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Latest On Bryce Harper

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During tonight’s Phillies/Rangers matchup on ESPN, Bryce Harper and Phillies manager Rob Thomson shared some positive updates about Harper’s recovery from Tommy John surgery in November.  (Hat tip to Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia.)  Thomson said Harper is likely to hit on the field at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, prior to the Phils’ home opener against the Reds.  Harper has already been doing his usual slate of batting cage work for roughly 10 days.

No update was given on Harper’s timeline, as the former MVP said he is “just trying to get my rehab going as best as possible,” and “just trying to take it each day, make sure I hit every checkpoint.”

“[I’ve] still got a minute to go.  Just trying to be smart about it, understanding my good days are going to be good and some days I’ll just be sore and it’ll be a little tougher.  But I feel good right now, just got to keep that going and keep doing the same stuff.”

Once Harper does his on-field work, Thomson laid out the gameplan of live batting practice and then progressing to minor league rehab games.  While there’s certainly a lot to like about Harper’s progress, these next steps won’t be completed quickly, particularly since Harper both has to recover physically and fully ramp up for the season after missing all of Spring Training.  The Phillies initially suggested that Harper would be back by roughly the All-Star break in a DH capacity, and he might return to right field later in the season if all was well with his throwing arm.

However, tonight’s update might be the latest hint that Harper could be activated from the injured list before that July target — for instance, the Phils only placed him on the 10-day version of the IL prior to the season, not the 60-day IL that would normally come with a longer-term injury.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did suggest that a 60-day placement (which would be backdated to Harper’s initial placement on the 10-day IL on March 30) might still occur if Philadelphia needs to create a 40-man roster spot, but it would seem like the Phillies didn’t want to entirely rule out Harper’s return within the first 60 days of the regular season.

Phillies Sign Jeff Hoffman To Minor League Contract

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Right-hander Jeff Hoffman has signed a minor league contract with the Phillies, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Phillies have added him to their Triple-A roster. According to Heyman, Hoffman will make $1.3MM in the majors and has opt-outs available to him on May 1 and July 1.

Hoffman, the 9th overall pick of the 2014 draft, began his career as a member of the Blue Jays before being traded to the Rockies as part of the Troy Tulowitzki trade. He made his major league debut with the Rockies in 2016, but struggled to a 4.88 ERA and 6.27 FIP in 31 1/3 innings. Though he continued to see playing time in a swing role over the next four seasons, Hoffman never found his footing in Colorado, ending his time with the Rockies with a 5.68 ERA and 5.34 FIP in 230 2/3 innings. The right-hander was then traded to the Reds ahead of the 2021 season in exchange for reliever Robert Stephenson.

In Cincinnati, Hoffman’s career began to turn around. His well below average 18.8% strikeout rate with Colorado climbed to 23.3% with the Reds, though his walk rate also rose to a worrisome 12.8%. Still, in 117 2/3 innings of work with the Reds from 2021-2022, Hoffman posted a 4.28 ERA and 4.86 FIP, good for a 108 ERA+. His best performance came in last season, when the Reds began to use him almost exclusively as a reliever. In 2022, Hoffman posted the first sub-4.00 ERA of his career, with his 3.83 figure standing as 17% better than league average by ERA+.

Hoffman signed with the Twins earlier this offseason, though the club later granted him his release just before Opening Day when it became clear he would not make the club’s roster to start the season. That led Hoffman to Philadelphia, where he figures to serve as depth for the starting rotation with Ranger Suarez, Andrew Painter, Nick Nelson, and Cristopher Sanchez all opening the season on the injured list. With Matt Strahm having stepped into the rotation from the bullpen to fill the vacancy left by Suarez, Hoffman or left-hander Michael Plassmeyer figures to be the next man up should the Phillies suffer another rotation injury.

Phillies Had Interest In Minors Deal With Dallas Keuchel

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  • There hasn’t been any public buzz about Dallas Keuchel’s market since the former AL Cy Young Award winner was released by the Rangers back in September, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Phillies had some interest in signing Keuchel to a minor league deal, though no official offer came.  Keuchel has struggled to a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 innings with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rangers since the start of the 2021 season, so it would be something of a low-risk flier for the Phillies or any other team to bring Keuchel aboard on a minors contract.  While Keuchel might not be the choice, it certainly tracks that Philadelphia would be looking for some rotation depth, since Ranger Suarez, Nick Nelson, Cristopher Sanchez, and Andrew Painter are all battling injuries to begin the season.

