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Phillies Promote Preston Mattingly To General Manager

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The Phillies announced today that vice president and general manager Sam Fuld is pursuing his MBA at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is slated to graduate in May of 2026, at which point he will take the title of president of business operations. Assistant general manager Preston Mattingly has been promoted to take the role of vice president and general manager.

Fuld, 42, played in the majors from 2007 to 2015. Given that he went to college at Stanford and majored in economics, he was viewed by many in the game as a future front office member. He got hired by the Phillies in 2017 with the title of major league player information coordinator. His name was then connected to various managerial openings over the years but he stuck with the Phils and was promoted to GM going into 2021. Dave Dombrowski had just been hired as the club’s president of baseball operations and Fuld would be second on the baseball decision-making pyramid.

The two sides have seemingly been happy with the relationship. In December of 2022, Fuld and the Phils signed an extension running through December 2025. In October of 2023, the Red Sox had some interest in Fuld replace chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, though Fuld declined to be interviewed for the opening.

Since Dombrowski is 68 years old, many considered Fuld a sort of protege or a president-in-waiting, but now it seems he is planning a shift. His focus will be away from the club for the next couple of years and he will return to direct his attention to the business side, rather than the baseball side.

Mattingly, 37, will now take over as Dombrowski’s second-in-command. The son of Don Mattingly, Preston played in the minors for a while but never got higher than High-A. He pivoted to non-playing roles, working with the Padres in the scouting department. In the fall of 2021, he was plucked away by the Phils, who hired him as director of player development.

He has clearly impressed the Phils, as he got promoted to assistant general manager just two years later, in November of 2023. After a year with that title, he has gotten bumped up again. He is still second on the club’s front office hierarchy, but it’s an impressive rise in a short time and it’s possible that he could eventually replace Dombrowski, depending on how things go. For now, given that there’s more than 30 years’ difference in age between the two, Mattingly will presumably be absorbing everything he can about the role from Dombrowski as he takes on a larger piece of the club’s front office makeup.

Phillies Exploring Outfield, Right-Handed Relief Markets

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The Phillies head into the offseason with a star-studded roster and substantial payroll obligation, though owner John Middleton has already expressed confidence that the 2025 payroll will increase. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has at multiple points hinted at potential trades rather than free agent pursuits, speaking of a need to be “open-minded” as he looks to augment a roster that’s been a perennial playoff club but fallen shy of a World Series win (or even a World Series appearance). The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports that the Phils have signaled a desire to add an outfielder and at least one right-handed reliever.

As laid out in our Phillies Offseason Outlook, adding in the outfield is one of the most logical pursuits for a Phillies club that has established contributors at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first base (Bryce Harper), second base (Bryson Stott), shortstop (Trea Turner), third base (Alec Bohm), right field (Nick Castellanos) and designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber). Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas offer options in the remaining two outfield spots, but the Phils aren’t likely to simply roll the same lineup back out in 2024 after another shorter-than-hoped season. Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon, as Marsh bats left-handed to the more defensively gifted Rojas’ right-handed bat. That’d open a path for one incoming outfielder, but Dombrowski’s repeated chorus of “open-minded” approaches to reshaping his offense have prompted natural speculation about trades.

From that standpoint, it’s hard to imagine deals involving Realmuto, Harper, Turner and Schwarber. All have been viewed as core pieces in Philadelphia. The Phillies would probably love to move on from the final two years and $40MM on Castellanos’ contract, but Castellanos is a poor defender who hasn’t hit nearly as well in Philadelphia as he did in his free-agent platform season with the Reds. The Phils would need to pay down a good portion of that contract and/or include a prospect to find a taker.

Bohm, Marsh, Stott and to a lesser extent Rojas are the big league position players who could more plausibly be flipped elsewhere as the Phillies try to reshape their identity. Gelb also lists lefty starter Ranger Suarez as a possibility. Their contractual statuses are as follows:

  • Suarez: Controlled through 2025 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.9MM in 2025 (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
  • Bohm: Controlled through 2026 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.1MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Marsh: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Stott: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3.5MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
  • Rojas: Controlled through 2029, pre-arbitration in 2025

Obviously, the valuation on each player will vary. Suarez would be a one-year rental for a club and would require the Phils — already in need of a starter and likely hoping to dump the remaining two years and $36MM on Taijuan Walker’s contract this offseason — to replace him. He posted a 3.46 ERA with strong strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.5%) rates in 150 2/3 innings this season but also missed a month with a back injury and struggled from July through September. Plenty of teams would still love to plug him into their rotation.

