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Twins Outright Randy Dobnak

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Twins right-hander Randy Dobnak passed through waivers unclaimed and has been assigned outright to Triple-A St. Paul, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment earlier this week when Minnesota claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles.

Dobnak has been outrighted in the past and thus has the right to reject the assignment, but he’s a lock to accept. Because he has fewer than five years of service time, he’d need to forfeit the remainder of this season’s $2.25MM salary and the $4MM he’s still owed beyond the current campaign ($3MM salary in ’25, $1MM buyout on a ’26 option) in order to elect free agency. There’s obviously no chance he’d do so, meaning he’ll head back to the Saints and remain with the Twins organization as a depth arm both for the remainder of this season and at least the 2025 season as well.

The 29-year-old Dobnak was a remarkable story back in 2019, when in just over a year’s time he rose from indie-ball pitcher and Uber driver to the Twins’ big league roster, even pitching in the playoffs that season. From 2019-20, Dobnak logged 75 innings of 3.12 ERA ball with a 15.7% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and massive 58.8% ground-ball rate. On the back of that performance, Minnesota inked him a five-year, $9.25MM contract extension that contained a trio of club options. It was a low-cost move that provided the Twins ample contractual upside if Dobnak proved capable of sustaining anything close to that pace, but injuries and a decline in his performance have rendered the deal underwater.

Dobnak was clobbered for a 7.64 ERA in 2021 after signing that deal. He hit the 60-day injured list late that season with a strained pulley tendon in his right middle finger and missed much of the 2022 campaign with a similar issue. He pitched just 25 minor league innings that year and none in the majors. The Twins removed him from the 40-man roster and passed him through waivers that September. Dobnak was healthy again in 2023 but struggled to a 5.13 ERA in 126 1/3 Triple-A frames.

The 2024 season has been something of a rebound campaign, at least in the Triple-A ranks. Dobnak has made 23 starts and four relief appearances for the Saints, working to a 3.90 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 57.4% grounder rate in 129 1/3 innings. That performance earned him another look in the big leagues, but he was tagged for five runs nine hits and five walks in 7 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment once again.

Chris Martin Expects 2025 To Be His Final Season

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Veteran reliever Chris Martin turned 38 in June and is a free agent at season’s end, but the Red Sox righty tells MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he still intends to play in 2025. Next year, however, will “95%” be his final season, per Martin himself. The towering 6’8″ righty discusses the decision at length in an interview with Smith that fans will want to read in full for a wide slate of candid quotes. Broadly, Martin cites a growing family — his wife is pregnant with their fourth child — and the increasing toll the game can take on one’s physical and mental health in the latter stages of a career for his plan to wrap things up after the ’25 campaign.

Martin has had separate IL stints in 2024 for a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury, right elbow inflammation and anxiety. He’s been effective when on the mound, posting a 3.35 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. As is typical for the big righty, he’s missed bats at an above-average level and shown off perhaps the best command in all of Major League Baseball. Martin has punched out 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a microscopic 1.2% clip. That’s a sensational mark even by his own lofty standards, but Martin’s career 3.2% walk rate (and 2.7% mark since 2021) has long illustrated his elite ability to locate the ball.

While Martin has lost a mile per hour off his four-seamer this season amid those injuries, he’s still checking it an average of 94.7 mph with the pitch. The slightly reduced fastball hasn’t adversely impacted him all that much; his 11% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last season’s mark, and his opponents’ 79.7% contact rate is down ever so slightly from last year’s 80% mark. If anything, his four-seamer has been more effective this year. Opponents hit .313 off the pitch and slugged .521 against it last year. Those marks are down to .241 and .389 in 2024. Martin’s sinker has been hammered by opponents this season, and he’s begun to throw it less frequently as a result (8.7% in ’24 compared to 15% in ’23). That’s contributed to a dip in ground-ball rate (51% last year, 44% this year), but the overall blend of whiffs, command and grounders remains an effective package for the nine-year big league veteran.

Notably, Martin didn’t address whether that final season would come with the Red Sox or with another club. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t want him back, given how well he’s pitched under his current two-year, $17.5MM deal. He’s delivered 91 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates — all while piling up 37 holds and five saves along the way.

