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Royals Interested In Marcus Stroman

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Marcus Stroman is among the many pitchers the Royals “appear to [have] on their radar,” the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link).  Rotation help is a stated goal of the Kansas City offseason, and the club has been linked to such other free agents as Seth Lugo, Lucas Giolito, and the now-signed Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde, as well as trade targets on teams like the Mariners and Marlins.

Stroman is another name that would pretty much instantly become the de facto ace of a largely unproven K.C. rotation.  Cole Ragans looked tremendous after being dealt to the Royals in the Aroldis Chapman trade, but Ragans has only 136 Major League innings on his resume.  The rest of the Royals’ homegrown young arms struggled across the board, as did veterans Jordan Lyles, Zack Greinke, and Brad Keller.  With the latter two now free agents, the 2024 rotation currently lines up as Ragans, Lyles, Brady Singer, and then question marks.

It wasn’t exactly a clean season for Stroman either last year, as injuries spoiled what was initially shaping up to be a very strong 2023 campaign.  Stroman had a 3.95 ERA over 136 2/3 innings, which broke down as a 2.96 ERA in 112 2/3 frames prior to the All-Star break, and then a 8.64 ERA over his final 24 innings of the season.  The right-hander missed about six weeks due to hip inflammation and then a cartilage fracture in his right ribcage, and thus the Cubs limited to Stroman to shortened starts and bullpen work after he returned from the injured list in September.

With injuries also hampering Stroman in 2022, some durability questions naturally have to be asked as the righty enters his age-33 season.  That said, Stroman chose to bet on himself by exercising the opt-out clause in his contract with the Cubs, leaving behind a $21MM salary for 2024 in search of a larger pact in the free agent market.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $44MM deal for Stroman, who ranked 18th on our top 50 free agents list.  This projection acts as reflects his recent injury history while still locking in some extra money and security.  Of course, only the market will determine how accurate this prediction was, and if Stroman’s price tag does approach a $22MM average annual value, it might put him out of Kansas City’s spending range.

GM J.J. Picollo recently said that the Royals have at least $30MM available on free agents this winter, as ownership is willing to allocate a bit more payroll than usual in order to address the club’s pitching needs and simply to help right the ship after a dreadful 106-loss season.  Stroman making over $20MM would alone eat up a good portion of that budget, but the fact that the Royals are even considering Stroman, Lugo, or even Gray indicates that Kansas City is prepared to make a relatively big splash for a larger upgrade.  Likewise, it should be noted that the Royals could also still look to obtain pitching help in trades, though giving up prospects would represent a different kind of cost than simply spending on a free agent.

Picollo made a point of noting how the Royals (and other rebuilding teams) need to work harder to convince veteran free agents to join a club that doesn’t look like a contender for 2024 or perhaps even in the near future.  That said, Stroman was willing to join the Cubs two years ago when Chicago was in the midst of a rebuild, so he could perhaps be amendable to joining the Royals if the price is right and if Stroman has confidence that the franchise is on the right track.  It also can’t be ruled out that Stroman might view K.C. as something of a stopover, whether via a trade at the deadline or perhaps another contractual opt-out clause.

NL West Notes: Lee, Padres, Soto, Giants, Rockies

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The Padres’ interest in Jung Hoo Lee is well known, though the large amount of interest in Lee’s services threatens to push him out of San Diego’s price range, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  MLBTR projected five years and $50MM for Lee in his first Major League contract as he made the jump from the KBO League, yet Lin hears that the the 25-year-old outfielder could land closer to $90MM, without counting the posting fee a team would additionally owe to the Kiwoom Heroes, Lee’s KBO League club.

Finances have been an big subplot of the Padres’ offseason, as the team’s debt-driven need to reduce payroll has already resulted in Juan Soto’s trade to the Yankees, as well as the seeming unlikelihood of a reunion with such high-profile free agents as Blake Snell, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo (and Nick Martinez has already signed with the Reds).  San Diego has roughly $155.7MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, yet with several roster holes to fill and a rough payroll limit of around $200MM, spending more than expected on Lee will make it more difficult for the Padres to properly address every need.  Lee’s agent Scott Boras isn’t in the habit of giving pseudo-hometown discounts, even if San Diego holds particular appeal to Lee since he is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim.

