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Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Pirates Recall Miguel Andujar

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The Pirates have recalled Miguel Andujar to the team, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic reports. The Pirates had outrighted him off the roster in January, but he’ll return after a month in Triple-A. Wil Crowe has been transferred to the 60-day IL while Drew Maggi has been optioned to the minors, but will stay with the team as the 27th man for today’s double header in Washington.

Andujar has made a solid start to the season at Triple-A Indianapolis, slashing .284/.364/.500 through his first 99 plate appearances. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner up is earning $1.53MM this year as an arbitration-eligible player. He came over to the Pirates from the Yankees last season, but hit just .250/.275/.389 in 40 plate appearances down the stretch. Andujar will likely provide cover off the bench as an option to play first and third base as well as corner outfield. He’s in the lineup for today’s game, batting sixth and starting in right.

Maggi, 34 next month, was one of the feel good stories of the season after getting his first big league callup following 13 seasons in the minor leagues. Drafted in the 15th round of the 2010 draft, Maggi had toiled away in the Pirates system ever since but was finally rewarded with a big league call. He only tallied four plate appearances across two games, failing to notch a big league hit and striking out once. He may well get one more chance at that, with Maggi sticking around to serve as the team’s 27th man for the double header against the Nationals today.

As for Crowe, he landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort during the week but the fact that the team has quickly transferred him to the 60-day indicates that the issue may well be more serious than first thought. Crowe had worked to a 4.66 ERA across 9 2/3 innings out of the Bucs’ bullpen this season.

Pirates Could Pursue More Contract Extensions

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The Pirates’ extension of Bryan Reynolds — seven years and $100MM on top of his current $6.75MM salary — put an end to a long-running saga of trade rumors swirling around the All-Star outfielder. It’s the first nine-figure contract in franchise history and the second long-term deal with a hopeful core player of the past 14 months; Pittsburgh also signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70MM deal prior to the 2022 season. Speaking at yesterday’s press conference to announce the Reynolds extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting suggested that he hopes to work out long-term deals with additional core players (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

Nutting noted that “to a great degree, we’re just getting started,” going on to call Reynolds’ new contract “a huge step forward for the franchise” before adding that he’s “confident we’ll have future steps as we go forward.” Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out Gorman’s full piece for comments not only from Nutting but also from Reynolds himself and from general manager Ben Cherington.

On the one hand, it’s fairly common for owners and baseball operations leaders to offer up what’s essentially boilerplate executive-speak about wanting to extend core players on a young club. On the other, Nutting has kept a notoriously tight budget and small payroll for the Pirates. The extensions for Hayes and especially for Reynolds mark a definitive change in course for the club, and with fresh off guaranteeing his top player an additional $100MM in guaranteed money, Nutting’s words perhaps carry a bit of extra credence.

If the Bucs do plan to explore — or already have explored — long-term pacts with additional players, there are a handful of logical candidates for such a deal. In the rotation, right-handers Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller both increasingly look like solid building blocks, though they’re at very different stages of their careers. The 23-year-old Contreras doesn’t yet have a full season of Major League service time, putting his earning power on an extension considerably south of Keller. The Reds just locked up righty Hunter Greene, who was controllable for five more seasons, on a six-year, $53MM contract. Contreras is even further removed from free agency and would presumably come with a lower price tag.

Keller, meanwhile, is earning $2.4375MM in 2023 with just two more seasons of club control remaining beyond the current campaign. The 2014 second-rounder ranked as one of the game’s top pitching prospects prior to his debut in 2019, and while it’s taken some time for him to get there, Keller has begun to solidify himself as a quality starter.

Dating back to last May, when he added a sinker to his repertoire and began to rely less heavily on his four-seamer, the 27-year-old sports a 3.28 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 8.6% strikeout rate and 48.1% ground-ball rate in 159 1/3 innings. That includes an impressive six-inning, two-run, 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers today. If he were to continue at this pace, he’d have a strong case in extension talks. For some context, Keller will be in the same service class following the 2023 season that Kyle Freeland (five years, $64.5MM) and Pablo Lopez (four years, $73.5MM) were when they signed their own extensions. The Bucs could try to pursue something sooner, but regardless, much of Keller’s breakout looks sustainable.

