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MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning! I’ll get going around 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
  • Good afternoon! Let’s get underway

Derek

  • Do Alec Bohm and A Garcia get non tendered? Not sure either team wants to commit 10+million to them

Steve Adams

  • I think Bohm will be non-tendered. Garcia has a chance to be traded somewhere to a team looking to buy low, but a NT is still possible there. I think he’s done with the Rangers one way or another.

Brooklyngail

  • Your prediction. Does HSK pick up his option and stay in Atlanta or does he test the market?

Steve Adams

  • No, I expect him to head back to the market. He got more than 1/16 when he was fresh off shoulder surgery. Even if it’s another two-year deal with an opt-out, he should be able to lock in more guaranteed money now that he’s healthy — plus the market is devoid of actual shortstop options.Braves could always try to get him to sign on for a new three- or four-year deal before he declines the option, but if my choices are “he exercises it or declines it,” I’m pretty comfortably in the latter camp.

Depressed Oriole

  • Mountcastle worth 8 mil in a trade or non tender more likely?

Steve Adams

  • I’d lean toward the non-tender, but he’s not a Nate Lowe-esque lock to be non-tendered. I could see a team giving up a negligible return to plug him in at 1B/DH at that price.

Squints

  • Does Woody end up back with Brewers next year?

Read more

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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An 82-80 record is nothing to sneeze at in Kansas City, as it represented just the sixth time in the last 31 years that the Royals topped the .500 mark.  Still, the Royals took a step back after reaching the playoffs in 2024, and will again be looking to bolster their lackluster offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $272MM through 2034 (Witt can opt out after each of the final four years of the contract; Royals can trigger $89MM club option for 2035-37 seasons if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, SP: $43MM through 2027 (includes $3MM buyout of $17MM club/vesting option for 2028)
  • Michael Wacha, SP: $33MM through 2027 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2028)
  • Carlos Estevez, RP: $12MM through 2026 (includes $2M buyout of $13MM club option for 2027)
  • Cole Ragans, SP: $12MM through 2027 (Royals hold arbitration control over Ragans for 2028 season)

Option Decisions

2026 financial commitments (assuming only Perez's option is exercised): $79MM
Total future commitments (assuming only Perez's option is exercised): $385.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Royals got an early jump on their offseason work when they agreed to a contract extension with Seth Lugo just before the trade deadline.  Lugo's previous deal allowed him to opt out of the contract's final year and enter free agency this winter, and the Royals seemed to at least test the trade market just in case an extension couldn't be finalized.  As it turned out, the veteran righty will now be staying in K.C. through at least the 2027 campaign, further solidifying the Royals' starting corps.

The rotation was more good than elite this season, as injuries played a role.  Lugo himself missed about a month and a half due to back and finger issues, Kris Bubic's All-Star season was ended by a rotator cuff strain in late July, and 2024 All-Star Cole Ragans was limited to 13 starts and 61 2/3 innings due to a rotator cuff strain of his own.  The silver lining to these health issues was that Noah Cameron got the opportunity to break into the rotation, as the rookie delivered a 2.99 ERA over his first 138 1/3 frames in the majors.

Better health is obviously no guarantee for 2026, yet assuming the Royals deal with just an average amount of injury misfortune, their rotation looks like one of the more solid on-paper units in baseball.  The Royals have fewer questions about their starting pitching than most clubs, due to both a high talent floor and plenty of depth.  Mutual options are almost always declined anyway, but Michael Lorenzen probably would've been moving on regardless considering all of the other pitching options on hand.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Second Base

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to second base, where the eligibility cutoff is players who either logged at least 50 innings at the position this season or have primarily played there in their careers. Every shortstop could theoretically play second base, and there’ll be teams that have interest in Bo Bichette and/or Ha-Seong Kim on the right side of the infield. They’ll be covered in greater detail with the shortstop preview, so we’ll limit this to true second basemen and/or utility players. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base

Everyday Players

Gleyber Torres (29)

Torres hits the market for a second straight season. He chose a one-year, $15MM pillow contract with the Tigers last time. Torres was coming off a relative down season in his final year with the Yankees. He’d hit .257/.330/.378 across 665 plate appearances, and while that was weighed down by a slow start, teams clearly weren’t making the kind of long-term offers he’d sought.