More from around the NL West…

  • Returning to the Soto trade talks, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said the Soto field was comprised of 10 teams with three finalists.  The San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea reports that the Giants were one of the initial 10, though they didn’t make the cut for two central reasons — the Padres preferred the Yankees’ pitching-heavy trade package, and the Padres weren’t keen on moving Soto to a division rival.  San Francisco does have a solid batch of young pitching depth of its own, and those arms have naturally drawn interest from other teams given the league-wide demand for pitching.  This would seemingly help the Giants’ chances of landing some high-end hitting talent, depending on how much of that depth San Francisco is willing to surrender.
  • The Rockies have often been accused of lagging behind other teams in the analytics department, though MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Colorado is preparing to open a performance lab at its Spring Training facilities.  This is the latest step for a research and development department that has 11 staffers and planning to add more, as most other clubs have considerably more employees in similar departments around the league.  “It’s kind of like college football used to be, where there was an arms race for facilities,” Rockies R&D director Brian Jones said.  “This is similar.  It’s an arms race for talented people — research and development, analysts, biomechanists — every kind of advantage.”

Blue Jays Made Competitive Offer To Shohei Ohtani

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Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Dodgers for a record-breaking ten-year, $700MM deal sent shockwaves around the sports world, though a particularly heavy dose of the impact settled in Toronto.  Blue Jays fans (and possibly the team itself ) spent much of Friday wondering if Ohtani had decided on the Jays as his next destination, and a pair of now-debunked media reports only added to the fever of speculation.

The full story of the Jays’ pursuit of the two-way star might not be known for some time, yet in pure financial terms, it seems as though the club at least came close to the final asking price.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith hears from a source that the Blue Jays’ offer to Ohtani was “right there,” so it doesn’t appear as though the Dodgers’ $700MM deal was too far removed from what the Jays (or potentially other suitors) put on the table.

Given how Ohtani’s contract is so far beyond the normal stratosphere for baseball contracts or sports contracts in general, it is fair to assume that teams’ approach also differed greatly from a normal free agent courtship.  This was already apparent with the immense level of secrecy requested by Ohtani and his agent Nez Balelo, as every detail (true or exaggerated) that leaked out about Ohtani’s intentions was heavily scrutinized.

As Nicholson-Smith notes, there have already been conspiracy theories launched that Balelo and CAA used the Jays’ interest as a smokescreen to get the Dodgers to up their offer at the last minute since Los Angeles was Ohtani’s preferred choice all along.  Or, perhaps the simplest answer is true — the Blue Jays did enough to make themselves a genuine consideration in the two-time AL MVP’s mind, regardless of where the Dodgers may or may not have ranked for Ohtani heading into the offseason.

Learning that the Jays got within the ballpark of signing Ohtani probably doesn’t ease much or any of the sting for Toronto fans.  The fact that the Blue Jays were willing to spend perhaps upwards of $650MM, $675MM, or whatever the final bid was also doesn’t necessarily mean that the team has that much to spend in general this offseason, considering the special nature of Ohtani’s on-field ability and starpower.

Still, the Jays haven’t been shy about spending over the last few seasons, and the team has also been linked to such major free agents as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, former Jay Matt Chapman, and a host of other players on the free agent and trade markets.  GM Ross Atkins has typically looked to at least check in on just about every notable free agent of the last few years, so this broad strategy could help the Blue Jays make a quick pivot as they explore their backup plans.

Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor

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Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor].  But…it never hurts to listen.”

The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production.  The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat.  Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power.  While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.

It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign.  Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA.  These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.

As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup.  However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play.  Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.  While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.

Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason.  Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal.  Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.

With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency.  Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.

Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two.  Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.

Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani.  Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season.  As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.

There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls.  However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention.  That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.

The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters.  The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.

Marlins Acquire Christian Bethancourt From Guardians

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The Marlins and Guardians have announced a trade that will send catcher Christian Bethancourt to Miami in exchange for cash considerations.  Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase was the first to report Bethancourt going to the Marlins, while the Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reported the cash return to Cleveland (both links to X).

The trade adds context to the Guardians’ $one-year, $4MM deal with Austin Hedges from earlier today.  The signing initially seemed curious given how Bethancourt and Bo Naylor were already lined up as Cleveland’s catching corps, but obviously the Guards were planning two moves at once in both signing Hedges and then flipping Bethancourt to the catcher-needy Marlins.

Bethancourt is a veteran of seven MLB seasons, though none in 2018-21 as he played in the minor leagues and spent a season playing in South Korea.  Returning to the big leagues with the A’s in 2022, Bethancourt was then dealt to Tampa Bay in July 2022, and the catcher ended up hitting .235/.257/.399 over 483 PA with the Rays over the last two seasons.  With his numbers falling off at the plate in 2023, the Rays outrighted Bethancourt off their 40-man roster at the start of November, and the Guardians claimed him off waivers two days later.

Almost at that exact same time, Peter Bendix was in final talks with the Marlins to leave the Rays’ GM job and become Miami’s new president of baseball operations.  As such, Bethancourt has become one of several ex-Tampa players that Bendix has already added to Miami’s roster during his brief time in charge of the front office.

