club’s rotation, it’s to imagine him providing left-handed relief depth alongside Jared Shuster and Cam Booser for the club this year.

In return for Gilbert’s services, the Phillies add a right-handed minor leaguer in Combs. The White Sox’ eighth rounder in the 2024 draft, Combs has just 7 2/3 innings of work at the minor league level under his belt but struck out an impressive 39.4% of opponents at the Single-A level in his pro debut down the stretch last year. Prior to being drafted, Combs posted a 3.24 ERA in 66 2/3 innings of work pitching in the SEC. The youngster just turned 23 last week and is hardly a sure bet to influence the club in 2025, but the impressive stuff he flashed last season could carry him through the minors fairly quickly.

In order to fit Gilbert on their roster, the White Sox part ways with Shewmake. The 27-year-old was a first-round pick by the Braves in 2019 and eventually made his big league debut with the club in 2023, though that cup of coffee lasted just two games and ended before Shewmake recorded his first big league hit. He was shipped to Chicago last winter as part of the trade that brought Aaron Bummer to Atlanta, but dealt with injuries during his first year in Chicago and was limited to just 39 games between Triple-A and the majors. Those games did not go especially well, as he posted a .152/.152/.182 slash line in ten minor league games. That’s more or less in line with what he did in the majors, as well: in 67 trips to the plate, Shewmake hit just .125/.134/.203 (-15 wRC+). The White Sox will have one week to waive or trade Shewmake, and if he clears waivers successfully they’ll have the opportunity to outright him to the minors as non-roster depth for the coming season.

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

Where Will Bregman Sign?
Tigers 31.57% (5,519 votes)
Red Sox 23.30% (4,073 votes)
Blue Jays 16.16% (2,826 votes)
Mets 11.71% (2,048 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 10.82% (1,892 votes)
Phillies 6.44% (1,126 votes)
Total Votes: 17,484
What Will Bregman Be Guaranteed?
$156MM - $181MM 36.70% (4,896 votes)
$182MM - $199MM 31.33% (4,180 votes)
Less than $156MM 18.09% (2,414 votes)
$200MM - $219MM 10.67% (1,424 votes)
$220MM or more 3.21% (428 votes)
Total Votes: 13,342

The Opener: Thielbar, DFA Limbo, Spending

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Happy New Year from MLBTR! Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into 2025:

1. Thielbar terms to be publicized:

The Cubs wrapped up 2024 with one last signing: left-hander Caleb Thielbar on a one-year deal. Thielbar, 38 later this month, struggled to a 5.32 ERA in 47 1/3 innings of work with the Twins last year but had pitched much better for Minnesota from 2020 to 2023, when he posted a 3.21 ERA (130 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in 174 innings of work. The southpaw figures to feature in Chicago’s middle relief mix, joining other left-handed options such as Rob Zastryzny and Luke Little. Notably, the terms of Thielbar’s deal with the Cubs have not yet been reported. Even heading into his age-38 season following a down season, it wouldn’t be a shock if Thielbar garnered significantly more than the major league minimum given his past track record of success. It’s likely that more clarity regarding the specifics of Thielbar’s contract will be made available in the coming days.

2. Players in DFA limbo:

The timer for clubs to make decisions regarding players in DFA limbo was paused over the holidays, but figures to restart now that 2025 has begun. A number of players including Phillies left-hander Tyler Gilbert, Astros infielder Grae Kessinger, and Rangers catcher Sam Huff have been facing uncertain futures that will be resolved in the coming days. Within the next week, all players currently in DFA limbo figure to either be placed on waivers or traded. Clubs will have the opportunity to outright any of their players who clear waivers during this time to the minor leagues, but players who have previously been outrighted or have at least three years of MLB service time can reject that assignment in favor of free agency if they so choose.

