Pittsburgh’s Second Base Camp Battle
With Spring Training’s arrival, the next few weeks will feature a number of camp battles around the league. One position that could be up for grabs before Opening Day: the second base job in Pittsburgh. The Bucs used eight players at the position a year ago. Four of them remain on the roster and could vie for time at the team’s most uncertain infield spot.
Peguero, 23, got his first extended MLB run last year. He appeared in 59 games and tallied 213 trips to the plate. Peguero didn’t produce much, hitting .237/.280/.374 with dismal strikeout and walk rates (5.2% and 31.5%, respectively). It’s not all that surprising that he had a rough go against MLB pitching. Peguero only appeared in seven Triple-A games before being called to the majors. He had spent the majority of the season’s first half at Double-A Altoona, where he turned in a .260/.333/.453 showing with 11 homers, 19 steals, and a solid 10.1% walk rate against an 18.2% strikeout percentage.
Scouting reports on Peguero have credited him with a well-rounded physical toolset but raised questions about his strike zone judgment. He showed excellent speed in his MLB time but didn’t put things together consistently on either side of the ball.
Pittsburgh selected Gonzales, a New Mexico State product, with the #7 overall pick in 2020. He has drawn plenty of walks while hitting for power in the minors but hasn’t consistently made contact. That concern carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Gonzales hit .209/.268/.348 with a 28.1% strikeout rate across his first 35 big league contests.
The 24-year-old was a lot more productive with Triple-A Indianapolis. Gonzales hit .281/.379/.507 with 14 homers in 443 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He drew free passes at a 12% clip and hit for power, but a .369 average on balls in play masks a near-27% strikeout percentage. Gonzales isn’t regarded as a great defender, so he’ll have to take a notable step forward in his pure contact skills. Baseball America ranked him the #9 prospect in the Pittsburgh system this offseason.
Last year’s team leader in playing time at second base, Bae also had a tough rookie season. He hit .231/.296/.311 in 371 plate appearances. Unlike Peguero and Gonzales, Bae had roughly average plate discipline and contact metrics. His issue was a complete lack of power. He only homered twice with 17 doubles and a pair of triples. Nearly three-fifths of his batted balls were hit on the ground.
Bae is a plus-plus runner and stole 24 bases a year ago. He’ll need to contribute more offensively if he’s to play more than a bench role. Defensive metrics gave the 24-year-old below-average marks for his work at second base. The Pirates also gave him a fair bit of center field run and could use him in a utility capacity.
Of this group, Triolo had easily the best results against MLB pitching. The Houston product put up a .298/.388/.398 line over his first 209 plate appearances. He’d need to dramatically improve his contact rate if he’s to sustain anything like that production over a full season, though. No hitter can maintain anything like the .440 batting average on balls in play that Triolo posted last year. (Freddie Freeman led qualified batters with a .370 BABIP in 2023.) In order to offset the inevitable regression from a batted ball perspective, Triolo will need to cut a strikeout rate that sat above 30%.
While he’s clearly not a finished product, Triolo isn’t without promise. He had a strong minor league track record, including a .286/.412/.432 slash in Triple-A last season. He came up as a third baseman but doesn’t have a path to playing time at his natural position thanks to Ke’Bryan Hayes. Prospect evaluators raved about his glove at the hot corner in the minors. If he can carry that to multiple infield positions, he could compete for second base reps.
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It’s likely one of that quartet will get the bulk of the second base time in 2024, although there’s some chance the mix changes before Opening Day. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey has suggested the Bucs could dangle someone from the group in talks with the Marlins about right-hander Edward Cabrera. It’s far from a guarantee that any deal with Miami will get across the finish line, but the front office is still evaluating ways to add rotation help in some capacity before Opening Day.
Beyond this group, the Bucs have two other second basemen on the 40-man roster. Prospect Tsung-Che Cheng hasn’t played above Double-A and might not factor in until 2025. Alika Williams got to the big leagues last year but likely didn’t hit well enough (.198/.270/.248) to compete for the second base job. He played exclusively shortstop last year when Oneil Cruz was injured but could handle second base defensively. Williams’ bat is very light, pointing to a likelier future as a glove-first utility type than a regular.
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.
Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright‘s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
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Cardinals 29% (3,702)
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Reds 24% (3,092)
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Cubs 21% (2,756)
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Brewers 18% (2,301)
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Pirates 8% (1,045)
Total votes: 12,896
Pirates Extend Mitch Keller
The Pirates announced that they have signed right-hander Mitch Keller to five-year contract extension. The deal was previously-reported by Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’s a $77MM guarantee for the 27-year-old righty, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that the new contract includes the 2024 campaign and runs through 2028. The Tidal Sports Group client had previously been slated to reach free agency following the 2025 campaign.
Keller had already agreed to a one-year, $5.4425MM deal for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. As such, he’ll be guaranteed four years and $71.5575MM in new money. The Associated Press reports the financial breakdown. While Keller’s salary for 2024 is unchanged, he also collects a $2.0575MM signing bonus. He’ll make $15MM in 2025, $16.5MM in ’26, $18MM in ’27 and $20MM in 2028.
That aligns closely with the four-year, $73.5MM extension between the Twins and Pablo Lopez a year ago. Lopez, like Keller now, had between four and five years of big league service at the time of the agreement. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows several other comps of note, including Kyle Freeland‘s five-year, $64.5MM deal with the Rockies.
A 2014 second-round pick and longtime top prospect, Keller has taken major steps forward over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 4.08 ERA in 353 1/3 innings. That solid but unspectacular ERA masks some more promising underlying trends. Keller’s 2022 season took off when he added a sinker to his arsenal in mid-May, helping to take some pressure off what had been a rather hittable four-seam fastball. He was dominant for the first two-thirds of the 2023 season before stumbling with a handful of meltdown starts over the final couple months as he pitched to a new career-high workload (194 1/3 frames).
That ugly start in 2022 and similarly rocky finish in 2023 bookend a stretch of 41 starts that underscore the upside the Pirates are chasing with this signing. At his best from ’22-’23, Keller rattled off a stretch of 240 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball, fanning 23.5% of his opponents against a sharp 7.9% walk rate and strong 48.4% ground-ball rate. And even with the tough finish to his 2023 campaign, Keller ended the year with career-best marks in strikeout rate (25.5%), walk rate (6.7%), average exit velocity (87.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.6%). There are plenty of arrows pointing up with regard to the 6’2″, 220-pound righty, and the Bucs surely view him as someone capable of that low-3.00s ERA who can team with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes to anchor the rotation moving forward.
Skenes figures to debut this summer, and the Keller extension gives the organization a chance at a dynamic one-two punch atop the staff for the foreseeable future. For the 2024 season, the Bucs’ rotation will also include veterans Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, though neither lefty is guaranteed anything beyond the current campaign. (Gonzales has a $15MM club option with no buyout.)
The Pirates’ ability to either develop or acquire sufficient rotation help beyond the ’24 season will be critical to their chances of reversing a nearly decade-long run of losing baseball at PNC Park. Prospects like Quinn Priester, Kyle Nicolas, Jackson Wolf, Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler give the Pirates a solid stock of promising young arms alongside Skenes. Each of Skenes, Jones and Chandler has garnered some top-100 fanfare this season (as Priester has in the past).
Of course, the Pirates’ history of developing starting pitching has been suspect, at best. Much of the struggles came under the now-former front office regime, but we’ve seen touted talents like Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove all struggle to reach their ceilings with the Bucs before being traded. Cole, Glasnow and Musgrove, in particular, broke out with their new clubs. Even Keller took a long road to reach the form that led to today’s five-year agreement. It’ll be imperative for the Pirates that they improve their development of young pitchers and/or find help outside the organization. Notably, they’ve been in constant contact with the Marlins about Miami’s bevy of young pitchers and have explored other trade possibilities as well.
Keller joins outfielder Bryan Reynolds and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes as core pieces the Pirates have signed to long-term deals over the past few years. It’s a breath of fresh air for Bucs fans who’d grown accustomed to seeing their best players traded as their arbitration prices escalated. The long-term deals signed by each player don’t necessarily preclude eventual trades — as evidenced by Andrew McCutchen — but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend for Pittsburgh fans to see a trio of extensions that each top $70MM in guaranteed money, considering their $60MM extension with Jason Kendall back in 2000 stood as the richest in franchise history for upwards of two decades.
