NL Central Notes: Liriano, Pirates, Brewers, Cardinals, Tanking
Francisco Liriano embodies the rising trend of pitchers throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever, writes Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom. In 2014-15, Liriano recorded to two lowest single-season zone percentage marks (the number of pitches thrown in the designated strike zone) since the stat began being tracked. However, he also coerced opposing hitters into chasing more than a third of his out-of-zone pitches, yielding high quality results in his third year with the Pirates. As Fagerstrom notes, though, the decrease of pitches in the strike zone is not confined to Liriano’s left arm but is rather a league-wide phenomenon. And, despite the rapidly decreasing number of pitches thrown in the zone, hitters are failing to adjust and continuing to chase. While it’s not the case with Liriano specifically, Fagerstrom hypothesizes that the record levels of velocity throughout the game mean hitters must be more geared up for velocity than ever before, thereby limiting their ability to recognize and lay off breaking pitches out of the zone. Additionally, he speculates that the fact that umpires are continuing to expand the strike zone creates a greater urgency within hitters to protect themselves at the plate. It’s an interesting analysis that’s well worth reading in its entirety. (Additionally, while his column doesn’t state this, Fagerstrom’s analysis reminds how strong Liriano’s work was in the first season of a three-year, $39MM investment that right now looks to be an excellent move for the club.)
Onto some other items pertaining more closely to the Pirates and their division…
- The Pirates will face a challenge in replacing Francisco Cervelli, who hits free agency next winter, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates have picked up a trio of excellent pitch-framers in Cervelli, Russell Martin and Chris Stewart in recent years, but the Martin contract shows what a premium the market now places on catcher defense, Sawchik notes, thus making it seem unlikely that they’ll re-sign Cervelli, who could end up as the market’s most valuable catcher. Sawchik sees no chance that the two sides will hammer out an extension, and he points out that while top prospect Reese McGuire draws strong praise for his glovework, he can’t be expected to be a contributor before 2018.
- Later in that same piece, Sawchik notes that the Pirates‘ front office has taken a number of significant hits this winter — the most recent of which is the loss of Tyrone Brooks to the Commissioner’s Office. Brooks, the former director of player personnel, oversaw the team’s international and pro scouting efforts and played a large role in the acquisition of Jung Ho Kang. The Pirates have also lost special assistants Jim Benedict (who was renowned for his work with the team’s pitchers) and Marc DelPiano — both of whom left the organization to take positions with the Marlins.
- There’s been little in the way of trade talk surrounding Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun, Jon Heyman tweeted recently. Milwaukee has made more of an effort with catcher Jonathan Lucroy to this point, per Heyman, perhaps due to the club’s recognition of what would be a limited market for Braun. The asking price on Lucroy is said to be high, though Lucroy himself is open to a deal. As for Braun, his five-year, $105MM extension begins this season, but his value has been tarnished by a PED suspension as well as offseason back surgery and a nerve issue in his thumb that twice required a cryotherapy treatment last year. Braun did enjoy a nice season at the plate, however, hitting .285/.356/.498 with 25 homers and 24 steals.
- Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta‘s second-half decline may have been part of the impetus to trade for Jedd Gyorko, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. While Peralta himself said this past weekend that he doesn’t feel he wore down late in the year and always wants to play in as many games as possible, the 33-year-old batted just .247/.313/.305 over the season’s final two months. Hummel writes that Gyorko could be used to spell Peralta at third base despite a suspect glove at the position. Moreover, he notes that Aledmys Diaz, fresh off a monster second half and Arizona Fall League showing, could soon knock on the door to the Majors. “We’re excited where he is,” said GM John Mozeliak of Diaz. “I think you’ll probably see (Diaz) playing in the big leagues at some point this year, I wouldn’t rule that out at all and I welcome that.” Peralta expressed comfort with moving anywhere on the diamond, should the need arise, citing previous experience at third base and even at first base and in the outfield.
- “Tanking” has become a popular buzzword due to the number of rebuilding clubs in the National League, but Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron rejects the idea that any of the so-called tanking teams is actually trying to lose as many games as possible. The Brewers have held onto the likes of Lucroy and Will Smith thus far despite favorable contracts that appeal to other clubs, and they haven’t paid down a significant portion of Braun’s deal to move his bat, either — a reasonable expectation for a club gunning for the No. 1 pick. The Reds have prioritized proximity to the Majors over long-term upside in trades of veterans and haven’t made an effort to move their best player, Joey Votto, Cameron writes. The Braves have signed Nick Markakis and targeted MLB-ready help like Shelby Miller, Ender Inciarte and Hector Olivera in trades over the past 15 months, to say nothing of their Nick Markakis signing (and, I might add, the complementary signings of A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson and others). The Phillies are the only team that could reasonably fit the definition of “tanking” we see in the NBA, writes Cameron, but the best players in baseball can’t influence a team in the same manner they can in basketball. And, he rhetorically asks, would baseball truly be better off if the Phillies followed the path the Rockies have for the past several years — staunchly refusing to trade veterans (prior to this summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal) and remaining in a noncompetitive state as opposed to “bottoming out in the hopes of bouncing back to high levels?”
NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Braves
Compared to what they did last season, the Nationals may stand to gain the most from their returning players, writes August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs. We all pay attention to the big moves of the offseason – such as the Mets‘ signing of Yoenis Cespedes. It’s easy to forget that player performance is not constant. Using projected WAR, Fagerstrom finds the Nationals could gain about seven wins just from 2015 returnees. In particular, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, and Jayson Werth are projected for rebound campaigns.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- The Phillies are on the hunt for late opportunities, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. GM Matt Klentak said, “every year, it turns out that somebody who we thought was going to sign early and they don’t, they hold out and there’s a deal to be done…if there’s an opportunity out there, we’re going to push forward.” Klentak is comfortable with the team’s current depth, so there’s no guarantee the club with sign or trade for any additional talent before the start of the season.
- Phillies left-handed starter Matt Harrison is still experiencing an ongoing back injury, per Zolecki. Harrison is unlikely to be ready for the start of Spring Training and may not pitch anytime in the near future. The club acquired Harrison as part of the Cole Hamels trade as a means to balance salary. For now, he’s a lottery ticket for the Phillies if he can ever return to health. At some point, the club may decide they value the 40-man roster spot more (this is less of an issue in-season if he’s on the 60-day DL).
- Freddie Freeman thinks the Braves will return to relevance soon, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Freeman is the last man standing from the 2013 roster, marking a surprisingly quick overhaul for John Hart and company. Freeman is excited about the team’s mix of veteran and young talent. The Braves new SunTrust Park is scheduled to open in 2017, and the Braves would surely like to field a contender.
AL Notes: Rays, A’s, Jays, O’s
The Rays won an important political battle late last week in the St. Petersburg City Council, as Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Under the deal that the council approved, the ballclub will have the opportunity to explore possible stadium sites in two neighboring counties for the next three years. Team owner Stuart Sternberg suggested that there’s no plan in place for a new location. “We haven’t done it before,” he said. “I don’t know if it takes a week or six months to identify and figure out a site.” But the organization made clear that it is aiming for something more than bare function. “We want to build the first of the next generation of baseball stadiums,” said president Brian Auld.
- In other stadium news, Athletics majority owner John Fisher is said to be more involved than usual as his club considers possibilities for a new park, as Phil Matier and Andy Ross of the San Francisco Chronicle report. While managing partner Lew Wolff has traditionally been the public face of ownership, Fisher is believed to control 80% of the shares.
- Change continues to filter through the Blue Jays organization, which has recently announced two front office hirings. Mike Murov will come over from the Red Sox to serve as the director of baseball operations, in which role (says the team) he’ll “assist in the preparation and analysis of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation and arbitration preparation.” And Toronto also recently added Gil Kim to their organization as well. Formerly the international scouting director for the Rangers, Kim will serve as the Jays’ director of player development.
- The Orioles have given a promotion to the head of their analytics department, Sarah Gelles, as David Laurila of Fangraphs discusses (among other things) in his Sunday notes column. Now the organization’s Director of Analytics and Major League Contracts, Gelles discusses the development of the club’s analytical efforts, which she helped drive as an intern working for now-Phillies GM Matt Klentak.
Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies
Here’s the latest from around the league:
- With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
- The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
- Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
- The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes‘ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.
Prospect Notes: High Schoolers, Perez, Astros
The NCAA has voted to allow high school players to use an agent when negotiating with major league teams, writes Teddy Cahill of Baseball America. Previously, the use of an agent could qualify a player as a professional and invalidate his NCAA eligibility or result in a suspension. For now, the rule applies to five major conferences. Other D-I conferences have the option to opt in. As you may expect, high school players must end their relationship with the agent if they opt to attend college. A few more conditions apply.
The previous rule that banned player-agent relationships was most recently in the news in early 2014 when the Phillies accused fifth-round pick Ben Wetzler of using an agent. Wetzler did not sign with the Phillies and was subsequently banned for 20 percent of his senior season. While the new rule will help high school players in a similar situation, it would not have saved Wetzler. Drafted college juniors are still disallowed from using an agent.
