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Phillies’ Interest In Kimbrel, Keuchel Limited To Short-Term Deals

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The Phillies put an end to the lengthiest, most high-profile free agent pursuit in MLB history today when they agreed to terms with Bryce Harper on a 13-year contract worth a record $330MM, And while there have been suggestions that the Phils could look into Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel once their pursuit of the market’s top two position players (Harper and Manny Machado) had wrapped up one way or another, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com tweets that it’s “unlikely” the Phils would sign either unless one pitcher’s asking price suddenly dropped to a short-term deal. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman offers similar thinking, tweeting that while the Phils “may” look into the market’s top remaining free agents, the organization’s “initial thought” would be short-term.

It’s been a quiet offseason in terms of rumors surrounding both pitchers. Keuchel and Kimbrel have different agents but both entered free agency reportedly hoping to score contracts of $100MM or more; that initial asking price may have turned off some suitors entirely, as there’s been little in the way of teams reported to have interest in the duo. That certainly doesn’t mean that the two haven’t had any interest, but the fact that they’re unsigned with just hours until the calendar flips to March also (obviously) suggests that their current asking price isn’t generating much in the way of bites from potential suitors. Unsurprisingly, both are still in search of multi-year deals, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Either pitcher would be an obvious fit for the Phillies, though after adding Harper, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura already this winter, it doesn’t seem as though GM Matt Klentak, president Andy MacPhail and owner John Middleton are prepared to pay top-of-the-market prices. Still, the Phillies are presently relying on a trio of unproven starters — Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez — behind ace Aaron Nola and veteran Jake Arrieta. Velasquez has long been tabbed as a potential reliever in the end anyhow, and bringing Keuchel aboard could push him to that role while adding a durable, dependable arm to the mix.

In the bullpen, the Phillies are looking at Robertson and sophomore Seranthony Dominguez as a formidable one-two punch at the back end of games. A rebound from Hector Neris and/or better health from veterans Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter would give Philadelphia an even deeper collection of ’pen arms, but even with that potentially strong quintet, Kimbrel would push everyone down a peg and give manager Gabe Kapler a cavalcade of impressive arms. (It should be noted, too, that there’s at least a bit of early concern surrounding Hunter’s right arm.)

Even after adding Harper on his record-setting deal, the Phillies’ 2019 payroll projects at just north of $163MM. Their luxury-tax ledger is a bit more crowded at a projected $191.1MM at present (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), so adding either Kimbrel or Keuchel would likely put the Phils over the $206MM barrier (barring the trade of another player on a guaranteed contract).

Phillies Injury Notes: Hernandez, Quinn, Hunter

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Even as they consider further acquisitions, the Phillies are dealing with a few health issues involving existing players. None seem particularly worrisome, but a few are worthy of note as the roster takes shape:

  • Second baseman Cesar Hernandez has been diagnosed with a grade 1 hip flexor strain, Matt Breen of Philly.com was among those to report on Twitter. It’s not known at this point how long the injury will keep him sidelined, though it’s surely promising that the diagnosis is of the lowest grade. Hernandez has been plenty durable in recent seasons, though he is already working to return from offseason foot surgery.
  • There’s also some worry surrounding the outfield health. Roman Quinn is dealing with a “mild” oblique strain, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. That’s a tricky area of the body, but the real red flag here is Quinn’s own track record. Since he reached the professional ranks in 2012, the former second-round draft pick has yet to appear in 100 games in a single season. Quinn says he has done everything possible to “put my body in position to work at a high level,” making for a “really frustrating” situation. The Phils will hope that this latest malady heals up quickly, as Quinn had been slated to battle for a job on the MLB roster.
  • Reliever Tommy Hunter, meanwhile, says he’s not terribly concerned with the status of his forearm. While he has been diagnosed with a grade 1 flexor strain, Hunter says the injury is one he has experienced “pretty much every year.” This one was significant enough to require a pause, but it seems he expects to come through just fine. Even if that means missing some time early on in the season, Hunter says he’s confident in the organization’s relief depth.

