Nationals Notes: Phillips, Profar, Desmond
The latest on the Nats:
- Among the issues the Reds needed to resolve with Brandon Phillips was the question of money deferred in the six-year, $72.5MM contract extension he signed in 2012, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post writes. The Nats appeared to be on the cusp of trading for the second baseman earlier this week until Phillips declined to waive his no-trade clause.
- Now that the Phillips deal appears to be dead – or at least on hold – the Nationals could consider Jurickson Profar of the Rangers as a trade possibility, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com. However, Profar’s health situation probably means that a deal wouldn’t take place until March. GM Jon Daniels told reporters back in November that he was getting trade interest on the oft-injured Profar, though he added that teams were looking to buy low on him. Profar, who missed the entire 2014 season after twice tearing a muscle in his shoulder, underwent right shoulder surgery in February. Profar ranked as the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, receiving that distinction from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law. He made his debut as a 20-year-old that season and homered in his first big league plate appearance, though he went on to struggle, relatively speaking, to a .234/.308/.366 batting line in 324 plate appearances that season.
- On Saturday night, ex-GM Dan O’Dowd (writing for MLB.com) ran down five players who he feels won’t be signing anytime soon. At the top of the list is Nationals free agent shortstop Ian Desmond. O’Dowd feels that Desmond will be driven to get an offer as good as the seven-year, $107MM extension he reportedly turned down from the Nats last offseason and that could lead to a prolonged stint in free agency. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond only produced a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Desmond would net a five-year, $80MM deal on the open market. Of course, he comes with a qualifying offer attached.
Latest On Braves, Ender Inciarte
Ender Inciarte has been a member of the Braves for less than three weeks and teams are already trying to pry him away. Since acquiring the outfielder, Braves GM John Coppolella says that he has been contacted by more teams with interest in Inciarte than there were with Shelby Miller (Twitter links via Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports). The GM says that like Miller, the Braves are not necessarily looking to move Inciarte. Of course, the Braves wound up trading Miller when they got a sizable offer from the D’Backs.
Ultimately, Coppolella says that he is open to dealing “any player not named Freddie Freeman” if the price is right. It has been reported that the Braves’ plan is to keep Inciarte in the organization and use him as a leadoff hitter and center fielder for the foreseeable future. Still, if there are more teams in on Inciarte than there were on Miller, than it stands to reason that Atlanta could get a package strong enough to part with him. It was reported in late November that “as many as 20 teams” checked in on the right-hander.
Inciarte, 25, was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015. Inciarte is an elite defender at any of the three outfield spots; he’s amassed 52 Defensive Runs Saved in just 1972 innings at the Major League level or, if you prefer, +33.7 runs, per Ultimate Zone Rating.
While he lacks much in the way of power and may see his surface-level rate stats decline by moving away from the hitters’ haven that is Phoenix’s Chase Field, Inciarte is expected to help the Braves’ chances both in 2016 and into the next planned phase of the team’s status as contenders. Of course, with five years of club control to go, there are tons of clubs who would like to add Inciarte to the fold as well.
Bronson Arroyo Drawing Interest From Multiple Teams
Free agent hurler Bronson Arroyo is drawing interest from multiple teams this winter, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark (on Twitter). So far, the Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Padres, Braves, Reds, and Phillies have all called on Arroyo.
Arroyo, 39 in February, is now 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. For his part, Arroyo tells Stark that he is “perfectly fine.” It’s been a while since Arroyo took the hill, as he missed about half of 2014 and all of 2015 after going under the knife. He bounced between organizations as part of the salary-swapping elements of a pair of trades, but he has said in the past that he expects to be ready to go in the spring.
The Reds’ interest in Arroyo was reported back in November, but GM Dick Williams indicated that they would only have interest if if he can first demonstrate that he’s healthy. Arroyo enjoyed a solid eight-year run with the Reds before departing for the D’Backs via free agency after the 2013 campaign. He contributed nearly 1700 innings in that stretch, carrying a 4.05 ERA with 5.9 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9.