Phillies Place Rafael Marchan On 60-Day Injured List

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The Phillies have placed catcher Rafael Marchán on the 60-day injured list due to a fractured right hamate bone, the club announced. The move clears a 40-man roster spot for Rule 5 selection Noah Song, who was reinstated from military leave. Song won’t go onto the active roster, as he’s being placed on the 15-day IL due to a lower back strain.

Marchán missed most of Spring Training with the wrist issue. The Phils had previously called it a contusion, but today’s revelation of a fracture obviously paints a dimmer picture. He’s now officially out until at least May without much further clarity on his recovery timeline. Marchán played in 23 MLB games between 2020-21 and was the third catcher on the roster behind J.T. Realmuto and Garrett Stubbs. He’s coming off a .233/.316/.358 showing with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Philadelphia selected Song away from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft. Regarded as a potential first-round talent a few years ago, the righty fell to the fourth because of club concerns about his military commitments. Those have prevented him throwing a single pitch in full season ball but the Phils still rolled the dice to add him to camp. They’ll have to keep him on the active roster or MLB injured list if they don’t want to offer him back to Boston. For now, the back soreness buys Philadelphia some time to gauge his progress before facing that call.

Athletics Trade Cristian Pache To Phillies

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The Athletics have traded outfielder Cristian Pache to the Phillies in exchange for minor league right-hander Billy Sullivan, per announcements from both teams. The Phillies opened a spot on the 40-man roster by placing first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 60-day injured list.

Once one of the sport’s top-ranked overall prospects, the now 24-year-old Pache is an elite defender whose bat has yet to develop at the game’s top levels. He’s also out of minor league options and has been leapfrogged on Oakland’s depth chart by offseason trade acquisition Esteury Ruiz, which led manager Mark Kotsay to announce earlier in the week that Pache wouldn’t make the roster and that the front office was exploring potential trades.

They’ve found a match to their liking in Philadelphia, who’ll presumably use Pache as a reserve outfielder and perhaps a righty-swinging complement to left-handed-hitting center fielder Brandon Marsh. Pache is a particularly logical fit for the Phils, given that he can provide a late-game defensive upgrade over either Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos (either by playing a corner himself or by stepping into center and pushing Marsh to a corner).

Pache has always been rated as an excellent defender going back to his early prospect days with Atlanta and that’s held true during his time in the majors as well. He’s already earned +9 Outs Above Average and +4 Defensive Runs Saved in 824 2/3 innings, though Ultimate Zone Rating does have him slightly below average. The major issue has been on offense, where he has struggled mightily. In 332 career plate appearances thus far, he’s hit just .156/.205/.234 for a wRC+ of 26, indicating he’s been 74% worse than the league average hitter. If the Phillies do plan on platooning him with Marsh, that might be the best use of abilities. He’s produced a passable .214/.267/.337 line against lefties for a wRC+ of 73, compared to a dismal .129/.176/.186 showing against righties, wRC+ of 4. These are fairly small sample sizes but there’s perhaps some glimmer of hope there.

For the A’s, they originally acquired Pache from Atlanta just over a year ago as part of the Matt Olson trade. They still have Shea Langeliers, Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes from that deal, but they surely hoped to get more from Pache in 2022 than they eventually did. He struggled enough that they had to send him to the minors for a few months, exhausting his final option year. When they acquired Ruiz and squeezed Pache out of regular action, they decided to pivot and move on.

In exchange for Pache, the A’s will get Sullivan, a right-handed pitcher who turns 24 next month. He’s spent the past two years getting work as a reliever, spending all of last year at Double-A. He tossed 51 innings over 44 appearances at that level with a 4.59 ERA. His 15% walk rate is very concerning, but he also struck out 32.1% of batters faced and got ground balls at a solid 45.5% clip. He’ll head over to a new organization that will undoubtedly be looking to improve that control in order to get those earned runs down.