Elsewhere on the roster, closer David Bednar is a local product who’s emerged as a fan favorite and as one of the game’s better relievers. Since coming over from the Padres as part of the return for Joe Musgrove, he’s pitched to a 2.26 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 30 saves and 17 holds. His 2023 campaign has been particularly impressive, as Bednar has yielded just one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

That said, relievers are notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis, and Bednar is already 28 years old. The Pirates control him through his age-31 season and might find some risk in locking him into an extension that would effectively be buying his age-32 campaign and perhaps a season or two thereafter.

In the lineup, the Pirates have some interesting candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is currently out while recovering from a fractured ankle but has displayed some of the most tantalizing tools in all of baseball when healthy. His development is still a work in progress, particularly with regard to his approach at the plate, but few players can match his combination of power, speed and athleticism. Meanwhile, outfielder Jack Suwinski has quickly become a Statcast darling, with eye-popping exit velocity, barrel rates and sprint speed. Both young hitters are controllable through the 2028 season at present.

The Bucs have plenty of young talent beyond that grouping — some of it yet to debut in the Majors. Catchers Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are among the most highly regarded in the sport at their position. Right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester are both considered potential rotation pieces in the long term. Infielder Nick Gonzales just hit the minor league injured list with a shoulder strain today but is in Triple-A and could potentially make his debut later this year if the issue proves minor.

Broadly speaking, the Pirates have a deep and talented system, with plenty of interesting long-term pieces already on the roster and also on the cusp of debuting while biding their time in the upper minors. There’s always risk for a low-payroll club like this to lock players up so early, as the margin for error is thinner than with a deep-pocketed rival. That said, hitting a home run on an early extension can also be key in allowing teams in this payroll sphere to spend a bit more in free agency, if their core players are locked in at affordable rates. Only time will tell whether Nutting’s comments were merely lip service or the beginning of a welcome trend for Bucs fans, but regardless of which is true, the organization’s future looks increasingly bright.

Pirates’ Mike Burrows Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Pirates pitching prospect Mike Burrows underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday and is expected to be sidelined for the next 14 to 16 months, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic). Burrows hit the minor league injured list earlier this month with a UCL sprain and sought multiple opinions before undergoing surgery.

The Pirates selected Burrows in the 11th round of the 2018 draft and lured him away from a college commitment to Connecticut with a hefty $500K signing bonus — effectively late-third or early-fourth round money. He’s dealt with shoulder and oblique injuries in his minor league career but has sharp numbers overall, with a 3.34 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate in 207 2/3 professional innings.

Those injuries and the canceled minor league season in 2020 slowed Burrows’ development, but he looked like a viable option to make his big league debut in 2023, prior to the revelation of the damaged ligament and subsequent surgery. Burrows turned in a 2.94 ERA in 52 innings at the Double-A level last year and earned his first bump to the Triple-A level. He was tagged for a 5.31 ERA in 42 1/3 Triple-A frames but showed a promising 42-to-12 K/BB ratio and kept the ball in the yard (1.06 HR/9). Burrows had a solid spring training this year (two runs in five innings) and opened the season with just two runs in 6 2/3 frames in a return to Triple-A.

Each of Baseball America (No. 9), MLB.com (No. 9), FanGraphs (No. 7) and Keith Law of The Athletic (No. 7) rank Burrows within the Pirates’ top ten prospects. He’s praised for a plus fastball, high-spin curveball and improved and more oft-used changeup, with enough command to profile as a potential big league starter. There’s a good chance that Burrows might’ve gotten that opportunity at some point this season were it not for the unfortunate injury, but he’ll now see his big league debut pushed off until late in the 2024 season, at the earliest.

Burrows is on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, so it’s possible he’ll eventually be placed on the Major League 60-day injured list, should the Pirates need a 40-man roster spot. In that scenario, he’d accrue big league service time and Major League pay while rehabbing the injury.

Dick Groat Passes Away

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Former National League MVP and eight-time All-Star Dick Groat has passed away at the age of 92, the Pirates announced this morning.

“We are deeply saddened by the loss of such a beloved member of the Pirates family and Pittsburgh community,” Pirates owner Bob Nutting said in a statement announcing the news. “The National League MVP and World Series Champion in 1960, Dick remained a very active and cherished member of our Alumni Association. We were honored to have just recently informed Dick and his family that he had been selected to the Pirates Hall of Fame. He was a great player and an even better person. Our thoughts go out to his three daughters, eleven grandchildren and the entire Groat family. His was a life well lived. He will be missed.”

