Discussion: Jimmy Rollins’ Next Contract
Much has been written about what the Yankees will do with Derek Jeter‘s pending free agency and how much the Yankee captain will earn even though he’s coming off a down year and may not be able to continue for much longer at the shortstop position. The catch, however, is that nobody expects Jeter to play anywhere but in New York and even if the Yankees overpay him, they can afford it for a franchise icon.
This scenario could replay itself in the 2011-12 offseason, though with more dramatic consequences. Jimmy Rollins will be a free agent after 2011 and while Rollins is almost as beloved in Philadelphia as Jeter is in the Big Apple, Rollins’ sharper decline may give the Phillies a tough choice to make next winter.
Rollins is coming off an injury-plagued 2010 campaign that saw him only hit .243/.320/.374 in 394 plate appearances. While this season could be explained by his calf and hamstring problems, Rollins wasn’t much more effective in 2009 (.250/.296/.423) when he led the majors with 725 PAs. Perhaps as a vote of confidence, the Phils picked up Rollins’ $8.5MM option for 2011 following that disappointing 2009 season, but the club have to be having second thoughts about that move given how Rollins played this season. One bright side: Rollins had a 12.3 UZR/150 rating in 2010, the second-best mark of his career.
Back in April, in the wake of Ryan Howard‘s massive extension, MLBTR’s Luke Adams looked at how Rollins’ future in Philadelphia might be impacted by Howard’s deal. Adams concluded that the Phillies would probably extend Rollins, but “If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies’ financial flexibility will take yet another hit.” MLBTR’s Howard Megdal agreed, painting a rather dire picture of Philadelphia’s payroll in 2012 and beyond.
Looking at the situation now, Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge‘s contracts almost surely be off the books after 2011; Ibanez is a free agent, Lidge has a $1.5MM buyout option. Jayson Werth is at best a 50-50 proposition to be re-signed, since the Phillies have Domonic Brown waiting in the wings.
Added to the equation, however, is Roy Oswalt‘s $16MM team option for 2012. Though Oswalt will turn 35 in 2012, the right-hander has showed no signs of slowing down. Given the choice between having Oswalt or a 33-year-old shortstop with a sub-.700 OPS, I think both the Phillies and their fans would prefer to see Oswalt back in the fold over Rollins if a choice had to be made. Philadelphia isn’t a small market by any means, but they certainly don’t have a Yankee-esque payroll that allows them to throw big money at everyone.
That said, Rollins’ decline in production could actually increase his chances of retiring as a Phillie if it lowers his asking price. Rather than a big-money contract, Rollins and the team could agree to an incentive-filled deal that stretches over three seasons and pays him around $9MM a year in guaranteed money. It gives the Phillies some flexibility, Rollins the chance to still earn extra cash if he reaches his incentives and both sides a PR win — the club for doing right by a Phillie hero and Rollins for not seeking an unrealistically big contract if he continues to decline.
Is $9MM a season still too much for a shortstop that had a lower OPS than Ian Desmond, Marco Scutaro or (by 16 points) even Derek Jeter this season? Probably, but as Yankees fans can tell you, there’s something to be said for overpaying a home-grown, World Series-winning star.
Odds & Ends: Ross, Hale, Daniels, Mets, Coaches
Some links to check out as Cody Ross attempts to follow up yesterday's two-home run performance and the Phillies look to even the score…
- Speaking of Ross, Andrew Baggarly of The Mercury News reports that Giants GM Brian Sabean left a "clear impression" before tonight's game that the outfielder will be tendered a contract this offseason.
- Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox bench coach DeMarlo Hale is getting a second interview for the Blue Jays managerial position.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets have been "asking around" about Rangers GM Jon Daniels, and things could get interesting. Daniels can opt out of his contract after the season since the team was sold.
- Steve Popper of The Bergen Record says that the Mets might not be making the popular choices right now, especially with Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, and Luis Castillo, but they're the right moves.
- Popper also reports that the Tigers denied the Mets permission to talk to assistant GM Al Avila about their GM vacancy.
- ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that Eric Young will be named the D'Backs first base coach later this week. In a second tweet, he says Eric Wedge's former pitching coach Carl Willis will likely play a big role on his new staff in Seattle.
