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Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Phillies Outright Drew Ellis

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Sept. 24: Ellis has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, as per the Phillies’ official transactions page.  There isn’t yet any word on whether or not he has accepted the assignment or elected free agency.

Sept. 22: The Phillies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Orion Kerkering, a move that was reported on earlier today. In corresponding moves, right-hander Yunior Marté was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley while infielder Drew Ellis was designated for assignment.

Ellis, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Phils in April and was added to the 40-man roster in June. He has since served as an optionable depth piece, playing 12 games in the majors. He drew walks in six of his 29 plate appearances, leading to a strong .217/.379/.478 batting line in that small sample. In 70 Triple-A games this year, he’s slashed .224/.336/.433 for a wRC+ of 92.

The Phils will now place Ellis on waivers in the coming days. He’s hit just .157/295/.269 in his major league career, in just 129 plate appearances. He’s had much stronger results in Triple-A, having hit .247/.364/.500 in 1,124 plate appearances at that level. He’s played each of the non-shortstop infield positions, meaning he could appeal to a club in search of some extra depth on the dirt. He wouldn’t be postseason eligible if claimed now but can be retained for six years beyond the current season. He’s in his final option year and will be out of options next season. In the event he clears waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Phillies To Promote Orion Kerkering

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The Phillies are going to promote right-hander Orion Kerkering, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Kerkering isn’t on the 40-man roster, so the club will need to make a corresponding move of some kind to open a spot for him.

Kerkering, 22, was a fifth-round selection of the Phils just last year. He got to make a brief professional debut after that draft, making one appearance in the Complex League and five in Single-A. He came into this year ranked as the #25 prospect in the system by Baseball America and #19 by FanGraphs. Both outlets highlighted his fastball and slider, with BA noting that Kerkering’s move to the bullpen in college could see him rise quickly, narrow his focus to those two strong offerings.

Here in 2023, he has torpedoed through four levels already, going through Single-A, High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and will now add the majors to that list. He has combined for 53 2/3 innings over those stops with a 1.51 earned run average, 38% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. He won’t be able to sustain the 92.3% strand rate he’s had so far this year but even his 2.36 FIP points to great results even with some regression.

The Phillies are currently sporting a record of 84-69. They’re nowhere close to Atlanta in the East but currently possess the top Wild Card spot in the National League, three games up on the second-place Diamondbacks and five up on the Cubs and Marlins. That makes them a virtual lock to return to the playoffs this year.

They will plug Kerkering into their bullpen mix and see how he fares against bit league hitters in the final games of the regular season schedule. If his results are anywhere near his performance in the minors, he could push for a spot on the postseason roster. Players that are in an organization but not on the 40-man can be eligible for the postseason as an injury substitute via a petition to the league, even if they are added after September 1.

Charlie Manuel Recovering From Stroke

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We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our best wishes to Charlie Manuel, who is recovering from a stroke.  The Phillies announced that Manuel suffered the stroke while undergoing a medical procedure today, though he was able to receive instant care (including the removal of a blood clot) since he was already at a hospital.  “The next 24 hours will be crucial to his recovery, and Charlie’s family asks that you keep him in your thoughts and prayers at this time,” said the Phillies’ release.

Manuel managed Philadelphia from 2005-13, leading the Phillies to a 780-636 record, five NL East titles, two NL pennants, and the 2008 World Series championship.  Manuel’s long baseball career included six seasons apiece in MLB and Japan as a player, and several decades as a coach and manager at the minor and Major League levels, including another stint as a manager with Cleveland from 2000-02.

Phillies Weighing Bullpen Role For Michael Lorenzen

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The Phillies could deploy Michael Lorenzen out of the bullpen down the stretch, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that the Phils had yet to make a final decision but suggested they were likely to move back to a five-man rotation after today’s off day.

Philadelphia’s front four is locked in. They’ll go with Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Zack Wheeler over their next few appearances. If they go back to a five-man staff, they’ll need to decide between Cristopher Sánchez or Lorenzen for next Tuesday’s start in Atlanta.