Each of Keller, Reynolds and Hayes are now signed through at least the 2028 season — the same year that the team’s control windows over shortstop Oneil Cruz and outfielder Jack Suwinski extend. That quintet, paired with Skenes and catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, could form the nucleus of the Pirates’ next contending club. Reynolds’ seven-year, $100MM extension and Hayes’ eight-year, $70MM pact are both generally affordable, even by the Pirates’ modest standards, which should give the Bucs flexibility to supplement that core in other ways.
It’s unlikely the Pirates ever dive into the deep end of the free agent market. But if owner Bob Nutting ever decides he’s finally comfortable spending in even the second tiers of the open market — Francisco Liriano‘s three-year, $39MM contract is the largest free agent signing in Pirates history — the Pirates would have the chance to complement their growing foundation with some meaningful talent and break away from their lengthy run near or at the bottom of the NL Central.
Pirates Claim Canaan Smith-Njigba From Mariners
The Pirates have claimed Canaan Smith-Njigba off waivers from the Mariners, per announcements from both clubs. The outfielder was designated for assignment by the M’s on the weekend. The Pirates placed right-hander JT Brubaker on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move.
Smith-Njigba, 25 in April, returns to the Pirates after a brief uncoupling. He originally joined the club in the January 2021 trade that sent Jameson Taillon to the Yankees and was with the Bucs for about three years before being designated for assignment last month. He was claimed off waivers by the Mariners about two weeks ago, which briefly had him employed in the same city as his brother, Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks. But the Mariners bumped Canaan off the roster when they claimed Levi Stoudt over the weekend.
The Bucs needed Smith-Njigba’s roster spot a couple of weeks ago to add Aroldis Chapman. At the time, the 60-day IL had not yet opened, as clubs can’t use it between the end of the World Series and the time when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Now that they do have access to the 60-day IL, they were able to move Brubaker there and fit Smith-Njigba back onto the roster. Brubaker had Tommy John surgery in April of last year and it appears the club isn’t expecting him back soon. The “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, so he won’t be eligible to return until late May.
If Smith-Njigba can stick on the Pirates’ roster this time, he’s likely to serve a depth role for the club this year. He’s hit just .135/.250/.243 in his 44 major league plate appearances thus far but still has an option remaining. He’s hit .279/.373/.452 in Triple-A over the past two years, leading to a 112 wRC+. He also stole 29 bases in those 157 games while playing all three outfield slots.
The Bucs are slated to have Bryan Reynolds in left and Jack Suwinski in center, but right field is a little bit more open. Players like Joshua Palacios, Edward Olivares, Connor Joe and Ji Hwan Bae are candidates to take some outfield playing time but Smith-Njigba will be in that mix as well, along with non-roster players like Billy McKinney and Gilberto Celestino. The designated hitter spot is likely to be taken by Andrew McCutchen on most days.
NL Notes: Grichuk, D’Backs, Kiermaier, Keller, Lodolo
Randal Grichuk underwent surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his ankle, so the newest member of the Diamondbacks roster might not be ready to make his Arizona debut by the very start of the season. “It’s one of those things where there’s a good chance I’ll be ready for Opening Day and if not, it’s a week. In the grand scheme of things, big picture, it’s nothing to worry about,” Grichuk told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Obviously the D’Backs weren’t concerned enough to back away from their $2MM deal with the veteran outfielder, and Grichuk could possibly be used as a designated hitter at first until he is fully ready for outfield work.
As to what the D’Backs might have left on their shopping list after a busy offseason, GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that “I think building out relief depth is probably something that we’re talking about. Pitching in general…I think from a position player standpoint, we’re probably in a spot where it’s less likely to see a clear opportunity for somebody. But we still have competitions underneath the starting roles. So we’ll see where that takes us.”
More from the National League….
- The Padres, Twins, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Kevin Kiermaier‘s market before the outfielder re-signed with the Blue Jays, but Kiermaier told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that the Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants also had interest. Kiermaier and his family’s love of Toronto and his Jays teammates ultimately sealed his return to the Blue Jays, though it’s interesting to speculate how the four-time Gold Glover might’ve fit into his other suitors’ plans. Adding Kiermaier would’ve given the Cubs some flexibility if Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t ready for a starting role just yet, while depending on the timing, the Dodgers might not have re-signed Jason Heyward if Kiermaier had instead been added to the fold. Signing Kiermaier likely wouldn’t have prevented the Giants from signing Jung Hoo Lee, though Lee might’ve been ticketed for more time as a corner outfielder than in center.