Latest On Offers To Bryce Harper

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If it seems we’re making only incremental progress in our understanding of the Bryce Harper saga, that may be due to the fact that the bidding is still progressing in a cautious manner. We learned yesterday that the Giants’ interest extended to the ten-year contract range, and there’s more chatter this morning, though it’s fair to wonder whether the recent movement is mostly just setting the stage for a final frenzy.

Harper’s camp seemingly expects to sign a record-breaking contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. It remains to be seen both where Harper will land and what record(s) he’ll break, but Nightengale writes that the three primary remaining contenders — the Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies — “have vowed to provide Harper with either the biggest overall free-agent contract in North American sports history or the largest average annual salary anyone has ever received in the sport.” The present record-holders in each of those two measures are Giancarlo Stanton ($325MM total contract) and Zack Greinke ($34.42MM AAV).

Agent Scott Boras is said to be “circling back with other teams” to see if they wish to get involved at the last moment. Presumably, that’ll include a phone call to the Nationals, Harper’s only professional club to date and a frequent match with Boras clients. It’s unknown at this point whether any other organizations will jump into the mix or whether the bidding is down to a final three. Regardless, Nightengale suggests, it seems the final stage of the process is finally upon us.

Here’s a quick breakdown of where the three aforementioned primary contenders stand, based upon reporting to date:

  • The Phillies “still have the highest offer on the table,” per Nightengale. As Matt Breen of Philly.com reported yesterday, though the club is increasingly pessimistic of landing the star. The Phils are holding the line for the time being, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter), with Harper looking to move past the Stanton guarantee. Clearly, there’s some tension between this report and Nightengale’s assessment of the organizations’ willingness to set new high-water marks in the financial department.
  • The Dodgers are evidently still not willing to go to a decade, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported yesterday on Twitter. They are, however, prepared to “obliterate” Greinke’s AAV record, Nightengale says. It seems the organization believes it’d need to dangle a term of “at least five years,” though that element of the interest is largely unknown. Neither is it known just how high the Dodgers would go in single-season AAV. It’s worth noting that the opt-out(s) included would be of even greater importance under this kind of scenario, though it’s unclear as yet how that could factor in.
  • As for the Giants, Nightengale says the club is willing to go past $300MM on a ten-year term to land Harper. That’s unsurprising, as it emerged yesterday that the San Francisco organization was willing to go to that length, but is notable nevertheless. Nightengale cites “panic and desperation about season-ticket sales and fan interest” as driving what is “strictly an ownership pursuit.”

Hunter Shut Down For Two Weeks Due To Flexor Strain

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  • Phillies setup man Tommy Hunter has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain in his right forearm and won’t throw for two weeks, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen). Hunter, 32, missed the first month of the 2018 season due to a hamstring strain and now looks to be in some degree of jeopardy as pertains to Opening Day 2019, though if he’s cleared to resume activities in two weeks’ time, he could potentially be built back up in time for the regular season. Hunter, owed $9MM in the second season of a two-year contract, pitched to a 3.80 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 64 frames of relief when healthy last season.

Phillies’ Offer To Harper Reportedly Worth More Than $300 Million

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The Phillies have put forth an offer to free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper that would guarantee him more than $300MM, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That would indicate a willingness to top Manny Machado’s record-setting $300MM free-agent deal with the Padres. It’s not clear if Philadelphia’s offer is also greater than Giancarlo Stanton’s overall record $325MM contract.

Heyman suggests that there’s at least one other club that has expressed a willingness to top $300MM to sign Harper, which would be a surprising new development at this stage in his free agency. While the Nationals offered Harper an extremely deferred $300MM back in late September, there have been no recent indications that any of the remaining Harper suitors would come close to that mark

As of yesterday, the Dodgers and Giants were said to be the only two teams still in the mix for Harper, and both were said to be pursuing him on shorter-term contracts with sizable average annual values. The presence of another $300MM+ offer, if accurate, would represent a considerable change of heart for either of those California-based clubs (or the presence of another team involved in the bidding). Joel Sherman of the New York Post explored the situation yesterday, noting that the Dodgers appear willing to offer Harper a record-setting annual value — “at least $35 million a year, perhaps closer to $40 million” — but only over four or, at absolute most, five years. Sherman writes that he spoke to one person involved who “insisted not to undersell the Giants,” as well.

