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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.
Stephen asks:
Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?
This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October. So let's try to put a number on Naylor.
Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well. He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.
Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed. As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation. Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman. Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR. He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans. The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.
If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle. Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome." In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade. So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.
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