The stint in Detroit started brilliantly. Torres hit .281/.387/.425 in the first half and was named the AL’s starting second baseman at the All-Star Game. The numbers dropped significantly after that, as he limped to a .223/.320/.339 finish amidst Detroit’s near collapse. He ended the year with numbers that were only a little better than he managed in 2024: .256/.358/.387 with 16 homers over 628 plate appearances.

Torres is a bat-first second baseman who is a good but not great hitter. He’s young enough to have a shot at a four or even five years, but that would’ve been easier to see if his numbers hadn’t crashed in the second half. Free agency generally hasn’t been kind to second basemen in recent years, especially those who aren’t capable of or willing to play other positions. Torres has been adamant about sticking about the position in the past and seemingly rebuffed interest from the Nationals in moving to third base last offseason. It’s not clear if he’ll be more open to moving around the diamond in his second trip to free agency.

The Tigers could make Torres a qualifying offer, which will reportedly come in around $22MM. That looked quite likely early in the season but now seems borderline. The Giants, Angels, Reds, Royals, Astros and potentially Nationals could all be involved if Detroit lets him walk.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 slash line in the regular season. He’s carried the hot bat into October, blasting a couple solo homers off Tarik Skubal on Sunday night to help the Mariners even their Division Series against Detroit.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He logged a little under 300 innings at the keystone overall.

Polanco is eligible for a qualifying offer. Seattle probably wouldn’t want to commit $22MM at the beginning of the offseason, but he has played so well this year that it’s at least a long shot possibility — especially if he helps carry the lineup on a deep playoff run.

Luis Arraez (29)

Arraez also isn’t expected to start 100+ games at second base, though that’s not because of injury. He’s simply not a good defensive player. The Padres have pushed him mostly to first base over the past couple seasons. He only started 10 games and logged 82 innings at second base this year. It’s unlikely teams would want to live with his glove there on an everyday basis, but he could get part-time work while playing mostly first base as he has done in San Diego.

Readers are surely familiar with Arraez’s unique offensive skillset. He’s the sport’s best contact hitter and one of the few players who can be expected to hit close to or above .300. The throwback style doesn’t include many walks or extra-base hits, which becomes more of an issue as he falls further down the defensive spectrum. Baseball Reference has valued Arraez around one Win Above Replacement in consecutive seasons. His free agency will be a test case for how much teams still care about batting average.

Multi-Positional Types

Willi Castro (29)

Castro was one of the better utility players available at the deadline. The switch-hitter had turned in a .250/.335/.398 line over two and a half seasons in Minnesota. He looked to be on track for a solid multi-year contract as free agency approached. Things have gone sharply downhill since he was traded to the Cubs, however. Castro hit .170/.245/.240 in 34 games with Chicago. That dropped his season batting mark to .226/.313/.366 through 454 trips to the dish.

Adam Frazier (34)

The lefty-hitting Frazier was also traded at the deadline. His numbers picked up after the move. Frazier carried a .255/.318/.336 slash in 78 games with the Pirates. He turned in a league-average .283/.320/.402 line in nearly 200 plate appearances in his second stint with the Royals. He finished the year with a .267/.319/.365 line over 459 trips to the plate. Frazier doesn’t take many walks or hit the ball hard, but he’s a plus contact hitter who still grades as a competent defender.

Luis Rengifo (29)

Rengifo has some similarities to Castro. He’s a switch-hitter, relatively young for a free agent, and has had a couple above-average offensive seasons. He has played all over the field but isn’t an especially good defender anywhere. The bat has been good enough to make up for that in previous years. Rengifo combined for a .273/.323/.431 slash in almost 1300 plate appearances between 2022-24. However, he ended the ’24 campaign on the injured list after undergoing wrist surgery, and he’s now coming off the worst full season of his career in ’25. While he appeared in a personal-high 147 games, he managed just a .238/.287/.335 batting line. He should still command a big league deal based on his track record, but it’ll likely be a one-year contract.