Considering all he’s been through in the last year-and-a-half and the money he’s earned over his career, no one would fault Arroyo for considering retirement. However, now that he’s apparently healthy and has interest from at least seven teams, it sounds like the right-hander has no intentions of hanging up his spikes. For his career, Arroyo has pitched to a 4.19 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 across 15 big league seasons. He’s not hurting for cash either, as he has raked in more than $90MM in the sport.
Indians To Sign Mike Napoli
SATURDAY, 6:17pm: Napoli has passed his physical, according to Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer. His deal should be officially announced sometime this week.
WEDNESDAY, 12:35pm: The Indians and first baseman Mike Napoli are in agreement on a one-year contract, pending a physical, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that Napoli will earn $7MM in 2016 and has an additional $3MM worth of incentives built into his contract.
The 34-year-old Napoli will serve as Cleveland’s everyday first baseman in 2016, tweets Rosenthal, indicating that Carlos Santana will shift to the DH slot (though I’d imagine Santana will still see some action at first). That should provide the Indians with a defensive upgrade at first base, though it remains to be seen if Napoli can remain productive in an everyday role having developed such a notable platoon split late in his career.
Napoli batted .224/.324/.410 overall between the Red Sox and Rangers last season, improving greatly upon being traded to Texas (where he was deployed primarily against lefties). Napoli’s 12 percent walk rate and .187 isolated power mark made him a decent overall offensive contributor, but he batted just .191/.283/.320 in 290 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. That’s a stark contrast to his brilliant .278/.391/.563 line against lefties, and the Indians will likely be hoping for more balance in 2016 if he’s to remain in an everyday role. Napoli did show good patience against righties (10.3 percent walk rate) and actually struck out less often versus them than he did versus lefties. A .239 BABIP when facing same-handed pitching dragged down his overall production, so the Indians will hope for a correction in that regard and better overall output from the still-powerful Napoli.
AL West Notes: Mariners, Rangers, Angels
After re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma, GM Jerry Dipoto is satisfied with the Mariners‘ rotation, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. The Mariners had already added Wade Miley and Nate Karns in trades this offseason. “Now if you line up a rotation with Felix (Hernandez) and Wade Miley and James Paxton and Taijuan Walker and Nathan Karns and add Hisashi Iwakuma, that gives us the kind of depth and innings we want to get out of our starting rotation,” says Dipoto. “We’re very happy with that group.” Dipoto notes it’s crucial to have more than five pitchers capable of making solid starts. He adds that, even though it had looked like the Mariners were already at their budget limit prior to the Iwakuma signing, it took “less than five minutes” to get the Mariners’ ownership to approve spending once Iwakuma’s deal with the Dodgers fell apart and it became clear he was available. Here’s more from the AL West.
- In an offseason in which salaries for setup men have skyrocketed, the Rangers‘ bullpen is talented and cheap, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. That means they could potentially use a reliever to upgrade elsewhere, or they could keep all their current talent to provide the team with a variety of strong relief options. Wilson notes that GM Jon Daniels said at the Winter Meetings that other teams asked him about ten different relievers. And even beyond closer Shawn Tolleson, the Rangers have plenty of other bullpen options with at least some closing experience, including newcomer Tony Barnette, who registered 41 saves for Yakult in Japan last season.
- It might be in the Angels‘ interest not to exceed the $189MM luxury tax threshold for next season, if only because of the headache it could cause this time next year, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. Fans might argue that if the Angels exceeded that threshold for 2016, they could get back under it when Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson‘s contracts expire after the season, meaning that they would avoid the escalating penalties for repeat luxury tax offenders. The problem is that they’re already committed to spend a significant amount in 2017 (and will have non-mandatory, but necessary, expenditures for arbitration-eligible players like Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago and Kole Calhoun). They’ll also likely have to spend to bolster their rotation, infield and bullpen.