- Despite the expected heavy interest from the Yankees and Rangers, Michael Silverman from the Boston Herald thinks the Red Sox should make a serious run at Cliff Lee.
- In the second page of that same article, Silverman quotes an unnamed executive in saying that a package consisting of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and prospect Anthony Rizzo wouldn't be enough to pry Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres. He speculates the names that would be mentioned next would include Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias.
- Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports says it makes more sense for the Orioles to trade for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter and an ace starter than seek one in free agency, and asks readers whether or not the O's should pursue Zack Greinke. In his blog post earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney didn't see Baltimore as a fit for the Kansas City ace.
- Reduced payroll will force the Rays into some tough decisions, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. As Topkin points out, nearly the entire bullpen is entering free agency. Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Joaquin Benoit, and Chad Qualls are only signed through 2010, while Dan Wheeler's $4MM option will be declined and Lance Cormier could be non-tendered. Balfour and Choate are most likely to return, while Benoit will likely look to capitalize on his monster season.
- Richard Griffin from the Toronto Star spoke with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin, who could be a candidate for the Jays' managerial opening, about the difficulty of getting a foot in the door as a manager. As Griffin says, part of the reason they continue to interview candidates while other teams are filling their managerial positions could be because they have a high level of interest in someone like Mackanin, whose team is still playing.
- The Phillies' worst nightmare isn't losing to the Giants in the NLCS or losing to the Yankees in the World Series, according FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. It's going to the World Series and facing the ace they traded away last offseason, who now sports a Rangers uniform — Cliff Lee.
Davidoff On Alderson, Valentine, Takahashi
In his latest piece for Newsday, Ken Davidoff notes that Bud Selig's job as commissioner occasionally involves making recommendations for teams searching for general managers. Selig recommended Jack Zduriencik when the Mariners were looking for a GM two years ago, and, more recently, gave Fred Wilpon a list of suggestions for the Mets. Given the "close ties" between Selig and Wilpon, the commissioner's backing of Sandy Alderson could carry significant weight. Here are the other items of interest from Davidoff's article:
- Although he has interviewed for multiple managerial positions, Bobby Valentine may end up back at ESPN next year rather than in a major league dugout. The Mets are still a possibility for Valentine, but if Alderson becomes the GM, he figures to make a cheaper, lower-profile hire.
- Potential free agent Hisanori Takahashi is open to remaining a reliever, meaning he won't necessarily seek out a situation where he has a chance to start.
- The last report we heard on Takahashi suggested that he'd prefer to remain a Met. However, Davidoff indicates the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers also "intrigue" the Japanese lefty.
Odds & Ends: Listach, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Hill
Saturday evening linkage as the Phillies and Giants kick off the NLCS…
- Nationals third base coach Pat Listach confirmed to Tom Haudricourt of The Journal Sentinel that he will interview for the Brewers' managerial opening on Tuesday.
- Nick Piecoro lists some candidates for the Diamondbacks' scouting director job (Twitter links): Tim Huff (Rays), J.J. Lally (White Sox), Chuck Ricci (Indians), and Jeff Schugel (Angels). ESPN's Keith Law tweets that Huff would be an excellent hire, and says he's surprised that Ray Montgomery (Brewers) and Rick Wilson (Angels) aren't on the list (Twitter link).
- MLB.com's Sarah D. Morris doesn't think the Dodgers need an overhaul.
- Lefty Rich Hill has already had discussions with the Red Sox about returning in 2011, tweets Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com.
- McAdam (via Twitter) also expects to see Darnell McDonald back in Boston next season.
- If Tony La Russa comes back to the Cardinals, he should sign a multi-year deal, says Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. learned how to build a successful team by working under Ed Wade and Pat Gillick, writes Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- The San Francisco Chronicle's Gwen Knapp praises the Giants' homegrown talent.
Odds & Ends: Lee, Alderson, Choo, Lowrie
As the ALCS gets underway, let's look at some news from around the majors…
- Jason A. Churchill of ESPN.com (Insider subscription needed) proposes that if the Phillies can unload some big contracts, they could make a run at signing Cliff Lee this winter. Adding Lee to the current Roy Halladay/Roy Oswalt/Cole Hamels mix would create one of the all-time great rotations in baseball history, but this seems like a major longshot. If the Phils can really move Joe Blanton or Raul Ibanez like they can in Churchill's scenario, one would think they'd spend that freed-up money on more pressing needs than pitching.