There will, of course, be widespread interest in Martin — as one would expect based on his overall track record. He’s rattled off six straight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA and twice posted sub-2.00 marks in that stretch. Overall, Martin has a 2.79 earned run average, 83 holds and 13 saves dating back to 2019. Given his age and current plans to call it a career after the 2025 season, one would imagine he’ll prioritize signing with a contender in hopes of adding a second World Series ring to match the one he earned with the 2021 Braves.

[Related: 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List]

Martin will have plenty of competition on the relief market, but the fact that he’ll presumably limit himself to one-year offers should create a wide array of suitors. He’ll be one of the top leverage relievers on the market. Names like David Robertson, A.J. Minter, Yimi Garcia, Andrew Kittredge and Tommy Kahnle (to name a few) have had nice seasons working primarily in a setup capacity. Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Aroldis Chapman and teammate Kenley Jansen are among the impending free agents who’ve spent a notable portion of the 2024 season working as a closer.

The Opener: Ohtani, NL Wild Card, Twins

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After the Yankees and Brewers punched their tickets to the postseason yesterday, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Ohtani approaches 50-50:

$700MM man and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani entered the 2024 season unable to pitch after undergoing elbow surgery last September, leaving him to act as a pure DH this season (for now, at least). That reality seemingly suggested that the rest of the National League would be able to avoid being overshadowed by the Dodgers’ new star in the first year of his contract, but Ohtani appears poised to make history in a new way: by becoming the first MLB player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season.

It’s a feat that could propel Ohtani to another kind of history—the first MVP award win for a full-time DH—and with ten games to go in the regular season Ohtani is tantalizingly close to the milestone with 48 home runs and 49 steals. He’ll look to take another step toward history this afternoon in Miami, with first pitch scheduled for 4:40pm local time.

2. Key matchups for NL Wild Card contenders:

The NL Wild Card race has tightened up, with the Mets (84-68) and Diamondbacks (84-68) now tied in the standings while occupying the second and third spots. The Braves (82-70) are also still in the thick of the race, currently sitting two games behind Arizona and New York. Today could provide Atlanta the opportunity to make up ground in the race, as both the Mets and Diamondbacks are scheduled to begin series against tough opponents.

The Snakes are headed to Milwaukee for a set against a Brewers club that just clinched the NL Central, while a Phillies club that hopes to punch its own ticket to the postseason is headed for an evening game in Queens. Meanwhile, the Braves will have ace Chris Sale on the mound for a game against the Reds and rookie Julian Aguiar (4.88 ERA in six starts). The 35-year-old Sale will be looking to put the finishing touches on his resume for the NL Cy Young Award and inch closer to a possible pitching triple crown: Sale leads the majors with a 2.35 ERA and is tied for the major league lead with 17 wins this year. He’s just two strikeouts short of the MLB lead with 219 to Tarik Skubal’s 221, and just one behind Dylan Cease’s 220 strikeouts for the National League lead.

3. Twins barely holding on:

The Twins (80-72) have struggled badly down the stretch this year with a 5-10 record in their last 15 games. Those struggles have opened the door for a surging Tigers club (80-73) to force its way into contention for the AL Wild Card spot with an exactly inverted 10-5 record in their own last 15 games. With Detroit off today, the Twins will either either extend their lead to a full game or fall into a tie. Although Minnesota does hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs, the Twins surely don’t want the race getting any tighter.

To prevent that, they’ll have to best an 88-65 Guardians team that has started to run away with the AL Central and appears likely to enter the postseason with a bye through the Wild Card round. Cleveland won yesterday’s game between the two clubs in a one-run heartbreaker that extended to extra innings. The Twins will send rookie Simeon Woods Richardson (4.08 ERA in 26 starts) to the mound against struggling Guardians rookie Joey Cantillo (4.99 ERA in six starts). The game is scheduled for 1:10pm local time.

Orioles Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Craig Kimbrel for assignment. Baltimore has recalled righty Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk in his place.

Kimbrel, 36, was signed to a one-year, $13MM deal over the winter after All-Star closer Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery last October. The club banked on Kimbrel’s track record and excellent strikeout rate helping to solidify the ninth inning, even after Kimbrel had a shaky finish to his 2023 stint with the Phillies — including three innings of NLCS work wherein he yielded four runs.