- Shortstop Delvin Perez is the best prospect in Puerto Rico and a legitimate option as the top player in the draft, writes Keith Law of ESPN. The 17-year-old headlines a group of several top Puerto Rican prospect. Law cites 70 grade speed on the 20-80 scouting scale to go with a plus arm, hands, and raw power. He should eventually hit for average too, although he currently has trouble with offspeed stuff. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is the most recent 17-year-old top prospect out of Puerto Rico. Perez is a faster player with better defensive ability, but he lacks Correa’s polish. Instead, Law compares him to Byron Buxton and Justin Upton, both of whom were considered raw, elite talents when drafted. For those keeping track at home, the Phillies hold the first overall pick.
- Law also has notes on other notable Puerto Ricans. Of those he profiled, he seems most enamored with Jose Miranda, citing great bat speed, some power, and a need for more polish. He’s currently a shortstop with a chance to stick at the position, but Law sees him as a better fit for second or third base.
- Since 2012, the Astros have the best minor league winning percentage, writes J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. Incidentally, that window corresponds with GM Jeff Luhnow’s tenure. The club does well to reward its minor league affiliates, including rings and big team dinners when they win a championship. First base prospect Tyler White offers an interesting anecdote – he’s won a championship in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A over the last three seasons. The winning culture not only means the club has a talented bunch of minor leaguers, it’s also good for player development.
NL Notes: Parity, CarGo, Cubs, Reds, Appel
The National League has rather a pronounced divide between its better teams and its anticipated bottom-dwellers, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark writes, and that poses a significant problem. While commissioner Rob Manfred says that the league’s less talented clubs are in a routine phase of the natural winning/rebuilding cycle, some rival executives believe that at least some organizations are looking to strip down their MLB rosters, pursue top draft picks, and aim for a relatively distant competitive timeline. There are a host of interesting quotes, particularly from Manfred, who says that outright tanking efforts would be “self-correcting” in that, “if too many teams try to follow this strategy, the effectiveness of that strategy will be naturally undermined.” The piece is well worth a read.
Here’s the latest out of the N.L.:
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has been in touch with veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to tell him not to pay any heed to trade rumors, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. While that’s hardly any guarantee, multiple rival GMs say they have received the impression that Colorado will not move its most recognizable player this winter, Jon Heyman tweets. Nevertheless, the recent signing of Gerardo Parra still seemingly leaves the club with good cause to move an outfielder. If it isn’t CarGo, of course, then the two obvious candidates would be Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson.
- Chances are “slim” that the Cubs will make another major addition before the season, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said today, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions of ways Chicago could look to add yet more impact after an already-busy offseason, but it certainly doesn’t appear as if the club really needs to do anything to its roster at this point.
- The Reds are still working on various trade scenarios, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via TwitLonger). Jay Bruce seems the most plausible trade piece, Crasnick indicates, but his market is complicated by Colorado’s trio of possible left-handed bats for sale. And he arguably hasn’t performed to the standard of his rather expensive contract in recent years. “Once you start down this road, it is important to continue with the tough decisions and not pull up in the middle of the project,” said GM Dick Williams. “That being said, we cannot force deals so I cannot guarantee we will do more.’’
- New Phillies hurler Mark Appel has a lot to prove, Crasnick writes. But the 24-year-old says he is determined and able to live up to his former billing as a top-end pitching prospect.
Phillies Avoid Arbitration With Jeremy Hellickson
The Phillies and right-hander Jeremy Hellickson have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal that will pay the offseason trade acquisition an even $7MM in 2016, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client will top his $6.6MM projection (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) by about six percent in his final trip through the arbitration process. Hellickson, 29 in April, is eligible for free agency next winter.
The D-backs acquired Hellickson in a trade with the Rays last offseason with the hope that he could return to the levels that saw him win the AL Rookie of the Year Award back in 2011 at the age of 24. However, while Hellickson remained healthier than he was in 2014, his overall results weren’t what the D-backs had envisioned. The right-hander posted a 4.62 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate in his lone season with Arizona.
Philadelphia will, like the D-backs last offseason, take on Hellickson hoping that he can return to form but knowing that even if that scenario doesn’t play out, he’ll eat some innings for a young and inexperienced staff that could use some veteran depth. The price tag on Hellickson, financially speaking, might be a bit steeper than simply signing a veteran innings eater on the free-agent market — Philadelphia paid Aaron Harang $5MM last season, for instance — but Hellickson comes with more upside than many veteran innings eaters that might come with a lower cost. If he performs well this year, Hellickson could conceivably emerge as a July trade chip and net a useful piece for the Phillies’ future.
