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Braves, Phillies Announce NLDS Rosters; Kyle Wright Placed On 60-Day Injured List

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With Game 1 just hours away, the Phillies and Braves announced the rosters for the NL Division Series.  The announcements come with some notable transactions, as Atlanta has placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain.  In other moves, Max Fried was activated from the 15-day injured list as expected, and rookie Daysbel Hernandez was also activated from the 60-day IL and included on the NLDS roster.

The news brings a disappointing season to an end for Wright, as shoulder problems limited him to only 31 innings and  6.97 ERA.  After returning from the 60-day IL in September, Wright was hit hard in two starts before being moved into a multi-inning relief role, which would likely have been his role on a playoff roster.  With Charlie Morton’s finger injury keeping him off the NLDS roster, the speculated plan was for the Braves to use Bryce Elder as the Game 3 starter and perhaps Wright as either a piggyback starter or more of a true reliever.  AJ Smith-Shawver made the NLDS roster and now looks to likely step into that secondary starter role for Game 3.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported some of the Braves’ roster plans yesterday, including the somewhat surprising inclusion of Hernandez.  The righty made his Major League debut on July 23, and threw 3 2/3 innings over four appearances before being sidelined due to forearm inflammation.  Eventually moved to the 60-day injured list in September, Hernandez could now make his return in the postseason spotlight.

An international signing out of Cuba in 2017, Hernandez just turned 27 last month, and he has a history of missing bats in the minor leagues.  With a 3.03 ERA over 157 2/3 innings in Atlanta’s farm system, Hernandez has a very impressive 30.35% strikeout rate, and his high-90s fastball could be an intriguing secret weapon for the Braves in the playoffs.  However, it is possible the Phillies might benefit if Hernandez can’t harness his pitches, as he has a 12.44% walk rate during his minor league career.

Philadelphia will return 25 of the players from the group who defeated the Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series.  The one change is Michael Lorenzen, as the Phillies will add an extra pitcher and remove a position player in Weston Wilson.  Lorenzen posted a 5.51 ERA over 47 1/3 innings and 11 appearances after being acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadlne, and the last four of those outings came out of the bullpen due to Lorenzen’s struggles.  Barring an emergency, Lorenzen will continue to work as a reliever during the NLDS.

There are three off-days during the series, so the unusual scheduling allows for extra rest for the top-choice starters.  Ranger Suarez and Spencer Strider are today’s scheduled starter, Fried and Zack Wheeler are slated to face off in Monday’s Game 2, and Aaron Nola takes the hill for Philadelphia in Game 3 against a Braves starter TBD (likely Elder).  Suarez and Strider figure to return in a potential Game 4, and then a Wheeler/Fried rematch awaits in a possible Game 5.

The full rosters…

Phillies

Braves

MLBTR Poll: Division Series Winners

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All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.

Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.

Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.

(poll link)

 

Twins vs. Astros

The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.

Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.

The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.

(poll link)

 

Phillies vs. Braves

Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.

The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.

Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.

(poll link)

 

D-Backs vs. Dodgers

The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.

With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.

The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.

(poll link)

 

Castellanos Looks Back At Near-Contract With Marlins

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Miami native Nick Castellanos was heavily linked to the Marlins when he was a free agent during the 2021-22 offseason, and Castellanos told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb earlier this week that he very nearly agreed to join the team before the lockout halted winter business in early December 2021.  “If I wasn’t advised to be patient and wait until after the lockout to sign, I would have been over there,” Castellanos said.  Instead, the Marlins’ plans changed during the freeze, with some reports tying Derek Jeter’s departure as club CEO to ownership’s decision to not expand the payroll quite so much once the lockout was settled.  That meant Castellanos was now without his top suitor, until he signed with the Phillies for a five-year, $100MM deal.

Castellanos admitted that it took a while to get over the disappointment of not playing in his hometown, a “dream” scenario that would’ve allowed Castellanos to be near his son Liam at all times, and play for one of his baseball heroes in Jeter.  This feeling may have contributed to Castellanos’ lackluster numbers for much of the 2022 season, but the Phillies’ run to the World Series reinvigorated him and the outfielder delivered a more productive season this year.  “I can never sit and say I am unfortunate because I’m blessed and I get to play here,” he said.  “I get to play for a great organization.  I get to play with one of the most intense fan bases in the sports world.  I have so much gratitude for all of that.”

Latest On Rhys Hoskins

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  • Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who has been out all season due to a torn ACL, threw out the first pitch prior to the club’s win over the Marlins in Game 1 of the Wild Card series this evening. That might not be his only part in Philadelphia’s postseason run if the club makes it back to the World Series, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki noted today that Hoskins is set to head to the club’s stay-ready camp in Clearwater, Florida to begin facing pitchers in live batting practice. The news represents a major step in Hoskins’ recovery and leaves the door open for Hoskins to return at the end of the club’s postseason run if they can make it that far, much like how teammate Kyle Schwarber made it back from a torn ACL of his own to DH for the Cubs during the 2016 World Series.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Latest On Trea Turner

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The Phillies have already clinched the top NL Wild Card spot with a 89-72 record heading into the final day of the regular season, and have turned their attention to preparing for the club’s playoff run.

Fans in Philadelphia suffered a scare regarding the availability of shortstop Trea Turner yesterday when he exited the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader after being hit in the elbow by a pitch. Fortunately, Turner only suffered a bruise from the incident, as noted by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As relayed by Coffey, manager Rob Thomson told reporters yesterday that while Turner is unlikely to play in today’s regular season finale, he’s expected to be ready to go for the start of the Wild Card series on Tuesday. After a rough start to his $300MM contract with the Phillies in the first few months of the season, Turner has caught fire at the plate in recent weeks, slashing .339/.391/.677 over his last 47 games. That hot stretch has raised his overall slash line this season to .266/.320/.459, good for an above-average 108 wRC+.