At least early in the year, Kimbrel was generally effective, even while walking a highwire. His walk rate was up, but so was his strikeout rate, and in spite of four blown saves in the season’s first half he pitched to a pristine 2.10 earned run average. As things have gone off the rails since the All-Star break, he’s ceded the ninth inning to deadline pickup and former Phillies teammate Seranthony Dominguez.

Dating back to July 14, Kimbrel has been decimated for 25 runs (23 of them earned) in 18 innings of work. He’s yielded 23 hits (five of them homers), walked 17 batters and plunked a hitter during that disastrous run. The tipping point was a six-run meltdown in last night’s loss to the Giants. Kimbrel faced eight batters, allowed three hits (two singles and a double), walked two hitters and allowed a runner to advance on a wild pitch in what was his worst and likely last outing of the 2024 season.

Kimbrel will be placed on waivers, and he’ll surely clear. He’d be ineligible for the postseason roster with another club, and a claiming team would be on the hook for the prorated remainder of this year’s $12MM salary and the $1MM buyout on next year’s club option. No team is going to make that move. He’ll clear waivers and be released, at which point the club option will be moot (though the O’s will still owe him that $1MM buyout). He could sign with any other club for the final few days of the season, but it’s possible he’ll simply wait until the offseason to seek out his next opportunity.

Kimbrel’s second half has been so gruesome that it’s overshadowed his excellent first half, but a run of two bad months shouldn’t torch any and all interest in him over the winter. He’s not the dominant high-leverage force he once was, but he still fanned 31.5% of his opponents this season and turned in a strong 11.8% swinging-strike rate. His fastball is down from an average of 95.8 mph in 2023 to 93.9 mph in 2024, per Statcast. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be handed a closing job this offseason, but assuming he wants to continue pitching, Kimbrel should find interest on lower-priced big league deals — perhaps with incentives based on games finished in the event that he ascends back to the closer’s role in his next destination.

Kimbrel currently ranks fifth all-time with 440 saves and is only six behind another still-active closer, Kenley Jansen, for the fourth spot on that list. Either pitcher could still catch Lee Smith for No. 3 all-time (478), but climbing north of 600 alongside Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman isn’t going to happen. In 809 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel has a 2.59 ERA, 56 wins, 26 holds and 1265 strikeouts (38.8%) to go along with those 440 saves.

Gavin Stone “Very Unlikely” To Return This Year

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced to reporters that right-hander Gavin Stone is still experiencing shoulder soreness and is “very unlikely” to return this year. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the news on X.

Stone landed on the IL September 6 due to right shoulder inflammation. The plan was for him to be shut down for about ten days, at which point the club would decide on a path forward based on how he felt. It seems that not much progress has been made and so the path back to the club has narrowed.

Prior to this injury, Stone was the most reliable member of a rotation that had suffered a great number of injuries. He tossed 140 1/3 innings over 25 starts, with both of those figures still leading the team. The only player close to him in those categories is Tyler Glasnow, who is also unlikely to come back this year, so Stone will finish 2024 as the team leader in those two categories. He had a 3.53 earned run average in that time as well as a 20% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate.

The health of the Dodger rotation, or lack thereof, has been an ongoing story throughout the year. Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan each required season-ending surgeries earlier in the campaign. As mentioned, Stone and Glasnow are both on the IL and unlikely to be healthy before the season’s done. Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw are also on the IL but still could contribute in the coming weeks. More on them below.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto also missed about three months due to a rotator cuff strain, though he is now back on the active roster. That’s a bit of positive news amid all the negative stuff, though there are questions there as well. Yamamoto returned before being fully stretched out and has only thrown four innings in each of his two outings since coming back. The kid gloves are apparently going to stay on, as Roberts said the club will continue to give him more than four days of rest between starts for the rest of the season and maybe into the playoffs as well, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times on X.

Around Yamamoto, the rest of the rotation has recently consisted of Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Miller has an 8.52 ERA on the year and is being optioned today, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X, Miller’s second optional assignment of the year. Buehler has also struggled, with a 5.54 ERA on the year. Knack has a strong 3.70 ERA but in just 56 career innings at the major league level. Flaherty is having a great year but there are some health concerns with him as well, as he had back problems with the Tigers that reportedly scuttled a deal to the Yankees before the Dodgers acquired him instead.

