Quick Hits: Unsigned Free Agents, Opt-Outs
There’s already buzz about what could be a brilliant 2018-19 free agent class, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. That year’s market could include Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Manny Machado. Also, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Jason Heyward will have opt-out clauses. Of course, some of that first group of players could sign extensions, and there’s no telling if they’ll be as valuable then as they are now, but that looks like a stunning amount of talent. Harper notes that many of the Yankees‘ bigger contracts will have expired by then, and he quotes an executive suggesting the Yanks could potentially use the intervening years to get under the luxury tax threshold and throw their weight around in 2018-19. Here’s more from around baseball.
- A number of key free agents remain unsigned, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal cites a number of reasons why. The qualifying offer is one factor, but another is that some traditionally free-spending teams (including the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers and Rangers) have not spent heavily. The trade market is another element, particularly on the outfield and starting pitching markets. Of course, top free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton are highly unlikely to remain unsigned in a couple months, and Rosenthal points out that, for example, Max Scherzer and James Shields signed fairly late in last winter’s offseason. But he also proposes a couple of outside-the-box ideas to get unexpected teams involved in the market, including teams with protected draft picks signing top free agents and then trading them to teams without protected picks, thus somewhat circumventing the qualifying offer system.
- Opt-out clauses have become increasingly trendy in contracts for top free agents, notes Jamal Collier of Sports On Earth. Price’s contract contains an opt-out after 2018, and Heyward’s allows him to opt out that year or (under certain circumstances) after 2019. Johnny Cueto‘s deal allows him to opt out after two years. Zack Greinke, of course, entered free agency after exercising an opt-out in his previous deal. Most players who have received out clauses in recent years (including Greinke, Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, and several others) have exercised them, reflecting the degree to which revenues have grown within baseball.
West Notes: Dodgers, Blash, Astros
The Dodgers‘ luxury tax bill for the year came to $43.6MM, Ronald Blum of the AP reports. For luxury-tax purposes, the Dodgers had a payroll of $297.9MM. As luxury-tax offenders for the third consecutive year, they were taxed at a 40% rate for the amount by which they exceeded the tax threshold of $189MM. The Yankees, meanwhile, will pay $26.1MM, while the Red Sox owe $1.8MM and the Giants $1.3MM. The $72.8MM between the four teams amounts to the record amount of luxury tax collected in a season, Blum reports. That the Dodgers’ bill was so steep comes as little surprise, of course — their 2015 payroll, headed by large expenditures for players like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, was the highest in MLB history. Here’s more from the West divisions.
- Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune profiles new Padres outfielder Jabari Blash, who the Athletics selected from the Mariners in this month’s Rule 5 Draft and then traded to San Diego. The 26-year-old Blash looked like one of the best potential power sources available in the Rule 5 — he batted .271/.370/.576 and hit 32 homers between Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma in 2015. Interestingly, Blash grew up in the Virgin Islands, and one of the first offers of congratulations he received was from Callix Crabbe, a former infielder from the Virgin Islands who the Padres selected in the Rule 5 Draft in 2007.
- The surprising package the Astros gave up to get Ken Giles from the Phillies reflects an industry-wide trend in which relievers capable of pitching high-leverage innings are valued more highly, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes. The Astros gave up Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel in the Giles deal. They re-signed another reliever, Tony Sipp, to a hefty three-year, $18MM contract. The belief that good relievers are fundamentally less valuable than good starting pitchers or position players has long been widely held, but perhaps that’s changing, at least to a degree. “You’d have to say that as an industry, we’re valuing a team that’s in contention needs to have those guys at the back end of the bullpen,” says Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. “We’ve seen what the Royals have been able to do with a successful execution of that strategy, and the Mets with (Jeurys) Familia, and there’s good late-inning relievers on the teams that make it to and win in the playoffs.”
NL Central Notes: Heyward, Cubs, Cardinals, McCutchen
Jason Heyward says one reason he chose the Cubs over the Cardinals is that the Cubs’ young core is likely to be with the team longer than the Cardinals’ core is. “You have Yadier (Molina), who is going to be done in two years maybe. You have Matt Holliday, who is probably going to be done soon,” Heyward told reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “I felt like if I was to look up in three years and see a completely different team, that would kind of be difficult.” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny says he believes in the core of his team and takes issue with Heyward’s comments, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. “I don’t blame him. But I don’t like it,” says Matheny. “I don’t think we have anything to apologize for in having a group like a Holliday, a Molina, a Wainwright. … [H]e’s a young player. But I can’t say I’m in any kind of agreement with that (Chicago) core being better than any kind of core that we have.” Here’s more from the NL Central.