While Bethancourt had exactly a league-average 100 wRC+ (from a .252/.283/.409 slash line and 11 homers in 333 PA) in 2022, it is safe to assume he probably won’t be viewed as a true starting catcher for the Marlins.  Bethancourt and Nick Fortes at least provide the Fish with a slight upgrade on paper from last year’s catching tandem of Fortes and the non-tendered Jacob Stallings, as Bethancourt’s strong throwing arm can pair with Fortes’ glove for a defense-first approach.  Bendix will probably keep an eye out for any more possible upgrades, as Fortes can still be optioned to the minors.

Bethancourt was projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration salary this winter, so the Rays’ outright essentially served as an early non-tender for the team.  This is Betancourt’s second of three arb-eligible years, so the Marlins have control on his services through the 2025 season.

Rays Reportedly Sign Edwin Uceta To Minor League Deal

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The Rays and right-hander Edwin Uceta have agreed to a minor league deal, per reporter Francys Romero. Romero adds that the deal includes an invite to Spring Training.

Uceta first signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic back in 2016, and after climbing the organizational ladder eventually made his big league debut in 2021. Across 20 1/3 innings of work, Uceta struck out an impressive 27.2% of batters faced but struggled with his control, walking 13%. Those control issues combined with an unusually low 48.5% strand rate left Uceta with a 6.64 ERA despite a decent 4.40 FIP. That led the Dodgers to designate Uceta for assignment the following offseason, at which point he was picked up by the Diamondbacks.

Uceta’s time in Arizona was largely more of the same. While he got is control issues somewhat under control and saw his walk rate drop to 9.6%, Uceta struck out just 17.8% of batters faced during his 17 innings in the desert, pitching to a 5.82 ERA and 4.52 FIP while posting a similarly low 52.1% strand rate. The Diamondbacks eventually designated him for assignment themselves in early 2023 to make room for Evan Longoria on the 40-man roster. That set Uceta off on an organizational carousel. Throughout 2023, the right-hander was claimed by the Tigers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs before finally passing through outright waivers successfully in August.

Among those four organizations, he only appeared with the Mets in the major leagues, striking out three while walking two and hitting a batter across three scoreless innings. Most recently, Uceta has impressed across six starts in the Dominican Winter League, pitching to a 2.55 ERA across 24 2/3 innings of work. Looking ahead to the 2024 campaign, Uceta will join an organization known for its pitching development successes. With Tampa Bay, Uceta figures to get the chance to pitch his way into a big league bullpen role and establish himself as a major league regular for the first time in his career. Meanwhile, the Rays have the opportunity to work with a player on the periphery of the big leagues who comes with five years of team control, though he figures to be out of options entering the 2024 season, meaning he’ll need to stick on the club’s active roster if added.

Guardians To Sign Austin Hedges

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The Guardians and catcher Austin Hedges are reportedly in agreement on a contract worth $4MM, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. As noted by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the pact is a one-year deal.

A second-round pick by the Padres in the 2011 draft, Hedges made his MLB debut with San Diego back in 2015. After spending the first two seasons of his big league career in a reserve role, Hedges as the Padres’ primary catcher from 2017 to 2019, slashing just .208/.265/.380 but earning excellent marks for his defense behind the plate. Hedges started the shortened 2020 campaign in San Diego but was shipped to Cleveland in a nine-player deal that brought Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Hedges made just six appearances throughout the remainder of the season following the trade, but became the regular catcher in Cleveland during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. It was more of the same for Hedges during his time in Cleveland, as he batted a paltry .168/.228/.274 while posting elite defensive numbers.

In his first trip to the open market last season, Hedges landed with the Pirates on a one-year, $5MM deal before being dealt to the Rangers at the Trade Deadline, with whom he won the World Series as part of a catching corps that also featured Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver. The 30-year-old’s characteristic mix of anemic offense and strong defense continued last season. In 212 trips to the plate, Hedges posted a career-worst slash line of .184/.234/.327. While that 27 wRC+ is a whopping 73% worse than league average, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric put him in the 99th percentile among all MLB players last season. Hedges ranked in the 98th percentile with +13 framing runs while also posting a 90th percentile +8 blocks above average.

Those defensive chops earned him another shot in Cleveland, where the Guardians surely hope he can act as a mentor to young catcher Bo Naylor behind the plate. Naylor impressed in 67 games last season with a slash line of .237/.337/.470 (124 wRC+), but his defensive metrics left something to be desired as he was only slightly better than league average in terms of framing and below average in terms of blocking and controlling the running game. Hedges should be able to guide Naylor in each of those areas while also helping him stay rested throughout the season. His strong defense and game-calling ability should also be an asset for the Guardians’ many young pitchers, including Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams.