Whether the Dodgers will replace Miller in the rotation or simply use bullpen games to finish the year remains to be seen. They are off on Monday, which could perhaps help them get by with just four starters, though Yamamoto’s restrictions complicate things. The club is a virtual lock for the postseason but the remaining games on the schedule are still meaningful. They are only 3.5 games up on the Padres in the West and only two games ahead of the Brewers for the second bye through the Wild Card round, with the Phillies currently holding the top spot.

Even if the Dodgers are able to cruise into a first-round bye, building a playoff rotation is going to be a concern. Perhaps Gonsolin or Kershaw could help out, depending on how things develop over the next few weeks. Kershaw has been on the IL since late May due to a bone spur in his left big toe. He threw an 84-pitch bullpen session today, per Gonzalez on X, which is perhaps a good sign that he could still be a factor soon but the next steps aren’t clear.

As for Gonsolin, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year and is currently on a rehab assignment. His first outing lasted two innings and the second went 2 2/3. Per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Roberts says Gonsolin will try to get through four innings in his next outing and then the club will talk about where to go from there. “It’s still a longer shot,” Robert said. “But I’m really impressed that Tony has taken this really seriously as a potential opportunity. He’s gonna take another one, and we’ll see from there.”

There are lots of moving parts and the club still has a chance to have a solid rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Flaherty with perhaps some combination of Knack, Buehler, Kershaw or Gonsolin in behind the front two. There even seems to be some non-zero chance that Shohei Ohtani takes a mound before the season is done, though that still seems like a real long shot.

The club and its fans know very well that a flimsy rotation can sink an otherwise strong season. Just last year, the Dodgers won 100 games but were quickly swept out of the playoffs by the Diamondbacks when injuries reduced their postseason rotation to Miller, Lance Lynn and an obviously-injured Kershaw. That will make their swirling rotation a key storyline in the coming weeks.

Blue Jays Notes: Wagner, Bichette

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The Blue Jays placed Will Wagner on the 60-day injured list yesterday, bringing his rookie season to an early close. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that the infielder will undergo a left knee scope tomorrow. It’s a minor arthroscopic procedure that is expected to prevent Wagner from participating in baseball activities for a month. He should have ample time to progress through most of the offseason and be ready for Spring Training.

Toronto acquired Wagner alongside Jake Bloss and Joey Loperfido in a strong trade package for rental starter Yusei Kikuchi. Wagner was in Triple-A with the Astros at the time of the trade. The Jays briefly sent him to their top affiliate before calling him up in mid-August. The lefty-hitting second baseman made a strong first impression, running a .305/.337/.451 slash with a pair of homers in 24 games.

Wagner had a very strong year in Triple-A to earn the MLB look. He combined for a .315/.432/.444 line through 355 minor league plate appearances. Wagner drew 59 walks while striking out just 37 times. Assuming the surgery rehab goes as planned, he could compete for the second base job in camp. Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Ernie Clement should split the remaining time there this season.

On the other side of the infield, the Jays scratched Bo Bichette minutes before Wednesday’s loss to the Rangers. The shortstop suffered a contusion on his right middle finger. Manager John Schneider said after the game that Bichette was injured while taking grounders in pregame warm-ups (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’ll go for x-rays tomorrow.

Bichette just returned from the injured list on Tuesday. A calf strain had sidelined him since the middle of July. That was the second calf-related IL stint of what has been an extremely frustrating season. If he did suffer any kind of finger fracture, the Jays would presumably shut him down for the year. Bichette has appeared in 81 games and owns a career-worst .225/.277/.322 batting line.

Diamondbacks Release Dylan Floro

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The Diamondbacks released reliever Dylan Floro after a weekend DFA, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Floro would almost certainly have declined a minor league assignment so a release was a formality once he was taken off the roster.

Arizona acquired Floro in one of the final moves of deadline day. The acquisition cost was modest, as they sent minor league signee Andrés Chaparro to the Nationals. (Chaparro has since made his MLB debut and is hitting .218/.273/.427 in 30 games.) Floro wasn’t the most exciting addition but he’d pitched quite well for Washington. He carried a 2.06 ERA in 52 1/3 innings for the Nats. That success was built on plus control and decent ground-ball rates rather than power, but the Snakes hoped he’d add veteran stability to the middle relief corps.