A Pittsburgh-area native and one of the best two-sport athletes ever, Groat not only played in MLB but also had a brief stint in the NBA on the heels of a historic basketball career at Duke University, where his number is retired. Groat was the third overall pick in the 1952 NBA draft but wound up playing in just one season after enlisting in the Army and focusing on his baseball career following his discharge.

Groat jumped right from his career at Duke into Major League Baseball, bypassing the minor leagues entirely. He batted .284/.319/.313 and finished third in 1952 NL Rookie of the Year voting before the previously mentioned two years of military service. Upon returning in 1955, he posted similar numbers for his next two seasons and took a step forward in 1957, the first of four seasons in which Groat would receive MVP votes.

From 1957-64, Groat batted a combined .299/.340/.393, regularly making the All-Star team along the way and four times garnering some level of MVP consideration. That includes a 1960 season in which he won a batting title and batted .325/.371/.394 on his way to being named the National League MVP. He also finished as the MVP runner-up to Sandy Koufax in 1963 — Groat’s first season with the Cardinals after being sent to St. Louis in a trade that brought pitcher Don Cardwell and infielder Julio Gotay back to Pittsburgh.

In all, Groat played in parts of 14 Major League seasons: nine with the Pirates, three with the Cardinals, two with the Phillies and one partial season with the Giants. He retired as a lifetime .286/.330/.366 batter with 2138 hits, 39 home runs, 352 doubles, 67 triples, 829 runs scored and 707 runs batted in. He won World Series rings with the Pirates in 1960 and with the Cardinals in 1964, helping both clubs topple the Yankees in the Fall Classic.

Following his playing days, Groat spent 40 years as a broadcaster for the University of Pittsburgh’s men’s basketball team, further endearing himself to hometown fans and further establishing his legacy in his native city’s sporting lore.

Groat will be remembered as one of the greatest two-sport talents we’ve ever seen, a World Series champion in both Pittsburgh and St. Louis, and a beloved broadcaster in his hometown. We at MLBTR extend our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones and the countless fans he accumulated over the course of a remarkable career.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Athletics Move, Twins Rotation, Reynolds Extension

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Episode 4 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss:

  • Oakland’s move to Las Vegas took a big step forward, so Betsy, who covered baseball for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, tells us about Vegas as a baseball city (1:35)
  • The Twins are off to a solid start to the season and Joey Gallo is hitting very well, so is he back? (5:24)
  • Minnesota is set to lose Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda to free agency this winter, so after the Pablo Lopez extension Betsy offers her thoughts on whether or not there’ll be any more rotation extensions for the Twins (7:26)

Plus, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco joins to talk:

  • Bryan Reynolds has agreed to an eight-year, $106.75MM extension with the Pirates – is this a good deal for the team? (15:01)
  • Madison Bumgarner has been designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and looks headed for free agency; will he find a new team? (24:57)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Pirates Select Cody Bolton, Designate Tyler Heineman

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The Pirates announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Cody Bolton and reinstated outfielder Bryan Reynolds from the bereavement list. In corresponding moves, right-hander Wil Crowe was placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 23, with right shoulder discomfort and outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, catcher Tyler Heineman was designated for assignment. Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic has previously reported that Bolton had the locker in the clubhouse that previously was used by Smith-Njigba (Twitter links). Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported Crowe’s IL placement.

Bolton, 25 in June, is now added to a big league roster for the first time in his career. He was selected by the Pirates in the sixth round of the 2017 draft and has been working his way up to the big leagues since then. He posted some really good results in the lower levels, working as a starter at that time, and got some love from prospect evaluators. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in the Bucs’ system in 2020.

Unfortunately, his progress then hit a few snags. He had already missed time with a forearm injury and groin strain before his 2021 season was wiped out entirely by knee surgery. With the pandemic canceling the minors the prior year, that meant he went two whole years without playing in an official game. He returned last year and made 30 Triple-A appearances, 14 of those being starts, tossing 75 2/3 innings in the process. He registered a 3.09 ERA along with a 25.4% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate and 40.6% ground ball rate.

This year, it seems he’s been moved to the bullpen more permanently, as all eight of his appearances for Indianapolis were of the relief variety. He has a 2.38 ERA through 11 1/3 innings so far, with his strikeouts jumping to 31.8% and his walks falling to 4.5%. The Pirates will now give him a chance to see if he can carry those kinds of results over to the major leagues.