Yankees To Acquire Two 40-Man Roster Players From Dodgers

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The Yankees are poised to acquire two players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster in exchange for a prospect not on the 40-man, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The names of the players in the deal are not yet known. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms Rosenthal’s report while adding that the deal, which is pending a medical review, would send one “end of roster” pitcher to the Yankees alongside a prospect on the 40-man roster. The deal would clear 40-man roster spots for LA’s reported deals with right-hander Joe Kelly and superstar Shohei Ohtani.

While it’s unclear which players are changing hands in the deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the sides would get together on such a trade. After all, the Dodgers’ 40-man roster is currently full, meaning they already needed to clear space on the 40-man to formally add Kelly and Ohtani. On the other hand, the Yankees just cleared two spots from their own 40-man roster in a seven-player trade with the Padres that brought back star slugger Juan Soto. While the additions of both Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham take up 40-man roster spots, that’s more than made up for by the departures of right-handers Jhony Brito, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka. A deal between the sides allows the Dodgers to recoup some value for players they likely would have had to part with anyway, while the Yankees figure to take advantage of LA’s roster crunch to begin rebuilding its pitching depth in the aftermath of the Soto deal.

Latest On Luxury Tax Implications Of Shohei Ohtani’s Contract

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Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani rocked the baseball world yesterday by agreeing to a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. That record-setting contract, taken at face value, would have unparalleled impact on the club’s payroll as calculated for luxury tax purposes. If Ohtani’s contract indeed counted as a $70MM hit to the club’s tax payroll, it would single-handedly push the Dodgers across the first level of the luxury tax even as the club sat at just $174MM in payroll for tax purposes prior to the deal with Ohtani. While the big market Dodgers have never shied away from the tax in the past, paying into the tax during each of the past three seasons, the Ohtani deal would all but guarantee they would continue to do so for the next decade, leaving them vulnerable to escalating penalties.

As reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN, however, the reported deferrals in Ohtani’s deal could lessen the tax burden on LA considerably. Passan notes that Major League Baseball applies a discount to deferrals in luxury tax calculations to determine the present-day value of contracts. Given the fact that “most of” Ohtani’s contract is expected to be deferred, Passan suggests that Ohtani’s deal, for luxury tax purposes, is expected to settle in the range of $40MM to $50MM when all is said and done. While those numbers aren’t final and won’t figure to become exact until the contract is properly finalized and announced, that range substantially alters the impact Ohtani will have on LA’s luxury tax bill over his decade-long tenure with the club.

After all, if Ohtani’s luxury tax hit for the 2024 season were to shrink from the $70MM his on-paper AAV would suggest to a figure in the range of $45MM, that would put the club’s luxury tax payroll at roughly $219MM using the numbers supplied by RosterResource. For a Dodgers club that saw its luxury tax payroll land at $267MM last year after peaking at a whopping $293MM in 2022 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), that would leave the Dodgers with the ability to add upwards of $50MM before even matching their 2023 payroll for luxury tax purposes, and just under $75MM in room before their hit their all-time high.

That’s great news for Dodgers fans, as the club has plenty of work to do in improving its roster even after adding a once-in-a-lifetime talent like Ohtani. Their new DH should complement Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman well at the top of the lineup, but offense was never the primary concern of the Dodgers this winter. The club’s pitching staff was essentially middle-of-the-pack in 2023, with a 4.06 ERA that ranked 13th in the majors and a 4.23 FIP that ranked 15th. Looking ahead to 2024, the club’s only locked in starting pitcher is sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller. While he figures to be joined in the rotation by a veteran presence in the form Walker Buehler, Buehler hasn’t pitched in the majors since early 2022 due to the second Tommy John surgery of his career, casting doubt on his ability to be the durable, front-of-the-rotation arm that the Dodgers need.

While the Dodgers have been connected to plenty of top arms on the trade market this offseason such as Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes, Ohtani’s relatively reasonable luxury tax hit should allow the club to be more aggressive when it comes to top-of-the-market options in free agency. The free agent starting pitching market is of course headlined by NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for whom the Dodgers are considered to be a likely finalist. Looking beyond Yamamoto, the likes of 2023 NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell and World Series champion Jordan Montgomery are still available. The market’s second tier of starting pitchers, meanwhile, includes interesting arms like Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Lucas Giolito. The addition of any of these arms would surely bolster the club’s rotation headed into 2024, and is made all the more feasible by the deferrals reportedly built into Ohtani’s contract.

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