NL West Notes: Rockies, Cueto, Dodgers
The Rockies have made a few small moves this offseason, but they haven’t yet addressed their rotation, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. It’s unclear where the Rockies will go from here, Saunders writes — a deal with the Indians might have made at least a bit of sense, although, via ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider-only), the Indians don’t appear to see any urgent need to deal Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar. A trade with the Rays might be a possibility, but the Rays have already been connected to a number of other teams (including, today, the Cardinals). And as was reported yesterday, the Rockies weren’t able to get Kevin Gausman from the Orioles in return for Carlos Gonzalez. Here’s more from the NL West.
- Giants GM Bobby Evans says his team’s MRI of Johnny Cueto‘s elbow “looked great,” Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. Cueto had a flexor strain last season, but it appears to be healed. It sounds, then, like the Cueto’s physical exam reassured the Giants that their $130MM commitment to him was the right move.
- The Dodgers‘ end of the three-way Todd Frazier trade (in which they received youngsters Frankie Montas, Micah Johnson and Trayce Thompson) added talent to the organization, but their return also initially appeared a bit puzzling given that they presumably plan to compete in 2016. The deal might, however, be part of a broader plan to add talent that they can use to acquire veterans, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. That could mean they trade for a young starter like Jose Fernandez or Sonny Gray. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times recently tweeted, top Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman answered affirmatively when asked if the Frazier deal made him feel better about dealing prospects. “Obviously, we’re having a lot of conversations that involve us potentially trading some prospects in different-type scenarios,” says Friedman. “This wasn’t necessarily directed at that, but it’s connected in the same way every move we make has some connection. Expanding our talent base is helpful on multiple fronts.”
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs , meanwhile, suggests a package that the Dodgers could use to land Chris Archer of the Rays. Such a deal could conceivably be based around young Dodgers infielder Corey Seager, with the deal also potentially including someone like Rays reliever Jake McGee. Cameron notes that the Dodgers would be reluctant to part with Seager, but, of course, the Rays would be reluctant to part with Archer as well, and the two teams have plenty to offer one another.
Nationals “Moving On” From Brandon Phillips
DEC. 19, 2:31pm: Phillips wanted an extension as a condition of his approval of the trade, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets. As Heyman notes, it’s not surprising the Nationals balked — Phillips is already owed $27MM over the next two seasons, already a significant amount given his age and his somewhat uneven recent offensive performances. Phillips is arguably close to being worth the money he’s due, but asking to be extended even further than his age-35 season was asking a lot.
12:35pm: The Nationals are “moving on” from Phillips and will pursue other options, perhaps Howie Kendrick or a trade, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links). Daniel Murphy is perhaps another possibility, although a lower-priority one. In any case, while Rosenthal notes the possibility that talks between the Nationals and Reds could resurface at some point, a trade between the two clubs does not seem likely right now.
DEC. 18, 4:11pm: The Reds are expected to give Phillips some form of incentives to waive his no-trade rights, but there’s been no progress made on those talks to this point, according to James Wagner of the Washington Post (links to Twitter).
1:43pm: Sources tell MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that it’s very likely at this point that Phillips will waive his no-trade protection and allow a deal to be finalized.
9:59am: The Nationals are waiting to hear whether the Reds will be able to work out an arrangement with Phillips to get him to waive his no-trade clause, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. There are still “lots of hurdles” remaining, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets.
DEC. 17: The Nationals and Reds “apparently” have an agreement on a trade that would send second baseman Brandon Phillips from Cincinnati to D.C., according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). However, Phillips has yet to waive the full no-trade protection that comes with his 10-and-5 rights (that is, 10 years of Major League service, the past five of which have come with one team). Talks with Phillips himself are in progress, per Rosenthal, who notes that Phillips accepted deferrals in his contract with the Reds under the assumption that he would remain in Cincinnati for the duration of the deal. Some kind of financial compensation might be necessary in order to get Phillips to OK the deal, Rosenthal adds.