Bohm is the most consistently productive but has the highest salary and lowest amount of club control remaining of the position players. He also cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season. He was one of the game’s most productive hitters through early March (.360/.430/.576 in 142 plate appearances) before reverting to his usual brand of roughly average offense for the remainder of the season (.256/.302/.410 over his next 464 plate appearances). Bohm improved his glovework this year and hit righties better than usual but was still notably more productive against left-handed pitching.

Marsh can handle all three outfield spots but is best suited for left field. He’s never hit lefties well but is well above-average versus righties. He runs well and could probably pop 20 homers with a full season of at-bats, though that’d mean lesser rate stats and more plate appearances versus lefties. He’s hit 28 homers in 948 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Marsh is a useful part-time player, but his 31% strikeout rate since 2023 (and 32.8% career mark) is rather concerning, especially since he’s been platooned so often.

Stott is a plus defender and strong baserunner with 15-homer pop. He makes plenty of contact but has really only had one average season at the plate (2023), in addition to a pair of below-average campaigns during which he’s still been a solid overall contributor because of his glove and speed. If a team with budget problems and no concrete option at shortstop would view him as an outside-the-box candidate at short, his market could expand. Stott hasn’t graded as well there in 770 big league innings but has more than 2000 professional innings at short.

Rojas is an even more extreme case of the speed-and-defense skill set. He’s a plus center fielder with excellent speed but turned in just a .243/.279/.322 slash in 2024 (68 wRC+) and is a career .261/.298/.355 hitter (81 wRC+) in 527 big league plate appearances.

Dombrowski has publicly suggested that he needs to be open to trading “good players” in order to get talent in return. Speculatively speaking, Bohm feels like the most plausible fit, as he’s set to earn the most money, has the least club control remaining and plays a position (third base) where the free-agent market is quite thin this offseason. There could be paths to flipping Bohm for a bullpen arm, a back-of-the-rotation starter or an outfielder, and shedding his payroll could also free the Phillies to pursue other options at the hot corner or give them more money to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and longtime Phils beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury took a deep dive into the possibilities on the latest episode of their podcast. All three acknowledged that Dombrowski’s repeated phrases this offseason have not-so-quietly signaled a trade is likely. In addition to repeating the “open-minded” line on several occasions, Dombrowski has at least twice suggested the Phillies have enough star players on the roster. At his end-of-season press conference, Dombrowski said his club has “as many star players as about anybody in baseball” before adding that sometimes “the supporting cast” is where the biggest need sits.

Gelb notes in the previously referenced piece that Dombrowski doubled down on that thinking at this week’s GM Meetings. Asked if the Phils would be “big-game hunting” this winter, the Phils’ president replied: “Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things. But sometimes that’s not what you want. We have a lot of good star players on our team. So, read that as you would.”

Jeff Hoffman Garnering Interest As Starter

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Jeff Hoffman’s breakout as an elite reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen over the past two seasons played a huge role in the team’s success, but now that he’s a free agent it’s possible he’ll sign in a completely different role. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported within his ranking of the offseason’s top free agents that some clubs have considered pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his own report, further pointing out that Hoffman is represented the same agency (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez during his own switch from the bullpen to the rotation last winter.

Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant force in the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early in the 2023 season. Recency bias might conjure up the unflattering memory of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown against the Mets, but from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball while punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings against the Mets isn’t an ideal final memory, but Hoffman also snapped off six shutout innings of relief with eight strikeouts and no walks during the 2023 NLCS.

Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief, there’s reason to believe he could succeed in a lengthier role. First and foremost, the former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter in his college days at East Carolina University and began his pro career in a rotation role. He started 11 big league games as recently as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t move to a full-time relief role until his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 professional games (majors and minors combined); 145 of them (40%) have been starts.

Beyond his familiarity with the role, Hoffman still uses a four-pitch repertoire even when working out of the bullpen. Many relievers who were once starters narrow their arsenal down to two pitches when they move to a short relief role. Hoffman still threw four pitches at least 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. Those numbers would surely go down were Hoffman to begin working five, six and seven innings at a time, but even with reduced life on his fastballs he could still have average or better velocity. The league-average starting pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph with his four-seamer, per Statcast.