Miguel Rojas (37)

Teams know what they’re getting from Rojas, a rock solid defensive infielder who can play a fine shortstop, second base or third base. He’s coming off a second straight decent offensive season, hitting .262/.318/.397 across 317 plate appearances. Rojas isn’t going to put many balls in the seats, but he makes a ton of contact and has enough juice to pick up 20-25 doubles.

Amed Rosario (30)

The Yankees acquired the righty-hitting Rosario from the Nationals at the deadline — one of two utility pickups (along with José Caballero) to complement lefty-swinging infielders Ryan McMahon and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Rosario hit .303 in 16 games in pinstripes and finished the year with a combined .276/.309/.436 line. He has a lifetime .298/.336/.464 slash versus lefty pitching, which should get him another low-cost big league deal.

Team Options

Ozzie Albies (29)

The Braves control Albies on a $7MM option that comes with a $4MM buyout, making it a $3MM decision. That’s still an easy yes even with Albies coming off a second straight middling year and suffering a season-ending hamate fracture. They’re not going to cut their longtime second baseman to save what amounts to low-end utility player/middle reliever money.

Brandon Lowe (31)

Lowe isn’t going to get to free agency either. The Rays have an $11.5MM club option, a bargain for a middle infielder coming off a 31-homer season. He’ll probably be in trade rumors because this will be his final year under club control and that salary is a bit steep by Rays standards, but Tampa Bay would be able to find a solid trade return even if they’d rather reallocate the money.

Minor League Deal Candidates

The Opener: ALDS, Rays, MLBTR Chat

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As the playoffs continue, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. ALDS resumes:

Game 3 of the ALDS is today, with the Yankees and Blue Jays headed to New York while the Mariners and Tigers head to Detroit. For the Yankees, today could be the club’s last stand as they face elimination. Carlos Rodon (3.09 ERA) will take the mound for the club opposite Toronto righty Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA in seven starts). In Detroit, the Tigers will be hoping to take a lead over the Mariners after Seattle managed to tie the series in a game started by Tarik Skubal on Sunday. This time around, Jack Flaherty (4.64 ERA) is on the bump for Detroit against Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA). The Mariners and Tigers are set to play at 4:08pm local time at Comerica Park, while the Blue Jays and Yankees will square off at 8:08pm local time in the Bronx.

2. Rays ownership introductory presser:

The Rays’ new ownership group has officially taken over for longtime owner Stu Sternberg, though Sternberg remains in the fold as a minority stakeholder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that an introductory press conference for the new owners is scheduled to take place at 11:30am local time later today. Patrick Zalupski, the managing partner and co-chair of the organization, will be in attendance alongside new co-chair Bill Cosgrove and new CEO Ken Babby. Per the Rays, the conference will be viewable for fans on the Rays’ YouTube channel among other local options. While personnel changes on the baseball operations side of organization currently appear unlikely, fans will still surely be curious to see if the new owners will be altering the club’s budget going forward. It’s also possible there will be notable updates on the Rays’ stadium situation.

3. MLBTR chat today:

The postseason is underway, and just eight teams remain in the fight as the Division Series continues in both leagues. The rest of MLB is already looking ahead to 2026, with a number of managerial vacancies (plus a GM vacancy in Colorado) yet to be filled. Whether your team is still in the hunt or you’re already turning your attention towards the offseason free agent and trade markets, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 1pm CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (16)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (7)

Braves (9)

Brewers (7)

Cardinals (9)

Cubs (4)

Diamondbacks (11)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (5)

Guardians (8)

Marlins (7)

Mariners (10)

Mets (9)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (14)

Padres (7)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (9)

Rays (17)

Red Sox (9)

Reds (14)

Rockies (7)

Royals (16)

Tigers (15)

Twins (10)

White Sox (3)

Yankees (14)

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents.  Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.