Phillips, 34, would give the Nationals the second base upgrade they’ve reportedly been seeking. His addition would allow the Nats to open the season with Danny Espinosa at shortstop, thereby giving top prospect Trea Turner some additional minor league development time. While acquiring Phillips wouldn’t add the balance Washington has been pursuing — he’d be yet another right-handed mix added to a group that includes Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael A. Taylor — he would provide a steady defensive presence that enjoyed an offensive rebound in many ways in 2015.
The 2014 season was perhaps Phillips’ worst since establishing himself as a regular in the Major Leagues, as he batted just .266/.306/.372. His eight homers that season were the fewest he’d ever posted in a full big league campaign. The 2015 season looked more like the Phillips to which we’ve become accustomed over the life of his Cincinnati tenure, however, as his bat bounced back with a .294/.328/.395 batting line, 12 homers and 23 steals — a significant improvement from the uncharacteristic two stolen bases he recorded in 2014. His 10.9 percent strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career. Perennially regarded as a strong defender — Phillips does have four Gold Glove Awards — he recorded positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating for the ninth consecutive season in 2015.
On the negative side of things, Phillips will turn 35 next June and has indeed seen those defensive ratings begin to deteriorate, to some extent. Never known as a patient hitter, Phillips’ 4.3 percent walk rate in 2015 was the worst of his career, and if his batting average dips back toward its career mark of .273 this season, Phillips could struggle to muster a .300 OBP. And, while his contract certainly isn’t outlandish — he’s owed a reasonable enough $13MM in 2016 and $14MM in 2017 — he also wouldn’t come cheaply to a Nationals club that has just under $100MM committed to 10 players for the 2016 season, plus a projected $31.2MM owed to another six.
That figure, of course, is before considering any type of financial compensation that may need to go his way. For example, the Nats agreed to exercise Jonathan Papelbon‘s club option three months in advance in order to get the closer to waive his own no-trade rights. While Phillips doesn’t have an option in his contract that can be exercised in similar fashion, the Nats could restructure his contract in some fashion in order to more amply compensate him over the two seasons he’d spend with the team in the event of a trade.
Jarrod Parker, Athletics Avoid Arbitration
Jarrod Parker has avoided arbitration with the Athletics, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. Parker will receive $850K for 2016, of which $425K is guaranteed. Parker is a client of Reynolds Sports Management.
MLBTR projected Parker would receive precisely $850K, which is also the same amount he made last season after his first trip through the arbitration process. Parker appeared to be one of the game’s better young starting pitchers after posting a 3.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 384 big-league innings through 2013. But he has not appeared in the big leagues in the past two years, as he had the second Tommy John surgery of his career early in 2014 and then fractured the elbow and had yet another operation (although, perhaps mercifully, not another of the Tommy John variety) last season. Now 27, he will attempt to get his career back on track in 2016.
International Signings/Moves: Kuroda, Pino, Davies, Cardinals, Stults
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times passes on a Sponichi report (Twitter link) noting that former Dodgers/Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda will earn $4.9MM in 2016 on his latest one-year deal with the Hiroshima Carp. That, as Hernandez notes, makes Kuroda the highest-paid player in Japan. Kuroda, who will turn 41 in February, returned to Japan last year for what many believed would be his final season. However, the veteran showed no signs of his age, reeling off a 2.55 ERA in 169 2/3 innings across 26 starts and averaging 5.6 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. The strong campaign marked another impressive chapter in Kuroda’s exceptional career, which now spans 19 seasons between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball. The upcoming season will be his 20th as a professional, and to this point, he has a lifetime 193-176 record, a 3.53 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 1.22 WHIP in 3202 2/3 innings.
Here are a few signings/moves pertaining to Japan and Korea…
- Right-hander Yohan Pino has signed a one-year deal with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization, the club announced (hat tip: Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). The soon-to-be 32-year-old Pino, a client of agent Steve Comte, logged 79 2/3 innings over the past two Major League seasons between the Twins and the Royals (spending more time on the mound with the former but enjoying better results with the latter). He owns a 4.63 ERA with averages of 7.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 as a big leaguer, and he’s also compiled a 4.38 ERA in 494 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level in his career. This will be his first stint with an Asian team.