Transferring Hoskins to the 60-day IL was an inevitable formality after he recently tore his ACL and will require surgery. That will almost certainly result in him missing the entire 2023 season.

Rockies Trade T.J. Zeuch To Phillies

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The Rockies have traded T.J. Zeuch to the Phillies, according to the right-hander’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was not on Colorado’s 40-man roster, so he’ll add some non-roster depth to the upper minors with Philadelphia.

Zeuch signed a minor league deal with Colorado over the offseason. The 6’7″ hurler pitched four times this spring, allowing eight runs in as many innings with seven strikeouts and five walks. Even with the Rox having a decent amount of uncertainty at the back end of the rotation, that predictably wasn’t enough to land him a roster spot. Colorado trades away a depth starter for the second time today after sending righty Tony Locey to Tampa Bay this morning.

The Phillies have been hit with a number of pitching injuries over the past few weeks. Ranger Suárez has been bothered by elbow soreness this spring and might start the year on the injured list. Top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who entered camp battling for the fifth starter job, went down with a UCL sprain. Depth arms Cristopher Sánchez and Nick Nelson have battled injuries of their own. That pushes expected reliever Matt Strahm into the season-opening rotation and has a trickle-down effect on the minor league depth.

Zeuch will open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. A former first-round draftee of the Blue Jays, he’s pitched in parts of four big league campaigns. The Pitt product has a 6.49 ERA across 59 2/3 major league innings, posting a quality grounder rate but dismal strikeout and walk numbers. He has a 4.71 ERA over 216 innings at the Triple-A level.

Matt Strahm To Open Season In Rotation

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With Ranger Suarez unlikely to be ready for the first turn through the rotation this season, Phillies manager Rob Thomson announced to reporters, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that left-hander Matt Strahm would start the fifth game of the season for Philadelphia, joining Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Bailey Falter in the rotation while Suarez is on the shelf.

Strahm signed with the Phillies as a reliever this offseason but has 25 career starts in the big leagues under his belt as well. That being said, his 5.08 career ERA in 108 innings of work as a starter pales in comparison to his 3.11 ERA in 196 2/3 relief innings. That said, Strahm nonetheless represents a serviceable option to fill in for Suarez in the short-term, particularly seeing as Thomson notes he will likely be limited to between 65 and 70 pitches in his first start, as he is not fully stretched out yet. That low pitch count could help him avoid facing batters for a third time, a challenge he has only faced in 75 plate appearances in his career to this point.

Latest On Ranger Suarez

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  • Ranger Suarez played catch on Friday and Saturday, telling Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer that his left arm still had some tightness but no pain.  In general, Suarez felt “nothing too bad” and his forearm was doing “better.”  Despite this fairly positive update, it still seems unlikely that Suarez will be able to avoid an IL trip given how the Phillies will probably be cautious with a case of elbow inflammation.  The left-hander was projected to be either the third or fourth starter in Philadelphia’s rotation this season, but with his likely absence for part of April, Bailey Falter will step into that vacancy in the starting five.  Matt Strahm or Michael Plassmeyer could take the fifth starter job, as top prospect Andrew Painter, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nick Nelson are also battling injuries.

Phillies, Aaron Nola End Extension Negotiations Until After The Season

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Last month, the Phillies and Aaron Nola’s representatives were reportedly exchanging figures about a possible long-term contract extension, creating some feeling that a new deal might be in the works.  However, it doesn’t look like the two sides will reach agreement, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (Twitter links) that the two sides have ended talks.

“We think the world of him, quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable,” Dombrowski said.  “We’re very open minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season.  We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”

Joe Longo, Nola’s agent, also made a statement, telling Coffey that “we had good communication with the Phillies.  We just couldn’t agree at this time.  We’ll pick up the conversation again at the end of the season.”

Like most players, Nola indicated that he didn’t want negotiations to stretch beyond Opening Day, as he wanted to entirely focus on baseball once the season was underway.  With that unofficial deadline still five days away, it’s possible that either Nola’s camp or the Phillies could restart contract talks with one phone call, yet the public declarations by both Dombrowski and Longo would seemingly indicate that the matter has been put on hold.