Among those four pitches, Statcast has ranked them all as plus offerings over the past two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has easily been the best of the bunch, producing a huge 20.6% swinging-strike rate and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when finishing off a plate appearance with that offering (dating back to Opening Day 2023). Again, whether he could sustain that level of dominance when facing opponents a second and third time through the order isn’t certain, but Hoffman’s wipeout slider has played an enormous role in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.

There are health and performance risks when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors combined) in a season since 2019. Even among the reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out nicely in 2024, no one from the bunch worked what could be considered a full workload.

Garrett Crochet came the closest, compiling 146 innings across 32 starts, but the White Sox didn’t allow him to pitch more than four innings in a start after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings but had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder inflammation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 but was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 due to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived in the rotation through late May before stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 in the early summer and being dropped back to the ’pen in mid-July. He finished at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is perhaps the best recent example of success in this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this past season’s Royals.

Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman is still likelier to sign as a reliever. It’s the role in which he’s dominated over the past two seasons, and while he’s not the No. 1 reliever in this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, including MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be considered the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.

Gelb suggests Hoffman may prefer the relief role, though logically speaking, one would imagine he’d simply take the best offer possible. This is Hoffman’s first real crack at a notable MLB contract. He took home a signing bonus of just over $3MM in the draft but was non-tendered throughout his arbitration years and earned a relatively modest $2.2MM this past season in his final arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s career earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize top dollar, regardless of location or role.

Phillies Chairman John Middleton Expects Higher Payroll In 2025

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The Phillies are no strangers to big spending, as the last four seasons have seen the club post the four highest Opening Day payrolls in franchise history.  It looks as though the payroll ceiling will continue to rise heading into 2025, as team chairman John Middleton told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer earlier this week.

“Given where we are in contract cycles and minor league people coming up, I expect the player payroll to be higher [than this year] rather than lower,” Middleton said.  “I’d be surprised if it’s the same, and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower.  I don’t see it being lower.”

According to projections from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and RosterResource, the Phillies have roughly somewhere between $259MM-$270MM already committed to their 2025 payroll in terms of pure dollars.  The luxury tax number is even higher, with Cot’s projecting an approximate tax number of $281.5MM, and RosterResource has a rough estimate of around $288.4MM.

In either case, the Phillies are already slightly or well beyond the third tax penalty tier of $281MM.  While the Phillies have paid the tax in each of the the last three seasons, the third tier has been something of an unofficial internal limit for the Phils during the Middleton era, though he has said in the past that it is by no means a hard cap.  Middleton reiterated as much to Lauber, saying that “for the right player, I have a high degree of confidence that [president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski] and I would go over the third limit.”

As Middleton noted, a spending increase was already baked into the Phillies’ plans due to internal raises alone.  Zack Wheeler’s extension kicks in this winter, so he’ll go from a $23.5MM salary in 2024 to $42MM in each of the next three seasons.  Philadelphia also has a pretty large arbitration class, and might save only around $8.7MM if Austin Hays, Kolby Allard, and Garrett Stubbs are all non-tendered as expected.

Dombrowski could find some creative way to move some larger contracts (say, the money owed to Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker) off the books to give the Phils a little more breathing room on the payroll front, though such swaps are much easier said than done.  What Middleton didn’t address was whether or not the Phillies would be willing to top the fourth and final spending tier of $301MM in order to add another big-ticket talent on top of the Phils’ pre-existing core.

Phillies Acquire Devin Sweet, Claim John McMillon

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The Phillies announced they acquired reliever Devin Sweet from the Tigers and added him to the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also claimed reliever John McMillon off waivers from the Marlins and selected righty Alan Rangel onto the 40-man. The Phils dropped Kolby Allard, Yunior Marté, Freddy Tarnok, Luis Ortiz and Rodolfo Castro from the roster by running them through outright waivers.

Sweet had not been on Detroit’s 40-man roster. He was set to reach minor league free agency today. While Detroit evidently wasn’t going to select his contract, the Phils were intrigued enough to carry him on the roster. The 28-year-old righty posted big numbers for the Tigers’ top affiliate in Toledo. Sweet struck out almost 34% of Triple-A hitters and posted a 3.91 ERA through 76 innings. He has limited MLB experience, allowing 10 runs in 8 2/3 innings between two teams in 2023.

