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MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2020 at 7:00pm CDT

With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central?
Reds 38.92% (9,801 votes)
Cardinals 30.54% (7,691 votes)
Cubs 18.24% (4,594 votes)
Brewers 12.29% (3,094 votes)
Total Votes: 25,180
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NL Notes: Senzel, Pirates, Cespedes, Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | February 17, 2020 at 10:12pm CDT

As of a few weeks ago, the Reds were reportedly “considering” trade scenarios centering on Nick Senzel. However, president of baseball operations Dick Williams then suggested the outfielder/second baseman isn’t going anywhere. That’s fine with Senzel, who said Monday (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer): “I’m happy to be here. I want to be here for my whole career. I want to play in Cincinnati for these fans and my teammates. Any time those talks come up or anything, there is literally nothing I can do about it. I have no control over it. The less I worry about it, the better.” Senzel then noted trade rumors are “part of the business, especially when top names are getting thrown around.” Indeed, it never seemed as if the Reds would move Senzel during the winter without getting back a star-caliber player in return.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • To say this has been an offseason low on impact acquisitions for the Pirates would be an understatement. They’ve signed three major league free agents – catcher Luke Maile and a pair of outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia – all for modest prices. Thanks to its offseason decisions, including the trade of center fielder Starling Marte to Arizona, Pittsburgh’s projected to enter 2020 with a microscopic payroll of $60MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. It’s not an ideal way to build a team, but the Pirates are in a rebuild. Once (and if) the Pirates begin to turn things around, new general manager Ben Cherington expects to have more money at his disposal. “I’m confident [payroll] will increase over time as we get deeper into our team build, there’s opportunity and we get closer with those opportunities,” Cherington stated Sunday (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “I’m confident we’ll have the means to build a winning team and add pieces. We’re not putting any kind of date on when that could happen. We’re going to try and get there as soon as we can. That’s an every-day thing.” The Pirates have come under fire for a lack of spending, though Cherington added that he’s “really confident that the total investment in baseball operations is not just enough but really competitive within the industry,”
  • It has been a trying couple years for Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, a former star. The 34-year-old missed a sizable chunk of time from 2017-18 and didn’t take the field at all last season as a result of various injuries, including one suffered during a run-in with a wild boar. The Mets then amended Cespedes’ contract back in December, dropping his 2020 salary from $29.5MM to $6MM. Cespedes is now working to return to form in the wake of a long layoff, but he wasn’t cooperative with the media Monday after the Mets’ first full-squad workout, as Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News relays. Asked if he’d discuss his offseason, his general health or the boar encounter, he offered, “Not today, not tomorrow, not at all this year.”
  • With Jordan Hicks recovering from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Martinez on his way back to their rotation, the Cardinals will hold closer auditions all spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Andrew Miller, Ryan Helsley, John Gant, Giovanny Gallegos, John Brebbia, Alex Reyes and offseason signing Kwang-Hyun Kim could all be candidates to land the job, though the Cardinals may choose to fill the role by committee. “Having one guy who is a lock down guy is fine,” manager Mike Shildt told Goold. “If we don’t have that then clearly the multiple options are going to be necessary.”
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Pirates Sign Jarrod Dyson

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2020 at 10:50am CDT

February 13: The Pirates have officially announced the signing via press release. To create space for Dyson on the 40-man roster, the Bucs placed righty Jameson Taillon on the 60-day injured list. Taillon is expected to miss most, if not all of the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August.

February 12: The Pirates have a deal in place with veteran outfielder Jarrod Dyson, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). It’s a one-year, big-league contract, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Dyson will earn $2MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. (Twitter link. Heyman also first reported the sides were close to a deal.)

Jarrod Dyson | Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Dyson will help the Bucs cover for the departure of center fielder Starling Marte — who was dealt to Dyson’s most recent team, the Diamondbacks. It’s likely that the Pirates will utilize others up the middle as well, though we’ll know more when the club gathers up its position players in camp.

Now 35 years of age, Dyson is no longer quite the player he once was. He remains an excellent defender and elite baserunner, so the Bucs can feel confident they’ll get value in those areas. Those attributes also make Dyson an easy player to trade to a contender in need of a mid-season roster boost in anticipation of the postseason, as Dyson is a tailor-made late-inning bench asset.