Sánchez has been the more effective for the Phils. The 26-year-old southpaw owns a 3.40 ERA over 87 1/3 innings on the season. After striking out 10 Braves hitters in 7 1/3 frames last night, he has a quality 23.6% strikeout percentage to go with a huge 56.4% grounder rate. He has demonstrated excellent control, cutting his walk rate below the 4% mark.

Lorenzen hasn’t found the same level of success overall in Philadelphia. He started his tenure brilliantly, rattling off eight innings of two-run ball during his team debut in Miami and no-hitting the Nationals at home in his second start. Things have spiraled in the few weeks since that historic outing. Lorenzen has allowed four-plus runs in each of his last five appearances, topping out at six innings. Since the no-hitter, he has a 7.96 ERA with a minuscule 11% strikeout rate.

The 31-year-old’s overall production is still solid. Including his strong first half with the Tigers, he owned a 3.23 ERA across 122 2/3 innings a month ago. Even after the rough few weeks, he’s allowing 4.06 earned runs per nine altogether. Yet he’s also in uncharted territory from a workload perspective, with his 148 2/3 frames easily topping his previous career high of 113 1/3 innings as a rookie back in 2015.

Lorenzen had worked almost exclusively out of relief for the Reds from his second season onward. Upon reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason, he prioritized a rotation spot and signed a one-year pact with the Angels. He logged 97 2/3 innings a season ago, with injuries capping him at 18 starts. That was still a heavier load than he’d shouldered during his time in the bullpen but fell shy of a typical starter’s capacity.

The righty hasn’t shown obvious signs of physical decline. His velocity this month is in line with his early-season level. The results have fallen off sharply, though, perhaps reflecting a more subtle dip in Lorenzen’s execution.

Gelb suggests the Phils have given some thought to deploying Sánchez and Lorenzen as a tandem duo in the fifth starter’s spot. That’d allow them to keep an eye on the workload for each, though it’s arguable they’d be better served acting more definitively. Both pitchers have handled themselves well when turning a lineup over, so there’s not a pressing need to mitigate either’s ’times through the order’ splits. They each have experience working as relievers, with Lorenzen particularly familiar with a high-leverage short relief role from his time in Cincinnati.

The Phils occupy the top Wild Card spot in the National League and are in strong position to secure a playoff spot. Both Sánchez and Lorenzen would likely play relief roles in October, at least in the opening three-game Wild Card series. They’ll conclude the regular season with 16 games in 17 days, starting tomorrow.

Lorenzen is headed back to free agency in the offseason. Even if he’s kicked to the bullpen for the last couple weeks, he’s in position for a much stronger pact than the $8.5MM guarantee he received from Detroit a year ago. He’s going into his age-32 campaign and could find three- or four-year offers this time around.

Pat Corrales Passes Away

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Former big league player, manager and coach Pat Corrales has passed away, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Corrales was 82 years old.

Born in Los Angeles in 1941, Patrick Corrales attended Fresno High School before signing with the Phillies as an amateur free agent in 1959. He worked his way up the minor league ladder and made his major league debut in 1964, though only got into two games that year. He would carve out a semi-regular role as a backup catcher in the seasons to come, bouncing to the Cardinals, Reds and Padres.

From 1964 to 1973, he got into 300 games and made 858 plate appearances. He had a batting average of .216 in that time, getting 166 hits, including 28 doubles, three triples and four home runs. He scored 63 runs, drove in 54 and stole one base. The 1970 Reds won the National League West and then defeated the Pirates in the NLCS to advance to the World Series, though they were then defeated by the Orioles. With the O’s up 3-1 in the series and 9-3 in the fifth game, Corrales was sent up to pinch hit for Hal McRae with two outs in the ninth. Corrales grounded out to finish the series and the season, the only postseason plate appearance of his career. (YouTube link via the Orioles.)