- Via NPB Tracker’s Patrick Newman (Twitter link), the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball have considered signing right-handers Kyle Davies and Josh Lueke as well as lefty Luis Perez. Newman initially cited a Japanese-language report indicating Yakult had signed the trio, but now indicates that report was incorrect. Davies has the most Major League experience of the bunch, having totaled 768 innings with the Royals and Braves from 2005-11. Davis returned to the Majors this past season, tossing 2 1/3 innings for the Yankees. Though he’s been around for quite some time, Davies will pitch nearly all of next season at age 32, so he could potentially have several relatively lucrative years ahead of him if he thrives in NPB.
- The Cardinals announced that they have sold the rights to right-hander Zach Petrick to NPB’s DeNA Yokohama Bay Stars (Twitter link). St. Louis will receive cash considerations (the exact amount has yet to be reported) for surrendering the 26-year-old Petrick, who will be better-compensated pitching in Japan’s top league than he would have been in the minor leagues here. Petrick breezed through the minor leagues and posted strong ERA marks until reaching Triple-A, where he’s struggled a bit over the past two seasons, registering a 4.56 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 272 1/3 innings. Originally signed as an undrafted free agent, Petrick rose to No. 15 on Baseball America’s list of Top 30 prospects following the 2013 season, with BA praising his sinking fastball, above-average changeup and repeatable mechanics, which led to strong command.
- Left-hander Eric Stults will either pitch in Japan this season or retire, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (on Twitter). It’s not clear exactly whether Stults has a concrete offer from a Japanese club, although that does seem to be the implication. Stults made eight starts for the Braves in 2015 and has recorded 683 1/3 innings at the Major League level, working to a 4.24 ERA. His best years came with the 2013-14 Padres, when he was a staple in the team’s rotation and delivered 379 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Todd Frazier Trade
It’s been a busy week at MLBTR, and we’re just now catching up on some reactions to one of the week’s major moves: the three-team deal in which the White Sox received star third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds. The Reds, of course, got infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, while the Dodgers received righty Frankie Montas, infielder Micah Johnson and outfielder Trayce Thompson from Chicago.
- The Reds got surprisingly little in return for Frazier, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Peraza, the key to the Reds’ end of the trade, is a potentially terrific defender at second base and a very fast baserunner, but he’s coming off an underwhelming season and doesn’t have much in the way of power or patience. Schebler, meanwhile, merely looks like a potential fourth outfielder, and Dixon might not even be a significant prospect. The White Sox did very well in the deal, Law writes, and the Dodgers got good value, although it’s unclear why they didn’t just acquire Frazier themselves, since they had what the Reds evidently wanted.
- MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, meanwhile, wonders why the Reds didn’t just cut the three-team deal off at the pass and trade directly with the White Sox, who gave up three young players who appear to be better than the ones the Reds ultimately got.
- After adding Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox could continue to make moves, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. They could deal outfielder Avisail Garcia or first baseman Adam LaRoche if they can find a trade partner, and dealing one of those two players could conceivably allow them to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. (I’d counter that Garcia, who projects to make just $2.3MM next season, shouldn’t be a significant obstacle to signing Cespedes or Upton if that’s really what the White Sox want to do, and that it should be difficult for the team to clear much of LaRoche’s salary in a trade.) The Dodgers, meanwhile, could now use their collection of prospects to trade for Jose Fernandez, or failing that, someone like Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray or Tyson Ross.
- The White Sox expressed interest in Frazier at the beginning of the offseason, Reds GM Dick Williams tells MLB Network Radio (link to audio). The Reds and White Sox did have discussions about a two-team trade, but the Reds preferred the package of players the Dodgers brought to the table. Williams adds that one factor in the deal was the strength of their competition in the NL Central, which meant that their best chance of success was to gather prospects and build a team that could be successful “a couple of years” from now. Williams also notably says that teams have continued to discuss with him the possibility of trading for Aroldis Chapman despite the domestic violence accusations against Chapman.