3. Will these teams spend in 2025?

As 2024 came to a close, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look yesterday at each club’s spending to this point in the offseason. The Mets, naturally, led the way by a significant margin thanks to the $765MM commitment they made to Juan Soto last month, but the other end of the list is far more interesting. Five clubs have yet to spend a dime in free agency, though that number drops to four if you consider right-hander Michael Wacha re-upping with the Royals in the days leading up to free agency to be a fresh signing rather than an extension. Joining the Royals at the bottom of the spending barrel are the Mariners, Twins, Padres, and Cardinals. Each team finished with an above .500 record last year, but at the very least Minnesota, San Diego, and St. Louis all appear to face stiff payroll limitations this winter. Will these clubs become more active in free agency now that we’ve moved into 2025, with just six weeks until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training?

Each Team’s Free Agent Spending Thus Far

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The New Year serves as a symbolic halfway point of the offseason. It has been just over two months since the Dodgers knocked off the Yankees to win the World Series. We’re a little more than six weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training.

Twenty six of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents have come off the board. Four of the top 10 remain unsigned, as well as Roki Sasaki (who was not ranked because his earning power is limited). More than half the money has been spent — Alex Bregman is the only unsigned player who landed within our top six free agents — but the offseason is proceeding at a relatively normal pace. It has moved a little more quickly than last winter, when 22 players from our Top 50 had signed by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we’ll look through every team’s activity on the open market. We’ll stretch back to November 4, the date at which free agents were first allowed to begin discussing contract terms with every team. That excludes a pair of deals that were signed within the five-day exclusive negotiation window for teams to discuss contracts with their own free agents: the Reds’ $2.25MM deal with Brent Suter and the Royals retaining Michael Wacha on a three-year, $51MM contract.

This isn’t an exhaustive look at a team’s offseason activity. The Blue Jays (Andrés Giménez), Angels (Jorge Soler), Cubs (Kyle Tucker) and Yankees (Cody Bellinger) are among teams that have acquired highly-paid players in trade. The Dodgers signed Tommy Edman to an extension that guaranteed $64.5MM in new money. This is strictly a look at free agent activity.

For this exercise, we’ll take the total amount even if the contract includes deferred money. Teams are ordered by overall spending.

1. New York Mets

Total guarantees: $917.25MM

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Total spending: $287MM

3. New York Yankees

Total guarantees: $235.5MM

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

Total guarantees: $210MM

5. San Francisco Giants

Total guarantees: $182MM

6. Texas Rangers

Total guarantees: $130.5MM

7. Los Angeles Angels

Total guarantees: $80.25MM

8. Baltimore Orioles

Total guarantees: $71MM

9. Athletics

Total guarantees: $70.95MM

10. Houston Astros

Total guarantees: $60MM

11. Boston Red Sox

Total guarantees: $52.3MM

12. Cleveland Guardians

Total guarantees: $42MM

13. Chicago Cubs

Total guarantees: More than $40.5MM

14. Detroit Tigers

Total guarantees: $30MM

15. Washington Nationals

Total guarantees: $29MM

16. Philadelphia Phillies

Total guarantees: $22.5MM

17. Cincinnati Reds

Total guarantees: $21.05MM

18. Toronto Blue Jays

Total guarantees: $15MM

19. Tampa Bay Rays

Total guarantees: $8.5MM

19. Colorado Rockies

Total guarantees: $8.5MM

21. Pittsburgh Pirates

Total guarantees: More than $5MM

22. Chicago White Sox

Total guarantees: $4.75MM

23. Atlanta Braves

Total guarantees: More than $360K

24. Miami Marlins

Total guarantees: $200K

25. Milwaukee Brewers

Total guarantees: More than $0

26. Kansas City Royals

Total guarantees: $0

  • None*

26. Minnesota Twins

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

26. San Diego Padres

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

26. Seattle Mariners

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

26. St. Louis Cardinals

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

* Counting Wacha as a free agent deal rather than an extension would push Kansas City to 12th in total spending

Jesus Luzardo Discusses Return From Injury

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Phillies newly-acquired starter Jesús Luzardo chatted with the Philadelphia beat over Zoom on Monday. The southpaw finished the 2024 season on the injured list but indicated he’s going into next season at full strength.