Trouble is, the bat has lagged noticeably of late. From 2013-17, he carried a .262/.326/.361 slash line — hardly a standout mark, but within 12% or so of league-average productivity. It was easily enough to make Dyson a valuable player given his other high-grade tools. But over his two seasons with the Diamondbacks, Dyson has slumped to a meager .216/.302/.299 batting line.

There’s really not much to love about Dyson’s profile at the plate. He has boosted his walk rate of late but has consistently failed to make hard contact — though that was true also when he was turning in better outcomes. Whether due to his approach or those of opposing pitchers, Dyson’s launch angle has also headed northward. He has not gained any pop but has seen his batting average (and batting average on balls in play) dive.

It’s still easy to see the appeal of this move for the Bucs. There is some value to be found here and Dyson does keep the door open somewhat to competitiveness. Perhaps there is even a bit of overall upside, if the club can help him find a way to reduce the number of harmless fly balls he’s hitting while maintaining his plate-discipline improvements.

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Closer Role Notes: Red Sox, Pirates, Marlins

By Jeff Todd | February 13, 2020 at 8:03am CDT

The notion of a closer’s role has evolved over the years, but there’s never been any doubt of the importance of a reliable late-inning relief strategy. While some organizations prefer more flexible arrangements, quite a few still utilize dedicated ninth-inning men. Settling on a closer isn’t just important to a team and to fantasy baseball gurus. It’s also a factor in a player’s trade and free agent status and — especially — to his potential arbitration earnings.

Here are some early notes on spring closer situations from around the game …

  • Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke made rather clear that he views Brandon Workman as the top closing option entering camp, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The club isn’t making anything official just yet, but the comments from the just-minted skipper give him a strong presumption. That’s not too surprising: the 31-year-old Workman emerged as a premium pen arm last year, when he racked up 71 2/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball with 13.1 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. He does have some experience closing out games, having finished 16 Boston wins as part of a committee approach last year.
  • For the Pirates, there’ll be no waiting: new skipper Derek Shelton says Keone Kela will handle the ninth, as Adam Berry of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Kela’s time in Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been smooth, but he’s undeniably talented enough to do the job and will now be challenged with added responsibility as the organization seeks to turn the page on a brutal 2019 season. There were numerous problems on and off the field for the Bucs. By far the most important was the arrest of closer Felipe Vazquez on charges so awful that it’s hard even to think of the matter from a baseball perspective. But the organization has obviously had to make decisions to account for that departure. There is plenty of incentive for Kela, who will be a free agent at season’s end. If things go better for the 26-year-old than for the remainder of the Pirates team, he could also feature as a significant mid-season trade piece.
  • The Marlins have set about compiling a new-look bullpen this winter. It seems it’ll be anchored by one of the club’s recent veteran additions. Manager Don Mattingly strongly suggested that Brandon Kintzler is the top choice to function as closer, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio tweets. The 35-year-old isn’t exactly a prototypical swing-and-miss, capital-C closer type. But he did turn in 57 frames of 2.68 ERA ball last year with a typically strong 54.7% groundball rate. And Kintzler has saved 49 games in his career.
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Red Sox, Pirates Among Teams Showing Interest In Kevin Pillar

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2020 at 4:30pm CDT

The market for free-agent outfielder Kevin Pillar is “heating up,” tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and the Red Sox and Pirates are among the clubs with interest in the 31-year-old.

Both Pittsburgh (Starling Marte) and Boston (Mookie Betts), of course, have completed trades shipping high-profile outfielders out of town. The Red Sox added an immediate option to step into Betts’ shoes, Alex Verdugo, but his acquisition gives the club three left-handed-hitting outfielders. Pairing Pillar with that trio would give the Sox an option at any of three outfield slots — and one who carries a respectable .281/.313/.453 career batting line against left-handed pitching. Notably, with Betts and David Price traded to the Dodgers, Red Sox ownership has accomplished its goal of dropping south of the luxury tax barrier; Boston is currently about $9.5MM shy of that $208MM cutoff point, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

The path to regular at-bats in Pittsburgh seems more direct for Pillar. Bryan Reynolds and Gregory Polanco are likely to roam two of the three outfield spots — likely the corners — and the Buccos’ other options are utilityman JT Riddle and reserve outfielder Guillermo Heredia. Prospect Jason Martin could eventually emerge as a spot, but he’s rehabbing from October surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and could be limited early in the year.