- Writing for MLB.com, former Dodgers general manager Fred Claire strongly endorses Sandy Alderson for the vacant Mets GM job. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith profiled Alderson earlier today.
- Yoon Chul, the reporter who wrote that Shin-Soo Choo wanted a "transfer" to a winning team, has apologized to the Indians for "editing problems" that altered the meaning of the Cleveland outfielder's words according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Another Korean journalist, Jeeho Yoo, told the Tribe that Choo said "he wants to stay with one club for a long time and Cleveland would be his first choice."
- Jed Lowrie's strong second half has made him a candidate to either take over the starting shortstop's job from Marco Scutaro or to become trade bait for a club looking for a young infielder, writes Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com.
- Some conflicted early reaction to Seattle's pending hire of Eric Wedge: CBSSports.com's Scott Miller thinks "the Mariners could not have made a more uninspiring hire," while 710ESPN Seattle's Shannon Drayer gets great reviews of Wedge from former players and Indians broadcaster Tom Hamilton.
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com looks back at the Rangers' 2007 trade of Mark Teixeira and how it was the starting point for the club's current success. Texas acquired Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Beau Jones from Atlanta for the slugging first baseman — safe to say the Rangers won that deal.
- Speaking of Teixeira, he cited teammate C.C. Sabathia as "arguably…the best free agent signing in Yankees history." The story from Marc Carig of The Star-Ledger cites Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, Teixeira himself and others as candidates for that title, plus Yankees GM Brian Cashman posits that Orlando Hernandez might've been the best signing from a pure dollars-to-performance standpoint.
- Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle writes that the Astros can take some lessons from how the Rangers rebuild their franchise, and that the Astros have finally belatedly gotten started on their own youth movement.
- Austin Kearns tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson that he "would love to stay" in New York next season.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Halladay, Fielder, Mets
On this date two years ago, the Cubs exercised Rich Harden's $9MM option for 2009 after tests showed that his throwing shoulder was healthy. Harden made 26 starts with a 4.09 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 141 innings that year before joining the Rangers in the offseason. The 28-year-old battled through another injury plagued year in 2010, throwing just 92 innings with a 5.58 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 6.3 BB/9 for Texas.
Harden might not be able to find a guaranteed Major League deal on the free agent market this winter, but I can guarantee that these links represent the best from around the blogosphere…
- Crashburn Alley re-lives Roy Halladay's playoff no-hitter, moment by moment.
- Meanwhile, Phoul Ballz spoke to some Blue Jays minor leaguers about how Doc's effort inspired them.
- The Nats Blog debates Halladay's Cy Young candidacy. Not that anyone asked me, but I consider him the frontrunner, and it's not particularly close either.
- Blogging From The Bleachers takes an in depth look at how Japanese pitchers have transitioned to MLB.
- The OC Baseball Council examines some potential destinations for Prince Fielder.
- U.S.S. Mariner looks at some free agent second base options for the Mariners.
- Amazin' Avenue reveals their John Hart-Rick Hahn-Chip Hale management plan.
- Blogging Mets hands out a final report card for the 2010 Mets.
- Waiting For Next Year compares how the Indians' roster was built to those of some postseason clubs.
- SD Sports Net wonders if Ryan Ludwick should be patrolling the Padres' outfield next season.
- Cubs Pack wonders what life will be like after Aramis Ramirez.
- The Outfield Ivy looks at some first base options for the Cubs next season.
- SPANdemonium lists the game's 50 more underrated prospects.
- Batter's Box names their top ten Blue Jays prospects.
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Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco
- Second time: None
- Third time: Greg Dobbs
The Phillies have locked up their regulars in the name of cost certainty, leaving only three arbitration-eligible role players. Kendrick did enough as a back-end guy to be tendered a contract. Francisco will stay as well, as he's still a solid fourth outfielder. Dobbs will certainly be cut loose, as he was designated for assignment twice during the season.
Odds & Ends: Marlins, Orioles, Matsuzaka, Mariners
A few links to check out as the Padres live to fight another day…
- The Marlins told interim manager Edwin Rodriguez that he will be evaluated after the season and there is no managerial commitment for 2011 yet, according to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post (Twitter links).
- Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun says that the Orioles brain trust and new manager Buck Showalter have already had "extensive conversations" about the direction they want to go this offseason.
- ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes hears that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be willing to waive his no trade clause if it sent him to the West Coast. John Hickey of AOL Fanhouse says the Mariners might be willing to discuss a trade with the Sox, as long as the price is low (both Twitter links).
- The Phillies have asked their entire coaching staff to return for the 2011 season, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. It's no sure thing they'll all return though; GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he's had at least one inquiry on a coach for a managerial opening.
- Josh Byrnes told Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links)that he'd be interested in returning to a GM role if the situation was right. Rosenthal didn't ask him about the Mets, as Omar Minaya is technically still their GM.
- Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes that Jeremy Guthrie has graduated to being a "go-to starter" and shouldn't be traded by the Orioles.
- Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh-Post Gazette says that Pirates team president Frank Coonelly and owner Bob Nutting will soon decide the fate of GM Neal Huntington and other baseball personnel, and that Huntington will have input into the future of manager John Russell if he's retained. Both are under contract through next season, but Huntington's job appears to be safer. The GM was non-committal when discussing Russell during an interview Thursday night.
- Adrian Beltre has put himself into a real nice position heading into free agency, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. The third baseman said that he "will give everyone a chance" when it comes to listening to contract offers, but ultimately he will do what's best for him and his family.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) that he is not looking to trade Matt Kemp, but he will certainly listen to any offers that come his way. "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part," said Colletti. He expressed a similar sentiment about the team's other "core younger guys."
- Even though he is on his way out as Blue Jays manager, Cito Gaston told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he feels the team will need some veteran relievers next season. Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg could all depart via free agency this winter.
Poll: The Best Record In Baseball
There's just a little more than a week left in the season, and with the exception of the NL West and NL Wild Card, the playoff teams are all but set. Now it's just a matter of sorting out the seeding.
For most of the season it's been assumed that whoever won the AL East would finish the season with the best record in all of baseball, but suddenly that's not the case any more. The Phillies staked a claimed to best record with last night's win, their 11th in a row to put their season record at 93-61. Both the Rays and Twins sit half-a-game behind them at 92-61, and the Yankees are within a game of Philly with a 92-62 record. No other team is within six games of the Phillies.
Since the NL won the All Star Game and thus clinched home field advantage in the World Series, having the best record in baseball isn't worth much beyond bragging rights. That might not mean anything to the teams, but it certainly means something to us fans. Remember, you can always check out the reverse standings (for draft order purposes) at our page, but it's time to vote…
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: LaRue, Martin, Ortiz, Minaya
On this date four years ago, Trevor Hoffman set a new career saves mark when he retired Ryan Doumit, Jose Bautista, and Freddy Sanchez of the Pirates in order. His 479th save moved him past Lee Smith and into first place on the all-time list, a spot he still holds today with 600 career saves on the nose. Other than Mariano Rivera and the soon-to-retire Billy Wagner, no active closer is within 310 saves of Hoffman's mark.
Here's a collection of links from the last week of the baseball blog world…
- The Hardball Times takes an in-depth look at the legal implications of the Johnny Cueto–Jason LaRue brawl that led to LaRue's retirement.
- Disciples of Uecker checks in with the players the Brewers traded for C.C. Sabathia back in 2008.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. looks at how the Pirates bullpen has performed since trading away some key pieces at the deadline.
- The Process Report follows up a previous post and explains how Jose Lobaton continues to help the Rays even though he's never played a game for them.
- Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness breaks down the Dodgers' options with Russell Martin.
- Red Sox Beacon tries to figure out what Boston should do with David Ortiz.
- Amazin' Avenue audits Omar Minaya's front office.
- Crashburn Alley discusses the genius of Charlie Manuel.
- Drunk Jays Fans looked at the merits of Rays' bench coach Dave Martinez as a potential Cito Gaston replacement.
- Feeling Dodger Blue says Tim Wallach should have gotten the Dodgers manager job over Don Mattingly.
- A Fan's Opinion plans out the Angels offseason.
- DesigNate Robertson does the same, but for the Tigers.
- Lookout Landing guesses at the Mariners' 2011 payroll.
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