Things went downhill almost immediately. Floro worked scoreless appearances in three of his first four outings. The Phillies tagged him for three runs on August 11, the first of a handful of times that he was hit hard. Floro allowed multiple runs on three more occasions, including a five-run drubbing at the hands of the Brewers in his final appearance with Arizona on Saturday. He finished his Diamondback tenure with a 9.37 earned run average across 15 outings. His already modest 19.6% strikeout rate has nearly halved to 10.7% while the average velocity on his sinker has fallen to 88.4 MPH this month.

Floro is playing on a $2.25MM base salary. He’ll collect the remainder of that money. He also unlocked $1.25MM in bonuses based on appearances. He’d be ineligible for postseason play with another team, so he could sit out the final week and a half of this season. Floro would be a free agent in the offseason even if he caught on somewhere in the next couple days.

Entering his age-34 season, Floro might be limited to minor league offers. His overall 3.80 ERA in 68 2/3 innings is decent production for a middle reliever, but his market will surely be adversely impacted by the dismal finish. Washington signed him to a guaranteed deal coming off a lesser 4.76 ERA last winter, though his 2023 peripherals (23.4% strikeout rate, 54.4% grounder percentage) were better. Floro’s velocity is down more than two ticks relative to last season.

Mutual Interest Between Rockies, Jacob Stallings In Reunion

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The Rockies are carrying three catchers for September. Colorado promoted prospect Drew Romo in conjunction with last month’s release of Elias Díaz. He joins fellow rookie Hunter Goodman and veteran Jacob Stallings in Bud Black’s catching corps.

Colorado probably won’t want to commit fully to the unproven duo of Romo and Goodman next season. It seems the club will look to keep Stallings in the fold. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding suggested last week that Colorado could try to bring him back. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post wrote similarly in a reader mailbag this morning that there’s mutual interest.

Stallings signed a $2MM deal with the Rox last offseason. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and due at least a $500K buyout on a $2MM mutual option for next season. While the simplest course of action would be for both sides to exercise the option, that’s exceedingly rare. Stallings figures to decline his end even if he hopes to stay in Denver. There’s a $1.5MM difference between the option value and the buyout. The 34-year-old backstop (35 in December) has played well enough to pursue a larger sum.

In 77 games, Stallings is hitting .260/.353/.450. He’s not likely to replicate a .319 average on balls in play, but he has a personal-high nine homers in 267 plate appearances. Stallings has roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers to go with that slight uptick in power.

Any kind of offensive production from Stallings is a bonus. His primary value lies in his defensive acumen. Stallings won a Gold Glove with the Pirates in 2021. He has a strong game-calling reputation and seemingly works well as a mentor to the team’s younger catchers. Stallings has thrown out a solid 22.5% of baserunners and remains one of the sport’s most sure-handed defenders. He has only been charged with one passed ball this season and has committed all of four passed balls since the start of 2021. Stallings doesn’t grade well as a pitch framer, but he’s otherwise a solid option behind the plate.

Stallings will probably be limited to one year but should earn a raise. Colorado signed him coming off a rough two-year stretch in Miami, where he hit .210/.287/.290 with lesser defensive grades. This year’s production could push his salary closer to guarantees secured by Luke Maile ($3.5MM), Austin Hedges ($4MM) and Martín Maldonado ($4.25MM) last winter.

Goodman and Stallings have taken the majority of recent playing time. Romo, 23, has been pushed into a third catcher role after starting his MLB career with a .174/.208/.239 slash through 13 games. Saunders writes that the Rox could send Romo back to Triple-A to start next season and rely on a Stallings/Goodman tandem if they re-sign the veteran.

The Juan Soto Blockbuster Has Been Even Better Than Expected

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Last winter's Juan Soto trade was the biggest in a long while -- probably the most significant since the previous Soto deal. The Padres were slashing payroll and didn't want to accommodate a salary north of $30MM for his final year of arbitration. Extension talks never got off the ground. The Padres were about to lose four potential starting pitchers to free agency, leaving them with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and a bunch of questions.

San Diego determined to build their return for Soto around MLB-ready starting pitching. They'd not only shed payroll but directly address the biggest need on the roster. It's impossible to trade Juan Soto and not deal a huge hit to the lineup, but the Padres could mitigate some of that loss by bringing back rotation help. Even the San Diego front office probably didn't envision it turning around the staff to this extent.

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Astros Planning To Have Contract Talks With Alex Bregman

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Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is now just a few weeks away from becoming a free agent for the first time, but it seems there’s a chance he might not make it to the open market. General manager Dana Brown spoke with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked about the situation, indicating that they still hope to approach Bregman at some point in the near future.