To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back.  These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.

We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion.  These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.

Catchers

Infielder

Outfielder

Pitchers

Orioles Notes: Suarez, Mountcastle, Center Field

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Orioles right-hander Albert Suárez is scheduled for an MRI tomorrow after suffering a season-ending elbow injury, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. That should determine whether the 35-year-old is in danger of any kind of surgery.

This was a lost year for Suárez, who’d been a surprisingly valuable part of the 2024 pitching staff. The journeyman started 24 of 32 appearances a season ago, working to a 3.70 ERA across 133 2/3 innings. Suárez began this year in long relief. He hurt his shoulder after one appearance and was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain that cost him the next four months.

By the time Suárez returned in September, the Orioles were well out of contention. He made four appearances, working nine innings of two-run ball. Then came the elbow inflammation that knocked him out for the year and raises questions about his future. Suárez is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $900K salary. That’s more than reasonable if the Orioles expect him to be healthy next season, but any kind of serious injury could lead them to drop him from the 40-man roster.

Suárez is one of 14 Baltimore players who’ll be eligible for arbitration. Ryan Mountcastle has the highest projected salary of the group at $7.8MM. It’d be a surprise if the O’s bring him back for that amount after an injury-plagued season. Mountcastle suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain at the end of May. That kept him on the injured list beyond the trade deadline. He was healthy for the final six weeks and slashed .255/.293/.393 across 157 plate appearances. He struck out in nearly one third of his trips to the plate.

The 28-year-old had also struggled early in the season. He finished the year with a .250/.286/.367 line while hitting seven homers in 89 games. The Orioles used him as a part-time player down the stretch, giving everyday first base work to 23-year-old Coby Mayo. Even if neither Mayo nor rookie catcher/designated hitter Samuel Basallo had a good season, the O’s will probably look for a cheaper veteran bench bat to work behind those younger hitters.

Mountcastle acknowledged uncertainty about his future during the final weekend of the regular season (link via Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). The 2015 third-round pick noted that he “can’t control things that happen” with the team’s decision but praised the coaches and teammates with whom he’s worked over his decade in the organization. Baltimore will probably shop him in trade, but they could have a hard time finding interest at that arbitration salary. A non-tender seems likelier. That would send him to free agency and make him an interesting rebound candidate for clubs on a cheaper one-year deal.

Elsewhere in the lineup, the O’s have a question mark in center field. After Cedric Mullins was traded at the deadline, the Orioles played Colton Cowser up the middle. While his small-sample defensive grades were tolerable, his average speed makes him a better fit in right field over a full season. Cowser had a terrible second half at the plate, hitting .178/.263/.340 after the All-Star Break. He missed time with a concussion and played through broken ribs that he suffered in June.

The O’s don’t have a ton of in-house alternatives. Dylan Beavers played exclusively in the corner outfield as a rookie. He’s an above-average runner who has some center field experience in the minors, yet he played more right field coming up through the system. Former first-rounder Enrique Bradfield is a no-doubt center fielder who hit well in Double-A, but he batted .179 in 15 games after a late-season promotion to Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll probably begin the year in the minors.

Jake Rill of MLB.com suggested this morning that the O’s should look for an external upgrade, ideally one who hits from the right side. Cowser, Beavers, and Bradfield each hit left-handed. Harrison Bader fits that bill in free agency, but he should sign somewhere that offers everyday playing time on at least a strong two-year contract. They could add a fourth/fifth outfielder like Jose Siri on a cheap one-year deal or look for a glove-first complementary type on the trade market. Tyrone Taylor (Mets), Jacob Young (Nationals), Blake Perkins (Brewers) and Dane Myers (Marlins) are a few speculative glove-first possibilities who shouldn’t require a huge prospect return if the O’s go that route.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: First Base

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher

The Top Guys

Alonso is signed through 2026 but he has an opt-out and has already said that he will use it, so he’ll be back on the open market for a second year in a row. That’s the outcome he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were hoping for. Last winter, he couldn’t find a satisfactory long-term commitment, so he pivoted to the short-term, opt-out path. The hope with that strategy as that a better platform year and a lack of qualifying offer would lead to a more robust market.