As for Heineman, 32 in June, he’s a journeyman catcher who has appeared in 85 major league games dating back to the start of the 2019 season, hitting .210/.276/.269 in that time. He’s suited up for the Marlins, Giants, Blue Jays and Pirates in his career. He got into 52 games for the Bucs last year but was non-tendered after the season and re-signed on a minor league deal. He was selected to the roster a few weeks ago when Austin Hedges went on the concussion-related injured list, getting into three games. He was optioned to the minors when Hedges returned and now loses his 40-man spot. The Bucs will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency since he has a previous career outright.

The Pirates are now fairly thin behind the plate on their roster. Hedges and Jason Delay form the catching duo in the big leagues but the only other backstop on the 40-man is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was recently placed on the minor league injured list with a forearm strain. Given those facts, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them try to retain Heineman or acquire some other depth.

Pirates Extend Bryan Reynolds

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The Pirates have put an end to the Bryan Reynolds trade/extension saga, announcing on Wednesday that they’ve signed the star outfielder through the 2030 season. The seven-year extension reportedly guarantees Reynolds $100MM in new money on top of the $6.75MM he was already earning in 2023, and it also contains a club option for the 2031 campaign. Reynolds, a CAA client, does not have an opt-out provision but does have a limited six-team no-trade clause. The extension is the largest contract in Pirates franchise history.

Reynolds’ $6.75MM salary for the current season will reportedly remain unchanged, but he’ll now receive a $2MM signing bonus as well. Reynolds will then earn salaries of $10MM in 2024, $12MM in 2025, $14MM in 2026 and $15MM per year from 2027-30. The option is valued at $20MM and contains a $2MM buyout. In all, Reynolds is guaranteed seven years and $100MM on top of the $6.75MM he’d already been earning in 2023. The contract buys out his final two seasons of arbitration and locks in five free-agent seasons with an option for a sixth.

One of two players the Pirates acquired in the trade sending the since re-signed Andrew McCutchen to the Giants, Reynolds hit the ground running with the Bucs in his MLB debut back in 2017, batting .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs in 546 plate appearances. With the exception of a dreadful showing in a 55-game sample during the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has continued to hit at a well above-average level. He’s a career .282/.359/.484 hitter in just over 2100 plate appearances, including a .294/.319/.553 start in 2023. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 26% better than a league-average hitter in his career to date.

Moving forward, it seems the Bucs will trot Reynolds out as their primary left fielder, rather than his customary center field. That’s been the case for the majority of the 2023 season, when Reynolds has logged just 35 innings in center compared to 144 innings in left field. Defensive metrics have increasingly soured on Reynolds’ center field work in recent years, and the Pirates have been playing Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae there more frequently in 2023. The early returns on Reynolds’ glovework have been sharp; he’s posted positive ratings in Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.5) and Outs Above Average (1) during his limited work.

The extension for Reynolds marks the culmination of multiple years of trade rumors and a months-long sequence of extension drama that at one point led the outfielder to request a trade. That trade request was not a steadfast declaration that he wanted out of Pittsburgh — clearly — but rather was borne of the fact that Reynolds was seeking a long-term deal that Pirates ownership then appeared simply unwilling to put forth. Mackey reported in February that the Pirates had made a six-year, $76MM offer to Reynolds prior to that trade request; his camp then sought $50-60MM more.

An agreement on these same financial terms was reportedly reached back in spring training, but there were other hold-ups in the deal. At that point, Reynolds had been pushing for an opt-out clause to be included in the contract. It’s a bit surprising that he’d drop that request without the Pirates coming up on their offer, though the inclusion of some limited no-trade protection perhaps provided some extra incentive for Reynolds. Furthermore, the team’s stunning 16-7 start to the season likely only serves to further Reynolds’ belief that the club is headed in the right direction.

All that said, it’s hard not to like this deal for the Pirates. Reynolds’ prior two-year, $13.5MM deal that bought out his first two arbitration seasons effectively signaled that the Bucs viewed his 2022 and 2023 seasons somewhere in the vicinity of $4.5MM and $9MM, respectively. As a Super Two player, he’d have gone through arbitration twice more, earning a pair of raises in the process. It’s not at all unreasonable to think that Reynolds could’ve topped $13MM in 2024 and $17MM in 2025. His final two arb seasons alone were worth close to $30MM (likely a bit more), meaning the five free-agent years on this contract are being valued at roughly $14MM apiece.