“We were in Anaheim the other day and I ran into [agent Scott Boras] and we started talking a little bit,” Brown said. “And we both said, ‘Look, once we get towards the end of the season and things are over, we’ll definitely engage and talk about it.’ We had a small conversation about it. Right now, we’re not in any discussions about contract offers. We both agreed we will meet back up.”

Brown was hired as the GM in January of 2023 and, from the beginning, has been consistent in saying that the club planned to talk to Bregman and his reps about a new contract at some point. Bregman and the Astros agreed to a five-year, $100MM extension in 2019. When Brown was hired and began talking about the desire to get a new deal done, there were still two years left on that pact but it’s now almost complete.

Getting a deal done at this point will be challenging but not impossible. While public reputation suggests Boras clients don’t sign extensions, there are a few examples that contradict that narrative, with the most recent coming less than two weeks ago. Matt Chapman, another Boras client, agreed to a six-year, $151MM pact with the Giants to prevent him from triggering his opt-out and returning to free agency.

Bregman will have an argument to top the Chapman deal. The two players have provided similar value on the field in recent years, with Bregman generally hitting more but Chapman providing better defensive value. But Bregman is a year younger, which should give him the edge. Both players had arguably their best seasons in 2018 and 2019. They have each fallen off a bit since then but have still been solidly above average players.

Bregman was undoubtedly better at that 2018-19 apex. He hit .291/.409/.561 over those two seasons for a 162 wRC+, while Chapman was at .263/.348/.507 and a 132 wRC+. Chapman provided more with the glove but still came up short overall, producing 11.9 wins above replacement compared to Bregman’s 16.2, per FanGraphs.

Since then, it’s been almost a dead heat. From 2020 to the present, Bregman has hit .260/.350/.442 for a 124 wRC+ while Chapman has a .231/.321/.434 line and 112 wRC+. Chapman makes up some of the difference with better baserunning but mostly defense: 44 Defensive Runs Saved and 33 Outs Above Average for Chapman compared to 10 DRS and 13 OAA for Bregman. Overall, Bregman has a 17 fWAR tally in that time while Chapman is narrowly behind at 16.7.

Given that similar production, Bregman and Boras should be able to use Chapman’s deal as a floor, with Bregman’s younger age justification in asking for an even greater guarantee. That kind of contract would be pretty unprecedented for the Astros, who have generally shied away from mega deals, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. They did give Jose Altuve an extension of five years and $151MM back in 2018, the largest deal in franchise history, but that deal began with Altuve’s age-29 season.

They were also near the start of their competitive window and had lots of payroll space at the time, which is no longer the case. The Astros are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time this year. They went over the CBT line in 2020 but the tax was paused during the pandemic and they have stayed under since.

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s CBT number is at $254MM for the year, well beyond the $237MM base threshold. Cot’s lists their 2025 number at $151MM but that doesn’t appear to include Ryan Pressly’s $14MM option, which he vested last month and is guaranteed as long as he’s healthy at season’s end. Adding that gets us to $165MM, then arbitration raises for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker should add roughly $35MM or so, taking the number to about $200MM. Arb deals for guys like Bryan Abreu, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Mauricio Dubón and others will add to that total as well.

Re-signing Bregman seems to be a priority for the club but they will naturally have other offseason business to attend to. Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi are set to become free agents, putting two holes in a rotation that has already been heavily bit by the injury bug. Perhaps Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will be healthy and in the mix by next year, but adding to the starting group could be on the winter to-do list.

Addressing the pitching staff and adding a notable deal for Bregman would likely leave the club as a tax payor for a second straight year. Paying the tax in consecutive seasons comes with escalating penalties. A second-time payor sees its base tax rate go from 20% to 30%, with higher penalties for going beyond the additional tiers.

Whether the sides can get a deal done and keep Bregman in Houston remains to be seen. The club clearly wants it to happen based on how often Brown has talked about it, but it’s also never seemed like there’s been much momentum towards meaningful discussions. Even if Bregman eventually makes it to the open market, the Astros could re-sign him, but they would naturally have competition from the other clubs around the league. MLBTR ranked Bregman third on our most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, behind only Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic mentioned the Tigers as a speculative fit for Bregman this winter.

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