Pillar hit a career-best 21 home runs in 2019 and notched his fifth straight season with 14 or more steals. His once-elite glovework now grades out closer to average, but he should be at least a serviceable option in center and could yet see a rebound in that regard. However, Pillar also drew a walk in only 2.8 percent of his plate appearances, leading to a .287 on-base percentage that was the fourth-worst among all qualified hitters. Overall, Pillar’s .259/.287/.432 slash was 15 percent worse than league average by measure of wRC+ and 11 percent below average per OPS+.

Those lackluster on-base skills, the diminished defensive ratings and a projected $9.7MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) all surely played a role in the Giants’ decision to non-tender Pillar earlier in the offseason. He’s certainly in line to earn less than that projection at this point, but the veteran center fielder still seems like a candidate to land a Major League deal — be it in Boston, Pittsburgh or elsewhere.

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Quick Hits: Young, Torre, Int’l Prospects, Leon, Franco

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2020 at 6:51pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced some changes within its baseball operations department, including the hirings of the newly-retired Gregor Blanco and Nick Hundley.  Some other familiar names will be taking on new roles, as head of baseball operations Joe Torre will now be a special assistant to commissioner Rob Manfred.  Taking over Torre’s former job as the head of the ops department is former right-hander Chris Young, whose new title is senior VP of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy.  This portfolio covers, as per the league’s press release, “issues that affect play on the field, including oversight of umpiring, playing rules and regulations, on-field standards and discipline, pace of play and other special projects.”  Young has worked for the league since May 2018, coming on the heels of a 17-year pro career that included 1297 2/3 innings pitched over parts of 13 MLB seasons.

More from around the baseball world….

  • Some of the top outfield prospects in the 2020-21 international draft class are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who also details which teams are expected to sign these players on July 2.  The Reds, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers are all thought to have seven-figure bonuses lined up for four players from the Dominican Republic, though the Astros are reportedly ready to pay what may be the biggest bonus given to any player in the 2020-21 class — a deal in the neighborhood of $4MM to 21-year-old Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon.  Because of his age, Leon is already eligible to sign, though he will wait until the opening of the next July 2 window because most teams have exhausted most or all of their funds from their 2019-20 international signing pools.  The int’l market will take on added importance for the Astros over the next two years, as the club’s pipeline of top young talent will be limited after losing their top two picks in both the 2020 and 2021 amateur drafts as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
  • The Royals didn’t waste time in their pursuit of Maikel Franco, as assistant GM Rene Francisco called Franco the day after the Phillies non-tendered the third baseman, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star writes.  Franco and the Royals agreed to a one-year, $2.95MM deal within a few weeks’ time of Francisco’s early expression of interest, and Franco has since been diligently working with Royals coaches to overhaul his approach at the plate.  Rather than the grounder-heavy results that defined so much of his stint in Philadelphia, Franco is putting a particular focus on getting the ball in the air.
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GM Ben Cherington: Pirates Planning To “Build,” Not “Rebuild”

By Mark Polishuk | February 6, 2020 at 4:40pm CDT

There have been persistent rumblings that the Pirates could respond to their disastrous 2019 season by going into a rebuild phase, and that speculation only increased after the recent trade that sent Starling Marte to the Diamondbacks for two longer-term prospects.  While changes are certainly afoot in Pittsburgh, a full-scale rebuild isn’t happening, or at least not by new general manager Ben Cherington’s definition of the term.

“If I think about the word rebuild, what comes to my mind is a team that has been doing well that you are taking apart to then rebuild it, and you’re in the process of doing that,” Cherington told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  As an example, Cherington (who most recently worked as Toronto’s senior VP of baseball operations) described the Blue Jays’ thought process following their consecutive ALCS appearances in 2015-16, as “we knew we were going to have to rebuild that roster” of increasingly aging and expensive players.