McMillon changes hands via waivers for the second time in a few months. Miami grabbed the 6’3″ righty from Kansas City in early August. McMillon pitched well over 10 appearances for the Fish but ended the year on the injured list with elbow tightness. The Texas Tech product has an earned run average approaching 5.00 over four seasons in the minors. He averages north of 95 MPH on his fastball, so it’s a low-risk flier on a pitcher with a decent arm and two minor league options remaining.

Rangel, 27, signed a minor league deal with Philadelphia in July. The Mexican-born righty tossed 29 1/3 innings of 4.30 ERA ball in a swing role in Triple-A. He didn’t miss many bats but showed solid control. Rangel, who has yet to make his big league debut, would have been eligible for minor league free agency again this winter.

Of the players coming off the roster, Allard and Marté had the biggest roles this year. The former worked as a depth starter and posted an even 5.00 earned run average through 27 innings. The latter was hit hard to the tune of a 6.92 ERA across 26 frames in a middle relief role. Ortiz made one appearance but missed the majority of the year to ankle and shoulder problems. Castro played in Triple-A, where he tore a thumb ligament in August. Tarnok didn’t pitch in the majors after the Phillies claimed him from the A’s in June.

Angels Acquire Scott Kingery From Phillies

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The Angels have acquired infielder Scott Kingery from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations, according to announcements from both clubs. Kingery wasn’t on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster and won’t need to take a spot with the Angels.

Kingery, 31 in April, was once a highly-touted prospect. The Phils had enough confidence in his future that they signed him to a long-term extension before he had even made his major league debut. In March of 2018, the Phils gave Kingery a $24MM guarantee covering the 2018-2023 seasons, with three club options as well.

Unfortunately, Kingery wasn’t able to live up to his prospect billing or that contract. He can steal a few bases and and play defense all over the diamond but he simply hasn’t hit enough to be a useful big leaguer. He currently has a batting line of just .229/.280/.387 in 1,127 plate appearances in the majors.

The Phils outrighted him off their roster in both 2021 and 2022, with no club willing to grab the remainder of the contract off waivers. He had surpassed three years of service time and had the right to elect free agency instead of accepting those outright assignments. However, since he was under the five-year service mark, walking away would have involved leaving the remainder of his contract on the table. Naturally, he reported to the minors and continued playing out the rest of his deal. The Phils turned down his ’24 club option but he stayed in the organization at that point as well.

Though the contract was a bust, Kingery just wrapped up a solid season in the minors. He took 505 plate appearances for the IronPigs and hit 25 home runs. The offensive environment in the International League was quite strong this year, so his robust line of .268/.316/.488 was only marginally above league average, translating to a wRC+ of 104.

Kingery stole 25 bases and continued bouncing around the diamond this year, playing second base, shortstop and center field. He has past experience at third base and in the outfield corners.

With those traits, he could perhaps be a useful player even with some semi-competent offense. He hasn’t been able to do that in his major league career so far but it’s a low-risk move for the Angels as Kingery isn’t even taking up a roster spot for now.

The Angels have a few question marks in their position player mix. Luis Rengifo projects as the top second base option but his 2024 was ended by wrist surgery. Even if he comes back healthy, he might need to bounce to other positions. Third baseman Anthony Rendon has been extremely injury-prone in recent years and Rengifo has often had to cover the hot corner. Mike Trout has also missed significant time in center field recently and might get moved to a corner or into the designated hitter spot with more frequency going forward.

Kingery can give them some extra minor league depth all over the diamond. He will try to earn a roster spot and the opportunity for a post-hype breakout.

Doug Bird Passes Away

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11-year MLB veteran Doug Bird passed away late last month, according to an obituary from a North Carolina funeral home. The former Royals, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox right-hander was 74 years old.

A California native in his early years, Bird was drafted by the Royals in the summer of 1969. He spent the next few years as a starter in the minor leagues before making his big league debut with Kansas City on April 29, 1973 as a reliever. His rookie season out of the bullpen was a strong one, as he pitched to an excellent 2.99 ERA in 102 1/3 innings of work. It was more of the same over the next two years, as Bird would go on to post a 3.01 ERA in 197 2/3 frames from 1974-75.