Meanwhile, as the Phillies look for a platoon partner for outfielder Brandon Marsh headed into the playoffs, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggests that the club could turn to 29-year-old rookie Weston Wilson. Wilson has appeared in just five games with the Phillies this year, but has hit well in limited playing time, with two hits (including a home run) and six walks in 12 trips to the plate. Wilson, who slashed .325/.416/.609 in 178 trips to the plate against lefties at the Triple-A level this year, could usurp Cristian Pache as the club’s starter in left field against left-handers thanks to Pache’s brutal .091/.231/.152 slash line in 15 games this September.

Phillies Select Michael Plassmeyer

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The Phillies announced this evening that the club had selected the contract of left-hander Michael Plassmeyer. In corresponding moves, the club recalled right-hander Erich Uelmen before placing him on the 60-day IL with a right flexor strain and optioned right-hander Luis Ortiz.

Plassmeyer, 25, made his MLB debut with the Phillies last year. The southpaw posted a 3.68 ERA and 3.38 FIP over two long relief appearances, racking up seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of work. He’s been pitching at the minor league level for Philadelphia since then, and sports a 4.64 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work across 19 appearances (17 starts) at the High-A and Triple-A levels. Plassmeyer figures to give the Phillies volume out of the bullpen for the second game of today’s doubleheader, should it be necessary.

To make room for Plassmeyer on the 40-man roster, the club recalled Uelmen to Triple-A before immediately placing him on the 60-day IL. Uelmen appeared in just one inning for the Phillies previously this season, allowing four runs on three hits and two walks while striking out just one. The righty posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work across three levels of the minor leagues this season, and made just three appearances June 4 due to injuries.

Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Ortiz makes room for Plassmeyer on the active roster. Ortiz was called up just earlier today for the first half of the doubleheader, during which he struck out two over a scoreless inning of work. Entering today, Ortiz owned a 3.50 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 18 innings of work with the Phillies since being claimed off waivers from the Giants this past offseason.

Phillies Place Dylan Covey On 15-Day Injured List

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The Phillies announced four roster moves today, including the news that right-hander Dylan Covey was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 28) due to lower back pain.  Infielder Rodolfo Castro was also optioned to the club’s Spring Training complex now that the minor league season is over, while right-hander Luis Ortiz and utilityman Weston Wilson were called up from Triple-A to fill the two open spots on the active roster.

Covey is now ineligible to return until at least October 12, so he wouldn’t be available for a playoff roster unless the Phillies reached the NLCS.  Even in that best-case scenario, the Phillies might not prefer to activate a pitcher coming off an extended layoff, and Covey might have been something of a borderline candidate to make the postseason roster even if healthy.

Regardless of the unfortunate ending, 2023 has still been Covey’s most successful season in the big leagues.  He posted a 6.57 ERA over 264 1/3 innings with the White Sox and Red Sox from 2017-20 before heading to the Chinese Professional Baseball League for two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys.  Covey pitched well enough to attract the attention of North America, and he inked a minor league deal with the Dodgers that resulted in a single MLB game in Dodger Blue.

Covey was designated for assignment after that lone game in May but quickly claimed off waivers by the Phillies.  Powered by a 54.3% grounder rate and a lot of soft contact, Covey has a 3.69 ERA over 39 innings with Philadelphia, posting some quality bottom-line results despite a very modest 15.7% strikeout rate.  Even his ERA is somewhat skewed by Covey’s lone start with the Phillies, as he lasted just two-thirds of an inning while allowing five earned runs.  In 42 1/3 other innings as a reliever in 2023, Covey’s ERA is 2.76.

NL Injury Notes: Hoskins, Davis, Mitchell, Candelario, Alzolay

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson isn’t ruling out the possibility that Rhys Hoskins will play in the postseason. More specifically, the skipper told hosts on the WIP Morning Show that if Philadelphia makes it back to the World Series, Hoskins could be available to DH or pinch-hit.

The first baseman tore his ACL during spring training and has not played for the Phillies since last October. However, he’s taking batting practice and running the bases, and he appears to be progressing well. The possibility of his return remains a long shot – Philadelphia would have to make the World Series first, and even then, it’s no guarantee – but still, this is encouraging news for the club.

Hoskins has an .846 OPS and a 126 wRC+ in his career, both of which would rank second among qualified Phillies hitters this season. He was instrumental to the team’s postseason run last fall, clubbing six home runs and driving in 12 across 17 games.

In other National League injury news…

  • J.D. Davis exited early on Tuesday night after a rough slide into third base. The Giants later informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that the third baseman had suffered a shoulder strain, although the severity of the injury remains unclear. The 30-year-old has been San Francisco’s most durable player this season, leading the team in plate appearances and games played.
  • Brewers rookie Garrett Mitchell was spotted on the field ahead of Tuesday night’s contest with the Cardinals. The outfield prospect has been on the injured list since mid-April, but he is hoping to return for the playoffs. The 25-year-old told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that he could remain on the IL for the rest of the regular season but still make the postseason roster. He is awaiting one final medical appointment before he is fully cleared to return, and he seems optimistic about his chances to play some kind of role for the Brewers this October.
  • Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to provide an update on Jeimer Candelario. Chicago’s big addition at the trade deadline has been on the IL since September 11 with a lower back strain, but he could return as soon as this evening against the Braves. The Cubs could certainly use his switch-hitting bat in the lineup as they try to fend off their opponents in the Wild Card race over the final five days of the season. In other Cubs news, closer Adbert Alzolay is making progress in his attempt to return from a forearm strain. He is hoping to face live hitters in the next few days. 

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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