“I feel 100%. I’ve felt 100% the whole offseason,” Luzardo said. “Last year, the back was really the problem. Now that we’ve got that all figured out, thankfully everything’s back to normal.” He added that he has had a typical offseason, so it seems fair to assume he’ll be a full go for Spring Training. A lumbar stress reaction sent Luzardo to the 15-day IL in the second half of June. It didn’t take long before Miami transferred him to the 60-day injured list. The Marlins shut him down for good in early August.

Luzardo’s final season with the Marlins was a disappointment. The 27-year-old lefty struggled to an even 5.00 earned run average over 12 starts. He struck out a slightly below-average 21.2% of batters faced. Luzardo missed a couple weeks early in the year with elbow tightness, but the back proved much more problematic.

A fully healthy version of Luzardo is a #2 or #3 caliber starter. He showed that upside in 2023. Luzardo turned in a 3.58 ERA while striking out 28.1% of opponents across 178 2/3 innings. Luzardo averaged nearly 97 MPH on his heater and missed plenty of bats with both his slider and changeup. His 14.1% overall swinging strike rate ranked sixth among qualified starting pitchers.

Philadelphia sent highly-regarded shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba to Miami as the headliner of the Luzardo trade. A return to his ’23 form would arguably give Philadelphia the best front five in MLB. He’ll slot behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and alongside Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez in Rob Thomson’s staff. The depth isn’t great, though the Phils have added Joe Ross on a $4MM free agent deal to join Taijuan Walker as candidates for swing roles.

Pitching prospect Andrew Painter could eventually be a factor, but that won’t happen within the season’s first month or two. Philadelphia is being very cautious with the touted 21-year-old righty, whom they’ve seemingly kept untouchable in trade talks. Painter is working back from July 2023 Tommy John surgery. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Matt Gelb of the Athletic) last week that the Phils won’t have Painter pitch in games during Spring Training. He’ll continue throwing on the side in the spring and will subsequently need to build into game shape in the minors.

Painter made six appearances and tallied 15 2/3 innings in last year’s Arizona Fall League. That’s his only game action since the conclusion of the 2022 season. The Phillies will need to keep a close watch on his workload and certainly envision Painter as a factor in a potential pennant race. It’s understandable they’d prefer to start him slowly and concentrate on saving his bullets for what they hope will be another playoff push. That’s especially true now that Luzardo is in the fold, allowing them to open the season with both Ross and Walker in the ’pen if their top five arms are healthy.

Craig Breslow Discusses Casas, Bregman, Devers

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Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the Boston beat on Monday to discuss the team’s offseason. MLBTR has already relayed Breslow’s notes on Lucas Giolito and Roki Sasaki, respectively. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe were among those to cover Breslow’s other comments.

Most notably, the CBO pushed back against trade rumors swirling around first baseman Triston Casas. “I’m not totally sure where it comes from. We’re not shopping Triston,” Breslow said. “We see him as a guy that can hit in the middle of the lineup for a really long time here in Boston. I’ve seen some of the speculation about what deals may or may not have existed, or what may or may not have been proposed, and there was nothing that was remotely close. We’re certainly not shopping him.”

Reporting has generally characterized the Sox as being open to a Casas trade without suggesting they’re actively trying to deal him. That has been most prevalent in the context of attempting to line up a deal with Seattle for a controllable starter. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reported during the Winter Meetings that the Mariners had rebuffed interest from the Sox in swapping Casas for a young starter like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller. Boston has seemingly not had interest in a Casas for Luis Castillo framework. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last week that the Sox would’ve wanted Seattle to take on the underwater Masataka Yoshida contract in that situation.

In any case, it looks increasingly likely that Casas will remain on the Red Sox going into next season. Boston has added Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to a rotation that already included Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Giolito is shooting for an Opening Day return from internal brace surgery. That gives the Sox at least six viable starters, while Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are on hand as depth options. Garrett Whitlock is likely to kick back to the bullpen once he returns from his own elbow surgery.