Over the weekend, the Phillies were optimistic of completing a 10-year deal with Harper by yesterday — an outcome that clearly didn’t happen and was likely impacted by the Dodgers’ Sunday-evening meeting with Harper in Las Vegas. Harper still expects to finally make his decision this week, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, bringing to an end an exhausting saga and likely resulting in at least one type of contractual record.

Health Notes: Nelson, Herrera, Swanson, Oaks

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Brewers hurler Jimmy Nelson is pausing his throwing program owing to “arm fatigue discomfort,” president of baseball operations David Stearns tells reporters including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. All involved say they’re unconcerned with the development, with manager Craig Counsell labeling it “a very minor setback.” It has been a long road back already for Nelson, who hasn’t thrown a competitive inning since undergoing a labrum procedure in September of 2017. He’ll need to wait a while longer before taking the bump in a Spring Training contest, with the club understandably maintaining a conservative plan in light of his health history.

More health notes from around the game …

  • The Phillies say that outfielder Odubel Herrera is dealing with a grade 1 hamstring strain, Matt Breen of Philly.com reports on Twitter. He’s said to be “coming along,” though skipper Gabe Kapler couldn’t specify when Herrera will be ready to take the field. It’s not a terribly worrying injury at the outset of camp, though it will limit Herrera’s opportunities to get in a groove after a disappointing 2018 season. The wild card in the situation is the Phils’ ongoing pursuit of Bryce Harper and their as-yet-unknown plans for shuffling the outfield deck if they sign him. The injury might impact Herrera’s marketability, if he’s a player the team would consider moving to make way for Harper.
  • Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson is readying for his first Spring Training game action at the end of the week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). That seems to represent a positive sign for a player who underwent wrist surgery at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign. Swanson had a quiet but reasonably promising 2018 campaign, with sparkling glovework and baserunning making up for still-lagging production at the plate. Swanson produced only a .238/.304/.395 slash (80 wRC+) with 14 home runs and ten steals over 533 plate appearances, but that represented a step forward after a rough 2017 effort. He’ll open camp with a presumption of at least semi-regular playing time, but could face pressure from Johan Camargo over the course of the season.
  • Hip surgery is on the table for Royals righty Trevor Oaks, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reports (subscription link). If it is determined that he needs to go under the knife for a labrum tear, the 25-year-old will miss a significant portion of the season to come. Oaks turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball at Triple-A last year after he was acquired in last winter’s Scott Alexander swap. He managed only 4.9 K/9 with 3.1 BB/9 on the year, though did post a 50.2% groundball rate (which actually lags his well-above-average minor-league career groundball numbers). Oaks also made a brief MLB debut in 2018. As Dodd explains, it didn’t seem likely that he’d crack the active roster to open the coming campaign. Nevertheless, the loss would dent the Royals’ rotation depth.

Bryce Harper Expected To Make Decision This Week

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12:35pm: Harper’s decision is expected to come this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. At the moment, the only three teams in the mix for him are the Phillies, Dodgers and Giants.

10:00am: The Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still on a shorter-term pact, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Harper and agent Scott Boras are still eyeing a long-term deal. Mark Feisand of MLB.com tweets that the Phillies are the only team currently negotiating a “true” long-term deal with Harper and agent Boras. The Giants, like the Dodgers, are still only interested at shorter terms than the 10-year offer Philadelphia is reportedly willing to put on the table.

7:38am: The Dodgers have jumped back into the Bryce Harper bidding and held a meeting with him as recently as last night, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Dodgers officials, including manager Dave Roberts, were seen in Las Vegas to meet with Harper. Per Jeff Passan and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter links), the Dodgers re-engaged with Harper’s camp two weeks ago, although at the time, they were still hoping to secure Harper on a shorter-term pact. Harper, however, has been seeking at least a 10-year deal and has not budged from that thinking, Passan notes.

While there has not been any firm indication that the Dodgers are now willing to put forth a decade-long offer (or longer), the meeting is nonetheless quite notable at this juncture in Harper’s free-agent saga. Over the weekend, Phillies owner John Middleton also visited Harper in his home city, and reports at the time indicated that there was optimism surrounding the possibility of finalizing a 10-year deal with Harper as soon as tonight. That could still prove to true, but the question for many onlookers had been whether the Phillies were bidding against themselves. That no longer appears to be the case, as the Vegas meeting between the Dodgers and Harper suggests a rather sincere level of interest on their end.