After his playing career ended, Corrales shifted into a managerial role, starring with the Rangers in the late ’70s before serving as skipper for Philadelphia and Cleveland. As a manager, he had a record of 572-634 over parts of nine different seasons. His last season as a manager was 1987, but he went on to spend many years as a bench coach, starting with the Yankees. He served in that role for Atlanta for nine years, including the club that won the 1995 World Series. He also served as a bench coach for the Nationals before being hired by the Dodgers as a special assistant to the general manager in 2012.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Phillies Sign Hector Perez To Minor League Contract

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The Phillies have signed right-hander Hector Perez to a minor league deal, as per MLB.com’s official transactions page.  Perez will report to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to begin his tenure with his new team.

The 27-year-old Perez is a veteran of two MLB seasons, albeit in cup of coffee form.  He debuted with one game and 1 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays in 2020, and then didn’t reach the majors again until this season, when he threw a third of an inning for the Rays in one appearance.  That Rays game took place just on August 16, and since then Perez was designated for assignment, outrighted off Tampa’s 40-man roster, and he chose free agency over accepting the assignment (he had that right due to a previous outright in his career).

A pro since 2015, Perez has been a member of five different organizations during his career, and he’ll now try to gain a bit of stability with Philadelphia.  From the Phillies’ perspective, Perez offers some bullpen depth at the minor league level.  The club’s next offday isn’t until September 7, so Perez might get another shot in the big leagues during this stretch if the Phils want to cycle a fresh arm into the mix.

Perez has a 3.78 ERA over 583 career innings in the minors, with a 4.81 ERA over 63 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level.  Working mostly as a reliever in recent years, Perez has a 26.7% strikeout rate and 14.35% walk rate during his time in the minor leagues.

Phillies Acquire Brewer Hicklen From Royals

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The Royals announced that outfielder Brewer Hicklen has been traded to the Phillies. The return on the deal wasn’t listed, though trades of this nature usually see cash considerations going the other way. Hicklen was eligible to be traded after the deadline because he wasn’t on a 40-man roster or major league injured list at any point this season.

[Related: How to Acquire Players After the Trade Deadline]

Hicklen, 27, will join a new organization for the first time in his career, as he was drafted by the Royals in 2017 and has been with them ever since. He has climbed to the upper levels of the minors and even got to make his major league debut in 2022, getting into six games as a COVID replacement player but striking out in all four of his plate appearances.

He has occasionally been considered one of the Royals’ top 30 prospects, with his best attribute being his speed. He’s racked up double-digit steals in each of his professional seasons, often getting into the 30-40 range. He also has notable power at the plate but has often paired home runs with big strikeout totals.

He spent most of last year at Triple-A, getting into 130 games there. He hit 28 homers and swiped 35 bags but was also punched out in 36.1% of his plate appearances. His .248/.348/.502 batting line still amounted to a wRC+ of 122, despite the strikeout concerns. Here in 2023, he’s been back in Triple-A, getting into 61 contests. He’s reduced his strikeout rate to 24.6% but with diminished production overall. His .233/.338/.451 line translates to a wRC+ of 93, though he’s added another 15 steals in that time.

Rosters are set to expand from 26 to 28 players in September, a time when many clubs like to add a speedy player to the bench for pinch running purposes, a role that Hicklen would certainly be a good candidate for. By acquiring him prior to September 1, he will also be eligible to join the Phils in the postseason. He will qualify for minor league free agency at season’s end if not added to the 40-man roster. For now, he’ll add some minor league depth behind the club’s regular outfield of Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Johan Rojas and Jake Cave.

Phillies Notes: Marsh, Pache, Alvarado

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Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh was activated from the 10-day injured list earlier today, prior to the club’s appearance against Washington in tonight’s Little League Classic. Marsh’s return to the lineup is excellent news for Philadelphia, as the 25-year-old has slashed an excellent .281/.367/.460 (122 wRC+) in 361 trips to the plate while playing strong defense in center field this season. While Marsh was on the shelf, he was filled in for in center field admirably by youngster Johan Rojas, who has slashed a roughly league average .286/.337/.390 in 86 plate appearances while playing excellent defense in center.