The lack of QO is already assured, as a player can only receive one in his career. Alonso also held up his end of the bargain by having a better walk year. His home run total went from 34 to 38. His batting average climbed from .240 to .272 and his on-base percentage from .329 to .347. His strikeout rate dropped as his batted ball data at Statcast improved. That led to a wRC+ jump from 121 to 141. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.6 wins above replacement this year, almost double last year’s 2.1 tally.

That improvement should help him in free agency but it’s still unknown if a long-term contract will be out there for him. In the past seven years, Freddie Freeman is the only free agent first baseman to get a deal longer than three seasons. There have been some long extensions, including for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Olson, but those players were still in their 20s. Alonso’s defense has never been strong and has been especially poor in the last two years. Now that he’s about to turn 31 in December, teams may be wary about how he will age into his mid-30s.

Concerns aside, Alonso will be one of the best bats available. The Mets seemed genuinely willing to let him depart last winter, so the teams outside of Queens should have a legitimate shot at getting him.

Naylor doesn’t quite have the offensive ceiling as Alonso but he’s pretty solidly above average at the plate. He hit 20 home runs this year, his fourth straight season of getting that number to at least 17. He doesn’t walk a ton but doesn’t strike out either. His 13.7% strikeout rate this year was barely half of the 22.2% league average. His .295/.353/.462 line translated to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter overall. That makes four straight seasons for Naylor with a wRC+ between 118 and 128.

Like most lefties, he’s better against right-handed pitching, but his splits aren’t extreme. His wRC+ against southpaws has been between 104 and 126 in each of the past three seasons, perfectly acceptable production.

He also has other intriguing qualities. The reviews on his glovework are mixed but not awful. He has 12 Outs Above Average at first base in his career. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -5 overall but that includes a -6 grade in 2024 which looks like an outlier. He’s been close to par in every other season of his career.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths, with Statcast crediting him with second percentile sprint speed, but he has shown a knack for stealing bases regardless. He swiped six to ten bags in the three prior seasons coming into 2025. This year, he cranked that way up to 30, including a shocking 19 steals after being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

On top of his skills, Naylor’s market should be helped by his relative youth and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer as a player traded midseason. As mentioned in the Alonso section, big league teams haven’t given many long deals to free agent first basemen recently, but Naylor’s reliability and relative youth could help him buck that trend.

A few years ago, O’Hearn looked like a lost cause with the Royals. However, he’s now coming off a strong three-year run as an above-average regular, mostly with the Orioles but also with the Padres after a deadline trade.

He hit 17 home runs this year and slashed .281/.366/.437 for a 127 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a .277/.343/.445 line and 121 wRC+. Like Naylor, he doesn’t have Alonso’s huge offensive upside but he’s been a consistently strong contributor. Similar to Naylor, he’s a lefty without strong platoon concerns. O’Hearn had a 108 wRC+ against southpaws in 2023. That dipped to 74 last year but he brought it up to 135 this year. Overall, he has a .261/.326/.442 slash and a 116 wRC+ against lefties over the past three years.

O’Hearn’s glovework seems acceptable as well. He has four OAA at first base in his career. His -12 DRS total isn’t pretty but most of that came earlier in his career. He was credited with 4 DRS here in 2025. He can also play a corner outfield spot in a pinch.

Due to his late breakout, O’Hearn is older than both Alonso and Naylor. That will limit his market to shorter deals but he should be helped by a lack of a QO. Since he was traded midseason, he’s ineligible to receive one.

Everyday Players

The book on Arráez is well known at this point. He hardly ever walks but he’s also almost impossible to strike out. There’s not a ton of power but he’s the best contact hitter in the league. His 3.1% strikeout rate this year was easily the best in the majors among qualified hitters. Jacob Wilson came a distant second with a 7.5% rate.