- The Pirates and Mitch Keller had several discussions about a contract extension last season, and Keller is “really looking forward” to a fresh set of negotiations this spring. “Going through arbitration and stuff, [the two sides are] obviously talking. Hopefully it’ll pick up, and we’ll get something going,” Keller told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Keller is under arbitration control through the 2025 season, and the right-hander has emerged as the de facto ace of the Pirates’ rotation over the last two seasons.
- Left-hander Nick Lodolo has already been at the Reds‘ spring camp for a month, as Lodolo has been getting in extra work in the aftermath of an injury-marred 2023 season. Lodolo tossed 34 1/3 innings over seven starts before suffering a stress fracture in his left tibia in May, and he made only three minor league appearances before being shut down in late August. Lodolo told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he isn’t feeling any pain in his left leg, and though he isn’t up to feeling exactly normal just yet, Lodolo and manager David Bell are hopeful the pitcher can be ready to be part of the Opening Day roster. “Health will be the top priority,” Bell said. “So if we don’t feel great about it, we could always just delay it, making sure that he’s fully healthy. He’s in a place that he could catch up and be on time for the season.”
Pirates Sign Chase Anderson To Minor League Deal
The Pirates have signed Chase Anderson to a minors contract, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link). The veteran right-hander will receive an invitation to Pittsburgh’s big league Spring Training camp.
Anderson pitched for three different organizations in 2023, beginning when he signed a minor league deal with the Reds last offseason. Cincinnati traded Anderson to Tampa in May before he could enact an out clause in his contract (since hadn’t yet been placed on the active roster), and Anderson made two relief appearances for the Rays before he was designated for assignment and then claimed off waivers by the pitching-needy Rockies.
The result was a 5.42 ERA over 86 1/3 innings in 2023, with all but five of those frames coming in a Rox uniform for the right-hander. Anderson didn’t provide much in the way of results for Colorado and he missed around six weeks due to shoulder inflammation, but he at least ate some innings for a Rockies team desperate to find any healthy starters for any period of time.
The Pirates’ pitching situation isn’t as dire as Colorado’s, yet the Bucs are heading into 2024 with a lot of questions in their rotation. Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales were acquired as bounce-back candidates, joining Mitch Keller and a host of younger and more unproven rotation candidates. Rumors continue to swirl that Pittsburgh might yet bolster its rotation with a more higher-profile starter, but adding a veteran depth starter like Anderson is standard operation procedure for any team heading into Spring Training.
As he enters his age-36 season, Anderson is getting further and further away from his prime years with the Diamondbacks and Brewers. Anderson posted a solid 3.94 ERA over 857 innings (starting 160 of 166 games) from 2014-19, but the last four years have been a major struggle. Since the start of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Anderson has only a 6.19 ERA in 192 innings for five different teams at the Major League level. Should he appear in a big league game with his new team, the Pirates will be the eighth different club of Anderson’s 11 MLB seasons.
MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants to sign Jorge Soler (1:25)
- The Brewers to sign Gary Sánchez (11:15)
- The Pirates to sign Yasmani Grandal (18:55)
- The Padres to sign Jurickson Profar (23:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
- Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
- Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency
The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.
Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.
Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.
Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).
Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.
Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.
If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.
Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.
Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.
Pirates Sign Josh Fleming
11:12am: The Pirates have announced the signing of Fleming and also confirmed their previously reported one-year deal with veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal. In order to create roster space, right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodriguez were both placed on the 60-day injured list. Both are expected to miss the 2024 season after requiring surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in their respective throwing elbows.
8:45am: The Pirates and lefty Josh Fleming are in agreement on a split major league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Republik Sports client will earn $850K if he’s in the big leagues. Pittsburgh will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Fleming to make the contract official.