While the rotation may no longer be a priority, Breslow highlighted two longstanding target areas: a right-handed bat and the bullpen. They’ve made progress in the latter area, bringing in Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson to strengthen the left side. Whitlock and Liam Hendriks could step in alongside second-year pitcher Justin Slaten in the late innings. Whitlock, Hendriks, and Wilson all come with some durability question marks. Chapman’s scattershot command makes him something of a wild card. Slaten, who is just one season removed from being a Rule 5 selection, might be the team’s safest reliever.

Relief pitching is tough to project, and the Sox have a more volatile bullpen than most contenders. There’s a decent amount of upside, but it’s not surprising that Breslow indicated they’ll look for another addition. The free agent relief market has barely moved. Only three relievers — Clay Holmes, Blake Treinen and Yimi García — have signed multi-year deals. Holmes is stretching out as a starter after signing a three-year contract with the Mets. Chapman and Nick Martinez (who accepted a qualifying offer from Cincinnati) are the only other relievers to sign for a guarantee above $10MM.

The slowly-developing relief market in part reflects a weaker than average free agent group. However, the top two relievers, Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman, remain unsigned going into the new year. Carlos Estévez, Kirby Yates, A.J. Minter and David Robertson are other relievers who have yet to sign. Ryan Helsley is the top name on the trade market, though the Cardinals seem to prefer to hold him until the deadline.

In contrast to the bullpen, Boston has yet to make a move for a right-handed hitter aside from a trade for backup catcher Carlos Narváez. The Sox lost Tyler O’Neill from a group that was already very left-handed. Breslow reiterated that the Sox wanted impact production from “a right-handed bat out of the middle of the lineup.” He left open the possibility of internal improvements but noted they’re “certainly also engaged in conversations for players that aren’t yet in the organization.”

The top remaining free agent, righty-hitting infielder Alex Bregman, has been linked to the Sox in recent weeks. Asked whether the Sox are still involved on Bregman, Breslow pointed back to the need for right-handed hitting generally. “As you probably can imagine, I’m not going to speak about specific pursuits. I can say that right-handed bats that we feel like could play well at our park are certainly of interest to us, and we remain engaged on a number of fronts.”

Breslow added that the Red Sox aren’t looking to move Rafael Devers off the hot corner. That doesn’t rule out Bregman, who’d be a massive upgrade over Boston’s internal options at second base (i.e. Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez). Switch-hitting outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are speculative possibilities. Pete Alonso may be the best unsigned right-handed hitter, but he’d be a tough roster fit unless the Sox deal Casas or can offload most of the Yoshida contract.

Brewers Reach New Broadcast Deal With Diamond Sports Group

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The Brewers announced on Tuesday that they’ve reached agreement with Diamond Sports Group to handle in-market broadcasting for the 2025 season. Unsurprisingly, the team did not reveal how much they’ll make in rights fees.

It’s a reversal from plans announced in October. At the time, Major League Baseball announced that it would take over in-market broadcasting for Milwaukee. That came shortly after Diamond, the parent company of FanDuel Sports Networks (formerly the Bally Sports Networks), announced that it was abandoning its contract with the team. Diamond subsequently finalized a plan to avoid liquidation and emerge from bankruptcy to continue operations for at least one more year.

Evidently, Diamond and the Brewers had kept open communications even though Milwaukee initially intended to turn broadcasts to the league. They’ve found a mutually agreeable price point — presumably below what Diamond would have owed under their previous agreement — to stick with the company for another season.

Brewers business operations president Rick Schlesinger tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that the team could turn the rights to MLB as soon as the 2026 season. “Long term, whether it’s 2026 or thereafter, I do think MLB Media is the place where we’re ultimately going to land, and I think that’s going to be in the best interest of the fans and the teams and the league to get a model that provides for the widest possible distribution across the most number of platforms with the highest technology and the best economics for the league and the teams,” Schlesinger said. “But we are comfortable with the quality of the production that Diamond Sports, Ballys and now FanDuel are operating under, and we like the continuity. Our fans will find the games the same places they found it last year.”