However, Arráez’s overall production has been trending down lately. In 2022 and 2023, he had a combined .335/.384/.445 batting line and 131 wRC+. He had a .347 batting average on balls in play but that actually wasn’t too high for him personally. His swing seems perfectly designed to drop singles in between the infield and the outfield, so he has regularly had BABIPs in the .320 to .370 range, even though league average is usually around .290.

Over the past two years, he’s dropped down to a combined .303/.337/.392 line and 107 wRC+. The cause of that could be debated. He was playing through a torn thumb ligament last year and only hit four home runs. He’s never been a huge power guy but he’s usually good for eight to ten long balls a year. This year, this thumb has presumably healed and he hit eight homers, but his BABIP dropped to .289. That’s probably not all luck, as his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate have all dropped in recent seasons.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths and isn’t especially well regarded on defense. He does have 2 DRS at first in his career but his -14 OAA mark is dreadful. His best trait is the ability to put the bat on the ball. He’s still doing that but with lesser results over the past two years. Put it all together and it’s one of the tougher markets to predict, but some team will find a lineup spot for him.

Bell is one of the most hot-and-cold bats in the majors, but he always seems to find his way to a solid season in the end. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the rebuilding Nationals coming into 2025. His first half was rough but he finished strong. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 line and 109 wRC+ over 533 plate appearances.

It’s been a long time since he was an All-Star, but Bell has never been on the injured list for more than a few days. He has appeared in at least 140 games in every full season going back to 2018. He hasn’t been a flashy player for a few years now but has still been solid. In the past three seasons, he hit between 19 and 22 home runs with respectable strikeout and walk rates. His wRC+ finished between 101 and 109 in all three of those campaigns.

His defense isn’t great and he hasn’t stolen a base since 2018. But for clubs who want a plug-and-play first baseman/designated hitter who should be in the lineup and contributing from time to time, Bell will be there and won’t be expensive.

Hoskins had a strong run with the Phillies as one of the most consistent power hitters in the league. However, his recent career has been more tumultuous. He suffered a torn ACL during spring training in 2023 and missed that entire season. He became a free agent and signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers, with an opt-out chance halfway through.

Both Hoskins and the Brewers were likely hoping for him to rebound after his lost year and then return to free agency. It hasn’t played out that way. His 2024 started strong, but he faded later in the year and finished with a .214/.303/.419 line and 101 wRC+. After that tepid year, he decided not to opt out and returned to the Brewers for 2025. He was a bit better this year on a rate basis, with a .237/.332/.416 line and 109 wRC+.

Unfortunately, a thumb sprain put him on the IL in July. While he was out, Andrew Vaughn took his job and ran with it. Hoskins was reinstated from the IL with about three weeks left in the season but hardly played, with Vaughn at first base and Christian Yelich in the DH spot most days. Hoskins was not included on Milwaukee’s NLDS roster. He’ll head into free agency without a lot of juice since his recent seasons haven’t been great, but he’s still been an above-average hitter on the whole. His deal has a mutual option for 2026 but it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was picked up by both sides.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Flores battled knee troubles throughout 2024 and put up awful numbers. He bounced back somewhat in 2025, with production close to league average, though he didn’t get a ton of playing time in the second half as San Francisco’s acquisition of Rafael Devers squeezed Flores into a short-side platoon role with Dominic Smith. A right-handed hitter, Flores has been better against lefties in his career but had reverse splits this year. He finished the season with a .241/.307/.379 line and 95 wRC+.

France had a strong run from 2020 to 2023 but he’s now had two straight years of subpar offense. He signed a one-year deal with the Twins coming into 2025 and got flipped to the Blue Jays as part of the Louis Varland deadline deal. France finished the regular season with a .257/.320/.360 line and 92 wRC+. He finished the season on the IL due to an oblique injury and was left off Toronto’s ALDS roster.