That strong resume in relief earned Bird a move into the rotation for the Royals’ 1976 season, though he still made 12 appearances out of the bullpen on top of his 27 starts that year. Bird was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Royals that year, posting a 3.37 ERA that clocked in just above league average across his 197 2/3 innings of work. 1976 also saw Bird pitch in the first of three consecutive ALCS match-ups between the Royals and Yankees. He earned the win in Game 4 of the ’76 ALCS with 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in relief of southpaw Larry Gura.

In 1977 and beyond, Bird moved back into a relief role. That change suited him just fine, as he told Norman L. Macht in a 2003 interview about his career that he preferred working out of the bullpen because starting pitchers were stuck “sitting around for four days doing nothing.” He took a bit of a step back in terms of productivity over his final two seasons with the Royals, as he surrendered a 4.52 ERA in 217 innings spread across 11 starts and 82 relief appearances before being traded to the Phillies in April of 1979. Bird’s stint with the Phillies was short-lived, however, as he struggled through one season with the club before being released by the club.

That led Bird to sign on with the Yankees, and he enjoyed something of a career renaissance with the club in the early 1980’s. While he donned pinstripes for just parts of two seasons, he was nothing short of excellent out of the Bronx bullpen during that time with a 2.68 ERA in 104 dominant innings of work. He was traded to Chicago partway through the 1981 season, however, and found himself moved back into a rotation role with the Cubs. The experiment went pretty well down the stretch that year, as Bird posted an above-average 3.58 ERA in 75 1/3 innings of work across 12 starts, but the 1982 season left much to be desired as he surrendered a 5.14 ERA in 191 innings before being traded to the Red Sox for the final season of his career. He pitched 67 2/3 frames for Boston before retiring that September at the age of 33.

Across his 11 seasons in the major leagues, the right-hander went 73-60 with a 3.99 ERA in 1213 2/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR extend our condolences to Bird’s family, friends, and loved ones.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS.  This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.

Guaranteed Contracts

2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games.  Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.

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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2026

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The Phillies expressed their continued confidence in manager Rob Thomson and his coaching staff today, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealing that Thomson has been extended through the 2026 season and his full staff will return in 2025 (per reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson’s previous contract ran through the 2025 campaign, so it would have left him in lame duck limbo entering next season. As for the rest of the coaches, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Phillies were holding “evaluation meetings” in which they would decide whether or not to make any changes to the coaching staff. Evidently, the team’s top decision makers came away from those meetings feeling good about the group of coaches that has led the club to three consecutive postseason appearances.

Thomson took over as the Phillies’ manager partway through the 2022 season, replacing his long-time boss Joe Girardi. A baseball lifer, Thomson had no big league managerial experience at the time, but he had been a major league coach for the Yankees and Phillies since 2004 and a minor league coach and manager (and briefly a front office executive) since 1988. Over parts of three seasons at the helm in Philadelphia, he has led the team to a 250-185 (.575) record, two Wild Card berths, one NL East division title, and one NL pennant. The Phillies have also gone 20-14 in the playoffs under his leadership.

While this year’s postseason run ended much sooner than the Phillies and their fans might have anticipated, there was little reason to think a change was in order atop the dugout steps. That being said, it’s noteworthy that Thomson has now received one-year extensions in back-to-back offseasons. Clearly, the organization doesn’t want him managing as a lame duck, but at the same time, they have been hesitant to give him a long-term deal.

Slightly more surprising than Thomson’s extension is the fact that his full coaching staff will remain intact next season. After all, it’s quite common for a coach or two to get the scapegoat treatment after a season ends in disappointment. However, it’s important to remember how well the Phillies played over the 162-game regular season and not just their poor performance in the NLDS. They were above-average in just about every aspect of the game, including hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding. That’s not to say there’s no room for improvement, but Dombrowski appears to be sticking with an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. That approach worked well this past season, in which the Phillies ran it back with nearly the exact same roster and coaching staff they had the year before and managed to improve by five games.

The Phillies coaching staff includes pitching coach Caleb Cotham, assistant pitching coach/director of pitching development Brian Kaplan, hitting coach Kevin Long, bench coach Mike Calitri, third base coach Dusty Wathan, first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa, and infield coach Bobby Dickerson, among others. Interestingly, all seven of those coaches joined the staff before Thomson took over as skipper. Managers often like to put together their own group of coaches, but Thomson seems happy working alongside the staff he inherited.

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