It isn’t known if this will have any impact on Milwaukee’s player payroll. The Brewers have only made one major league free agent addition this offseason, signing lefty Grant Wolfram to a deal that presumably landed around the league minimum. RosterResource calculates their payroll around $118MM, narrowly above the approximate $116MM mark at which they ended the ’24 season.

Diamond is back up to eight MLB teams for which it’ll carry in-market broadcasts: the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays, Royals and Tigers. The Guardians, Reds and Twins are turning broadcasts over to MLB. They’re following in the footsteps of the Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies — each of whom was broadcast by MLB this past season. Diamond has also dropped its deal with the Rangers. The Texas organization is not expected to return to Diamond or to sign on with MLB. Mac Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram wrote this month that the Rangers were exploring ways to negotiate individual deals with various cable providers rather than contracting with an RSN.

Mutual Interest Between Orioles, Jack Flaherty

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Jack Flaherty’s first stint in an Orioles uniform didn’t go well, as the right-hander struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings after Baltimore acquired him from the Cardinals at the 2023 trade deadline.  However, it doesn’t appear that any hard feelings exist between Flaherty and the O’s, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo write that “both sides would be open to a reunion after Flaherty’s bounce-back season.”

Injuries marred Flaherty’s 2020-22 seasons, and his 2023 numbers are okay but unspectacular (4.43 ERA in 109 2/3 innings) even before his production cratered by the trade to Baltimore.  He signed a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers last offseason with the goal of re-establishing his value for another quick trip into free agency, and that plan paid off in spades.  Flaherty posted a 3.17 ERA over 162 innings for the Tigers and Dodgers, and another deadline deal that sent him to Los Angeles saw Flaherty capture a World Series ring with his hometown team.

Flaherty’s 29.9% strikeout rate, 32.1% whiff rate, and 5.9% walk rate were all excellent, while his hard-contact and chase rates were both well above the league average.  Batters were able to square up Flaherty when they did make good contract (24 homers allowed, 7.7% barrel rate) and his fastball averaged only 93.3mph, but his modest four-seamer was mostly a setup pitch for Flaherty’s devastating curveball.

This isn’t the first time Flaherty has been linked to the Orioles this winter, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote a few weeks ago that the O’s viewed Flaherty as a potential backup plan if the team was unable to re-sign Corbin Burnes.  Now that Burnes has officially signed with the Diamondbacks, it therefore isn’t surprising that Sammon and Woo write that the Orioles “recently inquired about Flaherty,” as well as other starters they might have on their target list.

How many free agents are on that target list isn’t clear, as Flaherty stands out as the top starter available now that Burnes is off the board.  Flaherty is perhaps the only pitcher remaining who has clear-cut upside as a No. 1 starter, which is what the Orioles need for a rotation that is solid but lacking in a true ace.  Of course, Flaherty’s inconsistent track record prior to 2024 isn’t exactly evidence that the 29-year-old is that kind of frontline pitcher, but it might speak to his talent that the O’s are still interested signing him even in the wake of the 2023 letdown.

Such pitchers as the Padres’ Dylan Cease and the Mariners’ Luis Castillo have been linked to the Orioles on the trade front, but acquiring those hurlers would cost the O’s in both prospects and (in Castillo’s case) some significant money.  Signing Flaherty would cost Baltimore “only” money, and perhaps importantly, no draft picks since Flaherty wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer.  Nick Pivetta is the last pitcher remaining who rejected a qualifying offer, and signing Pivetta would cost the Orioles their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft — a concession Baltimore was reportedly wary about giving up for Pivetta or any other qualified pitcher besides Burnes (who wouldn’t have cost the Orioles any extra compensation since he was their own free agent).

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