Just over three seasons later, not a single player from the 2016 Jays remains on the team’s current 40-man roster, yet Cherington said such a drastic overhaul isn’t necessary for the Pirates.  “A good chunk of players who were on the team last year will be on the team this year, and they really do have a chance to be part of that next winning team. We’re just trying to build toward that,” the general manager said.

In fairness, Cherington admitted that fans may not share his specific view of what constitutes a “rebuild,” and knows that Pittsburgh supporters simply want to see a winning team back on the field.  As we’ve seen in recent years from teams like the Astros, Cubs, and Phillies (or, presently, by the Orioles, Marlins, and Tigers), rebuilds have become most often defined as a strategy that involves a team deciding to overhaul its entire organization in a scorched-earth process that involves trading away all veteran talent and rebuilding around younger players, and subsequently asking fans to be patient through four or five years of losing baseball until the club is again competitive.

This type of total remake isn’t necessary in Pittsburgh, Cherington feels, as “we’re not tearing something down to start over.  We are simply taking a team that wasn’t good enough or wasn’t as good as we wanted to be last year, but has a group of players with a chance to be much better, and we’re trying to build on that.  If we had made four or five other trades [besides the Marte deal] involving more established Major League players who were on last year’s team, then maybe I’d think about it differently.”

These comments aren’t far removed from the recent statements from Pirates owner Bob Nutting, who said that one of the primary focuses of the new front office would be discovering how to better develop and get the best out of their current players.  While adding more talent to the roster is also a chief priority, Cherington may not feel compelled to trade such notables as Josh Bell, Chris Archer, Gregory Polanco, or others if they feel these players haven’t yet reached their ceilings.  Of course, payroll considerations will always factor into the club’s decisions, though even if more expensive players like Archer or Polanco are eventually moved, Cherington may prefer to wait and see if either can have bounce-back seasons under the new coaching staff rather than trade them now in what could turn out to be sell-low scenarios.

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Indians Had Interest In Starling Marte

By Mark Polishuk | February 1, 2020 at 5:57pm CDT

The Indians’ offseason has largely been dominated by the specter of cutting payroll (such as the Corey Kluber trade to the Rangers or the persistent trade rumors around Francisco Lindor) rather than major acquisitions, the team’s signing of Cesar Hernandez notwithstanding.  However, it seems as though the Tribe at least considered a significant addition, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that “the Indians were in on” Starling Marte before the Pirates dealt the center fielder to the Diamondbacks earlier this week.

The nature of the Tribe’s offer to Pittsburgh isn’t known, though we can at least make a speculative comparison to what the Pirates received from the D’Backs — $250K in international bonus pool money, and two interesting but non-elite prospects (shortstop Liover Peguero and right-hander Brennan Malone) who are each at least two or three years away from reaching the majors.  Since the Bucs sent just $1.5MM in cash to Arizona as part of the deal, the D’Backs also took on almost all of the financial obligations for Marte, who is owed $11.5MM in 2020 and is controllable via a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2021 season.

It could be that the Pirates simply preferred Peguero and Malone to whatever prospects were floated by the Tribe, and that money wasn’t a primary difference between Cleveland’s offer and Arizona’s offer.  Still, assuming the finances would’ve broken down in a similar fashion, adding $10MM for Marte’s salary would’ve elevated the Indians’ 2020 payroll to a little beyond $106.5MM, as per Roster Resource.  That still represents a notable step down from the $150MM+ payrolls the Indians had at the end of the 2017 and 2018 seasons, or even the $129.3MM year-end payroll from 2019.  Since Marte’s 2021 option is likely to be exercised, Cleveland could have still found payroll room considering that Carlos Santana and Brad Hand could both come off the books via club options of their own, Hernandez is a free agent, plus who knows what other payroll space could be carved out by future trades (such as a Lindor deal).