Andrew Benintendi just inked a five-year, $75MM deal in free agency, and while he was two years younger than Reynolds would be by the time he’d have reached the market, Reynolds is a decidedly better hitter. The seven years and $100MM in new money secured by Reynolds on this deal is an exact match for the guaranteed portion of Byron Buxton’s deal with the Twins, but Reynolds doesn’t come with any of the durability concerns that have plagued Buxton throughout his career — nor does his contract contain the roughly $8MM of annual incentives in that Buxton deal. Even Corbin Carroll, who’s repped by the same agency as Reynolds and entered the season with just 32 MLB games under his belt, landed an eight-year, $111MM extension from the D-backs during spring training.

Every player’s motivation is quite different, of course, and Reynolds has made clear in the past that his eventual hope was to land a long-term deal that allowed him to remain in Pittsburgh for the long term. He’s done just that, securing a nine-figure guarantee in the process. The extension doesn’t necessarily stack up with what players of his caliber might expect to earn at this juncture of their careers, but Reynolds was clearly willing to compromise in order to remain with the teammates, coaching staff and city he’s come to view as home.

Market context notwithstanding, Reynolds now firmly joins Ke’Bryan Hayes as a foundational piece for the Pirates. The two are the only players signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the current season, and both are under team control through at least 2030. Hayes’ $70MM extension runs through the 2029 season, and Pittsburgh holds a team option for that 2030 season — the final guaranteed year of Reynolds’ new deal.

Reynolds and Hayes will account for $17MM in guaranteed salary next year and for $23MM as far out as the 2029 season. Even for a perennial payroll cellar-dweller like the Pirates, that should leave them with ample room to supplement the roster — particularly if they’re able to convince some of their up-and-coming young talent to agree to club-friendly deals in the same vein as the current pair of extensions they’ve brokered. Talents such as Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras are still quite early in their respective MLB careers, and while both Mitch Keller (three-plus years of MLB service) and David Bednar (two-plus) are further along, both are potential candidates as well. Prospects like Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz could all enter the conversation as they get their feet wet in the Majors as well.

For now, Pirates fans have clear cause to celebrate. The team has sprinted out to a surprising first-place start, and after years of watching the team’s best players inevitably head elsewhere via trade, they can now feel secure that Reynolds will be in black and gold for the foreseeable future.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Robert Murray of FanSided reported the annual breakdown. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Reynolds can block trades to six teams.

Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off

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The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.

As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.

Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.

German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.

After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.

As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.

While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.

The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.

Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.

As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.

Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.

Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.

Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.

Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.

Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging.  He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.

Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.

Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.

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It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.

Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.

Pirates Select Drew Maggi

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The Pirates announced today that they have selected the contract of infielder Drew Maggi following the placement of outfielder Bryan Reynolds on the bereavement list. To clear space on the 40-man roster, first baseman Ji Man Choi was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Reynolds has been off to a hot start this season, slashing .294/.319/.553 (125 wRC+) in 22 games this season amid rumors of extension negotiations that have spilled into the season. All that will be put on hold, of course, while Reynolds is away from the team. Players on the bereavement list can miss a minimum of three games and a maximum of seven games, meaning Reynolds can return at the earliest against the Dodgers on April 27 and at the latest against the Rays on May 2.

Choi’s transfer to the 60-day IL comes as little surprise after the Pirates announced that the first baseman would miss about two months with a strained Achilles tendon. Choi, 32 in May, struggled to open his Pirates career prior to the injury, slashing just .125/.125/.344 (16 wRC+) in nine games with 15 strikeouts in just 32 plate appearances. Prior to this season, Choi has long been a solid, consistent bat at the big league level, with a career 114 wRC+ and a 120 wRC+ as a member of the Rays from 2018-2022. Choi was acquired from the Rays by the Pirates ahead of the non-tender deadline this past November in exchange for right-hander Jack Hartman.

Maggi, 34 next month, is a journeyman who has yet to make his major league debut. Drafted by the Pirates in the fifteenth round of the 2010 draft, Maggi has since played in thirteen seasons in the minors for six different organizations, with a .254/.355/.378 slash line in 494 games at the Triple-A level. Maggi has experience at all four infield spots, both outfield corners, and has even pitched two innings during his minor league career. That Maggi is now set to get a big league opportunity after over a decade in the minors is certainly a heartwarming moment, and the Pirates shared a video of him receiving the news this morning.

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