- Elsewhere in Hummel’s article, Cards GM John Mozeliak expresses a bit of frustration that the Cardinals’ biggest offseason targets — presumably players like Heyward and David Price — opted to head elsewhere. “Our success has really come from our pipeline, and I think we’re really going to lean on that. The last month has been trying to play in the big-boy pool, and unfortunately we just didn’t end up getting it done,” says Mozeliak. “Sometimes it’s not always about what you’re doing. You need the other party to want to be there, too.”
- Jason Heyward’s mammoth deal with the Cubs got some reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, wondering how much it might cost a club to sign Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen if he reaches the open market after the 2018 season. For his part, McCutchen doesn’t want to speculate on his own dollar value, but he did reaffirm his loyalty to Pittsburgh. “This is still a place I do want to be,” McCutchen said. “I love it here. If that’s something that they can do, that’s something they can do. I really can’t answer from their end. We’ll see what happens in the future.” Of course, as Brink points out, Heyward in 2015 and McCutchen in 2018 are two separate cases. Heyward got his monster contract, in part, because he is only 26 years of age. Following the 2018 season, McCutchen will be 32.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Athletics Still Pursuing Scott Kazmir
The Athletics are still among the contenders to sign free agent lefty Scott Kazmir, Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com writes. Via Stiglich, A’s exec Billy Beane said earlier this month that the team might not have the flexibility to sign a free agent starter to a multi-year contract, but it appears it’s still a possibility that they will.
Late last week, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman wrote that Kazmir had at least two offers for three-year deals, likely in the $12MM-$13MM range. Heyman also indicated that a four-year offer for Kazmir would likely be enough to sign him. Other possible suitors for Kazmir include the Royals, Orioles and Dodgers, Heyman notes. Kazmir has also recently been connected to the Astros.
The A’s have loaded up on pitching this offseason, adding Rich Hill, Ryan Madson, John Axford, Liam Hendriks and Marc Rzepczynski to their staff and also working on an incentive-laden deal with Henderson Alvarez. Needless to say, a deal to bring back Kazmir (who ranked No. 18 on Tim Dierkes’ list of the top 50 free agents) would be the biggest of those additions — Kazmir’s performance with the Athletics before they shipped him to Houston in July was one of a small number of bright spots in a tough season for Oakland.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- On a conference call, MLBTR asked Steve Cishek about his decision to sign with the Mariners and whether he had opportunities to close elsewhere. “There were a couple other teams [with significant interest], but not too many closing opportunities out there. For me, Seattle was the No. 1 place I wanted to go when I heard that they wanted me to be their closer,” Cishek said.
- On the most recent edition of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, free agent Todd Coffey joined host Jeff Todd to talk about his career in the pen and his current comeback attempt. Coffey, who plans to throw for teams in January, says he feels healthy and wants to be able to pitch multiple innings for his next MLB club. Steve Adams also chatted with Jeff about what’s up ahead in the hard-to-predict offseason market. A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- On Thursday, MLBTR was the first to report that the Braves designated right-hander Brandon Cunniff for assignment. Cunniff, 27, made his big league debut with the Braves in 2015, working to a 4.63 ERA with an impressive 37 strikeouts in 35 innings of work out of the Atlanta bullpen. However, he also yielded 22 walks in that time, which contributed to his somewhat elevated earned run average
- Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
Dodgers Notes: Cueto, Friedman, Chapman
Here’s a look at the Dodgers:
- In an interview with MLB Network Radio, agent Bryce Dixon said that the Dodgers were in on Johnny Cueto “up until the last couple days” (Twitter links via Jon Morosi of FOX Sports). Dixon thought that Cueto would have been a “real good fit” for the Dodgers, but, in the end, the Giants made the stronger offer. At the Winter Meetings in Nashville (before a deal was struck with the Giants) Dixon told MLBTR that he thought Cueto could help form a strong rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles.