As Hoynes notes, the Tribe’s interest in Marte indicates that the team could still be willing to spend to upgrade its 26-man roster, whether such a move happens in the offseason or perhaps closer to the trade deadline.  Marte would have been a clear boost to Cleveland’s shaky outfield picture right now, though the Indians have enough outfielders in the mix that they might prefer to see which (if any) of those players steps up to become a reliable regular performer before looking at bringing any new players onto the roster.  Oscar Mercado currently looks like the only Tribe outfielder slated for true everyday duty, as Jake Bauers, Delino DeShields, Greg Allen, Jordan Luplow, Bradley Zimmer and (when he isn’t at DH) Franmil Reyes are all vying for regular playing time.

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On Pirates’ Recent Moves

By TC Zencka | February 1, 2020 at 10:01am CDT

The Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington emerged from his new office this week with the first batch of transactions since he took over in Pittsburgh. The Starling Marte trade to Arizona was the headline-grabbiest of the bunch, wherein Cherington added two high-ceiling, but far-away prospects to Pittsburgh system.

A flurry of low-key pickups followed for Cherington as the Pirates bought  in bulk: Charlie Tilson, Andrew Susac, JT Riddle, Robbie Erlin and Derek Holland signed minor league deals this week. Cherington gives Erlin a decent shot of joining the bullpen, which is otherwise without a lefty except for rotation candidate Steven Brault, per The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.

Holland, too, could end up in the bullpen, but like Brault, he’ll be given a shot at the rotation. Holland’s glory days as a Texas Ranger are long in the rearview, but his 2018 with the Giants at least gives the perception of a raised ceiling for Holland after otherwise forgettable stints with each Chicago team. It was just two seasons ago that Holland put up 171 1/3 innings with an impressive 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP across 36 games for the Giants.

Holland’s shoe game remained on-point in 2019, but he struggled on the hill, both for the Giants and then for the Cubs. He only got 7 turns through the rotation to start the season, but 26 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings earned a demotion to the bullpen, where he stayed until the deadline trade to the Cubs. The Cubs relied on him as a lefty reliever out of the pen, but he struggled there, too, marking a 10.50 ERA in September, contributing to the Cubs’ tailspin.

Still, he’ll come into camp representing a veteran floor for the Pittsburgh rotation as Brault and Mitch Keller try to earn their spot. If the young Pirate arms aren’t ready to take the ball every five days, Holland could find himself back in a big league rotation in 2020.

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Pirates Sign Charlie Tilson, Andrew Susac

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2020 at 10:03pm CDT

The Pirates announced minor league deals with outfielder Charlie Tilson and catcher Andrew Susac on Friday. Both players will be in Major League camp this spring, as will lefties Derek Holland and Robbie Erlin, whose previously reported minor league deals were confirmed by the team.

Tilson, 27, was once a well-regarded prospect with the Cardinals and White Sox. Known primarily for his speed, he was flipped from St. Louis to Chicago several years ago in a deal that sent Zach Duke to the Cardinals. The ChiSox hoped they’d found a top-of-the-order hitter who could provide good defense and generally serve as a nuisance to other teams on the basepaths, but Tilson unfortunately tore his hamstring in his debut game with the Sox back in 2016. Other lower half injuries, namely a stress reaction in his right foot, limited him substantially the following year.

Tilson has now appeared in 96 big league games but has never gotten back on track after that rash of injuries in 2016-17. He’s a career .246/.310/.290 hitter in the Majors, although last year’s Triple-A showing (.288/.345/.398) at least created a bit of optimism that perhaps he could still tap into some of that previous potential. Tilson swiped only eight bases between Triple-A and the Majors in 2019, however, so it appears his days as a 40-steal threat might be in the past now that those lower-half injuries have taken their toll.

Susac, meanwhile, was not only a well-regarded prospect but was at various points considered to be among the game’s top 100 farmhands during his days with the Giants. His strong work early in his career in Triple-A has never really carried over to the Majors, though, and the now-29-year-old backstop (30 in March) has a career .221/.283/.373 slash in 300 big league plate appearances. He’s a career .247/.351/.431 hitter in Triple-A — numbers that are somewhat skewed by an awful 2017 season with Milwaukee’s top affiliate.

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