Los Angeles has already added one big-ticket outfield item this winter, signing A.J. Pollock to a four-year deal worth $55MM, and bringing Harper aboard would give them a new right fielder to go along with their new-look center fielder. It’d also muddy the outfield mix a bit, leaving only one spot with Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger in need of at-bats there. Bellinger could also see time at first base, of course, although that would come at the cost of playing time for 2018 breakout slugger Max Muncy.

That said, the Dodgers are never ones to shy away from cultivating extreme levels of depth, and bringing Harper into the fold would create an extraordinarily deep mix of offensive options for Roberts. Of course, the Dodgers have also reportedly explored deals involving Pederson this winter as well, and signing Harper could also prove to be a harbinger for the trade of another outfielder.

The Dodgers already traded away Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood in what looked at the time to be a trade that opened both roster space and luxury tax breathing room for a possible Harper addition, but the only notable signing they’ve made since that swap was Pollock’s four-year pact. Adding Harper would definitively skyrocket the Dodgers into luxury tax territory, as they’re already only about $4MM shy of that threshold, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Quick Hits: Harper, Phillies, Giants, Barreto, A’s

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Rule changes are coming to major league baseball and – if these changes occur – they could favor a long-term union between the Phillies and Bryce Harper, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Adding the designated hitter to the National League, though still very much in question, would help preserve Harper’s body long-term and keep his bat in the lineup even if his glovework doesn’t rebound after a difficult 2018. Salisbury also mentions the elimination of the shift and the proposed three-batter minimum for pitchers as rule changes that could benefit Harper and the Phillies in the long-term. Of course, these changes would be implemented league-wide, so if in fact they would benefit Harper, they’d benefit him wherever he lands. It’s particularly curious to list the potential adoption of the designated hitter as a benefit to a Harper-Phillies marriage, as there are fifteen teams not based in Philadelphia who could claim that benefit today (though he’s not wrong). Speculation of the future can begin in earnest as soon as Harper puts pen to paper, which some think will happen by tomorrow latest, while Buster Olney of ESPN suggests a resolution could come by Tuesday. As we await the big decision, let’s see what else is happening around the league…

  • The answer in San Francisco continues to be “not much” as fans await a splashy move from new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, per Al Saracevic of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s not all doom-and-gloom for Giants fans, some of whom are holding out hope for a Harper signing. Harper continues to make sense for the Giants, who lack established bats in the outfield, but signing him would be a quick pivot for Zaidi, who has preached patience in the early going. Of course, Harper is a unique case. If he ends up with the Giants, fans will certainly have something to be excited about, and if he doesn’t, they can at least look forward to reaping the long-term benefits of Zaidi’s prudence.
  • Franklin Barreto began a new endeavor in his career with five innings in left field yesterday. The starting second base job belongs to Jurickson Profar for now, and it appears as if the bench role will go to Chad Pinder, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. Barreto was the A’s top prospect per Baseball America in both 2016 and 2017, but after struggling through two short stints in the majors the last two seasons, Barreto’s future in Oakland is muddled. Jed Lowrie’s free agency seemed an opportunity for Barreto to stake his claim to the keystone, but the Profar acquisition thrust Barreto back into limbo. He’ll be 23 this season, slated to begin the year R Triple A where’s he has played most of the last three seasons.  Barreto has only one option year remaining, making 2019 a make-or-break year. Pinder, meanwhile, has three option years remaining, but established his value to the big league club last season by hitting .258/.332/.436 while appearing at every position except pitcher and catcher.

“Optimism” Phillies, Bryce Harper Will Finalize 10-Year Deal By Monday

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9:55pm: Harper’s camp actually negotiated with two teams in Las Vegas on Saturday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s not clear who was vying against the Phillies, though, nor is it known whether the other club made any progress in talks.

9:41pm: Middleton is still in Vegas, and there’s “optimism” the Phillies and Harper will finalize a 10-year deal by Monday afternoon, Nightengale reports.