- Mark Whicker of the Los Angeles Daily News isn’t sure that he understands Andrew Friedman’s plan for the Dodgers. He doesn’t feel that Friedman has made unwise deals, but he also doesn’t feel that Friedman’s moves fit together well. Whicker is also concerned about the Dodgers’ lack of a clear No. 2 next to Kershaw after the departure of Greinke and Cueto signing with the Giants. He opines that landing Jose Fernandez from the Marlins would be the best way to fill the No. 2 spot in the rotation and also supports the idea of trading for Rays hurler Jake Odorizzi, something L.A. has explored.
- The Dodgers are damned if the do and damned if they don’t, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. If the Dodgers retained Zack Greinke, signed Hisashi Iwakuma, and dealt for Aroldis Chapman, they’d get slammed for spending too much. Now that they haven’t made those moves (for different reasons), some folks are critical of what they view as inaction on the part of Los Angeles’ front office. “I remind the thin-skinned people in front offices of the smart words Hyman Roth gave Michael Corleone in that hotel room in Havana — ‘This is the business we have chosen,’ ” Dodgers president Stan Kasten said by phone. “The criticism and fishbowl scrutiny is just part of the business. … I am really proud to represent a team that has won 90 games and the division title [each of the last three years]. Yet, that is not good enough for our fans, the media, ownership and me. That is the way it should be. We are the Dodgers, we represent Los Angeles. We should expect to compete for the top every year. Criticism is what goes along with that, which is just fine.”
Wei-Yin Chen On Nationals’ Radar
The Nationals are on the lookout for starting pitching now that Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister are out of the picture and their hunt has led them to at least consider one of the best options still available. Free agent Wei-Yin Chen is on the Nationals‘ radar, a source tells Bill Ladson of MLB.com, though that source isn’t sure whether Washington would give him the five-year deal that he is seeking.
Every team in the league would obviously love to add a solid starter like Chen, but his price tag has so far left him dangling on the market without a ton of buzz as to where he might land. Last week, it was reported that the Scott Boras client is seeking a five-year, $100MM commitment. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected that Chen would land a five-year deal worth $80MM. Chen is – at least for now – aiming a whole lot higher.
The Nationals were recently said to have some interest in right-hander Mike Leake and GM Mike Rizzo even confirmed that an offer was made. However, the price tag was apparently too rich for their blood and their interest quickly cooled off. Overall, Rizzo indicated that the club hasn’t been very active on the market for starters. The Nats already have a top three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez plus Tanner Roark and Joe Ross in the backend. Beyond them, youngsters like A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito knocking on the door.
The 30-year-old Chen is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15. Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work. Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles earlier this offseason, so signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. That’s a notable disadvantage for Chen compared to quality pitchers remaining on the free agent market such as Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda. Late last month, Tim took an in-depth look at Chen and speculated on the type of deal he could land.
Right now, there isn’t an obvious landing spot for Chen. Cardinals appeared to be a solid fit for a pitcher like Chen but GM John Mozeliak recently said that the team is unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing at this stage of the offseason. The Giants were known to have some level of interest in Chen, but they are almost definitely out on high-priced pitching after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this winter.
Cafardo On Victorino, Cahill, Cubs
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with managing general partner of Sapient Global Markets Dave Donovan, who is trying to apply banking principles to baseball in order to help limit risk on the part of teams.
“Because there’s such an emphasis by teams on acquiring the right players, especially now where you have financial constraints with luxury taxes, etc., we’re looking at it the same way as we do with banks,” Donovan said. “Banks want to make as much money as they possibly can. Their constraint is regulation. They have stress tests they have to do for the government after banks almost took down the world because they weren’t financially compliant. We’ve been working with these banks to measure their risks and you can apply the same concepts in sports…Your roster is no different than a portfolio of securities. Those are your assets. That’s what you’ve put your investment in, so it only makes sense that you should monitor your assets”
When considering risk management, Cafardo wonders aloud if the Red Sox‘s decision to sign David Price to a seven-year, $217MM was a prudent one. Cafardo speculates that the hedge fund operator in owner John Henry probably wasn’t thrilled about the move. However, in the short-term, he knew that Boston needed an ace pitcher.