While Fleming’s deal is a split contract, meaning it comes with different rates of pay in the big leagues and in Triple-A, he’s out of minor league options as well. The minor league salary will only come into play in the event that the Pirates remove him from the 40-man roster and pass him through waivers. At that point, Fleming could reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, but doing so would require forfeiting the rates of pay on his deal with the Pirates, and he’d be no lock to secure more favorable terms in free agency. As such, he’d likely accept a minor league assignment if that scenario presents itself.
The 27-year-old Fleming pitched for the Rays in each of the past four seasons, working out of both the bullpen and the starting rotation at times. He also operated as a bulk reliever following an opener in Tampa Bay at times. The southpaw has just 2.144 years of Major League service time and can thus be controlled for another four seasons.
Fleming has, at times, looked like a quality fifth starter or swingman. He pitched 51 2/3 innings with the Rays in 2023 and logged a 4.70 ERA with a career-low 11.8% strikeout rate with an 8.6% walk rate while dealing with elbow inflammation. Back in 2020, he made his MLB debut with 32 1/3 innings of 2.78 ERA ball. Overall, Fleming has 223 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 4.88 ERA, 14.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% ground-ball rate and a huge 59% grounder rate. The Pirates, per Murray, view him as a long reliever and occasional spot starter.
Although he’s split his time fairly evenly between the bullpen and rotation in the big leagues, Fleming has been far more effective as a reliever (3.73 ERA) than as a starter (6.10 ERA). Right-handed opponents have been a challenge in particular; he’s yielded a .288/.351/.451 slash to opponents who hold the platoon advantage over him.
By the Pirates’ standards, it’s been an active season in free agency. They haven’t handed out any multi-year deals — a common theme throughout Ben Cherington’s time as general manager — but have agreed to one-year pacts with Aroldis Chapman ($10.5MM), Martin Perez ($8MM), Andrew McCutchen ($5MM), Rowdy Tellez ($3.2MM) and Yasmani Grandal ($2.5MM). Pittsburgh also picked up veteran lefty Marco Gonzales in a trade, and he’ll join Perez in filling out the rotation behind Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh has been seeking additional rotation arms, and while Fleming gives them a potential spot starter, he’s unlikely to be penciled in as a full-time rotation member from day one. Further additions to the starting staff, whether via trade or free agency, still seem likely for the Bucs.
Pirates Sign Connor Sadzeck To Minor League Deal
The Pirates announced today that three right-handers have been added to their camp as non-roster invitees, indicating they have signed minor league deals with the club. Two of them, Wily Peralta and Brent Honeywell Jr., were previously reported. The third was for Connor Sadzeck, a client of Frontline.
Sadzeck, 32, spent the 2023 season in the Twins’ organization after signing a minor league deal with that club. He tossed 35 innings over 25 Triple-A appearances, allowing 5.40 earned runs per nine frames. His 24.6% strikeout rate was quite strong but his 15.2% walk rate was untenably high.
That has generally been the recipe with the righty, who features a four-seamer and sinker that each have mid-to-high 90s velocity, as well as a slider in the high 80s and the occasional changeup. But as is often the case for pitchers with that kind of power arsenal, control is an ongoing concern.
He has 36 innings of scattered major league experience, having pitched for the Rangers, Mariners and Brewers dating back to his 2018 debut. He has walked 16.4% of major league hitters he has faced, though the baseball gods have helped him keep them from scoring. He has a 2.75 ERA in that small sample of big league work, thanks in part to a .245 batting average on balls in play and 84.3% strand rate. His larger Triple-A résumé now consists of 166 2/3 innings over four separate campaigns. He has a ERA of 4.00 in that time, striking out 25.6% of batters faced but also giving free passes to 12.1% of them.
For the Pirates, there’s no risk in bringing him into camp to get a close-up look at the stuff, while seeing if he can better harness his arsenal throughout the year. All clubs need depth arms throughout the season and the Bucs may be likelier than some others to reach into their minor leagues. They have David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman set to be the high-leverage arms in their bullpen but things are a bit flimsy beyond that as Ryan Borucki is the only other reliever on the roster with more than two years of service time. Guys like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and José Hernández have some intriguing numbers but are still fairly light on experience.
To add some non-roster depth, the club has signed guys like Peralta, Honeywell and Sadzeck, as well as Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan. If Sadzeck is added to the roster at any point, he is out of options but has just over a year of service time.