The Yankees signed Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5MM deal in the offseason. He got out to a hot start but quickly ran out of gas. He had a .338/.394/.495 line and 148 wRC+ at the end of May but then slashed .226/.277/.333 for a 69 wRC+ the rest of the way. As he struggled, he got bumped into the short side of a platoon, with Ben Rice starting against most righties and Goldschmidt mostly facing lefties. Goldy had a 74 wRC+ against righties this year but a 169 wRC+ against lefties. Based on his track record, he could still get an everyday job somewhere. But considering his age and widening platoon splits, he might fit best as a veteran mentor and lefty masher/bench bat.

Santana has defied the aging curve by remaining a solid player into his late 30s, but 2025 wasn’t his best year. He slashed .219/.308/.325 for a wRC+ of 82. The Guardians released him in late August. He latched on with the Cubs but didn’t play much. Santana consented to an optional assignment late in the year and wasn’t on the club’s playoff roster. He’s still a great defender and the plate discipline is still good, so he could garner interest even as a 40-year-old coming off a rough year at the plate.

Smith spent the first few months of the season with the Yankees on a minor league deal. He opted out of that pact in the summer and signed with the Giants. He finished his season strong with a .284/.333/.417 line and 111 wRC+ in 63 games with San Francisco. Almost all of that production came against righties. The Giants only let him face southpaws 27 times and he had a .200/.259/.280 line in those matchups.

Solano has been a pretty solid big league hitter going back to 2019 but is coming off a down year. He was released by the Mariners in September and briefly latched on with the Rangers. Between those two clubs, he hit .247/.291/.337 for an 82 wRC+. He is capable of playing other positions but only got very brief looks at second and third base this year.

Tellez also split his time between the Mariners and Rangers in 2025. He hit a combined .228/.276/.443 for a 101 wRC+. He finished with a bit of momentum, as he slashed .259/.315/.457 with the Rangers down the stretch for a 115 wRC+ with that club. Still, it’s been two straight years with poor plate discipline and overall production around league average.

Turner has been staying away from Father Time throughout his late 30s but seems to finally have been caught. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Cubs but hit .219/.288/.314 for a 71 wRC+ this season. He is on the Cubs’ playoff roster but hasn’t played much. His deal has a mutual option for 2026, but that won’t be picked up.

Wade had a strong run with the Giants from 2021 to 2024 but just had the worst season of his career. He slashed .167/.271/.254 in 242 plate appearances in 2025. He was designated for assignment by the Giants in June and landed with the Angels, but the latter club released him in early August. He didn’t sign anywhere else in the final two months of the season.

Options

Perez is primarily a catcher but has been spending more time at first base in recent years. It’s a fairly moot point for the free agent market, as Kansas City isn’t going to let its captain go. He is a franchise legend and he can be kept around for 2026 via a $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, making it a net $11.5MM decision. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has already essentially said Perez will be back in next year, so it seems the Royals will either pick up the option or work out a new extension.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bigig, Imagn Images

N.L. Notes: Horton, Chourio, Bader

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Cubs right-hander Cade Horton is potentially making some progress. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, he will throw off a mound this week as the club decides whether or not to include him on the NLCS roster, if they advance that far.

Horton debuted this year and hit the ground running. He logged 118 innings for the Cubs with a 2.67 earned run average. Unfortunately, his season ended on a sour note. Horton suffered a rib fracture in September and it was immediately apparent that he would miss at least one playoff series. The Cubs survived the Wild Card round without him but he still wasn’t on the roster for their NLDS matchup against the Brewers.

The Chicago rotation is feeling thin at the moment, composed of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Boyd just got rocked by the Brewers on Saturday. He was charged with six runs, only two of them being earned, as he failed to get out of the first inning. The Cubs went on to lose 9-3. Imanaga and Taillon were both decent this year but both had subpar strikeout rates. If the Cubs can hang on for a best-of-seven NLCS, getting Horton in there to take some pressure of those guys could be a difference maker.