Here’s more from today’s column:
- Shane Victorino’s agent, John Boggs, said a couple of teams have shown interest in his client, but no deal is imminent at this time. Boggs added that the veteran is looking to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish his value. The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .230/.308/.292 in 2015 in 204 combined plate appearances for the Red Sox and Angels. Still, he’s only two years removed from his 2013 campaign in which he slashed .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers for Boston. Victorino, who plans on getting back to switch-hitting, celebrated his 35th birthday in late November.
- Right-hander Trevor Cahill had an opportunity to sign with the Pirates or Orioles as a starting pitcher, Cafardo writes. However, he opted to stay with the Cubs where he will be used in a relief role. Cahill’s clear preference was to start again, but he also didn’t want to leave Chicago. Cahill gave the Cubs 17 brilliant innings of relief down the stretch, yielding just four runs and recording an outstanding 22-to-5 K/BB ratio to go along with a ground-ball rate of 61.8 percent. He also pitched 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts (3.38 ERA).
- Ron Gardenhire lost out on the Padres’ job but “the feeling” is that he could always go back to the Twins organization and work in some capacity. However, Gardenhire’s preference would be to manage for a major league team again. Gardenhire has extensive postseason experience from his time with the Twins, having led the club to six AL Central Division titles in 13 seasons and also bringing the team to a Game 163 tiebreaker that was lost to the White Sox in 2008. However he also has a disappointing 6-21 record in the playoffs, having only captured one series victory (against the A’s in 2002).
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Harper, Upton, McCutcher
Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere:
- Section 215 thinks the Phillies can go for Bryce Harper.
- Camden Depot says Justin Upton is a safer choice than Chris Davis.
- TPOP wonders when the Bucs may consider moving Andrew McCutchen.
- Same Page Team drew up a checklist for Toronto.
- Socratic Gadfly reacted to Jason Heyward leaving the Cards.
- Dodgers Prospects profiled Jose De Leon.
- Matthew Musico says the Cards shouldn’t panic.
- AriBall broke down the Red Sox’s signing of David Price.
- Outside Pitch wonders which lefty reliever the Yankees will sign.
- Redbird Rants wonders if Joey Votto could come to STL.
- Brew Crew Ball examined Jon Singleton as a trade candidate.
- Inside The Zona wonders whether the Diamondbacks on the right path.
- MLB Reports checked in on the Royals.
- Jays Journal looked into Drew Hutchison’s struggles.
- Roto Professor says the Dodgers may have won the 3-way trade.
- Rays Colored Glasses broke down the Rays’ shortstop competition.
- Wayniac Nation reflected on the ’95 Braves.
- Baseball Essential says the Blue Jays should land Chris Davis.
- When Sid Slid wonders what’s next for Atlanta.
- Pirates Breakdown wants the Bucs to exploit the three-year opt-out.
- Royals Podcast wants KC to keep Alex Gordon.
Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Nationals Notes: Phillips, Profar, Desmond
The latest on the Nats:
- Among the issues the Reds needed to resolve with Brandon Phillips was the question of money deferred in the six-year, $72.5MM contract extension he signed in 2012, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post writes. The Nats appeared to be on the cusp of trading for the second baseman earlier this week until Phillips declined to waive his no-trade clause.
- Now that the Phillips deal appears to be dead – or at least on hold – the Nationals could consider Jurickson Profar of the Rangers as a trade possibility, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. However, Profar’s health situation probably means that a deal wouldn’t take place until March. GM Jon Daniels told reporters back in November that he was getting trade interest on the oft-injured Profar, though he added that teams were looking to buy low on him. Profar, who missed the entire 2014 season after twice tearing a muscle in his shoulder, underwent right shoulder surgery in February. Profar ranked as the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, receiving that distinction from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law. He made his debut as a 20-year-old that season and homered in his first big league plate appearance, though he went on to struggle, relatively speaking, to a .234/.308/.366 batting line in 324 plate appearances that season.
- On Saturday night, ex-GM Dan O’Dowd (writing for MLB.com) ran down five players who he feels won’t be signing anytime soon. At the top of the list is Nationals free agent shortstop Ian Desmond. O’Dowd feels that Desmond will be driven to get an offer as good as the seven-year, $107MM extension he reportedly turned down from the Nats last offseason and that could lead to a prolonged stint in free agency. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond only produced a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Desmond would net a five-year, $80MM deal on the open market. Of course, he comes with a qualifying offer attached.