Nola signed a four-year, $45MM extension with Philadelphia in February 2019, and that deal became a five-year, $56.75MM pact last November when the Phillies exercised their $16MM club option on Nola for the 2023 season.  There was no doubt that the option would be picked up, given how well Nola has pitched over his eight seasons for the reigning NL champions.  The 2022 campaign saw Nola post a career-best 6.3 fWAR over 205 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA and a range of excellent secondary metrics.

Between Nola’s performance, durability, and age (he doesn’t turn 30 until June), he will be one of the top names in the 2023-24 free agent class, let alone one of the top pitchers.  Shohei Ohtani is on his own level given his unique two-way status, but among regular pitchers, only Julio Urias might rival Nola for the top contract given to a hurler next winter.

While the Phillies aren’t shy about giving out big contracts, they would’ve had to pay handsomely in an extension in order to retain Nola so close to his first trip to the open market.  The club still retains exclusive negotiating rights with Nola until free agency officially opens (five days after the end of the World Series), yet it isn’t very common to see an extension struck with a top-tier player within that small window between the end of the season and the opening of the free agent window, and the Phillies would likely have to pay even more of a premium to extend Nola at that even later date.

That said, a reunion between the two sides shouldn’t be ruled out, even if the Phillies do end up bidding against other suitors.  The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto when the catcher entered the open market during the 2020-21 offseason, and spending in free agency hasn’t been an issue in general given how Philadelphia has landed the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos to big multi-year deals.  The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and are projected to exceed the second tier ($253MM+) of tax penalties in 2023.

With Walker just signed to bolster the rotation this winter, Philadelphia has Nola under control through 2023, Wheeler through 2024, Ranger Suarez through 2025 via arbitration, and Walker through 2026.  Between this staggered list, Suarez’s relatively inexpensive price tag as an arb-eligible player, and the team’s hopes that younger arms like Bailey Falter, Andrew Painter, and Mick Abel can provide bargain production in the near future, it stands to reason that the Phillies might pursue re-signing Nola as a hedge against Wheeler’s possible departure following the 2024 campaign.  Or, it is possible that by season’s end, the Phillies are confident enough in their young pitching depth to let Nola leave, and recoup a draft pick as compensation (though the placement of that pick will fall due to the Phils’ status as luxury tax payors).

Dombrowski: Darick Hall Favorite For Majority Of First Base Reps

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The Phillies were dealt a huge blow yesterday when Rhys Hoskins went down with an ACL tear that’ll require surgery. They’ll now have to patch things together at first base unexpectedly.

Darick Hall appears the next man up. The left-handed hitter got into his first 42 MLB games last season. He connected on nine longballs and slugged .522 in 142 plate appearances. That’s a promising start but a meager 3.5% walk rate and elevated 31% strikeout percentage contributed to a .282 on-base mark. Hall had hit .254/.330/.528 with 28 homers, a 9.5% walk percentage and a 22.6% strikeout rate in 101 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer today that Hall looks like the favorite to take the bulk of the first base reps. That could come in a platoon capacity, as the 27-year-old had dramatic splits last year. Between the majors and Lehigh Valley, Hall mashed at a .280/.344/.601 clip over 436 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He limped to a .175/.242/.314 line over 149 trips to the dish against lefties — all but 12 of those coming against Triple-A arms.

“We have not made that decision yet,” Dombrowski said of a possible platoon. “I know he’ll get the majority of playing time, but of course the majority of playing time we’ll face righties. But I don’t know what we’re going to do in that regard. We haven’t discussed that part of it yet.”

Philadelphia could slide the righty-swinging Alec Bohm over to first base on days when there’s a left-handed opposing starter. That’d leave third base to a more defense-oriented player, likely one of Edmundo Sosa or Josh Harrison. The Phils could also take another look at Scott Kingery, who isn’t on the 40-man roster but has played well this spring. If they wish to look outside the organization, Miguel Sanó remains unsigned while Keston Hiura will be traded or waived within the next week.

As for Hoskins, Dombrowski noted the surgery comes with a recovery timetable of seven months. The Phils haven’t officially ruled him out for the entire season, with the baseball ops president telling Coffey they’re uncertain if Hoskins has a chance to return if the club makes a deep playoff run.

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