Mooney also adds that the Cubs expect Horton to earn a full year of service time, which is understandable. As a top prospect who was promoted late enough that he wasn’t slated to get a full service year, he can earn that full year retroactively by finishing top two in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. Horton and Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin are considered the frontrunners for that award, so Horton will likely get that full service year. That would put him on track to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.

Some other injury updates from around the league…

  • Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is in tonight’s lineup, batting leadoff against the Cubs. Chourio left the first game due to some right hamstring tightness. A subsequent MRI led to results which Pat Murphy described as “inconclusive,” adding that it’s “not a serious hamstring strain.” That implied that Chourio did indeed strain his hamstring, though the club is apparently comfortable running him out there tonight. Murphy said today, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that Chourio is not 100% and they’ll take him out of the game if it appears necessary.
  • Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader was removed from his club’s first NLDS game against the Dodgers due to a groin injury. He’s not in tonight’s Game Two lineup but he could be available to pinch hit. Manager Rob Thomson passed the new on to reporters, including Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Bader is an excellent defender and he hit .305/.361/.463 after being acquired from the Twins at the deadline, so the Phillies will obviously want him back in there as soon as possible. The Phils have Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos in the lineup tonight from left to right. Max Kepler is also in the mix, though he’s probably not starting tonight since lefty Blake Snell is on the bump for the Dodgers.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Dodgers Notes: Smith, Ohtani, Glasnow

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The Dodgers took the first game of their NLDS matchup against the Phillies. As they gear up for the second contest, manager Dave Roberts revealed some notes about the roster. Notably, Roberts said that Will Smith could start behind the plate in Game Three, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

The club has largely been without Smith for about a month. He took a foul ball off his throwing hand in early September, suffering a hairline fracture, and hasn’t played much since. He has been on the club’s postseason roster but hasn’t started a game yet. He did enter the first game against Philly as a pinch hitter, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. Ben Rortvedt has taken up the lion’s share of playing time with Smith out and is in the starting lineup again tonight but it seems possible Smith is trending towards retaking that playing time.

That’s potentially a huge boost for the Dodgers. Smith had a massive .296/.404/.497 line and 153 wRC+ this year. Rortvedt has managed a massive .500/.571/.667 line in the playoffs this year, but in a tiny sample of just three games. He’s obviously not going to maintain that production, especially when considering his .190/.279/.270 line in his regular season career. Even though Smith is getting healthier, he may not be immediately available to resume his previous level of production, so his condition could be an ongoing storyline as long as the Dodgers stay alive.

Roberts also confirmed the club’s rotation plans. Game one starter Shohei Ohtani will take the ball in game five, if necessary, and won’t be available out of the bullpen before then. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among the reporters to pass that along.

It’s quite common for starting pitchers to be available in the bullpen during the playoffs. More off-days allow clubs to shrink their rotations, which leads to some guys getting nudged out. Also, the “all hands on deck” nature of playoff baseball makes teams and players push things beyond normal comfort levels.

The idea of Ohtani making relief appearances has been kicked around but it’s understandable why the Dodgers would lean against it. For one thing, his workload is already double that of the normal player, given his status as a two-way player. Adding in some extra relief work would only tax him further.

There’s also the in-game strategy component of it. MLB implemented a rule in 2022 that would allow a starting pitcher to be removed from his pitching duties but stay in the game as the designated hitter. This basically only applies to Ohtani, so it’s often referred to as the “Shohei Ohtani rule”. But if Ohtani is not the starting pitcher and enters as a reliever, then is removed, he would have to either come out of the game or play a defensive position.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s understandable that the Dodgers are keeping things simple. Blake Snell is starting game two tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the ball in game three. It seems likely that Tyler Glasnow will start game four, though he did make a relief appearance on Saturday. He came in after Ohtani and logged an inning and two thirds, throwing 34 pitches in the process. Despite that relief outing, Roberts said yesterday that Glasnow was in line to start Game Four, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Ohtani would then start Game Five, though Snell would also be on normal rest by then and could be a factor.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

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