With Hellickson’s agreement reportedly in place, the Phillies have now avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. The Phillies came to terms with Jeanmar Gomez and Freddy Galvis over the past two days as well, while Peter Bourjos settled his case last month.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ‘pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
- Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
- Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Galvis, Hatcher, Alonso, Wilson, Wilhelmsen
We’ll track the day’s lower-priced arbitration agreements right here. For now, there’s only one addition to the list:
- The Phillies and infielder Freddy Galvis have settled on a $2MM salary for the 2016 season in order to avoid arbitration, reports Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Galvis comes in $100K north of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $1.9MM. The 26-year-old played in a career-high 151 games this past season and batted .263/.302/.343 with seven homers and 10 steals in 603 plate appearances. He should see the bulk of time at shortstop in Philadelphia this season, although top prospect J.P. Crawford is projected to be the Phillies’ long-term option there.
- Heyman also tweets that the Dodgers have avoided arbitration with right-hander Chris Hatcher. The catcher-turned-reliever will take home a $1.065MM salary, per Heyman, clearing Swartz’s projection of $900K. That makes for a nice birthday present for Hatcher, who turned 31 yesterday and will look to build on a solid season in which he posted a 3.69 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 in 39 innings last season.
Earlier Updates
- The Athletics have agreed to a $2.65MM contract with first baseman Yonder Alonso, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Alsonso, 28, projected for a $2.5MM salary in his second year of eligibility. Oakland acquired him from the Padres earlier in the winter after he put up a .282/.361/.381 slash in 402 plate appearances last year.
- Justin Wilson and the Tigers have reached a $1.525MM deal for 2016, according to Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The 28-year-old was arb-eligible for the first time this winter after putting up a 3.03 ERA in his first 199 1/3 MLB frames. He receives a nice bump up over the $1.3MM salary that had been projected by MLBTR.
- The Rangers have reached agreement on a $3.1MM salary with recently-acquired reliever Tom Wilhelmsen, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. MLBTR had projected the righty to earn an even $3MM, so he’ll receive a modest increase on that valuation. Texas acquired Wilhelmsen from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. He has worked to a 2.97 ERA, with 8.5 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9, over 312 1/3 career frames in Seattle.
Outfield Market Notes: Cespedes, CarGo, Cards, Upton
The prolonged availability of Yoenis Cespedes on the free agent market has apparently drawn some bargain hunters. Jon Heyman reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets and Braves both have had at least some level of interest in an communication with the All-Star outfielder. New York is said to be willing to put together a two or three-year deal, per Heyman, while it’s not clear what Atlanta might be inclined to offer. The White Sox have previously been said to have interest that stops at three years. As I noted in the linked post, a big AAV and an early opt-out could be an interesting scenario, though Cespedes is still likely to exhaust all possibilities of a deal more commensurate with his big-time earning power after an MVP-caliber season.
Here are some more notes on an outfield market that has shown increased movement in recent weeks:
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Braves would have to move an outfielder in order to sign Cespedes now that Hector Olivera is in the outfield. Moving Ender Inciarte, in theory, could make room for Cespedes as a stopgap of sorts in center field, he further tweets, though Atlanta would need to trade yet another outfielder once Mallex Smith is ready for a look in center (thereby shifting Cespedes to a corner spot).
- Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the Braves do indeed have some interest, though they’re only interested in a short-term pact as well. Bowman notes that even if Cespedes were to get to the point where he considered accepting a one- or two-year deal — an unlikely scenario — Atlanta would need to clear payroll in order to facilitate the acquisition. Asked by one of his Twitter followers about the odds of Atlanta striking a deal with Cespedes, Bowman likened them to the chances of winning the Powerball (Twitter link). While Bowman is clearly having some fun with that tweet, the fact that he is more or less dismissive of the entire notion is telling.
- Rosenthal also reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets have received no indication from Cespedes’ agents that he’s willing to take a short-term deal. Cespedes remains committed to securing a longer-term deal — a concept to which the Mets have reportedly been averse all offseason long.
- Several industry sources tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they still expect Cespedes to take down a big contract. He traces the hold-up at the top of the outfield market to the standoff between Chris Davis and the Orioles.
- Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has drawn interest from the Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox, and Angels at times this winter, Heyman notes (Twitter links). (The team has also been contacted by the Nationals and Giants, both of which have since added outfielders.) We’ve heard recently, though, that Los Angeles probably can’t take on that kind of salary and has not spoken recently with Colorado. And Heyman says that the “sticking point” with the O’s has been that team’s unwillingness to part with young righty (and Colorado native) Kevin Gausman.
- FOX Sports has a series of posts today regarding outfielders. Ken Rosenthal and Dave Cameron take opposing sides on the question whether the Cardinals ought to focus on adding an outfield upgrade. Rosenthal explains that the Phillies probably won’t make a value play for Justin Upton, in large part because their second-round pick is a valuable part of a talent-acquisition strategy. And Jon Morosi says that this year’s winter’s market for outfielders has gone in unexpected directions.