9:19pm: Middleton’s plane is returning to the East Coast, but the two sides had a “busy day of meetings” and talks will continue, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly tweets.

8:39pm: The Phillies are engaged in “deep and serious negotiations” with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Team owner John Middleton, who’s meeting with Harper’s camp in Las Vegas, doesn’t want to leave without a deal in place, according to Nightengale.

The Vegas-based meeting between the Phillies and Team Harper, which also includes agent Scott Boras, is their second summit since Jan. 10. After the sides’ initial sitdown, Nightengale named Philadelphia as the favorite to sign Harper, which has remained the case in the ensuing weeks. Now, with the season fast approaching and the current class’ other elite free agent, Manny Machado, having come off the board this week, a resolution for Harper may finally be on the way.

Machado’s months-long stay on the open market came to an end when he accepted the Padres’ 10-year, $300MM offer. The Phillies also had interest in Machado, but they weren’t willing to approach the Padres’ proposal, leaving Harper as the clear-cut best free agent available. Having watched Machado come off the board, the Phillies  “will be much more reluctant to walk away” from Harper, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer relayed this week.

Whether with the Phillies or another team, Harper seemingly has a good chance to exceed Machado’s guarantee – the largest ever given to a free agent. However, the 26-year-old Harper’s market hasn’t quite come together as expected this offseason, evidenced in part by his unemployed status as March nears. Aside from the Phillies, who entered the offseason promising to spend (which they’ve done, albeit nowhere close to “stupid” amounts), the Nationals, White Sox, Padres and Giants have shown varying levels of interest in Harper. Among that group, Philly easily looks like the most aggressive team in the race. Although Harper has spent his entire career in Washington, where he has starred, team owner Mark Lerner painted a bleak picture Friday when asked if the Nationals would re-sign him. Meanwhile, the White Sox may not even bid on Harper, the Padres don’t appear to be serious suitors, and the Giants are shying away from a long-term commitment.

All things considered, it seems the stars are aligning for the Phillies to land their coveted target after months of chasing him. While the Phillies haven’t finished above .500 in a season since 2011 and are mired in a seven-year playoff drought, they’re making a strong push to contend in 2019. Regardless of what happens with Harper, Philadelphia has already made major improvements this offseason by acquiring catcher J.T. Realmuto, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson. But there’s still plenty of room for Harper, a Hall of Fame-level talent who could help propel the franchise back to relevance.

Bryce Harper Meeting With Phillies Owner John Middleton

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8:32pm: There is a meeting, Heyman tweets, but the matter of Harper’s destination has yet to be decided. Other teams are still involved at this point.

8:14pm: Private planes and visits to Las Vegas have featured prominently throughout the courtship of free agent outfielder Bryce Harper, and that’s true again tonight. Phillies owner John Middleton — or, at least, his jet — is currently gracing the tarmac in Harper’s hometown, a source tells Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (Twitter link).

“Team Bryce” (presumably, the player, his wife, his agent Scott Boras, and others) is also in Sin City at the moment, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). That makes it easy to imagine a forthcoming late-night rendezvous between representatives of the open market’s most willing spender and its biggest star — though Heyman adds that Middleton appears to be on his own, without president Andy MacPhail or GM Matt Klentak.

Of course, we’ve yet to hear any specific indication that a meeting is in the works. At this stage of the proceedings, though, even the (seemingly strong) possibility warrants close attention. Harper, after all, took center stage when Manny Machado recently signed a ten-year, $300MM pact with the Padres. He was joined in the spotlight by the Phils, who came in third in the bidding for Machado after entering the winter with expectations of landing a superstar.

These sides have held an in-person pow-wow already, back in early January. That was perhaps more of a meet-and-great. It’s fair to wonder whether a repeat visit is designed to finalize agreement on what promises to be a very large contract. Middleton and Boras combined last winter to deliver Jake Arrieta to his new home on a private jet; it could be they’re making similar arrangements now.

The market developments have remained mysterious since Machado reportedly agreed to terms. Word emerged (see here and here) that the Phillies felt in command, with the Giants still involved, the Padres trying to see if they could somehow finagle a stunning double-play, and the White Sox bowing out of contention. Today, the Nationals seemingly indicated they were on the sidelines.

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