With Marsh back on the roster, he figures to return to the everyday role he occupied prior to his injury. That leaves Rojas set to spend more time on the Phillies’ bench going forward, though manager Rob Thomson has indicated previously that using both Marsh and Rojas in the outfield could be on the table as a way to get both players’ bats into the lineup while also greatly improving the club’s overall outfield defense. Such an arrangement would likely come at the expense of at-bats for Jake Cave, but Cave hasn’t made things easy for Thomson himself, posting a superb .333/.359/.639 slash line in August while splitting time between the outfield and first base.

Further complicating the club’s logjam is the eventual return of Cristian Pache, who boasts elite outfield defense and showed flashes of the offensive potential that once made him a top prospect in 53 trips to the plate for the Phillies prior to going on the injured list last month. While rostering all three of Pache, Cave, and Rojas simultaneously would be all but impossible for the Phillies to manage, that eventuality has seemingly been put off, at least for the time being. As noted by the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey, Thomson told reporters that Pache is dealing with hip tightness, and the 24-year-old former top prospect’s timetable for return is currently unclear.

While Pache appears to be out of commission for the foreseeable future, the club offered better news on the pitching side of things, as MLB.com notes that left-hander Jose Alvarado is expected to rejoin the club tomorrow. Alvarado has been on the injured list since early July with left elbow inflammation, his second IL stint this season for the ailment. Despite the nagging injury, Alvarado has been nothing short of dominant when healthy enough to take the mound, with a 1.38 ERA, 2.30 FIP, and a 36.4% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work this season. In returning, Alvarado seems poised to join the late-inning mix for the Phillies ahead of closer Craig Kimbrel.

Phillies Place Ranger Suárez On IL With Hamstring Strain

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1:30pm: Suárez tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he has a Grade 1 strain and hopes to return in around 15 days.

12:20pm: The Phillies announced today that left-hander Ranger Suárez has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 16, with a right hamstring strain. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti was recalled in a corresponding move.

Suárez, 27, hits the injured list for the second time this year. He dealt with some forearm tightness in March and began the year on the IL, with the club describing that injury as an elbow strain. Despite that ominous-sounding diagnosis, he was able to return in mid-May and has since made 17 starts. He has a 3.88 earned run average in 97 1/3 innings, along with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate.

It’s unclear how long Suárez will be out of action this time, but the Phillies will have to proceed without him for at least a couple of turns through the rotation. Thankfully, they have been running a six-man rotation since acquiring Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and should be able to get by without worrying about replacing Suárez.

Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported a week ago that Cristopher Sánchez was likely to just get one more start before bumped either to the bullpen or the minors. He’s having a solid season with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts, but the Phils just have a lot of established starters in Suárez, Lorenzen, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker. But with Suárez set to sit things out for a while, Sánchez can stick around.

That’s fine for the time being but will leave the club a bit thin on depth until Suárez can return. Prospect Andrew Painter was supposed to be in the mix this year but required Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until late 2024 at the earliest. Bailey Falter was dealt to the Pirates for Rodolfo Castro, subtracting another depth starter. Griff McGarry is one of the club’s top pitching prospects but he was recently put on the development list at Triple-A after some struggles. His last start saw him face just seven batters, walking six and hitting another, all of them eventually coming around to score and leaving him with a shocking 50.62 ERA in two Triple-A outings this year. Nick Nelson is probably the next man up since he’s on the 40-man and has a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts this year, but his major league work has resulted in a career ERA of 5.38.

The Phils are in good shape overall, currently sporting a record of 66-56 and in possession of the top Wild Card slot in the National League. Even without Suárez, they have a strong group of five starters that can hopefully keep them afloat for the six remaining weeks of the season. Another rotation injury would start to make things feel a bit shaky but hopefully Suárez can return before that becomes a reality.

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